bluebooks · May 23, 1983

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

May 20,

Strictly Confidential (FR)

1983

Class I FOMC

MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

May 20, 1983

MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Recent developments (1)

In April M2 grew slowly--at about a 3 percent annual rate--

held down in part by enlarged shifts to IRA and Keogh accounts in advance of the April tax date.

M2 growth is picking up in May, but expansion to

date appears still to be falling short of a pace consistent with the 9 percent rate from March to June expected by the Committee.

Growth in MMDAs

has slowed further in recent weeks--though not quite to the rate expected at the time of previous FOMC meetings--and appears to have added about 1 percentage points or so to M2 growth in April and May.

M3 behavior

generally has paralleled that of M2--with growth relatively slow in April and picking up, though less sharply, in May--and its expansion for the

quarter to date seems to be below the 8 percent annual rate indicated by the Committee for the second quarter. (2)

M1 declined at a 3 percent annual rate in April; however,

data for early May indicate a very sharp rebound in growth of this

aggregate.

The uneven pattern of growth may be attributable in some part

to problems with seasonal factors, but examination of seasonally unadjusted data for early May suggest unusual strength in the month in any event. For April and May combined, M1 growth appears as if it may be running about 4 percentage points above the 6 to 7 percent annual rate of growth from March to June that the FOMC thought was consistent with its expectations for the broader aggregates. (3)

Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors is estimated on the

basis of preliminary data to have grown

at about a 9½ percent annual rate

in April, about the same as the rate of advance from December to March.

The

KEY MONETARY POLICY AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth)

1983 Mayl, Proj.-

Estimated Growth to May From base for longer-run ranges2/ From Mar.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

9.8

22.4

15.9

-3.1

24.2

10.5

13.8

29.8

24.0

11.1

3.1

10.0

6.4

7.5

12.0

13.3

8.2

4.5

7.3

5.7

8.6

9.6

9.5

9.4

12.8

7.6

11.2

8.7

9.7

-17.5

8.8

14.7

5.2

5.6

5.4

4.6

-19.5

6.6

19.7

8.8

-2.2

3.3

4.2

4.7

11.4

15.0

6.9

10.5

8.7

9.7

372

304

474

598

398 -

548

435

433

477

470

Money and Credit Aggregates

Domestic Nonfinancial Debt Bank Credit

Reserve Measures-4/ Nonborrowed reserves-/

otal reserves Monetary base Memo: (Millions of dollars) Adjustment and seasonal borrowing Excess reserves

6/ 6/

1/ Projections based on data available through May 18. 2/ The base for M1, M3, and reserves is QIV '82, for M2 is February-March 1983, and for the domestic nonfinancial debt December '82. 3/ Through April only. 4/ Growth rates of reserve measures are adjusted to remove the effects of discontinuities resulting from phased changes in reserve ratios under the Monetary Control Act. Includes special borrowing and other extended credit from the Federal Reserve. 5/ 6/ For first three statement weeks ending in May.

latest estimate places this debt measure a bit below the midpoint of the FOMC's 8½ to 11½ percent annual range.

In addition to continued heavy

borrowing by the federal government, tax-exempt financing and mortgage formation have been strong so far this year and consumer installment borrowing has picked up as well.

Nonfinancial businesses also have issued

a substantial volume of long-term debt, but this has been partly offset by weakness in short-term business borrowing in the commercial paper market and at banks.

Total bank credit growth in April was at an 8¾ per-

cent annual rate, somewhat below the first quarter pace; business loans declined in April and at large banks have remained weak in early May, but banks have continued to acquire large amounts of Treasury securities. (4)

After the abatement of statement date pressures at the

end of the first quarter, restraint on bank reserve positions has been associated with a federal funds rate generally in an 8½ to 8¾ percent area.

The level of borrowing since the last meeting has averaged higher

than the $250 million set for reserve path purposes at the last Committee meeting, mainly because of distortions around the end-of-quarter statement date and special influences in two other weeks.

Excess reserves have con-

tinued to be volatile and to run relatively high on average.

With demand

for required reserves slowing in lagged response to a weakness in transactions deposits over much of March and through April, growth in the various aggregate reserve measures has slowed in April and May relative to the previous two months.

The growth rate of the monetary base has, however,

accelerated in May along with renewed strengthening of currency growth. (5)

Since the last Committee meeting, short-term rates have

declined ¼ to ½ of a percentage point, while bond rates have shown mixed

changes.

Rates had fallen considerably in the first few weeks of the inter-

meeting period, as the market reacted to weak money supply figures in April and to renewed expectations of a discount rate cut in the not-too-distant future.

However, most recently rates have backed up, as strong incoming

economic data and signs of renewed rapid growth in M1 caused hopes for a near-term discount rate cut to fade.

Spurred by lower interest rates and

improved prospects for economic growth, stock prices reached new record levels in May, although most recently they have eased off with the backup in interest rates. (6)

The dollar is essentially unchanged on a weighted average

basis since the March FOMC meeting, despite the modest decline in U.S. short-term interest rates relative to a weighted average of foreign rates. The dollar depreciated substantially against sterling and by a lesser amount against the yen,

but these declines were offset by an increase

against the mark and other EMS currencies.

Long-term targets (7)

In establishing its long-term growth ranges

for the

aggregates for 1983, the Committee indicated that the ranges for M1 and M2 would be "reviewed in the spring and altered, if appropriate, in the light of evidence at that time."

Economic issues with respect to M1

would appear to involve mainly whether its velocity--or, expressed otherwise, the demand for money--is becoming more predictable and consistent with past history.

A principal issue raised by the Committee's targeting

procedure for M2 would appear to -revolve around whether the bulk of shifts associated with introduction of MMDAs is indeed behind us, as was expected in establishing both the February-March base and the 7 to 10 percent range covering the period from that base to QIV '83 (a range that assumed that growth would be boosted over that period by only about 1 percentage point or so at an annual rate from further shifting to MMDAs from non-M2 sources). (8)

The staff has employed a variety of econometric tests, in-

cluding experimentation with new money demand models, in an effort to evaluate the recent behavior of Ml, particularly since late 1981--as is explained in some detail in the paper circulated with this blue book.

brief, the results suggest that there has been a noticeable increase in the responsiveness of M1 to changes in open market yields, with the implication that in a period of declining short-term interest rates Ml could be expected to grow more rapidly than had previously been the case (given income)--as, of course, took place in the latter part of 1982 and early 1983.

The apparent increase in interest sensitivity of M1 recently seems

to be associated at least in part with the growing importance over the

-6last couple of years of fixed ceiling-rate NOW accounts--which have both savings and transaction characteristics--as a component of Ml. (9)

Thus, the most recent staff research supports the view that

the strong growth of M1 in late 1982 and early 1983 can be explained in large measure by lagged responses to the decline in short-term market rates that began last summer.

That lagged effect is virtually dissipated

by now, and, assuming little further change in short-term interest rates, demand for M1 over the balance of the year would therefore depend mainly on its responsiveness (for both transaction and savings purposes) to income growth.

Our present estimates suggest that M1 growth over the

balance of the year, given projected GNP, would slow markedly from its pace over the first five months of the year, but that the odds are fairly high that the slowing will still leave M1 by year-end somewhat above the upper end of its present longer-run range. (10)

A number of uncertainties make such a conclusion no more

than tentative at this point, however--and indeed make it likely that assessment of M1 behavior may be little further advanced by July, when the FOMC's full-scale mid-year review of monetary and credit aggregates is scheduled.

First, experience with nationwide NOW accounts has been limited,

so that estimates of interest- and income-elasticities should be construed as having a wider-than-usual margin of error around them.

Moreover, they

may be distorted by inability to allow precisely for one-time transitional effects on money demand from the public's and depository institutions' responses to availability of new instruments.

Second, the apparent higher

interest-elasticity of recent years may, in any event, be in process of reversing.

As super-NOWs become more prevalent, and over the longer term

as regular NOWs are deregulated, deposit rates will move more closely in

line with market rates, thereby likely reducing the response of moneyholders to changes in market rates.

Thus, it would seem that, while the

period of sharp decline in the income velocity of M1 may be behind us, the behavior of M1 velocity over the balance of the year still is subject to considerable uncertainty--as it also may well be over longer periods. (11)

With regard to the longer-run range for M2, the recent

behavior of MMDAs is consistent with the assumption used in setting the range that the bulk of shifts from non-M2 sources into M2 would be completed by March.

The average weekly growth in MMDAs declined from $33 billion in

January to $17 billion in February and $8 billion in March. the end of March has averaged less than $4 billion per week.

Growth since Some further

deceleration from this pace can in all likelihood be expected, and thus we would see little reason to alter the earlier assumption about the modest impact of MMDA growth on M2 over the long-run target period.

Moreover, since

March, growth in the nontransactions component of M2 as a whole has been generally moderate, even after rough allowance for shifts in April out of M2 deposits into IRA-Keogh accounts.

In general, there is little in the

statistical evidence to date to suggest that the longer-run M2 range needs modification--though M2 is currently running lower relative to the range than had earlier been expected in part because of large shifts into IRAKeogh accounts.

Policy alternatives for the short run (12)

The table below shows, in the top two panels, alternative

specifications for the monetary aggregates and the federal funds rate for the upcoming intermeeting period.

The third panel indicates the implied

growth from March to June of these alternatives.

(More detailed data for

the alternatives, including their relation to the longer-run ranges, are shown in the charts and table

on the following pages.

The quarterly

interest rate path consistent with the staff's GNP projection is shown in Appendix I). Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Growth from April to June M2 M3 M1

9 7 15½

9 6½ 14½

8½ 6 13½

Federal funds rate range

5 to 9

6 to 10

7 to 11

Implied March to June growth

M2 M3

7½ 6¼

7 5¾

6¾ 5½

9¼

8½

(13)

As may be seen from the lower panel of the table, all of

the alternatives indicate that M2 and M3 over the second quarter would run

below the annual growth rates of 9 and 8 percent, respectively, expected by the Committee at its previous meeting.

It should be pointed out, though,

that about one-half percentage point of the weakness of M2 and M3 growth over the second quarter relative to earlier March-to-June expectations may be attributed to unexpectedly large shifts of funds into IRA-Keogh accounts in April prior to the tax date.

There are only small differences in growth

rates shown among the alternatives because of the limited time remaining

1 Actual and Targeted M2 Chart

CONFIDENTIAL (FR, Class FOMC

M2 -

Billions of dollars 12220

ACTUAL LEVEL ® PROJECTION SSHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES

100%

2180

2140

2100

2060

2020

1980

ND D

1982

F F

A M J J A A

1983

FI F

1984

1940

1900

1860 M

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II FOMC

Chart 2

Actual and Targeted M3

Billions of dollars 12650 -

ACTUAL LEVEL ® *

PROJECTION SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES 9 V2 %

2600

2550

--- 2500

2450

I N 1982

I M

I J

J 1983

II A

I D

2400

2350

2300

F 1984

Chart 3

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II

Actual and Targeted M1

FOMC

Billions of dollars 1550 -

ACTUAL LEVEL ) PROJECTION *

SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES

D 1982

J J 1983

F 1984

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

2008.1 2048.2 2067.2

2401.4 2428.1 2444.6

482.1 491.1 497.6

2072.6 2089.9 2105.4

2072.6 2089.9 2103.7

2072.6 2089.9 2102.0

2453.7 2468.6 2482.3

2453.7 2468.6 2480.3

2453.7 2468.6 2478.2

496.3 506.3 509.1

496.3 506.3 508.3

496.3 506.3 507.5

29.8 24.0 11.1

12.0 13.3 8.2

9.8 22.4 15.9

3.1 10.0 9.0

3.1 10.0 7.9

3.1 10.0 6.9

4.5 7.3 6.7

4.5 7.3 5.7

4.5 7.3 4.7

-3.1 24.2 6.6

-3.1 24.2 4.7

-3.1 24.2 2.8

7.4 9.5

7.1 9.0

6.7 8.5

6.2 7.0

5.8 6.5

5.5 6.0

9.2 15.5

8.6 14.5

8.0 13.5

1982--Ql Q2 Q3 Q4

8.7 7.0 10.9 9.3

8.6 8.5 12.5 9.5

8.6

8.5 12.5 9.5

8.6 8.5 12.5 9.5

10.5 3.2 6.1 13.1

1983--Ql

19.8 9.4

19.8 9.3

19.8 9.2

9.8 7.2

7.1

9.8 6.9

14.1 11.1

14.1 10.9

14.1 10.7

1983--January February March April May June Growth Rates Monthly 1983--January February March April May June March to June April to June Growth Rates Quarterly Average

9.8

-10in the second quarter, the relatively low interest-elasticity of the broad aggregates, and the comparatively modest interest rate differences

assumed across the alternatives.

With regard to M1, the alternatives

indicate a more rapid growth in that aggregate over the second quarter than the 6 to 7 percent anticipated earlier, given the unexpected surge

in May. (14)

While estimates of the relationship between the aggregates

and bank reserve positions are subject to considerable uncertainty, the money supply specifications of alternative B are expected to be consistent with little change in the current degree of restraint on bank reserve positions--that is, with borrowing at the discount window fluctuating around $250 million, associated with a federal funds rate generally just above the current 8½ percent discount rate.

Nonborrowed reserves in June

would be expected to expand at about a 9 percent annual rate, and total reserves by about 6 percent. (15)

Under alternative B, there is little reason to believe

that interest rates in general would change much from current levels, given the recent back-up in interest rates.

The 3-month Treasury bill rate

would probably trade in the vicinity of 8¼ percent.

The bond market is

likely to remain able to absorb a large supply of corporate, tax exempt, and Treasury offerings at around present rate levels, although those rates could come under upward pressure should signs of more vigorous economic recovery emerge, particularly if doubts intensified about prospects for fiscal restraint. stabilize.

After edging down recently mortgage rates may tend to

The total debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors is expected to

increase at about a 9 to 9½ percent annual rate over the second quarter--

-11little different from the first--as federal government credit demands remain large and private credit demands stay moderate. (16)

The staff does not expect the bulge in M1 growth in May to

presage continued rapid growth in double digits in June or the months beyond.

Both our (refurbished) quarterly and monthly money demand models

would project expansion in a 6 to 7 percent annual rate area at around current interest rates, given projected GNP.

M1 growth in June seems

likely to be in that area, or perhaps lower considering the unwinding of special influences that may be inflating growth in May--such as seasonal adjustment problems and possible effects from an unusually sharp decline in the Treasury balance after the first week of May.

Given the moderate

June growth expected under alternative B, M1 on a quarterly average basis would expand at about an 11 percent annual rate, which would imply a 2 percent decline in its income velocity--a much smaller decline than in the first quarter but still in sharp contrast to the increases that have usually been registered in the early stages of business cycle upturns. (17)

M2 growth under alternative B is anticipated to be around

a 9 percent annual rate over May and June on average.

Growth in the non-

transactions component of that aggregate is expected to pick up, after having been depressed in April by IRA-Keogh transfers.

Growth in M3 is

likely to be held down by CD run-offs at banks, as loan demand--particularly from businesses--remains soft, and by declines in the assets of institution-only money market funds, though at a slower pace than in recent months. (18)

Alternative A envisions an easing in bank reserve positions

that would help move the broader aggregates more in the direction of the short-run path expected at the last Committee meeting, but at the same time

-12would probably cause M1 to move even further above the Committee's previously held expectations for the second quarter.

The alternative

envisions a drop in borrowing to near minimal levels--perhaps $100 million, which would bring the federal funds rate down to around 8 percent.

similar easing of money market conditions could be attained with a drop in the discount rate to 8 percent, and borrowing to about $200 million. (19)

The approach of alternative A, particularly if it also

involved a cut in the discount rate, could lead to fairly sizable declines in short-term interest rates, partly because it would tend to confirm that the Committee was discounting the recent behavior of M1.

A 3-month bill

rate around 7½-7¾ percent might be anticipated, and the prime loan rate should come down another notch.

A moderate decline in long-term rates is

also probable. There is a possibility, though, of some adverse effect on long-run inflation expectations, given the recent strong economic and monetary data--which would have a negative impact on bond markets.

foreign exchange markets, a drop in short rates here would help reverse the rise in the dollar of recent days, but it is doubtful that the dollar

would drop very substantially, given the continuing attractiveness of dollar assets and the probability of some easing action by foreign central banks. (20)

Over the longer run, looking toward the year as a whole,

alternative A would, with greater probability, involve M1 growth above the FOMC's longer-run range, unless interest rates moved up again in the second half of the year.

M2 growth would be raised for the year, but the

direct effect of lower market rates on demand for M2 may be quite modest given the relatively low interest-elasticity of that aggregate.

Whether

M2 growth would be strongly affected, with some risk of overshooting the

-13-

present long-run range, would depend mainly on the degree of upward impact on GNP growth (relative to our current forecast of 8 percent at an annual rate over the second half) of some easing in interest rates now.

Since

the contemplated interest rate declines are small,a substantial impact on spending would seem to be contingent on whether the easing engendered a significant improvement in business and consumer confidence. (21)

Alternative C, which contemplates an increase in the federal

funds rate to the 9 to 9½ percent area, would imply a level of adjustment borrowing between $500 and $700 million at the current discount rate.

With

an increasing amount of reserve demands met at the discount window, nonborrowed reserves over the next month would decline at an annual rate of around 2 percent.

The 3-month bill rate would probably rise into the 8½

to 9 percent area, and the prime rate would come under upward pressure. Bond rates, too, would rise, perhaps sharply initially, but subsequent investor willingness to acquire long-term assets in light of improved inflationary expectations would tend to blunt such increases. (22)

This alternative would be consistent with an effort to

ensure that M1 growth moves back closer to the Committee's longer-run target.

At the same time, though, the higher interest rates involved would

work to restrain M2 growth.

The direct impact on M2 of the interest rates

themselves would be relatively minor in the short run.

The principal con-

straint on growth of M2 and broader aggregates generally is more likely to come as the year progresses from any slower expansion in income that might emerge from the higher interest rates associated with the alternative.

-14-

Directive language (23) the directive.

Given below are two suggested operational paragraphs for Alternative I is the current directive, with quantitative

specifications adopted at the previous meeting shown in strike-through form and with a possible language deletion shown in brackets.

Given

the likelihood that the earlier specifications are not reasonably attainable, the Committee may wish to consider either changing the specifications in the current directive or adopting a somewhat different approach suggested by alternative II.

That alternative does not provide numerical specifica-

tions, though the possibility of including them for the broader aggregates is indicated in bracketed language.

Alternative I For the short run, the Committee seeks to maintain generally the existing degree of restraint on reserve positions, anticipating that would be consistent with a slowing from March to June in

and 8____ percent, 9] ____ growth of M2 and M3 to annual rates of about [DEL:

respectively.

The Committee expects that M1 growth at an annual

7]____ percent would be consistent with its 6] ____to [DEL: rate of about [DEL: objectives for the broader aggregates.

[Lesser restraint would be

acceptable in the context of more pronounced slowing of growth in the monetary aggregates relative to the paths implied by the longterm ranges (taking account of the distortions relating to the introduction of new accounts), or indications of a weakening in the the pace of economic recovery.]

The Chairman may call for

Committee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related

-15reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside 6]____ to [DEL: 10]____ percent. a range of[DEL: Alternative II For the short-run, the Committee seeks to (maintain generally/

increase/decrease) the existing degree of reserve restraint, anticipating that growth rates of M2 and M3 over May and June will accelerate from their reduced April pace [to annual rates of ____and ____per-

cent, respectively] while remaining in conformance with their longer-run ranges.

Consistent with these objectives, the Committee

anticipates that M1 would remain above its longer-run range, but that its growth would be substantially reduced in the period immediately ahead.

The Chairman may call for Committee consulta-

tion if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associ6] ated with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range of [DEL: 10]____ percent. ____ to [DEL:

Appendix I

Interest Rates Consistent With the Greenbook GNP Projection (quarterly averages, percent)

Federal Funds

3-month Treasury Bill

Aaa Utility

Fixed rate Mortgage Commitment

1983--Q1 (Actual) Q2 Q3 Q4

8.65 8-5/8 8-5/8 8-5/8

8.11 8-1/8 8-1/8 8-1/8

11.89 11-3/8 11-3/8 11-1/4

13.03 12-5/8 12-1/2 12-3/8

1984--Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

8-1/2 8-1/4 8-1/4 8-1/4

8 7-3/4 7-3/4 7-3/4

11 10-7/8 10-7/8 10-7/8

12-1/4 12-1/8 12 11-7/8

APPENDIX II Reserves Measures (Millions of dollars, weekly averages, not seasonally adjusted)

Week (Date of projection in parentheses)

Projections of Reserves Demanded Total Required Excess Reserves Reserves Reserves

Assumed Borrowed Reservesl

36,667

36,652 (36,499)

774 (632)

1,439 (1,429)

250

37,330

37,561 (37,506)

613 (563)

232 (222)

39,473

250

39,223

39,079 (39,137)

166 (219)

260 (252)

350

38,969

250

38,719

38,295 (38,393)

363 (459)

687 (678)

38,944

450

39,394

250

39,144

39,130 (39,115)

621 (606)

435 (435)

Apr. 6 (Apr. 1)

37,317

600

37,917

1,250

Apr. 13 (Apr. 8)

37,180

400

37,580

Apr. 20 (Apr. 15)

39,173

300

Apr. 27 (Apr. 22)

38,619

May

4 (Apr. 29)

Implied Nonborrowed Reserves 2

First Published Actual Reserves (current figures in parentheses) Excess Borrowed Nonborrowed Reserves Reserves Reserves

May

11 (May

37,568

400

37,968

250

37,718

37,701 (37,800)

336 (435)

203 (203)

May

18 (May

13)

37,764

300

38,064

250

37,814

37,577

368

555

May

25 (May

20)

37,569

350

37,919

250

37,669

1. Includes adjustment and seasonal borrowings. 2. Includes extended credit borrowings. 3. Reflects special conditions related to the quarter-end statement date.

Selected Interest Rates

Hay 23,

1983

Percent

federall fund

Short-Term CD secondy marlet 1-yer 3month

Treasury bill oondary market .ntM

1-onith

money m arket mutual fund

P*er 1n4

n dnme

Long-Tems corporate mun.Aae utility clpal recently Bond oflered Buyer

U.S. govrnment constant maturity yields

Syer

10-yar

3-yWr

home mortages convertlonal tS L

FHANA ll ce g

ONMA security

1982--Hlgh Low

15.61 8.69

14.41 7.43

14.23 7.84

13.51 8.12

15.84 8.53

15.56 8.19

13.89 8.09

16.86 11.50

15.01 9.81

14.81 10.46

14.63 10.42

16.34 11.75

13.44 9.25

17.66 13.57

16.50 12.00

15.56 12.41

1983--tghh Low

10.21 8.42

8.61 7.63

8.64 7.72

8.58 7.82

9.04 8.15

9.04 8.02

8.34 7.71

11.50 10.50

10.09 9.40

10.97 10.18

11.11 10.32

12.26 11.03

9.74 8.78

13.46 12.59

12.00 11.50

12.24 11.53

1982-Apr. May June

14.94 14.45 14.15

12.70 12.09 12.47

12.80 12.16 12.70

12.50 11.98 12.57

14.44 13.80 14.46

14.38 13.79 13.95

13.74 13.49 13.07

16.50 16.50 16.50

14.16 13.77 14.48

13.87 13.62 14.30

13.37 13.24 13.92

15.44 15.24 15.84

12.59 11.95 12.45

16.89 16.68 16.70

15.50 15.50 15.50

15.40 15.30 15.84

July Aug. Sept.

12.59 10.12 10.31

11.35 8.68 7.92

11.88 9.88 9.37

11.90 10.37 9.92

13.44 10.61 10.66

12.62 9.50 9.96

12.86 11.02 9.73

16.26 14.39 13.50

14.00 12.62 12.03

13.95 13.06 12.34

13.55 12.77 12.07

15.61 14.47 13.57

12.28 11.23 10.66

16.82 16.27 15.43

15.50 15.13 13.80

15,56 14.51 13.57

Oct. Dec.

9.71 9.20 8.05

7.71 8.07 7.94

8.29 8.34 8.16

8.63 8.44 8.23

9,51 8.95 8.66

9.08 8.66 8.53

9.16 8.54 8.22

12.52 11.85 11.50

10.62 9.98 9.88

10.91 10.55 10.54

11.17 10.54 10.54

12.34 11.88 11.91

9.69 10.06 9.96

14.61 13.83 13.62

12.75 12.25 12.00

12.83 12.66 12.60

1983--Jan. Feb. Mar.

8.68 8.51 8.77

7.86 8.11 8.35

7.93 8.23 8.37

8.01 8.28 8.36

8.36 8.54 8.69

8.19 8.30 8.56

7.96 7.79 7.77

11.16 10.98 10.50

9.64 9.91 9.84

10.46 10.72 10.51

10.63 10.88 10.63

11.84 12.09 11.74

9.50 9.58 9.20

13.25 13.04 12.80

12.00 12.00 12.00

12.06 11.94 11.87

Apr.

8.80

8.21

8.30

8.29

8.63

8.58

n.a.

10.50

9.76

10.40

10.48

11.50

9.05

12.78

12.00

11.76

1963-Mar.

2 9 16 23 30

8.44 8.59 8.57 8.75 8.88

7.93 8.14 8.26 8.47 8.61

7.96 8.13 8.28 8.52 8.64

7.99 8.14 8.30 8.51 8.58

8.26 8.42 8.60 8.84 8.99

8.11 8.36 8.45 8.62 8.86

7.76 7.71 7.77 7.76 7.84

10.79 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50

9.53 9.63 9.80 9.98 10.06

10.29 10.39 10.52 10.59 10.61

10,51 10.56 10.78 10.69 10.67

11.65 11.76 11.77 11.74 11.79

9.04 9.22 9.19 9.15 9.38

12.74 12.79 12.81 12.86 12.82

12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00

11.71 11.82 11.88 11.87 11.89

Apr.

6 13 20 27

9.43 8.76 8.70 8.58

8.55 8.25 8.12 8.14

8.59 8.33 8.24 8.23

8.53 8.32 8.27 8.24

9.04 8.70 8.58 8.48

9.04 8.61 8.49 8.39

8.04 7.96 7.93 7.91

10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50

9.96 9.78 9.72 9.76

10.55 10.45' 10.34 10.38

10.61 10.50 10.41 10.49

11.63 11.39 11.50 11.34

9.23 9.04 9.09 8.82

12.82 12.79 12.75 12.73

12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00

11.92 11.75 11.65 11.72

8.80 8.48 8.59

8.06 8.03 86.09

8.06 8.02 8.13

8.05 8.01 8.15

8.35 8.31 8.41

8.33 8.22 8.32

7.91 7.86 7.81

10.50 10.50 10.50

9.52 9.41 9.57

10.24 10.18 10.33

10.37 10.32 10.50

11.03 11.18 4 11. 6p

12.71 12.59 a.a.

12.00 11.50 11.50

11.64 11.53 11.65

8.39 8.75 8.73p

8.02 8.14 8.18

8.04 8.25 8.28

8.04 8.28 8.33

8.32 8.53 8.59

8.25 8.39 8.41

--- 10.50 10.50 10.50

9.45 9.74 9.81p

10.22 10.49 10.53p

10.37 10.67 10.69p

may

11 18 25 Daily--May 13 19 20

NOTE: Weekly data for Columns 1 through 11 are statement week averages. Data In column 7 are taken Irio Donoghues Money Fund Report. Columns 12 and 13 re 1-day quot for Friday end Thursday, spectlvely. follOwlin the end of the stalliemen w . Column 14 Is an averag of contract Interest rte on comminttmenl for conventional Mfli morgagas with 80 percent on-to.value ratloe made by a umple of

8.78 8.86 9,29

Insured savings and loan iasoclatlons on the Friday following the end of the statement wek. ONMA yields are average net yields to inveltOn on n mOrgage-.cked securitel for Immeldate dellv. aeauming prepayment In 12 years on pools of 3-year mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 beats points below the current FHANA colling.

PHANA

FR 1367 (1/82)

Net Changes In System Holdings of Securities1 May

Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted

Treasury coupons net purchases

Treasury P o bhange,, r ch an

Period within -yar

ills 1-5

tOulrlghl 5-10

over 10

total

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

870 6,243 -3.052 5,337 5.698

1.184 603 912 294 312

4,188 3,456 2,138 1.702 1,794

1,526 523 703 393 388

1,063 454 811 379 307

7,962 5,035 4,564 2.768 2.803

1982--Qtr. I II III IV

-4,329 5,585

20 -68 71 88

50 570 891 485

-81 113 194

52 123 132

70 635 1,198 900

1983--Qtr. I

-1,403

88 -

485 --

194 --

-2.883 222 1.259

--- ----

----

2,880

1982--Nov. Dec.

4.292

2,552 966

1983-Jan. Feb. Har. Apr. 1983--Mar.

I50

1-5

-47 131 217 133 -

45 317 398 360 --

104 5 29 --

--- --

o10

over 10

1983

Net change

Federal agencies net purchases' within

23,

total

holdin ol

N e R Nei RPss

127 454 668 494 --

8.724 10.290 2,035 8.491 8,312

-1.774 -2,597 2.462 684 1.461

-----

-4,371 6,208 1,295 5.179

-999 -5.375 7,855 -20

-1.425

-3.325

24 -24 --

132 --

900 --

--- --

--- -

3.451 960

2.145 2.737

----

--- --- -

--- --- --

-2,92 2

1,250

-6.127 2,971 -168

2.873

2.971

3 498 357

-1,681 -2,611 1.045

2 9 16 23 30

164 498 365 Il 237

--- --

--- -

237

-2,388

Apr.

6 13 20 27

47 68 2,193 190

----

-----

----

47 61 2.19J 190

2.084 -1,440 1,288 2,390

May

4 II 18

430 -136

-173

--595

--326

--108

--- --- --

--- ----

430 -1,339

-3,579 -1.462 3.089

LEVEL--May

59.6

20.6

33.0

11.7

17.1

4.5

1.2

8.9

150.9

-1.203 82.4

I Change from end of period to end of period. accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions, 2 Outright transactions inmarket and with foreign 3 Outright transactions in market and with foreignaccounts, and short term notes acquired in ex change for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treauury borrowing from the System. 4 Outright transctions inmarket and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts.

2.7

-. 7

5 In addition to the net purchases of ecurities. also rellects changes in Systen holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowing Irom the System and redemptions (-) of agency and Trea sury coupon ssues. 6 Includes changes in RPs (+). matched sale purchase transactions - .and matched purchase sale transactions (+).

Security Dealer Positions

May 23,

1983

Millions of dollars

SCash

Positions

STreury coupons Prd

Neat Total

TreasuIy bills

undr 1 year

Forward and Futures Positions

Treasury coupons

over 1 yar

federal agency

private short-term

Treasury bills

under 1 year

Over 1 year

I federal agency

private short-term

1982--igh Low

49.437 -18,698

11.156 -2,699

772 -747

9,456 1,005

6,275 1,955

16,658 6,758

8,032 -11.077

36 -77

-687 -4,699

-526 -2,715

703 -7,196

1983-High Low

20.875 5.223

13,273 6,650

106 -675

7,108 372

5,948 4,013

15,658 9,966

280 -10,326

7* -95

-1.490 -3,225

-1.014* -3.382

-5,144 -7.512

1982-Apr. may June

13.149 9.324 12.317

7,721 7,390 7,286

-99 -295 -462

4,945 7,008 4,253

2,916 3.117 2,976

10,225 11,123 11,749

-5,552 -10,129 -6,194

-7 -2 3

-3,392 -4.350 -2,679

-1,467 -1,654 -1,405

-2.141 -2,884 -3,210

July Aug. Sept.

18,722 23,611 16,497

5,768 1.330 275

-583 -632 -534

4,029 4,258 2,366

2,872 3.556 4,416

14,530 14,698 12.787

-1.403 6,240 3.158

16 -29 -21

-3,452 -2,794 -1.286

-1,195 -1,508 -2.405

-1,860 -1.508 -2,259

Oct. Nov. Dec.

18,136 17,310 18,874r

1,044 3.653 8.732

109 -593 428

2.643 4,170 5.654r

5,251 5,680 5.949r

13,360 11,821 14,046r

5,285 1,461 -5,519r

-14 -9 -29

-1,644 -3.219 -2.898r

-2,405 -2,372 -2,443

-5.493 -4,468 -5,046

1983-Jan. Feb. Mar.

13.506t 16.675r 5,887.t

9,962r 10,534 9,544

232r -428 3

4.950r 4.087r 1,852r

5.125 4,455 4.855

13,166 11,477 12,087

-7.782r -3.631r -1.725r

-50 -70 -4

-2,766r -1.783r -2.476r

-2,654t -2,099r -1.970r

-6,677t -5,867r -6.299r

Apr.

8,769*

7,775*

-3714

1,610*

5.278*

11,753*

-7,4978

-2,480*

-1,458*

-5,832*

15.812 20,852r 13,324 15,888 14.161r

10.789 13.273 8.114 9.555 7.197

-109 106 22 -30 -44

6,394 3.187 372 740 1,742

4,013 5.081 5,394 4.475 4,745

12,502 13,154 12,306 11.507 11,175

-7,254 -2,786 -1,633r -965r 280r

Apr.

6 13 20 27

10.263 5,223 8,384 11.015*

7,063 6,650 9,443. 8.119*

-350 -491 -404 -298*

760 764 1,262 2,877*

4,937 5,022 5,659 5,221*

11,162 11,391 11,873 L,64 9*

-2.276r -7,721r -9.266 -8,111*

May

4 11

12,801* 9,266* 6,014*

,8.256* 6,887* 5.922*

3,498* 4,869* 1.949*

5,623* 5.581* 6.012*

13,896* 12.513* 10,821*

-9,420* -10,311* -8.239*

1983--Mar.

2 9 16 23

18 25

-32 97* 131*

NOTE: Goverment securities dealer cash positions consist of securitle, already delivered, commitments to buy (sell) securities on an outright basis for immediate delivery (5 business days or less). and certain "when-.ssued" securtifes for delayed delivery (more than 5 business days). Futures and forward positions include all other commitments involving delayed delivery; futures contracts are arranged on organied exchanges. 1. Cash plus forward plus futures positions in Treasury, federal agency, and private short-term securities. SStrictly confidential

-9* -37 -3 -4 -2 4

-2.271r -2.246 -2,510r -2,370 -2.587r

-1.670 -1,894r -2.717r -1,878 -1,563r

-6.545r -7,020 -6,020 -5.144 -6,788

-6 -S -9 -10*

-2,804 -2,658 -2,675 -1.988k

-1,772 -1,668 -1,626 -1.023*

-6,451 -6,057 -5.843 -5,391*

-7* 7* 15*

-2,609* -3,056* -3,107*

-1.014*

-5,389* -5,699* -5.508*

-1,522* -1,982*

Data for May 18 is calculated from partial weeks data.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1983, May 23). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19830524

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19830524,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1983},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19830524},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}