Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

1

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

_

November 10, 1983 ____

MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

November 10, 1983

CLASS I - FOMC

MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Recent Developments (1)

M2 is estimated to have expanded at about a 9 percent annual

rate in October, near the 8-1/2 percent pace specified by the FOMC for the September-to-December period.

The acceleration of M2 from its 4-1/2 per-

cent rate of September was attributable to faster growth in its nontransactions components, other than savings deposits and MMDAs; small time deposits, which have been growing rapidly since midsummer, were probably boosted a little by the October 1 deregulation of interest rates.

From its February-March base,

M2 had increased at a 7-3/4 percent annual rate by October, in the lower half of its 7 to 10 percent longer-run range. (2)

M3 growth in October, at around an 8-1/4 percent annual rate,

also was close to the 8-1/2 percent pace sought by the FOMC for the Septemberto-December period.

While issuance of large CDs by thrift institutions

continued heavy, banks allowed large certificates to run off more rapidly in October in the face of large inflows of other deposits.

For the year-to-date,

M3 has increased at a 9 percent annual rate, somewhat below the upper end of its 6-1/2 to 9-1/2 percent longer-term range. (3)

Expansion in M1,

at about a 1-1/2 percent annual rate, re-

mained low in October for the third month in a row.

Currency grew at about

a 10 percent annual rate, but other checkable deposits were about flat for the second straight month, and demand deposits registered their third consecutive monthly decline.

By October, M1 was in the lower half of its longer-run

KEY MONETARY POLICY AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth)

July

1983 Aug. Sept.

Oct.

Long-run base to October1

Ml

8.9

2.8

0.9

1.4

5.9

M2

6.8

6.0

4.6

9.0

7.8

M3

5.5

8.7

7.2

8.3

9.0

11.0

10.0

8.8

7.2

10.4

9.7

11.2

4.9

9.9

-0.3

-9.3

5.0

7.6

Total reserves

6.0

-3.4

0.7

-3.3

Monetary base

5.1

6.5

9.0

6.8

Memo: (Millions of dollars) Adjustment and seasonal borrowing

875

1,055

926

5894

Excess reserves

507

446

498

5024

Money and Credit Aggregates

Domestic nonfinancial debt Bank credit Reserves Measures

2

Nonborrowed reserves 3

1/ The base for Ml is QII '83, for M2 is February-March 1983, for M3 is QIV '82, and for domestic nonfinancial debt is December 1982. / Growth rates of reserve measures are adjusted to remove the effects of discontinuities resulting from phased changes in reserve ratios under the Monetary Control Act. 3/ Includes special borrowing and other extended credit from the Federal Reserve. 4/ During the first two statement weeks ending in November, borrowing averaged $740 million and excess reserves $456 million.

monitoring range of 5 to 9 percent, having increased at almost a 6 percent annual rate since the second quarter. (4)

Growth in the debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors is esti-

mated to have slowed last month, dropping to about a 7 percent annual rate, as funds raised by private sectors apparently moderated further.

Growth

of debt from year end 1982 through October is now estimated at almost a 10-1/2 percent annual rate, as compared with its 8-1/2 to 11-1/2 percent monitoring range.

Household credit demands continued fairly large last

month, and business credit demands were again relatively light, probably reflecting strong internal cash flows.

Business borrowing recently has

shifted even more toward short-term sources.

Commercial paper issuance

remained strong in October and business borrowing from commercial banks picked up; business loans at large banks declined further, but sizable increases were recorded at small banks and foreign branches of U.S. banks. (5)

Total reserves contracted in October at nearly a 4 percent

annual rate, reflecting a decline in required reserves associated partly with weakness in interbank deposits at member banks.

The monetary base, by

contrast, expanded at a 7 percent annual rate owing to the rapid growth of currency.

Over the intermeeting period, regular plus seasonal borrowing

at the discount window averaged close to the $650 million level assumed in constructing the weekly nonborrowed reserve paths, as substantial borrowing late in the period offset previous shortfalls.

The variations in borrowing

resulted in part from unexpected changes on the last day of the statement week in market factors affecting reserves.

(6)

Federal funds have traded primarily in a 9-1/4 to 9-1/2 per-

cent range since the last FOMC meeting.

Other market interest rates generally

have moved higher, however, in response to incoming data indicating continued strength in economic activity and, most recently, to uncertainty about the pattern of Treasury financing pending resolution of difficulties in raising the debt ceiling.

The largest rate increases have been in the bond area, where

yields have risen 25 to 35 basis points over the intermeeting period, while short-term rates have moved up 5 to 15 basis points.

In contrast, primary

conventional mortgage rates declined about 20 basis points since the early October meeting, and the ceiling rate on FHA/VA mortgages was trimmed 1/2 of a percentage point to 12-1/2 percent.

Most broad-based stock price indexes

have fallen since early October, with some bank stocks registering sizable declines amid intensified concerns about loans to developing countries; such concerns are not evident in the CD market, however. (7)

The dollar has appreciated by about one percent, on a weighted

average basis, since the last FOMC meeting.

The dollar's rise was associ-

ated with changing expectations about the likely course of U.S. interest rates and with an intensification of geopolitical tensions.

The German mark

was also affected by the revelation in early November of difficulties in a German commercial bank.

. Gold declined by a further 3 percent and silver by 15 percent since the last FOMC meeting.

These declines

-5probably reflected in small part the recent rise in long-term U.S. interest rates but, more importantly, sales from official silver stocks by Peru and the associated increase in expected possible sales of precious metals by other hard-pressed developing country borrowers.

-6-

Prospective developments (8)

The table below shows alternative specifications for the

monetary aggregates over the September-to-December period, together with the federal funds rate range for the upcoming intermeeting period and implied growth rates for the two-month October-to-December period associated with each alternative.

(More detailed data for these alternatives are

shown on the charts and table on the following pages.)

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

9-1/4 9 6-1/2

8-1/2 8-1/2 5-1/2

7-3/4 8 4-1/2

6 to 9-1/2

6 to 10

7 to 11

9-1/4 9-1/4 9

8-1/4 8-1/2 7-1/2

7-1/4 7-3/4 6

Current FOMC Specifications

Growth from Sept. to Dec. M2 M3 Ml

Federal funds rate range

8-1/2 8-1/2 7

Implied growth from Oct.

to Dec.

M2 M3 Ml

(9)

Alternative B involves the same growth in the broader

aggregates than is currently specified for the September-to-December period; alternatives A and C call for somewhat faster and slower growth in the broader aggregates.

However, in all cases, expected M1 growth is

lower than the Committee's current short-run specifications, given the unexpectedly slow growth of this aggregate in October.

Under all of the

alternatives, the monetary aggregates would be expected to remain comfortably within their longer-run ranges for 1983, with M1 and M2 in the lower halves of their respective ranges and M3 in the upper part of its range;

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II FOMC

Chart 1

Actual and Targeted M2

11

M2

14

83

Billions of dollars 2220

-ACTUAL LEVEL **.* SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES -

2180

-

2140

--- 2100

--

2060

2020

SI N

D 1982

JJ

F

M

I

A

M

IJ I J I J A 1983

S

O

I N IJ D

J

F F 1984

--

1980

--

1940

--

1900

1860 M

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II FOMC

Chart 2

Actual and Targeted M3

,

M3

I

Billions of dollars 12650 -

ACTUAL LEVEL

..**

SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES

9',°o

(

--

2600

2550

--- 2500

2450

-

2400

2350

N

D 1982

J

F

M

I

I

I A

M

J

J 1983

A

S

O

N

J

2300

I

I

D

F 1984

M

Chart3

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II - FOMC

Actual and Targeted M1

11

14

83

Billions of dollars 1550

** ...

ACTUAL LEVEL SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES

N D 1982

J

J 1983

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F 1984

M

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

1983-July August September October November December

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt.

2126.3 2136.9 2145.1

2126.3 2136.9 2145.1

2161.1 2177.6 2194.3

2161.1 2175.9 2190.7

C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

2126.3 2136.9 2145.1

2510.2 2528.3 2543.4

2510.2 2528.3 2543.4

2510.2 2528.3 2543.4

515.5

515.5

515.5

516.7 517.1

516.7 517.1

516.7 517.1

2161.1 2174.1 2187.1

2560.9 2581.2 2600.5

2560.9 2579.7 2597.3

2560.9 2578.2 2594.1

517.7 520.8 525.5

517.7 520.3 524.2

517.7 519.8 522.9

8.9 2.8 0.9

8.9 2.8 0.9

8.9 2.8 0.9

9.2

1.4 7.2 10.8

1.4 6.0 9.0

1.4 4.9 7.2

9.2 9.2

6.5 9.0

5.5 7.5

4.5 6.0

14.1

14.1 12.2 8.9 3.3

14.1 12.2 8.9 2.9

Growth Rates Monthly

1983--July August September October November December September-December October-December

6.8 6.0 4.6 9.0 9.2

Growth Rates Quarterly Average 1983--Q01

20.3

02 03

10.1 7.8 7.8

04

20.3 10.1 7.8 7.5

20.3

10.1 7.8 7.1

10.2 8.1 8.2 8.5

10.2 8.1 8.2 8.2

10.2 8.1 8.2 8.0

12.2 8.9 3.8

Memo: Growth Rate Base period to 1983041

7.9

1/ Base period is February-March 1983 average for M2, 1983 average for Ml.

fourth quarter 1982 average for M3, and second quarter

growth rates from longer-run bases to the fourth quarter under each alternative are shown in the detailed table. (10)

The specifications of alternative B are expected to be

consistent with little change in bank reserve positions and money market conditions from those recently prevailing.

Borrowing at the discount

window would be anticipated to be around $650 million and the funds rate between 9-1/4 and 9-1/2 percent, perhaps closer to the latter rate.

De-

spite a pickup in growth of transactions deposits, nonborrowed reserves would probably change little under this alternative over the two-month November-December period, owing primarily to the impact of lagged reserve accounting and changes in the deposit mix. (11)

M2 growth is expected to slow a little in November and

December under alternative B from its rate in October, when its nontransactions component was probably boosted slightly by the October 1 deregulation.

Although growth of 8-1/2 percent over the final three months of

the year would represent a considerable pickup from the pace of the previous three months, on a quarterly average basis the expansion of M2 would fall well short of projected nominal GNP growth for the second consecutive quarter; nonetheless, the resulting increase in M2 velocity of 3 to 4 percent would not be atypical for this stage of an economic recovery.

M3 growth is expected to be sustained at, or a little above,

its October pace.

Should the decline in the Treasury cash balance be

exaggerated because of debt ceiling problems, growth in M2 and M3 may be somewhat stronger as banks seek additional deposit funds to support credit expansion in the absence of their usual Treasury balances. (12)

M1 is expected to accelerate over November and December

to about a 7-1/2 percent annual rate from its very low growth rates of the past few months, primarily in response to the underlying strength

-9in transactions needs.

We would not expect any very substantial effect

on M1--certainly not a lingering effect and perhaps not even a transitory one--from a drop in Treasury cash balances because of debt ceiling problems; some investors may leave funds in cash for a time while awaiting Treasury issues delayed by the debt ceiling but for the most part such funds would probably be invested in other instruments. (13)

Even with the substantial pickup in M1 growth expected

between now and year-end (with the largest increase anticipated for December on a monthly average basis) M1 growth from the third to the fourth quarter would be only around 3-1/4 percent at an annual rate.

Assuming

nominal GNP grows at the 11-1/2 percent annual rate forecast by the staff, velocity growth would be by far the largest of the current recovery. Such an increase in velocity is larger than is implicit in many econometric equations predicting money demand-suggesting some unwinding of the unusually large build-up in cash balances seen since late 1982.

In the

absence of any further such unwinding, however, continuation of money market rates around current levels could be associated with a tendency for M1 in the first quarter to be in the upper part of the FOMC's tentative longer-term range for 1984. (14)

Market interest rates might tend to rise a bit under

alternative B, although the likelihood or extent of any such upward pressure would depend in part on whether reserve paths led to federal funds trading more consistently near 9-1/2 percent than has been the case recently.

In any event, credit markets will have to absorb a

large volume of new Treasury issues in a short period at a time when private credit demands may be picking up.

On balance, a 3-month Treasury

-10-

bill rate in an 8-3/4 to 9-1/4 percent range might be anticipated, with bond yields unchanged or rising slightly. (15)

A pickup in debt issuance from the very moderate pace of

October is expected over the balance of the year. as a whole,

Over the fourth quarter

the debt of all domestic nonfinancial sectors is projected to

rise at about a 9-1/4 percent annual rate, leaving this aggregate just above the midpoint of its 8-1/2 to 11-1/2 percent 1983 monitoring range. Consumer credit demands are likely to be stronger in the fourth than the third quarter, while residential mortgage formation may be maintained near

its recent pace.

At the current level of bond rates, much of business

borrowing would probably continue to fall on banks and the commercial paper market. (16)

Alternative A involves an easing in bank reserve positions

and money market conditions over the next few weeks--with borrowing from the discount window falling into the $350-450 million range and the federal funds rate dropping to around 8-3/4 to 9 percent.

Growth of nonborrowed

reserves would likely average around 5 percent at an annual rate over November and December. (17)

M1 under this alternative would be expected to accelerate

in November and December sufficiently to bring growth for the last three months of the year to around 6-1/2 percent, very near the Committee's current specification.

Growth of M2 and M3, however, would likely exceed

the Committee's current 8-1/2 percent short-term objective, although remaining within their longer-term ranges.

However, much of the impact on

money growth of easier bank reserve positions late in the fourth quarter would be felt beginning early next year, through the impact on money demand

-11-

both of lower interest rates and the transactions needs associated with stronger GNP growth. (18)

The extent of easing in money market conditions contem-

plated under alternative A would probably result in a sizable decline in other short-term interest rates, with the 3-month Treasury bill falling into the 8 to 8-1/2 percent area, and a decline in the dollar on foreign exchange markets. cially if

The reaction of bond yields may be more muted, espe-

incoming data indicated not only continued strength in economic

activity but also a very substantial pickup in money stock growth. (19)

Somewhat tighter reserve conditions are contemplated under

alternative C, with discount window borrowing in the neighborhood of $800 to $900 million and the federal funds rate rising to around 10 percent. Under these conditions, growth in M1 and M2 for 1983 would be expected to move down further in the lower halves of their respective longer-term ranges, while M3 would come in closer to the midpoint of its range. Market interest rates would rise sharply from current levels under this alternative.

Such a tightening over the period immediately ahead does

not appear to be widely anticipated in the market despite the recent strength of the economy, given growth of the monetary aggregates well within their ranges and concerns generated by international debt problems. The 3-month Treasury bill rate would probably move up in a 9-1/4 to 9-3/4 percent range, and bond yields would probably adjust similarly, at least initially.

The recent decline on yields in fixed-rate mortgages would

probably be reversed, and the dollar would appreciate further in foreign exchange markets.

-12-

Directive language (20)

Given below is a suggested operational paragraph for the

directive with the numerical specifications adopted at the meeting on October 4 shown in strike-through form. The Committee seeks in the short run to (maintain, INCREASE SLIGHTLY,

DECREASE SLIGHTLY) THE EXISTING [DEL: the slightly lesser]

degree

of reserve restraint [DEL: sought inrecent-weeks]. The action is expected to be associated with growth of M2 and M3 at annual rates of around [DEL: 8-1/2] ____ percent AND ____ PERCENT RESPECTIVELY from September to December, consistent with the targets established for these aggregates for the year.

Depending on evidence about the strength

of economic recovery and other factors bearing on the business and inflation outlook,

lesser restraint would be acceptable in the con-

text of a significant shortfall in growth of the aggregates from current expectations,

while somewhat greater restraint would be

acceptable should the aggregates expand more rapidly.

The Commit-

tee anticipates that M1 growth at an annual rate of around

[DEL: ____ 7]

percent from September to December will be consistent with its fourth-quarter objectives for the broader aggregates,

and that

expansion in total domestic nonfinancial debt would remain within the range established for the year. Committee consultation if it

The Chairman may call for

appears to the Manager for Domestic

Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside 10] ____ 6 to a range of[DEL:

TO ____ percent.

Security Dealer Positions

November

14,

1983

Millions of dollars

Period

Cash Positions Tfreury coupons

Forward and Futures Positions Tressurycoupona

Nt

Treasury

under

over

federal

private

Treasury

under

over

federal

private

Total

bills

1 year

1 year

agency

short-term

bills

1 year

1 year

agency

hort-term

1982--High Low

49,437 -18,698

11,156 -2,151

-747

8,169 1.005

6,281 1,955

16.213 6.758

7.674 -11,077

36 -56

-687 -4.182

-526 -2.715

853 -6.455

1983--High Low

20.857 -277

13.273 -478

473 -687

8.700 -1.265

9.785 4,013

15.658 8.839

1.654 -10,738

14 -95

-325 -3,288

-859 -6.168

-4,428 -9.564

1982--Oct. Nov. Dec.

18,880 17,317 18,876

1.156 3,654 8.732

109 497 428

3,233 4.268 5,655

5.285 5,684 5.949

13.371 11.821 14,046

5,285 1,461 -5,519

-14 -9 -29

-1,648 -3.218 -2.898

-2.404 -2.371 -2.443

-5.493 -4.468 -5,045

1983--Jan. Feb. Mar.

13,041 16,604 15,933

9,962 10.534 9,544

-232 -428 3

4.950 4.061 1.852

5,125 4.455 4.855

13,166 11.477 12,087

-7,782 -3.631 -1.734

-50 -70 -4

-2.766 -1,807 -2.357

-2.654 -2.099 -1.990

-6.677 -5,886 -6.325

Apr. May June

8.509 5.118 7.615

7,775 4,438 3.657

-371 31 63

1.610 1.818 157

5,278 5.694 5.631

11.753 10.914 9,787

-7.705 -7,288 -914

-9 0 -23

-2.479 -2.636 -722

-1.482 -1,666 -1,598

-5.860 -6,286 -8.423

July Aug. Sept.

2.982 7,521 9,859

411 880 1,826

126 -198 -570

35 2,574 6.279

6,904 7,994 9,170

10,275 10,359 13.123

-2.635 -1,861 -7.313

-6 -3 -2

-1,645 -2,706 -2.601

-1,817 -3,619 -5.007

-8,665 -5,899 -5,046

Oct.

6,433*

2,352*

-481*

3.275*

10,119*

14.205*

-9.315*

-12*

-1,66L*

-5,327*

-6,722*

125 1.879 1,389 3,390

-621 -494 -527 -622

4.855 4,499 6.530 8,700

8.559 9,557 9,785 8,655

12.082 13.853 13.327 12,925

-3.881 -6.274 -7.006 -9.681

0 0 0 -1

-2,344 -3,288 -2,528 -2.149

-4.557 -4.780 -6,168 -4,466

-4.428 -4,542 -5,194 -5.533

6.728 3.942* 1,112* 3,560*

-11.335 -8,846* -8.136* -9,510*

-21 -27* -7* 0*

-2.639 -2,097* -1,252* -1.380*

-5.237 -3.290* -6.727* -5.711*

-5,926 -6,988* -6.929* -6.750*

-2* -2p*

-1,067* -8944p

-4.891* -5,648p*

-6.692* -6.270p*

1982--Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

7 14 21 28

9.789 10,410 9,607

11,217

679

5 12 19 26

7.038 7,452* 5.533* 7,097*

3.253 1.019* 3,064* 2,707*

-436

2 9 16 23 30

6,023*

2,517* 3,021p*

-472* -461p*

9,109p*

I

-349*

-653* -511*

864* -483p*

9,079 9,961* 11.052* 10.201 9.895* 79 3 . p*

10

_

NOTE: Government securities dealer cash positions consist of securities already delivered, com. mitments to buy (sell) securities on an outright basis for Immediate delivery (5 business days or less), and certain "when-issued" securities for delayed delivery (more than 5 business days). Futures and forward positions include all other commitments Involving delayed delivery; futures contracts are arrang ed on organized exchanges. 1. Cash plus forward plus futures positions In Treasury, federal agency, and private short-term securities. SStrictly confidential

13.571 14,128* 14,008* 14.493* 14.937* 6 14,61 p*

-9,066* -5,564p*

Net Changes In System Holdings of Securities1 Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted

Treury S1-nt blls chanW

Perlod

4

Treasury coupons net purchases'

510

1-5 ithin Iyear I-year

5.10

over 10

November 14,

total

Federal agencies net purchases 15 10 ov 0 over 10 5-10 1-5 ithin Itotal

total

1983

Net change hi gh10 N

N

t RP

et RP

870 6.243 -3.052 5.337 5,698

1,184 603 912 294 312

4,188 3.456 2,138 1.702 1,794

1,526 523 703 393 388

1.063 454 811 379 307

7.962 5.035 4,564 2,768 2,803

8,724 10,290 2.035 8,491 8,312

-1,774 -2,597 2,462 684 1.461

1982--Qtr. III IV

150 4,292

71 88

891 485

113 194

123 132

1,198 900

1,295 5,179

7,855 -20

11 II III

-1,403 5.116 4,617

173 156

595 481

326 215

108 124

1,203 975

-1,425 6.208 5,439

-3.325 -793 9,412

173

595

108

1,203

2,873 1,718 1.617

2,971 -3,041 -723

156

481

124

975

1,632 1.341 2,466

523 1,152 7,737

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

2,880 516 1,721

1983--April may June

666 1,480 2,471

July August September October

307

309

302 86 942 560 266 427

736 -15 -837 -542 2.479

-11

1983-Augumt

3 10 17 24 31

86 942 560 266 -289

September

7 14 21 28

-714 50 2,636 153

-714 45 2,636 153

2.879 -4,312 2.346 -133

October

S 12 19 26

380 52 167 55

380 48 167 52

-377 -1,248 57 -1,607

November

2 9

LEVEL--Iov.

9

--211 19.2

33.1

17.6

83.3

1 Change from end-of-period to end-ofperiod. 2 Outright transctions in market and with foreign accounts. and redemptions I-) in bill auctions, 3 Outright transctlons In mrket and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired In ex change for maturing bills, Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts rollovers of maturing coupon lsues. and direct Tresury borrowing from the System. 4 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts.

158.5

-226 -5,902 -8.8

5 In addition to the net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowing from the System and redemptions (-) of agency and Tree sury coupon issues. 6 Includes changes in RPs (+), matched sale-purchase transactions (-). and matched purchase sale transactions (+1).

Selected Interest Rates

November 14,

Percent

federal funds

Proted

Short-Term CDe secondary market 1.y a. 3month

Treaury bill secondary market oth

.montI

1983

Long-Term comm. paper 1-month 1-moth

money market mutual fund fund

U.S. government constant bankmaturity yields prime loan e 30year lan 3-year 10yer 30year

corporate Aaa utility recently rcenly offered

muni. cipal Bond Bond Buyer

home mortgages conen c

one tonal at Ls

FHAIVA c nl ceiling

sGNMA ecurity

3

4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

15.61 8.69

14.41 7.43

14.23 7.84

13.51 8.12

15.84 8.53

15.56 8.19

13.89 8.09

16.86 11.50

15.01 9.81

14.81 10.46

14.63 10.42

16.34 11.75

13.44 9.25

17.66 13.57

16.50 12.00

1 .56r 12.41

1983--18gh Loa

10.21 8.42

9.49 7.63

9.64 7.72

9.79 7.82

9.93 8.15

9.53 8.02

8.79 7.71

11.50 10.50

11.57 9.40

12.14 10.18

12.11 10.32

12.90 11.03

9.85 8.78

13.89 12.55

13.50 11.50

13.42 11.53

1982--Oct.

9.71 9.20 8.05

7.71 8.07 7.94

8.29 8.34 8.16

8.63 8.44 8.23

9.51 8.95 8.66

9.08 8.66 8.53

9.16 8.54 8.22

12.52 11.85 11.50

10.62 9.98 9.88

10.91 10.55 10.54

11.17 10.54 10.54

12.34 11.88 11.91

9.69 10.06 9.96

14.61 13.83 13.62

12.75 12.25 12.00

12.83 12.66 12.60

1983--Jan. Feb. Mar.

8.68 8.51 8.77

7.86 8.11 8.35

7.93 8.23 8.37

8.01 8.28 8.36

8.36 8.54 8.69

8.19 8.30 8.56

7.06 7.79 7.77

11.16 10.98 10.50

9.64 9.91 9.84

10.46 10.72 10.51

10.63 10.88 10.63

11.84 12.09 11.74

9.50 9.58 9.20

13.31 13.04 12.80

12.00 12.00 12.00

12.06 11.94 11.87

Apr. May June

8.80 8.63 8.98

8.21 8.19 8.79

8.30 8.22 8.89

8.29 8.23 8.87

8.63 8.49 9.20

8.58 8.36 8.97

7.96 7.83 8.01

10.50 10.50 10.50

9.76 9.66 10.32

10.40 10.38 10.85

10.48 10.53 10.93

11.50 11.37 11.81

9.05 9.11 9.52

12.78 12.63 12.87

12.00 11.63r 11.88r

11.76r 11.72 12.09

July Aug. Sept.

9.37 9.56 9.45

9.08 9.34 9.00

9.26 9.51 9.15

9.34 9.60 9.27

9.50 9.77 9.39

9.15 9.41 9.19

8.34 8.69 8.77

10.50 10.89 11.00

10.90 11.30 11.07

11.38 11.85 11.65

11.40 11.82 11.63

12.39 12.75 12.50

9.53 9.72 9.58

13.42 13.81 13.73

12.30r 13.38r 13.00

12.54 13.01 12.73

Oct.

9.48

8.64

8.83

8.98

9.18

9.03

n.a.

11.00

10.87

11.54

11.58

12.42

9.66

13.54

13.00

12.42

9.57 9.36 9.25 9.05

9.65 9.43 9.42 9.22

9.36 9.26 9.27 8.97

8.78 8.78 8.78 8.66

11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00

11.35 11.14 11.09 10.86

11.88 11.69 11.67 11.49

11.86 11.67 11.65 11.47

12.59 12.55 12.31 12.38

9.67 9.62 9.42 9.46

13.77 13.72 13.72 13.65

13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00

13.04 12.67 12.69 12.52

1

1982--Righ Low

Iov.

Dec.

2

5

6

1983--Sept.

7 14 21 28

9.53 9.54 9.48 9.04

9.19 9.10 9.02 8.81

9.44 9.26 9.13 8.91

Oct.

5 12 19 26

10.00 9.46 9.36 9.36

8.69 8.69 8.63 8.62

8.86 8.87 8.82 8.83

9.01 8.99 8.97 8.98

9.16 9.18 9.15 9.21

9.06 9.02 9.01 9.04

8.79 8.65 8.65 8.59

11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00

10.80 10.81 10.86 10.92

11.44 11.45 11.54 11.60

11.45 11.49 11.58 11.63

12.32 12.46 12.33 12.58

9.49 9.67 9.68 9.81

13.59 13.60 13.52 13.43

13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00

12.37 12.57 12.33 12.41

Nov.

2 9 16 23 30

9.40 9.36

8.55 8.75

8.77 8.91

9.00 9.13

9.24 9.40

9.03 9.14

8.59 8.52

11.00 11.00

10.96 11.08

11.69 11.82

11.75 11.88

12.77 12.70p

9.79 9.75

13.42 13.47

12.50 12.50

12.56 12.56

Daily-4Nov. Nov.

4 10

9.32 9.42p

8.81 8.76

8.96 8.92

9.18 9.02

9.42 9.37

9.13 9.15

11.00

11.12

11.85

11.91

11.00

10.99P

11.77P

11.74P

a NOTE Weekly data for column 1 through 11 are alatement wek averages. Data In column are taken from Donohue Money Fund Report. Columns 12 and 13 are I-day quotes for Frildy and Thursday, spectlvely, following the end of the statement wek Column 14 Is an average of contraci Interest rates on commitments for conventonal first mortgages with 80 percent loan to value ratios made by a sample of

.2

--

------

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Insured savngs and loan associations on the Friday tollowing the end of the statement week GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage backed securities for immediate delivery assuming prepaymeni in 12 years on pools of 30 year FHAVA mortgages carrying the coupon rlae 50 basis points below Ihe current FANVA ceiling