bluebooks · August 20, 1984

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

August 17,

Strictly Confidential (FR)

1984

Class I FOMC

MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I -

August 17,

1984

FOMC

MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES

Recent developments (1)

M1 contracted in July at a 1-1/2 percent annual rate.

appears to be rebounding moderately in August, based on data for the early part of the month, but remains below the 5-1/2 percent path for the Juneto-September period adopted at the last Committee meeting.

Expansion in

currency moderated somewhat in July and other checkable deposits registered a rare, though small, decline; however, most of the weakness in M1 occurred in demand deposits, following a sharp expansion in June. (2)

M2 also appears to be growing more slowly than the 7-1/2

percent rate specified by the FOMC for June to September, reflecting the sluggishness in M1 and also somewhat slower growth than expected in its nontransactions component.

In July M2 expanded at a 5 percent annual rate,

and may grow only a little faster in August.

With interest rates high and

the yield curve sharply upward sloping through much of the month, savings and money market deposit accounts continued to run off, but the less liquid small time deposit category remained quite robust, surging at a 24 percent annual rate. (3)

M3 growth was relatively well maintained in July at a rate

close to the FOMC's specification of 9 percent for the June-to-September period.

Credit growth at banks and thrifts seems to have been fairly sizable

last month, and expansion of total domestic nonfinancial sector debt is estimated to have remained around a 13 percent annual rate.

A pickup

of growth in federal debt offset some slowing in nonfederal debt, as

-2KEY MONETARY POLICY AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth)

July

QIV to July

11.3

-1.5

6.4

6.8

7.0

4.9

6.8

8.9

10.3

9.1

8.8

9.7

Domestic nonfinancial debt

12.5

13.5

12.6

13.0

13.4

Bank credit

13.9

10.4

9.3

11.3

QII

7.2

6.2

6.9

June

Money and Credit Aggregates

Reserve Measures1 Nonborrowed reserves 2

7.3

Total reserves Monetary base Memo:

9.0

83.5 (24.3)

7.8

26.5

7.0

11.7

15.1 (1.2)

7.5

-1.9

8.0 8.2

(Millions of dollars)

Adjustment and seasonal borrowing

733

Excess reserves

754

Note:

-4.9 (4.4)

1857 (1043)

1428 (1012)

9173 6043

Figures in parentheses treat all discount window borrowings by Continental Illinois after May 9 as extended credit and therefore as nonborrowed reserves; such borrowings were formally classified as extended credit on June 7.

1. Growth rates of reserve measures are adjusted to remove the effects of discontinuities resulting from phased changes in reserve ratios under the Monetary Control Act. 2. Includes "other extended credit" from the Federal Reserve. 3. For the 2-week period ending August 15 adjustment and seasonal borrowing averaged $1,011 million and excess reserves $618 million.

take-over activity lessened.

M3 and domestic nonfinancial sector debt

remain above their longer-run ranges. (4) Total reserves decreased in July at about a 2 percent annual rate, after expanding rapidly over the preceding two months.

The slowdown

last month reflected a marked deceleration in growth of required reserves, given the weakness in transactions accounts, and a reduction in excess reserves from the relatively high June level.

Nonborrowed reserves plus

extended credit grew by about 1-1/4 percent in July.

In the two complete

reserve maintenance periods since the July meeting, adjustment plus seasonal borrowing has averaged close to the $1 billion level that has prevailed for some time and was used in constructing nonborrowed reserve paths.

The

federal funds rate, however, has tended to drift higher, averaging a little over 11-1/2 percent recently as compared to 11-1/4 percent at the time of the July FOMC meeting.

In light of the difficulties of Continental Bank and

strains in the financial system more generally, depository institutions-especially large banks that are dependent on managed liabilities--seem to want to avoid borrowing at the discount window as much as possible, and instead are bidding more aggressively for funds in the market. (5)

Despite rather taut money market conditions and sustained

strong credit demands, prices in stock and bond markets rose sharply during the intermeeting period.

Yields on long-term bonds have fallen by 5/8 to

3/4 of a percentage point, and stock price indexes have advanced by 7 to 8 percent on record trading volume, as the market reacted positively to interpretations of the future course of monetary policy in connection with the Humphrey-Hawkins hearing and to incoming econonic, price, and money data.

With long-term markets more receptive, new-issue activity in

the corporate bond market has increased and the Treasury's mid-quarter

-4refunding was relatively well received.

In shorter-term markets, yields

have generally declined except at the shortest end of the spectrum. Moreover, the spread of private over Treasury rates has narrowed, apparently reflecting at least in part some strengthening in investor confidence in banks.

Very recently, though, spreads have again tended to widen, as

investor nervousness has been rekindled by the difficulties of a large West Coast S&L that had been quite active in the large CD market. (6)

The dollar has risen by about 2/3 percent on a weighted aver-

age basis since the last Committee meeting.

Exchange markets have been quite

volatile amid shifting market perceptions about the implications of U.S. economic activity and Federal Reserve policy for U.S. interest rates and uncertainties about the sustainability of the new highs for the dollar that occurred during the intermeeting period.

Short-term interest differentials

showed little change over the period, while U.S. long-term nominal rates (though perhaps not real rates) fell significantly relative to foreign long-term rates.

Prospective developments (7)

The table below provides three alternative specifications for

growth in the monetary aggregates for the June-to-September period and associated ranges for the federal funds rate.

(More detailed data, including

implied growth rates for July to September, can be found in the charts and table on the following pages.)

All of the alternatives involve slower

growth in M1 over the three months than specified at the last FOMC meeting, given the contraction of that aggregate in July and the relatively short time before the end of the quarter.

Of the alternatives, the aggregate

specifications of A, which involves some easing of money market conditions, generally come closest to those adopted at the last meeting.

Alternatives

B and C contemplate unchanged and tighter market conditions respectively, with somewhat greater deviations of M1 and M2 from the July specifications. M3 growth would be broadly consistent with its July short-run path under all of the alternatives.

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Memo: July FOMC

3-1/2 6-3/4 8-3/4

5-1/2 7-1/2 9

Growth from June to September Ml M2 M3

4-1/2 7-1/4 9-1/4

Federal funds rate range

(8)

7-1/2 to 11-1/2

4 7 9 8 to 12

8-1/2 to 12-1/2

8 to 12

Under alternative B, M1 growth would be expected to pick up to

around a 6-3/4 percent annual rate in August and September, with growth larger in the latter month.

The transactions demand for M1 is expected to

be somewhat less than earlier anticipated given the somewhat slower growth in nominal GNP now projected for the third quarter.

While M1 growth from

Chart 1

Actual and Targeted M1

CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II FOMC

(FR)

Billions of dollars

-ACTUAL

LEVELS

* SHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES

1983

1984

Chart 2

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC

Actual and Targeted M2

Billions of dollars Z4UU

-ACTUAL

,9%

LEVELS

2380

* SHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES 2360

2340

2320 c

2300

2280

2260

2240

2220

2200

2180 I

N 1983

I D

I J

I M

1FiAA ~ivv

1984

Chart 3

CONFIDENTIAL

(FR)

CLASS II FOMC

Actual and Targeted M3

Billions of dollars

2960

-ACTUAL

2940

2920

2900

2880

LEVELS 9%

* SHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES

-2860

6% - 2840 -

2820

2800

2780

-2760 -

2740

2720

2700

2680 -2660

I O

I N

1983

I J

I F

I M

I A

I M

I J

1984

I A

I S

L 0

2640

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

Monthly Levels 1984--April May June July August September

Alt. A ------

Alt. B ------

Alt. C ------

Alt. A ------

Alt. B ------

Alt. C ------

Alt. A ------

Alt. B ------

Alt. C ------

535.4 541.1 546.2

2242.9 2258.6 2271.7

2790.0 2815.9 2837.3

545.5 548.0 552.3

545.5 548.0 551.7

545.5 548.0 551.0

2281.0 2293.4 2312.3

2281.0 2293.4

2281.0 2293.4 2309.5

2858.1 2877.4 2902.9

2858.1 2877.4 2900.8

2858.1 2877.4 2898.7

10.7 11.1

9.1

10.7 11.1 9.1

2310.7

Growth Rates Monthly 1984--April May June July August September

1984 June to Sept. 1984 July to Sept.

0.7 12.8 11.3

7.0 8.4 7.0

10.7 11.1 9.1

-1.5 5.5 9.4

-1.5 5.5 8.1

-1.5

5.5 6.6

4.9 6.5 9.9

4.9 6.5 9.1

4.9 6.5 8.4

8.8 8.1 10.6

8.8 8.1 9.8

8.8 8.1 8.9

4.5 7.5

4.0 6.8

3.5 6.0

7.2 8.2

6.9 7.8

6.7 7.5

9.3 9.4

9.0 9.0

8.7 8.5

7.2 6.2 5.7

7.2 6.2 5.5

7.2 6.2 5.4

6.9 6.8 6.7

6.9 6.8 6.6

6.9 6.8 6.5

8.9 10.3 9.3

6.7

6.5

6.4

7.2

7.1

7.0

9.8

Growth Rates Quarterly Average 1984--Ql

Q2 03

8.9 10.3 9.2

8.9 10.3 9.1

Memo: '83 Q4 to Sept.'84

9.7

9.6

June to September would be only about 4 percent at an annual rate under this alternative, basis.

it would grow about 5-1/2 percent on a quarterly average

M1 velocity would increase at a 2-1/2 percent annual rate in the

third quarter, considerably below the rate of increase in the first half of the year, but still

probably slightly above the underlying trend at

unchanged interest rates.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, demand

for M1 might be expected to pick up and velocity growth to moderate a bit further as the restraining effects of previous interest rate increases on money demand diminish.

With interest rates remaining roughly around

current levels into the fourth quarter, as assumed in the staff GNP forecast, M1 growth for QIV 1983 to QIV 1984 might be around 6-1/2 percent. (9)

The more rapid growth expected for M1 over the balance of

the quarter would also be reflected in sme acceleration of M2 from its recent reduced pace.

But for the June-to-September

interval M2 growth is

expected to remain somewhat below the 7-1/2 percent rate specified by the Committee.

M3 growth, meanwhile, should remain around the 9 percent rate

of June and July, following its unexpectedly rapid growth in the spring. (10)

Debt of nonfinancial sectors is likely to grow less in

the current quarter than in the first half of the year, in part because of reduced merger-related financing.

However, underlying needs of

businesses for external finance should increase as capital spending outstrips internal cash generation, and federal government credit usage will remain high. moderating, though.

Consumer and mortgage credit demands appear to be We are assuming that mortgage markets and confidence

in thrift institutions generally will not be adversely affected to any significant extent by repercussions from the Financial Corporation of America (FCA)

situation.

-8(11)

The specifications of alternative B assume borrowing at

the discount window remains around $1 billion.

Given the recent attitudes

of banks toward the discount window, this is expected to be consistent with federal funds trading around 11-1/2 percent or a bit higher.

Should

uncertainties in connection with FCA raise broader questions about the stability of the banking and financial system, even more conservative reserve management might be expected, and the funds rate could run higher relative to the level of borrowing or to free reserves.

If the FCA

situation is well contained, though, and incoming economic data suggest a moderation of credit demands, the funds rate could fall back some, given prevailing levels of borrowing, as market uncertainties diminish.

Over

the July-to-September period total reserves can be expected to increase at about a 2-1/2 percent annual rate, while nonborrowed reserves would rise less. (12)

There is little reason to expect the average level of

short-term rates to change much over the balance of the quarter under alternative B, but the structure of these rates could well vary, depending on such factors as the evolution of the FCA situation and the progress of negotiations with Latin American borrowers.

It seems most probable that

lingering uncertainties would keep quality spreads, which have narrowed modestly on balance since the last meeting, from improving further. Long-term bond markets, too, are unlikely to continue the improvement that was seen in the early part of the intermeeting period, unless economic activity appears to be much weaker than anticipated.

A noticeable

back-up in rates cannot be ruled out in the weeks ahead, particularly should money growth accelerate more rapidly than projected in the context of strong economic indicators.

(13)

The specifications of alternative A are designed to bring

M1 and M2 closer to the path adopted at the previous Committee meeting, while not leading to much more rapid M3 and credit growth.

They involve

an easing of bank reserve positions, with borrowing dropping to around $750 million.

Nonborrowed reserves would be expected to increase at about

a 6 percent annual rate, and total reserves at about half that pace, over the July-to-September period.

Federal funds may trade between 10-1/2

and 11 percent, perhaps not immediately but over time as the lower level of borrowing persists.

Such a reduction in bank reserve pressures does

not appear to be anticipated by the market, and probably would extend the recent rally in bond and stock markets, as well as lead to a decline in short-term rates and a narrowing of quality spreads.

The Treasury bill

rate is likely to fall below 10 percent, and 3-month CDs to around 11 percent.

The decline in interest rates would relieve some of the immediate

pressures on thrift earnings and reduce tensions generally in the financial system.

As interest rates fell, the dollar would tend to depreciate on

foreign exchange markets. (14)

The easier reserve and market conditions that are expected

to develop under alternative A would probably have their greatest impact on money growth in the final months of the year.

The demand for money

would be stimulated by the lagged effect of lower market interest rates and by transactions needs associated with somewhat faster expansion in nominal GNP than in the staff forecast.

Thus, alternative A seems most consistent

with Ml growth more clearly in the upper portion of its range for this year and M2 growth around its midpoint.

Expansion of both M3 and debt is

more likely to be somewhat further above the upper ends of their respective long-run ranges than under alternative B as private credit demands respond to the stronger economy.

-10(15)

Alternative C calls for sane tightening in money market

conditions over the period ahead, should it be desired to place even more constraint on the growth of credit.

Borrowing at the discount window

would be expected to increase to $1-1/4 to $1-1/2 billion and nonborrowed reserves to decline at around a 6 percent annual rate.

The federal

funds rate would probably rise to the 12-1/4 to 12-1/2 percent area, and other market interest rates also would adjust upward, with Treasury bill rates climbing into the 10-1/2 to 11 percent range, and CD rates perhaps rising even more rapidly to around 12 to 12-1/2 percent as strains on the financial system increased.

The associated increases in the prime rate,

bond yields, and mortgage rates would probably soon restrain credit growth and spending relative to the staff's current projection.

The

dollar would tend to appreciate further on exchange markets, at least temporarily. (16)

Such an approach would be expected to lead to growth

of M1 and M2 significantly below the short-run path specified at the last Committee meeting.

For the year as a whole, though, M1 growth would

probably be around the midpoint of its long-run range.

M2 over the year

would likely be well in the lower half of its long-run range, while M3 could be expected to fall back faster toward the upper limit of its range as the tightening of credit markets led to reduced credit demands. In addition, M3 might be restrained by shifts out of CDs into Treasury securities if rising interest rates worked to undermine public confidence in the financial position of banks and thrifts.

-11-

Directive language (17)

Proposed language for the operational paragraph is shown

below, with alternatives for describing the degree of pressure on reserve positions and the symmetry of any adjustment in reserve pressures to variations in the aggregates. In the short run, the Committee seeks to DECREASE SLIGHTLY (ALT. A)/maintain (ALT. B)/INCREASE SLIGHTLY (ALT. C) existing pressures on reserve positions.

This action is expected to be

consistent with growth in M1, M2, and M3 at annual rates of around [DEL: 5-1/2, 7-1/2, and 9] ____, ____, AND ____percent respectively during

the period from June to September.

Somewhat greater reserve restraint

would be acceptable in the event of more substantial growth of the monetary aggregates, while somewhat lesser restraint might [WOULD] be acceptable if growth of the monetary aggregates slowed significantly.

In either case, such a change would be considered only in

the context of appraisals of the continuing strength of the business expansion, inflationary pressures, financial market conditions, and the rate of credit growth.

The Chairman may call for Committee

consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated 8 12] to with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range of [DEL: percent. ____ TO ____

Selected Interest Rates Percent Short-Term

___

CDs secondary

aTreasury bills secondary market

Period

funds t

3-month

1-year

-month

3.nonth

3 --

c pom

money markel

papret 1-month

mutual fund

loan

bank

U S. government constant

___ Long Term municorporate

maturity yields

-.-

3-year r---

10year 1 10

cipal

conven-

oered 12

Buyer

at S&Lo

Bond

20,

1984

home motgages

A utility

recently

30-year 11

Auguas

blonal

FHAVA lling

FNMA 1 year

1983--High Low

10.21 8.42

9.49 7.63

9.64 7.72

9.79 7.82

9.93 8.15

9.85 8.02

8.79 7.71

11.50 10.50

11.57 9.40

12.14 10.18

12.11 10.32

13.42 11.64

10.56 9.21

13.89 12.55

13.50 11.50

12.50 10.49

1984--High Low

11. 63 9.41

10.49 8.84

10.63 8.94

11.09 9.01

11.71 9.35

11.15 9.16

10.55 8.70

13.00 11.00

13.44 10.87

13.84 11.62

13.81 11.69

15.30 12.83

11.44 9.86

14.68 13.19

14.00 12.50

13.70 11.25

9.37 9.56 9.45

9.08 9.34 9.00

9.26 9.51 9.15

9.34 9.60 9.27

9.50 9.77 9.39

9.15 9.41 9.19

8.34 8.69 8.77

10.50 10.89 11.00

10.90 11.30 11.07

11.38 11.85 11.65

11.40 11.82 11.63

12.79 13.16 12.98

10.06 10.25 10.20

13.42 13.81 13.73

12.30 13.38 13.00

11.93 12.16 11.86

Oct. Nov. Dec.

9.48 9.34 9.47

8.64 8.76 9.00

8.83 8.93 9.17

8.98 9.08 9.24

9.18 9.36 9.69

9.03 9.10 9.56

8.67 8.55 8.69

11.00 11.00 11.00

10.87 10.96 11.13

11.54 11.69 11.83

11.58 11.75 11.88

12.89 13.14 13.29

10.14 10.22 10.40

13.54 13.44 13.42

13.00 12.50 12.50

11.40 11.40 11.56

1984--Jan. Feb.

Mar.

9.56 9.59 9.91

8.90 9.09 9.52

9.02 9.18 9.66

9.07 9.20 9.67

9.42 9.54 10.08

9.23 9.35 9.81

8.80 8.72 8.91

11.00 11.00 11.21

10.93 11.05 11.59

11.67 11.84 12.32

11.75 11.95 12.38

12.99 13.05 13.63

10.03 10.00 10.37

13.37 13.23 13.39

12.50 12.50 12.70

11.45 11.38 11.91

Apr. Kay June

10.29 10.32 11.06

9.69 9.83 9.87

9.84 10.31 10.51

9.95 10.57 10.93

10.41 11.11 11.34

10.17 10.38 10.82

9.29 9.52 9.92

11.93 12.39 12.60

11.98 12.75 13.18

12.63 13.41 13.56

12.65 13.43 13.44

13.96 14.79 15.00

10.26 10.88 11.07

13.65 13.94 14.42

13.00 13.94 14.00

12.30 12.83 13.45

July

11.23

10.12

10.53

10.89

11.56

11.06

10.25p

13.00

13.08

13.36

13.21

14.93

10.84

14.67

14.00

13.59

1983--July Aug. Sept.

1984--June

6 13 20 27

10.72 10.85 11.49 11.27

9.78 9.94 9.91 9.81

10.48 10.56 10.45 10.55

10.81 10.91 10.83 11.09

11.17 11.16 11.21 11.67

10.44 10.72 10.86 11.06

9.74 9.87 10.00 10.04

12.50 12.50 12.50 12.71

13.04 13.11 13.06 13.44

13.57 13.51 13.38 13.75

13.52 13.41 13.27 13.56

14.82 14.78 15.21 15.28

11.16 10.97 10.94 11.19

14.33 14.47 14.49 14.50

14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00

13.35 13.40 13.40 13.60

July

4 11 18 25

10.91 11.25 11.21 11.19

9.87 10.03 10.06 10.20

10.45 10.48 10.52 10.56

1,1.08 10.97 10.91 10.85

11.71 11.69 11.54 11.53

11.11 11.15 11.05 11.02

10.05 10.21 10.33 10.39

13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00

13.44 13.29 13.10 12.99

13.83 13.62 13.35 13.27

13.59 13.40 13.15 13.17

15.30 14.88 14.85 14.54

11.11 10.88 10.75 10.62

14.66 14.68 14.66 14.67

14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00

13.70 13.60 13.55 13.50

August

I 8 15 22 29

11.53 11.59 11.63

10.34 10.49 10.36

10.60 10.63 10.53

10.73 10.72 10.64

11.38 11.41 11.43

10.99 11.06 11.15

10.44 10.55 10.55

13.00 13.00 13.00

12.72 12.48 12.43

12.92 12.69 12.69

12.89 12.65 12.51

14.10 14.08 14.16

10.39

14.68

10.29 10.47

14.54 14.39

14.00 14.00 13.50

13.35 13.25 13.25

11.57 11.74

10.43 10.2u

10.'.4 Ii. ,0

10.61 10.61

10.33

10.51

10.63

11.37 11.50 11.48

11.13 11.19 11.24

13.00 13.00 13.00

12.41 12.46 12.45p

12.68 12.70 12.68p

12.47 12.51 12.47p

Dilly--Aug.

1 I1

ll.

NOTE Weekly data for columns 1 througn 11-are stalemenl week averages Data in column 7 are taken from Donoghue's Money Fund Report Columns 12 and 13 are I-day quotes forFriday and Thursday, respectively. followng the end at the statement week. Column 13 is the Bond Buyer revenue index. Column 14 is an average l contract inlerels rateson new commitments forconventional first monrgages with 80 percent loan-to-value

ratios at a sample of savings and loan associations on the Friday tollowing the end of the slalemenl week Alter November 30, 1963, column 16 refers only to VA-guaranteed loans. Column 16 is the initial gross yield posted by FNMA, on the Friday following the end ol the statement week, in is purchase program for adluslablerate home morigages having rte and payment adlustments once a year. FR 367(4/84)

Security Dealer Positions Millions of dollars August 13.

17,005 8.839

Tresury bills 1.654 -11,307

Forward and Futures Positions I Teur¢y coupons under over fderal ye 1 year agency 14 1,516 -907 -95 -3.270 -8,001

17,554 11,086

14.861 11.263

8,272 -13,048

22 -109

140 2,639 6,344

6,976 8.093 9,285

10,275 10.361 13.138

-2,635 -1,861 -7,309

609 934 1.165

3,390 325 -831

10,255 9,451 11,568

14,242 15,302 15.449

10,815 9,658 4,627

1.083 953 811

667 -1.543 -2.626

1L,398 12,530 16.164

14,463 14,191 16.515

2,929 -7,091

-2.628

-32 -291 -595

-1.643 -1,754 -3.224

12.436*

-1.879*

-614* -427 -365 -647 -843

pi Net

Period

Cash Positions 2 Treasury coupons under over 1 yea 1 year

Treasury

Total

bills

1983--High Low

20,858 -296

13.273 -3.461

1.579 -687

8,778 -3.148

federal agency 12,088 4,013

1984--High

19,053 5,047

6,765

-12.140

1,310 -843

2.477 -4,785

7.992 13,669 16,971

4,076 5,929 8,011

956 748 223

14.672 15,981 18,172

9.694 10,762 8.653

12,470 9.266 15,956

Apr. hay June July

Low 1983--July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1984--Jan. Feb. Mar.

1984--June

6 13 20 27

19,053 18,627 15,970 14,023

-4,432 -1,350 -712 -4,085

July

4 11 18 25

13.554 10.660 11,822 12.582*

-2.904 -4,368 -2,892 -10*

Aug

1 8 15 22 29

14.043* 14.202* 10,466*

2,666* 4,489*

private short-term

-4.411 -9,564

-7,223 -10,402

-6 -3 -2

-1.282 -2.706 -2.613

-1.836 -3.634 -5,018

-8.673 -5.899

-9,132 -7,993 -5.549

-12 -2 -2

-1,667 -1,022 669

-5,909

-6,798 -6,331 -5,596

12,786 13,336 12,763

-10.846 -8,784 -1,027

-15 -38 -10

-116 23 1,045

-7.474

-8.192 -9,552

-5.829 -8,677 -6,239

16,649 16,852 16,003

13,063 12.525 14,475

2,106 5.489 2,204

-13 -10 -14

476 359 1.422

-9.406 -9,650 -9,934

-5,453 -2,237 -1,193

-3,275*

16,059*

14,755*

-2.517*

-86*

2,828*

-9,678*

-3,157*

-2,207 -3,391 -3,419 -2,832

17,285 16.547 15.714 14,995

14,147 14,318 14,861 14,307

6,029 4.987 -149 -604

-37 -41 -2 -8

1,033 1.088 364 2,272

-10,257 -10,402 -9,862 -9.183

-2,082 -2.766 -178 5

-1,038 -669 -553 -663*

-5,451 -3.023 -3,625 -3,862*

15.961 16.887 16.227 15,157*

14.868 15,236 15,101 13,933*

596 -2,326 -2,664 -3.280*

42 -10 -96 -144*

3,265 2,391 2.477 3.031*

-10.470 -10.576 -9,873 -8,661*

-1.315 -2,877 -2,280 -2,921*

-264* 18* -95*

-1,342*

15.997*

14,669*

-3,137*

-147*

3,432*

-9,071*

-6,096*

-2,690* 222*

17.418*

15.587*

15,524* 15,466*

-2,505* -8491*

-174* -225*

2,765* 1,992*

-9,861* -8,223*

mitments to buy (sll)securities on an outright basis for Immediate delivery (5 business days or less), and certain "when-issued" securities for delayed delivery (more than 5 business days). Futures and forward positions include all other commitments involving delayed delivery; futures contracts are arranged on organized exchanges. 1. Cash plus forward plus futures positions in Treasury, federal agency, and private short-term

securities. 2. Adjusted for reverses to maturity and related transactions. * Strictly confidential. L,-,. than $500,000.

private short.lrm

2,272 -933

NOTE: Government securities dealer cash positions consist of securities already delivered, com-

1984

5 -9.819

-5,090

-5,445

-7,354

-8,959* -10,256*

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

Net Changes

System Holdings of Securities 1

Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted

Treasury bills 2

Period

Treasury coupons net purchases

change

wthin

6,243 -3,052 5.337 5,698 13,068

603 912 294 312 484

5,116 4,617 4.738

5-10

over 10

3.456 2,138 1.702 1,794 1.896

523 703 393 388 890

173 156 155

595 481 820

-1,168 491

198

Feb. Mar.

-1,060 3,159

Apr. May June

3,283 -3,593 801

198 -

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983--QTR. II III IV 1984--QTR. I II

July 1984--MAY

Net change outrght

Net RP

1-5

5-10

over 10

total

454 811 379 307 383

5,035 4,564 2,768 2,803 3,653

131 217 133 -

317 298 360 --- 5 29 --- -24 --

454 668 494 --- 10,290 2,035 8,491 8,312 16,342

-2.597 2,462 684 1.461 -5,445

326 215 349

108 124 151

1,203 975 1.474

--- ----

--- --

6.208 5,439 6,120

-793 9,412 -10,739

808

-300 200

277

-300 1,484

--- -

-1,555 1,918

-286 70

--- --- --

-1,098 3,149

-8,347 6,807

808 -

200 --

277 --- 1,484 --

--- --- --

--- 4,764 -3,633 786

7,286 -3,643 -3,572

-1,499

-656

----

278 -1,214 -2,020 -959 385

4,978 -5,962 -5,689 2,691 2,163

--- --- --- --- -

--- 483 456

-1,402 386

278 -1,214 -1,980 -959 385

6 13

497 458

4 11 18 25

--- --- --- --

-152

AUG.

1 8 15

-1,346 -1,194 -272

LEVEL--Aug.

67.4

17.7

JULY

with

1-5

2 9 16 23 30

JUNE

Federal agencies net purchases

total

1-year

-1,497

August 20, 1984

--- 1-year

hns

--- --- --

--- --

-1

--- ----

----

--- --- -

34.0

14.8

2.4

4.3

1.3

19.4

85.9

5,938

-6,737

-152

904 1.978 8 -5,477

-1351 -1,194 -272

2,530 502 -5,699

8.5

161.8

-2.9

5 In addition to the net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' 1 Change from end-of-period to end-of-penod. acceptances, direct Treasury borrowing from the System and redemptions (-) of agency and Trea2 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions, sury coupon issues. 3 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in ex8 Includes changes in RPs (+), matched sale-purchase transactions (-), and matched purchase-sale change for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon transactions (+). issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. 4 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. FR 1368 (7181)

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1984, August 20). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19840821

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19840821,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1984},
  month = {Aug},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19840821},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}