Bluebook
Prefatory Note
The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.
1
In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.
December 14, 1984
Strictly Confidential (FR)
Class I FOMC
MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) December 14,
CLASS I - FOMC
1984
MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Recent developments (1)
M1 increased at an 8.6 percent annual rate in November,
offsetting the sharp October contraction; transactions deposits surged last month, but currency growth again was sluggish.
Preliminary data for early
December suggest at this point moderate growth for the month,
leaving expan-
sion of this aggregate over the September-to-December period a little the 3 percent minimum rate specified by the FOMC. basis, M1 in
under
On a quarterly average
the fourth quarter will grow at only about a 1-1/2 percent
annual rate, well below predictions of econometric models given estimates of income and the recent decline in
interest rates, and velocity would in-
crease at an annual rate of about 4 percent.
For the year 1984, M1 likely
will expand by about 5 percent on a fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter basis, in the lower half of its
4 to 8 percent longer-run range,
as shown in the
table below. 1984 Growth Rates and Ranges (Measured QIV to QIV)
FOMC range Actual e/
M1
M2
M3
4 to 8
6 to 9
6 to 9
4.9
7.5
9.9
Debt
8 to 11 13.3
e/ Estimated. (2)
M2 surged in November at a 15 percent annual rate, reflecting
strengthening of its nontransactions component as well as of M1.
The non-
transactions component was swelled by very heavy inflows to MMDAs and money
funds, whose yields lagged declines on market rates. expanding in December at close to the November pace,
M2 appears to be and growth over the
- 2 -
KEY MONETARY POLICY AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth) Sept. Oct.
Nov.
-7.4
8.6
QIV to
QIV
to
Nov.
Nov.
QIV1
to
Money and Credit Aggregates
Domestic nonfinancial debt
4.9
6.0
14.9
10.5
7.5
7.5
10.7
15.9
13.4
10.0
9.9
11.4
14.2
12.9
13.4
13.3
12.1
9.7
10.5
10.4
Bank credit Reserve Measures
5.0
2
Nonborrowed reserves 3
-18.2
17.4
-0.5
5.5
5.6
Total reserves
-12.3
11.3
-0.6
5.4
5.4
6.8
6.9
Monetary base Memo:
3.9
3.1
(Millions of dollars)
Adjustment and seasonal borrowing
960
781
Excess reserves
607
683
1. QIV to QIV growth rates incorporate staff projections for December. 2. Growth rates of reserve measures are adjusted to remove the effects of discontinuities resulting from phased changes in reserve ratios under the Monetary Control Act. 3. Includes "other extended credit" from the Federal Reserve. NOTE: Monthly reserve measures, including excess reserves and borrowing, are calculated by prorating averages for 2-week reserve maintenance periods that overlap months.
-3September-to-December period is likely to be well in excess of the FOMC's 7-1/2 percent short-run path.
For the year as a whole, the staff estimates
that M2 will have increased by about 7-1/2 percent, at the middle of its longer-run range. (3)
M3 grew at a 16 percent annual rate in November, spurred by
expansion in its non-M2 as well as M2 components.
The non-M2 component was
dominated by flows into institution-only money funds.
Issuance of new CDs
by commercial banks virtually ceased, given the robust expansion in core deposits and a large inflow of Treasury deposits, but thrift institutions remained heavy issuers of large time deposits.
Although partial data suggest
some moderation in M3 growth in December, this aggregate is running considerably above its short-run September-to-December path of 9 percent, and for the year will grow around 10 percent, above its 6 to 9 percent range. (4)
Expansion in domestic nonfinancial sector debt is estimated
(on the basis of partial data) to have accelerated to about a 14 percent annual rate in November, reflecting a pick-up in federal government borrowing and continued rapid growth in the debt of nonfederal sectors.
Corporate bond
offerings in the domestic and Euromarkets were at record levels, and business borrowing in short-term markets also was sizable, in part to finance new mergers; sales of municipal revenue bonds continued heavy as year-end approached.
Borrowing by households is estimated to have remained near the
substantial third-quarter volume, but down from the very rapid pace of the first half of the year.
Total nonfinancial sector debt is expected to grow
at about a 13-1/4 percent rate in 1984; perhaps about one percentage point of this growth can be attributed to financing of corporate mergers, share repurchases, and buyouts in excess of the usual volume of such activity.
-4(5)
Nonborrowed reserves paths for the intermeeting period were
initially constructed assuming $575 million of adjustment and seasonal borrowing at the discount window; in view of the weakness in M1, as well as further evidence of sluggish economic expansion, subdued price increases, and the continued strength of the dollar on exchange markets, the borrowing assumption was reduced to $500 million, and then to $400 million in the course of the intermeeting period.
Actual borrowing came in somewhat above
the amount assumed in the latter part of November, but free reserves increased about as implied by reserve paths, as excess reserves were higher than anticipated.
The actual average level of borrowing fell $180 million in November,
contributing to an increase in nonborrowed reserves of 17-1/2 percent at an annual rate; total reserves grew 11-1/4 percent in November.
So far in the
current reserve period borrowing has averaged under $300 million. (6)
The decline in borrowing along with a reduction in the dis-
count rate from 9 to 8-1/2 percent on November 21 led to a drop in the federal funds rate from about 9-3/4 percent at the time of the November FOMC meeting to around 8-3/4 percent recently, with trading in the last two days below 8-1/2 percent. down.
Other market interest rates also have continued to move
Short-term interest rates have declined another 45 to 60 basis points.
Declines were smaller in intermediate- and long-term credit markets, which have been affected by uncertainties about future federal budget deficits and at times by economic indicators that were stronger than expected.
Since the
November meeting, rates in the note and bond market are down only a little at the long end, while dropping about 50 basis points at the shorter end. The prime rate was trimmed by a total of 75 basis points during the period, but remained high relative to the cost of funds. (7)
The dollar has appreciated, on a weighted average basis, by
about 4-1/2 percent since the last FOMC meeting and is currently only one
-5percent below its October peak, even though short-term interest differentials in favor of dollar assets have narrowed.
-6-
Prospective developments (8)
The table below presents three alternative specifications
for growth of the monetary aggregates from November to March, along with associated federal funds rate ranges.
A November base is suggested in
view of the considerable uncertainties this early in the month about the December level.
(More detailed data, including implied growth rates to
March from projected December levels and from the estimated QIV '84 level, can be found on the charts and table on the following pages.)
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
8 9-1/2 9
6-3/4 8-1/2 8-1/2
5-1/2 7-1/2 8
6 to 10
7 to 11
8 to 12
Growth from Nov. to March M1 M2 M3 Federal funds rate range (9)
The aggregates specifications of alternative B, which are
expected to be consistent with maintenance of about the current degree of pressure on reserve positions, would place all of the money supply measures in March close to the upper limits of their tentative longer-run ranges for 1985 established last July.
Growth of M1 under this alternative from
November to March would be expected to be at about a 6-3/4 percent annual rate.
The acceleration of M1 growth from the slower pace that has pre-
vailed on average since around mid-year reflects strengthened transactions demands, given the projected pickup in GNP growth, as well as the lagged effects of the sizable drop in short-term rates over recent months.
The
income velocity of M1 would be about unchanged in the first quarter. Some models, on the other hand, suggest a drop in income velocity, associated with higher money growth at current interest rates, because they embody greater responsiveness of M1 to earlier interest rate declines.
Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates
Monthly Levels
M1 M2 M3 ------------------------------------ ------------------------- ------------------------Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C -----------------
1984--October November December
545.5 549.4 552.6
545.5 549.4 552.6
545.5 549.4 552.6
2317.4 2346.2 2371.8
2317.4 2346.2 2371.8
2317.4 2346.2 2371.8
2916.3 2955.0 2983.7
2916.3 2955.0 2983.7
2916.3 2955.0 2983.7
1985--January February March
556.1 559.9 564.1
555.6 558.6 561.7
555.1 557.4 559.5
2389.6 2405.9 2420.5
2386.6 2400.4 2412.7
2383.7 2395.0 2404.9
3005.6 3025.6 3043.7
3003.6 3022.1 3038.7
3001.6 3018.6 3033.8
1984--October November December
-7.4 8.6 7.0
-7.4 8.6 7.0
-7.4 8.6 7.0
6.0 14.9 13.1
6.0 14.9 13.1
6.0 14.9 13.1
10.7 15.9 11.7
10.7 15.9 11.7
10.7 15.9 11.7
1985--January February March
7.5 8.2 9.0
6.5 6.5 6.7
5.5 5.0 4.5
9.0 8.2 7.3
7.5 6.9 6.1
6.0 5.7 5.0
8.8 8.0 7.2
8.0 7.4 6.6
7.2 6.8 6.0
Sept. 84 to Dec. 84 Nov. 84 to Mar. 85 Dec. 84 to Mar. 85 Q4 83 to Q4 84 Q4 84 to Mar. 85
2.7 8.0 8.3 4.9 8.1
2.7 6.7 6.6 4.9 6.8
2.7 5.5 5.0 4.9 5.6
11.4 9.5 8.2 7.5 9.6
11.4 8.5 6.9 7.5 8.6
11.4 7.5 5.6 7.5 7.6
12.9 9.0 8.0 9.9 9.4
12.9 8.5 7.4 9.9 8.8
12.9 8.0 6.7 9.9 8.3
1984--Ql Q2 Q3 Q4
7.2 6.2 4.5 1.5
7.2 6.2 4.5 1.5
7.2 6.2 4.5 1.5
6.9 6.9 6.2 9.1
6.9 6.9 6.2 9.1
6.9 6.9 6.2 9.1
8.9 10.3 8.2 10.8
8.9 10.3 8.2 10.8
8.9 10.3 8.2 10.8
1985--01
7.9
6.8
6.0
10.3
9.3
8.4
9.9
9.5
9.0
Growth Rates Monthly
Growth Rates Quarterly Average.
Memo: Tentative 1985 ranges Q4 84 to Q4 85
4 to 7
6 to 8.5
6 to 9
Chart1
Actual and Targeted M1
Billions of dollars 600 ACTUAL LEVEL --- ESTIMATED LEVEL * SHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES
-
590
S7%
S..
/
7
.<
..
.
c/.
.
.
''""%
.' "
/
o
.,
570
4
-
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A
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F
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J 1985
530
520 A
S
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D
Chart 2
Actual and Targeted M2
Billions of dollars 2600 -ACTUAL LEVEL --ESTIMATED LEVEL * SHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES
,%'86%
•
"J"
2550
2500
.
6%
2450 'A
2400
2350 6%
,
2300
2250
2200
1
O
1983
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1984
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Chart 3
Actual and Targeted M3
Billions of dollars 13300
-ACTUAL --
LEVEL
ESTIMATED LEVEL9% SSHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES
3200 °*/
,3
6%
3100
-13000 .9% ..-
-12900
-1 2800
-12700
I O
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I
1983
0
II
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1984
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1985
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2600
-8We have assumed, however, a more moderate M1 growth partly because its recent behavior suggests the possibility that the demand for narrow money may have become a little less responsive to interest rate changes. (10)
Despite the pickup in M1 growth under this alternative
during the first quarter, the broad monetary aggregates are expected to decelerate from their unusually rapid rate of late 1984 to a pace more nearly in keeping with growth rates prior to the fourth quarter of this year, and in the case of M3 somewhat below such rates.
Inflows to MMDAs
and MMMFs should drop off considerably as the first quarter progresses as yields on these instruments decline into more normal alignment with market interest rates.
As a partial offset to reduced growth in core
deposits, CD issuance by banks is expected to pick up, after showing virtually no growth late this year.
We do not expect the broad aggregates
to be affected to any significant extent by the reduction from $2,500 to $1,000 in the minimum balance requirement for MMDAs and super-NOW accounts. Transfers into these accounts are likely to be relatively small, with the great bulk coming from other components of M2.
We have also assumed a
minimal net effect on M1 as inflows from non-M1 deposits into new superNOWs may be about offset by shifts out of smaller transactions accounts into new MMDAs. (11)
The growth of debt of nonfinancial sectors in the first
quarter of next year, although slowing somewhat from the pace of late 1984, may also be around the top of its tentative 8 to 11 percent range.
In
part, the moderation in credit growth projected for early next year reflects a drop in tax-exempt borrowing by state and local governments and businesses, following a surge in the fourth quarter in advance of various legislative year-end deadlines.
In addition, growth of Treasury
-9-
debt, while remaining large, is expected to moderate sane from its recent advanced pace.
Underlying business needs for credit are expected to
continue at close to the level of the last half of 1984, and recent announcements seem to indicate that borrowing to finance corporate mergers and share retirements will remain sizable in the months ahead.
The pace
of mortgage lending to households, which had been slowing since the spring of 1984, is projected to stabilize in response to the easier conditions that have developed in that market. (12)
Discount window borrowing under alternative B is expected
to average around $400 million.
That level of borrowing appears to be
somewhat in excess of the likely "frictional" level, which now is probably around $150 to $250 million.
Seasonal borrowing has declined to close to
$100 million since the last FOMC meeting in accord with its normal seasonal pattern and in response to the slimmer spread between market and discount rates.
Under these circumstances, federal funds might average mostly in
a range around 8-3/4 percent.
Nonborrowed reserves would be expected to
increase at a 16 percent annual rate, and total reserves at a 12-1/2 percent rate over the November-to-March period. (13)
Short-term rates are not likely to show much change on
balance over the intermeeting period under alternative B, with the 3-month Treasury bill rate generally in an 8-1/8 to 8-3/8 percent range; the prime rate may drop a little further, given current rate relationships.
In
long-term markets, yields could move somewhat higher should there be no real progress toward putting together a credible deficit reduction package, if there were signs of strengthened economic activity, and if M1 growth were sustained as expected under alternative B.
Mortgage rates may
stabilize in the period immediately ahead, and could begin to rise, particularly should bond rates turn up as the first quarter progresses.
- 10 -
(14)
Alternative A involves growth in the aggregates that
would bring them above the upper limits of their tentative longer-run ranges (the width of the ranges of course being narrow early in the year).
This
alternative may also be viewed as compensating in some degree for the recent shortfall in M1 growth.
For instance, the 8 percent growth of M1
over November to March that is specified would bring it by March to a level that would be near the midpoint of the FOMC's tentative long-run growth range if that range were based not on the actual fourth-quarter average but on the fourth-quarter midpoint level of the 1984 long-run range.
The more rapid growth of M2 under this alternative would reflect,
in addition to faster expansion of its M1 component, continued strong inflows to MMDAs and money market mutual funds, given the further drop assumed in market rates and the lag in reduction of yields on these instruments. (15)
The money supply specifications of alternative A are
expected to entail an increase in total reserves of about 15 percent at an annual rate from November to March, accompanied by a drop in the funds rate to 8 percent or a little below.
Absent a decline in the discount
rate, discount window borrowing is likely to be at a bare minimum, and excess reserves perhaps somewhat higher than usual, with nonborrowed reserves rising at about a 21 percent annual rate through March.
If
the discount rate were reduced from the present 8-1/2 percent level, reserve growth consistent with this alternative could be accomplished with somewhat less expansion in nonborrowed reserves than otherwise. Under this alternative, the 3-month Treasury bill rate may drop to around 7-1/2 percent, but yield declines in long-term markets may be more limited. The dollar probably would come under downward pressure in foreign exchange
- 11 -
markets, although any depreciation would be moderated if foreign monetary authorities allowed their domestic rates to fall as well under the circumstances. (16)
Alternative C is designed to hold growth of M1 and M2 to
rates close to the midpoints of their tentative long-run ranges and is expected to involve some tightening of reserve conditions.
Borrowing
might rise back toward $800 million, with the federal funds rate returning to the 9-1/2 to 10 percent area.
Nonborrowed and total reserves would
increase at rates of around 10 percent from November to March.
Such a
change in reserve conditions at this time would be quite unexpected by market participants, and both short- and long-term rates would back up considerably, with Treasury bill rates rising almost a percentage point to 9 percent or a bit higher.
Rates on private instruments might increase
by even more should investor concerns about creditworthiness be revived. The dollar would probably rise further on foreign exchange markets.
- 12 -
Directive language (17)
Proposed language for the operational paragraph, with
alternatives, is shown below.
The language in brackets is proposed
should the Committee wish to provide flexibility on the up side for growth in M1 in light of the currently estimated shortfall over the fourth quarter relative to the FOMC's original expectation for that period, as was done in the November directive.
The bracketed language
would seem to be more relevant to alternatives B or C, since alternative A contains a growth rate for M1 from November to March that, as described in paragraph (14),
already takes more account of the shortfall.
In the implementation of policy in the short run, the Ccmmittee seeks to reduce somewhat (alt. A)/MAINTAIN (alt. B)/ INCREASE SOMEWHAT (alt. C) existing pressures on reserve positions. This action is expected to be consistent with growth of M1, M2, and 7-1/2 and M3 at annual rates of around [DEL:
9] ____,____, and ____percent,
September to December] NOVEMBER RESPECTIVELY, during the period from[DEL: M1is TO MARCH. [DEL:
the expected to growover
rate annual an at
anticipatedview the of earlierin
ofaround than less 3percent,
of growth rapid more decline, that
of light In October. in decline
M1would acceptable.] be
period
[SOMEWHAT MORE RAPID GROWTH OF M1 WOULD BE
ACCEPTABLE IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED SHORTFALL IN GROWTH FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER RELATIVE TO THE COMMITTEE'S EXPECTATIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.]
Lesser restraint on reserve positions
would be sought in the event of significantly slower growth in the monetary aggregates, evaluated in relation to the strength of the business expansion and inflationary pressures, domestic and international financial market conditions, and the rate of credit growth.
- 13 -
Conversely, greater restraint might be acceptable in the event of substantially more rapid monetary growth and indications of significant strengthening of economic activity and inflationary pressures.
The
Chairman may call for Committee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range of [DEL: 7 to 11] ____
TO ____percent.
Selected Interest Rates December
Percent _L
^L ^L
Shofrt Term Treaury bills secondary market
l funds
Period
1
I O3nglm
onoth
2
3
1
1-yesa
I
CD secoMndacy market 3~ionlt
4
- -- -------------,
- .-
comm
m market mulual lund
PaPer ,h
8
----- ,-
I
----U.S. govemmmnt constant maturlty yields
bank rie p o
7
--I
3-year 9
&yea 10
30-y 11
Long Term munl cipal Bond Buyer 13
corporate A ulillly recently olered 12
17,
1984
homeot FHuA conven. lional at S&ALs 14 15
FNMA 1yu ARM 1I
1993--High Lov
10.21 8.42
9.49 7.63
9.64 7.72
9.79 7.82
9.93 8.15
9.85 8.01
8.79 7.71
11.50 10.50
11.57 9.40
12.14 10.18
12.11 10.32
13.42 11.64
10.56 9.21
13.89 12.55
13.50 11.50
12.50 10.49
1984--Hgh Low
11.77 8.70
10.65 8.36
10.76 8.50
11.09 8.72
11.71 8.84
11.35 8.64
10.72 8.69
13.00 11.00
13.44 10.60
13.84 11.30
13.81 11.36
15.30 12.77
11.44 9.86
14.68 13.19
14.00 12.50
13.70 11.05
1983--Nov. Dec.
9.34 9.47
8.76 9.00
8.93 9.17
9.08
9.36 9.69
9.10 9.56
8.55 8.69
11.00 11.00
10.96 11.13
11.69 11.83
11.75 11.88
13.14 13.29
10.22 10.40
13.44 13.42
12.50 12.50
11.40 11.56
1984--Jan. Feb. Mar.
9.56 9.59 9.91
8.90 9.09 9.52
9.02 9.18 9.66
9.07 9.20 9.67
9.42 9.54 10.08
9.23 9.35 9.81
8.80 8.72 8.91
11.00 11.00 11.21
10.93 11.05 11.59
11.67 11.84 12.32
11.75 11.95 12.38
12.99 13.05 13.63
10.03 10.00 10.37
13.37 13.23 13.39
12.50 12.50 12.70
11.45 11.38 11.91
Apr. Kay June
10.29 10.32 11.06
9.69 9.83 9.87
9.84 10.31 10.51
9.95 10.57 10.93
10.41 11.11 11.34
10.17 10.38 10.82
9.29 9.52 9.92
11.93 12.39 12.60
11.98 12.75 13.18
12.63 13.41 13.56
12.65 13.43 13.44
13.96 14.79 15.00
10.26 10.88 11.07
13.65 13.94 14.42
13.00 13.94 14.00
12.30 12.83 13.45
July Aug. Sept.
11.23 11.64 11.30
10.12 10.47 10.37
10.52 10.61 10.47
10.89 10.71 10.51
11.56 11.47 11.29
11.06 11.19 I1.11
10.30
10.58 10.62
13.00 13.00 12.97
13.08 12.50 12.34
13.36 12.72 12.52
13.21 12.54 12.29
14.93 14.12 13.86
10.84 10.40 10.54
14.67 14.47 14.35
14.00 13.70 13.50
13.59 13.27 13.15
9.99 9.43
9.74 8.61
9.87 8.81
9.93 9.01
10.38 9.18
10.05 9.01
10.16 9.41p
12.58 11.77
11.85 10.90
12.16 11.57
11.98 11.56
13.52 12.98
10.77 10.69
14.13 13.64
13.38 12.75
12.58 11.46
3 10 17 24 31
11.20 10.01 10.22 9.45 9.73
10.21 10.11 9.93 9.49 9.20
10.32 10.22 10.05 9.56 9.43
10.36 10.26 10.08 9.64 9.53
10.99 10.89 10.61 10.00 9.72
10.76 IO. 7 10.55 10.25 9.63 9.41
10.49 10.35 10.19 10.16 9.82
12.75 12.75 12.71 12.50 12.29
12.26 12.16 12.00 11.56 11.46
12.48 12.41 12.31 11.89 11.86
12.29 12.22 12.13 11.71 11.69
13.81 13.70 13.29 13.24 13.06
10.88 10.93 10.71 10.54 10.62
14.18 14.19 14.10 14.05 13.85
13.50 13.50 13.50 13.00 13.00
12.90 12.75 12.60 12.20 11.90
Noveeber
7 14 21 28
9.87 9.55 9.47 9.00
8.81 8.72 8.60 8.42
9.08 8.99 8.78 8.50
9.23 9.20 8.97 8.72
9.46 9.32 9.28 8.84
9.35 9.14 9.12 8.64
9.79 9.47 9.30 9.09
12.00 11.79 11.75 11.68
11.11 11.10 10.88 10.60
11.66 11.78 11.59 11.30
11.55 11.74 11.60 11.36
13.09 13.07 12.77 12.90
10.63 10.82 10.19 10.59
13.74 13.63 13.55 13.42
13.00 13.00 12.50 12,50
11.55 11.45 11.30 11.10
December
5 12 19 26
8.83 8.70
8.43 8.36
8.60
8.84 8.82
8.87 8.92
8.64 8.68
8.85 8.69
11.25 11.25
10.77 10.78
11.52 11.62
11.53 11.63
13.04
8.55
10.47 10.44
13.20 13.20
12.50 12.50
11.05 11.10
7 13 14
8.62 8.42 8.24p
8.35 8.29 8.11
8.61 8.45 8.25
8.87 8.78 8.52
8.94 8.81 8.75
8.69 8.62 8.59
11.25 11.25 11.25
10.85 10.72 2 10.5 p
11.70 11.79 11.57p
11.70 11.67 11.55p
Oct. Nov. October
Daily--Dec.
9.24
NOTE: Weekly data lor columns I through 11 are statement week averages Data in column 7 are taken
rhum
reatio
a
--- a sample of savings and loan associaions on the Friday lollowng the end ol the sialement week
Donoghue's Money Fund Report. Columns 12 and 13 are iday quotes lor Friday and Thursday. rspectvly.
Aller November 30. 1983. column 15 rteers only to VA guaranteed loans Column 16 is the iitial gross yield
lollowing the end of the staterent week. Column 13is the fond Buyer revenue index Column 14 s an average of contract interest rates on new commitments lor convenonal firtl mortgages wilh 80 percent loan-lo-value
posted by FNMA. on the FOday totlowng the and ol the statement week. it s purchase program tor adjustablerate Ihofl motilOOeg having rale and payment adluslmenlt once a yea
FR I"lli(44
Security Dealer Positions December
Millions of dollars
Peirod
,Nel Total
Treasuiy bills
Cash Positions Treasury coupon* under over 1 yeu 1 year
federal agency
prlvate short-term
Tresury bills
I 1
Forward and Futures Positions Treasury couponS under ovr lederal y1ar a 1 ayency
17,
1984
private short-ten
20.858 -296
13,273 -3,461
1,579 -687
8,778 -3,148
12,088 4,013
17,005 8,839
1,654 -11,307
14 -95
1,516 -3,270
-907 -8,001
-4,411 -9,564
1984--ltgh Low
23,967 5,107
13,695 -8,251
1,296
71,038
6.746 -5.664
19,525 11,086
18,737 11.263
8,272 -13,048
22 -327
3.381 -933
-7,223 -10,679
-4 -12,600k
1983--Nov.
15,981 18,172
10,762 8.653
934 1,165
325 -831
9,451 11,568
15.302
Dec.
15,449
-7.993 -5,549
-2 -2
-1,022 669
-5.445 -7,354
-6,331 -5,596
1984--Jau. Feb. Mar.
12,472 9,287 15,936
10,815 9,658 4,619
1,083 949 811
667 -1,547 -2,626
11.398 12,532 16,151
12.788
13,349 12,764
-10,846 -8.774 -1,026
-15 -38 -10
-116 23 1,042
-7,474 -8.192 -9,552
-5,829 -8,673 -6.236
Apr.
14,408 14,163 16,483
2.929 -7.105 -2,631
-32 -291 -596
-1,64'. -1,754 -3,248
16,649 16,849 15.999
13.065 12,525 14,457
-2,140 5,511 2,207
-13 -10 -21
476 347 1.448
-9,422 -9,676 -9.937
-5,462 -2,233 -1,195
July Aug.
12,353
Sept.
17.985
-2,382 4,555 10,316
-604 -89 310
-3,393 -1,186 626
16.040 16,098 14,063
14,751 15.556 17,699
-2,516 -7,312 -9,771
-89 -240 -122
2.797 2.503 2,156
-9,650 -9,073 -8,332
-2,599 -9,304 -8,960
Oct.
21,985 19,219'
11.673 9,849*
116 -398*
2,668 4,997*
13.168 16,108
16,282 17,942*
-9,863
-72
2,135
-8,815
-5,253
23,354 21,120 20,270 20,752 24,205
12.953 11,501 11.937 10,281 11.678
11,693 12,816 13,254 13,612 13,645
17,197 15,197 15,616 16.246
382
853 690 992 4,340 5.,694
17,170
-8,673 -8,668 -10,371 -11,280 -9,761
-58 -54 -77 -77 -88
1,603 2,249 2,449 3,029 1,133
-8,153 -9,478 -9,021 -8.438 -8,652
-4.025 -3,156 -4,479 -7,148 -7,188
14,999 14,719 14,757* 15,205
18,668 18,085 17,737* 17,7420
-8,789 -8,635 -8,283* -8.624*
-49 -56 -98* -96*
1,516 892 317* 116*
-9.080 -8,811 -8,905* -10,679*
-10,030 -12,055 -12,195* -12.600*
17,526* 18,500*
17.753* 17,542*
-8,340* -9,767*
68' 131*
-1,157* -221'
-,.182 -8,932*
1983--High Low
May June
11.509
Nov. 1984--Oct.
3 10 17
24 31 Nov.
7 14 21 28
Dec.
5 12 19 26
-36 23 -31
188
21,403 20.233 16,930* 16.082*
8,901 9,918 10,040* 10,238*
427 6 -353* -6424
4,840 6,170 3,913* 5,422*
18,692* 21,911*
11,400* 13,9974
-647* -244*
3.376* 3,880*
NOTE Govemaet securtim dewer olh po t onss of securitlte already tde'iered, conmnitnts to buy (sell) ecurites on an outighl bas1 forImmedate delUvey (6 buaine days or less) and certan "when ued' owrit ee fordelayed drivery (mor thin 5 busines dlay Futurnes forwrd poitions Inchlude all ote conaltments lw ag delayed dIlvery; lurtur contraCi f arrang-
ed on organiZ 0d
xchnges.
1. Cash plue forward plue fulurt securltes. * StriVly confldOntlal
pooltIons In Temry, t
ral agency, and private hort-tern
i
-13,105'
-12,975*
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC
Net Changes in System Holdings of Securities 1 Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
Treasury bills ntt Pero heri Ich
od
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983--qr
. II 111 IV
1984--qT . I
II III 1984
OCT.
Nov.
Level--Dec.
3 10 17 24 31
I
1-year
within 1-5
5-10
over 10
total
510
ooer 10 1over 10
to al
total
Net change Outrig 0
ot
M
Nt RPt
1 -2.597 2,462 684 1,461 -5,445
5,116 4,617 4.738
173 156 155
595 481 820
1,203 975 1,474
6,208 5,439 6,120
-793 9,412 -10,739
-1,168 491 -424
198 600
808
-300 1,484 600
600
2,993
-300
300
4,463
146
830
1,950 589 328 569 -431 -1,078 -1,146 -615 207
-
335
-
164
1,475
600 -300
-1,555 1.918 169
-286 70 1.982
-3,633 786
-3,643 -3,572
-1.499 -2.110 3,777
-656 4,951 -2,112
-3.007
-3 805
5,848
3,612
1,950 588 328 1,169
114 2.228 2,915 -4,573
-731 -1,087 -1,151 -61S 507
-608 -3,925 4.133 -1,926 -165
1,585 2,299
2,410 814 -503 -1,319
170.6
-. 2
15 1,603
15
14 21 28
1,693 110 2,299
146
830
335
164
1,475
14
74.2
16.8 16.8
36.9
14.1
20.2
88.C
I
Change from end-of-period to end of period. 2 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions I-) in bill auctions. 3 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in ex change for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts,rollovers of maturing coupon ssues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. shifts.
510
1-5
t
10,290 2,035 8,491 8,312 16,342
7
4 Outright transactions in market
1-5
5,035 4,564 2,768 2,803 3,653
-1,497 -2,104 3,178
12 19 26
within
4
3,456 2,138 1,702 1,794 1,896
July Aug. Sept.
siPt.
Federal agencies noe purchases
603 912 294 312 484
-3,593 801
Oct.
3
6,243 -3,052 5.337 5,698 13,068
may June
Nov.
Treasury coupons net purchases
17, 1984
December
ad with foreign
2.4
4.3
1.2
.4
8.4 I
6 In addition to the net purchases of securties. also reflects changes in System holdmg of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowing from the System and redemptions (- of agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6 Includes changes in RPs (+), matched sale purchase transactions (-), and matched purchas4ale transactions (*).
accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity FR i'(lA 1(71l
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1984, December 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19841218
@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19841218,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Bluebook},
year = {1984},
month = {Dec},
howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19841218},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}