FOMC Minutes

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in

the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

in Washington on Tuesday, June 5, 1956, at 10:00 a.m.

PRESENT:

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Martin, Chairman

Balderston

Erickson

Johns

Mills

Shepardson

Szymczak (Latter part of meeting)

Vardaman

Fulton, Alternate

Leedy, Alternate

Treiber, Alternate

Messrs. Bryan and Williams, Alternate Members,

Federal Open Market Committee

Messrs. Leach, Irons, and Mangels, Presidents of

the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, Dallas,

and San Francisco, respectively

Mr. Riefler, Secretary

Mr. Thurston, Assistant Secretary

Mr. Thomas, Economist

Messrs. Abbott, Parsons, Roelse, Willis, and

Young, Associate Economists

Mr. Rouse, Manager, System Open Market Account

Mr. Carpenter, Secretary, Board of Governors

Mr. Sherman, Assistant Secretary, Board of

Governors

Mr. Miller, Chief, Government Finance Section,

Division of Research and Statistics, Board

of Governors

Mr. Gaines, Manager, Securities Department,

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Mr. Molony, Special Assistant, Board of Governors

(First part of meeting)

Before this meeting there had been distributed to the members of

the Committee a report covering open market operations during the period

May 23,

1956 through May 30, 1956, and at this meeting a supplementary

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report covering commitments executed May 31 through June 4, 1956, in

clusive, was distributed.

Copies of both reports have been placed in

the files of the Committee.

Upon motion duly made and seconded,

and by unanimous vote, the open market

transactions during the period May 23

through June 4, 1956, inclusive, were

approved, ratified, and confirmed.

At Chairman Martin's request, Mr. Young made a statement at

this point on the economic situation, supplementing the staff memorandum

distributed under date of June 1, 1956.

Mr. Young's statement was sub

stantially as follows:

Latest data continue to confirm a sidewise movement for

activity, some observers would say with a good bit of side

to-side roll. Downward adjustments in output of a few con

spicuous lines, in prices of metals and rubber, and in common

stock prices have commanded special press comment, as has also

some evident lowering of business sights as to general eco

nomic prospects for the short-run.

But output in many areas has been maintained and in some

sectors has increased further. Moreover, price mark-ups of

fabricated items continue to be fairly numerous over a month's

period and the recovery of farm product prices has been ex

tended.

Over-all, employment and output are about unchanged

with credit demands generally continuing vigorous.

Activity

in important industrial countries abroad remains generally

strong, with inflationary symptoms in some countries rather

marked.

As to specifics of the situations

(1) The Board's index of industrial production for May

is being estimated at 141, down one index point from April.

Auto output and output of supplying industries was off further

and production of light trucks was under expectations; farm

machinery output continued at reduced levels; steel was down

because of the closings of strike-affected Alabama mills;

appliance production was cut back as a result of competitive

developments; and textile mill operations were somewhat

lower, mainly on the synthetic side. Elsewhere, production

generally held at earlier levels or rose further.

(2) Automobile sales in May were generally disappoint

ing to the industry, but with sharp cutbacks in production,

dealer stocks began to decline a little. Used car markets

remained strong, with stocks continuing moderately downward

and prices of late model used cars, after allowance for

depreciation, moderately upward.

(3) Household durable sales were at a very high level

in April--about 8 per cent above a year ago levels. At

department stores in May, close to April levels for sales

of these goods were maintained.

(4) Last meeting's report stated that preliminary

figures on retail sales, seasonally adjusted, showed an over

all decline of 2-1/2 per cent in April. The Department of

Commerce will release corrected figures this week reducing

this decline to 1-1/2 per cent. Considering that these

figures are based on samples of varying adequacy and that

seasonal adjustment methods yield only approximations, this

corrected figure can be interpreted as showing little or no

change. In May, department store sales are estimated to

have risen one index point to 123, department store sales

have fluctuated around 122 since late last summer.

(5) Consumer instalment credit in April rose about

$250 million, with most of the rise in other than auto

motive lines. The proportion of new cars sold on credit

was about 69 per cent compared with 57 per cent a year ago.

(6) Book value of manufacturers' inventories was up

half a billion dollars in April, about the average of pre

ceding three months, with much of the rise in expanding

durable goods lines. Distributors' inventories--wholesale

and retail--showed only a modest $100 million rise, with

most of rise in nondurables at wholesale. Altogether avail

able current inventory information is adding up to some de

celeration of accumulation this quarter.

The decline in durable manufacturers' new orders

(7)

which had proceeded for four months halted in April, being

succeeded by a small rise to a level about equal to current

shipments.

Total nonfarm employment in May, despite lay-offs

(8)

in automobile and related industries, was about at earlier

levels and unemployment was probably unchanged.

Recently,

new scattered lay-offs in electrical appliance, rubber,

lumber, and southern textiles have been reported. In May

there were 23 labor markets classified as having a sub

stantial labor surplus, compared with 19 in March and 35

in April.

(9) In late May, wholesale prices averaged 4 per cent

above a year ago and only 2 per cent below the record peak

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in early 1951.

Prices of farm products have now recovered

to year ago levels. Prices of processed industrial com

modities have continued to advance at a slackened rate, but

this has been offset by pronounced weakness in some basic

materials such as steel scrap, copper, and rubber and less

promounced weakness in others.

Markets for many industrial

materials, however, have continued strong.

(10)

Consumer prices rose slightly from mid-March to

mid-April and market reports would suggest a further and some

what larger rise to mid-May.

(11)

In Western Europe, activity in major countries con

tinues to press against capacity, with inflationary pressures

manifest and apparently reflecting mainly heavy capital invest

ment demand, in France supplemented by swollen military expendi

tures.

Activity in Great Britain seems held down by capacity

limits but credit restraints would also appear to be exerting

some progressive restrictive pressure. The past year's gains for

Japan have been striking, with demand pressures very strong and

wholesale prices under considerable upward pressure.

A word in conclusion about the near-term outlook because

two confidential pieces of information have come at hand bear

ing on it.

First, very confidential information from the auto

mobile industry indicates an industry target for dealer stocks

at the end of August of 200 to 250,000 units, implying a liquida

tion before new model introductions in September of 600 to

650,000 units now in dealer inventories.

This points to a sharp

reduction in auto output in the period ahead, especially during

July and August.

If the industry adheres to this goal, as seems

possible, a downward drag upon the Board's index of industrial

production will result, caused by direct and indirect effects

of auto output cutbacks.

The index will likely fall about an

index point a month in June and July, leveling out in August as

auto parts manufacture then picks up for new models.

Third

quarter earnings of automobile manufacturers and parts suppliers

will be adversely affected by these production developments, of

course, and this has a chance of being reflected in equity values

as the third quarter unfolds.

The other item of information relates to business capital

It is strictly confidential until released

expenditure plans.

The Department of Commerce--SEC

to the public late this week.

survey of business plant and equipment expenditures will show

a further rise in the annual rate of expenditures of about $2

billion-- about the same pace of rise reported for the past two

quarters.

The release will show expenditure plans up for every

All groups will show expenditures at a

industry group.

record level except the commercial area, which slid off this

and will apparently not retrieve

second quarter from the first

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the first quarter level.

No figures will be released at this

time pertaining to spending plans for the fourth quarter, but

a further rise in that quarter is suggested by this survey's

results.

We can offset these two items of intelligence with the

following results.

Activity will continue to be supported

over the months immediately ahead by the business investment

boom while drastic readjustment is in process in the automo

bile industry. If the auto industry's "new look" takes hold

in the fall, consumer durable goods buying and business in

vestment will combine to provide, other things favorable, a

strong expansive and perhaps inflationary stimulus to economic

activity as a whole.

In response to a question from Mr. Vardaman, Mr. Young said that

there was some indication that change-over

to new model automobile pro

duction in late summer or early fall might be accomplished with little

further rise in

unemployment in

automobile producing centers.

Producers,

he said, wished to avoid additional losses of workers to other areas or

activities and may be expected,

therefore, to make such adjustments as

are necessary through reductions in

Mr.

hours of work rather than layoffs.

Young stated, in response to a question from Mr. Williams,

that there had been impressive improvement in

the market for used auto-

mobiles and, in view of the efforts of the industry to reduce dealer

inventories of new cars sharply prior to introduction of new models,

could be anticipated that dealers would be in

it

a position to get good

prices for new model automobiles when they were introduced.

This, Mr.

Young felt, indicated a hope on the part of the automobile industry

that it would be able to pass on rises in steel prices and other costs.

Chairman Martin noted that there had been considerable comment

in

the press recently about the financial difficulties of Studebaker-

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6/5/56

Packard Corporation.

At his request, Mr.

Mills reviewed discussions

that had taken place recently looking to the possible merger of that

company with Curtiss-Wright Corporation and to the possible request

of Studebaker-Packard Corporation for a loan under section 13b of

the Federal Reserve Act to assist it

in the interim.

commented briefly on preliminary work being done in

Mr. Treiber also

connection with a

possible application for such a loan, which would be filed with the

Federal Reserve Bank of New York if

Mr.

the loan is

formally requested.

Molony withdrew from the meeting at this point.

Chairman Martin next called upon Mr. Thomas,

who said that it

now appeared possible that the Treasury cash surplus for fiscal 1956

would exceed $6 billion and for calendar 1956, $9 billion.

A cash

balance at the end of the current month of more than $6 billion would

cover the next six months' deficit with only $2 billion of borrowings

in

October.

Mr. Thomas said that there had been some increase in de

mand deposits during the last two weeks,

following a sharp decline in

the preceding three weeks to an unusually low level.

Some loan con

traction at weekly reporting member banks took place in the last week

of May and commercial loans have declined for two weeks.

five weeks,

there has been little

net change in

In the past

commercial loans, and

real estate and consumer loan expansion has been less than last year.

Investment holdings have not been reduced as much as a year ago.

There has been a better tone in

securities,

the market for new issues of

with a substantial volume of offerings in May and a large

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amount scheduled for June.

Interest rates have been fairly steady

after a marked decline in long-term rates early in May.

Bank re

serve positions were eased by Federal Reserve operations during the

past two weeks with purchases of nearly $300 million, in addition to

repurchase contracts.

Net borrowed reserves have been around $400

million and bank positions have eased in

New York and in reserve cities

although tightness has increased at country banks.

Looking ahead, net

borrowed reserves may average less than $300 million this week and

next; a very large increase in

the week of June 20 in

required reserves may be expected during

connection with a sharp increase in deposits,

but this should be fully covered by an increase in Federal Reserve

float.

Mr. Thomas said that it

did not appear that there would be

any great strain on the market until the end of June or early July,

at which time the System would be called upon to give assistance.

Mr.

Thomas went on to say that in

accordance with the request

at the meeting two weeks ago the staff had prepared some longer-run

projections of reserve needs.

He then presented charts showing member

bank reserves and related items and commented on technical features

of these charts on which projections of reserves were based.

results of the projections,

Mr. Thomas said, were that if

The net

normal

seasonal trends occurred during the remainder of 1956, the System

would need to supply about $1.8 billion of Federal Reserve credit

(other than float) during the remainder of the year.

continuation of net borrowed reserves at around $400

This assumed

million.

Most

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of the additional reserves would be needed after August except for

temporary increases that would be called for late in June and early

in July.

In response to Chairman Martin's request for comments,

Mr.

Treiber noted that the projections Mr. Thomas had presented assumed

a straight line increase in the money supply.

Another approach might

be taken, he noted, basing the projections of reserve needs on a pro

jection of the business outlook and the demand for credit that would

thus result.

Mr.

Treiber stated that the New York Bank had worked

out some figures on that basis and had come out with a somewhat

lower estimate of reserve needs although it

was not substantially

at variance with the figure Mr. Thomas had given.

Mr. Thomas stated that he had come to the conclusion that

the Committee's interest was primarily in the money supply and the

projection of a supply that would not permit inflation.

He felt

it

preferable to assume the money supply, rather than to try to estimate

what the money supply would be on the basis of possible demand for

credit.

Chairman Martin stated that the projections could be prepared

on either basis and he thought it desirable to have them prepared on

both approaches.

In a sense, however, the approach mentioned by Mr.

Treiber involved a consideration of the factors that the Federal Open

Market Committee must consider at every meeting.

Chairman Martin noted that less than two weeks had elapsed

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9

since the preceding meeting of the Committee and that only ten days

would elapse between now and the June 15 tax date.

He felt it

im

portant to integrate the Committee's operations with the Treasury's

operations,

and he stated that yesterday Under Secretary Burgess

brought up for discussion the question of the prospective Treasury

surplus.

This subject might be discussed in the course of this meet

ing, Chairman Martin said; he added that he was asking Mr.

Rouse to

make arrangements to discuss the matter with Treasury representatives

after the meeting.

Chairman Martin noted that the Committee had not yet approved

the minutes for the meeting held on May 23 and he read from the draft

of those minutes the statement of the policy agreed upon at that meet

ing which, in addition to a modification of clause (b) of paragraph (1)

of the Committee's directive, indicated that between the May 23 meeting

and today's meeting operations should be carried on with a view to

bringing about a downward trend in

the volume of net borrowed reserves.

It was his feeling, the Chairman said, that the account management had

handled the situation well during this period and that the results were

working in the direction the Committee had in mind.

Chairman Martin then called upon Mr.

Treiber who made a state

ment substantially as follows:

The economy

An atmosphere of uncertainty continues.

continues steady in the aggregate, with divergent trends

-10in individual areas.

The forces of inflation seem reduced.

More questions are being raised as to business expectations,

especially for the third quarter. The stock market has de

clined. Employment is high and important labor negotiations

are now going on. People are questioning whether there will

be enough self-restraint on the part of labor in pressing its

demands, and on the part of management in raising prices, to

avoid another turn in the cost-price spiral.

With almost full employment, consumer spending has con

tinued high, although the demand for durable goods has dimin

ished. The expansion of consumer credit is not adding to the

demand in the rapid way it did last year.

Capital expenditures are high, and are expected to be

higher. Nevertheless, the recent McGraw-Hill survey showing

substantially increased spending for capital purposes has not

stimulated the ebullience which earlier estimates invoked.

While housing starts are still

high, there is little

sign of

further stimulation.

Business construction is at record levels.

Sensitive commodity

The trend of prices has been mixed.

prices have drifted downward during May, mainly because of de

clines in certain industrial raw materials, e.g., steel scrap,

copper scrap, and rubber.

Prices of industrial finished goods,

on the other hand, have advanced. Farm prices have advanced so

that, on average, they are now back to the levels of a year ago.

There is considerable evidence pointing toward reduced

business activity in the third quarter of 1956, followed by in

creased activity in the fourth quarter.

seeking to find a trading

The capital markets are still

base at which they can operate. The number of potential new

Yields on new capital issues are

offerings is substantial.

likely to increase somewhat if dealers want to dispose of the

issues promptly.

Demand for bank credit continues high. The demand in

June may equal the high demand in March. On the other hand,

the demand in the second half of 1956 is likely to be con

siderably less intense than in the second half of 1955.

Each new estimate of the Treasury's financial position

shows a greater anticipated Treasury deposit balance at the

end of June. The Board's estimates reported this morning are

greater than those of the New York Bank. On the basis of the

New York estimates, the Treasury will probably have to borrow

for cash in August. It will probably want to borrow at that

time about half of its estimated cash needs for the second

half of 1956; on this basis the August borrowing may amount

to a couple of billion dollars, part of which must be financed

through bank credit.

-11The money market has been under less pressure in the

last two weeks. We should continue to make it clear that

needed credit will be available.

Net borrowed reserves for

the last two statement weeks have averaged $400 million. The

outright purchase of $161 million of securities for System

Account during those two weeks, plus repurchase agreements by

the New York bank, have been direct evidence of the System's

willingness of make needed credit available. Additional out

right purchases of $131 million in the current statement week

and a continuation of repurchase agreements have been further

evidence of such willingness. Borrowing by member banks from

the Federal Reserve Banks averaged about three quarters of a

billion dollars in the last statement week, compared with

about $1 billion in previous weeks.

This is further evidence

of lessening pressure. While credit policy should remain re

strictive, the pressure upon credit availability should con

tinue to be reduced to reflect the current balance between

inflationary and deflationary pressures in the economy. Tight

ness or ease in the market is, of course, reflected in a number

of areas such as interest rates, volume of member bank borrowing,

and the attitudes of men.

There is likely to be a good deal of churning around in

the money market in the middle of June.

There will be heavy

tax payments and heavy demands by corporations for bank credit.

The Federal Reserve System might appropriately supply additional

reserves as tangible evidence that the credit authorities do not

intend to allow the demands for credit to generate a squeeze.

Because of the large money market adjustments that must be made,

a fairly liberal supplying of reserves would be helpful without

signaling a policy of ease. Giving effect to the substantial

Federal Reserve transactions already made this statement week,

average net borrowed reserves for the week will probably fall

in the $350 - $400 million range. Projections for the follow

ing weeks of June indicate less net borrowed reserves. Recog

nizing that net borrowed reserves are but one of many factors

indicating the extent of the tightness of the money market, we

should be alert to make additional purchases to prevent net

borrowed reserves from exceeding the $200 - .300 million range.

The officers of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York be

lieve that there should be no change at this time in the Bank's

discount rate.

Mr. Erickson said that conditions in

favorable except for the weather.

the Boston District remained

Employment in April was ahead of March

of this year and of April of last year.

Except for textiles, New England

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industries were doing well.

Construction awards in New England during

the first

two weeks of May were ahead of a year ago by 15 per cent.

Nonresidential contracts were up 25 per cent, and residential building

was up 14 per cent.

During the past two weeks there has been more ac

tive use of the discount window, Mr. Erickson said, adding that on one

day 82 banks borrowed from the Boston Reserve Bank, more than at any

time since the banking holiday in 1933.

In a survey of automobile

dealers, the first four dealers interviewed blamed the automobile

manufacturers for their present predicament.

One of those dealers

criticized Federal Reserve policy but this was because it

him more money.

was costing

Mr. Erickson said that he felt the discount rate should

remain where it is--the Boston Bank's directors took that action yester

day by renewing the existing 2-3/4 per cent rate. For the next two

weeks, Mr. Erickson suggested that the Committee supply reserves to

the market even if net borrowed reserves dropped below $300 million.

Mr. Irons said that conditions in the Dallas District continued

strong.

He could see no evidence of real weakness or of any tendency

for the adjustment going on in the automobile industry to cumulate.

described the situation as a strong side-wise movement.

He

Less active use

has been made of the discount window at the Dallas Bank during the past

two weeks, Mr.

Irons said, and borrowings have dropped from the $45-50

million range to $25-30 million.

relatively few banks, Mr.

These borrowings continue to be by

Irons said:

out of 590 country banks,

probably 4 or 5 were using the discount window and those borrowings

6/5/56

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were largely for seasonal needs associated with agriculture.

bulk of borrowing

The

is coming from 4 or 5 or 6 of the larger banks in

the larger cities, but that also has lessened within the past two

weeks.

Mr.

Irons said that in his judgment the situation was still

much as described in

the economic review.

He would not recommend a

change in the discount rate at this time.

The Committee should pro

vide reserves needed for seasonal and related factors, he said, but

he would not be inclined to have the situation become easier than

it

has been during the past two weeks.

The Committee should continue

to have a real element of pressure on the reserve position of banks

rather than a sharp movement toward ease.

He would not wish to set

any specific figure of negative borrowed reserves to be attained, but

his comments might suggest negative free reserves more in the $350

400 million range than in the $250-300 million area.

Mr.

of change in

Mangels said that the last two weeks have given no evidence

the Twelfth District's situation.

Department store sales

are holding up well, employment has been increasing, and automobile

sales in April in

earlier.

California were only 13 per cent lower than a year

Preliminary figures of automobile sales early in May indi

cated a decrease from a year ago not much greater than that in April.

The general situation in

the Twelfth District is

except in the northwest where lumbering is

still

relatively good

having something of a problem.

Increases in bank loans at Twelfth District reporting member banks during

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the past few weeks have accounted for about a third of the national

increase; the increase in

real estate loans in

the Twelfth District

made up half of the national total.

Mr. Mangels referred to a business outlook meeting held at

the San Francisco Bank last Friday and attended by representatives

of finance and of the utility, steel, oil, lumber, and building in

dustries.

A steel company representative indicated that the West

Coast inventory of steel was probably no greater now than a year ago

and that a larger inventory might be healthy.

felt

This representative

that the industry would operate at 85 per cent capacity in

the

third quarter and would be back to 91 per cent in the fourth quarter.

Representatives of the petroleum and utilities industries were looking

ahead to substantially increased needs for capacity in the next few

years.

there is

The lumber industry anticipates further price declines and

some concern that substitute materials may affect the demand

for lumber for residential and other construction.

A pessimistic note

was expressed by the former president of the National Home Builders

who estimated that housing in

California this year would be 30 to 40

per cent below new construction in

1955.

For the country as a whole,

he thought housing starts would total not more than one million units

this year.

Sales of new houses are lagging, not as a result of a lack

of mortgage money but because the effective demand is

in

for homes selling

the $9,000-$10,000 price class, whereas the building industry can not

6/5/56

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now build houses to sell below $12,000-$12,500.

In other words, the

industry for various reasons has priced itself out of its current

market.

Gross farm income in California in 1955 was above 1954, Mr.

Mangels said.

Some increase in farm debt has taken place, but net

worth of farmers has increased.

The view was expressed that the Fed

eral Reserve System would need to supply about $1-1/2 billion addi

tional reserves this year, and some expressed the hope that this would

be in the form of a reduction in reserve requirements.

Mr. Mangels

presented figures indicating that banks on the West Coast are not too

tightly pressed.

Three bank presidents who visited him recently felt

that the discount rate should not be reduced and others have indicated

satisfaction with the present rate.

Mr. Mangels felt that the Com

mittee's operations in the past two weeks had helped the general situa

tion, including psychology.

He suggested that the Committee continue

about what it has been doing, furnishing reserves on a moderate basis

and perhaps reducing net borrowed reserves further but not too sub

stantially.

Mr. Mangels noted that he still did not expect to recom

mend a change in the discount rate when the directors of the San

Francisco Bank meet on June 13.

Mr. Leedy said that he had no significant changes to report

regarding conditions in the Tenth District, and that he agreed with

the views expressed thus far regarding the national economic situation.

He felt the management of the System account had given an excellent

account of itself

since the last meeting.

In view of the uncertainties

6/5/56

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in the picture and the tax date coming up shortly and because of the

situation in the automobile industry, he felt that between now and

the next meeting the Committee should make certain that needed re

serves are supplied to the market.

He would not go so far as to indi

cate a condition of ease, but reserves might be supplied a little on

the liberal side.

He would suggest no change in discount rates at

this time.

Mr. Leach said that since the last meeting the Fifth District

had shown small economic gains and losses with little net change.

Loan

demand continues strong and there is evidence that the feeling of tight

ness has spread to the smaller banks.

He said that he had gotten this

impression both from visits to banks and from the experience at the

discount window of the Richmond Bank.

Over Memorial Day holiday, 55

member banks were borrowing from the Richmond Bank, the largest number

in

the postwar period.

Of the 114 banks that have borrowed this year,

2 had never borrowed before and 8 had not borrowed since 1934.

During

the next three weeks, Mr. Leach said that he felt the System's actions

should continue to dispel any doubts as to our readiness to meet

seasonal reserve needs including tax date requirements.

There should

be further outright purchases of Treasury bills and a lower level of

net borrowed reserves--perhaps around $200 million.

Special pains

should be taken to see that net borrowed reserves do not get higher

than the general level the Committee has in mind.

This would represent

6/5/56

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an extension of the shift in

of the Committee,

but it

emphasis adopted at the May 23 meeting

would not require a change in

the directive.

Mr. Leach said that he did not expect to recommend to the directors

of the Richmond Bank any change in the discount rate at this time.

Mr.

Vardaman said that he had just returned from an auto

mobile trip through the Midwest, the South, and the southeastern

States on which he found almost universal support for current System

policy and no criticism of the soundness of what the Committee was now

doing.

He said that he,

to smaller banks,

too, had noted that tightness was spreading

and he expressed the opinion that an unfortunate

maldistribution of credit facilities continues in

is

not a Federal Reserve problem, Mr.

some areas.

This

Vardaman said, but he hoped

that something could be done to bring about a more equitable distribu

tion of loanable funds throughout the economy.

Mr.

Vardaman said that

he hoped the System could assure the public including the banks that

it

would supply the needed funds during the next few weeks or months.

The discount window should be kept open and the banks should be welcomed

rather than frowned on for borrowing.

would remain where it

is

He hoped that the rediscount rate

and he especially approved the present situa

tion with two banks having a 3 per cent discount rate while the others

had a 2-3/

per cent rate.

Mr.

Vardaman said that he thought this was

one of the most healthy factors in

recent policy moves.

the System had accomplished to a large extent what it

complish:

He felt

that

set out to ac

it had awakened the economy to the dangers of inflation.

6/5/56

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Now the System could afford to coast along and not make conditions

any tighter.

Mr. Mills called attention to the business situation at home

and abroad and to the availability of credit, stating that these two

factors argued for the injection of additional reserves and for taking

advantage of natural forces that would reduce the level of negative

free reserves to around $200 million.

There were indications that

business expectations and actual business performances were wavering,

he said, and to the extent that that is

true the Committee should guard

against being misguided by the past momentum of the economy when actual

conditions might be developing that would make future prospects less

bright.

He noted that Messrs.

Erickson and Leach had brought out the

fact that country banks in their districts were resorting to greater

use of the discount windows and that excess reserves at country banks

were drying up.

Mr.

Mills said that the reserves supplied during the

past two weeks had relieved the situation and improved the tone of the

Government securities market but that it

would take time for those re

serves, and such new reserves as are supplied, to spread out to country

banks.

He felt that the Committee should not be disturbed even though

further additions to reserves at this time might temporarily produce

a greater sense of ease than might otherwise be welcome, due to the

fact that until they have become more widely distributed, the initial

impact of a supply of new reserves falls on the money market.

Accord

ingly, he would argue for a policy of supplying additional reserves

-19

6/5/56

either through direct purchases of Treasury bills or through natural

factors that would bring negative free reserves down to around $200

million.

Mr.

Shepardson said that he felt much the same as Mr. Mills

had just indicated.

Committee activities up to the present time have

been getting the results the Committee has had in mind, he said, and

there has been a healthy change in

the atmosphere.

We have reached

the point where perhaps some easing of the pressure is

indicated.

The

level of negative free reserves should be lowered possibly to the $200

250 million level.

Mr. Shepardson said he was not sure about any particu

lar figure but the level should come down from where it

the discount rate was serving a good purpose where it

is.

is

He thought

and would not

favor a change at this time.

Mr.

Fulton said that the Cleveland District's economy was

affected materially by the automotive situation and the weather had

been an unfavorable psychological factor, but there were many factors

of strength still present.

He would not like to see net borrowed re

serves so reduced as to indicate that the System had surrendered to

some extent to inflation; the current steel wage negotiations were

most important in that the settlement would be a bellwether for other

industries.

Net borrowed reserves around the $300 million level would

be helpful at the present time, Mr. Fulton said, and would indicate

the willingness of the System to meet all appropriate demands for

6/5/56

-20

credit, but would not give an indication that the System had

completely changed policy or that it

intended to supply reserves

in such quantities as to let wages react to that stimulus.

Mr. Williams commented on business developments in the

Philadelphia area to the effect that no important changes in the

general situation had taken place since the preceding meeting.

He

cited a special report of automobile sales in the district, stating

that all

but 4 of 4 8 counties for which data were available showed

an increase in

sales during April as compared with a year ago.

Nothing in the Philadelphia District business picture would warrant

a change in policy at this time,

questions may arise in

Mr. Williams said, although real

July and August.

For the present, he favored

maintaining existing discount rates, continuing the Committee's

existing directive, and giving whatever assistance was necessary

through supplying reserves in

the open market.

He thought free re

serves should be held around the negative $200 million level.

Mr.

to be a little

Bryan said that in

the Sixth District, there appeared

softening in economic activity but not much, and that

such softening as could be observed was attributable almost entirely

to textile shut downs and to the strikebound Birmingham steel situation.

Nationally,

he felt

the situation confusing.

The problem, he said, was

to judge whether the massive readjustments taking place were of the

"rolling adjustment" type that precede an economy getting into balance

-21

6/5/56

for another upsurge, or whether they indicated some sort of cyclical

down turn.

He did not think the evidence conclusive one way or the

other at present and any judgment must be tentative.

His view was

that we must for the time being confine ourselves to the conclusion

that the economy is moving sidewise and that the previous massive up

surge has been at least mmentarily checked.

moving sidewise in this way,

strictive.

When the economy is

credit policy should not become more re

The System should meet the seasonal demand for funds.

At

the same time the System should do nothing dramatic toward softening

policy, such as reducing discount rates or reducing reserve requirements

until evidence of an actual or impending downward trend in

is

clearer.

the economy

Mr. Bryan said he had a further question in his mind

whether the System should supply reserves sufficient not merely to

meet the seasonal needs but also to restore some growth factor in the

total reserve supply.

His present inclination was that the Committee

should go somewhat further than merely supplying reserves for seasonal

and tax date requirements:

would be justified for a temporary

supplying reserves in a quantity that would restore some

period in

growth.

it

If

this resulted in

a move in

the Treasury bill rate to a

point where it was out of touch with the discount rate, he would be

disposed to reduce the discount rate.

Mr. Bryan added the comment

that he had not been greatly concerned about the volume of borrowings

at the Reserve Banks, that these had "put the grease on the wheels

that needed the grease at the time they needed it."

6/5/56

-22

Mr.

Szymczak entered the meeting during Mr. Bryan's state

Mr.

Johns said that department store sales in the Eighth

ment.

District were running stronger than in the nation as a whole but

other than that he had nothing to report that differed from the

staff review.

He recalled that two weeks ago he had complained

mildly that the reserve position of banks had been somewhat tighter

since the preceding meeting than the Committee had wanted it

to be.

He now wished to say that he had been very much pleased by the

performance of the desk during the past two weeks.

that there appeared to be a little

Mr.

Johns said

uncertainty regarding the economy

at the present time although he was unable to place his finger

exactly on signs of weakness.

An opinion had been expressed to him

within the past few hours by an informed and careful observer that

the System's operations during the past two weeks had reassured

bankers as to the availability of reserves and credit but that such

assurance had not yet been divined by the business community other

than banks.

This observer suggested the desirability of the System

communicating such assurance to the business community and indicated

he would welcome a reduction in

in

margin requirements.

Mr.

discount rate or perhaps a reduction

Johns said that he was not sure that he

agreed with this observer but that he hoped the Committee would exer

cise care between now and its

situation to tighten.

next meeting not to permit the reserve

He would prefer that negative borrowed

6/5/56

-23

reserves drift slowly downward rather than that they rise.

For the

moment he did not contemplate recommending a reduction in the dis

count rate of the St. Louis Bank, although as Mr.

Bryan had suggested

he would watch short-term interest rates carefully, Treasury bill

rates particularly, and if they declined much he would begin thinking

about recommending a reduction in the discount rate.

June tax date, Mr.

Once past the

Johns said, if the bill rate continued to drift

downward he would begin to think quickly about reducing the discount

rate.

Mr.

Szymczak said that he thought the policy the Committee had

been pursuing during the past two weeks had been about right.

The

dramatic thing industry seemed to expect was a reduction in the dis

count rate, he said, but he did not think the System was ready to take that

action.

He did feel, however,

that the Committee should supply re

serves to the market to meet seasonal needs and that it

the situation carefully.

If

should watch

the bill rate declined to a level out of

relation to the discount rate, he would be disposed to act on the dis

count rate.

Mr. Balderston said that developments since the previous meet

ing confirmed the soundness of the Committee's action in changing the

directive two weeks ago to make the supply of credit more available.

He noted that the bill rate had declined but is still in an appro

priate relation to the discount rate and that the discount total had

dropped below

$1 billion for the first

time in many weeks.

While

-24

6/5/56

net borrowed reserve figures could not be used with precision, Mr.

Balderston said that he felt

these figures should be brought down

at least to $250 million, with a target range of zero to $200 mil

lion.

He commented on evidence of readjustments taking place in

economic activity and of deterioration in

business confidence, which

led to his belief that the Committee's operations for the near-term

should be designed to offset fears and uncertainties that might re

sult this summer from necessary readjustments in the auto, steel,

and other industries.

In the longer-run, Mr. Balderston said, the

need to encourage expansion of productive capacity and continuing

improvements in plant efficiency made it desirable for the System

to give attention to increasing the money supply to the extent needed

to provide for jobs and a constantly rising standard of living. Such

increase should take place when it can be accomplished without the

risk of inducing inflationary price advances.

Chairman Martin stated that the views expressed at this meeting

were much closer together than those at the meeting two weeks ago. His

view, he stated, was much the same as that expressed by Mr. Mills this

morning. The Chairman said that he felt the Committee had made sub

stantial progress in what may be a valley and what easily could become

a triple top movement.

There had been a valley in February, he said,

and we probably are going to have a little valley this summer.

He was

not the slightest alarmed about anything in the economy today--he

-25

6/5/56

wished he were more alarmed perhaps.

agreed with Mr.

The Chairman said that he

Bryan that prudence is

desirable but that he be

lieved developments had taken a natural course.

applied itself,

in

If

the Committee

recognizing that money and credit is

this situation no matter how much its

focus by commentators or others,

only one element

importance may be put out of

the Committee could handle the situa

tion surprisingly well.

Chairman Martin said that his feeling had not changed since

the meeting two weeks ago and that he felt

zero free reserves.

we should be moving toward

He recognized the qualifications that should be

put on any figures of free reserves and he wished that the Committee

had never gotten into using these figures.

However,

they had come in

the

to use, and at this time he would favor negative free reserves in

$250-million-zero range, rather than a higher figure.

All aspects of

the market must be taken into consideration, however, not only the

figures of free reserves.

The Committee must not be misled by talk

of "holding the line" or by misinterpretations that might appear in

the press or in

letters as to actions the Committee might take.

Chair

man Martin emphasized that this is a moving picture and that there have

been substantial changes in the situation since discount rates were in

creased eight weeks ago.

There has been a real advantage in the split

rate, with two banks at 3 per cent and the rest at 2-3/4

he said.

This advantage may have given the System an opportunity to have one

-26

6/5/56

foot on third base and the other on home plate.

However, in any

change of the rate, if there were to be a change, it would be

preferable if

action came first

from the banks now having the 3 per

cent rate rather than from those having the 2-3/4 per cent rate.

He

noted that the Board would have a responsibility to try to coordinate

a change in

rates, and he expressed the hope that we would not get

into a position where one bank was holding at the 3 per cent level

while other banks were moving to a 2-1/2 per cent level.

this comment,

He made

he said, because of the possible implications of the

comments on the discount rates in

the discussion this morning.

Chairman Martin reiterated that the views expressed at this

meeting by Mr.

held.

There is

Mills were very close to those he (Chairman Martin)

a momentum in

the economy.

were to be measured against that in 1954,

If

the situation today

the economy now is

roaring.

However, two years have elapsed since 1954, and the Committee should

not ignore the ebb and flow of the economy.

at present of some decline in

doldrums.

economic activity.

would not be too far out in

front in

either

The Committee should not feel bad about rolling a little

with the picture during the next three weeks.

in

We may have summer

The Chairman said he hoped the System could adjust mone

tary policy so that it

direction.

There are indications

If

operations moved

the direction of negative free reserves of $250 million or less,

he did not think this would be construed as an overt sign of ease

in view of the tax period coming up and the general economic background.

6/5/56

-27

Rather, the Committee would be in

sound position for whatever later

action might develop on discount rates.

It

is

too early for such a

move, but when discount rates are changed the movement ought to be

orderly.

Chairman Martin said that unless a different view was ex

pressed,

he would interpret the consensus of this meeting to be that

no change should be made in

Bank.

the directive to be issued to the New York

As to the level of free reserves,

net borrowed reserves, or

whatever you want to call them, Chairman Martin said that no purpose

would be served by voting on whether they should be in the $200-250

million range.

He suggested that emphasis be placed on a trend down

ward from the present position.

This, he thought, would be doing

about what the majority of the Committee favored, although he noted

that Mr. Irons had indicated he would favor a somewhat higher level

of borrowed reserves than others indicated.

To this, Mr.

Irons re

sponded that there was no magic figure.

Chairman Martin then asked Mr. Rouse to comment on the situa

tion.

Mr. Rouse said that he agreed with the consensus of the Com

mittee that there should be a continuation of the decline represented

by the negative borrowed reserve figures.

The volume of payments to

be effected during the next three weeks would require that there be

additional reserves available.

-28

6/5/56

Mr. Rouse then commented on probable Treasury expenditures

and estimates of Treasury cash position and of the Treasury balance

during the next several weeks.

He said he planned to meet that after

noon with Treasury representatives to discuss the use of the antici

pated Treasury surplus, adding that he would be glad to have any sug

gestions that those present cared to offer.

In response to a question from Chairman Martin as to whether

he was reasonably clear on the policy to be followed during the next

three weeks, Mr.

Rouse stated that he was.

However, he referred to

the comments made during this meeting on the bill

count rate to the effect that if

the bill

the discount rate should be reduced.

believe this conclusion followed.

rate and the dis

rate moved down perhaps

Mr. Rouse said that he did not

The bill

rate is

not the guiding

rate in this respect, he said, but rather the Federal funds rate.

He was not concerned about the bill rate getting out of hand im

mediately, since corporation selling of Treasury bills in

connection

with the June tax date would exert upward pressure on bill

rates for

the next two weeks.

If,

however,

the System account purchased

several hundred million of Treasury bills toward the end of June to

offset reserve losses at that time, there might then be a marked de

cline in the bill

rate.

This would be a result of the open market

policy being followed, Mr. Rouse noted, and he said he did not think

that the results of action taken in carrying out the Committee's

policy should be looked upon as something to force the Reserve Banks

to lower their discount rates.

-29Chairman Martin commented that this was a very pertinent

point.

He inquired of Mr.

Rouse whether he had any changes to sug

gest in the directive to be issued to the New York Bank, and Mr.

Rouse responded that he had none.

Chairman Martin then stated that in renewing the directive

it

would be understood that operations would be carried on as indi

cated earlier in

the discussion, that is,

with a downward trend in

negative free reserves.

Thereupon, upon motion duly made

and seconded, the Committee voted

unanimously to direct the Federal Re

serve Bank of New York until other

wise directed by the Committee:

(1) To make such purchases, sales, or exchanges (in

cluding replacement of maturing securities, and allowing

maturities to run off without replacement) for the System

open market account in the open market or, in the case of

maturing securities, by direct exchange with the Treasury,

as may be necessary in the light of current and prospective

economic conditions and the general credit situation of the

country, with a view (a) to relating the supply of funds in

the market to the needs of commerce and business, (b) to

restraining inflationary developments in the interest of

sustainable economic growth while taking into account any

deflationary tendencies in the economy, and (c) to the

practical administration of the account; provided that the

aggregate amount of securities held in the System account

(including commitments for the purchase or sale of securi

ties for the account) at the close of this date, other than

special short-term certificates of indebtedness purchased

from time to time for the temporary accommodation of the

Treasury, shall not be increased or decreased by more than

$1 billion;

To purchase direct from the Treasury for the ac

(2)

count of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (with discre

tion, in cases where it seems desirable, to issue participa

tions to one or more Federal Reserve Banks) such anounts of

6/5/56

-30

special short-term certificates of indebtedness as may

be necessary from time to time for the temporary accom

modation of the Treasury; provided that the total amount

of such certificates held at any one time by the Federal

Reserve Banks shall not exceed in the aggregate $500

million;

(3)

To sell direct to the Treasury from the System

account for gold certificates such amounts of Treasury

securities maturing within one year as may be necessary

from time to time for the accommodation of the Treasury;

provided that the total amount of such securities so sold

shall not exceed in the aggregate $500 million face amount,

and such sales shall be made as nearly as may be practicable

at the prices currently quoted in the open market.

Chairman Martin suggested that the proposal to authorize swaps

in Treasury bills, listed as Topic 3.c. on the agenda for this meeting,

be carried over to the next meeting, which he suggested be held on

June 26.

He also suggested that the question whether to make available

to the Treasury the memorandum prepared at the New York Bank under date

of September 29, 1955, "Notes on Debt Management,,

be carried over to

the next meeting with the understanding that there would be a full

discussion of both of these matters at that meeting.

There was agree

ment with these suggestions of Chairman Martin, including his sugges

tion that the next meeting of the Committee be held on Tuesday, June 26,

1956.

Thereupon the meeting adjourned.

Secretary