FOMC Minutes

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held

in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

System in Washington on Tuesday, July 28, 1959, at 10:00 a.m.

PRESENT:

Mr. Martin, Chairman

Mr. Hayes, Vice Chairman

Mr. Allen

Mr. Balderston

Mr. Deming

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Mr.

Erickson

Johns

Mills

Robertson

Shepardson

Messrs. Bopp and Leedy, Alternate Members of the

Federal Open Market Committee

Messrs. Leach, Irons, and Mangels, Presidents of

the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, Dallas,

and San Francisco, respectively

Mr. Riefler, Secretary

Mr. Sherman, Assistant Secretary

Mr. Kenyon, Assistant Secretary

Mr. Solomon, Assistant General Counsel

Mr. Thomas, Economist

Messrs. Marget, Mitchell, Roosa, and Young,

Associate Economists

Mr. Rouse, Manager, System Open Market Account

Mr. Molony, Special Assistant to the Board of

Governors

Mr. Keir, Chief, Government Finance Section,

Division of Research and Statistics,

Board of Governors

Messrs. Ellis, Hostetler, Daane, and Tow,

Vice Presidents of the Federal Reserve

Banks of Boston, Cleveland, Richmond,

and Kansas City, respectively

Mr. Einzig, Assistant Vice President, Federal

Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Mr. Anderson, Economic Adviser, Federal Reserve

Bank of Philadelphia

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7/28/59

Mr.

Coldwell, Director of Research, Federal

Reserve Bank of Dallas

Mr. Litterer, Business Economist, Federal

Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Messrs. Stone and Holmes, Managers, Securities

Department, Federal Reserve Bank of New

York

Chairman Martin noted a request by the Federal Reserve Bank of

New York that Mr. Holmes participate in

this meeting, and no objection

was indicated.

Upon motion duly made and seconded,

and by unanimous vote, the minutes of

the meeting of the Federal Open Market

Committee held on July 7, 1959, were

approved.

Upon poll by the Secretary of the available members, the Fed

eral Open Market Committee on July 16, 1959, authorized exchange of

approximately one-half of the System Account holdings of $8,143 million

of Treasury certificates of indebtedness maturing August 1, 1959, into

4-3/4 per cent Treasury notes to be dated August 1, 1959, and mature

August 15, 1960, and approximately one-half into 4-3/4 Treasury notes

to be dated July 20, 1959, and mature May 15, 1964.

Chairman Martin commented that the Treasury was anxious to

have a division of System Account subscriptions to assist in evening

out the maturity schedule.

As it

developed, considerably less than

one-half ($2.6 billion) of the Account holdings of the August 1, 1959,

certificates were exchanged into the May 15, 196 4,

notes.

Thereupon, upon motion duly made

and seconded, and by unanimous vote,

the action taken by the Federal Open

Market Committee on July 16, 1959, was

ratified.

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Before this meeting there had been distributed to the members

of the Committee a report of open market operations covering the

period July 7 through July 22, 1959,

and a supplementary report cover

ing the period July 23 through July 27, 1959.

Copies of both reports

have been placed in the files of the Committee.

Mr. Rouse recalled that at the time of the July 7 meeting of

the Committee the outlook for the U. S. Government securities market,

and especially for the Treasury's financing activities, was markedly

unfavorable.

Rates for short-term issues were rising rapidly in the

face of auctioning two successive special issues of Treasury bills,

to be followed by the refunding of the August 1 maturities.

In this

atmosphere the System did what it could to help the Treasury by

supplying reserves promptly to meet increased requirements resulting

from the sale of the two issues to commercial banks on book credit.

However,

funds injected for this purpose were less than might have

been expected,

latter

due in large part to a high level of float through the

part of the period and to large sales by banks to their

customers.

Funds were supplied to a large extent on a temporary re

purchase agreement basis.

Outright purchases during the period

totaled $153 million, and no sales were made.

New repurchase agree

ments were made in the amount of $392 million but $369 million were

resold.

The money market remained reasonably stable, though still

tight, and with the development of a much improved atmosphere in

the securities market no serious pressures emerged to require further

open market operations.

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-4

The average rate of

4.72 per cent on the auction of July

bills was considerably higher than indicated by earlier estimates.

Since there was little

prospective nonbank demand for that issue,

the necessary bank underwriting was effected at rates calculated to

enable banks to stay with the bills for some time.

However, the

strong secondary market that developed for those bills seemed to

demonstrate that an attractive rate will still

and it

bring out new funds,

was interesting to note that considerable demand reportedly

came from sources not ordinarily interested in

Treasury bills.

Even so, there was no avoiding a 4-3/4 per cent rate on the refunding.

Once again, the rate proved to have a strong pull, both in the ex

change and in

the secondary market, with a margin of the same unusual

type of buyers who purchased the July bills.

These operations,

Mr. Rouse said, served to illustrate the

weakness of borrowing too large an aggregate amount within a brief

period on successive auctions.

In such circumstances, the market

tends to overdo its rate adjustment, with prejudicial effects on

subsequent Treasury financing operations.

Treasury felt it

Unfortunately, the

unwise to take the responsibility for setting a

rate on the issues to be sold for cash.

In view of the successful refunding operation, the Treasury

now believed it

could get by without borrowing new money until the

latter part of August, when a modest amount of funds would be

required.

The Treasury was now considering borrowing about $1 billion

7/28/59

-5

at that time to meet its

some portion of its

immediate needs, and also to anticipate

October requirements,

thus reducing the size

and the difficulty of the job to be done in

October, an operation

currently estimated at about $4 billion or somewhat more.

Mr. Rouse reported that the atmosphere in

the Government

securities market currently was one of moderate optimism now that

it

had become apparent that the Treasury would not have to borrow as

much in

August as had been anticipated.

In the background, there was

the feeling that the upward surge of the economy might be tempered by

the current steel strike.

Consequently,

investors and market pro

fessionals appeared to feel that rates had at least reached a

temporary plateau, with no further upswing in prospect for the near

future.

Nevertheless,

with offerings of bills of up to 90 days'

duration to be had only at 3 per cent or less in

stances, there was still

the present circum

a storm cellar attitude on the part of large

investors.

Mr.

Rouse noted that according to the staff memorandum on the

outlook for member bank reserve positions distributed under date of

July 24,

be large.

1959,

the need for reserves over the next few months would

For the next three weeks,

estimates indicated that in

the

absence of System action net borrowed reserves might reach close to

$750 million.

The money market should continue tight, with borrowings

from the Reserve Banks generally at a high level.

Therefore, unless

7/29/59

credit policy were to be more restrictive, further open market

operations to supply reserves would seem to be in prospect.

Chairman Martin expressed the view that the Desk had handled

the situation well in

the past three weeks and that a difficult period

had been weathered successfully.

Thereupon, upon motion duly made and

seconded, and by unanimous vote, the open

market transactions during the period July

7 through July 27, 1959, were approved,

ratified, and confirmed.

Supplementing the staff memorandum distributed under date

of July

2

4, 1959, Mr. Young made substantially the following statement

with respect to recent economic developments:

Economic expansion in the second quarter has proved to

be more vigorous than earlier figures had indicated. Gross

national product, measured in terms of prices, rose at an

annual rate of $13 billion to a total nearly $50 billion

larger than a year earlier.

The increase over the quarter

in physical volume amounted to about $10 billion, so that

there was $3 billion of inflationary price rise, i.e.,

an

annual rate of a billion dollars a month. Consumer spend

ing took a near-record jump of $7.5 billion after increasing

to an average rate of about $4.5 billion in the preceding

four quarters. After declining in May, new orders for

durable goods were up again in June; in fact, they were

almost 50 per cent above their recession low. Thus, the

backlog of unfilled orders resumed its rise.

Demand has been running strong in producer durable

goods markets, as a result both of increased consumer

Output of

spending and of rising business investment.

consumer durables rose at an accelerated rate in the second

quarter in response to the unusually strong surge in con

Activity in

sumer buying of new autos and household goods.

business equipment lines has been moving up rapidly.

Altogether--with nondurable goods lines also showing con

tinuing gains from already record levels-the industrial

7/28/59

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production index rose in June to 155 per cent of the

1947-49 average.

This level was 6 per cent above the

1957 prerecession high.

The steel strike, which began July 15, has reduced

steel production very sharply to 13 per cent of capacity,

While steel is an important item in industrial production,

the momentum of expansion in autos and other lines (after

seasonal allowances) is likely to provide a sufficient

offset to permit the July production index to hold at or

close to the June level. Continuation of the strike

through August, however, would undoubtedly cause a decline

of a few points in total industrial production.

Major secondary effects of a prolonged strike would

not be expected to develop before September. Steel stocks

held by manufacturers are very large and in most cases,

particularly autos, ample stocks of finished steel products

have been accumulated at the retail level.

Complete figures are not yet available on total June

inventories, but the Council of Economic Advisers includes

in its estimates of GNP for the second quarter a $9 billion

seasonally adjusted annual rate of inventory accumulation.

This is almost $3 billion greater than the first quarter

accumulation, and it is the most rapid rate since 1951.

Combined accumulation by metal fabricators and by auto

dealers accounted for about two-thirds of the second quarter

rise in nonfarm business inventories. Accumulation by auto

dealers--and presumably also by manufacturers of metal

products--continued through early July.

Partly in anticipation

of model changeovers ahead, domestic auto stocks were boosted

to a new high of 945,000 on July 20.

This is almost two-fifths

larger than at this time in most other recent years.

Acceleration of the auto sales rate, on top of strong

consumer demands for goods and services generally, led in June

to expansion in consumer instalment credit outstanding at an

annual rate of $5 billion, nearly as rapid as in 1955 when

the peak quarter approached a $6 billion rate.

Instalment

credit extensions have increased more rapidly than disposable

income, and the ratio of extensions to income in June was

close to the previous monthly record established in 1955.

below

The ratio of repayments to income, however, is still

earlier highs.

Construction activity continued close to peak levels in

New housing starts held at a seasonally adjusted

June.

annual rate of 1,370,000, and the total for the first half of

the year nearly reached the record attained in 1950. Pres

sures of the exceptionally heavy volume of home financing

7/28/59

-8-

have been reflected in some further increases in mortgage

interest rates--on conventional mortgages to 5.8 or 5.9

per cent. Reflecting in part the recent marked increase

in the volume of completions, the Census Bureau sample

survey found that the over-all residential vacancy rate

rose to a postwar high of 3.2 per cent in the second

quarter, as compared with 2.9 per cent in the first.

Buoyancy in consumer markets in recent months stems

partly from an acceleration in employment recovery and

the accompanying rapid growth in wage and salary income.

Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment increased 200,000

in June and about 2 million from a year ago.

More than

half of the latter rise took place since March.

Unemploy

ment continued in June at the 4.9 per cent seasonally

adjusted rate reached in May. Total personal income in

June reached a new record seasonally adjusted annual rate

of $383 billion, as wages and salaries expanded further

while other types of income changed relatively little.

Average hourly earnings at factories were 5 per cent above

a year earlier while weekly earnings, owing to longer

hours, were 9 per cent above.

Average wholesale prices of all industrial commodities

have continued to mark time in July, at a level 2-1/2 per

cent above the spring of 1958, although price advances have

continued for some sensitive industrial materials. The

latest consumer price index--for June--showed an abrupt rise

of .4 per cent, as a temporary run-up in retail food prices

gave an extra fillip to the slow uptrend of prices of most

services and many nonfood items in evidence in recent months.

Lower retail food prices are in prospect. In the face of

large current and prospective supplies, wholesale prices of

farm products have declined 2 per cent since mid-May to a

level 7 per cent below a year ago.

Our foreign trade balance appears to be improving

Exports have been increasing somewhat, and

moderately.

according to estimates of the National Foreign Trade Council

they may be at an annual rate of $17 billion by the end of

this year, as compared with just under $16 billion in May.

Imports, meanwhile, have been showing signs of stabilizing

at the record annual rate of nearly $16 billion reached in

While further increases in imports of manufactured

May.

products may reasonably be expected, imports of some

materials recently at very high levels are likely to fall off.

It is interesting to note that one-sixth of the total increase

in imports over the past year was accounted for by a nearly

threefold increase in steel imports, and this partly reflected

precautionary buying against the present strike.

7/28/59

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Rapid expansion of economic activity is continuing in

Western Europe. Of particular importance is the fact that

capital expenditures are rising, and growing demands abroad

will soon be impinging more heavily on foreign production of

materials.

Mr. Thomas made the following statement with respect to finan

cial developments:

Financial developments in July were dominated by

Treasury financing operations.

Perhaps, however, as a

result of the large volume of new funds raised by the

Treasury and the new high level of interest rates that

was reached in the process, the task of Treasury financing

in the next few months may be less formidable than it

appeared a few weeks ago.

For the same reason, the

problem of monetary policy may be lightened somewhat.

The $5 billion of new cash raised by the Treasury

through two bill

offerings and the refunding of $14 bil

lion of maturing issues were massive operations.

Difficulties and uncertainties connected with the earlier

operations resulted in a sharp rise in rates to the high

level of 4-3/4 per cent for a one-year issue. This rate,

however, attracted funds from widespread sources. As a

consequence the refunding offer at 4-3/4 per cent on both

a 12-1/2 month issue and a 4-year, 9-month issue was a

tremendous success with an unusually low attrition. This

reduces the amount of prospective new financing far below

the amount that was expected to be needed in August, and

The tone of the market has

maybe in later months as well.

improved and yields on very short-term issues showed a

pronounced decline that eliminated most or all of the

increase earlier in the month. Rates from six months to

Long-term

higher than a month ago.

five years are still

previous rise, declined only

rates, which had shown little

slightly in the course of July.

New capital issues by both State and local governments

and by corporations have been smaller in July than in any

month since last August, reflecting in large part seasonal

Pressure on the Government securities market

influences.

was thus relieved somewhat by this small volume of new

issues and also by investment of the proceeds of previous

Mortgage demands, however, continued heavy and

issues.

interest rates on mortgages are approaching the 6 per cent

level.

7/28/59

-10Banks aided Treasury financing by substantial increases

Treasury

of

holdings

their

in

bills and in loans on Govern

ments in the first

two weeks of July. Partial figures for

city banks indicate marked declines in these items in the

third week of July. City banks continued to reduce their

holdings of Treasury certificates, notes, and bonds.

The

increase in loans on Government securities was partially

offset by a decline in other loans to brokers and dealers

in securities, but business loans, loans to financial

institutions, real estate loans, and consumer loans continued

to increase moderately.

In the same period of other recent

years, business loans and finance company loans have generally

declined.

The money supply, seasonally adjusted, declined slightly

in June, following little

change in May. Partial figures for

the four weeks since June 24 show an increase which may have

been somewhat greater than seasonal.

In general, however, it

appears that the money supply growth has leveled off in recent

months.

Time deposits declined slightly in July. U. S.

Government deposits at banks increased sharply in the first

two weeks of July, in connection with Treasury financing, but

began to show a decline in the third week.

In the past year

city banks have shown a pronounced decline in interbank

deposits--both demand and time and including those due to

domestic, as well as to foreign, banks.

Member banks have needed additional reserves in recent

weeks to cover the increase in required reserves associated

with Treasury financing and also a larger than usual holiday

currency demand, followed by a smaller than usual return

flow. Float declined more than expected in the early weeks

of the month but then increased more than usual. Reserves

were supplied through System open market operations, which

included an increase of about $500 million of outright holdings

since late June and a continuous volume of repurchase contracts

that varied from below $50 million to as much as $175 million

Member banks as a group have been rather heavy

on one day.

borrowers both at the Reserve Banks and through Federal funds.

Borrowings at the Reserve Banks have averaged close to $1

billion, and all classes of banks have participated in these

There has continued to be some tendency for banks

borrowings.

to build up reserve surpluses through heavy borrowings early

in the statement week and to have excesses toward the end of

the week.

Pressures on credit markets may be somewhat lighter in

August and September than has been the case in recent months.

Treasury financing demands will be relatively small, unless

some later needs are anticipated, and the Treasury's deposit

7/28/59

-11-

balance will generally be declining or at a low level.

The new issues calendar also promises to be light for

awhile.

Business borrowing at banks should decline--or

at least increase less than usual-as steel and related

inventories are reduced and as automobile dealers work

down their very large stocks of new cars before new

model introductions. By October, however, assuming

settlement of the steel strike, credit demands may be

expected to increase.

According to the usual seasonal pattern, there should

be little

need for additional reserves until the end of

August.

Temporary variations might be covered through re

purchase contracts.

Early in September reserve needs will

increase somewhat, with a further increase in October,

particularly at the time of Treasury financing.

Additional

reserves of about $300 million will presumably be supplied

at some time in the next few months through purchases of

bills by the International Monetary Fund from the proceeds

of gold sold back to the Treasury.

The timing of these

operations is uncertain and no allowance has been made for

them in the projections presented. These are likely to

offset the gold outflow of $25 million a week assumed in

the projections for three months, beginning probably in

September. This would reduce the need for System operations.

As for the policy direction in coming weeks, it is

probably reasonable to conclude that the present degree of

restraint is adequate. As Treasury tax and loan accounts are

reduced and funds are shifted to private holders, banks should

be under pressure to make adjustments so that there will not

be an undue increase in the private money supply on the basis

of reserves that were provided temporarily for Treasury

finance. This process will be completed in the next two or

three weeks. The current level of borrowings should provide

all the restraint needed, and there may be some doubt as to

whether an increase in discount rates is needed until there

is evidence of undue credit expansion.

At the request of the Chairman,

Mr. Marget made the following

comments with respect to the United States balance of payments and

certain proposed investment transactions of the International Monetary

Fund,

When I first spoke at these meetings on the subject of

our balance of payments, I suggested that what mattered about

our balance-of-payments deficit was not so much the absolute

7/28/59

-12-

level of that deficit as the direction in which it seemed

to be moving.

On that basis, I suggested, we could hardly

afford to ignore the fact that in 1958 our over-all

balance-of-payments deficit was at least twice as large as

the average deficit of the years preceding.

It would be very gratifying to be able to report that

our balance-of-payments position looks better now than it

has looked at any time since I made that remark. Unfortunately,

it looks worse.

It is true that gold movements give no indica

tion of a deterioration.

But the reason for this is that in

the second quarter of this year, for example, only one-third

of the total transfers of gold and dollars to foreign

countries (that is, one-third of our over-all deficit with

those countries) took the form of gold transfers, whereas in

the second quarter of 1958, when our gold outflow reached a

record level, the transfer of gold to foreigners covered

virtually the entire balance-of-payments deficit.

The simple

fact is that, as against the $3.

billion over-all deficit

that we incurred last year, projections now being made for

our balance-of-payments deficit in 1959 run to around $4.5

billion; and, since our balance-of-payments performance

earlier this year had been such as to lead us to expect a

balance-of-payments deficit of about the same size as last

year, this means that these projections imply, for the second

half of this year, a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $5

billion. Whatever else one can say of projections like these,

they can hardly be said to indicate the kind of change in

direction in our balance-of-payments deficit for which we

had been hoping.

When I first spoke to this Committee on the subject, I

suggested also that of the two possible ways to work toward

a balance in our international accounts--a balancing downward

or a balancing upward--it was only the latter that could be

regarded as the right way of doing it; and that this meant,

basically, that we had to count primarily on an increase in

our exports to effect the balance. One sometimes hears it

said that, desirable as this might be, it fails to do justice

to the fact that, after all, we have had, during the past year,

an accelerated upswing in imports.

But the fact is that even

during the second quarter of this year, when imports increased

no more than

markedly, total merchandise imports were still

this

years

dozen

half

past

Over the

3.2 per cent of GNP.

ratio has crept up only slightly. Cyclical swings brought

it down from 3.0 per cent in 1953 to 2-3/4 per cent in 1954,

and up to 3.1 per cent in late 1955 and early 1956. By the

first half of 1958 it was down to 2.9 per cent, and now, as

I have said, it is up to 3.2 per cent, or one-tenth of one

7/28/59

-13-

percentage point higher than at the end of 1955. This

means that the growth of imports from 3-1/2 years ago

has exceeded an amount proportionate to growth of GNP by

no more than half a billion dollars, as against an increase

in the balance-of-payments deficit from around $1.5 billion

to the $4.5 billion projected for 1959.

Moreover, we can hardly ignore the salutary effect of

imports on pricing policy and competitive practices generally

in the United States.

It is difficult, for example, to dis

sociate the recent price reductions in the field of heavy

electrical equipment (large steam turbine generators) from

the foreign competition that our producers have been

experiencing in that field. For it is on our ability to

compete both abroad and at home that the future of our

balance of payments is going to depend. The turn in our

balance of payments for which we are hoping will undoubtedly

be greatly helped by the revival of economic activity abroad,

which is going ahead, and by the removal of discriminatory

restrictions against U. S. goods, which is also going ahead,

although not as rapidly as some of us would like. But the

"help" these developments will provide will be help in the

form of an opportunity to sell our goods abroad. Whether we

succeed in selling them will depend thereafter on our ability

to compete, and on that alone.

I am very anxious not to seem to be trying to make our

balance-of-payments problem more serious than it really is.

I wish to report, therefore, that we received yesterday

morning the Census Bureau's release on its preliminary estimate

of U. S. exports in June, and that they show, for the first

time in months, a sharp rise in our exports. Unfortunately, we

have no details as to the nature of this increase, either as to

the commodities or the countries involved. It is barely pos

sible (though by no means certain) that this may be the turn

in our exports for which we have been hoping. But even if it

proves to be just that, it is quite clear that we still have a

very long way to go before we get our foreign accounts into

balance; and that whether we succeed in doing so will continue

to depend overwhelmingly on the extent to which we can keep

ourselves competitive.

With respect to the transactions of the International

Monetary Fund, you may recall that in January 1957 the Fund

inquired informally, through the U. S. Executive Director, as

to whether the System would perceive any objections, from the

standpoint of its responsibilities with respect to monetary

policy, to the Fund's selling $200 million of gold and

investing the proceeds thereof in U. S. Government securities.

7/28/59

In a letter dated January 8, 1957, to Frank Southard, U. S.

Executive Director of the Fund, Mr. Riefler, on behalf of

the Open Market Committee, wrote as follows:

"At the conclusion of the discussion of the

question which you raised, the Federal Open Market

Committee agreed that it would express no views to

the International Monetary Fund with respect to

the form in which the Fund chooses to draw upon

its resources. This action was taken to preserve

the utmost freedom to the International Monetary

Fund in meeting its problems and in the hope that

the Fund will inform the Federal Open Market Com

mittee in advance of its operations in the American

market."

Recently the Managing Director of the Fund proposed that

in the light of the increase in the Fund's resources, and what

the Fund's management believed to be required thereby in the

way of reserves, the Fund should sell an additional $300 mil

lion, to be invested also in Government securities.

On July

24, 1959, the Executive Board of the Fund voted to carry out

this proposal.

It is worth noting that in the discussion in

the Fund Board it was repeatedly made clear that the operation

would be effected in close coordination with System authorities.

The U. S. Executive Director, for example, stated that the

Federal Reserve authorities "would wish, as before, to be kept

informed as to the timing of the investment and as to any change

in investment portfolio, so as to be able to take any necessary

action with respect to the money market or to make any appropri

ate comment to the Fund at such times." Similarly, the

Executive Director for the Netherlands quoted the statement

made by the U. S. Executive Director in 1957 "as to the right

of the Federal Reserve authorities to express a decisive view

on the management of the Fund's investment in the U. S. money

market." He agreed with the Canadian Executive Director

"that at any time Federal Reserve authorities raised any

question the Fund should be prepared to let the investment

run off." Mr. Southard, the U. S. Executive Director, has

made it very clear to the Board's staff that the Fund would

welcome any suggestions the System might offer on any of the

technical aspects of the operation, such as the timing of the

investment operations, and also as to the distribution of the

investment among various maturities of securities up to one

year.

With further reference to the investment program of the Inter

national Monetary Fund,

Chairman Martin noted that the New York Bank,

7/28/59

-15

which had raised certain questions regarding the original transactions

in

1957, also had questions with respect to the current program.

He

then turned to Mr. Hayes for a further statement on the matter.

Mr. Hayes said that when the earlier transactions were under

taken the Fund was clearly running in the red and that was given as a

reason for making the move.

Although it

Now, however, the picture had changed.

was argued that the Fund should have larger reserves, the

need was substantially less than it

had been.

Therefore, in

the present

atmosphere of apprehension throughout the world about the gold situation,

questions might be raised by foreign central banks and foreign govern

ments as to whether the contemplated transactions were being undertaken

as much to help the Fund's earnings as to help maintain the gold stock

of the United States.

While the possibility of such questions being

raised had been borne in mind constantly by the United States Executive

Director on the Fund and efforts had been made to couch the proposal

purely in terms of Fund benefits, Mr. Hayes said that he continued to

have a somewhat uneasy feeling.

He noted that an integral part of the

proposal was a specific agreement on the part of the Treasury to

resell gold to the Fund and that, from the standpoint of the Fund,

the legality of proceeding under such an agreement appeared somewhat

questionable.

Mr. Hayes doubted, however, whether this was an area

where it was within the province of the System to intervene too

strenuously.

Chairman Martin stated that the points raised by Mr.

Hayes had

been passed along to the Secretary and the Under Secretary of the

7/28/59

-16

Treasury.

He understood Mr. Hayes had also talked to the Treasury,

and Mr. Marget had presented the points to the National Advisory

Council on International Monetary and Financial Problems.

It was

his belief, the Chairman said, that these matters were primarily the

responsibility of the Treasury and the Fund, and not the System.

Mr. Rouse commented that he and Mr.

advice might be given to Mr.

Thomas had discussed what

Southard as the best way, from the System

standpoint, for working the Fund transactions in gradually.

Mr. Thomas

added that Mr. Southard, when he called to ask for suggestions, indi

cated that the Fund would be willing to buy six-month and one-year

bills as well as three-month bills.

Mr. Hayes then presented the following statement of his views

on the business outlook and credit policy:

Almost all recent data continue to reflect rapid economic

growth. Even with a steel strike of relatively long duration,

the present momentum of economic recovery will almost certainly

continue to carry the economy higher through the balance of

this year and well into 1960, although production and employ

ment statistics will weaken briefly this summer because of the

strike. Housing starts and the rate of inventory accumulation,

while unlikely to show much further growth, are being well

maintained at a high level. I would expect higher consumption,

especially in durables, to provide added stimulus over the

remainder of 1959, and business plant and equipment expendi

tures seem to be in an upward phase which should pick up speed

in late 1959 and 1960.

As Mr. Marget has pointed out, one serious problem

accompanying the expansion in business has been the worsening

balance-of-payments situation. Preliminary figures for the

quarter;

second quarter show no improvement over the first

and it now looks as if the total accumulation of gold and

dollar assets by foreign accounts in 1959 will be something

over $4 billion as compared with $3.4 billion last year.

7/28/59

-17-

The price outlook likewise affords no grounds for

complacency. In spite of relatively steady wholesale

prices, the consumer price index, which failed to decline

in the recession, is again moving higher. The increase in

June may be no more than seasonal, but there has been a

rather steady uptrend of prices for services and most

manufactured goods, which for a time was obscured by falling

food prices.

Of course, the pattern of negotiations in the

steel and aluminum industries gives ground for hope that the

ultimate wage settlements in these areas will not provide

further upward impetus to prices.

Such an outcome would be

of inestimable value in checking inflationary developments

throughout the economy.

While the success of the latest Treasury refunding was

very gratifying, Treasury finance will continue to be a

troublesome problem for the rest of the year. However, as

Mr. Thomas has pointed out, the problem does not seem as

formidable now as it did three weeks ago, before the highly

successful Treasury refunding.

We estimate that about $7.5

billion of new money will be required between now and

December, with the first

portion of this cash financing

probably to be announced within the next two or three weeks.

Demand for bank credit continues heavy, although the rise

in total loans at all commercial banks in June was less

spectacular than in April and May.

The growth in business

loans in June was not as great as in 1956 or 1957, but consumer

and real estate loans continued to increase sharply. Un

fortunately the data on the weekly reporting banks for the first

three weeks of July are hard to interpret because of newly

introduced changes in the method of reporting without comparable

However, loan demand apparently has

figures for earlier years.

There was further sizable liquidation of

continued strong.

bank-held securities in June, resulting in virtually no change

in the seasonally adjusted money supply. The increase in the

six months was at an annual rate of

money supply in the first

only 2 per cent.

Continuation of the present degree of monetary restraint

appears to me to be amply justified by the generally strong

business picture, the strength of credit demands, the need to

keep the Treasury's seasonal deficit financing in the next few

months from swelling the money supply unduly, the continued

threat of unsound wage and price trends, and the failure of

On the

the balance of payments to show any improvements.

other hand, we must recognize the major element of uncertainty

injected into the immediate business outlook by the steel

It remains to be seen whether a prolonged strike may

strike.

-18

7/28/59

have unexpectedly damaging effects on the economy or whether

it may lead to a rush of ordering and restocking which would

set off an unusually rapid forward spurt in over-all activity.

We must also recognize, I think, the very delicate

situation in which the Treasury and the Federal Reserve System

find themselves in the light of the current discussions con

cerning the ceiling on Treasury bond rates. I would think it

unwise to intensify monetary restraint under these circumstances,

and in fact doubts as to the proper degree of restraint should

generally be resolved on the side of ease. The directive and

the discount rate should be left unchanged.

Looking ahead, we shall be faced with the need for

maintaining an "even keel" policy during some period in August,

possibly commencing before the next meeting, if the Treasury

goes through with its present cash financing plans. Thereafter,

we shall have an opportunity to review the whole discount rate

question in the light of such factors as developments in the

steel industry, the pressure of seasonal credit demands, and

the level and trend of short-term market interest rates, which

have shown such a dramatic, if perhaps temporary, decline in

the last week or two.

Mr. Johns said he found no reason to disagree with the conclusion

of Mr. Hayes, which was also suggested by the statement of Mr. Thomas,

that in the interval until the next meeting of the Committee the Manage

ment of the Account should attempt to maintain about the same degree

of restraint as had existed recently.

To go beyond that degree of

restraint seemed to Mr. Johns to be unnecessary at this time.

However,

he felt that the System might have work to do this autumn.

Mr. Bopp reported that steel operations in

the Philadelphia

region dropped to 15 per cent of capacity in the latest week, and

Pennsylvania State authorities estimated that about 150,000 steel

workers were out of work in

the State.

They had estimated that about

14,000 coal miners, factory workers, railroad employees, and store

clerks would be laid off in the first week of the strike, with the

7/28/59

-19

figure increasing to 18,000 in

the second week.

Likewise, it

was

estimated that a one-month strike would cost the State $300,000 in

relief funds, while a six-week strike would cost $800,000.

however,

Thus far,

the strike had had only limited secondary effects in

district.

the

Generally speaking, the district economy was strong.

As to policy, Mr. Bopp said he would agree essentially with

the views expressed by Mr.

Johns.

He would favor continuing the

present degree of restraint for the next three weeks but, like Mr.

Johns, he felt that the System might have its

work cut out for it

later on in the year.

Mr. Shepardson stated that he did not disagree with the com

The uncertainty occasioned by the steel strike

ments made thus far.

seemed to him to call for some pause from the standpoint of considering

any change in

the direction of System policy.

On the other hand,

general prospects for the months ahead suggested that the System should

maintain a tight rein.

In summary, he would agree with what Mr. Hayes

had suggested.

Mr.

Robertson said that on the basis of the facts and judgments

expressed by Messrs. Young and Thomas and the reasons set forth by Mr.

Hayes,

he would come to a different conclusion.

seek a real tightening of policy in

sider it

a serious mistake to ease.

the Committee today,

While he would not

the next few weeks,

he would con

As he read the information before

the reserve position of banks would tighten if

the System did not take offsetting steps, and in

his judgment the

7/28/59

-20

tightening should be offset as little as possible.

He would try to

maintain the degree of restrictiveness that the System had

been

seeking to achieve and would resolve any doubts on the side of

greater restrictiveness rather than less.

The steel strike, if it

should continue, might provide reason for a different course of action

policywise, but he felt that any easing at this time would represent a

major mistake.

He would not favor a change in the discount rate or in

the policy directive at this time.

Mr. Mills stated that his reasoning ran parallel to that of

Mr. Hayes and others who had spoken in the same vein.

He was impressed

by the comments of Mr. Thomas regarding the advantage the markets had

been able to obtain through the lull in capital financing.

Beyond that

factor, he would like to probe back into other areas of activity af

fected by System policy and on the influence of that policy since the

last meeting of the Committee.

Mr. Mills then read the following

statement:

The period since the last meeting of the Open Market

Committee has seen material strength develop in the short

term sector of the U. S. Government securities market and

also a trend toward price stability in the long-term

sector. The improved tone in the U. S. Government securi

ties market can be traced to the moderation that has

occurred in the pressure against the reserve positions of

the commercial banks. The fact that the long-term sector

of the market has not revealed as much strength as the

short-term sector possibly is due to suspicion in the

investment fraternity that Federal Reserve System policy

will in due course become more severely restrictive in

character.

7/28/59

-21

There are good grounds for belief that continued modera

tion in the degree of restraint exercised by Federal Reserve

System policy over the expansion of commercial bank credit

will be adequate to contain such inflationary pressure as now

exists.

To the extent that this belief should be shared by

th full Open Market Committee, an opportunity is now offered

to capitalize on the improved tone of the U. S. Government

securities market by refraining from allowing any increased

pressure to be brought against commercial bank reserves. The

market reaction to this kind of policy in a real sense should

allow the "bills only" theory to find concrete expression by

way of transmission of a lower yield trend in the short-term

sector on to the long-term sector of the U. S. Government

securities market. The greater stability in the prices of

long-term U. S. Government securities that would ensue might

be expected to rejuvenate confidence in the investment

attractions of longer-term U. S. Government securities and

thereby give added strength to that market. A better tone to

all sectors of the U. S. Government securities market could do

much to dissipate the acrid controversies that have arisen

within and without Congress as to the relationship between

Federal debt management and monetary policy.

The mechanical operation of the kind of policy envisaged

would conceive maintaining a degree of pressure on commercial

bank reserves only sufficient to force a gradual, as contrasted

to a hurried, divestment by the commercial banks of recently

acquired U. S. Government securities as they are confronted

with the necessity of finding room within the structure of

their resources in which to meet the legitimate seasonal bor

rowing demands of their customers. The projections that have

been made of movements in the volume of reserves over the

next several weeks indicate that the commercial banks would be

subjected to undue pressures if they were compelled to meet

their loan demands entirely by the substitution of loans for

U. S. Government securities and, accordingly, it seems to be

necessary for the System to supply the commercial banks with

The

a marginal volume of new reserves in the weeks to come.

provision of additional reserves will also be necessitated if

appropriate disciplinary action is taken by the Federal

Reserve Banks against their continuous member bank borrowers,

the retirement of whose discounts, in response to admonition,

would remove the availability of a substantial core of

reserves on which the credit operations of the commercial

banking system have come to depend.

7/28/59

-22

Mr. Leach reported that the major sectors of the Fifth

District economy had registered further gains.

hours worked in

Manufacturing man

June in both durable and nondurable industries

continued the steady expansion apparent since the first

of the year.

Textile mill order backlogs and inventories continued favorable and

the industry was reportedly in

its

strongest position in many years.

Spokesmen were even optimistic that the industry might be overcoming

its

long-standing overcapacity problem.

Construction employment rose

last month to a new high for the year, while department store sales

in June equaled May and the indicated July figure was an all-time

high.

These gains in

activity were not reflected in

nonagricultural

employment which, seasonally adjusted, held at approximately the May

level.

Loan demand at district banks continued very heavy, Mr. Leach

said, with the weekly reporting member bank loan increases paralleling

the rapid expansion in

1955.

fact that member banks in

Loans were increasing in

spite of the

the district were under considerable pres

sure because of a combination of factors, including high loan-deposit

ratios, substantial depreciation in

of deposits for investment in

Government securities, withdrawals

Government securities, and warnings

from the Reserve Bank in regard to continuous borrowing.

Some banks

had disposed of Governments at a loss, but daily average borrowings

from the Reserve Bank were still

reached in

June.

near the six-year record level

7/28/59

-23

Mr.

Leach mentioned having been informed by bankers that the

recently available yields on Treasury bills had caused even smaller

corporations and some individuals to cut down their bank balances,

while treasurers of the larger corporations appeared to be sharpening

their pencils even further.

Some companies were reported to be

sending out invoices with the request that remittance be made to a

designated post office box number in

Richmond or some out-of-district

point, from where the funds were transmitted to purchase Treasury bills

and save one day in the process.

Mr. Leach expressed agreement with what was said in the staff

report about the vigorous expansion that had taken place in the economy

and felt that it

called for continuing a tight rein on credit.

noted that the strengthening in

He

the Government securities market and

the Treasury's improved cash position and nearby outlook apparently

provided an opportunity for greater freedom of System action over the

next two months.

The degree of pressure now being exerted on banks

and the uncertainties surrounding the steel strike made him think it

would not be desirable to increase the discount rate at the moment or

to increase the degree of restraint that had been maintained.

Mr. Leedy agreed that this was a period when the System should

engage in watchful waiting.

The economic picture, the steel strike,

and the change that had occurred in

all

the Government securities market

indicated to him that for the moment the System should mark time.

In the next three weeks he would undertake to deviate as little

as

7/28/59

-24-

possible from what had been done in

the last three weeks, with no

intent to increase further the pressure on reserves.

Mr. Allen commented as follows with respect to developments

in the Seventh District:

I will try to refrain from repeating the content of

the Board's excellent memorandum on business conditions

and will confine myself to comment on the steel and

automobile situations in the Seventh District.

The Chicago area accounts for 18 per cent of the

nation's steel capacity.

The mills on strike include all

but 5 per cent of the capacity in our area, the principal

unit still

in operation being the Wisconsin Steel Works

of International Harvester. In Detroit the Ford Steel

Plant, which produces 50 per cent of Ford's own needs, is

still in operation. The immediate effect of the strike in

the Chicago area is that 75,000 steel workers are out (the

90,000 quoted in the press includes supervisory and other

persons who remain on the payroll).

In addition, about

10,000 transportation workers have been furloughed because

their services are not needed when the steel plants are

idle.

Thus, less than 4 per cent of the employment of the

Chicago area is involved so far. In Detroit 15,000 steel

workers are on strike, a little

more than 1 per cent of

total employment there.

Speaking generally, it appears that there is about a

two months' supply of steel on hand, although the situation

varies greatly from firm to firm with the large, well

financed concerns in the best supply situation. The auto

industry and its suppliers have enough steel to complete

their 1959 models and to begin the 1960 model run, with

Ford in the best position because of its own steel plant.

Parenthetically, automobile production in July is likely

to be around 525,000 and to drop in August to around 250,000

The new models

as many makes complete their 1959 run.

produced in September should total about 260,000, with

enough steel on hand to just about make that figure.

We have endeavored to secure information on the new

compact cars and are told that the suggested retail price

of the Chevrolet Corvair will fall below $2,000 and

probably not more than $1,800 - f.o.b. Detroit.

Accessories such as automatic transmissions will be extra.

Chevrolet expects to lose 20 per cent of the normal market

7/28/59

-25-

for its regular cars to the new small car. They think that

the Corvair, the Ford Falcon, and the Chrysler Valiant will

knock 25 per cent from the peak import figures of perhaps

550,000.

If they are right, imports would level off at

around 400,000 annually.

Chevrolet will shoot for daily

production of 1,440 Corvairs (against 7,200 regular

Chevrolets) and hopes to reach that figure by December.

They expect to build 330,000 of the Corvairs in the 1960

model year. Ford and Chrysler are shooting at somewhat

lower figures, possibly 175,000 each in the 1960 model year.

Sources in Detroit feel that the steel strike has over

shadowed the possibility of a strike in aluminum, and there

is at the moment much scurrying around for aluminum because

shortages of that metal could have serious implications for

auto manufacturers.

The new Chevrolet car will have an

aluminum engine and the Chevrolet plant at Massena, New York,

takes molten aluminum from an adjoining Reynolds Aluminum

Plant, which makes accumulation of aluminum impossible.

Ford

has a similar arrangement with Reynolds in Alabama.

Demand for credit in the Seventh District, particularly

by business, remains strong. Loans to business by District

reporting banks (on the new reporting basis) rose $60 million

in the two weeks ended July 15, with increases broadly based

over most classes of borrowers. Chicago banks showed an

additional $20 million gain in the week ended July 22. In

both 1958 and 1959 these loans dropped sharply during July.

Holdings of U. S. Government securities by reporting

banks rose sharply as acquisition of bills and certificates

were offset only in part by sales of longer maturities.

However, Chicago banks reported a net increase of only $60

million in Treasury bills from July 1 to 15, compared with

acquisitions of over $700 million by New York banks.

In

the week ended July 22, Chicago bill holdings dropped $41

million. While loans and investments of reporting District

banks expanded, deposits also rose.

As a result, additional

pressure on reserve positions of District banks was moderate

and was concentrated mainly outside the Chicago market. The

two largest banks have been net sellers of Federal funds and

have not borrowed at the discount window for several weeks.

Seventh District country banks show relatively the greatest

reserve pressure, with the volume of borrowing by such banks

now higher than it was two years ago at the peak of the 1957

tight money period.

Mr.

Allen expressed the view that the current degree of restraint

should not be varied in the next three weeks.

At last week's meeting of

7/28/59

-26

the Chicago Bank's directors, he said, some feeling of restiveness

with respect to the discount rate was evident on the part of a

minority of the directors,

reflecting the view that the System had

an inflationary situation to deal with and should move as soon as

possible.

Mr. Allen said he had no difficulty in

persuading the

directors that this would not be an appropriate time to move on the

rate.

Neither did he think such action would be appropriate in the

next three weeks, but there was some feeling that the System ought

to be doing something.

Mr. Deming stated that with two important qualifications the

general economic picture in the Ninth District was brightly colored.

Most economic indicators now equalled or exceeded the 1956-57 peaks,

some showing substantial gains over the previous boom figures.

The

two important qualifications had to do with iron mining and agriculture.

The moisture situation remained critical over large sections of the

district and July 1 crop estimates indicated substantial declines in

1959 output of most important district crops.

Relative to 1958,

winter wheat output was estimated at 37 per cent lower, and spring

wheat at 26 per cent less.

Soy bean production would be down about

29 per cent and most other major crops showed up no better, the only

important exception being that corn production was estimated at 31 per

cent higher than in 1958.

Pasture growth and hay yields were poor in

the Dakotas, but adequate to plentiful in

Montana.

on feed in Minnesota and South Dakota were,

Cattle and calves

on July 1, 13 and 12 per

7/28/59

-27

cent higher than a year earlier, a somewhat greater gain than

registered in

Mr.

the other major feeding States.

Deming felt

quite serious in its

that the steel strike might prove to be

impact on the Ninth District.

About 31,000

iron miners and lake crewmen were idle, with weekly pay roll losses

of $3.5 million.

While the strike apparently was highly unpopular

in the iron industry, the feeling seemed to be growing that it

be a long strike and that its

severe.

would

effects on the iron ranges would be

By last week, 40 iron ore carriers were anchored in

the

Duluth-Superior harbor and the vessel captains had ordered their

crews home.

Following settlement of previous strikes, mining and

shipping activity snapped back quickly,

but with rising ore imports

there was fear that this would not take place in the Lake Superior

region this year, particularly if

the strike was of long duration.

District banking statistics, Mr. Deming said, continued to

show rising loans and declining bank liquidity.

At mid-July, city

bank loans were 17 per cent higher than a year earlier and country

bank loans were up 12 per cent.

been evident recently,

While seasonal deposit gains had

they had not been sufficient to match loan

growth, so that loan-deposit ratios continued to rise.

banks,

the June ratio was above 56 per cent,

For city

higher than at the

1957 peak.

Turning to policy questions,

Mr.

Deming said it

seemed to

him the record of economic expansion argued that Federal Reserve

-28

7/28/59

policy had been reasonably good and that it

characterized as unduly restrictive to date.

could hardly be

Nevertheless,

he

was becoming somewhat concerned about the effects of policy in

future.

the

The substantial slowdown in money supply growth, the rising

velocity rate, the bank liquidity picture, and, most particularly,

the falling ratio of the money supply to gross national product

suggested to him that any further restrictiveness would be unwise

at this time.

As a matter of fact, if

agreement could be reached

on what represented normal seasonal requirements,

he would like to

see reserves supplied over the next several months to cover those

requirements,

plus some allowance for growth, with further restrictive

ness if demands should exceed such requirements.

He saw no need to

change the directive at this time or to act on the discount rate in

the immediate future.

Mr. Mangels said that for reasons already expressed by others,

it

was his conclusion that there should be no increase in

this time.

in

restraint at

He would have in mind maintaining net borrowed reserves

the range of $300 to $500 million.

With respect to the Twelfth District, Mr. Mangels said the

lack of firmness of some areas of the economy that he had mentioned

at the July 7 meeting still existed.

While total employment was up

and unemployment in California had dropped to 4.1 per cent, somewhat

below the national average, unemployment had risen to 6.8 per cent in

7/28/59

-29-

Oregon and 7.3 per cent in Washington, due in some measure to

cutbacks in the production of lumber and metals along with the

fact that industries were not expanding fast enough to absorb

increases in the labor force.

Heretofore, defense-related industries

had been a strong spot, but in that category there now appeared to be

a leveling off of employment.

In California, agriculture was a little

above average, but in other States it was barely holding its own in

comparison with last year.

Farmers' bank debt, other than real estate

debt, was now about 25 per cent above 1958, production credit loans

were in excess of last year, and processors' advances on crops like

wise were higher.

As to residential construction, only one State,

Oregon, showed an increase in June in comparison with May.

Mr. Mangels reported that Twelfth District banks were becoming

quite firm with potential borrowers.

Two of the larger banks in the

San Francisco area had stopped making veterans' loans on housing and

they no longer were making advance FHA commitments to builders.

Bank loans were up moderately in the past three weeks, along with

demand deposits, but total time deposits were down.

Savings deposits

showed an increase, so the decline in total time deposits resulted

primarily from other time deposit money going into short- and

intermediate-term Government securities.

Borrowings from the Reserve

Bank were down slightly during the past two weeks; last Thursday,

nine banks were borrowing a total of $61 million.

Purchases and

7/28/59

-30

sales of Federal funds in

the past week were about in

balance, but

this week district banks were expected to be net purchasers to the

extent of perhaps $250 million.

Mr. Mangels felt

its

present form.

that the policy directive was satisfactory in

He expressed the view that consideration of the dis

count rate could be deferred until the next meeting of the Committee.

Mr. Irons reported that the Eleventh District picture was one

of general strength, with high level activity, except for the continued

problem in

the petroleum industry.

at nine days,

in

the same as in

general the picture in

Allowables in Texas were still

June, product stocks were still

petroleum was about as it

other hand, retail trade, employment,

activity were at high levels.

had been.

set

high, and

On the

construction, and other areas of

The banking situation continued about

as it had been over the past three to six weeks, with a very strong

demand for credit.

more selective in

Some bankers had indicated that they were being

the extension of credit and one or two referred to

this as "putting our houses in

order."

Borrowings from the Reserve

Bank were running somewhat higher recently, although not too much

above three weeks ago.

Some tendency was noted for banks to borrow

on Friday and for borrowings then to taper off heavily during the

first

banks,

part of the succeeding week.

Borrowing was mostly by city

with country banks borrowing only in

seasonal purposes.

small numbers and for

There continued to be some discussion about with

drawals of certificates of deposit as the result of the Treasury bill

7/28/59

-31

rate, with bankers probably divided about evenly in

opinion as to

whether they would like to be able to pay a higher rate on time

deposits.

In short, while the banks did not seem to be a great deal

tighter in

their reserve positions than they had been, it

that they were being a little

appeared

more selective and careful in

their

lending policies.

Mr.

rate or in

Irons said that he would favor no change in the discount

the policy directive at this time.

If

the Account Manage

ment could administer open market operations during the next three

weeks in

the same manner as during the past three weeks, he felt

this would be just about right.

that

He would not actively seek greater

restrictiveness and instead would attempt to maintain about the same

degree of restraint as now being imposed.

If

there were deviations-

and he hoped that there would not have to be--he would be inclined to

let

them fall

on the side of less restraint.

Mr. Erickson stated that the First District economy reflected

pretty much the national pattern, except that in

of activity was not as strong.

banks showed that in

The latest survey of 80 mutual savings

June deposits were still

cent ahead of last year.

some sectors the pace

New deposits in

running better than 6 per

June were more than 11 per

cent ahead of last year, but withdrawals were almost 20 per cent

greater.

Some reports were heard concerning the withdrawal of deposits

for investment in

Treasury issues.

While banks indicated that their

7/28/59

-32

position was very tight, borrowings at the Reserve Bank discount

window during the first

24

days of July were at a rate equal to

only half the daily average in

June, this being true both in the

case of Boston and other member banks.

During this period, borrowings

at the Reserve Bank were less than 2.5 per cent of the System total,

whereas they were running higher than 5 per cent of the total in June.

It

might be that the banks were using Federal funds to a greater

extent than in

Mr.

June.

Erickson said that he saw no reason for changing the

policy directive or the discount rate at this time.

the operation of the Open Market Account,

With respect to

he found himself in agree

ment with Mr. Hayes.

Mr.

Balderston said that in

the main he agreed with the policy

suggestions that had been made around the table, but only because he

saw nothing else to do during the interval until the next Committee

meeting.

His concern stemmed from the fact that the boom was again

feeding the urge to borrow and to speculate.

In time, he supposed

that price pressures from things produced in

other countries might

dampen the speculative urge, but he saw too many evidences of a

repetition of the 1955-56 period to leave him confortable[sic].

Mr.

Balderston suggested that the System ought not again fall

into the policy adopted in

in progress.

the middle of 1956 when a steel strike was

As he recalled his own state of mind, it

was that he

did not know how long the strike would last, how many people would

7/28/59

-33

be out of work,

or what the secondary effects might be,

and these

uncertainties inclined him toward a degree of ease that he later

regretted.

The strike ended after 35 days, and in 1957 he felt

personally that he had been led into a frame of mind that was in

error.

At present consumer debt is

mounting,

not only for auto

mobiles but for such things as boats and travel, at the same total

rate as in 1955.

Furthermore, the new credit card plans have made

consumer borrowing even more easy and inviting.

to be highly liquid, more so than in

1955.

Corporations appear

Consequently,

the System's

own estimate of the leveling off or flattening out of the rate of

increase in

the effective money supply might be deceptive unless

account is taken of the fact that the money substitutes available

might have great inflationary potential.

the moment,

To sum up his feelings at

he would not change the discount rate during the period

between now and the next Committee meeting for the timing seemed

inappropriate.

He would continue the existing policy directive and

maintain the degree of restraint that had prevailed prior to last week.

However,

he would resolve doubts on the side of tightness now that the

Treasury had obtained its funds.

Chairman Martin commented that in one sense this was an easy

meeting to summarize, but that summarization was more difficult when

one came to questions of degree.

While he would like the Account not

to err on the side of either ease or tightness during the next three

7/28/59

-34

weeks, that would be an impossible directive.

Mr.

He felt that

Balderston had made some good points and that the Committee members

would do well to review what happened during the period of the steel

strike in

1956 and also review the minutes of the Open Market Com

mittee meetings during that period.

It

would be worthwhile to recall

just what views were expressed at that time and try to fit

them into

one's own thinking at present.

The Chairman suggested that there appeared to be a period of

status quo for the moment.

It

was clear that the majority would not

want to change the policy directive or the discount rate at this time

and the difficult problem was one of degree, involving whether to

resolve doubts on the side of tightness or of ease.

At present, there

was less need to resolve doubts on the side of ease in view of the

successful Treasury refunding and to that extent he would hope the

Account Management would not lean unduly on the side of ease.

Essentially, however,

the Account Management ought to aim at about

the same degree of restraint as now prevailed.

There were going to

be pressures in the market as the result of views on the steel strike

and varying views with respect to Treasury financing.

The situation

might be favorable for a time and then people might turn the other

way,

depending on their estimates with regard to the business situation.

Chairman Martin then asked Mr. Mills for clarification with

respect to the latter's

position on the discount rate and the policy

7/28/59

-35

directive,

and Mr. Mills replied that he would not favor a change in

the discount rate or amendment of the directive at this time.

The Chairman then stated that in the absence of objection the

Committee would approve the policy directive and no change in

the

discount rate at this time would be contemplated.

Mr. Hayes said he had the distinct feeling that there were more

at this meeting who, if

doubts had to be resolved one way or the other

would prefer to err a little

on the side of ease rather than of re

straint, and Chairman Martin replied that, although the statement might

be correct, it

the Committee.

in

would probably be a futile process to take a count of

That was why he had endeavored to state the consensus

the framework of a "perfect" operation.

Mr.

Shepardson recalled that in

agreement with Mr.

Hayes.

As he saw it,

his remarks he had expressed

the Committee favored trying

to hold things about where they were, with a minimum of deviation.

there had to be any deviation, in his view it

nature.

If

should be of a minimum

He gathered that was what a number of others around the table

thought also.

Chairman Martin then stated that in the absence of objection

the matter would be disposed of on that basis.

Thereupon, upon motion duly made

and seconded, the Committee voted

unanimously to direct the Federal

Reserve Bank of New York until other

wise directed by the Committee:

7/28/59

-36

(1) To make such purchases, sales, or exchanges

(including replacement of maturing securities, and

allowing maturities to run off without replacement) for

the System Open Market Account in the open market or,

in the case of maturing securities, by direct exchange

with the Treasury, as may be necessary in the light of

current and prospective economic conditions and the

general credit situation of the country, with a view

(a) to relating the supply of funds in the market to

the needs of commerce and business, (b) to restraining

inflationary credit expansion in order to foster sustain

able economic growth and expanding employment opportunities,

and (c) to the practical administration of the Account;

provided that the aggregate amount of securities held in

the System Account (including commitments for the purchase

or sale of securities for the Account) at the close of this

date, other than special short-term certificates of in

debtedness purchased from time to time for the temporary

accommodation of the Treasury, shall not be increased or

decreased by more than $1 billion;

To purchase direct from the Treasury for the

(2)

account of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (with

discretion, in cases where it seems desirable, to issue

participations to one or more Federal Reserve Banks) such

amounts of special short-term certificates of indebtedness

as may be necessary from time to time for the temporary

accommodation of the Treasury; provided that the total

amount of such certificates held at any one time by the

Federal Reserve Banks shall not exceed in the aggregate

$500 million.

Chairman Martin suggested that, in

order to avoid the Labor

Day holiday, it would seem advisable to schedule a meeting of the

Committee for September 1 rather than September 8, 1959.

If this

should be agreed upon, the question would remain as to whether a

meeting on August 11 or August 18 would be preferred.

After a brief discussion, it

was agreed that the next meeting

of the Federal Open Market Committee would be held on Tuesday, August

18, 1959, at 10:00 a.m., that the next meeting would be tentatively

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7/28/59

scheduled for September 1, 1959, and that meetings thereafter would

tentatively be scheduled at three-week intervals.

In this connection, Mr.

Johns suggested to the other Presi

dents that a meeting of the Presidents'

September 21-23,

Conference be scheduled for

1959, and there was agreement on the part of the

Presidents with this suggestion, with the understanding that an

Open Market Committee meeting would be scheduled for September 22.

The meeting then adjourned.

Secretary