FOMC Minutes

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of

Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, December

22, 1998, at 9:00 a.m.

Present:

Mr. Greenspan, Chairman

Mr. McDonough, Vice Chairman

Mr. Ferguson

Mr. Gramlich

Mr. Hoenig

Mr. Jordan

Mr. Kelley

Mr. Meyer

Ms. Minehan

Mr. Poole

Ms. Rivlin

Messrs. Boehne, McTeer, Moskow, and Stern, Alternate Members of the Federal

Open Market Committee

Messrs. Broaddus, Guynn, and Parry, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of

Richmond, Atlanta, and San Francisco respectively

Mr. Kohn, Secretary and Economist

Mr. Bernard, Deputy Secretary

Ms. Fox, Assistant Secretary

Mr. Gillum, Assistant Secretary

Mr. Mattingly, General Counsel

Mr. Baxter, Deputy General Counsel

Mr. Prell, Economist

Ms. Browne, Messrs. Cecchetti, Hakkio, Lindsey, Simpson, Sniderman, and

Stockton, Associate Economists

Mr. Fisher, Manager, System Open Market Account

Mr. Winn, Assistant to the Board, Office of Board Members, Board of Governors

Ms. Johnson, Director, Division of International Finance, Board of Governors

Messrs. Alexander and Hooper, Deputy Directors, Division of International Finance,

Board of Governors

Messrs. Madigan and Slifman, Associate Directors, Divisions of Monetary Affairs

and Research and Statistics respectively, Board of Governors

Mr. Reinhart, Deputy Associate Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of

Governors

Ms. Low, Open Market Secretariat Assistant, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of

Governors

Ms. Pianalto, First Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Messrs. Beebe, Eisenbeis, Goodfriend, Hunter, Lang, and Rolnick, Senior Vice

Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of San Francisco, Atlanta, Richmond, Chicago,

Philadelphia, and Minneapolis respectively

Mr. Gavin and Ms. Perelmuter, Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis

and New York respectively

Mr. Duca, Assistant Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

By unanimous vote, the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee held

on November 17, 1998, were approved.

The Manager of the System Open Market Account reported on recent developments in

foreign exchange markets. There were no open market operations in foreign currencies for

the System's account in the period since the previous meeting, and thus no vote was required

of the Committee.

By unanimous vote the Committee amended the Authorization for Foreign Currency

Operations to add the euro to the list of foreign currencies in which the Federal Reserve Bank

of New York is authorized to conduct open market operations. The Desk's holdings of

German marks will automatically be converted to euros when that currency is introduced on

January 1, 1999.

The Manager also reported on developments in domestic financial markets and on System

open market transactions in government securities and federal agency obligations during the

period November 17, 1998, through December 21, 1998. By unanimous vote, the Committee

ratified these transactions.

The Committee then turned to the economic and financial outlook and the implementation of

monetary policy over the intermeeting period ahead. A summary of the economic and

financial information available at the time of the meeting and of the Committee's discussion

is provided below, followed by the domestic policy directive that was approved by the

Committee and issued to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The information reviewed at this meeting suggested that the economy had continued to

expand at a brisk pace in recent months. Domestic final demand had remained robust, and

production and employment had recorded further solid gains. Trends in various measures of

wages and prices had been mixed in recent months.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose strongly in November after recording reduced increases in

September and October. Job gains were widespread in November; hiring in the services

industries remained brisk, construction payrolls surged further, and retail employment

rebounded after a lackluster rise in October. In sharp contrast to the general job picture,

employment in manufacturing continued to drop. The civilian unemployment rate fell to 4.4

percent in November.

Total industrial production declined somewhat in November in association with a weatherrelated drop in utilities output and persisting weakness in mining activity. Manufacturing

output was unchanged in November after a considerable increase in October. Production in

high-tech industries recorded large gains over the October-November period, the output of

construction supplies climbed rapidly, and consumer goods manufacture expanded briskly.

Elsewhere, production of motor vehicles and parts was unchanged on balance over the two

months and materials output continued to decline, with the iron and steel industry registering

particularly large decreases. The utilization of manufacturing capacity dropped over the

October- November period to its lowest level in more than five years.

Strength in consumer spending persisted in October and November, with retail sales rising

sharply in both months. Increases in sales of motor vehicles and other durable goods were

particularly large, but expenditures for nondurable goods also recorded sizable advances.

Supported by continuing gains in disposable income and the rebound in the stock market,

consumer confidence remained at a relatively favorable level, though noticeably below the

peak reached earlier in the year.

The residential housing sector continued to surge, as single- family housing starts registered

another strong advance in November and sales of new homes remained at a very high level.

Unseasonably favorable weather over much of the country evidently contributed to that

performance. Nonetheless, the low level of mortgage rates and a record high in an index of

consumer assessments of homebuying conditions in November suggested that strength in

single-family housing might continue for a time. Multifamily housing starts in October and

November were slightly above the average for earlier in the year, and permits for new

projects had been rising recently.

Business fixed investment appeared to have rebounded from a small decrease in the third

quarter that had been associated in part with a strike-related drop in business purchases of

motor vehicles and persisting weakness in nonresidential construction. Shipments of office

and computing equipment rose sharply in October after having declined for two months, and

a sizable backlog of orders for communications equipment suggested that the downturn in

shipments in October after a September surge would be shortlived. In addition, outlays for

heavy trucks reached record levels and expenditures for aircraft were well maintained. In the

nonresidential sector, building activity remained soft in October. Office construction picked

up further in response to falling vacancy rates and rising rental costs, but other building

activity continued sluggish, and available data on new contracts pointed to persisting

weakness.

Business inventory accumulation slowed appreciably in October after a sizable rise in the

third quarter. In manufacturing, however, the pace of stockbuilding picked up in October

from a slow rate in the third quarter, and the stock-shipments ratio remained in the upper

portion of its narrow range over the past year. In the wholesale sector, inventories declined

somewhat in October following a large increase in the third quarter; much of the reduction

was in farm products. The inventory-sales ratio for the wholesale sector was still at the top of

its range over the past year. Retail inventory accumulation in October was near the modest

pace of the third quarter, and the inventory-sales ratio was slightly below its range over the

preceding twelve months.

The nominal deficit on U.S. trade in goods and services in October was little changed from

its September level but was slightly smaller than its average for the third quarter. The value

of exports was up considerably in October from its third-quarter average; the largest gains

were in machinery, agricultural products, and industrial supplies. The value of imports also

rose in October. The rise in imports was spread across all major trade categories, with the

largest increases being in capital goods and oil. The limited information available for the

fourth quarter suggested that the Japanese economy remained mired in recession and that the

pace of economic growth in most of the other major industrial countries was slowing.

Activity in most of the Asian developing economies remained depressed, though there were

signs that activity in some was nearing a trough and that growth in China and Taiwan had

picked up somewhat. In contrast, economic conditions in most Latin American economies

had worsened considerably in recent months.

Consumer price inflation remained subdued in November, with both the overall index and the

index excluding food and energy items rising at the same relatively low rates as in October.

For the twelve months ended in November, the increase in core consumer prices was a little

higher than in the previous twelve-month period, reflecting slightly bigger advances in the

prices of both commodities and services. A similar pattern was evident in producer prices of

finished goods other than food and energy; core producer prices continued to rise at a low

rate in November, and the increase in these prices in the twelve months ended in November

was somewhat larger than in the previous twelve-month period. In contrast, prices for crude

and intermediate materials continued their downward trend in both the October-November

period and the twelve months ended in November. Growth in average hourly earnings of

production or nonsupervisory workers had slowed over recent months to a modest rate in

October and November. While the deceleration in hourly earnings was relatively widespread

across industries, and most pronounced in manufacturing, wages continued to accelerate in

the services industries and in finance, insurance, and real estate.

At its meeting on November 17, 1998, the Committee adopted a directive that called for

implementing conditions in reserve markets that were consistent with a one-quarter

percentage point decrease in the federal funds rate to an average of around 4-3/4 percent. The

Committee also decided that moving to a symmetric directive would be appropriate, given

that further easing likely would not be needed over the months ahead unless unexpected

developments were to point toward a more substantial weakening in the growth of economic

activity or to less inflation than was currently anticipated. The reserve conditions associated

with this directive were expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2

and M3 over the months ahead.

Open market operations immediately after the meeting were directed toward implementing

the desired slight easing in the degree of pressure on reserve positions, and through the

remainder of the intermeeting period the Manager sought to maintain that easier stance. The

federal funds rate remained very close to its intended lower level on average, and most other

short-term market rates registered small mixed changes. Longer-term Treasury rates declined

somewhat in response to a weaker outlook for foreign economic activity and the potential

damping effect of lower commodity prices on inflation. Share prices in U.S. equity markets

remained volatile but posted substantial increases on balance over the intermeeting period.

In foreign exchange markets, the trade-weighted value of the dollar fell slightly over the

intermeeting period in relation to other major currencies and also in terms of an index of the

currencies of other countries that are important trading partners of the United States.

Concerns about the vulnerability of U.S. markets to financial difficulties in Brazil and

uncertainty generated by the impeachment proceedings were said to weigh on the dollar at

times. The dollar's larger decline against the Japanese yen than against the German mark and

other European currencies may have stemmed from a disparity in interest rate movements in

those countries; long-term interest rates rose in Japan, partly in anticipation of heightened

financing requirements associated with further fiscal stimulus, while European interest rates

fell in response to cuts in official interest rates and weaker-than-expected economic data.

Financial conditions affecting emerging market economies continued to improve for a time

after the Committee eased monetary policy at its November 17 meeting, but that trend was

subsequently reversed after Brazil's legislature decided to reject a key fiscal reform measure.

M2 and M3 had continued to expand rapidly in recent months, although incoming data

indicated that growth was slowing somewhat in December. The continued strength of M2 in

November reflected the reduction in its opportunity cost as a result of recent easings of

monetary policy, greater growth of liquid deposits in association with heavy mortgage

refinancing activity, and brisk demand for U.S. currency both at home and abroad. M3

growth was bolstered by further large flows into institution-only money market funds and

additional RP financing in association with hefty acquisitions of securities by banks. For the

year through November, both aggregates rose at rates well above the Committee's annual

ranges. Total domestic nonfinancial debt had expanded in recent months at a pace somewhat

above the middle of its range. Continued paydowns of debt by the federal government were

more than offset by appreciable growth of private demands for credit to finance strong

spending on durable goods, housing, and business investment, as well as merger and

acquisition activity.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting pointed to considerable slowing in the expansion

of economic activity in the year ahead to a pace somewhat below the estimated growth of the

economy's potential. However, the expansion was expected to pick up later to a rate more in

line with that potential. Subdued expansion of foreign economic activity and the lagged

effects of the earlier rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar were expected to place

continuing, albeit diminishing, restraint on the demand for U.S. exports for some period

ahead and to lead to further substitution of imports for domestic products. In addition, growth

in private final demand would be restrained to some extent by the tighter terms and

conditions that were now being imposed by many types of lenders, by the anticipated waning

of positive wealth effects stemming from earlier large increases in equity prices, and by the

buildup of stocks of consumer durables, housing units, and business capital goods. Pressures

on labor resources were likely to ease slightly as the expansion of economic activity

moderated, but inflation was projected to rise noticeably over the year ahead, largely in

association with a partial reversal of the decline in energy prices this year.

In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic conditions, members

commented that moderate growth at a pace close to the economy's potential remained a

reasonable expectation for the year ahead. The members recognized, however, that such a

projection was subject to an unusually wide range of uncertainty in both directions. On the

upside, they emphasized the marked resilience and persisting strength of private domestic

demand, which had kept the economy expanding at a faster pace than most had anticipated.

In addition, members commented that domestic financial conditions, including the rebound

in stock market prices, currently were supportive of further expansion in aggregate demand,

and in that regard several noted the continued rapid growth of the broad monetary

aggregates. Still, domestic financial markets remained unusually sensitive and subject to

relatively pronounced adjustments to unanticipated developments that could have substantial

effects on confidence and economic activity. The external sector continued to represent a

major source of downside risk; the economies of several industrial countries seemed to be

weakening, and the outlook for several key emerging market economies remained in doubt,

with a further loss of confidence and contagion from the latter a continuing threat. With

regard to the outlook for inflation, members reported that labor markets were extraordinarily

tight across the nation, but they saw only limited evidence of accelerating wage increases and

little or no evidence of rising inflation in broad measures of prices. Several commented,

however, that the risks of inflation appeared to be tilted to the upside, given the continuing

strength of the domestic expansion and accommodative financial conditions.

In their review of developments in various parts of the country and major industries,

members referred to widespread evidence of high levels and strong growth of overall

domestic production and demand, but also to the continued retarding effects of the foreign

trade sector on agriculture and manufacturing and extractive industries. Growth in consumer

spending was expected to moderate over coming quarters from a very robust pace. Factors

contributing to this assessment included expectations of somewhat slower growth in

employment and incomes and the prospect that increases in financial wealth would moderate

or even end at some point. Members also referred to the possibility that the very low saving

rate would tend to limit increases in consumer spending, but they noted that high levels of

consumer confidence and wealth along with low interest rates should help to sustain at least

moderate growth in coming quarters.

Forecasts of business investment spending pointed to appreciable deceleration in the year

ahead after very rapid increases in recent years. Among the factors cited in support of a

slowing uptrend were the anticipated slower growth in overall demand and the large

cumulative buildup of business capital that had resulted in comparatively subdued pressures

on capacity. Forecasts of reduced growth in business expenditures tended to be supported by

anecdotal reports that many business firms were planning to trim their capital outlays during

the year ahead. Perhaps the slower growth in corporate earnings, which had been evident

since earlier in the year, and reduced cash flows were beginning to exert some restraint on

business capital spending. Some members observed, however, that there was little evidence

thus far of any deceleration in business equipment expenditures and that the persistence of

tight labor markets should continue to encourage relatively rapid growth in labor-saving

business capital.

Housing activity had displayed a great deal of strength in recent months according to both

anecdotal and statistical reports at this meeting. Comparatively warm weather had extended

the building season in several areas, while rising incomes and low interest rates had

continued to stimulate housing demand. Some retrenchment in housing activity from

currently high levels seemed likely over coming quarters, given the recent large additions to

the stock of housing units and some anticipated deceleration in the growth of jobs and

incomes.

Members viewed the foreign sector as likely to exert a smaller negative effect on domestic

growth in the year ahead. This view was based on the expectation of some stabilization or

improvement in foreign financial markets and economies. In addition, the foreign exchange

value of the dollar had been declining in recent months, and the effects of its earlier

appreciation on the trade balance would be waning. However, they recognized that net

exports could turn out to be substantially more negative than the modal forecast, given the

persistence of very fragile financial and economic conditions in several large emerging

economies, continued weakness in the Japanese economy, and questions about the

prospective strength of economic activity in other industrial nations. As recent experience

had demonstrated, a crisis in one or a group of important financial markets and economies

could spread rapidly around the world.

The outlook for inflation remained favorable, though some members referred to a number of

upside risks going forward. For now, however, there were few signs of rising price inflation

despite widespread indications of very tight labor markets, including reports of further

tightening in some areas. Indeed, the most recent wage and price data were encouraging.

Increases in core measures of prices were limited and sizable declines in oil and commodity

prices should help to moderate inflation going forward, in part by holding down inflation

expectations. Looking beyond the nearer term, current forecasts suggested that moderating

growth in overall economic activity would tend to limit pressures on resources and foster

relatively subdued price inflation in the context of robust productivity growth and ample

industrial capacity. Members who viewed the risks as tilted mainly to the upside commented

that the effects of the anticipated reversal of a number of factors--including the declines in oil

and commodity prices and restrained increases in health care costs--that had tended to hold

down overall inflation might turn out to be more pronounced than was currently forecast.

Moreover, underlying cost and price pressures might emerge more rapidly under such

circumstances, especially if overall demand continued to outpace the growth of potential.

Some members also referred to the potential inflationary effects over time of the continuation

of quite rapid monetary growth. On balance, however, the members generally believed that

prospective trends in overall economic activity and the persistence of strong competitive

pressures in most markets, including the effects of foreign competition, were likely in the

context of now firmly embedded expectations of low inflation to moderate any tendency for

price inflation to accelerate over the year ahead.

In the Committee's discussion of policy for the intermeeting period, all the members agreed

on the desirability of maintaining an unchanged policy stance. The System's policy easing

actions since late September had helped to stabilize a dangerously eroding financial situation,

and current financial conditions as well as underlying economic trends suggested that needed

policy adjustments had been completed. For now at least, monetary policy appeared to be

consistent with the Committee's objectives of fostering sustained low inflation and high

employment. Accordingly, the Committee had entered a period where vigilance was called

for but where the direction and timing of the next policy move were uncertain.

As already noted, Committee members saw risks on both sides of their forecasts. Persistently

strong demand and increasingly supportive conditions in debt and equity markets suggested

the possibility of rising inflation pressures. But greater disturbances abroad, especially if they

were to be transmitted to domestic financial markets, could exert considerable restraint on the

domestic economy. Fortunately, with low inflation, if not price stability, increasingly

embedded in expectations, the Committee would have time to react to potential inflationary

pressures. In the event of downward shocks to the expansion, prompt action to ease policy

would be needed, but such shocks could not be anticipated at this point. Against this

background, all the members indicated that they were in favor of retaining the symmetry in

the existing directive.

Prior to its vote on policy at this meeting, the Committee discussed the wording of the

operating paragraph of the directive, building on progress made toward a consensus at

previous meetings. Attention focused in part on proposed new wording to describe the

possibility of intermeeting actions. There were minor differences about specific wording, but

no strongly held opinions, and all the members agreed that the new wording preferred by a

majority of the members represented an improvement over the traditional language in that it

would communicate more clearly and succinctly the substance of the Committee's policy

decisions. The Committee also discussed deleting the last sentence in the operating paragraph

relating to the outlook for the growth of money; another paragraph in the directive would

continue to report the long-run ranges for such growth that the Federal Reserve Act requires

the Committee to establish. With regard to the proposed deletion, some felt it was desirable

for the central bank to retain a reference to money in the operating paragraph; more members

supported the deletion on the ground that, as had been explained to the Congress, money

growth had not had any special significance for some time in the formulation of monetary

policy owing to often unexplained and unexpected changes in velocity. The rewording of the

sentence on symmetry and the deletion of the sentence on money were not intended to imply

any change in policy or the Committee's approach to policy or its decisionmaking.

At the conclusion of the Committee's discussion, all the members supported a reworded

directive that called for maintaining conditions in reserve markets that were consistent with

an unchanged federal funds rate of about 4-3/4 percent and did not contain any bias with

respect to the direction of possible adjustments to policy during the intermeeting period.

The Committee then voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,

until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance

with the following domestic policy directive:

The information reviewed at this meeting suggests that the economy has

continued to expand at a brisk pace in recent months. Growth in nonfarm payroll

employment was strong in November, after more moderate gains in September

and October, and the civilian unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent. Total

industrial production declined somewhat in November, but manufacturing output

was stable and up considerably from the third-quarter pace. Business inventory

accumulation slowed appreciably in October after a sizable rise in the third

quarter. The nominal deficit on U.S. trade in goods and services narrowed

slightly in October from its third-quarter average. Total retail sales rose sharply

in October and November, and housing starts were strong as well. Available

indicators point to a considerable pickup in business capital spending after a lull

in the third quarter. Trends in various measures of wages and prices have been

mixed in recent months.

Most short-term interest rates have changed little on balance since the meeting

on November 17, but longer- term rates have declined somewhat. Share prices in

equity markets have remained volatile and have posted sizable gains on balance

over the intermeeting period. In foreign exchange markets, the trade-weighted

value of the dollar has declined slightly over the period in relation to other major

currencies and in terms of an index of the currencies of other countries that are

important trading partners of the United States.

M2 and M3 have posted very large increases in recent months. For the year

through November, both aggregates rose at rates well above the Committee's

annual ranges. Total domestic nonfinancial debt has expanded in recent months

at a pace somewhat above the middle of its range.

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions

that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. In

furtherance of these objectives, the Committee reaffirmed at its meeting on June

30-July 1 the ranges it had established in February for growth of M2 and M3 of

1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter

of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 1998. The range for growth of total domestic

nonfinancial debt was maintained at 3 to 7 percent for the year. For 1999, the

Committee agreed on a tentative basis to set the same ranges for growth of the

monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the

fourth quarter of 1999. The behavior of the monetary aggregates will continue to

be evaluated in the light of progress toward price level stability, movements in

their velocities, and developments in the economy and financial markets.

To promote the Committee's long-run objectives of price stability and

sustainable economic growth, the Committee in the immediate future seeks

conditions in reserve markets consistent with maintaining the federal funds rate

at an average of around 4-3/4 percent. In view of the evidence currently

available, the Committee believes that prospective developments are equally

likely to warrant an increase or a decrease in the federal funds rate operating

objective during the intermeeting period.

Votes for this action: Messrs. Greenspan, McDonough, Ferguson, Gramlich,

Hoenig, Jordan, Kelley, Meyer, Ms. Minehan, Mr. Poole, and Ms. Rivlin.

Votes against this action: None.

Disclosure Policy

The members also discussed various issues relating to the timing and manner of releasing

information about the Committee's policy decisions. A range of views was expressed, as at

earlier meetings, on the desirability of releasing a statement routinely not only after those

meetings at which there was a change in the stance of policy but also after meetings where

the Committee altered its view of the direction of possible policy actions during the

intermeeting period. Members who favored more announcements believed that such

disclosure, by providing more information on the Committee's views of the risks in the

economic outlook, generally would allow financial market prices to reflect more accurately

the likely future stance of monetary policy. However, other members were concerned that

such announcements often would provoke market reactions. As a consequence, the

Committee would become less willing to change the symmetry in the directive, and a policy

of immediate release might therefore have adverse repercussions on the Committee's

decision-making. Nonetheless, the members decided to implement the previously stated

policy of releasing, on an infrequent basis, an announcement immediately after certain

FOMC meetings when the stance of monetary policy remained unchanged. Specifically, the

Committee would do so on those occasions when it wanted to communicate to the public a

major shift in its views about the balance of risks or the likely direction of future policy. Such

announcements would not be made after every change in the symmetry of the directive, but

only when it seemed important for the public to be aware of an important shift in the

members' views. On the basis of experience with such announcements, the Committee would

evaluate later whether further changes in its approach to disclosures would be desirable.

It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday-Wednesday,

February 2-3, 1999.

The meeting adjourned at 12:55 p.m.

Donald L. Kohn

Secretary

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