FOMC Minutes
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
October 28–29, 2014
A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was
held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on
Tuesday, October 28, 2014, at 1:00 p.m. and continued
on Wednesday, October 29, 2014, at 9:00 a.m.
Michael S. Gibson, Director, Division of Banking
Supervision and Regulation, Board of Governors
PRESENT:
Janet L. Yellen, Chair
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
Lael Brainard
Stanley Fischer
Richard W. Fisher
Narayana Kocherlakota
Loretta J. Mester
Charles I. Plosser
Jerome H. Powell
Daniel K. Tarullo
Stephen A. Meyer and William R. Nelson, Deputy
Directors, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of
Governors
Christine Cumming, Charles L. Evans, Jeffrey M.
Lacker, Dennis P. Lockhart, and John C. Williams,
Alternate Members of the Federal Open Market
Committee
James Bullard, Esther L. George, and Eric Rosengren,
Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of St.
Louis, Kansas City, and Boston, respectively
William B. English, Secretary and Economist
Matthew M. Luecke, Deputy Secretary
Michelle A. Smith, Assistant Secretary
Scott G. Alvarez, General Counsel
Thomas C. Baxter, Deputy General Counsel
Steven B. Kamin, Economist
David W. Wilcox, Economist
James A. Clouse, Thomas A. Connors, Evan F.
Koenig, Thomas Laubach, Samuel SchulhoferWohl, and William Wascher, Associate Economists
Simon Potter, Manager, System Open Market Account
Lorie K. Logan, Deputy Manager, System Open
Market Account
Robert deV. Frierson,1 Secretary of the Board, Office
of the Secretary, Board of Governors
Nellie Liang, Director, Office of Financial Stability
Policy and Research, Board of Governors
Andrew Figura, David Reifschneider, and Stacey
Tevlin, Special Advisers to the Board, Office of
Board Members, Board of Governors
Trevor A. Reeve, Special Adviser to the Chair, Office
of Board Members, Board of Governors
Linda Robertson, Assistant to the Board, Office of
Board Members, Board of Governors
Christopher J. Erceg, Senior Associate Director,
Division of International Finance, Board of
Governors
Ellen E. Meade and Joyce K. Zickler, Senior Advisers,
Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
Eric M. Engen and David E. Lebow, Associate Directors, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of
Governors; Fabio M. Natalucci,1 Associate Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
Joseph W. Gruber, Deputy Associate Director,
Division of International Finance, Board of
Governors; John J. Stevens,2 Deputy Associate
Director, Division of Research and Statistics,
Board of Governors
Steven A. Sharpe, Assistant Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors
_____________________________
Attended the joint session of the Federal Open Market
Committee and the Board of Governors.
2 Attended the portion of the meeting following the joint
session of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board
of Governors.
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Patrick E. McCabe,1 Adviser, Division of Research and
Statistics, Board of Governors; Robert J. Tetlow,3
Adviser, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of
Governors
Penelope A. Beattie,1 Assistant to the Secretary, Office
of the Secretary, Board of Governors
Christopher J. Gust, Section Chief, Division of
Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
David H. Small, Project Manager, Division of
Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
Katie Ross,1 Manager, Office of the Secretary, Board of
Governors
Canlin Li, Senior Economist, Division of Monetary
Affairs, Board of Governors
Randall A. Williams, Records Project Manager,
Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
Helen E. Holcomb, First Vice President, Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas
David Altig, Jeff Fuhrer, James J. McAndrews, and
Glenn D. Rudebusch, Executive Vice Presidents,
Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, New
York, and San Francisco, respectively
Troy Davig, Michael Dotsey, Joshua L. Frost,1 Spencer
Krane, and Christopher J. Waller, Senior Vice
Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City,
Philadelphia, New York, Chicago, and St. Louis,
respectively
Todd E. Clark and Douglas Tillett, Vice Presidents,
Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and Chicago,
respectively
Andreas L. Hornstein, Senior Advisor, Federal Reserve
Bank of Richmond
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Attended the joint session of the Federal Open Market
Committee and the Board of Governors.
3 Attended the discussion of longer-run goals and monetary
policy strategy.
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Developments in Financial Markets and the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
In a joint session of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, the deputy manager of the System
Open Market Account (SOMA) reported on developments in domestic and foreign financial markets as well
as System open market operations conducted during the
period since the Committee met on September 16–17,
2014. In addition, the deputy manager summarized the
outcomes of recent test operations of the Term Deposit
Facility, described the results from the overnight reverse
repurchase agreement (ON RRP) operational exercise,
and reviewed the implications of recent foreign central
bank policy actions for the international portion of the
SOMA portfolio. The SOMA manager then discussed
the Open Market Desk’s plans for modestly expanding
the list of counterparties eligible to participate in ON
RRP operations based on substantially the same criteria
established in the past for such counterparties. The
manager also described ongoing staff work on improving data collections regarding bank funding markets and
possibly using those data to provide more robust
measures of bank funding rates. Finally, the manager
reported on potential arrangements that would allow depository institutions to pledge funds held in a segregated
account at the Federal Reserve as collateral in borrowing
transactions with private creditors and would provide an
additional supplementary tool during policy normalization; the manager noted possible next steps that the staff
could potentially undertake to investigate the issues related to such arrangements.
Next, the staff outlined two proposals that the Committee could consider for further testing of RRP operations.
In the first proposal, the Desk would vary by modest
amounts the interest rate on ON RRP operations according to a preannounced schedule. Varying the spread
between the ON RRP rate and the interest on excess reserves rate could provide the Committee with information about the effect of that spread on money markets
and the demand for ON RRP. In addition, changes in
the ON RRP rate would provide further information
about the effectiveness of an ON RRP facility in providing a floor for money market rates during policy normalization. In the second proposal, the Desk would conduct a series of preannounced term RRP operations that
would extend across the end of the year. In their discussion of term RRP testing, participants noted that the
testing could provide information about the potential effectiveness of another of the Committee’s supplemen-
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tary policy tools and would help address expected downward pressures on short-term rates at year-end. But it
was also noted that by conducting the term RRPs, the
Committee would be losing information on how market
participants might adjust and make investment arrangements prior to year-end with only the $300 billion in ON
RRP available. One participant commented that the
downward pressure on rates at year-end might be more
directly addressed by raising the overall size limit on the
ON RRP exercise. However, it was emphasized that increasing the cap on ON RRP operations at year-end
could raise the risks for financial markets that had led
the FOMC to impose the cap; these concerns were seen
as less pronounced with a temporary program of term
RRP operations. It was also noted that the proposed
term RRP operations were only a test and that the Committee had not yet decided the conditions under which
such operations would be used in the future.
Following the discussion of the testing of RRP operations, the Committee unanimously approved the following resolution on the ON RRP exercise:
“The Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) modifies the authorization concerning overnight reverse repurchase operations
adopted at the September 17, 2014, FOMC
meeting as follows:
(i) The offering rate of the operations may
vary from zero to ten basis points.
This modification shall be effective beginning
with the operation conducted on November 3, 2014, and conclude with the operation
conducted on December 12, 2014.”
By unanimous vote, the Committee approved the following resolution on term RRP operations:
“During the period of December 1, 2014, to
December 30, 2014, the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) authorizes the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York to conduct a series of term reverse repurchase operations involving U.S. Government securities. Such
operations shall: (i) mature no later than January 5, 2015; (ii) be subject to an overall size
limit of $300 billion outstanding at any one
time; (iii) be subject to a maximum bid rate of
Following the conclusion of the meeting, the Desk released
a statement outlining the planned ON RRP and term RRP exercises.
ten basis points; (iv) be awarded to all submitters: (A) at the highest submitted rate if the
sum of the bids received is less than or equal
to the preannounced size of the operation, or
(B) at the stopout rate, determined by evaluating bids in ascending order by submitted
rate up to the point at which the total quantity
of bids equals the preannounced size of the
operation, with all bids below this rate
awarded in full at the stopout rate and all bids
at the stopout rate awarded on a pro rata basis,
if the sum of the counterparty offers received
is greater than the preannounced size of the
operation. Such operations may be for forward settlement. The System Open Market
Account manager will inform the FOMC in
advance of the terms of the planned operations. The Chair must approve the terms of,
timing of the announcement of, and timing of
the operations. These operations shall be
conducted in addition to the authorized overnight reverse repurchase agreements, which
remain subject to a separate overall size limit
of $300 billion per day.”
By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified the Desk’s
domestic transactions over the intermeeting period.
There were no intervention operations in foreign currencies for the System’s account over the intermeeting period.
The Board meeting concluded at the end of the discussion of developments in financial markets and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.
Staff Review of the Economic Situation
The information reviewed for the October 28–29 meeting indicated that economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter and that labor market conditions improved over the intermeeting period. Consumer price inflation continued to run below the
FOMC’s longer-run objective of 2 percent. Marketbased measures of inflation compensation declined
somewhat, while survey-based measures of longer-term
inflation expectations remained stable.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose in September
and the gains for July and August were revised up, leaving the average increase in the third quarter similar to
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that for the first half of the year. In September, the unemployment rate declined to 5.9 percent, and the share
of workers employed part time for economic reasons decreased a little. The labor force participation rate edged
down, and the employment-to-population ratio remained essentially unchanged. Other indicators generally suggested a continued improvement in labor market
conditions. Although the rate of gross private-sector
hiring declined, the rate of job openings moved up,
measures of firms’ hiring plans increased, initial claims
for unemployment insurance remained low, and some
measures of household expectations for labor market
conditions improved.
Industrial production increased briskly in September after having been little changed, on net, over the first two
months of the quarter, and the rate of capacity utilization
in the manufacturing sector moved up. Readings on
new orders from the national and regional manufacturing surveys were generally consistent with moderate
near-term increases in factory output, but automakers’
production schedules for the fourth quarter pointed to
some slowing in the pace of motor vehicle assemblies.
Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) appeared to have increased at a modest pace in the third
quarter. The components of the nominal retail sales data
used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to construct
its estimates of PCE were, in total, little changed in September following solid gains in July and August. In addition, sales of light motor vehicles fell back in September following a steep increase in August. Recent data on
factors that tend to support household spending were
mixed. Real disposable income continued to increase in
August, and consumer sentiment as measured by the
Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of
Consumers improved in September and early October.
In contrast, household net worth likely decreased because of a decline in equity prices.
Housing market conditions seemed to be improving
only slowly. Starts and permits of single-family homes
were little changed, on net, in recent months. New
home sales were flat in September after moving up in
August, and sales of existing single-family homes moved
essentially sideways over the past several months.
Real spending on business equipment and intellectual
property products appeared to have risen at a moderate
pace in the third quarter. Nominal shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were little changed,
on net, in August and September after a solid increase in
July. New orders for these capital goods declined in Sep-
tember but remained above the level of shipments, indicating that shipments may increase further in subsequent
months. Other forward-looking indicators, such as national and regional surveys of business conditions, were
generally consistent with moderate gains in business
equipment spending in the near term. Nominal business
spending for new nonresidential construction decreased
in August, and vacancy rates for nonresidential buildings
remained elevated. Meanwhile, inventories in most industries were about in line with sales; in the energy sector, inventories appeared somewhat lean despite substantial stockbuilding since earlier in the year.
Total real government purchases appeared to have risen
modestly in the third quarter. Federal government purchases likely increased, as nominal defense spending was
higher in the third quarter than in the second quarter. In
addition, real state and local government purchases
probably rose somewhat, as the payrolls of these governments expanded and their nominal construction expenditures increased during the third quarter.
The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed slightly in
August. Following large increases in July, both exports
and imports grew only modestly, with gains concentrated in capital goods excluding automotive products.
Total U.S. consumer price inflation, as measured by the
PCE price index, was about 1½ percent over the
12 months ending in August. Over the 12 months ending in September, both the consumer price index (CPI)
and the CPI excluding food and energy prices rose about
1¾ percent. Consumer energy prices declined further in
September, largely reflecting continued declines in retail
gasoline prices, and survey data suggested gasoline prices
fell further over the first few weeks of October. Consumer food prices rose solidly in recent months. Nearterm inflation expectations from the Michigan survey
declined in September and early October, while longerterm inflation expectations in the survey were little
changed.
Foreign economies appeared to have continued to expand at a moderate rate in the third quarter, although
with considerable divergence across countries. In Japan,
consumption staged a mild rebound after contracting in
the previous quarter in response to a tax increase, while
indicators for the euro area pointed to only continued
sluggish growth. Third-quarter growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) remained healthy in the United
Kingdom, and indicators for Canada also were positive.
Among emerging market economies, GDP growth remained strong in the third quarter in China and Korea
and indicators for Mexico were favorable as well. The
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Brazilian economy appeared to be stabilizing. Foreign
inflation remained generally subdued and in some regions quite low, especially in the euro area, where headline inflation was well below 1 percent.
Staff Review of the Financial Situation
Concerns about the global economic outlook apparently
helped to prompt a sharp pullback from risky assets in
the United States, but prices of those assets subsequently
reversed much of their declines by the end of the intermeeting period. In addition, a number of technical factors reportedly contributed to volatile interest rate
moves in mid-October. Worries about a possible spread
of Ebola also appeared to weigh on market sentiment
somewhat at times. On net, yields on longer-term Treasury securities fell notably, U.S. equity prices edged down,
corporate bond spreads widened modestly, and the dollar appreciated moderately against most other currencies.
Federal Reserve communications were reportedly
viewed as slightly more accommodative than anticipated, on balance. The expected path of the federal
funds rate implied by market quotes shifted down notably, on net, over the period. Market-based measures
suggested that the expected date of the first increase in
the federal funds rate was pushed out from the third
quarter of 2015 to late 2015. However, the results from
the Desk’s October Survey of Primary Dealers indicated
that the dealers’ projected path of the federal funds rate
was little changed from the September survey, with dealers continuing to see the middle of next year as the most
likely time of liftoff.
The Treasury market experienced significant volatility
on October 15, with 5- and 10-year Treasury yields dropping as much as 30 basis points in about an hour before
retracing much of those moves by the end of the day.
Amid very high trading volumes, Treasury market liquidity, as measured by bid–asked spreads, worsened significantly, and measures of the implied volatility of longerterm rates jumped on the day but subsequently fell back.
While the release of the somewhat weaker-thanexpected data for September U.S. retail sales was seen as
the trigger for these sharp movements, market participants indicated that a number of technical factors related
to investor positioning and trading strategies likely amplified the swing in interest rates.
Over the intermeeting period as a whole, longer-term
nominal Treasury yields declined about 30 basis points.
Market-based measures of inflation compensation
moved lower as well, extending the declines seen since
the summer. The decline in inflation compensation reportedly reflected in part concerns about global growth
and the risk of building disinflationary pressures, the
lower-than-expected August CPI report, the decline in
oil prices, and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Yields
on agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) declined
roughly in line with comparable Treasury yields, while
spreads on both investment- and speculative-grade corporate bonds widened modestly relative to Treasury securities.
The S&P 500 index decreased about 1 percent, on net,
over the intermeeting period. Option-implied volatility
for the S&P 500 index over the next month increased
moderately, on balance, ending the period below its
long-run historical average, though during the midOctober volatility spike, it briefly touched high levels last
seen in 2011. About half of the firms in the S&P 500
index reported earnings for the third quarter, with the
reports generally viewed as positive. Overall, thirdquarter earnings estimates continued to imply modest
growth in earnings per share compared with the previous quarter.
Despite some volatility related to quarter-end, conditions in unsecured funding markets were little changed,
on net, over the intermeeting period. In secured funding
markets, some money market rates fell in the days leading up to quarter-end, reportedly reflecting in part the
announcement of the $300 billion overall size limit on
the ON RRP exercise following the September FOMC
meeting. After quarter-end, however, short-term rates
generally moved back toward their preannouncement
levels.
Credit flows to nonfinancial business picked up in September and early October. Gross issuance of investment- and speculative-grade bonds rebounded from seasonal lows over the summer, notwithstanding the slowdown during the mid-October market volatility spike.
Commercial and industrial loans on banks’ books continued to expand at a robust pace in the third quarter,
consistent with the strong demand from large and
middle-market firms reported in the October Senior
Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS). In the leveraged loan market, institutional issuance slowed some in September, though investors’ interest in the asset class remained strong.
Financing conditions in the commercial real estate
(CRE) market continued to ease. According to the October SLOOS, banks eased CRE lending standards, on
net, and reported stronger demand for such loans.
Growth of CRE loans on the balance sheets of large
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banks slowed in the third quarter, while growth at small
banks remained moderate. Issuance of commercial
mortgage-backed securities stayed robust in September.
Over the intermeeting period, mortgage rates to qualified borrowers declined about 25 basis points. The decline in rates coincided with an appreciable increase in
the volume of refinancing activity. Mortgage lending
conditions were little changed on net.
Conditions in most consumer credit markets remained
accommodative during the third quarter. Auto loans
continued to be widely available, and respondents to the
October SLOOS indicated that demand for auto loans
had strengthened further in the third quarter. In addition, demand for credit card loans increased, and a few
large banks reported having eased lending policies on
such loans.
As in the United States, participants in foreign financial
markets became more concerned, on balance, about
prospects for global economic growth. On net over the
period, equity indexes were down in most advanced and
emerging market economies, and measures of implied
volatility rose. Benchmark sovereign yields fell sharply,
with German yields reaching record lows. Expected policy rate paths moved down in most advanced economies, and market-based measures of inflation compensation continued to decline. The Riksbank unexpectedly
cut its main policy rate to zero in response to the low
level of Swedish inflation. Spreads on peripheral European sovereign bonds increased, modestly for most
countries but more substantially for Greek bonds, reflecting, in part, market concerns that Greece might exit
its International Monetary Fund program prematurely.
Spreads on emerging market bonds generally edged
higher. In addition, the broad nominal dollar index
ended the period moderately higher.
The European Central Bank released the results of the
2014 comprehensive assessment, which included both
an asset quality review and a forward-looking stress test.
Under the stress test, which recognizes capital raising
and balance sheet adjustments through September 2014,
13 banks were identified as needing to strengthen their
capital positions and 8 will be required to raise net new
capital. The results were broadly in line with expectations, and the market reaction to the release was limited.
The staff’s periodic report on potential risks to financial
stability noted that recent developments in financial
markets highlighted the potential for shocks to trigger
increases in market volatility and declines in asset prices
that could undermine financial stability. Nevertheless,
the U.S. financial system appeared resilient to shocks of
the magnitude seen recently due to the relatively strong
capital and liquidity profiles of large domestic banking
firms, subdued aggregate leverage in the nonfinancial
sector, and relatively restrained use of short-term wholesale funding across the financial sector. However, the
staff report also pointed to asset valuation pressures that
were broadening, as well as a loosening of underwriting
standards in the speculative corporate debt and CRE
markets; it noted the need to closely monitor these developments going forward.
Staff Economic Outlook
The information on economic activity received since the
staff prepared its forecast for the September FOMC
meeting was close to expectations, and therefore, the
staff’s projection for real GDP growth over the remainder of the year was little revised. However, in response
to a further rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar, a deterioration in global growth prospects, and a decline in equity prices, the staff revised down its projection for real GDP growth a little over the medium term.
Even with the slower expansion of economic activity in
this projection, real GDP was still expected to rise faster
than potential output in 2015 and 2016, supported by
accommodative monetary policy and a further easing of
the restraint on spending from changes in fiscal policy;
in 2017, real GDP growth was projected to step down
toward the rate of potential output growth. As a result,
resource slack was anticipated to decline steadily, albeit
at a slightly slower rate than in the previous projection,
and the unemployment rate was expected to gradually
improve and to be at the staff’s estimate of its longerrun natural rate in 2017.
The staff’s forecast for inflation this quarter and early
next year was reduced in response to further declines in
crude oil prices, but the forecast for inflation over the
medium term was only a touch lower. Consumer price
inflation was projected to be lower in the second half of
this year than in the first half and to remain below the
Committee’s longer-run objective of 2 percent over the
next few years. With resource slack projected to diminish slowly and changes in commodity and import prices
anticipated to be subdued, inflation was projected to rise
gradually and to reach the Committee’s objective in the
longer run.
The staff continued to view the uncertainty around its
projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment
rate, and inflation as similar to the average over the past
20 years. The risks to the forecast for real GDP growth
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and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting recent financial developments and concerns about
the foreign economic outlook, as well as the staff’s assessment that neither monetary policy nor fiscal policy
appeared well positioned to help the economy withstand
adverse shocks. At the same time, the staff continued to
view the risks around its outlook for the unemployment
rate as roughly balanced.
Participants’ Views on Current Conditions and the
Economic Outlook
In their discussion of the economic situation and the
outlook, most meeting participants viewed the information received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate; on balance, participants judged that the underutilization of labor resources was gradually diminishing. Participants generally expected that, over the medium term, real economic activity would increase at a
pace sufficient to lead to a further gradual decline in the
unemployment rate toward levels consistent with the
Committee’s objective of maximum employment. Inflation was continuing to run below the Committee’s
longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined somewhat, while surveybased measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable. Participants anticipated that inflation
would be held down over the near term by the decline in
energy prices and other factors, but would move toward
the Committee’s 2 percent goal in coming years, although a few expressed concern that inflation might persist below the Committee’s objective for quite some
time. Most viewed the risks to the outlook for economic
activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. However, a number of participants noted that economic
growth over the medium term might be slower than they
currently expected if the foreign economic or financial
situation deteriorated significantly.
Household spending advanced at a moderate pace over
the intermeeting period, and reports from contacts in
several parts of the country indicated that recent retail or
auto sales had been robust. However, one participant
pointed to mixed retail sales reports that likely reflected
a continuation of restrained discretionary spending on
the part of low- and middle-income households. Many
participants judged that the recent significant decline in
energy prices would provide a boost to consumer spending over the near term, with several of them noting that
the drop in gasoline prices would benefit lower-income
households in particular. Among the other favorable
factors that were expected to support continued growth
in consumer spending, participants cited solid gains in
payroll employment, low interest rates, rising consumer
confidence, and the decline in levels of household debt
relative to income.
The recovery in the housing sector remained slow despite low interest rates and some recent improvement in
the availability of mortgage credit. Contacts in some
parts of the country reported continued weakness in
single-family construction, while in other regions activity
reportedly was picking up gradually following a sluggish
summer. A few participants pointed to continued strong
growth in multifamily construction, although the limited
pipeline of new projects in one District suggested that
activity could slow in 2015.
Reports from business contacts in many parts of the
country pointed to an improvement in business conditions, with indexes of the manufacturing sector posting
broad-based gains in recent months in a number of Districts. A couple of participants reported expectations of
a robust holiday sales season based on accumulating inventories of consumer goods or an increase in e-commerce traffic and related transportation activity. Contacts in several regions reported ready availability of
credit, strong loan growth, or a steady increase in commercial construction activity. While the fall in energy
prices was generally regarded as a positive development
for many businesses, it was noted that a sustained drop
in prices would have effects on oil drilling and related
investment activity. In the agricultural sector, the robust
fall harvest had driven down crop prices; food processing and farm equipment businesses were slowing as
a result of lower farm income and a drop in exports.
In discussing economic developments abroad, participants pointed to a somewhat weaker economic outlook
and increased downside risks in Europe, China, and Japan, as well as to the strengthening of the dollar over the
period. It was observed that if foreign economic or financial conditions deteriorated further, U.S. economic
growth over the medium term might be slower than currently expected. However, many participants saw the effects of recent developments on the domestic economy
as likely to be quite limited. These participants suggested
variously that the share of external trade in the U.S.
economy is relatively small, that the effects of changes
in the value of the dollar on net exports are modest, that
shifts in the structure of U.S. trade and production over
time may have reduced the effects on U.S. trade of developments like those seen of late, or that the slowdown
in external demand would likely prove to be less severe
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than initially feared. Several participants judged that the
decline in the prices of energy and other commodities as
well as lower long-term interest rates would likely provide an offset to the higher dollar and weaker foreign
growth, or that the domestic recovery remained on a
firm footing.
Indicators of labor market conditions continued to improve over the intermeeting period, with a further reduction in the unemployment rate, declines in longerduration unemployment, strong growth in payroll employment, and a low level of initial claims for unemployment insurance. Business contacts reported employment gains in several parts of the country, with relatively
few pointing to emerging wage pressures, although one
participant indicated that larger wage gains had been accruing to some individuals who switched jobs. Labor
market conditions indexes constructed from a broad set
of indicators suggested that the underutilization of labor
had continued to diminish, although a number of participants noted that underutilization of labor market resources remained. A couple of participants judged that
the large number of individuals working part time for
economic reasons and the continued drift down in the
labor force participation rate suggested that the unemployment rate was understating the degree of labor market underutilization.
Most participants anticipated that inflation was likely to
edge lower in the near term, reflecting the decline in oil
and other commodity prices and lower import prices.
These participants continued to expect inflation to move
back to the Committee’s 2 percent target over the medium term as resource slack diminished in an environment of well-anchored inflation expectations, although
a few of them thought the return to 2 percent might be
quite gradual. Survey-based measures of inflation expectations remained well anchored, but market-based
measures of inflation compensation over the next five
years as well as over the five-year period beginning five
years ahead had declined over the intermeeting period.
Various explanations were offered for the decline in the
market-based measures, and participants expressed different views about how to interpret these recent movements. The explanations included a decline in inflation
risk premiums, possibly reflecting a lower perceived
probability of higher inflation outcomes; and special factors, including liquidity risk premiums, that might be influencing the pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation derivatives. One participant noted
that even if the declines reflected lower inflation risk premiums and not a reduction in expected inflation, policy-
makers might still want to take them into account because such a change could reflect increased concerns on
the part of investors about adverse outcomes in which
low inflation was accompanied by weak economic activity. A couple of participants noted that it was likely too
early to draw conclusions regarding these developments,
especially in light of the recent market volatility. However, many participants observed that the Committee
should remain attentive to evidence of a possible downward shift in longer-term inflation expectations; some of
them noted that if such an outcome occurred, it would
be even more worrisome if growth faltered.
In their discussion of financial market developments and
financial stability issues, participants judged that the
movements in the prices of stocks, bonds, commodities,
and the U.S. dollar over the intermeeting period appeared to have been driven primarily by concerns about
prospects for foreign economic growth. Many participants commented on the turbulence in financial markets
that occurred in mid-October. Some participants
pointed out that, despite the market volatility, financial
conditions remained highly accommodative and that
further pockets of turbulence were likely to arise as the
start of policy normalization approached. That said,
more work to better understand the recent market dynamics was seen as desirable. In addition, a couple of
participants noted the potential usefulness of collecting
additional data on wholesale funding markets in order to
better understand how changes in interest rates could influence those markets.
In their discussion of communications regarding the
path of the federal funds rate over the medium term,
meeting participants agreed that the timing of the first
increase in the federal funds rate and the appropriate
path of the policy rate thereafter would depend on incoming economic data and their implications for the
outlook. Most participants judged that it would be helpful to include new language in the Committee’s forward
guidance to clarify how the Committee’s decision about
when to begin the policy normalization process will depend on incoming information about the economy.
Some participants preferred to eliminate language in the
statement indicating that the current target range for the
federal funds rate would likely be maintained for a “considerable time” after the end of the asset purchase program. These participants were concerned that such a
characterization could be misinterpreted as suggesting
that the Committee’s decisions would not depend on the
incoming data. However, other participants thought
that the “considerable time” phrase was useful in com-
Minutes of the Meeting of October 28–29, 2014
Page 9
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municating the Committee’s policy intentions or that additional wording could be used to emphasize the datadependence of the Committee’s decision process. A
couple of them noted that the removal of the “considerable time” phrase might be seen as signaling a significant
shift in the stance of policy, potentially resulting in an
unintended tightening of financial conditions. A couple
of others thought that the current forward guidance
might be read as suggesting an earlier date of liftoff than
was likely to prove appropriate, given the outlook for inflation and the downside risks to the economy associated
with the effective lower bound on interest rates. With
regard to the pace of interest rate increases after the start
of policy normalization, a number of participants
thought that it could soon be helpful to clarify the Committee’s likely approach. It was noted that communication about post-liftoff policy would pose challenges
given the inherent uncertainty of the economic and financial outlook and the Committee’s desire to retain
flexibility to adjust policy in response to the incoming
data. Most participants supported retaining the language
in the statement indicating that the Committee anticipates that economic conditions may warrant keeping the
target range for the federal funds rate below longer-run
normal levels even after employment and inflation are
near mandate-consistent levels. However, a couple of
participants thought that the language should be
amended in light of the prescriptions suggested by many
monetary policy rules and the risks associated with keeping interest rates below their longer-run values for an extended period of time.
Committee Policy Action
In their discussion of monetary policy for the period
ahead, members judged that information received since
the FOMC met in September indicated that economic
activity was expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions had improved somewhat further, with
solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate; on balance, a range of indicators suggested that underutilization of labor resources was gradually diminishing.
Household spending was rising moderately and business
fixed investment was advancing, while the recovery in
the housing sector remained slow. Inflation had continued to run below the Committee’s longer-run objective.
Market-based measures of inflation compensation had
declined somewhat, but survey-based measures of
longer-term inflation expectations had remained stable.
The Committee expected that, with appropriate policy
accommodation, economic activity would expand at a
moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.
In their discussion of language for the post-meeting
statement, a number of members judged that, while
some underutilization in the labor market remained, it
appeared to be gradually diminishing. In addition, members considered the advantages and disadvantages of
adding language to the statement to acknowledge recent
developments in financial markets. On the one hand,
including a reference would show that the Committee
was monitoring financial developments while also
providing an opportunity to note that financial conditions remained highly supportive of growth. On the
other hand, including a reference risked the possibility
of suggesting greater concern on the part of the Committee than was actually the case, perhaps leading to the
misimpression that monetary policy was likely to respond to increases in volatility. In the end, the Committee decided not to include such a reference. Finally, a
couple of members suggested including language in the
statement indicating that recent foreign economic developments had increased uncertainty or had boosted
downside risks to the U.S. economic outlook, but participants generally judged that such wording would suggest
greater pessimism about the economic outlook than they
thought appropriate.
In their discussion of the asset purchase program, members generally agreed that the condition articulated by
the Committee when it began the program in September
2012 had been achieved—that is, there had been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market—and that there was sufficient underlying strength in
the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability. Accordingly, all members but one supported concluding the Committee’s asset purchase program at the
end of October and maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency
debt and agency MBS in agency MBS and of rolling over
maturing Treasury securities at auction. By keeping the
Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable
levels, this policy was expected to help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
In addition, the Committee agreed to maintain the target
range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and to
reaffirm the indication in the statement that the Committee’s decision about how long to maintain the current
target range for the federal funds rate would depend on
its assessment of actual and expected progress toward its
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objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. All but one member agreed that the Committee
should reiterate the expectation that it likely would be
appropriate to maintain the current target range for the
federal funds rate for a considerable time following the
end of the asset purchase program in October, especially
if projected inflation continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that
longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored. The one member thought that the Committee
should instead strengthen the forward guidance in order
to underscore the Committee’s commitment to its 2 percent inflation objective. The Committee agreed to include additional wording in the statement in order to
emphasize that the Committee’s decision on the timing
of the first increase in the federal funds rate would be
data dependent. In particular, the statement would say
that, if incoming information indicated faster progress
toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases
in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely
occur sooner than currently anticipated. It would also
note that, if progress proves slower than expected, then
increases in the target range would likely occur later than
currently anticipated. The Committee also agreed to reiterate its expectation that, even after employment and
inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic
conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views
as normal in the longer run.
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee
voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank
of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to
execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with
the following domestic policy directive:
“Consistent with its statutory mandate, the
Federal Open Market Committee seeks
monetary and financial conditions that will
foster maximum employment and price
stability. In particular, the Committee seeks
conditions in reserve markets consistent with
federal funds trading in a range from 0 to
¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk
to undertake open market operations as
necessary to maintain such conditions. The
Desk is directed to conclude the current
program of purchases of longer-term
Treasury securities and agency mortgagebacked securities by the end of October. The
Committee directs the Desk to maintain its
policy of rolling over maturing Treasury
securities into new issues and its policy of
reinvesting principal payments on all agency
debt and agency mortgage-backed securities
in agency mortgage-backed securities. The
Committee also directs the Desk to engage in
dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as
necessary to facilitate settlement of the
Federal Reserve’s agency mortgage-backed
securities transactions. The System Open
Market Account manager and the secretary
will keep the Committee informed of ongoing
developments regarding the System’s balance
sheet that could affect the attainment over
time of the Committee’s objectives of
maximum employment and price stability.”
The vote encompassed approval of the statement below
to be released at 2:00 p.m.:
“Information received since the Federal Open
Market Committee met in September suggests
that economic activity is expanding at a
moderate pace. Labor market conditions
improved somewhat further, with solid job
gains and a lower unemployment rate. On
balance, a range of labor market indicators
suggests that underutilization of labor
resources
is
gradually
diminishing.
Household spending is rising moderately and
business fixed investment is advancing, while
the recovery in the housing sector remains
slow. Inflation has continued to run below
the Committee’s longer-run objective.
Market-based
measures
of
inflation
compensation have declined somewhat;
survey-based measures of longer-term
inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the
Committee seeks to foster maximum
employment and price stability.
The
Committee expects that, with appropriate
policy accommodation, economic activity will
expand at a moderate pace, with labor market
indicators and inflation moving toward levels
the Committee judges consistent with its dual
mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the
outlook for economic activity and the labor
market as nearly balanced. Although inflation
in the near term will likely be held down by
lower energy prices and other factors, the
Committee judges that the likelihood of
Minutes of the Meeting of October 28–29, 2014
Page 11
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
inflation running persistently below 2 percent
has diminished somewhat since early this year.
The Committee judges that there has been a
substantial improvement in the outlook for
the labor market since the inception of its
current asset purchase program. Moreover,
the Committee continues to see sufficient
underlying strength in the broader economy
to support ongoing progress toward
maximum employment in a context of price
stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided
to conclude its asset purchase program this
month. The Committee is maintaining its
existing policy of reinvesting principal
payments from its holdings of agency debt
and agency mortgage-backed securities in
agency mortgage-backed securities and of
rolling over maturing Treasury securities at
auction.
This policy, by keeping the
Committee’s holdings of longer-term
securities at sizable levels, should help
maintain accommodative financial conditions.
To support continued progress toward
maximum employment and price stability, the
Committee today reaffirmed its view that the
current 0 to ¼ percent target range for the
federal funds rate remains appropriate. In
determining how long to maintain this target
range, the Committee will assess progress—
both realized and expected—toward its
objectives of maximum employment and
2 percent inflation. This assessment will take
into account a wide range of information,
including measures of labor market
conditions, indicators of inflation pressures
and inflation expectations, and readings on
financial developments. The Committee
anticipates, based on its current assessment,
that it likely will be appropriate to maintain
the 0 to ¼ percent target range for the federal
funds rate for a considerable time following
the end of its asset purchase program this
month, especially if projected inflation
continues to run below the Committee’s
2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that
longer-term inflation expectations remain well
anchored. However, if incoming information
indicates faster progress toward the
Committee’s employment and inflation
objectives than the Committee now expects,
then increases in the target range for the
federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner
than currently anticipated. Conversely, if
progress proves slower than expected, then
increases in the target range are likely to occur
later than currently anticipated.
When the Committee decides to begin to
remove policy accommodation, it will take a
balanced approach consistent with its longerrun goals of maximum employment and
inflation of 2 percent. The Committee
currently anticipates that, even after
employment and inflation are near mandateconsistent levels, economic conditions may,
for some time, warrant keeping the target
federal funds rate below levels the Committee
views as normal in the longer run.”
Voting for this action: Janet L. Yellen, William C.
Dudley, Lael Brainard, Stanley Fischer, Richard W.
Fisher, Loretta J. Mester, Charles I. Plosser, Jerome H.
Powell, and Daniel K. Tarullo.
Voting against this action: Narayana Kocherlakota.
Mr. Kocherlakota dissented because he believed that, in
light of continued sluggishness in the inflation outlook
and the recent slide in market-based measures of longerterm inflation expectations, the Committee should commit to maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate at least until projected inflation one to
two years ahead has returned to 2 percent and should
continue the asset purchase program at its current pace.
Mr. Kocherlakota noted that when the Committee first
reduced its asset purchases in December 2013, it said in
the post-meeting statement that it would be monitoring
inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation was moving back toward its objective over the medium term; Mr. Kocherlakota indicated he saw no such
evidence.
Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy
In the discussion at the January 2014 FOMC meeting
regarding the annual reaffirmation of the Statement on
Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy,
participants noted that, while they were generally
satisfied with the statement, it would be appropriate to
consider whether any changes might be warranted
before the statement was reaffirmed in 2015. The
Committee subsequently referred the matter to the
subcommittee on communications, which identified
possible issues for consideration by the full Committee.
The subcommittee then asked the staff to prepare a
memorandum to the Committee exploring those issues.
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Federal Open Market Committee
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At this meeting, a staff presentation discussed three issues related to the existing statement that might warrant
elaboration or clarification: whether inflation persistently below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective and inflation similarly persistently above that objective would be regarded as equally undesirable,
whether additional information should be provided
about the “balanced approach” that the Committee
takes in promoting its two objectives under circumstances in which these objectives are judged not to be
complementary, and how financial stability is linked to
the Committee’s mandated goals of maximum employment and price stability. Following the staff presentation, participants discussed a range of topics related to
these three issues and to monetary policy communications more broadly. Participants generally thought that
it was worthwhile to periodically consider possible
changes to the statement, regardless of whether any were
ultimately implemented. Most participants agreed that
the existing consensus statement was working well as a
communications tool and judged that the threshold for
making changes to the document should be a high one.
On the specific issues, there was widespread agreement
that inflation moderately above the Committee’s 2 percent goal and inflation the same amount below that level
were equally costly—and many participants thought that
that view was largely shared by the public. One participant suggested that the Committee should clarify the
time horizon within which it seeks to achieve its inflation
objective. Participants believed that the language referring to the Committee’s balanced approach in promoting its objectives was appropriately broad and encompassed the views of participants. A number of participants noted that financial stability is a necessary condition for the achievement of the Committee’s longer-run
goals. A few of them offered suggestions for communicating more specifically how financial stability, and perhaps other asymmetric risks to the outlook, are taken
into account in the setting of monetary policy. However,
several other participants noted that reaching an agreement in the near term on clarifying the linkages between
monetary policy and financial stability could prove challenging, in part because the issues involved are complex
and need further study. Regarding broader communications issues, a number of participants suggested that the
subcommittee could again investigate the feasibility and
desirability of constructing a consensus forecast, building on the lessons of the experiments carried out in 2012,
and several thought that further enhancements to the
Summary of Economic Projections might also be worth
considering. No decisions were made at this meeting,
and participants generally agreed that it would be useful
to discuss these issues further at upcoming meetings.
It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee
would be held on Tuesday–Wednesday, December 16–
17, 2014. The meeting adjourned at 12:45 p.m. on
October 29, 2014.
Notation Vote
By notation vote completed on October 7, 2014, the
Committee unanimously approved the minutes of the
Committee meeting held on September 16–17, 2014.
_____________________________
William B. English
Secretary
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (2014, October 28). FOMC Minutes. Fomc Minutes, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/fomc_minutes_20141029
@misc{wtfs_fomc_minutes_20141029,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {FOMC Minutes},
year = {2014},
month = {Oct},
howpublished = {Fomc Minutes, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/fomc_minutes_20141029},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}