Greenbook/Tealbook
Prefatory Note
The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.
1
In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).
2
A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.
Content last modified 6/05/2009.
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
August 14,
1964.
SUPPLEMENTAL MOTES
The Domestic Economy Gross national product in the second quarter is now estimated at $618.6 billion, seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to revised Commerce estimates. August 18)
(Confidential until released Tuesday,
These estimates,shown in the following table, are virtually
the same as those of a month earlier.
The major difference is the
sizable increase in the figure for inventory accumulation. According to the Commerce preliminary estimate, corporate profits before tax in the second quarter were $57.4 billion, seasonally adjusted annual rate, $800 million higher than in the first quarter. On an income and product basis, total government receipts in the second quarter are estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $180.2 billion and total expenditures at $187.1 billion.
Thus,
the annual rate of government expenditures exceeded receipts by $6.9 billion; in the first quarter, receipts and expenditures were in balance. For the Federal Government alone expenditures in the second quarter exceeded receipts by $9.2 billion, as compared with $2.4 billion in the first quarter. effect of the tax cut.
The increase resulted from the full
State and local government expenditures were
less than receipts by an annual rate of $2.3 billion in the second quarter and by $2.4 billion in the first quarter.
-2-
CONFIDENTIAL until released 8/18/64
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Billions of dollars 1964
2nd Qtr.
1st Qtr.
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
618.6
608.8
Final sales
614.9
606.4
Personal Consumption Expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods
396.1 57.0 175.3
390.0 55.9 172.9
163.8
161.1
Services
Gross Private Domestic Investment Residential construction, nonfarm Other construction Producers' durable equipment Change in inventories Nonfarm
87.2 26.2 22.7 34.6 3.7 3.4
85.9 26.9 22.3 34.2 2.5 2.2
Net exports of Goods and Services Exports Imports
5.7 33.7 27.9
7.7 34.5 26.8
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
129.6
125.2
67.1
64.3
57.0 10.1
54.0 10.3
62.5
60.9
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT -- 1954 PRICES
513.5
508.0
PERSONAL INCOME Disposable personal income Saving/disposable income (per cent)
487.9 431.3 8.2
480.9 419.5 7.0
Federal Government
National defense Other, net of sales State and local government
Corporate Profits Before Tax
57.4p
56.6
GOVERNMENT SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) National Income Basis Federal State and local
-6 .9 p -9 .2p 2.3p
.0 -2.4 2.4
*--For earlier data see Table I - T-2 from FOMC notes for July 22, 1964.
Industrial production continued to rise in July, the eighth consecutive increase since November 1963.
At 132.7 per cent, the index
was 1 point above June and 5-1/2 per cent above a year earlier. Increases were shown by nearly all major groups of industries. Among final products, consumer goods output rose further in July and was also 5-1/2 per cent above a year ago. were widespread among consumer goods. expanded
The gains in output
Production of business equipment
further, reflecting increases in industrial and commercial
machinery, and was 9 per cant above a year earlier. Output of materials also rose in July with increases in iron and steel, construction materials, and most nondurable materials.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Seasonally Adjusted 1957-59=100 Per cent change from pJuly 1964
Total
Month ago I Year ago I Nov. 1963
132.7
+ .8
+ 5.6
+4.4
132.3 131.9
+ .5 +1.1
+ 5.3 + 6.7
+4.3 +4.8
129.3
- .1
+ 4.0
+4.2
Business equipment
140.5
+1.0
+ 9.1
+6.4
Materials
Consumer goods Home goods & apparel Staples
133.1
+1.1
+ 5.7
+6.0
Durables
132.2
+1.1
+ 6.2
+7.9
Nondurables
134.1
+ .8
+11.8
+9.5
Nonfarm payroll employment increased 140,000 in July, and May and June figures have been revised upward to show a rise of 250,000 for those two months (preliminary data had indicated a rise of only 165,000 from April to June).
At 58.9 million, seasonally adjusted,
nonfarm employment in July was 1.55 million above a year earlier.
As in earlier months, most of the July increase was outside the A 20,000 advance in manufacturing employment was
industrial sector.
in durable goods industries.
Primary metals increased 18,000, while
transportation equipment, employment declined 14,000 and was 30,000 In the nonindustrial sector, the increase was
below the April level.
concentrated in the service industry where employment rose by 56,000. Further gains were also recorded in trade and finance.
State and local
government employment declined somewhat following steady gains in earlier
months. The average workweek, seasonally adjusted, in manufacturing industries continued at 40.6 hours, unchanged from June and 0.2 hours longer than a year earlier.
Average hourly earnings were $2.53, or
at the level maintained since April, and 3.3 per cent higher than a year
earlier.
Average weekly earnings, at $103 were down less than
seasonally from the June high and were 3.8 per cent above a year earlier. Wholesale prices advanced 0.4 per cent in July, but remained below a year earlier.
Major price movements in July included a sub-
stantial rise in livestock and meat prices and significant increases in fuels and metals prices.
A variety of other industrial products
advanced moderately. WHOLESALE PRICES (1957-59=100) Per cent change from
July 1964 Total Farm products & foods Other commodities
June 1964 I July 1963
100.4
+0.4
-0.2
98.1 101.1
+1.0 +0.2
-1.7 +0.3
The Domestic Financial Situation Turnover of demand deposits at 343 centers outside New York increased to 35.5 (preliminary) in July from 35.0 in June.
Over the
past four months turnover has averaged 3.5 per cent above the first quarter of 1964 and 6.6 per cent above the April-July period last year. Turnover had begun to increase in April this year after having shown little net change since July 1963. Yields on corporate bonds--both new and outstanding--increased slightly last week. Adjusted to an Aaa basis, an August 12 utility issue was priced to yield 4.39, up 2 basis points from relevant July offerings.
Moody's Aaa series for outstanding bonds rose 1 basis
point to 4.42.
Stock prices recovered further from the drop associated
with the Vietnam crisis and are now only 2 per cent below their July peak,
International Developments The preliminary figures for the outflow of short-term capital in June have been revised downward because of the correction of a reporting error and the receipt of some additional information.
The corrected
total outflow of $223 million was about equally divided between bank credit and movements of liquid funds. Japanese trade figures for July show a further diminution of the trade deficit.
The deficit was about half as large as the peak
monthly average deficit of the first quarter; imports have shown little net change while exports have risen by nearly one-sixth.
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1964, August 17). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19640818_part3
@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19640818_part3,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
year = {1964},
month = {Aug},
howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19640818_part3},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}