Greenbook/Tealbook

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1

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

March 5, 1971

SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES The Domestic Economy Labor market.

The labor market eased in February, with

further reductions in employment and hours worked.

The labor force

declined even more sharply than employment and unemployment also declined.

The reduction in the labor force amounted to more than

500,000 and was widespread among age and sex groups.

The overall

unemployment rate, at 5.8 per cent, was off 0.2 percentage point from January. LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted in thousands)

1971

Total labor force Armed forces Civilian labor force Employment Unemployment

Jan.

Feb.

86,873

86,334

2,976 83,897 78,864 5,033

2,950 83,384 78,537 4,847

Change Feb. 1971 from: Feb. 1970 Jan. 1971 795 -391 1,186 -244 1,430

-539 - 26 -513 -327 -186

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (Seasonally adjusted, per cent)

1970 Dec.

Unemployment rates: Total Men aged 20-24 Men aged 25 and over Women aged 20 and over Teenagers

1971 Jan.

Feb.

6.2 10.9 3.7

6.0 10.4 3.5

5.8 9.7 3.4

5.8 17.8

5.7 17.6

5.6 16.7

Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 95,000 in February to 70.5 million.

Employment declines in the goods-producing industries,

totaling about 150,000 were partly offset by moderate increases in service-type industries, primarily State and local government.

After

increasing in December and January, manufacturing employment declined in February by 74,000 to 18.7 million; except for the period of the GM strike, this was the lowest level since early 1966.

The weakening

of labor demand in manufacturing has been wide-spread and since last August, prior to the auto strike, manufacturing employment has declined more than half a million. Although the largest cuts occurred in the durable goods sector, employment has declined since August in all but 2 of 21 manufacturing industries. NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted, in thousands)

Change

August 1970

February 1971

Total

70,414

70,514

100

Manufacturing

19,271

18,737

-534

11

,1 34

l0)6e3

-451

8,137

8,054

- 83

619 3,305 4,520 14,912 15,191 12,596

621 3,164 4,481 15,139 15,527 12,845

2 -141 -39 227 336 249

Durable goods

Nondurable goods Nonmanufacturing: Mining Construction Transportation Trade Services and finance Government

The average workweek was off 0.2 hours in February for rank-and-file workers on private nonfarm payrolls and 0.4 hours for Workweek declines were wide-

production workers in manufacturing.

spread, probably reflecting in part the effect of a holiday (Lincoln's birthday) during the survey week. Retail sales.

Retail sales in February on the basis of

four weeks data, have risen about 3/4 per cent from January.

Estimated

durable goods sales are 1/2 per cent and estimated nondurables goods are nearly 1 per cent.

Sales in the general merchandise category

were especially strong and rose nearly 2 per cent. RETAIL SALES (Per cent change from preceding period, seasonally adjusted)

All stores Durable Auto

Furniture & appliance Nondurable Food General merchandise GAF Total less auto, bldg. material, farm equipment, hardware

Feb. 1971 from 1970 QIV average

1970 Dec.

1971 Jan.

1971 Feb.

.8 2.7 5.4 -4.0 .0 1.5 -1.2

1.1 4.5 8.5 .2 - .3

.75 .4 1.4 .7 .9 .6 1.8

2.0 4.6 9.9 -1.7 .9 .7 3.5

1.3

1.5

-1.4

- .2

-

.8

2.0 .7

- .3

.8

The Domestic Financial Situation Bank credit.

Commercial bank credit, adjusted for transfers

of loans between banks and their affiliates (and also for System matched sale-purchase transactions temporarily outstanding at the end of February) is now estimated to have increased at a slightly lower rate during February than that indicated in the Greenbook -- 11.2 per cent compared with 12.3 per cent (III-5).

While total loans and loan

components are unchanged, total investments are estimated to be $400 million lower than originally shown. The net reduction in investment holdings also reflects some shift in composition.

Holdings of U. S. Treasury securities are now

estimated at a level $100 million above the Greenbook firgure -- or increasing at an annual rate of 24.7 per cent compared with 22.6 per cent.

On the other hand, holdings of municipal and Federal agency

issues are $500 million below the earlier figure -- or at an annual rate of 13.6 per cent compared with 20.4 per cent. Monetary aggregates.

Estimates of the growth in monetary

aggregates in February have been revised slightly from those published in the Greenbook.

The aggregates are now estimated to have expanded

at the following annual rates: M 1 (narrowly defined money supply) - 14 per cent M2 (M1 plus time and savings deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) - 21.8 per cent Adjusted bank credit proxy - 12.9 per cent

Commercial Bank Time and Savings Deposits - 28.0 per cent Large CD's - 11.3 per cent Other Time and Savings Deposits - 30.5 per cent Consumer credit.

Consumer instalment credit outstanding

rose $1.0 billion in January, seasonally adjusted annural rate. Moderate increases occurred in nonautomotive consumer goods credit and personal loans; auto credit contracted -rate --

for the fourth month in a row.

although at a reduced

On an overall basis, the rate

of increase in instalment credit was considerably larger than the $0.3 billion advance (annual rate) in December, but was far below the $4.6 billion increase in January 1970. Seasonally adjusted extensions of instalment credit moved up sharply in January and were only slightly below the peak months of early last summer. improvement in

The recovery in auto credit that accompanied the

sales was the primary factor in

the rise.

Repayments

rose to a new high.

CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT EXTENDED AND REPAID

(Seasonally adjusted annual rates, in billions of dollars)

Repaid

Net Change

102.2

98.2

4.0

QII QIII QIV

104.7 106.9 102.1

100.1 102.8 103.6

4.6 4.1 -1.5

January

107.0

105.9

Extended 1970:

1971:

QI

1.0

-6-

INTEREST RATES 1970 Highs

1971 Lows

Feb. 8

Mar. 4

Short-Term Rates Federal funds (weekly averages)

9.39 (2/18)

3-month Treasury bills (bid) 7.93 Bankers' acceptances 8.75 Euro-dollars 10.50 Federal agencies 8.30 Finance paper 8.25 CD's (prime NYC) Most often quoted new issue 6.75 Secondary market 9.25

(1/6) (1/13) (1/9) (1/9) (2/1)

4.82 (12/30) 4.09 (2/3)

4.74 5.25 6.50 4.81 5.38

(12/17) 3.82 (12/31) 4.12 (12/31) 5.89 (12/18) 3.90 (2/5) (12/10) 4.75

3.41 (3/3)

3.34 3.75 5.19 3.33 4.00

(10/30) 5.50 (11/25) 4.50 (2/3) (1/23) 5.38 (12/23) 4.60 (2/3)

4.00 3.90

(1/5) (1/8) (1/28)

4.78 (12/17) 3.85 e ! 5.50 (12/4) 4.25 402 5.63 (12/4) 4.62 5.12 (12/18) 4.22 (2/5)

3.44 3.88e ' 4.25 3.66

Most often quoted new issue 7.00 (10/7) Secondary market 9.38 (1/23)

5.50 (12/23) 4.50 (2/3) 5.50 (12/23) 4.75 (2/3)

4.00 3.70

4.74 (12/31) 3.90

3.63

5.60 (1/9)

5.50 (12/23) 4.50 (2/3) 2.95 (12/17) 2.45 (2/5)

4.38 2.35

8.30 (1/7) 7.73 (5/26)

5.85 (12/4) 5.69 6.15 (12/16) 6.08

5.26 6.20

8.60 (6/24) 9.47 (8/28)

7.47 (12/29) 7.08 8.57 (3/10) 8.44

7.14 8.40

9.30 (6/19)

7.68 (12/18) 6.91 (2/5)

7.79

Municipal Bond Buyer Index Moody's Aaa

7.12 (5/28) 6.95 (6/18)

5.33 (12/10) 5.27 (2/4) 5.15 (12/10) 5.10 (2/5)

5.37 5.15

Mortgage--implicit yield in FNMA biweekly auction 1/

9.36 (1/2)

8.36 (12/28)

7.43 (3/1)

6-month Treasury bills (bid) 7.99 Bankers' acceptances 8.88 Commercial paper (4-6 months) 9.13 Federal agencies 8.50

(1/13)

CD's (prime NYC)

1-year Treasury bills (bid) 7.62 (1/30) CD's (prime NYC) Most often quoted new issue 7.50 (9/16) Prime municipals

Intermediate and Long-Term Treasury coupon issues 5-years 20-years

Corporate Seasoned Aaa

Baa New Issue Aaa

1/

7.96 (1/25)

Yield on 6-month forward commitment after allowance for commitment fee and required purchase and holding of FNMA stock. Assumes discount on 30-year e--estimated loan amortized over 15 years,

International Developments To clarify the references on pages IV-9 and IV-13 to guilder-dollar swaps by the Netherlands Bank with Dutch commercial banks, it may be noted that these swaps, unlike those of the Bank of England, involve spot purchases of dollars by the central bank with forward sale.

The Netherlands Bank's swaps, which began last

October, have facilitated the use of dollar borrowing abroad by commercial banks to relieve a seasonally tight liquidity position in the Netherlands.

At the maturity of such a swap, the commercial

bank needs to acquire guilders to fulfill its contract.

Unless the

central bank decides to make a new swap, the financial market would be put under renewed strain.

Some swaps were in fact rolled over

in January, and in February new swaps were made as seasonal tightness due to tax payments persisted.

CORRECTIONS: Page II-30 Table, line 2, used cars, June to September should be minus 13.2, December 1970 to January 1971 should be minus 24.2. Page III-9, table for March 1 change 7.48 to 7.43. Page III-10, line 9 change 7.48 to 7.43. Page III-10, line 10 change December to November. Erratum: Page 111-17 line 3 erroneously stated the amount of System purchases of over 5-year coupon issues since the last meeting at $38 million. The correct number is $381 million. Appendix A, Page 1, paragraph 3 last line should include ... similar proportion expect a modest increase.

and a

SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX A:

BANK LENDING PRACTICES SURVEY*

The 125 banks participating in the February 15, 1971, Survey of Bank Lending Practices generally echoed the same responses reported in the previous survey. Ample fund availability in connection with sluggish loan demands induced banks to ease further their lending policies in nearly all areas. Loan Demand

About 65 per cent of the participants had experienced further slackening in loan demand and about a third foresaw little improvement over the next three months. Roughly 10 per cent of the respondents, however, had experienced an increase in loan requests and nearly a fifth predicted some future strengthening. Lending Terms and Conditions As would be expected, core than four-fifths of the panel reported a reduction in interest rates charged since the November

survey. However, about 15 per cent had not indicated altering their terms despite several general reductions in the prime rate during the three months covered by the survey. Banks also eased their compensating balance requirements and were more flexible in their maturity restraints on term loans. As in the previous survey, bank concern about credit quality has resulted in no relaxation of standards of credit worthiness. The net responses of banks in reviewing credit lines, shown in Table 2A, indicate a substantial easing in lending policies relative to the type of customer. New customers in particular were experiencing a much less restrictive atmosphere, and nonlocal customers were reported to be subject to considerably less screening than had been the case. The dramatic change in lending policies over the past two reports is demonstrated by the fact that therehas been no period since the initiation of the survey in 1964 in which banks reported this magnitude of easing in two consecutive surveys. Lending to Noncaptive Finance Companies Terms imposed on loans to financial institutions were not eased nearly as much as those on commercial and industrial loans. Only about half of the respondents reported any easing in interest rates and few banks (less than 10 per cent) had relaxed their enforcement of balance requirements. About 25 per cent of the respondents, however, were more willing to establish or enlarge existing credit lines which reflected a continuation of the pattern reported in November.

*Prepared by Marilyn Barron, Research Assistant, Banking Section,

Division of Research and Statistics.

-2Willingness to Make Other Types of Loans Due to the continued weakness in loan demands and increased fund availability, banks have become much more aggressive in seeking new loans. More than one-half are more inclined to extend term loans to businesses, although some banks report an interest in loans primarily of less than five years. Consumer installment loans continue to be quite attractive to most bankers as would be expected. Half of the respondents report continued interest in mortgage loans, especially

on single-family dwellings. Twenty-five to 30 per cent of the participants are more willing to make mortgage loans for multi-family or other types of structures. Variation by Size of Bank No significant differences were evident in the responses of banks with more than $1 billion in deposits compared with banks

with deposits of less than $1 billion.

But the smaller banks appeared

to be somewhat less aggressive in soliciting new loans and were a little more cautious in relaxing their lending policies. Supplemental responses to the survey underscored the qualityconsciousness prevalent at most banks and noted in previous surveys.

Some banks did volunteer comments, that despite their highly liquid positions, they have maintained a "wait and see" attitude and are

trying to keep most of their lending at the shorter end of the maturity spectrum.

NOT FOR QUOTATION

OR PUBLICATION

TABLE

I

PAGE 01

SURVEY OF CHANGES IN BAhK LENDING PRACTICES 1/ AT SELECTED LARGE BANKS IN THE U.S. (STATUS OF POLICY ON FEBRUARY 15, 1971 COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS EARLIER) (NUMBER OF BANKS & PERCENT OF TOTAL BANKS REPORTING) QUARTERLY

MUCH STRONGER

TOTAL BANKS

PCT

BANKS

PCT

MODERATELY STRONGER

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED

MODERATELY WEAKER

BANKS

PCT

BANKS

PCT

BANKS

9.6

31

24.8

72

57.6

62

49.6

39

31.2

PCT

MUCH WEAKER BANKS

PCT

STRENGTH OF DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS (AFTER ALLOWANCE FOR BANK'S USUAL SEASONAL VARIATION) COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS ANTICIPATED

DEMAND

AGO

IN NEXT 3 MONTHS

125

100.0

12

125

100.0

21 MUCH

ANSWERING QUESTION BANKS LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL TERMS

ANC

STANDARDS

OR SUPPORTING

BALANCES

OF CREDIT WORTHINESS OF TERM LOANS

CREDIT LINES OR

ESTABLISHED

CUSTOMERS

SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS

NONLOCAL

BANKS

PCT

MODERATELY EASIER POLICY

BANKS

BANKS

PCT

PCT

MUCH EASIER OOLICY BANKS

PCT

124

100.0

0

0.0

0

0.0

18

14.5

61

49.2

124

100.0

0

0.0

2

1.6

91

73.4

31

124

100.0

1

0.8

6

4.8

111

89.6

124

100.0

0

0.0

1

0.8

91

125

100.0

0

0.0

1

0.8

125

100.0

0

0.0

3

125

100.0

125

100.0

45

36.3

25.0

0

0.0

6

4.8

0

0.0

73.4

30

24.2

2

1.6

68

54.4

49

39.2

7

5.6

2.4

48

38.4

64

51.2

10

8.0

1

0.8

66

52.8

52

41.6

6

4.8

4

3.2

71

56.8

46

36.8

3

2.4

LOAN APPLICATIONS

NEW CUSTOMERS LOCAL

PCT

ESSENT IALLY UNCHANGED POLICY

CONDITIONS:

COMPENSATING

REVIEWING

BANKS

MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY

BUSINESSES

INTEREST RATES CHARGED

MATURITY

PCT

FIRMER POLICY

16.8

SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS

I/ SURVEY OF LENDING PRACTICES AT 125 LARGE AS OF FEBRUARY 15, 1971.

BANKS REPORTING IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE OUARTERLY

INTEREST R4TE SURVEY

NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

I

TABLE

(COhTINUED)

MODERATEL Y FIRMER

MUCH AN SWER ING QUESTION BANKS

PCT

FIRMER POL ICY BANKS

PAGE 02

PCLICY

PCT

BANKS

PCT

ESSENTIALLY UNC HANGED POLICY

MODERATELY EASIFR POLICY

BANKS

BANKS

PCT

PCT

MUCH EASIER POL I CY BANKS

PCT

FACTORS RELATING TO APPLICANT 2/ VALUE AS DEPOSITOR OR SOURCE OF COLLATERAL BUSINESS

124

100.0

94

75.9

23

18.5

1

0.8

INTENDED USE OF THE LOAN

125

100.0

89

71.2

31

24.8

2

1.6

INTEREST RATES CHARGED

124

100.0

0

0.0

O

0.0

57

45.9

41

33.1

26

21.0

COMPENSATING OR SUPPORTING BALANCES

124

100.0

0

0.0

1

0.8

117

94.4

6

4.8

0

0.0

ENFORCEMENT OF BALANCE REQUIREMENTS

124

100.0

5

4.0

109

87.9

10

8.1

0

0.0

ESTABLISHING NEW OR LARGER CREDIT LINES

124

100.0

1

0.8

70

56.5

49

39. 5

2

1.6

LENDING TO "NONCAPTIVE"

FINANCE COMPANIES

TERMS AND CONDITIONS;

ANSWERING QUESTION BANKS TYPES

WILLINGNESS TO MAKE OTHER

BANKS

PCT

MODERATELY LESS WILLING

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED

MODERATELY MORE WILL ING

BANKS

BA4KS

BANKS

PCT

PCT

PCT

CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING BANKS

PCT

OF LOANS

TO BUSINESSES

125

100.0

0

0.0

1

0.8

55

44.0

66

52.8

3

2.4

INSTALMENT LOANS

124

100.0

0

0.0

0

0.0

57

45.9

56

45.2

11

8.9

121

100.0

1

0.8

0

0.0

52

43.0

53

43.8

15

12.4

120

100.0

1

0.8

0

0.0

89

74.2

27

22.5

3

2.5

ALL OTHER MORTGAGE LOANS

122

100.0

1

0.8

0

0.0

82

67.2

35

28.7

4

3.3

LOANS WITH BANKS

125

100.0

1

0.8

O

0.0

74

59.2

47

37.6

3

2.4

122

100.0

0

0.0

O

0.0

88

72.1

31

25.4

3

2.5

TERP LOANS CONSUMER SINGLE

FAMILY MORTGAGE

MULTI-FAMILY

PARTICIPATION CORRESPONDENT LOANS TO

2/

PCT

CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING

MORTGAGE

BROKERS

LOANS LOANS

FOR THESE FACTORS, FIRMER MFANS THE FACTORS WERE CONSIDERED MORE CREDIT REQUESTS, AND EASIER MEANS THEY WERE LESS IMPORTANT.

IMPORTANT

IN MAKING DECISIONS FOR APPROVING

NOT FOR QUOTATION

OR PUBLICATION

COMPARISON

TABLE

2

PAGE 03

OF QUARTERLY CHANGES IN BANK LENDING PRACTICES AT BANKS GROUPED BY SIZE OF TOTAL (STATUS OF POLICY ON FEBRUARY 15, 1971, COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS EARLIER) (NUMBER OF BANKS IN EACH COLUMN AS PER CENT OF TOTAL BANKS ANSWERING QUESTION)

SIZE

OF BANK

MUCH TOTAL t$ & OVER

UNDER

$1

STRONGER $1 & OVER

UNDER $1

--

TOTL CEPDSITS

DEPOSITS

1/

IN BILLIONS

MODERAT EL Y STRONGER

ESSENTIALLY Ut CHAN GED

MODERATELY WEAKER

S1 & UNDER OVER Sl

$1 E OVER

$1 & OVER

MODERATELY FIRMER

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED

MODERATELY WEAKER

$1 & OVER

$1 C OVER

UNDER SI

UNDER $1

MUCH WEAKER $1 C OVER

UNDER 1I

STRENGTH OF OENANO FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS (AFTER ALLOWANCE FOR BANK'S USUAL SEASONAL VARIATION) COMPARED

TO THREE MONTHS

ANTICIPATED DEMAND

AGO

IN NEXT 3 MONTHS

100

100

100

100

TOTAL

$1 & OVER

UNDER $1

MUCH FIRMER

$1 C UNDER OVER $1

$1 & OVER

UNDER $1

UNDER S1

UNDER $S

MUCH WEAKER $1 & OVER

UNDER $1

LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES TERMS ANC CONDITIONS: 100

100

0

0

17

100

100

2

1

76

STANDARDS OF CREDIT WORTHINESS

100

100

MATURITY OF TERN LOANS

100

100

ESTABLISHED CUSTOMERS

100

NEW

INTEREST RATES CHARGED COMPENSATING OR SUPPORTING

BALANCES

38

35

0

0

100

6

6

100

100

9

7

100

100

7

3

100

100

4

1

REVIEWING CREDIT LINES OR LOAN APPLICATIONS

CUSTOMERS

LOCAL

SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS

NONLOCAL

1/

SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS

60

39

71 SMALL BANKS (DEPOSITS AND 54 LARGE BANKS (DEPOSITS OF $1 BILLION OR MORE) SURVEY OF LENDING PRACTICES AT FEBRUARY 15, 1971. $1 BILLIONI REPORTING IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE QUARTERLY INTEREST RATE SURVEY AS OF

35

OF

LESS THAN

NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

TABLE 2

(COMTINUED)

OF BANK MUCH FIRMER POLICY

SIZE NUMBER ANSWERING QUESTION $1 & OVER FACTORS

RELATING TO APPLICANT

UNDER $1

UNDER $1

-TOTAL DEPOSITS IN BILLIONS MODERATELY ESSENTIALLY MOOERATELY FIRMER EASIER UNCHAN GED PCLICY POLICY POLICY $1 & OVER

UNDER $

$1 6 OVER

UNDER $1

100

100

INTENDED

100

100

100

100

43

48

100

100

92

96

100

100

84

91

100

100

45

66

TERMS

USE OF THE

LOAN

TO "NONCAPTIVE"

$1 & OVER

UNDER $1

MUCH FASIFR POLICY $1 E OVER

UNDER Sl

2/

VALUE AS DEPOSITOR OR SOURCE OF COLLATERAL BUSINESS

LENDING

FINANCE

COMPANIES

AND CONDITIONS:

INTEREST RATES CHARGED COMPENSATING ENFORCEMENT

OR

SUPPORTING

BALANCES

OF BALANCE REQUIREMENTS

ESTABLISHING NEW OR LARGER CREDIT LINES

NUMBER ANSWERING QUESTION $1 & OVER WILLINGNESS

TO MAKE OTHER TYPES

CONSUMER

UNDER $1

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED

t$1 OVER

St & OVER

UNDER $1

100

0

0

100

100

0

100

100

MORTGAGE LOANS

100

LOANS WITH BANKS

INSTALMENT

LOANS

PARTICIPATION CORRESPONDBIT

BROKERS

LOANS

UNDER $1

23

MODERATELY MORE WILLING $1 & OVER

UNDER SI

20

CONSIDERABLY MORE WILL ING $1 E OVFR

UNDER $1

OF LOANS 46

MULTI-FAMILY MORTGAGE

LOANS TO

$1 G OVER

MODERATELY LESS WILLING

1

SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS

ALL OTHER

UNDER $1

CONSIDERABLY LESS MILLI NG

0

TERM LOANS TO BUSINESSES

2/

Sl & OVER

PAGE 04

50

55

47

42

48

0

45

41

46

0

0

71

29

17

100

0

0

60

40

20

100

100

0

0

100

100

0

0

100

100

100

0

FOR THESE FACTORS, FIRMER MEANS THE FACTORS MERE CONSIDERED MORE IMPORTANT CREDIT REOUESTS, AND EASIER MEANS THEY MERE LESS IMPORTANT.

IN MAKING

4

1

59

0

4

57

4

1

DECISIONS

43

FOR

APPROVING

TABLE 2A NET RESPONSES OF BANKS IN LENDING PRACTICES SURVEYS (In per cent)

Nov. Feb. 1970 1971

Feb. 1969

May 1969

Aug. 1969

Nov. 1969

Feb. 1970

May 1970

Aug. 1970

54.4

60.0

30.6

28.0

-1.6

12.1

16.0 -56.8 -54.4

49.2

41.8

5.7

8.9

-8.0

11.2

13.6 -32.0

86.2 64.3 32.8 30.3

91.0 75.6 41.4 42.3

78.3 68.3 40.6 42.2

49.6 57.6 36.0 35.2

34.4 38.4 22.4 17.6

-12.8 18.4 20.8 10.4

15.2 -73.6 -85.5 24.8 -0.8 -23.4 22.4 4.8 0.8 14.4 -7.2 -25.0

32.5 47.2 61.7 j80.2 30.9 46.7 49.5 71.3

51.6 81.4 48.8 68.8

36.8 60.8 32.0 56.5

18.4 34.4 14.4 31.4

5.6 17.6 5.6 22.6

1.6 6.4 -3.2 16.1

58.6 54.5

67.2 71.6

65.0 68.5

46.0 39.2

29.9 21.6

18.5 12.0

18.5 9.6

53.3 22.9 29.5 54.9

50.8 27.9 42.6 62.4

48.0 35.0 42.3 62.0

19.3 26.7 34.7 48.4

14.5 21.7 30.7 32.2

-16.0 6.4 16.0 21.6

9.7 -41.6 -54.1 1.6 - 4.C 12.1 6.4 - 4.1 23.4 22.6 -10.4 -38.7

Term loans to businesses Consumer instalment loans Single-family mortgage loans Multi-family mortgage loans

48.8 4.2 30.8 40.1

64.3 17.2 45.5 57.5

65.9 26.9 49.7 58.3

48.0 24.2 30.4 36.3

21.6 17.7 19.7 21.8

All other mortgage loans

42.5

62.0

62.5

42.3

22.2

9.9

18.7 34.2

38.4 40.0

48.4 59.3

31.5 36.1

10.6 20.5

5.6 20.3

Strength of loan demand-

/

(compared to 3 months ago) Anticipated demand in next 3 months

-13.6

LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES2Terms and Conditions Interest rates charged Compensating or supporting balances Standards of credit worthiness Maturity of term loans Reviewing Credit Lines Established customers New customers Local service area customers Nonlocal service area customers

-32.0 -40.8 -33.6 -16.8

-44.0 -56.8 -45.8 -35.2

Factors Relating to Applicant (Net percentage indicating

more important) Value of depositor as source of

business Intended use of loan LENDING TO NONCAPTIVE FINANCE COMPANIES-

--14.5 -9.6 -24.0

/

Terms and Conditions Interest rates charged Compensating or supporting balances Enforcement of balance requirements Establishing new or larger credit lines

WILLINGNESS TO MAKE OTHER LOANS 3 / 8.8 -28.8 12.8 -24.2 -4.1 --8.2 -11.6 -25.6 --12.4 3.4

-54.4 -54.1 -55.L -24.2

5.0 -15.4 -31.2

Participation loans with correspondent banks Loans to brokers

-2.4 10.61

-9.6 -39.: -0.9 -27.!

1/ Per cent of banks reporting stronger loan demand minus per cent of banks reporting weaker loan demand. Positive number indicates net stronger loan demand, negative number indicates net weaker loan demand. 2/ Per cent of banks reporting firmer lending policies minus per cent of banks reporting weaker lending policies. Positive number indicates net firmer lending policies, negative indicates net easier lending policies. 3/ Per cent of banks reporting less willingness to make loans minus per cent of banks more willing to make loans. Positive number indicates less willingness, negative number indicates more willingness.