greenbooks · March 19, 1973

Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

March 16,

By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

1973

SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES The Domestic Economy

Seasonally adjusted private housing starts declined slightly in February to an annual rate of 2.44 million units from an upward revised rate of 2.50 million in January.

Northeast showed a rise in February.

Regionally, only the

Building permits declined further

in February but continued at a high level.

The average rate of starts

in January and February was above the 2.40 million annual rate in the fourth quarter but March starts are likely to be down.

If so, the

average for the first quarter may be close to that in the fourth quarter.

PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS AND PERMITS February 1973

(Thousands of Units) 1/

Percent change from: January 1973 February 1972

Starts 2/

2,444

- 2

- 4

1-family 2- or more-family

1,361 1,083

- 6 + 3

+ 6 -14

355

+ 3

+32

North Central South West

578 1,080 431

- 5 - 1 - 5

+11 - 8 -26

Permits

2,155

- 3

+ 5

Northeast

1-family 1,069 + 1 +11 2- or more-family 1,086 - 6 - 1 1/ Seasonally adjusted annual rates; preliminary. 2/ Apart from starts, mobile home shipments for domestic use in January--the latest month for which data are available--were at a record seasonally adjusted annual rate of 677 thousand units--up 21 percent from December, and 22 percent above a year earlier.

-2New homes sold by merchant builders in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 735,000.

This was little

changed

from the advanced December rate and only moderately below the record pace reached in last year's fourth quarter.

Also, with buyers con-

centrating on the larger and better equipped units, the January rate was accompanied by a further rise in the median price of new homes sold--to $30,400 or nearly $2,000 more than the median price of unsold units still in builders' inventories.

At the same time, however, such

inventories continued upward and equaled nearly 7 months' supply at the January rate of sales--a new high for the series which began in 1963. NEW SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD AND FOR SALE Median price of

Homes Sold 1/

Homes

682

284

25.5

25.9

QIII

717

386

27.9

27.1

QIV (r)

760

404

29.0

28.3

October (r) November (r) December (r)

831 711 737

394 401 404

28.9 28.9 29.7

27.6 27.8 28.3

420

30.4

28.5

for Sale 2/ (Thousands of units)

Homes for Sale Homes Sold (Thousands of dollars)

1971 QIV

1972

1973 January (p) 735 1/ SAAR. 2/ SA, end of period. p - Preliminary r - Revised.

- 3 -

Agriculture.

Intended 1973 crop plantings are generally

higher than 1972 plantings and are at about the levels for which USDA had hoped.

Expected spring wheat and soybean plantings are on target.

Corn planting intentions--7 percent higher than last year's acreage-fall about 2 percent short of the 1973 feed-grain program target.

PROSPECTIVE CROP PLANTINGS FOR 1973 IN 35 STATES, SURVEYED (Million acres)

Target a Crop1973 72.7

Corn

All Feed Grain

Indicatedb 1973

1973 as percent of 1972

71.6

107.2

121.7

105.6

Spring Wheat

15.9

15.3

120.5

All Wheat c

58.7

58.2

10 6

Soybeans

53.5

53.8

114.5

13.1

93.4

Cotton

.0 d

aNational target adjusted downward to show acreage targets for 35 states. bFarmers intentions as of March 1, 1973. C

SIncludes winter wheat already planted. Since a greater proportion of the 1973 wheat crop will probably be harvested as grain, production of grain should be about 12 percent above 1972.

CORRECTION:

Page III-20.

In line 3 insert "at an annual rate of" before

"about 4-1/2 percent."

- 4 The Domestic Financial Situation.

Corporate profits. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has released preliminary estimates of corporate earnings for the final quarter of 1972.

Total

corporate book profits in the fourth quarter grew by over $6 billion, a 23 percent increase over a year ago.

Almost three quarters of this

increase is accounted for by the earnings of domestic nonfinancial corporations, which are 28 percent larger than a year ago.

If book

profits are adjusted to eliminate inventory profits, both of these rates of increase are about two percentage points less.

An additional

$1 billion represents the increased earnings of financial institutions, while profits originating in the rest of the world rose by about $.4 billion, a decline of 7 percent from the final quarter of 1971 when a substantial repatriation of foreign exchange earnings occurred. Preliminary fourth quarter data from the Federal Trade Commission indicate that there was substantial growth in the profits of durable goods industries, particularly in the primary metals and motor vehicles sectors.

For durables, as well as for manufacturing as

a whole, increases in profit margins contributed more to this growth in earnings than did the increase in sales.

The opposite was true in

the case of many nondurable goods industries, but major exceptions were petroleum and a group which includes textiles, leather and apparel among other industries.

-5

While there has been a modest increase in the effective tax rate since the final quarter of 1971, the tax rate for 1972 as a whole is

less than that for 1971.

For 1972 tax payments and profits reflect

greater allowances for depreciation under the ADR, and tax payments reflect the investment tax credit as well as tax offsets carried forward from previous years' write-offs and losses.

Dividends are

virtually unchanged from the third quarter; normally far less volatile than profits, they have also been prevented from increasing as rapidly as they might otherwise have by the control program of the Committee on Interest and Dividends.

Thus with both undistributed profits and

depreciation allowances increasing, cash flow was 17 percent larger than it was in the final quarter of 1971, the same rate of increase as that for the year as a whole.

CORPORATE PROFITS:

PRELIMINARY FOURTH QUARTER

All Corporations 1/ 1972-IV $Billion SAAR Profits before tax and inventory valuation adjustment

Domestic Nonfinancial Corporations

Percentage change from 1971-IV 1972- I I I

1972-IV $Billion SAAR

Percentage change from 1971-IV 1972-III

95.9

20.8

7.0

70.0

25.9

7.4

101.9

22.5

6.5

75.9

27.8

6.5

Profits tax liability

44.5

26.1

6.5

35.8

30.7

6.9

Profits after tax

54.7

19.6

6.5

40.1

25.3

6.1

Dividends

26.7

6.0

0.8

20.2

8.6

0.0

Undistributed profits

30.7

35,2

12.5

19.9

47.4

13.7

100.2

16.9

4.8

86.4

16.9

4.1

43.7

3.1

0.0

47.2

2.4

0.4

Profits before tax

Cash flow 2/ Effective tax rate (per cent) 3/

Payout rate (percent) 4/ 46.5 -11.4 -5.5 50.4 1/ Includes both foreign and domestic profits. 2/ Capital consumption allowances plus undistributed profits. 3/ Profits tax liability/Profits before tax. 4/ Dividends/Profits after tax.

-13.3

-5.6

CORPORATE PROFITS:

PRELIMINARY YEAR TOTALS

All Corporations 1/ Percent Year change from 1972 year 1971 $Billion

Domestic Nonfinancial Percent Year change from 1972 year 1971 Billion

Profits before tax and inventory valuation adjustment

88.3

12.3

64.5

15.0

Profits before tax

94.3

13.2

70.5

16.0

Profits tax liability

41.3

10.7

33.1

12.6

Profits after tax

53.1

15.7

37.4

19.5

Dividends

26.4

3.9

20.2

3.6

Undistributed profits

26.7

30.2

17.1

43.7

Cash flow 2/

94.4

16.8

82.0

17.5

Effective tax rate (percent) 3/

43.8

-2.2

47.0

-2.9

-10.1

54.0

-13.1

49.7 Payout rate (percent) 4/ 1/ Includes both foreign and domestic profits. Capital consumption allowances plus undistributed profits. 2/ Profits tax liability/Profits before tax. 3/ Dividends/Profits after tax. 4/

-8-

INTEREST RATES

1973

1972 Highs

Lows

Feb. 9

Mar.

Short-Term Rates Federal funds (wkly. avg.)

5.38 (12/20)

3-month Treasury bills (bid) Comm. paper (90-119 day) Banker's acceptances Euro-dollars CD's (prime NYC) Most often quoted new

5.19 5.63 5.63 6.31

(12/19) (12/29) (12/29) (12/5)

3.18 (3/1)

2.99 3.75 3.75 4.62

(2/11) (2/29) (2/23) (3/8)

6.21 (2/7)

7.13 (3/14)

5.44 6.13 6.50 7.38

6.11 6.75 6.25 8.31

5.50 (12/27)

3.50 (2/23)

6.25 (2/7)

6.75

5.39 (12/29) 5.63 (12/29) 5.64 (12/29)

3.35 (1/10) 3.88 (3/3) 3.79 (2/17)

5.68 6.13 6.08

6.64 6.88

5.63 (12/27)

3.88 (2/23)

6.38 (2/7)

7.00 (3/14)

5.55 (9/22)

5.86 (12/26)

3.57 (1/8) 4.32 (1/17)

5.77 6.34

6.60 7.04

5.75 (12/27) 3.20 (12/27)

4.62 (1/19) 2.35 (1/12)

6.38 (2/7) 3.40 (2/8)

7.00 (3/14) 4.05

Treasury coupon issues 5-years 20-years

6.32 (9/14) 6.22 (4/14)

5.47 (1/13) 5.71 (11/15)

6.51 6.87

6.85 6.93

Corporate Seasoned Aaa Baa

7.37 (4/24) 8.29 (1/3)

7.05 (12/7) 7.89 (12/29)

7.24 7.97

7.29 8.02

7.60 (4/21)

7.08 (3/10)

7.46 (2/7)

7.52

Municipal Bond Buyer Index

5.54 (4/13)

4.99 (1/13)

5.16 (2/7)

5.34

Mortgage--implicit yield in FNMA auction 1/

7.72 (10/16)

7.54 (3/20)

7.71 (2/5)

7.75 (3/5)

6-month Treasury bills (bid) Comm. paper (4-6 mo.) Federal agencies CD's (prime NYC) Most often quoted new 1-year Treasury bills (bid) Federal agencies CD's (prime NYC) Most often quoted new Prime municipals

(3/14)

6.82

Intermediate and Long-term

New Issue Aaa Utility

1/ Yield on short-term forward commitment after allowance for commitment fee and required purchase and holding of FNMA stock. Assumes discount on 30year loan amortized over 15 years. 2/ This rate now reflects the yield on the Treasury's new 20-year, 6-3/4 per cent bond that was auctioned on January 4.

APPENDIX A:

SURVEY OF CHANGES IN BANK LENDING PRACTICES*

An increase in the strength of demands for commercial and industrial loans was reported in the three months ending February 15 by two-thirds of the banks participating in the Quarterly Survey of Changes in Bank Lending Practices. An even greater percentage of the banks, moreover, were anticipating a continuation of stronger demand over the next three months. (Table 1) As might be expected, an across the board tightening of credit policies accompanied the growth in loan demand, A majority of the banks indicated a firmer policy regarding interest rates, accompanied, in many cases, by increases in compensating balance requirements. Standards of credit worthiness had become more stringent, and policies regarding maturities on term loans tightened appreciably. All customers came under increased scrutiny in reviewing loan applications and credit lines, though new and nonlocal service area customers received the greatest attention in executing tighter policies. The value of applicants as depositors or as a source of collateral business also received significantly greater emphasis. At the same time, there was a reduction in willingness to make term loans, reversing a persistent movement toward easing in term lending recorded in prior Surveys. Looking at the current results more closely, nearly 70 per cent of the banks had firmer interest rate policies, while about 40 per cent of the banks had given greater weight to compensating or supporting balances. Several banks indicated in supplementary responses that because of a relatively low prime rate they were giving extra consideration to the credit worthiness of accounts and monitoring more closely new commitments made at the prime. About 40 per cent of the respondents showed firmer policies regarding new and nonlocal service area customers, and nearly 48 per cent gave more emphasis to the value of applicants as depositors or as sources of collateral business. In contrast to the previous quarter when almost one-fifth of the banks were more willing to make term loans to nonfinancial business, term lending was restricted at over one-fifth of the reporting banks. More of this tightening in term loans had occurred at banks with deposits under $1 billion. (Table 2) Thirty per cent of the banks under $1 billion were moderately less willing to make term loans, in contrast to thirteen per cent of the larger banks.

* Prepared by Richard Puckett, Senior Economist, and Virginia Lewis, Research Assistant, Banking Section, Division of Research and Statistics.

A-2 There were other notable divergences between larger and smaller banks. For example, banks under $1 billion were somewhat more restrictive regarding standards of credit worthiness. They more heavily emphasized the value of loan applicants as depositors and were somewhat Nonetheless, 70 per more restrictive in lending to finance companies. cent of the smaller banks judged loan demands to be stronger versus 80 per cent of the larger -- perhaps reflecting switching from the commercial paper market by the larger banks' customers. In any case, more bigger banks anticipated heavier loan demands in the next three months -- 91 per cent as opposed to 83 per cent of their smaller counterparts. As for geographical variations, strengthening of loan demands as well as tightening in terms and conditions of lending seemed to be widespread. However, the New York District was firmer than average,

while Chicago was somewhat easier. (Table 3)

A-3 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

TABLE 1

QUARTERLY SURVEY OF CHANGES IN BANK LENDING PRACTICES AT SELECTED LARGE BANKS IN THE U.S. 1/ (STATUS OF POLICY ON FEBRUARY 15, 1973 COMPARED TOTHREE MONTHS EARLIER) (NUMBER OF RANKS & PERCENT OF TOTAL BANKS REPORTING) MUCH STRONGER

TOTAL

BANKS

PCT

BANKS

PCT

MOOERATELY STRONGER

FSSENTIALLY UNCHANGED

MODERATFLY WFAKER

BANKS

RANKS

BANKS

PCT

STRENGTH OF DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS (AFTER ALLOWANCE FOR BANK'S USUAL SEASONAL VARIATION)

PCT

MUCH WEAKFR BANKS

PC'

COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS AGO

125

100.0

12.8

65,6

20.8

0.8

0.0

ANTICIPATED DEMAND IN NEXT 3 MONTHS

125

100.0

10.4

76,0

13.6

0.0

ANSWERING QUESTION BANKS

PCT

MUCH FIRMER POLICY BANKS

PCT

MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY

FSSENTIALLY UNCHANGEO POLICY

MODERATELY EASTER DOLICY

BANKS

RANKS

BANKS

PCT

LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES

MICH (aSIE POLICY RANKS

PCT

TERMS AND CONDITIONS: INTEREST

RATES CHARGED

125

100.0

COMPENSATING OR SUPPORTING BALANCES

125

100.0

STANDARDS OF CREDIT WORTHINESS

125

MATURITY OF TERM LOANS

10.4

6B,8

20.8

606 5.6

40.0

%3.6

100.0

4.8

20.0

75.2

125

100.0

0.8

18.4

76.8

ESTABLISHED CUSTOMERS

125

100.0

0.8

15.2

104

83.?

0.0

NEW CUSTOMERS

125

100.0

7.2

35.2

56.0

0.0

LOCAL SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS

125

100.0

0.8

13.6

104

83.2

0,0

NONLOCAL SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS

125

100.0

T,2

32.8

58.4

0.0

REVIEWING CREDIT LINES OR LOAN APPLICATIONS

I/ SURVEY OF LENDING PRACTICES AT 125 LARGE BANKS REPORTING IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE QUARTERLY AS OF FEBRUARY 15. 1973.

INTEREST RATE

SURVFY

NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

TABLE 1 (CONTINUED)

ANSWERING QUESTION BANKS

PCT

MUCH FIRMER POLICY BANKS

PCT

MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY

MODERATELY EASIER POLICY

BANKS

PCT

MUCH EASIER POLICY BANKS

PCT

FACTORS RELATING TO APPLICANT 2/ VALUE AS DEPOSITOR OR SOURCE OF COLLATERAL BUSINESS

124

100,0

40.3

52.4

INTENDED USE OF THE LOAN

123

100.0

15.4

101

82.2

INTEREST RATES CHARGED

100,0

33.f

64.0

COMPENSATING OR SUPPORTING BALANCES

100,0

20.0

78.4

ENFORCEMENT OF BALANCE REQUIREMENTS

100.0

21.6

74.4

ESTABLISHING NEW OR LARGER CREDIT LINES

100,0

28.8

62.4

LENDING TO "NONCAPTIVE" FINANCE COMPANIES TERMS AND CONDITIONS:

ANSWERING QUESTION BANKS

PCT

CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING BANKS

MODERATELY LESS WILLING

PCT

BANKS

PCT

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED RANKS

PCT

MODERATELY MORE WILLING PCT

BANKS

WILLINGNESS TO MAKE OTHER TYPES OF LOANS TERM LOANS TO BUSINESSES

125

100.0

0.0

22.4

72.0

5.6

CONSUMER INSTALMENT LOANS

124

100.0

0.0

2.4

108

87.1

8.9

SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS

123

100.0

1.6

7,3

80.5

10.6

MULTI-FAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS

122

100.0

1.6

9.8

103

84.5

4.1

ALL OTHER MORTGAGE LOANS

123

100,0

1.6

9.8

78.8

9.8

PARTICIPATION LOANS WITH CORRESPONDENT BANKS

124

100.0

10.5

106

85.5

LOANS TO BROKERS

123

100.0

11.4

2/ FOR THESE FACTORS* FIRMER MEANS THE FACTORS WERE CONSIDERED MORE IMPORTANT CREDIT REQUESTS* AND EASIER MEANS THEY WERE LESS IMPORTANT.

O8.5

IN MAKING DECISIONS FOR APPROVING

CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING BANKS

PCT

A-5 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

TABLE 2

COMPARISON OF QUARTERLY CHANGES IN BANK LENDING PRACTICES AT BANKS GROUPED BY SIZE OF TOTAL DEPOSITS FEBRUARY 15, 1973. COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS EARLIER) (STATUS OF POLICY ON (NUMBER OF BANKS IN EACH COLUMN AS PER CENT OF TOTAL BANKS ANSWERING QUESTION)

SIZE TOTAL S1 & OVER

UNDER Sl

OF BANK

MUCH STRONGER Sl & OVER

UNDER $1

TOTAL DEPOSITS

IN RILLIONS

MODERATELY STRONGER

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED

MODERATELY WEAKER

S1 & OVER

Sl L OVER

UNDER Si

UNDER $1

UNDER 51

MUCH WEAKER Sl1 OVER

UNDER

STRENGTH OF DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS (AFTER ALLOWANCE FOR BANK'S USUAL SEASONAL VARIATION) COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS AGO

ANTICIPATED DEMAND IN NEXT 3 MONTHS

TOTAL Sl & OVER

UNDER Sl

MUCH FIRMER 1S & OVER

UNDER S1

MODERATELY FIRMER

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED

MODERATELY EASIER

Sl & OVER

$1 & OVER

S1 & OVER

UNDER Sl

UNDER S1

UNDER $1

MUCH EASIER Sl & OVER

LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES TERMS AND CONDITIONS! INTEREST RATES CHARGED

100

COMPENSATING OR SUPPORTING BALANCES

100

STANDARDS OF CREDIT WORTHINESS

100

MATURITY OF TERM LOANS

100

ESTABLISHED CUSTOMERS

100

NEW CUSTOMERS

100

LOCAL SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS

100

NONLOCAL SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS

100

REVIEWING CREDIT LINES OR LOAN APPLICATIONS

1/ SURVEY OF LENDING PRACTICES AT 54 LARGE BANKS (DEPOSITS OF $1 BILLION OR MORE) AND 71 SMALL BANKS (DEPOSITS OF LESS THAN Si BILLION) REPORTING IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE QUARTERLY INTEREST RATE SURVEY AS OF FEBRUARY 15 1973.

UNDER $1

A-6

NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

TABLE 2

(CONTINUED)

SIZE NUMBER ANSWERING QUESTION $1 & OVER

UNDER $1

OF BANK MUCH FIRMER POLICY

$1 & OVER

UNDER $1

TOTAL DEPOSITS IN BILLIONS

MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY

S1 & OVER

$1 OVER

UNDER $1

FACTORS RELATING TO APPLICANT 2/ VALUE AS DEPOSITOR OR SOURCE OF COLLATERAL BUSINESS

100

INTENDED USE OF THE LOAN

100

INTEREST RATES CHARGED

100

COMPENSATING OR SUPPORTING BALANCES

100

ENFORCEMENT OF

100

UNDER $1

MODERATELY EASIER POLICY $1 & OVER

UNDER $1

MUCH EASIER POLICY SI & OVER

UNOER 51

LENDING TO "NONCAPTIVE" FINANCE COMPANIES TERMS AND

CONDITIONS:

BALANCE REQUIREMENTS

ESTABLISHING NEW OR LARGER CREDIT LINES

NUMBER ANSWERING QUESTION $1 & OVER

UNDER $1

CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING $1 & OVER

UNDER $1

MODERATELY LESS WILLING $1 & OVER

UNDER $1

ESSENTTALLY UNCHANGED Sl & OVER

UNDEH Sl

MODERATELY MORE WILLING Sl &

UNDER

OVER

S1 & OVER

WILLINGNESS TO MAKE OTHER TYPES OF LOANS TERM LOANS TO BUSINESSES

100

CONSUMER

100

SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS

100

as 85

a7R9

MULTI-FAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS

100

ALL OTHER MORTGAGE LOANS

100

PARTICIPATION LOANS WITH CORRESPONDENT BANKS

100

LOANS

100

INSTALMENT LOANS

TO BROKERS

2/ FOR THESE FACTORS, FIRMER MEANS THE FACTORS WERE CONSIDERED MORE IMPORTANT CREDIT REQUESTS9 AND EASIER MEANS THEY WERE LESS IMPORTANT.

CONSInfRARLY MORF WILLING

IN MAKING DFCISIONS FOP APPROVING

UNnER $1

NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

TABLE 3

QUARTERLY SURVEY OF CHANGES IN BANK LENDING PRACTICES AT SELECTED LARGE BANKS IN THE U.S. 1/ STATUS OF POLICY ON FEBRUARY 15, 1973 COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS EARLIER (NUMBER OF BANKS)

ALL DSTS

BOSNEW YORK TON TOTAL CITY OUTSIDE

PHILADEL.

CLEVE- RICHLAND MOND

ATLAN- CHICST. TA AGO LOUIS

MINNE- KANS. APOLIS CITY

STRENGTH OF DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS (AFTER ALLOWANCE FOR BANK'S USUAL SEASONAL VARIATION) COMPARED TO 3 MONTHS AGO MUCH STRONGER MODERATELY STRONGER ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY WEAKER MUCH WEAKER ANTICIPATED DEMAND NEXT THREE MONTHS MUCH STRONGER MODERATELY STRONGER ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY WEAKER MUCH WEAKER

125 16 82 26 1 0 125 13 95 17 0 0

LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES TERMS AND CONDITIONS INTEREST RATES CHARGED MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY COMPENSATING BALANCES MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY

125 13 86 26 0 0 125 7 50 67 1 0

1/ SURVEY OF LENDING PRACTICES AT 125 LARGE BANKS REPORTING IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE QUARTERLY INTEREST RATE SURVEY AS OF FEBRUARY 15 1973.

DALLAS

SAN FRAN

A-8 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

TABLE 3

ALL DSTS

BOSNEW YORK TON TOTAL CITY OUTSIDE

(CONTINUED)

PHILADEL.

CLEVE- RICHLAND MONO

ATLAN- CHICST. TA ASO LOUIS

LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES

MINNE- KANS. APOLIS CITY

DAL" LAS

SAN FRAN

TERMS AND CONDITIONS STANDARDS OF CREDIT WORTHINESS MUCH FIRMEN POLICY MODERATLLY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY MATURITY OF TERM LOANS MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY

125 6 25 94 0 0

0 4 4 0 0

1 6 13 0 0

0 2 7 0 0

1 4 6 0 0

1 1 4 0 0

0 3 8 0 0

0 0 12 0 0

2 2 6 0 0

1 2 12 0 0

0 1 8 0 0

0 0 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

0 2 7 0 0

0 1 12 0 0

0 3 5 0 0

0 10 10 0 0

0 5 4 0 0

0 5 6 0 0

0 2 4 0 0

0 0 11 0 0

0 1 11 0 0

1 2 7 0 0

0 0 15 0 0

0 1 7 1 0

0 1 2 0 0

0 1 7 1 0

0 2 6 1 0

0 0 11 2 0

0 2 6 0 0

0 4 16 0 0

0 2 7 0 0

0 2 9 0 0

1 2 3 0 0

0 1 10 0 0

0 0 12 0 0

0 3 7 0 0

0 o 15 0 0

0 2 7 0 0

0 1 2 0 0

0 1 8 0 0

0 7 1 0

0 2 11 0 0

1 5 2 0 0

1 12 7 0 0

0 5 4 0 0

1 7 3 0 0

2 2 2 0

0 2 9 1 0

3 2 5 0 0

0 2 9 0 0

9 0 0

1 1 7 0 0

0 1 2 0 0

1 5 3 0 0

0 4 4 1 0

0 2 11 0 0

0 0 8 0 0

0 5 15 0 0

0 2 7 0 0

0 3 8 0 0

1 3 2 0 0

0 1 9 1 0

0 0 11 1 0

0 3 7 0 0

0 0 15 0 O

0 2 7 0 0

0 0 3 0 0

0 1 8 0 0

0 1 9 0 0

0 1 11 1 0

125 1 23 96 5 0

REVIEWING CREDIT LINES OR LOANS ESTABLISHED CUSTOMERS MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY NEW CUSTOMERS MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY LOCAL SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY

125 1 19 104 1 0 125 9 44 TO 2 0

125 1 17 104 3 0

A-9 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

TABLE 3 (CONTINUED)

ALL OSTS

BOSNEW YORK TON TOTAL CITY OUTSIDE

PHILAOEL.

CLEVE- RICHLAND MOND

LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES

ATLAN- CHICST. TA AGO LOUIS

MINNEAPOLIS

KANS. CITY

DALLaS

1 2 5 1 0

0 1 2 0 0

1 4 4 0 0

0 3 6 0 0

0 4 B 1 0

1 4

1 2 5 0

4 5

SAN FRAN

REVIEWING CREDIT LINES OR LOANS NONLOCAL SERVICE AREA CUST MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY

125 9 41 73 2 0

1 2 5 0 0

2 7 11 0 0

0 2 7 0 0

2 5 4 0 0

1 3

9 50 65 0

2 3 3 0

2 9 9 0

0 3 6 0

MUCH EASIER POLICY

INTENDED USE OF LOAN

123

0 5 7 0 0

3 2 5 0 0

0 4 11

0 0

0 4 7 0 0

2 6 3 0

1 2 3 0

2 3 6 0

0 6 6 0

0 6 4 0

0 5 10 0

0 1 2 0

0 5 8 0

FACTORS RELATING TO APPLICANT 2/ VALUE AS DEPOSITOR OR SOURCE

OF COLLATERAL BUSINESS MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY

MUCH FIRMER POLICY

124

101

MODERATELY EASIER POLICY

MUCH EASIER POLICY

0 2

0 3

0 5

MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY

ESSENTIALLY UNCMANGED POLICY

LENDING TO "NONCAPTIVE" FINANCE COMPANIES TERMS

AND CONDITIONS

INTEREST RATES CHARGED

125

MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY

3 42

0 5

0 6

0 3

1 2

0 3

0 4

2 4

0 2

0 3

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY

0 0

MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY

2/ FOR THESE FACTORS, FIRMER MEANS THE FACTORS WERE CONSIDERED MORE IMPORTANT IN MAKING DECISIONS FOR APPROVING CREDIT REQUESTS* AND EASIER MEANS THEY WERE LESS IMPORTANT.

NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

TABLE 3 (CONTINUED) ALL DSTS

LENDING TO "NONCAPTIVE" FINANCE COMPANIES TERMS AND CONDITIONS: SIZE OF COMPENSATING BALANCES MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY ENFORCEMENT OF BALANCE REQUIREMENT MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY ESTABLISHING NEW CREDIT LINES

OR LARGER

MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY

WILLINGNESS TO MAKE OTHER TYPES OF LOANS TERM LOANS TO BUSINESSES CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING CONSUMER

INSTALMENT LOANS

CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLINe CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING

SOSNEW YORK TON TOTAL CITY OUTSIDE

PHILADEL.

CLEVE- RICHLAND MOND

ATLAN- CHICST. TA AGO LOUIS

MINNE- KANS. APOLIS CITY

DALLAS

SAN PRAN

A-11

NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

TABLE 3 (CONTINUED) ALL DSTS

BOSNEW YORK TON TOTAL CITY OUTSIDE

PHILADEL.

WILLINGNESS TO MAKE OTHER TYPES OF LOANS SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING ALL OTHER MORTGAGE LOANS CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING PARTICIPATION LOANS WITH CORRESPONDENT BANKS CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING LOANS TO BROKERS CONSIDERABLY LESS MILLING MODERATELY LESS MILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING NUMBER OF BANKS

ATLAN- CHICTA AGO

CLEVE- RICHLAND MOND

ST. LOUIS

MINNE. KANS. APOLIS CITY

DALLAS

SAN FRAN

123 2 9 99 13 0

0 0 5 3 0

0 2 14 2 0

0 0 6 1 0

0 2 8 1 0

0 0 6 0 0

0 0 9 2 0

0 1 10 1 0

2 0 7 1 0

0 1 14 0 0

0 2 6 1 0

0 0 3 0 0

0 2 7 0 0

0 1 8 0 0

0 0 10 3 0

0 1 5 2 0

0 2 14 1 0

0 0 6 1 a

0 2 B 0 0

0 0 6 0 0

0 1 10 0 0

0 1 11 0 0

1 2 7 0 0

1 1 12 1 0

0 0 9 0 0

0 1 2 0 0

0 1 8 0 0

0 1 11 1 0

0 1 4 3 0

0 2 14 2 0

0 0 6 1 0

0 0 9 2 0

8 1 0

0 0 6 0 0

10 1 0

8 0 0

1 1 11 2

0 1 7 1 0

0 1 2 0 0

0 2 7 0 0

0 1 8 0 0

0 1 11 1 0

0 1 6 1 0

0 4 16 0 0

0 0 9 0 0

0 4 7 0 0

0 1 5 0 0

0 2 9 0 0

0 0 12 0 0

0 0 10 0 0

0 1 14 0 0

0 1 7 1 0

0 0 3 0 0

0 3 5 0 0

0 0 8 1 0

0 0 11 2 0

0 1 6 1 0

1 3 IS 1 0

0 1 8 0 0

1 2 7 1 0

0 2 4 0 0

0 1 9 1 0

0 1 11 0 0

0 0 10 0 0

1 1 12 1 0

0 1 7 0 1

1 0 2 0 0

0 2 5 0 0

0 2 7

0 0 11 2 0

122 2 12 103 5 0 123 2 12 97 12 0

124 0 13 106 5 0 123 3 14 99 6 1 125

APPENDIX B:

ESTIMATED EFFECT OF THE RECENT DEVALUATION ON THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*

A fairly accurate estimate of the direct effects of the recent U.S. devaluation and other exchange rate changes on domestic prices paid by U.S. consumers would require the following information: (1) the expected change in price at the retail level of major types of imports resulting from the devaluation; (2) the share of imports in total domestic expenditures of the major items included in the consumer price index (CPI); (3) the relative importance in the CPI of the items that would be affected by import price changes. The difficulty with this technique is that it requires an estimation of the effect of the devaluation on prices of various categories of imports. It is not feasible to make systematic calculations along these lines without undertaking an extended study that would assemble data not available at

this time. However, an alternative rough estimate can be obtained by assuming that the expected change in import prices resulting from the devaluation will be the same for all categories of goods, and then

applying this estimated price change to the share of imports in total consumer expenditures. For example, the estimated retail value of imports of consumer goods in 1972 was equal to about 6 percent of total final consumer expenditures, including services, and 10 percent of the total excluding services. If import prices, across the board, were to rise by 5 percent (two-thirds of the estimated 8 percent average recent appreciation of foreign currencies), then the total CPI index would rise by roughly .3 percent (6 percent x 5 percent). For goods alone the increase would be slightly higher, or roughly .5 percent (10 percent x 5 percent). If personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in 1973 were an estimated $800 billion, then the additional cost to the consumer would

be roughly $2-1/2 billion ($800 billion x .3 percent). These estimated price effects are the initial or direct effects. They do not reflect the working through into final products of higher prices of imported industrial materials and capital equipment used in the production of domestic goods. Also, in view of the current high level of domestic economic activity and the appearance of supply problems in some industries, additional pressure on U.S. prices may result from acceleration in the volume of exports and an increase in the demand for domestic goods as U.S. consumers shift from foreign goods as a result of the devaluation. In addition, to the extent that imports had been a restraining influence on domestic prices of similar

products, a rise in import prices may result in a corresponding rise

B - 2

in such domestic prices.

These effects are difficult to quantify.

But

it is quite likely that these effects could be sizable, possibly equaling the direct effects indicated above. We understand that the Department of Labor (BLS) is to determine the importance of imports in those categories of for which they collect price information. A number of import specifically identified in the WPI; these make up about 1-1/2

attempting goods items are percent

of prices collected for the WPI. Most of the items are foodstuffs or crude materials -- bananas, coffee, pepper, natural rubber, tin, iron ore, etc. There are a few finished products such as foreign passenger cars, tape recorders, and radios. Except for cars, they have relatively little weight in the WPI.

In the last few months BLS has initiated work that will identify the share of imports in a number of individual CPI categories. In the past, BLS specifications of the commodities included in the CPI have been generic, i.e., by type of good, rather than by place of production. If BLS is successful in collecting this new information, it may then be possible to make a more definitive estimate as outlined in the first paragraph.

*Prepared by Daniel Roxon, Senior Economist, Division of International Finance.

C- 1 APPENDIX C:

SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS*

The January 31 Survey of Bank Loan Commitments showed a moderation in the rate of growth of outstanding unused commitments at the 42 banks reporting the volume of such obligations. (Table 1A) Furthermore, commitment policies firmed dramatically in the face of widespread expectations of rises in takedowns over the next three months and reduced fund availability. (Tables 2 and 3) The percentage growth in total unused commitments--3.4 per cent over the three month interval-was at a considerably lower pace than recorded in previous Surveys. 1/ This can be traced to the lowest rate of growth in two years, 1.7 per cent, in unused commitments to make C&I loans. Within the commercial and industrial category, unused commitments were marked by a substantial percentage rise in commitments to make term loans--continuing the rises noted in earlier Surveys, The total increase, though, was dampened by a more modest increase in revolving credits and confirmed lines. The low rate of growth in the total C&I category, however, was partly offset by a vigorous rise in commitments to nonbank financial institutions and a high rate of increase in mortgage commitments. The growth in both these areas probably reflected the continued strong level of construction activity and a build-up in commitments to finance the seasonal upturn in construction in the spring. For commitments of nonbank financial institutions, the "all other" component--for savings and loan associations, mutual savings banks, and mortgage and insurance companies--showed by far the greatest growth. This was accompanied by a fast rate of increase in commitments

1/ *

After adjustments for a break in series on October 31, 1972. Prepared by Richard Puckett, Senior Economist, and Virginia Lewis, Research Assistant, Banking Section, Division of Research and

Statistics.

C-2 for mortgage warehousing. Both components, of course, are closely linked to construction activity. Some build-up in commitments in the other" category may be connected with attempts to arrange for stand"all by sources of funds in case of possible disintermediation. The patterns shown for new commitments and takedowns, expirations, and cancellations were generally consistent with the movements in previous Surveys and, moreover, were not out of line with the most recent growth in unused commitments. (Tables 1B, 1C) Given the history of appreciable rises in total unused commitments and widespread expectations of rises in takedowns over the next three months, commitment policies firmed according to 21 of the 48 respondents. (Table 2) With heavy loan demands and decreases in liquidity at commercial banks, it seems reasonable to expect further tightening of commitment policies.

C-3 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

QUARTERLY SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS AT SELECTED LARGE U.S. BANKS *1 (AS OF JAN. 31, 1973) TABLE

1A UNUSED CCMMITMENTS

(DOLLAR AMOUNTS IN BILLIONS)

(1) AS OF JAN.

1973 AMT

(2)

(3)

AS OF OCT. 31 1972

AS OF JUL. 31 1972

I rfw

A MT

I NUMBER OF BANKS UNUSED COMMITMENTS C C I FIRMS NONBK FINAN INSTS REAL ESTATE MORTG MEMO: CONSTRUCTION LOANS INCL ABOVE

ia rr

62.01

3.4|

79.41

60.81 15.31 5.91 4.71

1.71

59.8

7.01 12.51 16.71

14.31 5.31 4.11 1I

I COMMERCIAL & INDUST FIRMS TERM LOANS REVOLVING CREDITS TOT: TERM £ REV *2 CONFIRMED LINES OTHER COMMITMENTS NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCE COMPANIES MTGE WAREHOUSING ALL OTHER

3.41 14.91 19.01 37.21 4.61

10.01 2.01 3.41 1.11 -0.11

3.11 14.61

18.41 36.81 4.61

8.6) 2.41 4.31

2.91 8.41

15.51

2.21 3.71

19.01 9.01

AMT ~I

I 9

42 4.61 4.61 2.71 10.71 8.21

75.91 57.21 13.91 4.71 3.81

5.31 4.71 6.31 8.91 8.71

I I I

I I I 22.41 2.61 4.11 14.01 6.91 17.21 2.71 35.91 11.3) 4.11 I1 I

I I

72.11 54.61 13.11 4.41 3.51

8.31 2.21 3.41

2.21 8.21 13.9)

AM T

42 2.51 2.71 1.01 5.91 8.21

13.91 2.21 3.91 13.51 4.91 16.41 4.81 34.21 3.21 4.01 I1

(5)

0.91 0.41 11.11

I I

1.81

-8.19

3.4)

24.2)

8.11 2.C0

2.91

53.21 13.01 4.11 3.21

3 .41

51,11 12.21 3.61 2.91

6,7 ( 13.6) 9.21

12.01 6.81

1.81 2.61

AMT

1!9

42 2.91 2.41 4.11 6.21 1,01

65.11

50.01 11.71 3.41

2.91

I I 8.11 1.91 3.01

1.61 2.61 2.6|

16.51 31.01 3.71 I1

19.91 1.91 3.91 1.71 1.41

7.71 1.91 2.61 1

16.61

1.31

11.81

2.31

1.91 13.31 15.91 30.41 3.61

3.01

12.3 -. 01

3.21 5.21 171.91 7) 17.71

NOTE:

MINOR INCONSISTENCIES MAY OCCUR IN FIGURES DUE

rCkI

7.31

1.81 2.61

62.11 47.41 11.31 3.41 2.71

6.4 6.5 3.0 18.0 18.8

1.81 12.91

15.41 28.91 3.11

16.9 1.2 1.5 8.5 15.4

I I

I 2.69 1.91 10.61 2.61

I 7.11 1.61 2.61

0.0 -1.6 16.0

1.01 2.31

17.7 18.2

I 13.71 2.31

I 1.21 2.21

12.31

-4.01

*1 BANKS PARTICIPATING IN THE QUARTERLY INTEREST RATE SURVEY -- MAINLY BANKS WITH TOTAL DEFOSITS OF $1 BILLION OR MORE. *2 THE TOTAL MAY EXCEED THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS TWC ITEMS SINCE SCME BANKS REPORT ONLY TOTALS. *3 GROWTH RATES MAY BE MISLEADING SINCE A BREAK IN SERIES OCCURRED AT THIS TIME. **

I1 5.21 5.0) 0.21

AMT

I 4.71 5.31 3.31 1.11 5.41

I 5.81 2.71 12.21

2.31 13.61

I I -6.61 2.71 1.21 5.61 2.31

AS OF APR. 30 1971

13.51 1.31

rwCr

I I

66.91

I 2.01 2.81

I-

5.01

2.11 14.01 16.71 32.71 3.81

0.71 5.11 -0.81

AMT

70T31

5.01 -3.11 -1.71 4.61 5.41

ri -4'-

(8)

(7) AS OF JUL. 31 1971

(6)

AS OF OCT. 29 1971

AS OF JAN. 31 1972

8.41 2.21 3.71

I1 REAL ESTATE MORTGES RESIDENTIAL OTHER

*3( WCr wr i II I

44) AS CF SII APR. 30 . II II 1972 ur' 1 I AM 1I rL ii r~IT r i

TO ROUNDING. **

NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

QUARTERLY SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS AT SELECTED LARGE U.S. BANKS *1 (AS OF JAN. 31, 1973) TABLE

1B NEW COMMITMENTS

(DOLLAR AMOUNTS IN BILLIONS)

(1)

AS OF JAN. 31

1973 AMT ~uL-r

NUMBER OF BANKS GRAND TOTAL NEW COMMITMENTS C & I FIRMS 14CNBK FINAN 1NSTS REAL LSTATE MORTG MEMO: CONSTRUCTION LOANS INCL ABOVE COMMERCIAL E INDUST FIRMS TERM LOANS REVOLVING CREDITS TCT: TERM & REV *2 CONFIRMED LINES OTHER COMMITMENTS NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCE COMPANIES MTGE WAREHOUSING ALL OTHER

1.6 I

9.31

I 1 I I 4.0 1

1 I I I 34.81 S-0.6) S10.21 S-2.31 S 2.81

I 11.11 22.41 11.31

1.1 1 1.6 1

9.51

10.01

*3 rur

14)

(3) AS OF JUL. 31 1972 .

AMT

rur

.....

(5) AS OF JAN. 31 1972

AS OF APR. 30 1972 .I

AMT . . .

rut.

-11

AMT

I 2b.01 -23.61 21.11 -24.91 4.31 -31.61 2.51 lt.01 1.71 26.61

36.61 28.11 6.31 2.21 1.31

35.31

27.01

1I.61

38.01

20.41

33.31

4,71

12.31

1.91 1.21

12.11 29.91 23.91 11.71

10.01

1 I1

2.94 5.41

-17.41 -1.81

8.61

-7.51

11.01 -36.91 1.51

I I

10.01

I I

1.91 -46.21 0.81 -17.01 1.51 -9.2)

I I 1.01 1.51

I1 3.61 5.51 9.31 17.51 1.41

61.21 11.61

2.21 4.91 7.31

23.41 18.21 3.61

1.61I

2.01

11.71

4.41

6.51

11.81

5.21

1,31

-25.81

9.91 1.71

21.21

8.51 25.51 1.91 4.81 1

16.81 -38.71

I I I -8,81 17.61 5.41 4.81

57.01

-39.41

2.91 -48.11 1.51 -24.91 1.01 -24.21

1.01

42.71 3.91

1.71

36.21

1.11

22.51

1.11

3.61

0.91 1.31 2.51

0.91

0.91 1.01

51.51 1.91

2.21 3.81 6.21 9.51 1.11

17.31 -44.61 -30.41 -36.61 -68.91

19,71

1.71

0.91

1.01

I 19.11 28.31

-0.41 65,91 57.11 1

0.81 D.al

-2.21 6.01

I I

1.71 -52.61

0.51 -40.11 0.71 -40.31 I I I I 0.81 -13.01 0.81

ruw a~ri r

-33.91

NOTE:

MINOR INCCNSISTENCIES MAY CCCUR IN FIGURES DUE TC RCUliDING. **

AMT "~'

35.01 27.41 5.51 2.11 1.41

43.01 45.21 37.81 29.71 16.41

rwr_

I 42

24.51 18.91

4.01

16.0 17.7

6.4

1.61

22.9

1.21

21.8

I 1.91

24.5

4.81

-6.7

8.91 29.2 14.91 35.11 3.51 291.11 I1 1 1 1 3.51 63.61 0.91 46.21 1.11 -10.71

6.91 11.11 0.91 I

1.1 30.5 25.4

51.91

1.91

6.81

0.91 1.21

-0.11 40.81

16.71

*1 BANKS PARTICIPATING IN THE QUARTERLY INTEREST RATE SURVEY MAINLY BANKS WITH TOTAL DEPOSITS OF $1 BILLION OR MORE. *2 THE TOTAL MAY EXCEED THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS TWO ITEMS SINCE SOME BANKS REPORT ONLY TOTALS. *3 GROWTH RATES MAY BE MISLEADING SINCE A BREAK IN SERIES OCCURRED AT THIS TIME. **

(8) AS CF APR. 30 1971

S 3.61

AMT ,".

10.31

I 42

10.91

12.11 18.71

r u-

26.71 48.31

I I -5.71 38.01

I I

(7) AS OF JUL. 31 1971

(6) AS CF OCT. 29 1971 AMT II CHG

I REAL ESTATE MORTGES RESIDENTIAL OTHER

I AMT

I I I I 5.31 3.11 13.31 9.b8

2.1 1.0 1 1.7 1

1972

I ruN

I 42 I I I 29.4 I 21.8 I 4.8 I Z.b I

5.4 9.5 10.8 1.6

(2) AS OF OCT. 31

I 2.21

-4.4

0.61

-14.0

1.21

55.0

0.61 1.01

47.7 12.0

NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

QUARTERLY SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS AT SELECTED LARGE U.S. BANKS *1 (AS OF JAN. 31, 1973) TABLE 1C TAKEDOWNS, EXPIRATIONS, AND CANCELLATIONS *2 (DOLLAR

(1)

1973 --AMT

ruc s-Y"Y

"IT

TOTAL TAKEDOWNS C C I FIRMS NONBK FINAN INSTS REAL ESTATE MORTG MEMO: CONSTRUCTION LOANS INCL ABOVE

26.81 20.81 3.81

COMMERCIAL & INDUST FIRMS TERM LOANS REVOLVING CREUITS TOT: TERM & REV *4 CONFIRMED LINES OTHER COMMITMENTS NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCE COMPANIES MTGE WAREHOUSING ALL OTHER

I I

NUMBER OF BANKS

I|,

I I

24.51

2.11

1.21

19.71

1.41 1

10.41 1.61

18.51 3,91

2.01

I GAMT M I 42

23.61 23.7|

51.41 15.41

31.81 21.8 25.6)

2.41 4.81 7.4)

10.11 1.11

(4)

21.41 27.81 25.31

I I

I 50.21 30.91 28.01

1.81

27.51

1.01

21.51

43.0) 24.81 28.71 21.51 18.8)

3.21

55.91

5.01 8.51

26.21 33.01

15.81

30.61

1.31

23.4)

24.91 1.951

1.01

I 0.81 1.31

I I

I 26.71 26.41

18.15 26.41 24.0

1.21 0.81

I I

1. 1

Ia- A a

25.21 19.01 4.61 1.71 0.91

25.91

25.81 25.81 28.11

16.2)

2.81 1.11

21.5)

I I

2.11 5.4) 7.61

48.31 28.4) 31.71

10.31 1.1)

23.11

22.21 23.31 17.71 20.71 20.4) 1

1.11

21.31

27.51 20.11 30.2)

19.1 15.6)

2.41 1.31

22.41 23.41 io.51 26.81

32.01 24.81

33.01

20 .7

33.21

16.01

5.21

30.61

2.01

37.11 29.61

3.71 1.11 0.71 1

1.21

5.61 9.0 1.01 1.81 3.51

44.01 20.51 25.31 22.41 22.11

1.71 6.41 8.41 13.41 3.01

47.0o 32.41

45.01

1.61 4.71 6.71 8.81 0.51

14.41 19.61 19.91

3.41 0.71

31.71 29.31 28.41

2.21 0.71 0.91

31.31 23.91

0.81

39.11 36.01

0.41 0.61

34.71

30.61

I 29.11

0.81

2o.61

2.51 0.85

23.2) 28.91

27.91

1.31

30.21

4.91 0.91

30.91 24.81

0.91 0.71

1 0.7)

28.01

1.01

28.21

0.51 0.51 0.51

13.11 30.71 19.51 1

0.71 9.01 1.01 1

25.41 17.61

0.61 0.71

1.01

0.51 0.71 1.31

BANKS PARTICIPATING IN THE QUARTERLY INTEREST RATE SURVEY MAINLY BANKS WITH TOTAL DEPOSITS OF $1 BILLION OR MORE. FOR THIS TABLE THE PERCENTAGE CHANGE COLUMN CONTAINS THE RATIO OF TAKEDOWNS TO AVAILABLE COMMITMENTS; EXPRESSED AS A (AVAILABLE COMMITMENTS = UNUSED COMMITMENTS FROM THE PREVIOUS QUARTER * NEW CCMMITMENTS IN THE CURRENT QUARTER). PERCENTAGE CHANGE NOT COMPUTED FOR THIS QUARTER DUE TO THE SIZE CONSTRAINTS OF THE MATRIX. THE TOTAL MAY EXCEED THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS TWO ITEMS SINCE SOME BANKS REPORT ONLY TOTALS. GROWTH RATES MAY BE MISLEADING SINCE A BREAK IN SERIES OCCURRED AT THIS TIME. **

NOTE:

MINOR

25.6)

50.01 6.31 0.81

API

I I 22.51

I (B) I AS OF I APR. 30 1971 I CHG I AMT It CHG*3

(7) AS OF JUL. 3I1 1971 A IJ

I 39.71 19.51

3.41 1.31

AuA

(6) AS OF OCT. 29 1971

I 1.91 0.81 1.21

- -

I 16.1l

IV VL.f 1&aw

15) AS OF JAN. 31 1972

AS OF APR. 30 1972

IX H l CHG

32.81 25.6) 5.+l

I I I

.11

REAL ESTATE MORTGES RESIDENTIAL OTHER

~_L l *iolG

AMT I LI

S AS CF S JUL. 31 1972

AS CF 0CT. 31 1972 *5

24.61 25.51 20.11 26.51

3.61 5.11 8.91

(2)

AS CF JAN. 3

AMOUNTS IN BILLIONS)

INCONSISTENCIES

MAY OCCUR IN FIGURES DUE TO ROUNDING. **

PERCENTAGE.

NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

QUARTERLY SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS AT SELECTED LARGE U.S. BANKS (AS OF JAN. 31, 1973) TABLE 2:

VIEWS ON COMMITMENT POLICY

(1) JAN. 31 1973

(2) OCT. 31 1972

(3) JULY 31 1972

(4) APR. 30 1972

(5) JAN. 31 1972

(6) OCT. 29 1971

(7) JULY 31 1971

(8) APR. 30 1971

TOTAL NUMBER OF BANKS RESPONDING:

UNUSED COMMITMENTS IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS HAVE: RISEN RAPIDLY RISEN MODERATELY REMAINED UNCHANGED DECLINED MODERATELY DECLINED RAPIDLY

2 23 17 6 0

1 24 19 4 0

2 17 21 8 0

0 20 21 7 0

1 22 19 6 0

0 25 15 8 0

1 19 19 9 0

5 25 12 6 0

TAKEDOWNS IN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS SHOULD: RISE RAPIDLY RISE MODERATELY REMAIN UNCHANGED DECLINE MODERATELY DECLINE RAPIDLY

4 33 11 0 0

0 28 20 0 0

0 26 21 1 0

0 26 20 2 0

0 14 28 6 0

0 13 31 4 0

0 16 31 1 0

0 13 33 2 0

COMMITMENT POLICY COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS AGO IS: MUCH MORE RESTRICTIVE SOMEWHAT MORE RESTRICTIVL UNCHANGED LESS RESTRICTIVE MUCH LESS RESTRICTIVE

0 21 25 1 1

0 1 42 5 0

0 1 44 3 0

(

0 0 37 11 0

0 2 37 9 0

0 1 25 21 1

40 3 0

34 13 1

NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION

QUARTERLY SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS AT SELECTED LARGE U.S. BANKS (AS OF JAN. 31, 1973) TABLE 3

(1) JAN. 31 1973 INDICATED CHANGE: MORE RESTRICTIVE: INCREASED DEMAND REDUCED FUNDS BOTH

LESS RESTRICTIVE: INCREASED FUNDS DECREASED DEMAND BOTH

EXPLANATION OF CHANGES IN NEW COMMITMENT POLICY

(2) OCT.

31 1972

(3) JULY 31 1972

(4)

APR. 30 1972

(5) JAN. 31 1972

(6)

OCT. 29 1971

(7) JULY 31 1971

(8) APR. 3C 1971

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1973, March 19). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19730320_part1

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19730320_part1,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1973},
  month = {Mar},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19730320_part1},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}