Greenbook/Tealbook
Prefatory Note
The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.
1
In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.
CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC
December 14, 1990
SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY
Industrial production and capacity Consumer spending . . . . . . . . Business inventories . . . . . . . Producer prices . . . . . . . . .
utilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
Tables Growth in selected components of industrial production Capacity utilization in selected industries. Retail sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in manufacturing and trade inventories Inventories relative to sales . . . . . . . . Recent changes in producer prices . . . . . . Recent changes in consumer prices . . . . . . Charts Ratio of inventories to sales . . . . . . . . Unemployment insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Tables Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit .. ... Selected financial market quotations ..
2
SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Total industrial production is estimated to have dropped 1.7 percent in November after declines of 0.9 percent in October and 0.1 percent in September.
Manufacturing production also declined 1.7 percent last month,
and capacity utilization in these industries slipped 1-1/2 percentage points to 80 percent; the manufacturing operating rate last month was about 3 percentage points lower than a year earlier. About one-half of the November decline in total IP stemmed from a sharp reduction in output of motor vehicles and parts; motor vehicle assemblies plummeted 2-1/4 million units (annual rate, FRB seasonals) in November to an 8.4 million unit rate.
In addition, production at utilities fell
3.6 percent last month, which chipped about 1/4 percent off of total IP. Much of the decline in output at electric and gas utilities probably stemmed from unseasonably warm temperatures, but a significant portion likely reflected reduced demand by commercial and industrial users as a result of a general slackening in economic activity. Output of consumer goods fell 2 percent last month; the November decline reflected, in part, the drop in motor vehicle assemblies and the estimated falloff in output of electricity and natural gas for residential use.
Excluding these two components, the index for consumer goods has
declined steadily since August.
Production of home goods has weakened
significantly, falling another 1.1 percent in November after sizable
-2GROWTH IN SELECTED COMPONENTS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Percent change from preceding comparable period) Proportion in total IP 1989:Q4
1990
HI
1
------Total index
Q2
Q3
1990
Oct.-Nov. Ave. over Q3
Annual rate---------
Sep.
Oct.
---Monthly rate----
100.0
2.4
4.2
3.6
-6.9
-0.1
-0.9
-1.7
95.7
2.2
2.3
3.6
-5.7
-0.4
-0.8
-0.9
4.2 5.6 2.5 43.4
2.0 3.1 1.2 1.9
-5,9 -5.6
0.1
-1.6
-6.6 -26.2
0.3 6.8 -0.4 -0.8
-0.8 -0.9 -1.0
-4.3
-13.4 -0.8 -1.1 -0.7
Excluding motor vehicles and parts Products, total Final products Consumer goods Automotive products Other consumer goods Durables Nondurables Energy Other Business equipment Motor vehicles Other business equipment Computers Other Construction supplies
61.2 46.6
25.9 2.4
2.8 3.2 -0.3 7.8
23.5
-1.1
-0.9
3.1 20.4 2.7
4.6 -2.0
-1.0
-9.3 -0.9
1.2 -1.4
8.7 14.1 8.2 16.1 6.6
17.7
15.2 1.1 14.1 2.5 11.6 6.0
Materials Durable Nondurable Energy
38.8 19.8 8.8 10.2
Memorandum: Manufacturing Excluding motor vehicles
84.9
-1.7
-4.4
-12.3
-0.3
-0.7
-2.2
2.6 13.8 1.0
-12.9 -1.5
10.7 92.7 6.1
8.1 3.1
-4.5 -33.2
0.8
-0.8
9.4
-4.2 -0.6
9.8 8.3
-1.9 0.5
0.1
14.1 4.4 -6.8
-3.1
8.5 -3.0
-0.8
-0.2
-0.4 -1.7 -0.2
-3.8
-0.3 -1.9
-21.1 -0.3 -0.7
-0.6
-0.3
-12.7
-1.7
-0.9
-1.7
-0.4
-1.0
-1.8
-1.2
-2.6
-0.8 -0.8
-1.7
-0.8 -0.7
-1.7 -0.8
-2.4
-0.6
-8.3 -10.6 -4.9 -6.5
2.9 2.6
3.8 1.6
3.1 3.0
-6.7 -5.2
-0.8 -0.0
0.1 -0.1 -0.5
-0.3
CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES (Percent of capacity; seasonally adjusted) --
1990
1989
Avq.
High
Nov.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Total industry
82.2
85.0
83.5
83.3
82.4
80.9
Manufacturing
81.5
85.1
83.0
82.5
81.6
80.0
Primary processing Textile mill products Lumber and products 1 Primary processing chemicals Petroleum products Iron and steel
82.3 86.0
86.1 86.0
84.7 85.3
83.8 83.9
82.7
89.0 91.2 91.2 91.7
85.7 89.1
79.7
82.9 85.1
90.3
90.3
79.4
92.0
79.1
90.3 86.0
78.7 84.4 89.7 83.4
82.4 82.5 75.2 83.7 87.8
Advanced processing 2 Advanced process ng chemicals
81.1 77.2
81.7 79.0
81.5 78.0
81.3
83.6 83.2 83.5
81.9
82.7
80.4 76.7
83.1 85.5
81.0 75.0
80.0 79.8
Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts
-2.0
-0.4
6.2 6.8 4.9 6.2
1967-89 1988-89
-1.7
1.5 -0.2
4.2 7.7 1.4 0.1
1.8 3.2 1.4
80.6
1.1 -7.6
0.2
0.4
1. From the final quarter of the previous period to the final quarter of the period indicated.
Nonelectrical machinery
Nov.
84.6
80.7 77.5 82.0 78.7 76.9
83.2 78.9
77,8 81.2 78.1
63.1
1. Primary processing chemicals includes industrial organic and inorganic chemicals, synthetic materials, plastics resins and fertilizers. 2. Advanced processing chemicals includes drugs and toiletries, soaps and detergents, paints and allied products, pesticides, and other miscellaneous chemical products.
-3declines in the preceding two months.
Among nondurables, output of
clothing, which has been falling since May, retreated further last month. Production of business equipment fell nearly 2 percent in November after a 0.7 percent decline in the previous month.
The November decline
reflected not only the drop in assemblies of motor vehicles for business, but also lower production of a variety of capital goods, including industrial equipment, computers, and service industry equipment.
Output of
construction supplies dropped further last month and was nearly 7 percent below the recent highs reached early this year. Materials output, which peaked in August, fell 1.8 percent further in November.
Output of durables has dropped sharply during the past two
months, owing, in part, to reduced demand from motor vehicle producers. Production of parts for business equipment and output of basic metals also have declined in recent months.
Among other materials, production of
textiles fell again, but output of paper materials continued to be well maintained.
Production of energy materials fell 1.7 percent last month,
with significant decreases in electricity generation and coal mining. Consumer Spending Nominal retail sales are estimated to have been little changed, on balance, in October and November from a September level that is considerably lower than previously reported.
In the retail control category, which
excludes spending at automotive dealers and at building material and supply stores, sales are estimated to have increased 0.3 percent last month. Growth in retail control in September was revised down 0.4 percentage point;
RETAIL SALES
(Seasonally adjusted percentage change)
1990
Total sales Previous estimate
Q1
Q2
Q3
2.6
-.9
1.5 1.7
1
Retail control 2 Previous estimate GAF 3 Previous estimate
1990
.0 1
2.3
1.9 2.0
-.9
3.6
Bldg. material and supply Automotive dealers Furniture and appliances Other durable goods
2.9 3.8 2.7
4.3
-3.0
-2.1 -3.6 -. 5
-4.0
.9
.5
.9 -. 5 -. 6
.0
1.3
.0
1.4
.6 .7
.8
-1.9
.3 -2.3 .6
2.7
2.4 2.6
.6 1.2
1.4 -. 8
2.0
.3
Apparel Food General merchandise Gasoline stations Other nondurables 5
.9 1.6 2.7
1.0 1.2
-2.9 1.7
2.1
2.2 2.4
1.7 1.2 -2.2 -. 7 1.1
-1.3 4.9 .1
14.4
14.0
9.8
9.5
4.6
4.4
14.2 9.7 4.5
Memo: Motor vehicle sales 6 Autos Light trucks
9.3 1.9
Nov.
1.3
Nondurable goods stores Previous estimatel
4
Oct.
-1.1 -. 8
1
Durable goods stores Previous estimate 1
Sept.
14.5 10.1
4.4
-1.3 1.4 -. 6 .3
-. 3
-1.4
-2.6
-1.3
.3 -2.0
2.6 -. 6
.8 .5 -. 4 .7 1.0
13.5 9.3 4.2
12.7 8.5 4.2
-. 1 -. 6
1. Based on incomplete sample counts approximately one month ago. 2. Total retail sales less building material and supply stores and automotive dealers, except auto and home supply stores. 3. General merchandise, apparel, furniture, and appliance stores. 4. General merchandise excludes mail order nonstores; mail order sales are also excluded in the GAF grouping. 5. Includes sales at eating and drinking places, drug and proprietary stores. 6. Millions of units at an annual rate; BEA seasonals.
-5October growth was essentially unchanged.
Sales of domestically produced
autos and light trucks, which dropped from a 10.7 million unit annual rate in October to a 9.7 million unit rate in November, are estimated to have remained at that rate in early December.
Overall, these new figures imply
no significant change to the staff's forecast for the growth of real personal consumption expenditures during the current quarter. In November, nominal spending at general merchandisers is estimated to have declined 0.4 percent, consistent with much anecdotal evidence of weak activity at these stores.
Spending at apparel stores posted an increase of
0.8 percent, partially retracing declines of the preceding two months. furniture stores, sales edged up 0.3 percent in November.
At
For these three
types of outlets as a whole, the so-called GAF grouping, November outlays were unchanged; however, the level of nominal GAF sales in November was 1.3 percent below the third-quarter average (not at an annual rate). Nominal sales at gasoline stations are estimated to have increased 0.7 percent in November, down sharply from the rates of growth posted in the preceding three months.
Sales at food stores rose 0.5 percent in November;
the level of spending last month at these stores was about 1-1/2 percent above the third-quarter average. Business Inventories Inventories held by nonauto retailers rose at an annual rate of $13 billion in current dollars in October.
The increase follows two months
in which stocks at these stores were little changed in current dollars and were drawn down in constant dollars.
The accumulation was concentrated at
1. The downward revisions to the September estimates occurred among nondurable goods stores: apparel outlets, food stores, gasoline stations, and miscellaneous other nondurable goods stores.
CHANGES IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES (Billions of dollars at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted data)
1990 Q1
1990
Q2
Q3
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Current-cost basis: Total Total excluding retail auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto
-7.0 9.1 2.7 2.2 -11.8 -16.1 4.3
11.2 9.8 -4.2 7.6 7.8 1.4 6.5
57.5 36.7 25.2 8.2 24.1 20.8 3.3
64.1 19.1 12.2 6.4 45.5 45.0 0.5
40.3 40.5 32.2 3.7 4.3 -0.2 4.5
36.9 21.7 3.3 5.4 28.2 15.2 13.0
-25.0 -2.4 1.7 -1.1 -25.6 -22.6 -3.0
6.2 3.3 -2.6 1.2 7.6 2.8 4.8
4.1 1.6 1.5 2.3 0.3 2.5 -2.2
-15.0 -19.1 -12.8 0.1 -2.4 4.1 -6.5
-14.9 -11.5 -4.9 -4.0 -6.0 -3.5 -2.5
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Constant-dollar basis: Total Total excluding retail auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto
INVENTORIES RELATIVE TO SALES 1 (Months supply; based on seasonally adjusted data)
1990 Q1
1990
Q2
Q3
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Range in 2 preceding 12 months: Low High Current-cost basis: Total Total excluding retail auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto
1.46 1.43 1.52 1.24 1.55 1.81 1.46
1.51 1.49 1.65 1.27 1.62 2.12 1.50
1.48 1.46 1.60 1.25 1.55 1.84 1.48
1.48 1.45 1.56 1.25 1.58 1.92 1.49
1.48 1.45 1.56 1.26 1.60 2.08 1.47
1.46 1.43 1.52 1.24 1.60 2.12 1.47
1.48 1.45 1.55 1.27 1.59 2.07 1.46
1.47 1.44 1.52 1.27 1.60 2.08 1.47
1.42 1.39 1.44 1.26 1.51 1.72 1.44
1.46 1.45 1.54 1.30 1.58 2.04 1.49
1.44 1.42 1.50 1.28 1.51 1.73 1.46
1.43 1.41 1.47 1.27 1.55 1.82 1.48
1.43 1.41 1.46 1.28 1.54 1.84 1.46
1.42 1.39 1.44 1.26 1.55 1.89 1.46
1.44 1.42 1.46 1.30 1.54 1.83 1.47
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Constant-dollar basis: Total Total excluding retail auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto
1. Ratio of end of period inventories to average monthly sales for the period. 2. Highs and lows are specific to each series and are not necessarily month for coincidential. Range is for the 12-month period preceding the latest which data are available.
RATIO OF INVENTORIES TO SALES (Current-cost data) Manufacturing Ratio 2.1
-,
-
1.9
-
1.7
Total
Oct.
0-^ Excluding transportation equipment
II 1979
I 1981
I
-I 1983
I
I
1985
1987
" '-'
I
,
- 1.5
1 1989
1.3
Wholesale Ratio 1.5
-1.4
-
1.3
1.2
I 1979
I
I 1981
II 1983
I 1985
I
I 1987
1.1 1989
Retail
Ratio 1.7
Tota
Oclt. -
E dn to1.4
1981
1983
1985
1987
-
-4L 1.4
, 1979
16
1989
-8general merchandisers, where sales declined for a second month in October, and at stores selling various nondurables other than general merchandise, food, and apparel.
2
Apparel stores apparently were somewhat more
successful in controlling their stocks, which were little changed in October despite weaker sales.
Overall, the inventory-sales ratio for nonauto
retailers ticked up only fractionally from its recent low in September. Producer Prices Producer prices of finished goods rose 0.5 percent in November.
Energy
price increases slowed, held down by declines in the prices of refined petroleum products.
Food prices, which were little changed in the third
quarter, increased 0.8 percent in November, following a similar rise in October.
The PPI for finished goods other than food and energy moved up
0.5 percent in November; thus far, the spillover of higher prices for crude oil to the prices of finished goods appears to have been small. The PPI for finished energy was little changed in November.
Producer
prices of gasoline and fuel oil fell 2-1/2 percent and 7-1/4 percent, respectively, reflecting the partial easing of crude oil prices.
However,
the PPI for natural gas, which had fallen about 8-1/2 percent in the three months ending in October, bounced back 5 percent in November. The PPI for finished goods other than food and energy was boosted in November by a 3.7 percent increase in tobacco prices and a 1.8 percent increase in prices of passenger cars.
The rise in car prices followed a
2.7 percent decline in October; these monthly fluctuations likely reflect
2. Our contact at the Census Bureau indicated that a change in gasoline inventories did not contribute importantly to this increase.
RECENT CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES (Percentage change; based on seasonally adjusted data) 1
Relative importance Dec. 1989
1990 1988
1989
Q1
1990
Q2
Q3
Oct.
------ Annual rate----Finished goods Consumer foods Consumer energy Other finished goods Consumer goods Capital equipment
Nov.
-Monthly rate-
100.0 25.9 9.2 64.9 39.5 25.4
4.0 5.7 -3.6 4.3 4.8 3.6
4.9 5.2 9.5 4.2 4.4 3.8
7.1 10.6 24.7 3.6 3.5 4.0
.3 -3.8 -14.3 4.2 5.4 2.3
11.7 .6 137.4 3.2 2.2 5.3
1.1 .9 8.0 .0 .0 -.2
.5 .8 .1 .5 .6 .2
Intermediate materials 2 Excluding food and energy
94.9 82.5
5.3 7.2
2.5 .9
2.5 1.0
-. 4 .7
13.4 4.0
1.6 .4
.2 .2
Crude food materials Crude energy Other crude materials
41.9 40.5 17.5
14.2 -9.5 7.5
2.8 17.9 -3.6
9.1 .5 4.0
-10.2 -39.2 13.2
-7.9 296.0 8.7
1.1 18.7 -1.7
-1.7 -10.3 -2.3
1. Changes are from final month of preceding period to final month of period indicated. 2. Excludes materials for food manufacturing and animal feeds.
RECENT CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES (Percentage change; based on seasonally adjusted data) 1
Relative importance Dec. 1989
1990
1990 1988
1989
Q1
Q2
Q3
------ Annual rate----All items 2 Food Energy All items less food and energy Commodities Services
Sept.
Oct.
-Monthly rate-
100.0 16.3 7.4
4.4 5.2 .5
4.6 5.6 5.1
8.5 11.4 14.8
3.5 2.1 -2.0
7.9 3.7 42.7
.8 .2 5.6
.6 .4 4.5
76.3 25.2 51,1
4.7 4.0 5.0
4.4 2.7 5.3
7.5 7.8 7.2
3.9 .7 5.5
5.7 2.9 7.2
.3 .4 .3
.3 .2 .3
100.0
4.4
4.5
8.3
3.2
8.0
.8
.7
Memorandum: CPI-W 3
1. Changes are from final month of preceding period to final month of period indicated. 2. Official index for all urban consumers. 3. Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
-10the difficulties in seasonal adjustment around the beginning of the new model year. At earlier stages of processing, the PPI for intermediate materials excluding food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November.
A 1 percent further
increase in prices of materials for nondurable manufacturing--which includes paints, plastics, rubber, and other petroleum derivatives--was partly offset by sharp declines in prices of industrial metals, which tend to be sensitive to the pace of activity in manufacturing.
-11-
Unemployment Insurance (Weekly data; seasonally adjusted, FRB basis <1>) Initial Claims
Thousands
700 650 600 550
Dec 1 479.9
All regular programs
500 450 400 350 300
1981
1982
1984
1983
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Insured Unemployment
1991
Millons
250
5.0
4.5
4.0
All regular programs
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5 1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
<1> Only the state program components of these sries ae seasonally adjusted.
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
-12MONETARY AGGREGATES (based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted)
19891
-----------Ml M2 M3
1. 2. 3.
0.6 4.6 3.3
1990 Q2
1990 Q3
1990 Sep
1990 Oct
1990 Nov p
Growth Q4 89Nov 90p
Percent change at annual rates-------------------3.5 3.2 1.1
4.1 3.1 1.7
9.3 5.3 0.8
------------ Percent change at annual
-3.1 0.4 -1.0
3.8 -0.9 -1.4
rates-----------
4.0 3.6 1.4
Levels bil. $ Nov
9
0p
Selected components 4.
Ml-A
5. 6.
0.4
Currency Demand deposits
1.6
6.8
12.1
-0.7
2.5
530.3
9.2 -4.7
11.6 2.6
15.6 7.8
12.4 -12.4
3.9 1.7
244.8 277.2
7.
Other checkable deposits
7.1
-0.8
4.1
-7.0
5.8
292.3
8.
M2 minus M1i
3.1
2.8
4.0
1.5
-2.4
2495.8
-8.6
-2.0
5.9
-16.0
38.2
-75.5
78.9
29.7 7.5 -1.7 19.0 -0.2 -9.3 5.8
1.2 10.3 8.6 12.1 -4.0 1.4 -7.1
13.2 7.5 15.3 -10.0 -5.3 -12.8
21.4 6.4 4.4 8.2 -6.2 -3.8 -7.7
9.8 12.7 3.8 21.5 -16.1 -12.3 -18.3
-4.9 2.6 0.8 4.5 -4.9 -3.1 -5.9
343.3 1162.2 574.7 587.6 910.9 346.0 564.9
-1.3
-7.3
-4.3
-18.0
-7.1
-3.3
769.6
4.2 9.9 -7.8
-10.3 -2.8 -30.1
-8.7 -0.8 -31.4
-17.2 -13.9 -26.3
-15.1 -8.0 -37.4
-10.1 -0.9 -39.6
505.9 388.8 117.1
17.1 -14.7 -21.9
11.5 5.0 -22.4
22.0 0.8 11.6
22.1 -46.4 15.8
38.2 -40.6 3.5
3.0 -3.9 19.0
120.1 91.0 70.6
9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 6.
Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual fund shares Commercial banks 3 Savings deposits plus MMDAs Small time deposits Thrift institutions 3 Savings deposits plus MMDAs Small time deposits
. M3 minus M2
4
18. 19. 20.
Large time deposits At commercial banks, net 5 At thrift institutions
21.
Institution-only money market mutual fund shares Term RPs* NSA Term Eurodollars, NSA
22. 23.
11.3
----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars--MEMORANDA:6 24. Managed liabilities at commercial banks 125+26) 25. Large time deposits, gross 26. Nondeposit funds 27. Net due to related foreign institutions 7 Other 28.
6.0 2.6 3.5
-1.6 -1.5 -0.1
1.0 -2.4 3.4
-7.1 -5.2 -1.9
5.3 -4.0 9.3
0.2 3.3
-0.8 0.7
1.5 2.0
2.5 -4.5
9.0 0.3
0.4
2.6
-5.0
-0.3 -2.0 1.7
732.0
439.5 292.5
0.2 1.5
28.6 263.9
5.0
26.9
29. U.S. government deposits at commercial bankss
-0.3
-6.3
1. Amounts shown are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. 2. Nontransactions H2 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. 3. Commercial bank savings deposits excluding MIDAs grew during October and November at rates of 7.9 percent and -0.6 percent, respectively. At thrift institutions, savings deposits excluding MMDAs grew during October and November at rates of -13.7 percent and -5 percent, respectively. 4. The non-H2 component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. institutions. 5. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift 6. Dollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities for borrowed money (including borrowing from the sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor items). 8. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks. p - preliminary
Data are partially
estimated.
-13COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT
(Percentage changes at annual rates, based on seasonally adjusted data) 1 1988:04
to 1989:Q4
1990 Q3
Q2
---------------------.-
Sep.
Oct.
Nov. p
Levels bil.$ Nov. p
Commercial Bank Credit --------------------
1. Total loans and securities at banks
7.5
5.2
5.8
.1
.9
1.4
2714.1
2.
4.1
9.4
6.5
11.6
3.3
-2.5
627.2
Securities
3.
U.S. government securities
10.0
15.4
7.8
16.0
11.8
.3
452.0
4.
Other securities
-6.7
-4.4
3.1
.7
-18.1
-9.5
175.2
8.5
3.9
5.6
-3.3
.3
2.6
2086.9
6.9
4.9
.9
-2.4
-2.6
5.7
652.5
13.3
9.3
6.4
3.4
8.1
4.8
823.9
-. 8
3.1
3.2
-. 3
-2.8
380.3
5.
Total loans
6.
Business loans
7.
Real estate loans
8.
Consumer loans
6.3
9.
Security loans
3.8
-20.4
88.4
-75.7
-47.3
-43.5
39.9
Other loans
1.5
-6.5
8.3
-28.7
-6.3
3.8
190.3
10.
--------- Short- and Intermediate-Term Business Credit ---------11.
Business loans net of bankers acceptances
12.
Loans at foreign branches2
13
Sum of lines 11 6 12
14.
Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms
15.
sum of lines 13 & 14
16.
Bankers acceptances: related '
17.
7.0
1.1
-3.0
-2.6
5.2
-5.0
28.8
80.7
25.2
19.8
6.5
2.0
-.2
50.3
-1.6
5.8
-24.1
644.7 24.7
669.4 151.0
31.2
9.3
16.8
10.0
5.6
4.6
6.1
-9.8
-27.6
-19.9
12.1
n.a.
30.0
9.8
5.0
3.5
7.8
2.5
n.a.
850.5
n.a.
286.8'
8.7
19.0 2.2
.3
820.4
U.S, trade
s
Line 15 plus bankers acceptances:
U.S. trade related 18.
Finance company loans to business
10.6
15.4
20.7
17.1
10.6
19.
Total short- and intermediateterm business credit (sum of lines 17 & 18)
10.0
7.5
7.6
10.1
4.6
n.a.
1137.3
s
1. Average of Wednesdays. 2. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 4. Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. 5. October data. p--preliminary. n.a.--not available
-14SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (percent) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1989 March highs
1990 Dec lows
Aug FOMC highs Nov 13
Change from:
Dec 13
Dec 89 lows
Aug 90 FOMC highs Nov 13
Short-term rates Federal funds 2
9.85
8.45
8.21
7.88
7.43
-1.02
-0.78
-0.45
Treasury bills 3 3-month 6-month 1-year
9.09 9.11 9.05
7.53 7.29 7.11
7.59 7.51 7.45
7.04 7.04 6.84
6.83 6.71 6.67
-0.70 -0.58 -0.44
-0.76 -0.80 -0.78
-0.21 -0.33 -0.17
Commercial paper 1-month 3-month
10.05 10.15
8.51 8.22
8.10 8.05
7.86 7.87
7.76 7.48
-0.75 -0.74
-0.34 -0.57
-0.10 -0.39
Large negotiable CDs 1-month 3-month 6-month
10.07 10.32 10.08
8.52 8.22 8.01
8.14 8.18 8.25
7.86 7.96 7.89
7.77 7.53 7.44
-0.75 -0.69 -0.57
-0.37 -0.65 -0.81
-0.09 -0.43 -0.45
Eurodollar deposits 4 1-month 3-month
10.19 10.50
8.38 8.25
8.13 8.19
7.81 7.94
7.81 7.56
-0.57 -0.69
-0.32 -0.63
0.00 -0.38
Bank prime rate
11.50
10.50
10.00
10.00
10.00
-0.50
0.00
0.00
(constant maturity) 9.88 7.69 9.53 7.77 9.31 7.83
8.50 9.05 9.17
7.70 8.37 8.52
7.42 7.98 8.14
-0.27 0.21 0.31
-1.08 -1.07 -1.03
-0.28 -0.39 -0.38
Intermediate- and long-term rates U.S. Treasury 3-year 10-year 30-year
Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer)
7.95
7.28
7.80
7.53
7.28
0.00
-0.52
-0.25
Corporate--A utility recently offered
10.47
9.29
10.50
10.10
9.85
0.56
-0.65
-0.25
Home mortgage rates' S&L fixed-rate S&L ARM, 1-yr.
11.22 9.31
9.69 8.34
10.29 8.39
10.09 8.09
9.81 8.04
0.12 -0.30
-0.48 -0.35
-0.28 -0.05
1989 Record highs
Date
Lows Jan 3
1990
Percent change from:
FOMC Nov 13 Dec 13
Record highs
1989 lows
FOMC Nov 13
21.90 16.18 0.48 -1.86 13.74
3.11 3.89 3.77 5.28 4.17
Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial 2999.75 201.13 NYSE Composite 397.03 AMEX Composite NASDAQ (OTC) 485.73 3523.47 Wilshire
7/16/90 2144.64 2535.40 2614.36 154.98 173.31 180.06 7/16/90 10/10/89 305.24 295.56 306.71 10/9/89 378.56 352.87 371.50 10/9/89 2718.59 2968.18 3092.10
One-day quotes except as noted. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for the maintenance period ending December 12, 1990.
-12.85 -10.48 -22.75 -23.52 -12.24
3/ 4/
Secondary market. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5/ Based on one-day Thursday quotes and futures market index changes. 6/ Quotes for week ending Friday closest to date shown.
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1990, December 17). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19901218_part1
@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19901218_part1,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
year = {1990},
month = {Dec},
howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19901218_part1},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}