greenbooks · July 2, 1991

Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

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CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC

June 28, 1991

SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Personal income and outlays. . . Probability of expansion . . . . Revised greensheets. . . . . . .

. . .

. . . . . . . . .

IfI II If

Tables . . . . . . . . . . . Personal income . Real personal consumption expenditures Recent data on coincident indicators . Revised greensheets. . . . . . . . . . .

Composite index of leading indicators. . . Probability of expansion . . . . . . . . .

S 3 S 3 . 4 .6-11

. . . .

. . . . . .

. .

THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Tables

Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial bank credit and short- and . . . . . . . intermediate-term business credit .. . Selected financial market quotations . . .. .

. . . . .

THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Prices of imports and exports .

Erratum .

. .

. . .

. .

. . . . . . . .

. .

. . . . . . . . .

Table Import and export price measures

SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Personal Income and Outlays Personal income increased $23.8 billion at an annual rate in May. A rise in private wages and salaries, which accompanied the increases last month in employment and hours, accounted for more than half of the gain.

While personal interest and farm proprietors' income fell

again in May, nonfarm proprietors' income rose for the fourth consecutive month.

In real terms, disposable personal income rose

$10 billion in May, more than offsetting a $5.1 billion decline in April.

But with increases in outlays outpacing gains in income, the

personal saving rate fell back to 3.6 percent in May, from its upward revised level of 4.0 percent in April. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.9 percent in May.

Outlays for durable goods rose 2.4 percent, in part because of a

4.0 percent increase in expenditures for motor vehicles.

Nondurable

goods outlays increased 0.6 percent, with gains being recorded in most major components except gasoline and oil.

Expenditures for service

items rose 0.6 percent in May, as unusually warm weather pushed outlays for electricity up 9-1/4 percent.

Excluding energy items,

spending on services rose a modest 0.2 percent; the gain in this category was held down by declines in the personal business and net foreign travel components of spending. Probability of Expansion The Commerce Department's composite index of leading economic indicators rose 0.8 percent in May--its fourth consecutive monthly increase.

Initial claims, manufacturers' new orders, and building

permits accounted for almost all of the increase in May.

A decline in

the index of consumer expectations provided some offset, while other components were little changed.

The May reading implies a 95 percent

probability that a cyclical trough has alreay occurred or is imminent (chart). The composite index of coincident economic indicators edged up 0.2 percent in May, the first gain posted by the index since July 1990.

All of the available components of the index rose last month,

providing further evidence that the economy has bottomed out. Revised Greensheets The following pages show revised versions of the greensheets, which incorporate the Commerce Department's final estimate of GNP for the first quarter of 1991.

These data were in line with our

expectations and did not necessitate modifications to the forecast for subsequent quarters.

-3-

PERSONAL INCOME (Average monthly change at an annual rate; billions of dollars) 1990

1991

1990

Mar.

Apr.

May

Total personal income

20.5

15.2

2.4

17.1

4.7

23.8

Wages and salaries Private

10.9 8.2

2.1 -.2

-2.7 -6.6

3.7 1.3

4.6 4.1

15.7 14.4

Other labor income

1.3

1.0

Proprietors' income Farm

2.1 .5

4.9 4.8

1.9 1.9

12.6 11.5

-3.3 -5.2

2.0 -1.3

Rent Dividend Interest

.7 .7 1.6

-. 6 .6 .5

-1.1 -. 6 -3.2

-. 2 -2.3 -3.2

.3 -. 1 -2.0

.7 .4 -1.0

Transfer payments

5.2

6.7

9.6

5.6

4.5

6.1

Less: Personal contributions for social insurance

1.1

2.5

1.1

4.0

1.9

-2.0

1.0

2.0

1.4

16.5

13.2

4.3

16.1

2.7

22.4

-. 8

-1.1

-4.8

10.3

-5.1

10.0

Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Memo: Real disposable income

1991

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (Percent change from the preceding period)

1990

1991

-Annual ratePersonal consumption expenditures

1991 Mar.

Apr.

May

----Monthly rate----

-3.4

-1.5

1.1

-. 6

Durable goods Excluding motor vehicles

-1.8 -1.1

-12.3 -5.8

-11.7 -.8

3.8 .2

-3.6 -. 4

2.4 1.3

Nondurable goods Excluding gasoline

-2.4 -2.3

-6.5 -7.3

-1.8 -1.3

.5 .4

-. 8 -. 7

.6 .8

Services Excluding energy

2.5 3.1

1.8 1.8

2.1 3.2

.6 .3

.4 .5

.6 .2

Memo: Personal saving rate (percent)

4.6

4.2

3.6

4.0

3.6

RECENT DATA ON COINCIDENT INDICATORS

~ ~

1990 1990

----

Dec. Industrial production

(index)

Capacity utilization

1991

Jan.

I-

Feb.

Mar.

1991

Apr.

May

107.2

106.6

105.7

105.0

105.3

105.8

(percent)

80.6

80.0

79.1

78.4

78.5

78.7

Total civilian employment

(millions)

117.6

116.9

116.8

117.4

116.6

Nonfarm civilian employment

(millions)

114.3

113.8

113.7

114.2

113.3

Nonfarm payroll employment

(millions)

109.6

109.4

109.2

108.9

108.7

108.8

Nonfarm payroll hours

(billions)

203.3

200.8

201.2

200.4

199.5

200.4

Personal income

(billions $82)

3400.2

3366.9

3366.5

3378.7

3372.4

3382.1

Disposable income

(billions $82)

2883.5

2857.8

2858.9

2869.2

2864.1

2874.1

Personal income less transfer payments

(billions $82)

2883.2

2838.3

2837.0

2845.2

2837.2

2843.7

Retail sales

(billions)

149.8

147.8

151.1

151.5

150.9

152.5

Retail sales

(billions $82)

118.8

117.1

119.7

120.3

119.8

120.6

PCE

(billions $82)

2672.8

2643.1

2660.1

2688.0

2670.7

2694.3

Manufacturing and trade sales

(billions)

534.4

527.1

527.9

523.1

529.6

Manufacturing and trade sales

(billion $82)'

461.2

457.1

459.1

457.0

464.0

129.3

127.3

126.6

126.0

Composite coincident index

1. Components of composite coincident index. Note: Low values reached by indicators since July 1990 are in bold.

126.2

6/28/91

-5COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS

Percent change 6

1 I

I I I It 1970

1 I4

I 1976

1979

I 11i II I

1973

I I

I- I-, 1I 1--h -- ! 1982

1-- I I 1985

I-I

- f

t- '--

1988

1991

PROBABILITY OF EXPANSION *

1990

1970

1973

1976

1979

I I I I I I 1 I

I I I I I I I I

1982

1985

1988

*Each probability represents the likelihood that an expansion has began or will begin during the next three months.

1991

4 4

-6-

June 28, CONFIDENTIAL - FR CLASS II FOMC

1991

STAFF GNP PROJECTIONS Percent changes,

annual rate

GHP fixed-weight

Nominal GNP

price index

Real GNP

Consumer

Price Index <1>

6/28/91 5/8/91 5/8/91 6/28/91 5/8/91 6/28/91 5/8/91 6/28/91 -- - - - - - - - - -- "" ----- - -'- - " -- " - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -

Unemployment rate (percent)

5/8/91 6/28/91 - - - - -- - - - -

Annual changes: 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

<2> <2> <2>

7. 6. 5. 3. 6.

Quarterly changes: 1989

01 Q2 03 04

<2> <2> <2> <2>

7. 5. 5. 3-

02 Q3 04 1991

01 <2> Q2 Q3 Q4

1992

3.6 1.6 1.7 .3

5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3

1.7 .4 1.4 -1.6

5.3 5.3 5.6 5.9

-2.8

6.5

-. 2

6.8

4.1 4.0

6.8

6.6

6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2

6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3

01 Q2 03 04

Two-quarter changes: <3> 1989

Q2 <2> 04 <2>

6.7 4.5

2.6 1.0

4.7 3.4

.0 .0

1990

02 <2> 04 <2>

5.9 3.1

1.1 -.1

5.3 4.4

.0 .6

1991

Q2 04

2.8 7.4

2.8 7.8

-1.3 4.4

4.2 3.5

.9 -. 2

1992

02 04

6.6 5.3

6.6 5.6

3.0 2.5

3.6 3.0

3.8 3.3

-. 3 -. 1

-. 2 -. 1

-. 5 .0 .6 .7 -. 4

-. 5 .0 .6 .7 -. 3

-1.5 4.0 3.3 2.7

3.7 3.1

3.8 3.5

Four-quarter changes: <4> 1988 1989 '90 1 2 <1> <2> <3> <4>

04 <2> Q4 <2> Q4 <2> Q4 Q4

7.8 5.6 4.5 5.1 5.9

7.8 5.6 4.5 5.3 6.1

3.5 1.8 .5 1.2 3.0

For all urban consumers. Actual. Percent change from two quarters earlier. Percent change from four quarters earlier.

June 28, 1991 CONFIDENTIAL - FR CLASS II FOMC

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Seasonally adjusted; annual rate) Projection S Units

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

IBillions of $ IBillions of 82$ F I (Percent change*I

3772.2 3501.4

4014.9 3618.7

4231.6 3717.9

4515.6 3845.3

4873.7 4016.9

5200.8 4117.7

5465.1 4157.3

5673.0 4160.6

6048.3 4293.5

5.1 6.4

3.6 4.3

1.9 2.1

5.0 4.2

3.5 2.6

1.8 1.1

.5 -.5

1.5 1.4

2.8 3.0

4.7 5.6

4.6 4.6

2.7 2.9

3.1 2.5

4.5 4.0

1.7 1.2

1.6 -.1

.6 .6

2.4 3.5

4.1 10.8 2.3 3.5

4.6 7.0 3.3 5.0

3.8 11.5 2.9 2.1

2.3 -1.2 1.3 4.1

4.1 9.3 2.4 3.7

1.2 -1.4 .6 2.4

.1 -1.8 -2.4 2.5

1.6 1.3 .2 2.7

2.8 4.1 2.0 2.9

Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures Residential structures

13.8 14.9 11.8 6 .1

3.7 4.6 1.9 5.8

-5.5 .4 -17.7 11.6

6.1 .8.2 .8 -2.2

5.3 8.2 -2.7 -.1

4.5 5.4 1.7 -7.1

2.2 4.6 -5.4 -10.2

-3.8 -2.8 -7.5 -1.2

5.9 8.6 -4.0 8.8

Exports Imports

5.9 17.4

-2.4 4.5

10.6 10.0

19.8 10.4

14.0 5.5

10.1 4.5

5.8 -. 5

3.5 2.5

6.0 7.5

Government purchases Federal Defense State and local

7.9 13.0 6.5 4.4

8.6 13.3 7.1 4.9

3.1 .5 6.0 5.2

2.0 1.5 4.0 2.3

1.1 -1.6 -1.8 3.1

.3 -2.8 -2.1 2.6

3.8 5.2 4.0 2.7

-.4 -.5 -2.5 -.4

-1.0 -4.5 -7.6 1.6

62.3 57.8 -84.0

9.1 13.4 -104.3

5.6 8.0 -129.7

22.8 28.7 -118.5

23.6 26.5 -75.9

23.8 18.7 -54.1

-3.6 -5.1 -33.8

-13.5 -15.6 -.6

29.1 26.8 -10.1

8.6

6.6

4.6

8.2

7.8

5.6

4.5

5.3

6.1

94.5 7.5

97.5 7.2

99.5 7.0

102.2 6.2

105.5 5.5

108.4 5.3

110.3 5.5

109.2 6.7

4.7 80.4

1.9 79.5

1.4 79.0

6.5 81.4

4.5 83.9

1.1 83.9

.3 82.3

.6 78.1

4.3 79.3

1.77 10.35 7.92 2.43

1.74 11.03 8.22 2.82

1.81 11.44 8.22 3.22

1.62 10.23 7.06 3.18

1.49 10.65 7.55 3.10

1.38 9.89 7.06 2.83

1.19 9.53 6.92 2.61

1.01 8.69 6.31 2.38

1.15 9.43 6.85 2.58

Nominal personal income Real disposable income Personal saving rate

FPercent change*) [Percent change*I (Percent F

8.4 4.3 6.1

6.6 2.7 4.4

5.8 3.3 4.1

8.1 2.7 2.9

7.6 4.3 4.2

6.8 1.7 4.6

5.6 -.4 4.6

4.6 1.2 3.9

6.8 2.8 4.0

Corp. profits with IVA & CCAdj Profit share of GKP

Percent change* [Percent 1

.7.4 7.1

9.2 7.0

-5.6 6.7

17.4 6.8

8.2 6.9

-16.8 6.0

-.7 5.5

15.7 5.4

4.2 5.7

Federal govt. surplus/deficit State and local govt. surplus Exc. social insurance funds

FBillions of $

-169.6 64.6 19.8

-196.9 65.1 13.8

-206.9 62.8 5.6

-158.2 51.0 -8.3

-141.7 46.5 -16.4

-134.3 46.4 -19.9

-166.0 35.4 -34.0

-150.5 40.4 -32.1

-154.8 69.3 -6.8

3.4 3.7 3.3 4.2 5.0

2.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 4.3

2.6 2.6 2.5 1.3 3.9

3.0 3.8 4.5 4.5 4.3

4.1 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.5

3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.3

4.0 4.8 5.3 6.3 5.3

3.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 4.6

3.2 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.7

ECI hourly compensation

4.7

4.0

3.1

3.4

4.8

4.7

4.1

3.7

Nonfarm business sector Output per hour Compensation per hour Unit labor costs

1.5 4.2 2.6

1.6 4.6 3.0

1.3 4.9 3.6

2.3 3.7 1.4

1.8 4.2 2.3

-1.6 2.2 3.9

-.3 4.4 4.7

2.6 4.2 1.5

1.6 3.8 2.2

EXPENDITURES ----------

Nominal GNP Real GNP Real GNP Gross domestic purchases Final sales Private dom. final purchases

( I

Personal consumpt'ion expend. Durables Nondurables Services

Change in business inventories Nonfarm Net exports Nominal GhP

Billions of 825$ Billions of 8251 IBillions of 82$1 I I IPercent change*t

EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION Nonfarm payroll employment Unemployment rate

FMillions

Industrial production index Capacity utilization rate-mfg.

]Percent

Housing starts Auto sales Domestic Foreign

Millions Millions IMillions IMillions

IPercent

(Percent

change*l 1

110.9 6.4

INCOME AND SAVING *-----------------I

PRICES AND COSTS GNP implicit deflator GNP fixed-weight price index Cons. & fixed invest, prices CPI Exc, food and energy

Percent change*F

* Percent changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter.

-8June 28, 1991 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Seasonally adjusted; annual rate)

CONFIDENTIAL - FR CLASS II FOMC

S1988

1989

Units

1990

------------------------------

------------------

EXPENDITURES Nominal GNP Real GNP

Billions of $ 4735.8 Billions of 82$1 3970.2

Real GNP Gross domestic purchases

Percent Change

4831.4 4005.8

4917.9 4032.1

5009.8 4059.3

5101.3 4095.7

5174.0 4112.2

5238.6 4129.7

5289.3 4133.2

5375.4 4150.6

5443.3 4155.1

5.1 1.6

3.6 3.0

2.7 3.2

2.7 2.4

3.6 1.2

1.6 1.8

1.7 2.8

.3 -1.2

1.7 .5

.4 1.3

7.1 6.7

5.1 4.8

1.1 3.0

4.6 1.7

2.4 .8

1.7 1.4

1.8 4.1

.9 -1.5

3.8 2.4

-.7 -1.2

6.9 21.8 2.6

2.7 3.7 2.0 2.9

3.5 -1.1 4.1 4.5

3.5 14.1 1.2 1.9

-.3 -6.0 .6 .9

1.3 5.6 -1.7 2.1

4.6 9.6 3.9 3.5

-.8 -13.0 -.2 3.1

1.1 14.4 -3.2 .1

.2 -9.5 -1.9 5.1

11.4 20.3 -10.5 I -6.8

15.7 17.9 9.9 6.8

1.6 2.2 -.3 .4

-6.3 -5.5 : -8.7 -.4

8.9 9.5 7.5 -3.6

6.9 12.2 -8.2 -11.3

6.3 6.1 7.1 -7.6

-3.8 -5.2 1.3 -5.5

5.0 5.7 2.3 15.1

-4.7 -3.3 -9.0 -11.2

31.7 .5

4.4 .3

5.4 9.2

16.7 12.4

15.8 -2.3

12.4 12.8

-. 5 6.4

13.5 1.7

11.2 2.5

-5.0 .7

-9,2 -24.1 -5.6 3.9

3.3 3.5 -1.4 3.2

-3.8 -10.4 -5.0 1.2

15.7 33.6 4.9 4.3

-3.3 -9.1 -10.9 1.3

4.0 7.0 3.2 1.8

-2.4 -7.9 7.2 1.8

3.0 -. 4 -7.0 5.6

2.9 .4 -1.7 4.8

6.2 16.4 3.3 -.6

31.0 28.8 -77.3

16.9 19.2 -72.2

32.6 31.0 -78.5

14.0 27.2 -75.7

26.1 16.4 -51.1

25.5 21.5 -53.3

24.6 21.7 -64.1

18.9 15.3 -47.9

-2.2 -8.2 -35.4

9.5 11.6 -44.6

7.8

8,3

7.4

7.7

7.5

5.8

5.1

3.9

6.7

5.1

I 104.3 5.7

105.1 5.5

105.9 5.5

106.8 5.3

107.6 5.2

108,1 5.3

108.5 5.3

109.0 5.3

109.7 5.3

Final sales Private dom. final purchases Personal consumption expend. Durables Nondurables Services

I I 15.6

Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures Residential structures

I 1 I

Exports Imports Government purchases Federal Defense State and local Change in business inventories Nonfarm et exports

[Billions of 82$1 IBillions of 82$1 [Billions of 82$1

Nominal GNP

[Percent change

EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION Nonfarm payroll employment Unemployment rate

[Millions IPercent*

Industrial production index Capacity utilization rate-mfg.

(Percent IPercent*

5.0 83.1

4.2 83.6

5.9 84.3

2.8 84.6

2.7 84.7

2.8 84.5

-1.2 83.7

.2 82.9

.6 82.7

4.2 82.8

Housing starts Auto sales Domestic Foreign

IMillions IMillions [Millions [Millions

1.43 10.91 7.60 1 1 3.30

1.49 10.67 7.50 3.17

1.48 10.15 7.20 2.95

1.55 10.88 7.89 2.99

1.46 10.03 7.08 2.95

1.36 10.26 7.26 3.00

1.35 10.20 7.36 2.84

1.35 9.09 6.56 2.53

1.43 10.01 7.11 2.90

1.20 9.53 6.78 2.75

change

110.2 5.3

INCOME AND SAVING Nominal personal income Real disposable income Personal saving rate

[Percent change I IPercent change IPercent*

6.4 7.3 4.0

8.6 2.7 4.1

8.1 4.9 4.5

7.4 2.3 4.1

11.6 4.2 5.2

5,8 -1.2 4.6

3.7 2.7 4.1

6.2 1.2 4.6

8.6 2.5 4.9

5.3 .3 5.0

Corp. profits with IVA & CCAdj Profit share of GNP

(Percent change J [Percent* 1

9.5 7.0

6.6 7.0

-1.7 6.8

19.5 7.0

-23.2 6.4

-7.0 6.2

-17.1 5.9

-19.1 5.5

8.4 5.5

13.9 5.6

Federal govt. surplus/deficit State and local govt. surplus Exc. social insurance funds

IBillions

1 -153.7 1 45.5 -15.6

-136.9 48.3 -14.1

-120.1 46.8 -17.0

-156.3 45.2 -19.0

-132.6 48.9 -16.2

-122.7 50.3 -15.6

-131.7 48.1 -18.7

-150.1 38.5 -29.1

-168.3 38.1 -30.2

2.7 3.9 2.9 3.2 4.1

4.4 4.1 4.9 4.5 4.7

4.7 5.5 4.5 5.2 4.6

4.7 4.4 5.0 4.4 4.6

3.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.9

3.9 4.6 5.3 6.0 4.2

3.2 3.1 2.3 3.3 3.8

3.8 3.8 4.6 3.9 4.7

4.8 6.6 6.8 7.5 5.9

4.7 3.9 2.6 3.8 4.9

5.2

3.8

5.1

4.2

4.9

5.3

4.4

5.6

5.1

4.7 2.4 -2.2

-.5 5.1 5.7

2.8 5.3 2.5

.2 3.8 3.6

-2.7 3.3 6.1

-. 3 1,7 2.0

-1.0 1.6 2.6

-2.5 2.3 5.0

-1.3 3.9 5.3

.3 5.0 4.7

of $

[

-166.0 38.6 -30.4

PRICES AND COSTS GNP implicit deflator GNP fixed-weight price index Cons. & fixed invest, prices CPI Exc. food and energy

[Percent change

hourly compensation**

donfarm business sector Output per hour Compensation per hour Unit labor costs * Not at an annual rate. ** Private industry workers

June 28, CONFIDENTIAL - FR CLASS II FOMC

1991

GROSS NATIONAL PRODOCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Seasonally adjusted; annual rate) Projection -------------------------------------"" " "

1990 S Units

1991 04

1992

03 Q3

EXPENDITUWES Nominal GSP PRal GNP

Billions of $ 5514.6 Billions of 82$1 4170.0

5527.3 4153.4

5557.7 4124.1

5603.3 4126.5

5713.2 4174.8

5817.9 4217.2

5920.9 4251.5

6007.8 4280.3

6090.9 4307.8

6173.4 4334.3

Real GSP

IPercent Change

1.4

-1.6

-2.8

4.8

4.1

3.3

2.7

2.6

2.5

Gross domestic purchases

1.6

-5.1

-4.3

1.6

4.1

4.4

3.6

3.1

2.6

2.8

1.9 2.3

1.4 -3.8

-2.9-5.1

.9 2.4

2.7 2.6

1.7 2.9

2.1 3.4

2.3 3.5

2.7 3.6

2.4 3.5

2.7 2.6 2.3

-3.4 -12.3 -6.5

3.4 7.7 .3

2.2 5.2 1.2

2.5 5.0 1.2

3.0 6.5 1.8

2.8 3.5 2.2

2.7 3.4 2.1

2.7 3.0 2.1

3.0

1.8

2.1

4.1

2.0

2.5

2.7

2.9

I I

8.9 10.2 5.1 -19.8

.1 6.3 -18.2 -20.6

-16.3 -18.4 -9.0 -25.3

-2.8 -1.8 -6.1 3.7

1.5 4.6 -8.3 12.1

3.5 6.5 -6.5 9.6

4.4 7.6 -6.6 8.2

5.9 8.8 -4.7 9.1

6.5 9.0 -3.0 9.6

6.8 9.0 -1.9 8.3

final sales Private dom.

final

purchases

Personal consumption expend. Durables Nondurables Services

Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures Residential structures

1 1

Exports Imports

-1.0

6.4

8.2

6.3

6.1

5.7

5.8

-8.8

7.7

1.9

10.4

8.5

8.1

5.9

7.6

4.7 4.6 12.1 4.9

-1.3 -. 5 2.7 -1.9

1.5 4.2 -1.3 -. 4

-. 4 -. 8 -3.7 -. 1

-1.4 -4.6 -7.5 .9

-1.4 -4.7 -7.8 1.1

-1.1 -4.6 -7.7 1.5

-. 9 -4.4 -7.5 1.7

-. 7 -4.5 -7.6 2.0

-26.4 -28.5 -8.8

-25.0 -28.1 7.1

-31.8 -33.9 -6.7

-10.8 -11.9 .3

13.4 11.6 -3.0

25.6 23.3 -6.6

30.5 28.2 -10.0

29.7 27.4 -10.3

30.4 28.1 -13.5

2.2

3.3

8.1

7.5

7.3

6.0

5.6

5.5

110.2 5.6

109.8 5.9

109.2 6.5

108.8 6.8

109.1 6.8

109,7 6.6

110.2 6.5

110.7 6.4

111.1 6.4

111.5 6.3

6.9 I

7.6

Government purchases Federal Defense State and local

1.2 1 2.7 2.0

Change in business inventories Nonfarm %et exports

IBillions of 82$1 IBillions of 82$1 IBillions of 8251

4.7 4.7 -46.5

IPercent change 1

5.3

ainal GtP

-1.5 -11.7 -1.8

11.0 -11.8

SMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION ------------------------Nonfarm payroll employment Unemployment rate

Industrial production index Capacity utilization rate-mfg.

IPercent change 1 IPercent* I

3.9 82.9

-7.0 80.8

-9.6 78.0

.0 77.4

7.2 78.2

5.7 78.7

5.1 79.0

4.8 79.3

3.8 79.4

3.7 79.5

Mousing starts Auto sales Domestic Foreign

Millions Millions IMillions Millions

1.13 9.68 7,21 2.47

1.04 8.93 6.59 2.34

.92 8.25 6.00 2.25

.99 8.43 6.06 2.37

1.05 8.96 6.55 2.41

1.07 9.15 6.65 2.50

1.11 9.35 6.80 2.55

1.13 9.40 6.83 2.57

1.16 9.45 6.86 2.59

1.19 9.50 6.90 2.60

5.0 -.7 4.2

3.5 -3.5 4.2

1.5 -1.5 4.2

4.2 1.8 3.9

5.4 1.3 3.7

7.3 3.2 3.9

8.4 3.9 4.1

6.3 2.4 4.0

6.2 2.4 4.0

6.5 2.6 4.0

-7.5 5.5

-14.8 5.2

-3.7 5.1

-4.2 5.1

57.4 5.6

23.3 5.7

12.5 5.8

.3 5.7

-1.4 5.6

5.8 5.6

I -145.7 1 39.3 -30.5

-184.3 25.7 -44.8

-126.9 30.0 -41.0

-155.2 33.6 -38.4

-148.4 44.2 -28.7

-171.5 53.7 -20.1

-169.1 61.3 -13.4

-157.8 66.9 -8.7

-146.3 72.1 -4.4

-146.0 76.9 -.5

3.7 4.2 5.4 7.0 6.1

2.8 4.7 6.4 6.9 4.2

5.2 5.2 3.1 3.6 6.8

3.0 3.1 2.6 2.2 3.2

3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1

3.3 3.5 3.5 3.8 4.1

3.8 4.1 3.5 4.1 4.3

3.2 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.7

3.0 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5

4.3

3.8

4.6

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

.6 4.7 4.1

-. 7 3.9 4.7

.3 4.0 3.7

3.5 4.5 1.0

4.4 4.2 -. 2

2.3 3.9 1.6

1.8 4.3 2.5

1.6 3.7 2.1

1.5 3.6 2.1

1.4 3.6 2.2

I IMillions IPercent*

I 1

INCOME AND SAVING Nominal personal income Real disposable income Personal saving rate

IPercent change IPercent change 1

(Percent* 1

Corp. profits with IVA & CCAdj Profit share of GNP

Percent change 1 IPercent*

Federal govt. surplua/deficit State and local govt. surplus Exc. social insurance funds

IBillions of $ 1

PRICES AND COSTS GNP implicit deflator GNP fixed-weight price index Cons. & fixed invest. prices CPI Exc. food and energy

IPercent change I I

ECI hourly compensation**

>nfarm

business sector Output per hour Compensation per hour Unit labor costs

* Not at an annual rate.

** Private industry workers

I I I

June 28,

1991

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Net changes, billions of 1982 dollars)

CONFIDENTIAL - FR CLASS II FOMC

I 1988 01 S

1989

1990

1 1987

1988

S(fourth

quarter to fourth quarter, not change)

1989

1990

4.5 13.7

187.1

138.6

73.9

20.2

163.0

103.0

46.1

-18.9

Real GNP Gross domestic purchases

49.5 15.5

35.6 30.5

26.3 32.6

27.2 24.4

36.4 11.8

16.5 18.7

17.5 28.3

3.5 -12.7

17.4 4.9

Final sales Private dom. final purchases

66.9 51.8

49.7 38.3

10.6 24.4

45.7 14.2

24.4 6.5

17.0 11.4

18.5 34.1

9.3

38.4

-7,2

117.9

-12.9

20.2

-10.3

78.5

172.9 128.7

69.2 39.1

Personal consumption expend. Durables Nondurables Services

42.6

17.3 3.8

22.3 -1.1

22.4 13.9

-2.1 -6.6

8.6 5.8

30.0 9.9

-5.4

7.4

4.4

9.1

2.7

1.4

-3.9

8.8

-5.9 5.9

-7.5 -21.8

9.1

14.2

6.0

3.0

6.7

11.3

104.6 36.4 21.9 46.4

3.7

14.5

56.4 -4.9 11.7 49.6

31.1

-15.0

31.0

32.9

Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures Residential structures

12.7 16.0

17.6 14.9

2.0 2.0 -.1 .2

-8.0 -5.2 -2.8 -.2

10.5 8.4 2.2 -1.8

8.4 10.9 -2.6 -5.7

26.6 25.6 1.0 -4.5

24.3

21.8

27.7 -3.4

19.8

12.1 -10.8 22.9 24.6 20.8 -3.7

change in business inventories Nonfarm Farm Net exports Exports Imports Government purchases Federal Defense Nondefense State and local

19.8 5.7 17.1

-3.4 -3.4 -17.4 -26.6 9.1 34.0 34.7 .7

2.9 3.2 -14.1 -9.6 -4.5 5.1 5.6 .5

-18.9

6.3

-23.2 -3.8

2.8

-19.4 4.3

3.7 3.5

-. 9

15.7 11.8 3.9 -6.3 7.0 13.3

-18.6 -3.8 -14.8 2.8 21.0 18.2 28.7 23.9 3.1 20.8 4.8

1.5 I

-10.8

-.4 10.0

-7.4 .4

-4.4 16.6

7.8 5.7 2.1 -3.7

-4.9

6.2

-6.2

-5.2 .4 -2.6

5.4 .7 6.5

-3.3 -2.9 -5.5

-. 6 5.1 -5.7

-. 9 .2 -1.1

-5.7 -6.4 .7

-2.2 17.1 19.2

-10.8 -.7 10.1

16.2 19.1 2.8

-4.8 -6.9 4.5 -11.4 2.1

6.0 -. 3

-4.7 4.4 6.3

-21.1 -23.5 2.4

11.7 19.8 -8.1

69.2

-34.4

66.3

-28.2

3.0

-6.3

12.5 16.5 4.1

-9.2 -8.0 1.2

24.1 80.5 56.4

12.3 12.9 2.1

15.3

10.8 -. 7

2.1 -13.8

4.9 -11.9 16.8

65.4 -3.8

11.0 17.7 -6.7 -18.5 -45.3 -43.8 -1.5

35.6 68.3 32.7

27.8 56.3 28.4

39.1 35.6 -3.4

8.6

30.1 17.2 10.2 7.0 12.9

5.3 10.2 -4.9

-5.4 -4.9 -. 5

2.3 -9.6 -5.6 -4.0

10.0

13.9

12.0

June 28,

CONFIDENTIAL - FR

1991

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Net changes, billions of 1982 dollars)

CLASS II FOMC

Projection

I.-------------------------------------------------------

1990

--------------------

1991

-----------S 03 04

---------------------------01 Q2

1992 Q3

.---------------------------Q1 Q2

1989

1990

1991

1992

(fourth quarter to fourth quarter, net change)

IReal GNP Gross domestic purchases

14.9 16.8

-16.6 -54.3

-29.3 -45.2

2.4 16.1

48.3 41.3

42.3 45.7

34.3 37.9

28.9 32.3

27.5 27.9

26.4 29.6

73.9 46.1

20.2 -18.9

Final sales Private dom.

purchases

19.7 19.1

14.5 -32.8

-30.8 -44,0

9.3 20.0

27.3 21.1

18.0 24.4

22.2 28,7

24.0 29.6

28.3 30.5

25.7 30.3

69.2 39.1

Personal consumption expend. Durables Nondurables Services

18.0 2.7 5.2 10.0

-23.2 -13.9 -15.2 5.9

-9.9 -12.7 -4.1 7.0

22.0 7.6 .7 13.8

14.8 5.3 2.7 6.9

16.4 5.1 2.7 8.6

20.1 6.7 4.0 9.3

18.7 3.7 4.9 10.1

18.5 3.6 4.7 10.2

18.3 3.3 4.8 10.2

31.1 -5.9 5.9 31.0

3.7

43.3

Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures Residential structures

10.9 9.5 1.5 -9.8'

.1 6.1 -6.0 -9.7

-22.6 -20.0 -2.7 -11.5

-3.5 -1.7 -1.8 1.4

1.9 4.3 -2.4 4.5

4.3 6.1 -1.8 3.6

5.4 7.2 -1.8 3.2

7.3 8.5 -1.3 3.6

8.1 8.9 -.8 3.9

8;6 9.1 -.5 3.5

21.8 19.8 2.1 -13.8

Change in business inventories Nonfarm Farm

-4.8 -6.9 2.1

-31.1 -33.2 2.1

1.4 .4 1.0

-6.8 -5.8 -1.0

21.0 22.0 -1.0

24.3 23.5 .8

12.1 11.7 .4

4.9 4.9 .0

-. 8 -. 8 .0

.7 .7 .0

Net exports Exports Inports

-1.9 10.4 12.3

37.7 16.7 -21.0

15.9 .8 -15,0

-13.8 -1.6 12.1

7.0 10.1 3.1

-3.3 13.1 16.4

-3.6 10.3 13.8

-3.4 10.1 13.5

-. 4 9.7 10.0

Government purchases Federal Defense Nondefense State and local

2.5 .1 1.7 -1.6 2.4

9.6 3.9 7.5 -3.6 5.7

-2.7 -.4 1.8 -2.2 -2.3

3.1 3.6 -.9 4.5 -.5

-.8 -.7 -2.5 1.8 -. 1

-3.0 -4.1 -5.1 1.0 1.1

-2.9 -4.2 -5.2 1.0 1.3

-2.2 -4.0 -5.0 1.0 1.8

-1.8 -3.8 -4.8 1.0 2.0

final

--- 63.8 57.9

117.1 127.7

65.4

23.9

-3,8

21.5

100.2 119.1

-7.5 -

5.3

-21.8 32.9

1.9 36.2

11.0 17.7

75.6 17.3 18.5 39.8

-6.7

-19.9 -11.3 -8.7

-16.5

-2.0

4.9 -11.9 16.8

-45.3 -43.8 -1.5

39.9 40.1 -. 2

-3.2 9.9 13.1

27.8 56.3 28.4

39.1 35.6 -3,4

5.8 22.3 16.5

-10.5 39.9 50.5

-1.4 -3.8 -4.8 1.0 2.4

2.3 -9.6 -5.6

30.1 17.2 10.2 7,0 12.9

-3.4 -1.6 -6.7 5.1 -1.8

-8.3 -15.8 -19.8 4.0 7.5

-4.0 12.0

16.9 16.5 .4

-12MONETARY AGGREGATES (based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted)

Growth 19901

1991 Q1

1991 Q2pe

1991 Apr

1991 May

1991 04 90Jun pe Jun 91pe

------------ Percent change at annual rates--------------------1. 2. 3.

4.2 3.8 1.7

MI H12 H3

5.9 3.4 4.0

7% 4% 2

13.7 4.6 0.8

-1.1 2.8 0.5

Levels

-----------

Percent change at annual rates------------

bil. $ May 91

Selected components 4.

Ml-A

5. 6.

Currency Demand deposits

4.6

5.7

-4.0

7.3

543.5

11.0 -0.6

15.3 -2.5

4 44

-0.5 -5.6

0.9 12.6

4 9

256.8 278.7

Other checkable deposits

6.1

134

4.0

25.0

308.3

M2 minus MH1

2.6

4.2

1.6

2544.0

0.0

-26.0

-20

67.6

2.0 4.2 15.9 -7.3 2.5 22.3

3.0 6.2 17.1 -5.0 0.1 23.2

-1 9 18 1 -10 13

365.1 1212.9 611.2 601.6 897.5 358.1

-14.9

-Z5

539.4

-15.4

-11

777.8

9. 10. 11. 12. 13.

Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual fund shares Commercial banks 3 Savings deposits plus MMDAs Small time deposits

14. i.

Thrift institutions 3 Savings deposits plus MMOAs

Small time deposits

17. M3 minus M2

18. 19. 20. 21.

Large time deposits At commercial banks, net5 At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual fund shares

22.

Term RPs, NSA

23.

Term Eurodollars, NSA

3.0 11.0 9.9 7.5 12.4 -5.5 -2.2 -7.3

-42.3

18.2 8.2 7.5

-13k

6% 7½

8.9

164 -1½

-6.3 -0.7 -9.7

-1¼ 18k -13h -9%

-9.4

-6.4

6.7

-9.5 -3.5 -23.9

1.2 11.9 -32.1

-8 0 -35%

-11.3 -5.7 -31.2

-46.4

20.2 -12.0 -12.1

49.9 -32.8 7.9

-24%

30.4 -15.9 -43.8

4.9 -14.6 -38.5

-26

-9.2

-9.5

502.7 398.2 104.5

0.6

-16 -24 2

146.2 81.1 66.4

----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars---MEMORANDA:

24. Managed liabilities at commercial banks (25+26) 25. Large time deposits, gross 26. Nondeposit funds 27. Net due to related foreign institutions 7 Other 28. 29. U.S. government deposits at commercial bankss

-1.6 6.4 -8.0

-3%

-2.6 2.4.

-4½

-1.4 0.0 -1.4

2.2 0.2

-1.5 -6.5

-4 -h

0.6 -1.9

0.3

3.1

-3½

-12.1

-0.1

710.1 452.1 258.0

-3.4 1.2 -4.6

-6.6

-8 1

26.0 232.0

15.1

1. Amounts shown are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. 2. Nontransactions M2 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. 3. Commercial bank savings deposits excluding MMDAs grew during May and June at rates of 14.9 percent and 18 percent, respectively. At thrift institutions, savings deposits excluding MMOAs grew during May and June at rates of 18.7 percent and 12 percent, respectively. 4. The non-M2 component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. 5. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift institutions. s. Dollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money (including borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor items). Data are partially estimated. 8. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks. pe - preliminary estimate

-13-

COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT (Percentage changes at annual rates, based on seasonally adjusted data)

1989:Dec. to 1990:Dec.

1990 Q4

----------------------1.

Total loans and securities at banks

Securities

Mar.

1991 Apr.

Commercial Bank Credit

Levels bil.$ May

May

--------------------

5.3

2.3

4.0

6.7

-. 7

2750.0

8.6

12.5

25.7

10.9

7.3

658.9

U.S. government securities

13.9

3.7

15.0

34.8

19.3

13.8

484.9

Other securities

-3.1

-7.2

5.7

2.0

-11.5

-10.3

174.0

4.3

2.9

1.5

1.0

-3.3

-3.2

2091.1

Total loans

Business loans

1.9

3.0

-. 4

3.8

-7.9

-7.5

633.2

Real estate loans

9.5

6.1

3.4

3.5

4.5

4.9

854.7

Consumer loans

1.2

-2.6

-5.1

-3.5

-1.3

Security loans

4.4

-6.8

-17.7

-117.2

30.9

39.8

-2.4

-4.3

11.6

19.0

-28.9

-28.4

189.9

10.

Other loans

---------

373.5

Short- and Intermediate-Term Business Credit ----------

Business loans net of bankers

acceptances

1.9

12.

Loans at foreign branches2

13.

Sum of lines 11 & 12

14.

Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms

15.

Sum of lines 13 & 14

16.

Bankers acceptances: related '

17.

37.0

.4 -3.1

4.0 -9.2

4.3

-3.2

-5.0

4.2

2.8

-. 7

-9.6

17.8

-24.3

-69.5

3.6

3.4

-1.6

-.6

12.0

4.5

2.0

-.1

2.5 12.2

3.5

-3.2 2.2

-7.7 -46.5

-9.3

-8.0 -58.1 -9.9

627.1 23.6 650.6

12.9

-34.4

145.9

-5.2

-14.4

796.6

-58.3

-16.3

29.0

-7.3

-14.4

825.6

n.a.

294.4

n.a.

1132.95

U.S. trade

Line 15 plus bankers acceptances: U.S. trade related

18.

Finance company loans to business 3

19.

Total short- and intermediateterm business credit (sum of lines 17 & 18)

19.3

3.0

13.1

5.8

5.6

-5.2

Average of Wednesdays.

. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. -. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. . Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic snipment and storage of goods. -. Aril data. 'iminary.

ot available

-141 SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (percent) ----------------------------------------------------------------------

1989 March highs

1990 Dec lows

Aug highs

1991 FOMC May 14 Jun 27

Change from: -~-------"--~--------------------Aug 90 FOMC highs May 14

Short-term rates Federal funds 2

9.85

8.45

8.21

5.77

5.78

-2.43

0.01

9.09

7.53 7.29 7.11

7.59 7.45

5.49 5.62 5.75

5.55 5.73 5.94

-2.04

9.11 9.05

-1.51

0.06 0.11 0.19

Commercial paper 1-month 3-month

10.05 10.15

8.51 8.22

8.10 8.05

5.92 5.93

6.08 6.13

-2.02 -1.92

0.16 0.20

Large negotiable CDs 3 1-month 3-month 6-month

10.07 10.32 10.08

8.52 8.22 8.01

8.14 8.18 8.25

5.90 5.93 6.07

5.99 6.08 6.35

-2.15 -2.10 -1.90

0.09 0.15 0.28

Eurodollar deposits 4 1-month 3-month

10.19 10.50

8.38 8.25

8.13 8.19

5.81 5.94

5.94 6.13

-2.19 -2.06

0.13 0.19

Bank prime rate

11.50

10.50

10.00

8.50

-1.50

0.00

U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 3-year 9.88 7.69 10-year 9.53 7.77 30-year 9.31 7.83

8.50 9.05 9.17

7.13 8.14 8.36

7.43 8.32 8.49

-1.07 -0.73 -0.68

0.30 0.18 0.13

Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer)

Treasury bills 3-month 6-month 1-year

7.51

-1.78

Intermediate- and long-term rates

7.95

7.28

7.80

7.09

7.30

-0.50

0.21

Corporate--A utility recently offered

10.47

9.29

10.50

9.53

9.58

-0.92

0.05

Bome mortgage rates 6 S&L fixed-rate S&L ARM, 1-yr.

11.22 9.31

9.69 8.34

10.29 8.39

9.47 7.23

9.65 7.24

-0.64 -1.15

0.18 0.01

1989 Record highs

Date

Lows Jan 3

1991 FOMC May 14 Jun 27

Percent change from: Record highs

1989 lows

FOMC May 14

-3.31 -3.88 -9.47 -6.86 -4.40

36.85 33.08 17.75 25.80 31.22

1.67 0.62 -0.23 -2.57 0.12

Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial 3035.33 NYSE Composite 213.21 AMEX Composite 397.03 NASDAQ (OTC) 511.31 Wilshire 3731.48

6/3/91 2144.64 2886.85 2934.93 4/17/91 154.00 203.67 204.94 10/10/89 305.24 360.25 359.43 4/17/91 378.56 488.79 476.24 4/17/91 2718.59 3562.98 3567.32

One-day quotes except as noted. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for the maintenance period ending June 26, 1991.

3/ Secondary market. 4/ Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5/ Based on one-day Thursday quotes and futures market index changes. 6/ Quotes for week ending Friday closest to date shown.

-15-

THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Prices of Imports and Exports According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices of U.S. imports rose 0.2 percent in May, the first increase in seven months. The increase was led by a 2.9 percent rise in the index for prices of petroleum imports.

The index for prices of nonpetroleum imports

declined for the second consecutive month, after a string of eight monthly increases.

Further declines in the prices of imported capital

and consumer goods caused the drop in this index. The index for prices of U.S. exports decreased 0.3 percent in May.

The decrease was caused by a 1.1 percent fall in prices of

exported industrial supplies and materials, which continued its sevenmonth downward trend. categories

In contrast, the other four major export

(foods, capital goods, motor vehicles, and consumer goods)

each posted a slight increase in May. Erratum

Greenbook pages 1-31 and IV-16 incorrectly state that the Desk did not intervene during the intermeeting period. did intervene on one occasion.

In fact, the Desk

Late on May 17, the day Sweden

announced it would peg the krona to the ECU, the Desk sold $50 million against marks.

-16-

IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE MEASURES (percent change from previous period, annual rate) Year 1991-01 1990-Q1

Quarters 1990 1991 03 04 Q1 (Quarterly Average, AR)

Months 1991 Apr May (Monthly Rates)

---------------------BLS Prices --------------------Imports. Total Foods, Feeds, Bev. Industrial Supplies Ind Supp Ex Oil* Capital Goods Automotive Products Consumer Goods

3.3 3.7 2.8 0.4 4.8 3.6 2.7

10.2 7.4 31.7 -1.5 3.8 3.3 -0.3

24.9 5.2 77.1 2.7 8.2 10.3 4.5

-12.3 7.6 -41.0 -0.3 4.8 6.5 2.3

-0.7 0.8 -0.5 -0.6 -1.4 -0.7 -0.7

0.2 0.1 0.9 -0.1 -0.6 0.3 -0.2

7.0 3.0

134.1 1.8

307.2 6.3

-73.9 3.6

0.0 -0.7

2.9 -0.2

2.0 -3.9 1.8 3.1 2.7 3.6

1.7 -13.1 5.2 3.3 1.9 1.6

4.4 -16.5 15.9 2.1 3.5 3.7

0.6 8.5 -9.8 5.6 3.5 6.0

0.0 0.9 -1.1 0.3 -0.1 1.8

-0.3 0.1 -1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

-3.3 2.7

-11.9 3.9

-14.2 7.9

6.9 -0.7

1.0 -0.2

0.3 -0.3

Memo: Oil Non-oil

Exports. Total Foods, Feeds, Bev. Industrial Supplies Capital Goods Automotive Products Consumer Goods Memo: Agricultural Nonagricultural

------------ Prices in the GNP Accounts------------Fixed-Weight Imports, Total Oil Non-oil

-18.3 -75.0 4.0

2.8 3.2 2.7

15.8 135.7 3.9

34.4 346.2 5.3

2.1 -1.4 2.8

0.8 -10.1 3.1

5.7 -11.8 9.5

0.4 7.8 -1.0

Deflators Imports, Total Oil Non-oil

0.5 3.2 -0.8

11.3 135.2 2.1

27.1 345.0 0.6

-20.8 -75.0 -4.7

Exports, Total Ag Nonag

-0.3 -1.4 -0.1

-3.9 -10.1 -3.1

3.6 -11.8 5.6

-5.2 7.8 -6.6

Exports,

Total Ag Nonag

*/ Months not for publication.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1991, July 2). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19910703_part3

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19910703_part3,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1991},
  month = {Jul},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19910703_part3},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}