Greenbook/Tealbook
Prefatory Note
The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.
1
In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.
CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC
August 16, 1991
SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Industrial production and capacity Motor vehicle sales. . . . . . . . Consumer sentiment . . . . . . . . Housing markets . . . . . . . . . Real GNP in 1991:Q2 . . . . . . .
utilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . ..
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . .
Tables
Growth in selected components of industrial production Capacity utilization in manufacturing . . . . . . ... University of Michigan Survey Research Center: Survey of consumer attitudes . . . . . . . . . . . . Private housing activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Charts Private housing starts . Unemployment insurance .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . .
THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Senior financial officer and loan officer surveys. . Tables Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . Selected financial market quotations . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
11 12
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S. merchandise trade through June 1991 . .
. .
Table Merchandise trade: Census-based data. . . . . . . summary of months U.S. merchandise trade: and quarters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
13
SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization The index of industrial production rose 0.5 percent in July. During the past four months, the index has retraced nearly one-half of the decline that occurred between last September and March of this year.
Since April, rising output of motor vehicles, construction
supplies, and related materials have been major factors in the recovery of industrial production. Last month, a 10 percent rise in motor vehicle assemblies contributed 0.15 percentage point to the total increase in the index. Excluding motor vehicles, output of durable consumer goods declined because the production of appliances, which surged in June, fell back in July; nonetheless, the level of appliance output in July was about 9 percent above its low of last December.
In addition, production of
carpeting and furniture was flat in July after a strong showing in June.
The output of nondurable consumer goods edged up again in July,
mainly because of another gain in apparel production.
Production of
business equipment firmed a bit last month, although apart from the rise in motor vehicle assemblies and a surge in production of turbines, the gains were small. Production of construction supplies rose 0.6 percent in July, somewhat less than the average monthly gain of more than 1 percent in the preceding three months.
A further increase in the production of
lumber was the principal contributor to the overall rise.
Despite the
recent strong gains, the level of output of construction supplies was still nearly 10 percent below its most recent high, which occurred in early 1990.
-2Output of materials rose another 0.7 percent in July.
Within
durables, materials related to motor vehicle production posted further gains, along with basic metals.
Among nondurables, textiles showed
another significant gain, and output of paper rose sharply for a second month. July:
Production of energy materials was little changed in
Increases in coal, electricity generation, and crude oil were
nearly offset by a sharp curtailment in output of natural gas. Production in manufacturing advanced 0.6 percent in July: as a result, capacity utilization in manufacturing increased 0.2 percentage point to 78.4 percent.
The overall factory operating rate remains a
percentage point below its level at year-end 1990 and 6-3/4 percentage points below its recent high in January 1989. Motor Vehicle Sales After running close to 10-1/2 million units (annual rate) in June and July, sales of new domestic cars and light trucks were 10 million units (annual rate) during the first ten-day selling period in August. 1
Auto sales dropped back to a 6-1/2 million unit rate after
averaging 6-3/4 million units
(annual rate) in the preceding two
months; truck sales also moved slightly lower than their June-July average. Consumer Sentiment Based on the first 323 (of an eventual 500) responses to the University of Michigan's survey, the composite index of consumer sentiment fell 3.3 points to a level of 79.6.
Much of the slippage
occurred in the "expected conditions" component, although the "current conditions" component declined as well.
Respondents' average expected
1. Ten-day sales are seasonally adjusted using FRB factors prorated to BEA's monthly seasonal factors.
-3price increase during the next 12 months remained at 38 percent, but the average expected annual increase over the next five to ten years dropped from 5.5 percent in July to 4.8 percent in August. Housing Markets Private housing starts recovered further in July.
As has been
the case so far in the current upturn, an increase in single-family construction accounted for almost all the July rise in starts. Single-family starts reached 894,000 units (annual rate) in July, the highest level since May 1990.
Moreover, permit issuance for single-
family homes rose further to 792,000 units (annual rate).
Multifamily
starts edged up in July to 176,000 units (annual rate), a level that remains close to the 30-year low recorded in May. On a regional basis, total housing starts in July strengthened noticeably in the South and were up in the West; in the Northeast, a steep decline in new homebuilding likely represents a return to a more sustainable level of activity following a surge in starts in June. Real GNP in 1991:Q2 Based on the information received to date, the staff expects that the preliminary estimate of real GNP to be released on August 28 will be little changed from the advance release, which showed real GNP up at a 0.4 percent annual rate and real GDP having risen at a 1.2 percent rate.
However, the composition of real GNP likely will be
noticeably different than estimated earlier:
Inventory liquidation
appears to have been somewhat greater than the BEA anticipated earlier, and final sales appear to be stronger.
The staff is
expecting upward revisions to net merchandise exports and personal consumption expenditures that should more than offset a downward adjustment to real spending on nonresidential construction.
-4GROWTH IN SELECTED COMPONENTS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Percent change from preceding comparable period) Proportion in total IP 1990:Q4
1990
19901
Q4
1991
1991
Q1
Q2
May
June
July
---- Annual rate---100.0
0.3
-7.0
-9.7
2.2
0.8
0.6
0.5
Excluding motor vehicles and parts
96.2
0.8
-4.9
-8.6
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.3
Products, total Final products Consumer goods Automotive products Other consumer goods Durables Nondurables Energy Other
61.4 46.9 25.7 2.2 23.5 3.0 20.5 2.7 17.8
0.6 1.1 -0.7 -7.3 0.0 -3.9 0.6 -2.3 1.0
-5.3 -5.3 -3.8 -37.6 0.4 -16.2 3.2 -2.4 4.1
-8.8 -7.3 -7.0 -24.6 -5.3 -10.9 -4.4 -5.5 -4.3
1.6 2.2 5.3 40.3 2.6 11.0 1.4 4.2 1.0
0.7 0.4 0.9 3.2 0.7 0.4 0.8 4.1 0.3
0.4 0.3 0.6 2.8 0.4 2.4 0.1 -1.1 0.3
0.3 0.4 0.4 3.4 0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2
15.8 1.0 14.8 6.6 4.3 4.8 5.7
4.2 -9.4 5.3 5.1 1.3 -0.2 -4.6
-7.6 -49.8 -3.4 0.4 -10.2 -4.7 -12.0
-7.4 -42.2 -4.6 7.0 -14.2 -8.6 -21.2
2.0 66.6 -1.2 0.3 -2.9 -11.2 -0.3
0.2 4.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -1.1 1.1
-0.0 3.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.9 1.2
0.8 6.4 0.4 0.2 1.1 -0.7 0.6
Materials Durable Nondurable Energy
38.6 19.6 8.8 10.2
-0.1 -0.5 0.5 0.0
-9.7 -13.9 -5.5 -4.5
-11.0 -16.7 -7.0 -3.0
3.2 3.1 1.1 5.1
1.2 1.2 0.7 1.4
1.0 0.9 1.2 1.0
0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2
Memorandum: Major industry groups: Manufacturing Excluding motor vehicles and parts
84.9
0.3
-7.4
-10.4
1.9
0.6
0.7
0.6
81.0
0.9
-4.9
-9.2
0.1
0.4
0.6
0.4
7.5 7.6
2.4 -2.1
-1.4 -7.6
-4.0 -7.6
-3.0 10.2
-0.3 4.8
1.9 -1.4
-0.9 0.7
Total index
Business equipment Motor vehicles Other business equipment and related Industrial Defense and space equip. Construction supplies
Mining Utilities
1. From the final quarter of the previous period to the final quarter of the period indicated.
CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN MANUFACTURING (Percent of capacity; seasonally adjusted) 1967-89 1988-89
1991
1990
Avg.
High
July
May
June
July
Total industry
82.2
85.0
83.8
79.1
79.5
79.7
Manufacturing
81.5
85.1
83.1
77.8
78.2
78.4
82.3 81.1
89.0 83.6
86.1 81.8
79.1 77.3
80.1 77.4
80.8 77.5
Primary processing Advanced processing
August 16, 1991 UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER: SURVEY OF CONSUMER ATTITUDES (Not seasonally adjusted) 1990 Dec
1991 Jan
1991 Feb
1991 Mar
1991 Apr
1991 May
1991 Jun
1991 Jul
1991 Aug
Composite of current and expected conditions
65.5
66.8
70.4
87.7
81.8
78.3
82.1
82.9
79.6
Current conditions Expected conditions
84.0 53.7
84.9 55.2
83.7 62.0
92.7 84.5
92.8 74.7
89.0 71.5
91.9 75.9
96.1 74.4
90.7 72.4
98 110
104 118
96 120
102 126
99 122
102 124
104 120
103 119
101 111
113 100
98 79
102 81
99 80
114 120 126
138 137 148
132 141 140
127 128 149
129 133 148
134 145 148
134 134 148
Indexes of consumer sentiment (Feb. 1966-100)
Personal financial situation Now compared with 12 months ago* Expected in 12 months* Expected business conditions Next 12 months* Next 5 years* Appraisal of buying conditions Cars Large household appliances* Houses
104 119 114
105 115 126
36 44
31 50
Average expected increase in prices during the next 12 months
5.5
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.3
4.6
4.8
3.8
3.8
Average expected increase in prices (per year) over the next 5 to 10 years
5.9
5.6
6.0
6.2
5.2
5.5
5.8
5.5
4.8
willingness to use credit willingness to use savings
* --
Indicates the question is
one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment.
Note: Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent r eporting 'good times' (or 'better') minus the percent reporting 'bad times' (or 'worse'), plus 100.
-6PRIVATE HOUSING ACTIVITY (Seasonally adjusted annual rates; millions of units) 1990 Annual All units Permits Starts Single-family units Permits Starts Sales New homes Existing homes Multifamily units Permits Starts Vacancy rate Rental units Owned units
p
1. Percent. Preliminary.
1990
1991
1991 r
r
Juner
July p
.97 .98
1.00 1.03
1.00 1.07
.76 .83
.76 .83
.78 .86
.79 .89
.47 3.09
.51 3.48
.49 3.54
.53 3.59
n.a. n.a.
.23 .26
.19 .19
.20 .17
.21 .15
.22 .17
.21 .18
9.0 6.6
9.4 7.6
9.4 7.1
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
Q4
Q1
Q2
May
1.11 1.19
.90 1.04
.86 .92
.96 1.00
.79 .90
.67 .79
.67 .73
.53 3.30
.47 3.12
.32 .30
9.1 7.2
Owned units consist mainly of condominiums. n.a. Not available. r Revised estimates. PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS (Seasonally adjusted annual rate) Millions of units
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Unemployment Insurance (Weekly data; seasonally adjusted, FRB basis <1>) Initial Claims
Thousands
700 650 600 550
Aug3
All regular programs
433.6
j 500 450 400 350 300
1981
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
250
1991
Millions
Insured Unemployment
r5.0
All regular programs Jul 27 3.43
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
<1> Only the state program components of these series are seasonally adjusted.
1986
1987
1988
1990
1991
-8-
THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Senior Financial Officer and Loan Officer Surveys 2 In view of the unusual weakness of the monetary aggregates and bank credit in recent months, the System recently conducted two surveys of large commercial banks, requesting information on retail deposit behavior, loan demand, and lending standards. On the Senior Financial Officer Survey, more than half of the 45 banks that have responded to date indicated that retail deposit growth at their institution has been unusually weak since the end of May. The most frequently cited reason for the unusually slow growth was the more attractive returns available on nondeposit instruments, such as bond funds and Treasury securities:
Of the banks experiencing
unusually weak deposit growth, about three-quarters considered this a factor.
In addition, more than half of them attributed some of the
weakness to changes in their own deposit rates, fee structures, or promotional expenditures.
Indeed, banks with slow deposit growth more
often reported that they had lowered their deposit rates relative to other banks in their market, had increased fees, or reduced advertising and other promotional efforts.
Other reasons for the slow
growth--including the condition of the local economy, rates and terms offered by other depositories, concerns about deposit safety, and changes in their own promotion of nondeposit investments--also were given, but less frequently. Several questions on the survey dealt with possible reasons for changes in banks' demands for retail deposits.
About 20 percent of
respondents indicated that increased deposit insurance premiums had 2. A more extensive analysis of the survey results will be available next week.
-9reduced somewhat their demands for retail deposits.
And a handful of
the eighteen banks that had acquired retail deposits from failed depository institutions indicated that this had made them less aggressive in seeking additional deposits.
A larger share, about a
third of the surveyed banks, reported that the weak pace of asset growth had decreased their demands for retail deposits, and about half said it had reduced their demands for wholesale liabilities. With regard to the strength of customers' demands for loans, about a third of the banks indicated that large corporations had exhibited weaker-than-normal loan demand in recent months, with reduced inventory and fixed investment financing needs most often cited as the reasons.
Loan demand on the part of middle-market and
small business customers appeared to have been about the same as usual, with roughly the same number of respondents reporting increased as decreased demand.
In the home mortgage and consumer markets, the
balance tipped toward those reporting stronger demands for credit.
In
general, those banks reporting unusually slow deposit growth tended to be a bit more likely to report weaker loan demand. Results from the Senior Loan Officer Survey show a further reduction in the net share of banks that had tightened credit availability over the last three months.
Only 10 to 15 percent of
domestic respondents reported some tightening of credit standards for business borrowers, and a couple indicated some easing.
The waning of
the trend toward tightening was even more evident at foreign-related institutions. The number of respondent banks imposing stricter terms on the loans that are being made was higher than the number tightening standards, but it, too, was down noticeably from that in the May survey.
In the commercial real estate area, the tightening of
-10standards over the most recent three months continued at about the same pace reported in the prior survey, with about a quarter of the domestic respondents reporting further tightening.
Lending standards
for residential mortgages were also raised, but the number of banks tightening declined, as it had in the May survey.
On balance, banks
reported no change in their willingness to provide consumer credit over the last three months. Of those reporting tightened credit standards for approving construction and land development loans in the last year, more than four-fifths of respondent domestic banks had tightened lending practices in the following areas over that period:
preleasing (share
of units under lease commitments prior to loan), borrower equity, and collateral.
About seven out of ten domestic respondents raised the
spreads of loan rates over the cost of funds.
Somewhat smaller
fractions of foreign banks changed these practices.
-11MONETARY AGGREGATES (based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted)
Growth 19901
1991 Q1
1991 Q2
1991 May
1991 Jun
1991 Jul p
04 90Jul 91p
------------ Percent change at annual rates--------------------1. 2.
M1 M2
3.
M3
4.2 3.8 1.7 ------------
5.9 3.4 4.0
7.3 4.6 1.8
13.5 4.2 0.5
9.6 1.4 -2.1
1.8 -3.7 -4.6
Percent change at annual rates-----------
Levels bil. s Jul 91p
Selected components 4. 5. 6.
Currency Demand deposits
7.
Other checkable
8.
M2 minus M12
9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
16.
20. 21. 22. 23.
deposits
Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual fund shares Commercial banks 3 Savings deposits plus MMDAs Small time deposits Thrift institutions 3 Savings deposits plus MMOAs
Small time deposits
17. M3 minus M2 18. 19.
5.7
3.9
7.3
6.4
-2.0
545.5
11.0
15.3
-0.6
-2.5
3.9
0.9
4.5
12.6
3.7 9.9
6.1 -9.0
258.9 278.9
3.5
6.1
13.5
24.6
15.2
8.5
314.2
3.7
2.6
3.7
1.1
-1.3
-5.6
2528.3
3.0
-42.3
-16.0
-34.7
-23.2
-58.4
62.6
11.0 9.9 7.5 12.4 -5.5 -2.2 -7.3
18.2 8.2 7.5 8.9 -6.3 -0.7 -9.8
6.6 7.3 16.7 -1.8 -1.5 18.4 -13.7
3.0 5.8 17.3 -5.8 -0.1 22.9 -14.9
-2.6 8.7 16.3 1.0 -11.2 11.7 -26.5
-16.1 5.2 11.6 -1.4 -9.0 10.3 -22.1
359.4 1226.6 625.6 601.0 882.1 364.5 517.7
-6.4
6.7
-10.2
-15.4
-17.4
-8.5
761.3
-9.5 -3.5 -23.9
1.2 11.9 -32.1
-7.6 0.3 -34.8
-8.0 2.4 -46.3
-11.7 -3.6 -42.4
-17.3 -12.1 -38.1
491.8 394.1 97.7
20.2 -12.0 -12.1
49.9 -32.8 7.9
23.0 -25.6 -31.2
4.9 -16.1 -47.5
-23.8 -34.1 -7.3
-12.6 22.9 11.1
141.8 80.2 65.7
Ml-A
4
Large time deposits 5 At commercial banks, net
At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual fund shares Term RPs, NSA Term Eurodollars, NSA
-----Average monthly change in billions of dollars---MEMORANDA: 24. Managed liabilities at commercial banks (25+261 25. Large time deposits, gross
26.
Nondeposit funds
Net due to related foreign institutions 7 Other 28. 29. U.S. government deposits at comercial a banks
-0.1, -2.6 2.4
-1.5 6.4 -7.9
-4.9 0.3 -5.2
-2.6 1.7 -4.3
2.2 0.2
-1.5 -6.4
-3.7 -1.5
-4.8 0.4
3.1
-3.5
-6.6
-11.3 -1.1 -10.2
-4.8 -4.4 -0.4
695.8 447.5 248.3
-6.9 -3.3
-0.4 0.0
18.8 229.5
8.1
-2.8
20.4
27.
1. Amounts shown are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. 2. Nontransactions M2 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. 3. Commercial bank savings deposits excluding MMDAs grew during June and July at rates of 21 percent and 13.9 percent, respectively. At thrift institutions, savings deposits excluding HMOAs grew during June and July at rates of 11.4 percent and 8 percent, respectively. 4. The non-M2 component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. 5. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift institutions. 6. Dollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. 7. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money (including borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor items). Data are partially estimated. 8. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks. p - preliminary
-121 SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (percent) -- -- - -- - - - -- - -- - - - -- - -- -- - -- - - - -- - - - -- - -- - -- - - - -- -- - -- - -- - - - -- -
1989
1990
1991
Change from:
Dec lows
March highs
Aug highs
FOMC Jul 3 Aug 15
Aug 90 FOMC highs Jul 3 ...................................
Short-term rates Federal funds 2
9.85
8.45
8.21
9.09 9.11 9.05
7.53 7.29 7.11
Commercial paper 1-month 3-month
10.05 10.15
8.51 8.22
Large negotiable CDs 3 1-month 3-month 6-month
10.07 10.32 10.08
8.52 8.22
Eurodollar deposits 4 1-month 3-month
Bank prime rate
5.78
5.64
-2.57
-0.14
7.59
5.56
5.30
7.51
5.69 6.00
5.35 5.35
-2.29 -2.16 -2.10
-0.34 -0.65
8.10
6.05
5.69
8.05
6.13
5.67
-2.41 -2.38
-0.36 -0.46
8.01
8.14 8.18 8.25
5.95 6.04 6.33
5.61 5.61 5.76
-2.53 -2.57 -2.49
-0.34 -0.43 -0.57
10.19 10.50
8.38 8.25
8.13 8.19
5.94 6.06
5.56 5.56
-2.57 -2.63
-0.38 -0.50
11.50
10.50
10.00
8.50
8.50
-1.50
0.00
U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 3-year 9.88 7.69 10-year 9.53 7.77 30-year 9.31 7.83
8.50 9,05 9.17
7.40 8.26 8.42
6.73
7.84 8.09
-1.77 -1.21 -1.08
-0.67 -0.42
Municipal revenue(Bond Buyer)
Treasury bills 3-month 6-month 1-year
3
7.45
-0.26
Intermediate- and long-term rates
Corporate--A utility recently offered Home mortgage rates S&L fixed-rate S&L ARM, 1-yr.
-0.33
7.95
7.28
7.80
7.30
7.03
-0.77
-0.27
10.47
9.29
10.50
9.52
9.24
-1.26
-0.28
11.22 9.31
9.69 8.34
10.29 8.39
9.67 7.25
9.27 7.14
-1.02 -1.25
-0.40 -0.11
6
1989 Record highs
Date
Lows Jan 3
1991 FOMC Jul 3 Aug 15
Percent change from: Record highs
1989 lows
-1.22 -0.17 -7.31 -0.39 -0.11
39.81 38.56 20.56 36.22 37.48
FOMC Jul 3
Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial 3035.33 NYSE Composite 213.75 AMEX Composite 397.03 NASDAQ (OTC) 517.68 Wilshire 3741.74
6/3/91 2144.64 2934.70 2998.43 8/7/91 154.00 204.47 213.38 10/10/89 305.24 358.41 367.99 8/14/91 378.56 474.32 515.67 8/14/91 2718.59 3563.19 3737.63
2.17 4.36 2.67 8.72 4.90
.....................................................................................................
One-day quotes except as noted. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average to date for the maintenance period ending August 21, 1991.
3/ Secondary market. 4/ Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5/ Based on one-day Thursday quotes
and futures market index changes. 6/ Quotes for week ending Friday closest to date shown.
-13THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
U.S. Merchandise Trade through June 1991 In June, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit was $4.0 billion (seasonally adjusted, Census basis), somewhat less than the revised May deficit of $4.8 billion.
(See the tables that follow.)
of both exports and imports declined in June.
The level
Most of the 1 percent
decline in exports was in agricultural products and industrial supplies (primarily fuels and chemicals).
The 3 percent decrease in
imports was spread across most major trade categories
(except
automotive products from Japan). The deficit narrowed in the second quarter, the third consecutive quarter of improvement.
There was strong growth in the value of
exports (about 4 percent) from the first to second quarters and only a small increase in the value of imports (less than 1 percent).
The
increase in exports was primarily in machinery, commercial aircraft, and automotive products.
The small rise in imports resulted from
increases in foods and capital goods
(particularly computers and
aircraft) that were nearly offset by declines in oil and automotive products.
The price of oil declined about $3 per barrel in the second
quarter (and by about $12 per barrel since the fourth quarter); the quantity of oil rose by 1 million barrels per day from the firstquarter rate.
The reduction in automotive imports was for the third
consecutive quarter.
In the second quarter, the decline in automotive
imports was the result of large and nearly offsetting swings in imports from Japan and Canada:
There was a sharp reduction in
shipments from Japan and a large increase in automotive imports from Canada.
In the previous two quarters, all of the decline in
automotive imports was from Canada.
-14-
August 16,
1991
Merchandise Trade: Census-Based Data (in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted *)
Exports Total
Ag.
322.4 363.8 394.5
1988 1989 1990
I NonAg.
Imports Total
Oil
NonOil
I Balance
37.7 42.2 40.3
284.7 321.6 354.2
441.0 473.2 495.0
38.5 48.9 62.2
402.5 424.3 432.8
-118.5 -109.4 -100.5
489.7 482.4 498.0 509.9
63.3 51.3 61.9 72.1
426.4 431.1 436.1 437.7
-104.8
474.9 476.2
52.9 51.7
422.0 424.6
-67.8 -53.3
Quarters at annual rates: 1990 Qtr 1 2 3 4
384.9 396.2 386.7 410.0
43.1
41.5 38.5 37.9
341.8 354.7 348.2 372.1
1991 Qtr 1 2
407.1 423.0
39.3 38.3
367.8 384.7
1990 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
31.4 31.6 33.3 32.1 32.8 34.2 32.1 32.5 32.0 35.0 34.2 33.3
3.7 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.1
27.7 28.1 29.6 28.7 29.4 30.6 28.9 29.2 28.9 31.9 30.9 30.2
41.6 39.1 41.7 39.7 40.7 40.1 41.4 41.8 41.3 44.5 43.1 39.9
5.8 5.2 4.8 4.1 4.6 4.2 4.2 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.5 5.3
35.8 34.0 36 .9 35.7 36.1 36.0 37.2 36.5 35.4 38.2 36.6 34.6
-10.2 -7.6 -8.4 -7.7 -8.0 -5.9 -9.2 -9.3 -9.3 -9.5 -8.9 -6.6
1991 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
34.1 33.6 34.0 35.6 35.3 34.8
3.1 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.1
31.0 30.2 30.7 32.5 31.9 31.8
41.5 39.1 38.1 40.1 40.1 38.9
5.2 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.6 4.2
36.3 35.0 34.3 36.1 35.4 34.7
-7.4 -5.5 -4.1 -4.5 -4.8 -4.0
1
-86.2
-111.3 -99.8
Monthly Rates:
--------------------------------------------------------------
A All data are on a revised end-use basis. Sources
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Customs Valuation.
-15August 16,
1991
U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- LEVELS Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted (except as noted), Census-basis Data 1991 Feb
1991 Mar
1991 Apr
1991 May
1991 Jun
1990 Qtr-2
1990 Qtr-3
- - - - - - -. - . - - - - -
1990 Qtr-4
1991 Qtr-1
.- .- - - -. - - - . - - -
1991 Qtr-2 .-- -
.--
TRADE BALANCE (Census-basis) -5504 -4070 -4507 -4790 -4022 -21547 -27821 -24962 ......------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-16950
-13319
EXPORTS, Total (FAS Value) Agricultural Nonagricultural
33599 3392 30208
34031 3332 30699
35632 3168 32464
35271 3329 31942
34839 3077 31762
99052 10384 88669
96684 9635 87049
102506 9483 93023
101774 9823 91951
105742 9574 96168
Ind Supplies (Norag)** Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies
9025 1640 2721 332 4332
8193 1124 2716 243 4109
8548 953 2787 359 4448
8675 1263 2646 249 4518
8009 1037 2475 168 4328
23131 3056 6993 620 12462
23541 3591 6871 416 12662
26308 4620 7735 891 13061
25942 4213 8124 833 12772
25231 3253 7908 776 13294
12414 2236 2233 1165 6779
13484 3003 2287 1196 6998
14433 3392 2354 1215 7472
13698 2726 2243 1228 7501
14407 3598 2228 1196 7385
38522 8661 6270 3291 20300
37988 7914 6610 3340 20124
38608 7716 6599 3445 20847
38877 7710 6826 3533 20807
42538 9717 6825 3640 22357
2604 3863 2302
2906 3808 2307
3383 3838 2262
3478 3754 2338
3451 3663 2231
9896 10946 6173
9113 10706 5702
9376 11464 7268
8625 11601 6907
10313 11255 6831
39103 4143 34960
38100 3843 34257
40139 4089 36050
40061 4616 35445
38860 4209 34651
120599 12836 107763
124505 15473 109032
127468 18034 109433
118724 13225 105499
119061 12915 106146
Foods, Feeds,Beverages
2060
2118
2364
2333
2297
6744
6422
6471
6389
6993
Ind Supplies (ex Oil) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies
6613 1209 761 126 4517
6274 1194 678 155 4247
6869 1241 784 165 4679
6665 1238 647 251 4529
6247 1255 543 119 4330
20133 3533 2192 238 14170
20237 3549 2295 236 14157
20532 3659 2284 337 14252
19860 3627 2207 520 13506
19780 3733 1973 535 13538
Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers S Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds
9933 969 2024 1058 5883
9925 980 2051 1067 5827
10367 1013 2079 1088 6186
10059 1007 2223 1025 5805
9842 1088 2206 1018 5530
28887 2679 5723 3011 17474
29044 2481 5746 3012 17805
30034 3196 5812 3073 17953
29801 2797 6047 3176 17781
30269 3108 6509 3131 17521
Automotive Products From Canada From Other
6658 1797 4861
6604 2044 4560
6669 2337 4332
6517 2455 4062
6640 2345 4295
21893 7747 14146
22495 8062 14433
21483 6829 14654
20551 5911 14639
19826 7137 12690
Consumer Goods Other Nonpetrol Imports
8485 1211
8049 1287
8508 1274
8409 1462
8144 1481
26141 3966
26621 4212
26682 4231
25101 3798
25060 4218
Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value* Volume l bd)* Price ($/bbli•
3698 6.94 19.04
3757 6.88 17.62
3986 7.76 17.11
4599 8.56 17.33
4049 8.06 16.75
12434 8.75 15.61
15233 8.40 19.71
17810 6.79 28.51
12783 7.06 20.11
12633 8.13 17.07
Passenger Car Imports (NSA) from Canada from Japan* from other (residual)
3490 729 1855 906
3879 1172 1807 901
3741 1281 1499 962
3522 1398 1197 927
3626 1411 1456 759
11596 3893 4436 3267
10203 2879 4351 2973
13076 3669 5767 3639
11174 2767 5567 2839
10889 4089 4152 2648
Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Sem iconductors Other Capital Gds Automotive Products Consumer Goods Other Nonagric Exports ..................................................................................................................
IMPORTS, Total (Customs Value) Petroleum (revised, SA) Nonpetroleum
* Unrevised data. '* Agricultural Industrial Supplies (primarily cotton and tobacco
are excluded from this line.
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1991, August 19). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19910820_part1
@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19910820_part1,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
year = {1991},
month = {Aug},
howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19910820_part1},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}