greenbooks · May 18, 1992

Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC

May 15, 1992

SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Industrial production and capacity utilization .

Retail inventories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Michigan index of consumer sentiment . . . . . . . . .

2 3

Tables Growth in selected components of industrial production Capacity utilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in manufacturing and trade inventories . . . . Inventories relative to sales. .. . . . . . . . . . . University of Michigan Survey Research Center: Survey of Consumer Attitudes . . . . . . . . . . . .

4 4 6 6 7

Charts Consumer sentiment . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . Ratio of inventories to sales. . . . . . . . . . . . .

3 5

THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY The May 1992 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tables

Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit. . . . . . . . ... Selected financial market quotations . . . . . . .. .

12 13 14

THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Developments in foreign industrial countries ..... Errata . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . ..

15 15

SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization The index of industrial production rose 0.5 percent in April. Revised figures now indicate that IP dropped somewhat less in January and rose slightly more in March than reported earlier.

As a

result, the cumulative rise in production over the past three months is now estimated to have retraced all but 0.2 percent of the decline that occurred between last October and January. Much of the upward revision to the index over the January-toMarch period reflects higher levels of output of construction supplies, notably steel and lumber, and of materials, such as paper. textiles and chemicals.

In addition, in March, production of

business equipment now appears to have been a bit stronger. In April, the increase in output of motor vehicles and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to the overall rise in IP. Production of other consumer goods moved up just a little: further sizable increases in production of furniture and carpeting are estimated to have been offset by cuts in production of appliances and clothing.

Production of business equipment (other than motor

vehicles) rose moderately for a third month.

Output of industrial

equipment has posted a solid gain in each of the last three months. after dropping almost every month since September 1990.

Production

of office and computing equipment has been rising rapidly since October; the sustained gains have cumulated to about a 15 percent increase at an annual rate.

The April rise of 0.6 percent in the

index for construction supplies was fairly broadly based.

While

production of steel materials dropped back last month, output of durable materials related to motor vehicle assembly moved up.

-2Output of nondurable materials was boosted by strong increases in paper, petroleum, and chemicals. Capacity utilization in manufacturing reached 77.7 percent in April; rates of utilization in both primary and advanced processing remain about 5 percentage points below the levels that prevailed in September 1990. Retail Inventories Retail inventories rose in March at a $23.4 billion annual rate in current-cost terms; about half of the increase was in auto dealers' stocks.

For non-auto retailers, the accumulation of stocks

in March retraced the bulk of the drawdowns posted in the preceding two months.

As a result, non-auto retail inventories showed only a

$2.9 billion net decline (current cost, annual rate) over the first quarter as a whole, considerably less than the $9.6 billion liquidation assumed by BEA in preparing the advance GDP estimate for 1992:Q1.

With the drop in sales in March, the inventory-sales ratio

for non-auto retailers rose to 1.49 months at the end of March--well below the elevated level at the end of last year, but still a shade higher than earlier in 1991.

At a more disaggregated level,

inventory-sales ratios rose for most categories of retail stores. For all manufacturing and trade, inventories rose at an annual rate of $36.9 billion in current-cost terms in March, but declined at a $1.7 billion annual rate for the first quarter as a whole. Because of the decline in the stock-sales ratio at non-auto retailers, the ratio of inventories to sales edged down in the first quarter.

The ratio for wholesalers was little changed from the

relatively high level at the end of last year.

The ratio for

manufacturers also was unchanged, but at a relatively low level.

-3Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment:

May 15. 1992

According to the University of Michigan Survey Research Center, the composite index of consumer sentiment increased 2-1/2 index points in May, the third consecutive monthly increase.

These

preliminary results are based on responses of nearly two-thirds of the full sample of participants.

The improvement in consumer

attitudes was widespread across a variety of indicators. Assessments of business conditions over the next 12 months and next 5 years both firmed significantly.

Consumers' appraisals of buying

conditions for large household appliances rose in May to their highest level since last summer; appraisals of buying conditions for cars showed an even larger increase in May, reaching the highest Moreover, the questions relating to consumers'

level in five years.

willingness to use credit and to use saving for major purchases The only area of pessimism was for

both increased markedly.

Questions for

consumers' appraisals of their financial situation. both current and expected conditions edged down.

Consumer Sentiment

Index 132

Michigan Survey - - - - Conference Board Survey

-A 118 104

S-

1 / I

141

I 1981

I 1983

-- 55

I 1985

I 1987

i 1989

1991

-4 48 1 I4

-4GROWTH IN SELECTED COMPONENTS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Percent change from preceding comparable period) Proportion in total IP 1991:4

1991 1

1991

1992

-Annual rateTotal index Previous

1992

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

---- Monthly rate-----

100.0

-.5 -. 5

-. 7 -. 7

-2.9 -4.1

.5 .4

.4 .2

4.2 7.7

8.5 1.0

4.4 -3.6

-20.0 -7.2

7.7 -. 4

.6 2.3

5.2 -.2

88.1 54.8 42.1 22.6 3.7 18.9

-1.1 -1.4 -. 9 1.9 3.2 1.7

-. 7 -. 6 -. 3 2.5 -3.1 3.6

-1.6 -1.0 -1.7 -. 3 2.5 -. 7

.3 .2 .2 .2 1.9 -.2

.2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3

.3 .2 .2 .1 .2 .1

14.5 2.8 3.9 7.8

-2.0 4.2 -8.7 -. 4

-1.8 10.5 -14.6 1.0

-1.5 12.3 -11.0 -1.3

.4 1.2 .8 .0

.5 .9 .6 .3

.4 1.0 ,3 .2

4.4

-8.0

-4.1

-10.3

-. 5

-. 2

-. 1

12.7 5.3

-2.7 -6.4

-1.3 -5.2

1.7 1.7

.0 .5

.3 .3

.2 .6

33.3 18.2 9.0

-. 5 -1.8 2.3

-1.0 -. 3 .2

-2.7 -1.7 -2.6

.5 .9 -. 2

.1 .3 .8

.5 .1 .7

Motor vehicles and parts Utilities EXCLUDING MOTOR VEHICLES AND PARTS AND UTILITIES Total index Products, total Final products Consumer goods Durables Nondurables Business equipment Office and computing Industrial Other Defense and space equipment Intermediate products Construction supplies Materials Durables Nondurables

1. From the final quarter of the previous period to the final quarter of the period indicated.

CAPACITY UTILIZATION (Percent of capacity; seasonally adjusted) 1967-90

1988-89

1990

1992

Avg.

High

Sep.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

Total industry

82.2

85.0

83.6

78.3

78.4

78.7

Manufacturing

81.5

85.1

82.8

77.3

77.5

77.7

82.4 81.1

89.0 83.6

85.1 81.8

80.3 76.1

80.5 76.2

80.8 76.4

Primary processing Advanced processing

RATIO OF INVENTORIES TO SALES (Current-cost data) Ratio Manufacturing 1.9

- 1.7

Total

.Mar.-

1.5

1.3

Excluding transportation equipment I

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

Ratio S1.5 Wholesale

Mar.

1.2 1.4

1.1 1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Ratio

Ratio 2.7 Retail

2.3 -

1992

1.7

1.5

2.1

Excluding auto

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1.4

1992

-6CHANGES IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES (Billions of dollars at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted data)

1991

1992

10.8 1.8 -4.5 -3.3 18.6 9.0 9.6

27.6 26.5 -12.5 20.0 20.1 1.1 19.0

-1.0 -1.0 -4.1 -3.0 6.2 .0 6.1

12.4 20.5 -11.4 16.5 7.2 -8.1 15.3

1992 Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

-1.7 -5.6 -11.4 8.7 1.0 3.9 -2.9

-44.3 -32.2 -20.5 4.3 -28.1 -12.1 -15.9

2.2 -9.7 -14.3 8.9 7.6 12.0 -4.3

37.0 25.1 .6 12.9 23.5 11.9 11.5

n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

-39.4 -28.0 -15.6 2.4 -26.2 -11.3 -14.8

-5.3 -11.4 -12.7 8.1 -. 6 6.1 -6.7

n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Current-cost basis Total Total, excluding retail auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto Constant-dollar basis Total Total, excluding retail auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto

INVENTORIES RELATIVE TO SALES 1

(Months supply; based on seasonally adjusted data)

1991

1992

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

1.50 1.47 1.57 1.31 1.57 1.91 1.48

1.51 1.49 1.55 1.36 1.61 1.87 1.54

1.50 1.48 1.55 1.36 1.56 1.84 1.49

1.51 1.50 1.58 1.35 1.56 1.80 1.49

1.49 1.47 1.54 1.36 1.54 1.78 1.47

1.49 1.47 1.53 1.35 1.56 1.84 1.49

Current-cost basis Total Total, excluding retail auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto

1. Ratio of end of period inventories to average monthly sales for the period.

May 15, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER:

1992

SURVEY OF CONSUMER ATTITUDES

(Not seasonally adjusted)

1991

1992

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Composite of current and expected conditions

83.0

78.3

69.1

68.2

67.5

68.8

76.0

77.2

79.7

Current conditions

93.2 76.4

90.4 70.5

80.3 61.9

78.7 61.5

80.5 59.1

79.7 61.8

84.9 70.3

87.7 70.5

91.0 72.5

104 122

101 125

88 119

88 115

90 119

91 123

93 113

97 129

96 123

99 86

87 70

66 61

67 64

53 63

123 137 152

123 133 146

124 119 143

113 114 141

126 114 163

125 126 153

131 130 162

144 139 165

1992

May (p)

Indexes of consumer sentiment (Feb. 1966=100)

Expected conditions

Personal financial situation Now compared with 12 months ago* Expected in 12 months* Expected business conditions

Next 12 months* Next 5 years* Appraisal of buying conditions Cars Large household appliances* Houses

123 117 155

Willingness to use credit Willingness to use savings Average expected increase in prices during the next 12 months

3.7

4.7

4.6

4.0

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.1

Average expected increase in prices (per year) over the next 5 to 10 years

4.7

5.1

5.3

4.8

5.4

4.5

4.6

4.9

5.2

* -- Indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. (p) -- Preliminary (f) -- Final

Note: Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent reporting 'good times' (or 'better') minus the percent reporting 'bad times' (or 'worse'), plus 100. Asterisk (*) indicates the question is one of the five,equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment.

THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY The May 1992 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The May 1992 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices posed questions about changes in bank lending standards and terms and about the demand for bank loans by businesses and households. Most domestic banks kept credit standards unchanged over the last three months.

For large and medium-sized firms, the handful of

banks reporting tighter terms were about offset by those reporting an easing.

For small firms, however, several banks reported easing

while none tightened.

U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks

reported a slight further tightening on balance, citing deterioration in actual or expected capital conditions as the reason for the change.

The domestic banks that tightened standards tended

to cite less favorable outlooks for the economy and specific industries as the reasons for changing standards.

In contrast to

credit terms, there was some moderate further tightening of loan terms, on balance, especially price terms like the cost of credit lines and interest rate spreads over base rates; most of the tightening was for large and medium-sized firms. Standards for approval of loan applications for various types of nonresidential real estate continued to tighten at about the same pace as recorded in the January survey.

Residential real estate

lending standards were basically unchanged. Domestic banks reported that business loan demand from larger corporate borrowers had changed little on balance over the past three months, but that demand from middle market and small business borrowers had strengthened noticeably.

Banks that reported weaker

loan demand from their large corporate borrowers indicated that

those customers had opted for nonbank sources of finance, such as

-9capital markets.

Demands for residential mortgages to purchase

houses and for home equity loans were generally stronger.

contrast to the January survey, demand for consumer installment loans strengthened on balance.

Compared with the January survey,

about twice as many domestic banks reported increased willingness to provide consumer credit. Lending Standards and Terms Nonmerger-related C&I loans:

credit standards.

On balance,

the standards used by domestic banks for approving business loans for nonmerger-related purposes changed little.

Standards for small

businesses were eased somewhat at a small number of domestic banks. Of the few domestic banks that either raised or lowered their business lending standards, improvement or deterioration in general economic conditions and in conditions in specific sectors were often cited as the reasons.

Changes in actual and prospective capital

conditions were also sometimes cited. Business lending standards at U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, whose customers tend to be large business borrowers, were tightened at two banks.

Those banks reported that actual and

prospective capital considerations were the reason for the change. Nonmerger-related C&I loans: credit.

price and nonprice terms of

Domestic banks and U.S. branches and agencies of foreign

banks on balance reported some additional tightening of terms on business loans.

Though credit line sizes were pared somewhat for

large and middle-market firms, no domestic bank reported lowering and a few reported having raised credit line limits for small firms. Credit line costs tended to be higher for large and middle-market firms, a pattern that was particularly evident at large domestic banks, i.e., those with over $10 billion of assets, and at foreign banks.

On balance, credit line costs were not raised for smaller

-10firms.

At large domestic banks and at foreign banks, spreads of

loan rates at over base interest rates showed some tendency to have risen.

There was little evidence of this pattern at the smaller

domestic banks, however.

Loan covenant and collateralization

requirements were basically unchanged over the three months. Commercial real estate loans:

credit standards.

Standards for

various categories of commercial real estate lending continued to be raised at about the same pace as in the January survey:

About

10 percent of all banks tightened standards, while hardly any banks eased them.

Approximately equal numbers of banks reported

tightening standards for loans for construction and land development, commercial office buildings, industrial structures, and other nonfarm nonresidential purposes. Household loans.

On balance, domestic banks reported having

not changed credit standards for approving home purchase loan applications from individuals.

With regard to banks' willingness to

make general purpose and installment consumer loans, about twice as many banks registered an increase in their willingness to lend in May as had so indicated in January.

Overall, about one-fifth of

banks reported increased willingness to make consumer loans. The Demand for Loans Business loans.

In contrast to the January finding that the

demand for business loans had weakened, the May survey revealed that, on balance, loan demand had generally strengthened over the past three months.

Although loan demand by large corporate

customers was basically unchanged at domestic banks, loan demands by middle market and small businesses were noticeably stronger. branches and agencies of foreign banks also reported somewhat stronger business loan demand.

U.S.

-11In contrast to the January survey that reported reduced inventory and capital expenditure financing needs, the primary reason cited for the weakness of loan demand by large firms in the May survey was their use of nonbank sources of finance.

Banks that

noted stronger business loan demand most often cited increases in their customers' funding needs for inventories and fixed investment, regardless of the size of the borrower.

Of the few domestic banks

that reported weaker loan demand by middle market and small businesses, none cited their customers having turned to nonbank sources of finance. Household loans.

On balance, the demand for residential

mortgages rose over the past three months.

While some banks

reported weaker demand for residential mortgages, nearly one-third of domestic banks reported moderately stronger mortgage demand and nearly 10 percent reported substantially stronger demand.

The

demand for home equity lines of credit also strengthened considerably, with about one-third of domestic banks reporting stronger demand.

In contrast to the January survey finding that the

demand for consumer installment loans had fallen over the prior three months, the May survey found that demand was generally stronger.

-12MONETARY AGGREGATES (based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted)

1991 19911

1992 Q1 94

1992 Feb

1992 Mar

1992 Apr p

Growth Q4 91Apr 92p

------------ Percent change at annual rates--------------------1. 2. 3.

Ml M2 M3

8.0 2.8 1.2 ------------

11.0 2.3 1.0

16.5 4.2 2.2

27.2 9.4 7.2

10.3 -0.6 -2.9

5.1 -1.9 -3.4

14.3 2.7 0.7 Levels bil. $ Apr 92p

Percent change at annual rates----------

Selected components 4. 5. 6.

Ml-A Currency Demand deposits

Other checkable deposits

9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.

M2 minus M1

Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual fund shares Commercial banks Savings deposits (including HMDAs) Small time deposits Thrift institutions Savings deposits (including MMDAs) Small time deposits

17. M3 minus M2

Large time deposits 4 At commercial banks, net At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual fund shares Term RPs, NSA Term Eurodollars, NSA

5.6

8.7

14.9

28.1

9.6

6.7

592.8

8.4 3.4

7.4 10.0

7.4 22.2

9.8 45.7

0.9 18.1

7.9 5.8

273.6 311.2

12.4

15.0

19.2

25.5

11.1

2.7

350.2

1.1

-0.6

-0.1

3.1

-4.6

2524.8

-7.6

39.9

17.0

-1.6

-53.0

-39.1

71.2

3.9 7.1 13.3 1.1 -6.9 9.3 -16.8

-4.0 3.9 16.0 -8.5 -8.8 10.2 -22.5

0.9 0.9 19.2 -18.9 -4.0 22.4 -24.7

12.3 1.3 22.9 -23.5 -3.0 30.5 -31.6

-18.8 -0.6 11.1 -14.6 -3.7 23.4 -27.9

-12.7 4.6 13.8 -6.7 -12.8 16.1 -39.7

354.2 1269.3 703.3 566.0 826.5 408.1 418.4

-5.6

-5.2

-7.4

-3.5

-14.1

-10.4

710.2

-11.7 -5.1 -31.7

-18.9 -14.4 -36.7

-20.4 -18.2 -29.6

-20.2 -16.3 -33.9

-22.0 -17.2 -45.5

-20.0 -16.0 -36.3

406.1 332.3 73.8

33.4 -21.6 -10.6

37.0 -23.6 -11.5

27.0 -6.5 -28.3

-18.5 26.6 38.6

25.3 -24.4 -33.2

189.2 72.2 56.2

38.2 20.3 6.5

----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars---MEMORANDA:5 24. Managed liabilities at comercial banks (25+26) 25. Large time deposits, gross 26. Nondeposit funds 27. Net due to related foreign institutions 6 Other 28. 29. U.S. government deposits at commercial 7 banks

-0.6 -0.2 -0.4

6.5 -4.0 10.5

-2.6 -5.7 3.1

2.0 -2.3 4.3

-6.3 -6.8 0.5

-5.4 -7.2 1.8

691.5 399.7 291.8

0.4 -0.9

6.3 4.2

2.0 1.0

-1.1 5.4

2.7 -2.3

4.6 -2.7

49.9 241.9

0.9

-1.5

-8.3

2.3

-1.8

20.0

Amounts shown are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Nontransactions HZ is seasonally adjusted as a whole. The non-MH component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift institutions. Dollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial barks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money lincluding borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor itemsJ. Data are partially estimated. 7. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks. p - preliminary 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

-13COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT 1 (Percentage change at annual rate, based on seasonally adjusted data)

Category

Dec. 1990 to Dec. 1991

1991 Q4

1992 Q1

1992 Feb.

1992 Mar.

1992 Apr.

Levels bil.$ 1992 Apr.

Commercial bank credit 1. Total loans and securities at banks 2.

Securities

U.S. government

Other

Loans

3.9

7.0

1.9

0.0

2.6

5.2

17.6

24.5

6.0

6.8

8.5

19.9

765.2

23.8

30.3

9.8

8.9

16.2

24.3

588.6

1.7

7.3

-6.1

-0.7

-15.5

6.1

176.7

-0.2

1.1

0.5

-2.4

0.5

-0.1

2,098.5

-2.9

-2.1

-6.2

-8.4

-4.3

-6.1

604.4

2.9

2.4

2.3

4.8

1.0

1.1

880.1

2,863.7

Business

Real estate

Consumer

-3.9

-4.0

-1.2

2.0

-4.6

-2.3

361.4

Security

22.2

36.0

43.3

-48.5

71.6

91.4

65.0

Other

-3.2

6.1

5.1

-10.7

2.5

10.

-11.4

187.6

Short- and intermediate-term business credit 11.

Business loans net of bankers acceptances

-2.5

-2.3

Loans at foreign branches 2

-1.6

34.2

13.

Sum of lines 11 and 12

-2.5

14.

Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms

15. 16.

12.

17. 18.

-6.3

-8.9

-4.4

-5.6

598.1

-40.9

-81.3

-30.8

0.0

22.8

-1.0

-7.7

-11.9

-5.4

-5.6

620.8

-10.4

-6.3

14.9

13.0

18.9

-5.1

141.2

Sum of lines 13 and 14

-4.0

-2.0

-3.7

-7.3

-0.9

-5.3

762.1

Bankers acceptances, 3 U.S. trade-related

-16.2

-4.2

-22.9

-26.0

-31.0

n.a.

26.45

6.8

5.7

-4.2

-3.1

-0.4

n.a.

307.45

-1.6

0.1

-4.3

-6.6

-1.6

n.a.

1,099.35

Finance company loans to business 4 Total (sum of lines 15, 16, and 17)

1. Average of Wednesdays. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications. 2. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 4. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 5. March 1992 data. p--Preliminary. n.a.--Not available.

-14SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (percent) 1989

1992

- - - - - - - -.

March highs

1992

-. - -.-

- - -.-

FOMC Dec-Jan Mar 31 Lows

Change from: -.--

- - - -.--

-- -- - -

Mar 89 Dec-Jan highs Lows

May 14

-- --- - ---

FOMC Mar 31

Short-term rates

9.85

3.94

3.80

-6.05

-0.14

9.10 9.11 9.05

4.05 4.17 4.31

3.72 3.76 3.81

3.57 3.69 3.90

-5.53 -5.42 -5.15

-0.15 -0.07 0.09

-0.48 -0.48 -0.41

Commercial paper 1-month 3-month

10.05 10.15

4.28 4.28

4.01 3.94

3.83 3.84

-6.22 -6.31

-0.18 -0.10

-0.45 -0.44

Large negotiable CDs 3 1-month 3-month 6-month

10.07 10.32 10.08

4.16 4.23 4.39

3.95 3.89 3.89

3.72 3.87

-6.35 -6.57 -6.21

-0.23 -0.14 -0.02

-0.44 -0.48 -0.52

1-month

10.19

3-month

10.50

4.13 4.25

3.94 3.88

3.69 3.75

-6.50 -6.75

-0.25 -0.13

-0.44 -0.50

11.50

6.50

-5.00

0.00

U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 6.17 9.88 3-year 7.54 9.53 10-year 7.96 9.31 30-year

5.05 6.71 7.39

5.72 7.34 7.87

-4.16 -2.19 -1.44

0.67 0.63 0.48

-0.45 -0.20 -0.09

Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer)

Federal funds

Treasury bills 3 3-month 6-month 1-year

3.75

Eurodollar deposits 4

Bank prime rate

Intermediate- and long-term rates

7.95

6.87

6.53

6.70

-1.25

0.17

-0.17

Corporate--A utility recently offered

10.47

8.87

8.46

8.69

-1.78

0.23

-0.18

Home mortgage rates FHLMC 30-yr. FRM FHLMC 1-yr. ARM

11.22 9.31

8.98 6.19

8.23 5.79

8.75 6.02

-2.47 -3.29

0.52 0.23

-0.23 -0.17

-------------------------

1989 Record highs

Date

Lows Jan 3

1992 FOMC Mar 31 May 14

----------------------.

--------.-------.----------.-------------

Percent change from: Record highs

1989 lows

FOMC Mar 31

-------------------------

Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial 3397.58 231.85 NYSE Composite 418.99 AMEX Composite 644.92 NASDAQ (OTC) 4121.28 Wilshire

5/11/92 1/15/92 2/12/92 2/12/92 1/15/92

2144.64 3235.47 3368.88 227.72 154.00 223.25 391.79 305.24 395.04 576.46 378.56 603.77 2718.59 3961.55 4000.16

-0.84 -1.78 -6.49 -10.62 -2.94

57.08 47.87 28.35 52.28 47.14

4.12 2.00 -0.82 -4.52 0.97

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1/ One-day quotes except as noted. 2/ Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for maintenance period ending May 13, 1992.

3/ Secondary market. 4/ Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5/ Based on one-day Thursday quotes and futures market index changes 6/ Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown.

-15-

THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Developments in Foreign Industrial Countries In Japan, the unemployment rate (s.a.) increased slightly to 2.1 percent in March, while the job offers to applicants ratio (s.a.) declined an additional 0.1 percent, falling 15.6 percent below its year-earlier level.

Errata The following are corrections to some of the calculations made in section IV of Greenbook Part 2: Page IV-12, first paragraph, last sentence should read "However, the Nikkei index recovered from its earlier losses and declined 3-1/2 percent, on balance, during the intermeeting period." Page IV-12, second complete paragraph, first sentence should read "In Canada, from March 31, 1992, through May 13, 1992, the call money rate declined 50 basis points, the three-month rate declined 75 basis points, and the yield on the bellwether bond declined 25 basis points." Page IV-13, first paragraph, last sentence should read "During the intermeeting period sterling rose 4-3/4 percent against the dollar and 3 percent against the mark, stock prices in the United Kingdom rose 12 percent, and the yield on the bellwether bond declined 80 basis points." Page IV-18, third full paragraph, first and second sentences should be replaced with "Equity prices dropped sharply during April, but later rebounded, and declined, on balance, by 3-1/2 percent from March 31 through May 13."

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1992, May 18). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19920519_part1

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19920519_part1,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1992},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19920519_part1},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}