greenbooks · June 30, 1992

Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC

June 26, 1992

SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Real GDP in 1992:Q1. . Income and consumption Housing . . . . . . . . Labor markets. . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .

. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .... . . ... . . . . . . . . . .... ...

1 1 2 2

The market for existing homes. . . . . . . . . . . .. Real gross domestic product and related items .. . . Personal income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Real personal consumption expenditures . . . . . . . .

2 3 4 4

Tables

Charts Personal consumption expenditures. . . . . . . ... Unemployment insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5 6

THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Tables

Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit. . . . . . . . . . Selected financial market quotations . . . . . . . . .

7 8 9

THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Prices of exports and non-oil imports. . .

Import and export price measures

. .

. . . . ...

SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES

THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Real GDP in 1992:Q1 In its final estimate for the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised up slightly its growth from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent

estimate of real GDP

(at an annual rate).

was a small downward adjustment to personal

There

consumption

expenditures, but it was more than offset by upward revisions to most other major components of GDP.

In addition, corporate profits

(with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) are now estimated to have risen $40 billion in the first quarter, an upward revision of about $8

billion from the preliminary estimate.

Income and Consumption Nominal personal

income rose $14

billion at an annual rate in

May, following a slow $3.6 billion increase in April. wages and salaries accounted for most in other labor

A rebound in

of the gain in May.

Increases

income, transfer payments, nonfarm proprietors'

income, and dividends more than offset declines in interest income and farm proprietors' income.

After accounting for taxes and

inflation, real disposable personal income edged up 0.1 percent in May, after falling 0.2 percent in April. Real personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3 percent in May, lifted mainly by higher outlays on motor vehicles.

As suggested by

the May retail sales report, spending for goods other than motor vehicles in April and May was slightly below the first-quarter average. May.

Outlays for services rose slowly for a second month in

Housing Sales of existing homes edged down 1.7 percent in May.

3.43 million units (annual rate), sales in May remained near the three-year high recorded in the March-April period.

The change in

sales volume was small in all regions. Prices of existing homes sold in May were down slightly from a year earlier:

The average sales price was off 1.8 percent, and the

median sales price declined 0.4 percent. over-year price declines since early 1991.

These are the first yearIn May, as in April,

prices were particularly weak in the West. THE MARKET FOR EXISTING HOMES

Sales volume Thousands of units, SAAR (Percent change from previous period)

Sales price Average ($1,000, NSA) (Percent change from year earlier) Median ($1,000, NSA) (Percent change from year earlier)

1992

1991

1992

1991

Mar.

Apr p

Aprr

Mayp

3,220

3,230

3,407

3,510

3,500

3.490

3,430

1.3

5.5

-.3

-.6

-1.7

128.4

126.2

129.8

130.2

129.9

130.6

128.5

n.a.

5.4

4.1

1.2

100.3

99.1

103.1

104.0

102.7

103.3

100.9

5.0

7.5

6.7

5.4

2.2

2.8

-.4

-1.8

1. Because of a change in survey design, average sales prices beginning in January 1991 are not strictly comparable with previous periods. Median prices are not affected by this change. Labor Markets Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 429,000 for the week ended June 13, after holding in the range of 410,000 to 415,000 over the previous five weeks.

The level of insured

unemployment under all regular programs fell about 120,000 to 3.35 million in the week ended June 6.

6/25/92

-3-

REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Percent change from previous period at compound annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted data, measured in 1987 dollars) 1990-Q4 to 1991-Q4 1. Gross domestic product 2.

Final sales

3. 4.

Consumer spending Excluding motor vehicles

5. 6. 7.

Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures

Residential investment

Government purchases

1991-Q4 Final

1992-Q1 Preliminary

1992-Q1 Final

2.4

2.7

-. 5

-. 2

4.6

4.8

.6 1.0

.0 .1

5.4 4.6

5.0 4.4

-3.4 -1.6 -7.8

1.7 3.7 -3.0

3.1 3.5 2.5

-. 9

12.3

8.4

-1.6

-5.4

3.1

2.9

-7.1 -3.7 -14.7

11.7

10.

Exports of goods and services

6.8

9.7

-. 9

2.5

11.

Imports of goods and services

4.6

2.1

-. 2

1.5

ADDENDA:

12. 13. 14.

Nonfarm inventory investment 1 Retail autos 1 Excluding retail autos 1

-13.92 -7.72 -6.2 2

9.2 -8.1 17.3

-18.1 -8.9 -9.2

-16.3 -6.0 -10.3

15.

Net exports of goods and services 1

-20.9 2

-21.3

-22.3

-20.1

16.

Nominal GDP

3.3

2.2

5.5

5.8

17.

GDP fixed-weight price index

3.4

2.1

3.4

3.3

18.

GDP implicit price deflator

3.0

1.7

3.1

19.

Corporate profits 3

306.8

315.6

347.0

355.4

20.

Profit share (percent) 4

5.4

5.5

5.9

6.1

21.

Personal saving rate

5.2

4.9

5.0

Level, billions of 1987 dollars.

Annual average.

With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments; level, billions of dollars.

Economic profit as a share of nominal GNP.

PERSONAL INCOME

(Average monthly change at an annual rate; billions of dollars) 1991

1992

1991

11.3

17.6

21.7

22.3

3.6

14.0

Wages and salaries Private

4.7 3.1

5.6 3.9

9.6 7.0

10.9 10.0

-1.7 -2.5

11.5 10.6

Other labor income

1.4

1.3

1.4

Proprietors' income

2.1

3.7

6.2

10.7

2.2

-7.0

-. 5

2.0

2.2

8.6

-. 1

-8.3

Rent Dividend

.1 .1

2.3 .1

-. 2 .1

Interest

-3.1

-4.9

Transfer payments

7.1

Less: Personal contributions for social insurance

Total personal income

Farm

Mar.

Apr.

May

.4 .3

-1.5 1.1

1.9 1.2

-5.7

-4.7

-4.0

-3.5

9.9

12.0

4.0

6.1

9.3

1.0

1.7

-.1

-.8

-7.2

-22.3

4.0

1.2

12.2

17.1

28.9

44.5

-.4

12.9

1.7

7.1

12.3

20.1

-7.7

3.3

Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income

1992

Memo: Real disposable income

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION

EXPENDITURES

(Percent change from the preceding period)

1991

1992

-Annual ratePersonal consumption expenditures

1992

Mar.

Apr.

May

----Monthly rate----

5.0

-.6

-2.8 -.7

-5.7 -7.7

15.9 15.0

-2.9 -1.0

.1 .4

1.6 .2

Nondurable goods Excluding gasoline

-.9 -.9

-3.9 -4.2

5.3 6.3

-1.3 -1.7

.5 .5

.0 -.2

Services Excluding energy

2.2 2.2

3.7 3.4

2.5 3.8

.1 .1

.1 .0

Memo: Personal saving rate (percent)

5.2

5.0

5.4

5.3

Durable goods Excluding motor vehicles

.4 .1

5.8

Personal Consumption Expenditures for Goods excluding Motor Vehicles

Billions of 1987 dollars 1330

* Quarterly Average 1320 1310 1300 1290 1280 1270

1989

1991

1990

Personal Consumption Expenditures for Motor Vehicles

1992

Billions of 1987 dollars 250

* Quarterly Average -

220

May

Personal Consumption Expenditures for Services

Billions of 1987 dollars 1920

Quarterly Average 1860

May 1800

1740

1989 1989

1990 1990

1991-1992 1991

1992

Unemployment Insurance (Weekly data; seasonally adjusted, BLS basis <1>) Initial Claims

Thousands

750 700 650 600 550

Jun 13

All regular programs

429.4

450 400 350 300 '

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Insured Unemployment

250

1992

Millions

5.0 4.5

All regular programs

4.0 Jun 6 3.35

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

<1> Only the state program component of these series are seasonally adjusted.

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1.5

-7MONETARY AGGREGATES (based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted)

1991 1

-----------1. 2. 3.

8.0 2.8 1.2

Ml M2 M3

1992 Q1

1992 Q2pe

1992 Apr

1992 May

Growth 1992 Q4 91Junpe Jun 9 2pe

Percent change at annual rates--------------------16.5 4.3 2.2

10 0 -13

5.0 -2.1 -3.9

14.8 0.6 -0.4

Levels bil. $ May 92

------------ Percent change at annual rates---------- -Selected components 4. 5. 6.

M1-A Currency Demand deposits

Other checkable deposits

M2 minus M12

9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.

Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual fund shares Commercial banks Savings deposits (including MMOAs) Small time deposits Thrift institutions Savings deposits (including MMDAs) Small time deposits

17. M3 minus M23 Large time deposits 4 At commercial banks, net At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual fund shares Term RPs, NSA Term Eurodollars, NSA

MEMORANDA:

24. Managed liabilities at commercial banks (25+26) 25. Large time deposits, gross 26. Nondeposit funds Net due to related foreign 27. institutions 6 Other 28. 29. U.S. government deposits at commercial 7 banks

5.6

14.9

6.9

10.1

-4

597.9

8.4 3.4

7.4 22.2

6 12N

7.9 6.2

4.8 15.0

7 -15

274.7 315.2

12.4

19.2

114

1.7

22.6

356.6

0.0

-3%

-4.7

-4.8

-41.0

-61.2

19¾ -29 -29

-13.1 4.5 13.8 -7.0 -12.6 15.8 -39.3

3.0 -3.3 7.8 -17.2 -2.9 19.4 -24.3

-9

-13.0

-5.1

-184

-20.9

-14

-17.5

-37n

-36.3

-13.3 -7.2 -42.3

25.3 -22.8 -32.7

35.5 -10.0 -31.5

-7.9

15.4

3.9 7.1 13.3 1.1 -6.9 9.3 -16.8

1.0 0.9 19.2 -18.9 -3.6

-5.6 -11.7 -5.1

22.4

-24.2 -7.2

-31.7

-20.4 -18.2 -29.6

33.4 -21.7 -10.6

27.0 -6.0 -25.7

-364

12¾ -134

-6A

20% -3% -7

-4

2515.1

67.0

355.0 1265.7 707.9 557.8 825.6 414.6 411.0 -5

706.6 401.2 329.9 71.2

33 -13 -15

194.8 71.7 55.6

----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars---

-0.6 -0.2 -0.5 0.4 -0.9 0.2

-2.8 -5.7 2.8

-34 -4i 1

-4.7 -7.1 2.4

-2.4 -3.2 0.8

2.0 0.8

3J -2%

4.5 -2.1

5.3 -4.5

2 -2

55.1 237.4

1¾

-1.9

-2.9

17.0

-1.5

689.1 396.6 292.5

Amounts shown are froe fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Nontransactions M2 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. The non-MZ component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. institutions. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift Oollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money Iincluding borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor items). Data are partially estimated. 7. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at comercial banks. pe - preliminary estimate 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT 1 (Percentage change at annual rate, based on seasonally adjusted data)

Category

Dec. 1990 to Dec. 1991

1991 Q4

1992 Q1

1992 Mar.

1992 Apr.

1992 May.

Levels bil.$ 1992 May.

Commercial bank credit 1. Total loans and securities at banks 2.

Securities

U.S. government

Other

Loans

3.9

7.0

2.1

2.7

6.6

8.5

20.1

11.8

773.4

16.6

24.7

15.8

598.9

6.2

-2.7

174.5

5.2

-0.8

2,863.5

17.6

24.4

23.8

30.3

1.4

6.6

-7.9

1.1

0.5

0.6

-0.2

-5.4

-2.9

-2.1

-6.3

-4.7

-5.9

-7.3

602.2

2.9

2.5

2.4

1.5

1.6

1.4

881.1

-5.0

359.7

-0.2

11.1

-18.3

2,090.1

Business

Real estate

Consumer

-3.9

-4.1

-0.8

-4.6

-3.0

Security

21.9

36.0

44.0

71.5

89.3

-59.1

61.8

Other

-3.0

-13.3

-12.8

185.3

10.

6.3

4.3

1.9

Short- and intermediate-term business credit 11.

Business loans net of bankers acceptances

-2.5

-2.3

-6.4

-4.6

-5.6

-7.8

595.6

Loans at foreign branches 2

-1.6

34.2

-40.9

-30.8

0.0

-5.3

22.7

13.

Sum of lines 11 and 12

-2.4

-0.9

-7.8

-5.5

-5.4

-7.7

618.3

14.

Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms

-10.4

-6.3

14.9

18.9

-5.1

-12.7

139.7

15.

Sum of lines 13 and 14

-3.9

-1.9

-3.8

-1.3

-5.2

-8.6

758.0

16.

Bankers acceptances, 3 U.S. trade-related

-16.2

-4.2

-22.9

-31.0

-18.2

-27.7

25.4

1.4

-4.2

-1.9

-9.5

-9.6

n.a.

297.55

-2.9

-2.6

-3.7

-4.3

-6.8

n.a.

1,087.05

12.

17. 18.

Finance company 4 loans to business Total (sum of lines 15, 16, and 17)

1. Average of Wednesdays. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications. 2. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms-by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 4. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 5. April 1992 data. p--Preliminary. n.a.--Not available.

SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (percent) 1989 March March highs

1992 - - ---

1992 - - -

FOMC Dec-Jan May 19 Lows

Jun 25

Change from: - - - -- - - Mar 89 Dec-Jan FOMC highs Lows May 19

Short-term rates Federal funds 2

9.85

3.80

3.94

3.72

Treasury bills 3 3-month 6-month 1-year

9.10

9.05

3.54 3.62 3.81

3.72 3.76 3.81

10.05 10.15

3.81 3.82

Large negotiable CDs 3 1-month 3-month 6-month

10.07 10.32 10.08

Eurodollar deposits 1-month 3-month Bank prime rate

-6.13

-0.22

-0.08

3.62

-5.48

3.70

3.88

-5.41 -5.17

-0.10 -0.06 0.07

0.08 0.08 0.07

4.01 3.94

3.87 3.88

-6.18 -6.27

-0.14 -0.06

0.06 0.06

3.74 3.75 3.85

3.95 3.89 3.89

3.81 3.83 3.90

-6.26 -6.49 -6.18

-0.14 -0.06 0.01

0.07 0.08 0.05

10.19 10.50

3.75 3.81

3.94 3.88

3.75 3.81

-6.44 -6.69

-0.19 -0.07

0.00 0.00

11.50

6.50

-5.00

0.00

U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 5.59 9.88 3-year 7.20 9.53 10-year 7.77 9.31 30-year

5.05 6.71 7.39

5.41 7.14 7.78

-4.47 -2.39 -1.53

0.36 0.43 0.39

-0.18 -0.06

Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer)

9.11

Commercial paper 1-month 3-month

Intermediate- and long-term rates

0.01

7.95

6.70

6.53

6.58

-1.37

0.05

-0.12

Corporate--A utility recently offered

10.47

8.60

8.46

8.64

-1.83

0.18

0.04

Home mortgage rates 6 FHLMC 30-yr. FRM FHLMC 1-yr. ARM

11.22 9.31

8.64 5.97

8.23 5.79

8.48 5.86

-2.74 -3.45

0.25 0.07

-0.16 -0.11

1989 Record highs

Date

Lows Jan 3

1992 FOMC May 19 Jun 25

Percent change from: Record highs

1989 lows

FOMC May 19

53.13 43.85 22.58 44.81 42.48

-3.35 -3.40 -4.64 -5.16 -3.79

Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial 3413.21 231.85 NYSE Composite 418.99 AMEX Composite 644.92 NASDAQ (OTC) 4121.28 Wilshire

6/1/92 1/15/92 2/12/92 2/12/92 1/15/92

2144.64 3397.99 3284.01 154.00 229.32 221.53 305.24 392.37 374.15 548.20 378.56 578.05 2718.59 4025.84 3873.33

-3.79 -4.45 -10.70 -15.00 -6.02

..............................................................................................

1/ One-day quotes except as noted. 2/ Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for maintenance period ending June 24. 1992.

3/ Secondary market. 4/ Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5/ Based on one-day Thursday quotes and futures market index changes 6/ Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown.

-10THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY

Prices of Exports and Non-oil Imports In May, prices of non-oil imports fell for the third consecutive month, the result of declines in prices of imports of foods, feeds, and beverages, automotive products, and capital goods. The three consecutive months of declining prices of non-oil imports follow six consecutive months of increase and likely reflect a lagged adjustment to the rise in the exchange value of the dollar in the first quarter. Prices of exports increased 0.3 percent in May, with prices of nonagricultural exports rising 0.5 percent.

Prices of exports of

industrial supplies and consumer goods posted the largest increases in May.

Prices of exports of industrial supplies have risen for

four consecutive months, paced by increases in prices of exports of building materials.

-11IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE MEASURES (percent change from previous period, annual rate) Year 1992-Q1 1991-01

Quarters 1991 1992 Q3 Q4 Q1 (Quarterly Average, AR)

Months 1992 Apr May (Monthly Rates)

--------------------- BLS Prices--------------------Imports, Total

-1.9

-3.5

5.2

-1.5

-0.2

0.3

Foods, Feeds, Bev. Industrial Supplies

3.2 -10.0

-3.5 -6.7

3.7 3.1

10.1 -15.7

-3.4 1.1

-2.5 1.9

Ind Supp Ex Oil* Capital Goods Automotive Products Consumer Goods

-2.9 0.2 2.0 1.5

-7.3 -4.4 -1.0 -0.6

-4.3 6.5 7.4 5.1

4.8 4.6 0.7 6.2

0.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4

0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.3

-22.8 0.6

-5.9 -3.2

19.5 3.9

-46.5 4.5

4.1 -0.7

6.2 -0.2

-0.6 4.3 -7.4 2.0 2.2 3.0

-2.5 -5.8 -8.0 1.6 2.1 -2.3

2.5 17.6 -3.0 2.2 3.0 2.5

-1.3 -1.2 -6.4 0.6 1.6 5.9

-0.2 -2.2 0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.3

0.3 -0.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.6

1.1 -1.1

-8.5 -1.8

10.8 1.2

-3.3 -1.1

-1.8 0.2

0.2 0.5

Memo: Oil Non-oil

Exports, Total Foods, Feeds, Bev. Industrial Supplies Capital Goods Automotive Products Consumer Goods Memo: Agricultural Nonagricultural

------------- Prices in the NIPA Accounts-----------Fixed-Weight Imports, Total Oil Non-oil Exports, Total Ag Nonag Deflators Imports, Total Oil Non-oil Exports, Total Ag Nonag

-1.8 -24.7 1.0

-1.4 -1.2 -1.4

4.0 22.0 2.5

-0.4 -49.4 6.2

-0.2 1.3 -0.4

-3.6 -9.1 -2.9

2.6 11.6 1.9

1.8 -5.1 2.6

-3.4 -24.8 -0.9

-2.9 -1.5 -3.2

4.0 21.7 1.9

-3.2 -49.4 2.9

-1.5 -1.7 -1.5

-3.9 -6.3 -3.9

0.7 6.3 0.3

-0.0 -6.1 0.5

*/ Months not for publication.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC

BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM DIVISION OF RESEARCH AND STATISTICS

1992

Date:

June 26.

To:

The Federal Open Market Committee

From:

Michael Prell

Subject:

Greensheets

Attached are revised Greensheets that incorporate the revised NIPA data and show projections in which the levels have been adjusted for the differences between the preliminary and final first-quarter estimates.

Strictly Confidential (FR) Class II FOMC

STAFF PROJECTIONS OF CHANGES IN GDP, PRICES, AND UNEMPLOYMENT (Percent, annual rate)

June 26, 1992

Unenemployment Nominal GDP Interval

5/14/92

6/26/92

7.0 5.1 2.9 4.5 5.7

7.0 5.1 2.9 4.5 5.6

GDP fixed-weight price index

Real GDP 5/14/92

6/26/92

Consumer price index 1

rate (level except as noted)

5/14/92

6/26/92

5/14/92

6/26/92

5/14/92

6/26/92

4.3 4.3 4.0 2.8 3.0

4.3 4.3 4.0 2.8 2.9

4.8 5.4 4.2 3.3 3.3

5.3 5.5 6.7 7.1 6.8

5.3 5.5 6.7 7.2 6.9

4.8 3.9

5.6 7.0

-.1

4.4 2.4

2.9 3.1

ANNUAL 19892 19902 19912 1992 1993

2.5 1.0 -. 7 1.9 2.9

2.5 1.0 -. 7 1.9 2.8

1.7 1.6 .2

042

1.7 1.6 .2 -3.9

012 022

-2.5 1.4

QUARTERLY 1990

012

Q22 Q32

1991

1992

-2.5

1.4 1.8 .4

Q32 Q42

1.8

012 02 03

2.0 2.0 3.1 3.1

2.7

2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8

2.8

1.7

1.7 -1.8

04 1993

-3.9

02 03 04

2.0

2.3 2.7

2.9 3.1

3.2

TWO-QUARTER 3 1990

1991

1992

1993

022

6.2

Q42

1.9

Q22 Q42

3.5 3.1

4.9 6.0

5.3 5.2

Q2 Q4

5.7 5.2

5,8 5.7

FOUR-QUARTER 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

1. 2. 3. 4.

-1.8 -. 6 1.1

2.9 3.2

-. 6 1.1

2.9 3.2

4.4 2.4

3.1 2.7

Q42 Q42

Q42 Q4 Q4

For all urban consumers. Actual. Percent change frcm two quarters earlier, for unemployment rate, change In percentage points. Percent change from four quarters earlier, for unemployment rate, change in percentage points.

-. 2

-. 1

-. 2 -. 2

-. 3 -. 2

Strictly Confidential Class II FOMC

(FR)

REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS, ANNUAL VALUES

(Seasonally adjusted, annual rate)

June 26, 1992 Projected

Item

Unit1

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Nominal GDP Real GDP

Bill. $ Bill. 87$

4038.7 4279.8

4268.6 4404.5

4539.9

4900.4 4718.6

5244.0 4836.9

5513.8

5672.6

4848.8

5928.4 4942.0

6259.9

4884.9

Real GDP Gross domestic purchases Final sales

3.3

2.2 2.1 3.3 3.0

3.3

1.7

1.0

-. 1 -. 9 1.2

.3 .1 -.5

-.3

-.5

2.5 2.7 2.3 3.3

3.0

2.5 4.2

.6 -2.8 --9 2.2

2.8 6.2 1.8 2.5

2.8 5.8

2.0

.3 -2.7 -1.0 1.9

.5 -. 1 1.7 -7.7

.6 3.1 -4.6 -11.8

-7.1 -3.7 -14.7 -.9

5.2 8.1 -1.8 7.0

5.6 7.7 -. 1

4.0 5.8

6.7

-.4 -1.5 -4.5 .3

-.8 -4.1

EXPENDITURES

change

3.8 3.8

Private dom. final purch.

3.9

Personal cons. expend. Durables

4.0 6.3

4.0 12.5

2.7 4.2

Business fixed invest. Producers' dur. equip. Nonres. structures Res. structures

3.1 2.2

-5.7

Exports

Imports Government purchases

Nondurables Services

4.6

Bill. 87$

Change in bus. invent. Nonfarm

change

2.1

4.2

1.2

-2.6

8.5

3.3

1.4

2.5

3.7

3.2 3.7

-. 8 ..8

-.7

-14.1

3.0 2.4 4.4

5.5 9.1

-1.2

-. 3

9.9 6.7

12.6 4.7

13.5

5.2

5.9 6.4

4.1 3.8 3.7

3.3

.2 -3.4

22.1 -145.3

Nominal GDP

4.2

1.5 .6

19.8

Net exports

2.7 1.9

-3.1

7.0 5.4

State and local

4.5 3.9

11.1

4.3

Federal Defense

4540.0

7.0

4.4

3.7 4.5 2.9

3.6

-3.2 2.9

8.6 10.6 -155.1

26.3 32.7 -143.0

-104.0

4.7

8.0

7.7

19.9

26.9

10.9 2.7

7.6

6.8

-. 4

4.6

1.6 -1.2 -2.0 3.6

3.2 2.3

-1.6 -3.1

.8 3.8

-4.7 -.5

32.6 33.3

.2 -1.5 -51.4

-13.9 -13.9 -20.9

-75.7

5.9

1.6 1.0 -28.6

4.1

3.3

5.3

108.3 5.3

109.8 5.. 5

108.3

108.6 7.2

1.1

.3 82.3

5079.5

3.1 2.6

3.5

2.0

2.6

8.6 6.8

-6.9

1.4 27.3

25,4

-34.9 5.8

EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION

Unemployment rate

Millions %

Industrial prod. index

%change

Nonfarm payroll employ.

Capacity util. rate-mfg. Housing starts Auto sales in U.S. North American produced Other

Millions

97.5

7.2 1.9 79.5 1.74

11.04

8.20 2.84

99.5 7.0

102.2

105.5

6.2

5.5

6.5 81.4

83.9

83.9 1.38

3.18

1.49 10.63 7.54 3.09

4544.5 8.1

4908.2 7.8

5248.2 5.9

5.5 2.8 6.0

7.4

7.1 3.3

6.7

2.1

4.3

4.4

-7.1 6.4

29.7 7.0

10.2 7.4

-11.5 6.7

1.4 79.0 1.81 11.45 8.22 3.24

1.62 10.24

7.07

4.5

9.91 7.09

2.83

6.7 -. 5

78.2

1.19 9.51

1.01

6.90 2.60

6.14 2.25

5524.6

5685.8 3.0 2.7

8.39

3.0 78.2

110.4 6.9

4.0 79.5

1.22 8.49 6.31 2.19

1.34

5948.4 5.4 5.0 2.3 5.0

6283.1 5.8

9.16 6.93

2.24

INCOME AND SAVING Bill. $ % change

Nominal GNP

Nominal GNP Nominal personal income Real disposable income Personal saving rate

% change

Corp. profits, IVA&CCAdj

4053.6 6.8 6.6 1.9 6.5 9.0 6.9

Profit share of GNP

Bill. $

Federal surpl./def. State/local surpl./def. Ex. social ins. funds

4277.8 4.4

1.4

-124.2 41.1 -19.2

4.3

6.5 1.0 5.1

5.2

-11.5

6.6

5.8

5.4

24.3 6.3

-165.3

-201.6 30.0 -35.3

-282.2 47.1 -18.7

6.4 3.1 5.1 7.7 6.5

-257.7

-201.1 54.3

-151.8 40.1

-136.6

9.2

1.5

-14.7

-18.4

3.6

2.6 2.5

3.3 3.4

4.2 4.2

4.2 4.4

3.0 3.4

2.8 2.9

2.6 2.9

3.5 3.5

2.3

4.2 4.6 4.4

5.1 6.3 5.3

3.0 4.5

3.0 3.5 3.7'

2.8 3.1

3.9

4.1 4.3 4.5

2.6

4.3

3.9 4.5 4.3

3.9

3.2

3.3

4.8

4.6

4.4

3.8

3.5

.5 3.8 3.3

-1.5 3.0 4.6

.4 6.5 6.0

1.3 3.3 2.1

1.8 3.4 1.6

1.5 3.7 2.2

-181.4

56.1

38.4

25.7 -38.1

60.9 -6.6

PRICES AND COSTS GDP implicit deflator GDP fixed-wt. price index

% change

3.6

Gross domestic purchases fixed-wt. price index CPI Ex. food and energy ECI, hourly compensation

Nonfarm business sector Output per hour

Compensation per hour Unit labor cost

4.7 3.9

1.3

1.2 4.6 3.4

1. Percent changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter.

2. Private-industry workers.

3.2

Strictly Confidential (FR) Class II FOMC

REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS, QUARTERLY VALUES (Seasonally adjusted, annual rate except as noted)

1989

Item

Unit

June 26, 1992

1990 Q3

1991

EXPENDITURES Nominal GDP Real GDP

Bill. $ Bill. 87$

Real GDP Cross domestic purchases Final sales Private dom. final purch.

% change

5139.9 4809.8

5218.5 4832.4

5277.3 4845.6

5340.4 4859.7

5422.4 4880.8

5504.7 4900.3

2.5

1.9

1.1

1.2

1.7

1.6

1.1

1.7

1.3

.8 -.4

2.1 .4

2.7 3.1

.4 -.7

-.5 -1.5

Personal cons. expend. Durables Nondurables Services

-.2 -5.0 .1 .8

1.0 5.9 -1.4 1.2

4.1 13.8 3.1 2.3

.1 -15.5 1.5 3.6

2.1 16.7 -.3 .3

Business fixed invest. Producers' dur. equip. Nonres. structures Res. structures

.9 -1.0 4.9 -5.9

2.7 7.3 -6.2 -11.9

.8 -2.5 8.0 -5.6

-2.5 -3.9 .4 -7.3

Exports Imports

12.4 -6.1

17.2 6.9

.9 6.8

-3.4 -9.5 -12.8 1.3

5.2 7.9 5.6 3.4

41.2 35.8 -81.2

Government purchases Federal Defense State and local

5570.5 4903.3

5557.5 4855.1

5589.0 4824.0

5652.6 4840.7

-3.9

-2.5

1.4

1.3

-6.5

-3.5

.9 2.5

-.3 -4.7

-2.4 -4.8

1.2 .8

.0 -11.8 -1.5 4.1

2.8 1.5 1.3 4.1

-3.5 -14.0 -3.4 -.9

-1.3 -11.9 -.3 .7

1.4 -1.8 .9 2.5

7.1 6.4 8.5 .6

-4.6 -3.2 -7.3 -15.7

8.5 11.5 2.5 -16.2

-7.7 -1.6 -19.7 -15.0

-17.4 -18.1 -15.7 -24.8

-3.3 .0 -10.3 3.1

13.7 4.0

8.8 -2.5

4.8 1.7

-. 4 9.6

17.7 -9.3

-7.4 -15.4

19.4 13.3

4.1 5.1 10.1 3.3

.7 -7.2 -9.2 6.6

6.4 5.9 2.3 6.7

2.2 4.3 3.3 .8

-.3 -5.0 -7.9 3.2

4.6 4.5 5.9 4.6

2.8 9.9 10.9 -1.9

38.9 33.4 -71.9

20.2 25.9 -79.8

30.0 38.1 -70.0

-4.0 -5.5 -56.0

22.1 15.5 -52.5

13.9 9.9 -65.7

.6 4.6 2.7

-.1 1.0 -3.3 -.7

Change in bus. invent. Nonfarm Net exports

Bill. 87$

Nominal GDP

% change

7.8

6.3

4.6

4.9

6.3

6.2

4.9

-.9

2.3

4.6

Nonfarm payroll employ. Unemployment ratel

Millions

107.7

108.2

108.5

109.0

109.8

110.2

109.9

109.3

108.6

108.2

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.3

5.6

6.0

6.5

6.7

Industrial prod. index Capacity util. rate-mfg. 1

t change

2.7

2.8

-1.2

4.2

3.9

-7.0

-9.7

2.6

84.7

84.5

83.7

82.9

82.7

82.8

82.9

80.8

78.0

77.9

Housing starts Auto sales in U.S. North American produced Other

Millions

-31.2 -25.7 -31.2

-32.8 -31.1 -18.6

-30.4 -30.8 -12.3

EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION

1.49

1.36

1.35

1.34

1.46

1.20

1.13

1.03

.92

1.00

10.03

10.26

10.20

9.09

9.92

9.53

9.60

9.00

8.33

8.43

7.08 2.95

7.26 3.00

7.36 2.84

6.56 2.53

7.12 2.80

6.82 2.71

7.08 2.51

6.60 2.39

6.09 2.25

6.11 2.32

5576.8

5583.2

5611.7

5660.6

INCOME AND SAVING Nominal GNP Nominal GNP Nominal personal income Real disposable income 1 Personal saving rate

Bill. $ t change

5144.3

5217.7

5279.8

5350.9

5432.7

5505.5

7.3 10.8 3.6 5.2

5.8 4.5 -2.6 4.3

4.8 3.7 1.9 3.7

5.5 7.8 3.0 4.4

6.3 9.8 4.5 4.9

5.5 6.6 1.6 5.4

5.3 5.7 .2 4.8

.5 3.9 -2.0 5.2

2.1 .3 -1.7 5.1

3.5 4.5 2.6 5.4

Corp. profits, IVA&CCAdj: Profit share of GNP I

t change

-12.2 7.1

-5.6 6.9

-16.6 6.5

-11.4 6.3

6.7 6.3

-.5 6.2

-39.4 5.4

-4.8 5.3

8.4 5.4

1.9 5,4

Federal govt. surpl./def. State/local surpl./def. Ex. social ins. funds

Bill. $

-114.5

-110.5

-128.4

-143.3

-160.8

-156.9

-149.7

-193.6

-146.4

-206.7

42.4 -16.4

45.1 -14.8

42.6 -18.3

34.4 -27.4

30.3 -32.2

28.5 -34.9

26.1 -38.2

18.0 -46.9

20.4 -44.7

27.6 -38.0

PRICES AND COSTS GDP implicit deflator GDP fixed-wt.

price

* change

index

Cross domestic purchases fixed-wt. price index CPI Ex. food and energy ECI,

hourly corpensation 2

Nonfarm business sector Output per hour Compensation per hour Unit labor cost 1. Not at an annual rate.

-3.3 2.9

-2.0 1.3

-.2 3.6

6.5

3.3

3.8

2. Private-industry workers.

2.7 8.9 6.1

4.7 4.8

3.2 3.2

5.0 7.0 5.9

5.8 6.9 4.2

4.7

3.8

-1.2 7.1 9.4

.2 4.8 4.6

Strictly Confidential (FR) Class II FOMC

REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS, QUARTERLY VALUES (Seasonally adjusted, annual rate except as noted)

June 26, 1992

Projected 1991

Item

1992

1993

Units

Nominal GDP Real GDP

Bill. $ Bill. 87$

5709.2 4862.7

5739.7 4868.0

5820.6 4900.9

5890.2 4925.6

5960.7 4953.9

Real GDP Gross domestic purchases

I change

1.8 3.4

.4 -.4

2.7 2.6

2.0 2.8

-.7 1.9

-.2 .1

4.8 5.1

2.3 9.5 .0 2.2

.0 -5.7 -3.9 3.7

-3.7 6.7 -23.9 10.9

Exports Imports

7.3 22.3

Government purchases

-3.4 -8.1 -8.9 -.1

6042.1 4987.6

6132.3 5022.5

6215.8 5059.0

6301.9 5097.9

6389.8 5138.6

2.3 2.6

2.7 2.7

2.8 2.9

2.9 3.0

3.1 3.2

3.2 3.1

.5 1.9

1.8 2.7

2.3 3.4

2.3 3.3

2.5 3.4

2.8 3.6

3.1 3.6

5.0 15.9 5.3 2.5

1.0 -1.0 -.8 2.5

2.3 4.2 1.1 2.5

2.8 6.5 1.7 2.5

2.8 5.9 1-9 2.5

2.8 5.9 2-0 2.6

2.8 5.5 2.0 2.6

2.9 5.9 2.0 2.6

-3.4 -1.6 -7.8 12.3

3.1 3.5 2.5 11.7

6.4 10.6 -3.6 5.9

5.9 9.6 -3.1 1.6

5.4 8.6 -2.8 9.2

5.4 8.3 -2.1 6.4

5.3 7.7 -1.2 7.2

5.9 7.5 1.4 11.4

5.9 7.4 1.8 9.4

9.7 2.1

2.5 1.5

3.0 9.5

4.8 6.9

5.7 5.4

6.3 6.6

6.7 7.1

6.9 7.5

7.0 5.8

2.9 1.1 -3.4 4.1

-1.4 -.6 -3.7 -1.8

-.9 -.9 -2.4 -1.0

-2.3 -5.4 -8.6 -.1

-1.9 -5.1 -8.3 .4

-1.0 -4.4 -7.3 1.3

-.3 -3.8 -6.5 1.9

.1 -3.0 -5.3 2.1

EXPENDITURES

Final sales

Private don.

final purch.

Personal cons. expend. Durables Nondurables Services Business fixed invest. Producers' dur. equip. Nonres. structures Res. structures

Federal

Defense State and local Change in bus. invent. Nonfarn Net exports

Bill. 87$

Nominal GDP

-5.4 -13.6 -15.7 .8

7.6

-26.6

1.4

8.2

13.2

20.3

26.0

30.3

32.6

-2.8 -31.1

9.2 -21.3

-16.3 -20.1

.8 -29.3

7.3 -32.6

12.0 -32.6

18.7 -33.5

24.3 -34.7

28.3 -36.3

30.4 -35.0

i change

4.1

2.2

5.8

4.9

5.6

6.1

5.6

5.7

Nonfarm payroll employ. Unenployment rateI

Millions

108.3 6.8

108.2 6.9

108.1 7.2

108.5 7.3

108.8 7.3

109.2 7.2

109.6 7.1

110.1 6.9

110.6 6.8

111.2 6.7

Industrial prod. index

I change

6.6 78.7

-.7 78.2

-2.8 77.3

5.8 78.1

4.2 78.4

5.0 78.9

4.7 79.3

4.2 79.4

3.7 79.6

3.5 79.8

Millions

1.04

1.10

1.26

1.17

1.22

1.26

1.29

1.32

1.36

1.39

8.60 6.31 2.29

8.19 6.06 2.13

8.28 6.03 2.25

8.41 6.25 2.16

8.55 6.40 2.15

8.73 6.55 2.18

8.90 6.70 2.20

9.07 6.85 2.22

9.25 7.00 2.25

9.43 7.15 2.28

5720.1 4.3

5750.7 2.2

5840.7 6.4

5908.6 4.7

5982.4 5.1

6062.7 5.4

6155.9 6.4

6238.5 5.5

6326.8 5.8

6411.2 5.4

2.7 .3 5.0

3.5 .9 5.2

5.3 3.8 5.0

44. 2.1 5.3

4 .4 .6 4.9

6.1 2.7 4.9

7.4 3.8 5.1

5.9 2.7 5.1

5.9 2.6 5.0

6.4 3.1 5.1

3.5 5.4

13.0 5.5

60.8 6.1

14.9 6.2

8.8 6.3

18.8 6.5

7.3 6.5

8.6 6.5

3.4 6.5

11.6 6.6

-210.2

-243.1

-284.4

-292.2

-278.9

-273.3

-272.8

-263.6

-249.8

-244.8

31.8 -33.8

40.3 -24.8

38.9 -26.2

44.5 -21.1

51.2 -14.8

53.8 -12.6

58.1 -8.7

59.0 -8.2

63.0 -4.7

EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION

Capacity util. rate-mfg

Housing starts Auto sales in U.S. North American produced Other INCOME AND SAVING Nominal GNP Nominal GNP Nominal personal income Real disposable income Personal saving rate I

Bill. $ t change

Corp. profits. IVA&CCAdJ Profit share of GNPI

* change a1.

Federal govt. surpl./def.

State/local surpl./def. Ex. social ins. funds

63.5 -4.8

PRICES AND COSTS 1.7

3.1

GDP fixed-wt. price index

2.1

3.3

2.7 2.7

2.5 2.8

2.8 2.9

3.2 3.4

2.5 2.7

Gross domestic purchases fixed-wt. price index CPI Ex. food and energy

2.2 3.6 3.7

3.0 2.9 3.9

3.0 3.6 4.0

3.3 4.1 3.5

2.9 3.4 3.4

3.1 3.0 3.3

2.7 3.1 3.2

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

1.3 3.7 2.4

1.7 3.7 2.0

1.4 4.0 2.6

a change

GDP implicit deflator

ECI, hourly compensation

Nonfarm business sector Output per hour Compensation per hour Unit labor cost annual rate. 1. rate. an annual Not at at an 1. Not

1.7 3.5

1.3 2.2

1.7

2. Private-industry workers. 2. Private-industry workers.

1.5 3.6 2.1

1.6 3.6 2.0

Strictly Confidential Class II FOMC

NET CHANGES IN REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS1 (Billions of 1987 dollars)

(FR)

1989 Item

1990

-48.2

-31.1

16.7

-82.7

-43.7

11.3 25.1

-3.1 -48.0

-29.5 -48.7

-.2 -14.0 -4.1 17.8

22.6 1.6 3.4 17.7

-29.4 -16.3 -9.0 -4.2

-10.7 -13.2

9.4 5.7 3.7 .3

-6.4 -3.0 -3.4 -8.7

11.2 10.1 1.1 -8.6

-11.0 -1.5 -9.6 -7.6

-25.4 -18.2 -7.1 -12.6

9.8 12.2 -2.4

-34.0 -43.6 9.6

26.1 21.0 5.2

-8.2 -5.6 -2.7

-45.1 -35.6 -9.5

-1.6 -5.4 3.8

9.8 15.3 5.4

14.0 10.4 -3.5

3.5 5.9 2.3

-13.2 -.5 12.9

34.5 20.9 -13.7

12.6, -10.0 -22.6

1.5 -7.0 -6.8

14.1 5.4 1.6 3.7 8.8

Real CDOP Gross domestic purchases

30.1

32.6

13.2

8.6

13.3

21.1

Final sales

9.8 -4.1

25.0 4,3

Personal cone. expend. Durables Nondurablea Services

-2.0 -5.6

14.1

21.1

19.5

3.0

4.3

7.1

16.0

16.2

31.9 30.7

4.3 -7.0

55.1 27.0

-6,7 -15.3

7.7 6,3

32.5 14.4

.5 -18.7

.3 3.4

-3.8 5.1

8.1 10.0

3.9 15.3

17.2 17.1 -.9 1.1

Business fixed invest. Producers' dur. equip. Nonres. structures Res. structures

1.2 -.9 2.1 -3.4

3.6 6.4 -2.8 -6.9

1.1 -2.3 3.4 -3.1

-3.4 -3.6 .2 -4.0

change In bus. invent. Nonfarm Farm

20.3 5.3 15.1

-2.3 -2.4 .0

-18.7 -7.5 -11.2

Net exports Exports Imports

21.5 13.0 -8.5

9.3 18.3 8.9

-7.9 1.0 9.0

Private dom. final purch.

Government purchases

Federal Defense Nondefenee State and local 1. Annual changes are from Q4 to 04.

-. 2

8.5

1992

1991 Q1

June 26,

-. 6

-4.9 -5.8 .9

4.3

1988

1989

1990

1991

10.4

154.2 120.9

80.0 47.3

-4.6 -43.4

12.9 3.0

14.4 8.3

193.1 158.3

71.0 23.9

56.6 -11.2

-26.0 -21.3

128.2 34.5 32.2 61.4

38.7 -3.6 8.5 33.8

10.2 -11.6 -10.6 32.4

28.2 30.4 -2.2 2.0

2.5 -.4 2.9 -17.4

3.2 11.3 -8.2 -24.6

-38.9 -13.9 -25.0 -1.6

-39.0 -31.6 -7.4

9.1 7.6 1.5

-61.2 -63.8 2.6

38.8 34.9 3.9

33.3 52.1 18.8

32.7 47.6 14.8

38.8 36.7 -2.0

9.9 35.5 25.6

1.5 -13.2 -9.3 -3.9 14.7

14.4 -4.5 -5.8 1.3 18.8

29.0 8.7 2.1 6.6 20.4

-14.6 -11.9 -13.3 1.4 -2.6

-. 8

3.2

2.4 .3 2.1 6.3 23.2 16.9 -. 2

1.0 -2.4 3.4 -1.0

19.3 -11.8

-8.9 40.0

NET CHANGES IN REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS 1 (Billions of 1987 dollars)

Strictly Confidential (FR) Class II FOMC

June 26, 1992

Projected

Item Real GDP

final purch.

Personal cons. Durables Nondurables

expend.

Services Businese fixed invest. Producers' dur. equip. Nonres. structures Res. structures Change in bus. invent. Nonfarm Farm Net exports Exports Imports

1990

1991

1992

40.7 39.5

-4.6 -43.4

12.9 3.0

119.6 130.9

151.d 153.5

34.6 36.9

38.4 37.0

56.6 -11.2

-26.0 -21.3

114.1 129.3

131.6 141.1

23.8 6.4 5.3 12.1

23.6 6.1 5.3 12.2

24.2 6.6 5.3 12.3

10.2 -11.6 -10.6 32.4

19.3 -11.8 -8.9 40.0

90.1 25.7 18.6 45.8

94.4 25.4 20.8 48.1

3.1

7.0 7.4 -. 4 3.5

7.9 7.4 .5 5.5

3.2 11.3 -8.2 -24.6

-38.9 -13.9 -25.0 -1.6

26.3 29.0 -2.6 12.8

30.0 30.1 -.1 16.7

5.0 4.7 .3

7.1 6.7 .4

5.7 5.6 .1

4.3 4.0 .3

-61.2 -63.8 2.6

38.8 34.9 3.9

5.6 2.8 2.8

19.4 10.4 1.0

.0 8.0 8.0

-.9 8.9 9.9

-1.2 9.6 10.8

-1.6 10.0 11.6

1.2 10.3 9.1

38.8 36.7 -2.0

9.9 35.5 25.6

-11.3 22.1 33.4

-2.5

29.0 8.7 2.1 6.6 20.4

-14.6 -11.9 -13.3 1.4 -2.6

-4.0 -5.5 -12.2 6.7 1.4

-7.1 -14.9 -17.6 2.7 7.8

32.9 31.7

24.7 33.9

28.4 31.7

33.7 33.6

34.9 35.8

36.6 37.7

38.9 40.5

57.2 49.3

6.7 19.0

21.6 27.1

28.7 33.9

27.8 33.0

30.9 34.2

40.2 15.5 13.4 11.3

8.4 -1.1 -2.1 11.5

18.8 4.4 2.9 11.4

22.8 6.8 4.4 11.5

22.9 6.3 5.0 11.6

-4.4 -1.5 -3.0

3.9 3.1 .9

8.0 9.3 -1.3

7.5 8.7 -1.1

6.9 7.9 -1.0

7.1 7.8 -.8

4,5

5.2

5.1

2.7

4.2

30.5 28.0 2.5

7.5 12.0 -4.5

-24.2 -25.5 1.3

18.0 17.1 .9

6.8 6.5 .3

-18.8 9.5 28.3

9.8 12.8 3.0

1.2 3.4 2.2

-9.2 4.1. 13.3

-3.3 6.6 9.9

-3.2

-2.2 -. 8 -1.6 .8

-4.3 -4.9 -5.5

-1.4

33 0

5.3 -4.5

Gross domestic purchase Final sales Private dom.

Projected

1993

1992

1991

S-8.6 ,-3.3 .7 18.4~: 18.8 9.4 -.1 9.6

-4.8 5.8 -10.5

Government purchases Federal Defense Nondefense

State and local

1. Annual changes are from Q4 to Q4.

-.1 -6.1 -10.3 16.3

-12.8 -13.8 -11.7 -2.1 1.1

-. 6

-2.5 1.9 -2.6

-. 8 -3.4 -4.1 .7 2.6

-2.7 -3.3 .6

2.9

1993

38.9 41.4

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1992, June 30). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19920701_part3

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19920701_part3,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1992},
  month = {Jun},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19920701_part3},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}