greenbooks · October 5, 1992

Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III

FOMC

October 2, 1992

SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Employment and unemployment . . . . . . ... .. . . Purchasing managers' report. . . . . . . . . . . . . Consumer sentiment . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . Manufacturers' inventories, shipments, and orders.. . Nonresidential construction. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . .

1 2 3 4 4

Tables Initial claims with EUC adjustment. . . . . . . . . . 1 Average hourly earnings . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 2 Changes in employment . . . . . . ... . . . .. . 5 Unemployment and labor force participation rates . . . 5 University of Michigan Survey Research Center: Survey of consumer attitudes . . . . . ... .. . .. 9 Changes in manufacturing and trade inventories . . .. 10 Inventories relative to sales. . . . . . . . . . .. . 10 Business capital spending indicators . . . . ... ... .12 Charts

Labor market indicators. . . . ..... . Alternative labor market indicators. . . Purchasing managers. . . . . . . . . . . Ratio of inventories to sales. . . .. . Recent data on orders and shipments. . . Nonresidential construction and selected

. . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . ... .. . . . . . ... indicators. .

6 7 8 11 13 14

THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Tables

Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit. . Selected financial market quotations .

... .

. . . . . . ... . . . . . ....

16 17

SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Employment and Unemployment The September labor market surveys point to continued weakness in labor market conditions last month.

Private payroll employment

rose just 31,000, after a decline in August that was larger than originally reported.

The average workweek and the aggregate number

of hours worked both reversed their sharp reported August increases. The civilian unemployment rate did edge down to 7.5 percent in September.

However, initial claims for unemployment insurance were

trending up as of the week following the survey reference week. INITIAL CLAIMS WITH EUC ADJUSTMENT (In thousands; seasonally adjusted by BLS)

Initial claims All regular programs EUC effect Adjusted claims 1.

Aug. 15

Aug. 22

391 12 403

394 15 409

1992 Aug. Sep. 5 29 402 25 427

408 23 431

Sep. 12

Sep. 19

422 30 452

438 33 471

Initial claims (all regular programs) plus the EUC effect. As expected, the overall payroll figures for September were

depressed by the end of many of the federally funded summer jobs for youth. The BLS estimates that about 140,000 such jobs were created in July and August (mostly in local governments) and that about 97,000 of these jobs ended in September.

The only notable increase

in private payrolls in September came from the services industry, where employment was up 72,000 after a small decline in August. Health services posted a modest gain, but hiring in business services was down slightly.

The trade and finance industries

reported little change in employment.

In contrast, manufacturing

-2and construction both posted modest declines in jobs in September after much larger losses in the preceding month. In the household survey, employment edged down 36,000 last month.

The decline was concentrated among adult women; teenage

employment was up despite the loss of temporary summer jobs. Unemployment fell as well, and the civilian labor force declined 164,000 in September.

After rising about 300,000 per month between

November and June, the labor force has declined about 100,000 per month since then.

Other indicators from the household survey

changed little in September.

Indeed, the number of persons working

part time for economic reasons and the share of the unemployed who are job losers both have shown no clear trend in recent months. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers dropped back 0.2 percent in September after jumping 0.7 percent in August.

Over the 12 months ended in September, average hourly

earnings for the private production workers increased only 2.2 percent, down about 3/4 percentage point from the preceding twelve-month period. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (Percent change; based on seasonally adjusted data) 12 months ending in Sep. 1992 1991 1990

July

1992 Aug.

Sep.

--Monthly rate--

Total private nonfarm Manufacturing Services Finance, insurance, real estate

3.8 3.5 4.9

3.0 3.1 3.8

2.2 2.7 2.7

.0 .1 .0

.7 .6 .8

-.2 .3 .3

5.2

4.2

3.2

1.8

-.9

Purchasing Managers' Report The Purchasing Managers' Report suggests that the pace of industrial activity weakened a bit in September.

The Purchasing

Managers' Index fell to 49.0 last month--the lowest reading since

-3January.

In September, the number of companies reporting declines

in new orders about matched those reporting increases; the net difference of -0.8 percentage point was down sharply from the 19 percentage points that had prevailed in earlier months.

contrast to total new orders, net new export orders picked up in September.

Production gains reportedly continued in September, but

at a slower pace than in August.

More firms reduced inventories and

employment in September than increased them. The speed of supplier deliveries slowed for the fourth consecutive month, and average lead times for ordering maintenance and repair supplies, production materials, and capital goods all edged up.

However, the number of firms reporting higher prices for

materials dropped in September, retracing much of the firming that had been evident earlier in the year. Consumer Sentiment Based on a complete tally of responses for September, the University of Michigan's composite index of consumer sentiment edged down 0.5 index points, to a level of 75.6, almost 5 index points below its recent peak in June.

The current conditions component of

the index rose 2 index points, but the expected conditions component, which is weighted more heavily in the composite index, dropped 2 points.

The deterioration in expected conditions owed

chiefly to greater pessimism about business conditions over the next five years.

The brighter assessment of current conditions resulted

from a substantial improvement in the assessment of personal financial conditions.

The other component of the current conditions

index, consumers' appraisal of buying conditions for large household durable goods, declined. Among survey items not included in the composite index, expectations about unemployment worsened a bit, inflation

-4expectations were essentially unchanged, and slightly more consumers believed that-it is a good time to buy a house. Manufacturers' Inventories. Shipments, and Orders Manufacturers' inventories rose sharply in August as shipments of manufactured goods slackened.

In current-cost terms, factory

stocks increased at an annual rate of $25.3 billion while factory shipments slumped 2.4 percent.

As a result, the inventory-to-

shipments ratio for all manufacturing shot up to 1.60 months in August--about midway in the range of the past year. Among the major industries, only aircraft reported a significant inventory drawdown in August.

Stocks held by producers

of primary metals, industrial machinery, electrical and electronic equipment, and chemicals all posted sizable increases, while their shipments fell.

By stage of fabrication, about 70 percent of the

August accumulation was in stocks of finished goods. Revised data now indicate that new orders for all manufactured goods fell 1.9 percent in August, following a 0.9 percent drop in July.

For nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, more

complete sample counts now show that orders fell 3.1 percent in August, a bit more than the 2.9 percent decline indicated in the advance report. Nonresidential Construction The nominal value of private nonresidential construction put in place plunged 5.8 percent in August.

The large decline was

concentrated in the office, other commercial, and industrial sectors, all of which fell more than 10 percent.

Nothing else we

have seen points to such an abrupt deterioration in nonresidential construction, and we would be inclined to discount the steep drop in this preliminary report.

Nonetheless, these data will be the latest

-5available to BEA when it compiles the advance estimate of thirdquarter activity. Expenditures on public construction projects were little changed in August from an upward-revised estimate for July. Relative to a year earlier, the average level of this spending in July and August was up 7.4 percent, with most of the gain coming from projects of state and local governments.

-6CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT 1 (Thousands of employees; based on seasonally adjusted data) 1992

1990

1991

1992

July

Aug.

Sept

------------ Average monthly changes ------------Nonfarm payroll employment2

-5

-79

-5

171

-128

-57

-34 -47 -36 -4 -11

-91 -36 -33 -8 -3

-4 -17 -16 -9 -1

64 -14 -15 -12 1

-23 -37 -29 -12 -9

103 6 -24 -16 30

-203 -92 -44 -12 -48

31 -2E -1E -E -E

-23 -8

-26 -35

4 -7

-1 21

-12 -17

-16 28

2 -79

-22 C

-1 44 31 0 29

-3 30 29 3 12

2 28 16 11 19

-1 70 20 39 10

-1 61 19 5 18

-12 117 32 8 68

3 -7 7 14 75

71 1E -f -8E

Private nonfarm production workers Manufacturing production workers

-40 -39

-76 -23

18 1

89 -9

-38 -30

59 14

-170 -81

-21

Total employment4 Nonagricultural

-32 -39

-62 -54

75 56

42 46

198 246

-35 -49

-3( -6(

Private Manufacturing Durable Defense-related Nondurable Construction Retail trade

Finance, insurance, real estate Services Health services Business services Total government

207 203

Memo: Aggregate hours of private production workers

(percent change)

Average workweek (hours)

34.5

-. 1

34.4

34.3

34.6

-. 1

34.3

34.5

-1.

34.:

1. Average change from final month of preceding period to final month of period indicated. 2. Survey of establishments. 3. Industries which are dependent on defense expenditures for at least 50 percent of their output. 4. Survey of households.

UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES (Percent: seasonally adjusted)

Civilian unemployment rate (16 years and older) Teenagers 20-24 years old Men, 25 years and older Women. 25 years and older Labor force participation rate

1992 Q2

1992 Aug.

Sept.

July

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.6

7.5

19.6 11.1 6.3 5.6

21.0 11.3 6.5 5.8

20.4 11.6 6.6 5.8

21.0 11.7 6.5 5.9

19.8 11.5 6.7 5.9

20.4 11.6 6.6 5.7

66.2

66.5

66.4

66.6

66.4

66.3

1990

1991

5.5

6.7

7.2

15.5 8.8 4.4 4.3

18.7 10.8 5.7 5.1

66.4

66.0

-7-

LABOR MARKET INDICATORS Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers

Hours -7

35.2

34.8

34.4

\tv/

ii ill i I

Sept

I ill

i i

Aggregate hours of production or nonsupervisory workers

1982-100 130

125

120

115

110

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Thousands 550

All regular programs

- - -Including EUC Adjustment

500 450 400 350 300

1987

1988

250 1989

1990

-8-

ALTERNATIVE LABOR MARKET INDICATORS Help-Wanted Advertising

1967-100

Aug

1986

1985

1988

1987

I 1989

I 1990

iI ill IIiii _._ Iii ..........

1991

1992

Conference Board: Percent Reporting Jobs Plentiful

Percent

-40 30

Sept -

I 1985

1986

I 1987

1988

198

litnilisitilhi 1992L·····LI 1992

1989

Manpower Inc. Employment Outlook Index

1985

1986

1987

Percentage points

1988

1989

1. Percent of respondents planning to increase employment minus the percent planning to decrease employment; seasonally adjusted.

1990

1991

1992

-910/1/92

Purchasing Managers* (Seasonally adjusted) Percent

Percent

1986

1988

1990

1992

1986

1988

1990

Percent

1986

1988

1990

1992

Percent reporting increases are netted with those reporting decreases. " Positive entries represent slower deliveries.

1992

Percent

1986

1988

1990

1992

October 2, 1992 UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER: SURVEY OF CONSUMER ATTITUDES (Not seasonally adjusted)

1992 Jan

1992 Feb

1992 Mar

1992 Apr

1992 May

1992 Jun

1992 Jul

1992 Aug

1992 Sep (f)

Composite of current and expected conditions

67.5

68.8

76.0

77.2

79.2

80.4

76.6

76.1

75.6

Current conditions Expected conditions

80.5 59.1

79.7 61.8

84.9 70.3

87.7 70.5

91.5 71.2

95.4 70.7

90.6 67.6

86.2 69.5

88.3 67.4

90 119

91 123

93 113

97 129

97 122

100 125

96 125

91 121

102 123

53 63

60 63

90 77

87 66

92 70

88 70

78 66

81 76

78 68

123 117 155

126 114 163

125 126 153

131 130 162

135 139 159

144 147 163

128 138 153

129 132 159

130 126 162

37 46

39 47

39 53

31 54

45 59

38 67

39 58

Average expected increase in prices during the next 12 months

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.4

4.2

3.9

4.0

4.1

Average expected increase in prices (per year) over the next 5 to 10 years

5.4

4.5

4.6

4.9

5.5

4.7

5.0

Indexes of consumer sentiment (Feb. 1966=100)

Personal financial situation Now compared with 12 months ago* Expected in 12 months* Expected business conditions Next 12 months* Next 5 years* Appraisal of buying conditions Cars Large household appliances* Houses Willingness to use credit Willingness to use savings

* --

Indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment.

(p) -- Preliminary (f) -- Final

Note: Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent reporting 'good times' (or 'better') minus the percent reporting 'bad times' (or 'worse'), plus 100. Asterisk (*) indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment.

-11CHANGES IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES (Billions of dollars at annual rates: based on seasonally adjusted data)

1992

1991

1992

23.1 22.1 -14.0 -7.0 19.9 17.3 1.1 16.2

-7.9 -13.7 -11.2 -7.1 -1.2 4.5 5.8 -1.3

22.7 16.1 -1.5 6.3 6.1 18.1 6.6 11.5

46.1 44.4 -5.2 2.5 33.7 17.6 1.6 15.9

18.5 23.6 7.6 15.7 -6.1 17.0 -5.1 22.1

n.a. n.a. 25.3 27.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

16.2 17.0 -11.3 15.2 12.3 -. 9 13.1

-13.2 -18.0 -8.7 -4.9 .5 4.8 -4.4

7.4 1.9 -6.5 2.1 11.8 5.5 6.3

34.1 29.5 -6.5 25.2 15.4 4.6 10.7

7.9 15.3 5.3 -7.5 10.1 -7.3 17.5

n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

June

July

Aug.

Current-cost basis Total Excluding auto dealers Manufacturing Excluding aircraft Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto dealers Constant-dollar basis Total Excluding auto dealers Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto dealers

INVENTORIES RELATIVE TO SALES 1 (Months supply; based on seasonally adjusted data)

1991 Q4

1992 Q1

1992 Q2

June

July

Aug.

Current-cost basis Total Excluding auto dealers Manufacturing Excluding aircraft Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto dealers

1.54 1.52 1.62 1.45 1.37 1.58 1.87 1.50

1.52 1.50 1.62 1.45 1.36 1.54 1.85 1.46

1.51 1.49 1.57 1.41 1.36 1.57 1.90 1.48

1.50 1.47 1.55 1.39 1.35 1.57 1.90 1.48

1.49 1.47 1.55 1.39 1.33 1.56 1.88 1.47

1. Ratio of end of period inventories to average monthly sales for the period.

n.a. n.a. 1.60 1.43 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

-12-

RATIO OF INVENTORIES TO SALES (Current-cost data) Ratio 2.1 Manufacturing

Excluding aircraft

- 1.7

Total

,,,

•",-

1.9

'-1\ 1,3

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

Ratio - 1.5 Wholesale

1.4

1.3

1.2

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

I1.1

1990

1992

Ratio 2.7 -

Ratio 1.7

Retail 1* 2.5 -

, '

GA.F. '-

,f is

2.3

2.1

1,6

july

1.5

1980

1982

auto

.Excluding

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1.4

-13BUSINESS CAPITAL SPENDING INDICATORS (Percent change from preceding comparable period; based on seasonally adjusted data)

1991 Q4

1992 Q1

1992 Q2

June

July

Aug.

-3.0 .2 .4 -1

-2.2 -2.5 -3.2 -2.3

Producers' durable equipment Shipments of nondefense capital goods Excluding aircraft and parts Office and computing All other categories

.9 1.2 6.8 -. 3

.5 .2 5.0 -1.2

1.4 2.6 3.8 2.3

7.3 4.9 4.5 5.0

-23.2

65.0

-12.7

9.8

-16.3

n.a.

Sales of heavy weight trucks

-1.4

7.1

5.9

1.2

Orders of nondefense capital goods Excluding aircraft and parts Office and computing All other categories

-4.0 -1.3 .4 -1.8

2.5 4.0 9.2 2.6

-. 4 .5 4.4 -. 6

1.6 4.9 2.4 5.6

-5.4 -1.3 -2.5 -. 9

-3.9 -3.1 3.9 -5.1

-4.2 -10.8 -10.4 2.7 .8 -4.2

.6 -4.9 1.5 2.4 5.2 -2.7

.6 -6.7 3.8 -6.0 2.5 6.2

2.8 4.3 13.0 -3.4 .3 1.4

-2.1 -9.7 -7.0 .9 1.4 .6

-5.8 -10.5 -11.9 -13.7 1.8 -1.8

-9.2

-4.7

-1.4

-7.3

6.5

-.2

-18.0

-4.0

-8.9

n.a.

-5.2

3.0

16.1

n.a.

Shipments of complete aircraft 1

Nonresidential structures Construction put-in-place Office Other commercial Industrial Public utilities All other Rotary drilling rigs in use Footage drilled 2 Memo: Business fixed investment 3

1. From the Current Industrial Report "Civil Aircraft and Aircraft Engines." Monthly data are seasonally adjusted using FRB seasonal factors constrained to BEA quarterly seasonal factors. Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted using BEA seasonal factors. 2. From Department of Energy. Not seasonally adjusted. 3. Based on constant-dollar data; percent change, annual rate. n.a. Not available.

-14-

RECENT DATA ON ORDERS AND SHIPMENTS Office and Computing Equipment

Billions of dollars

Orders - - - Shipments

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Other Equipment (excluding aircraft and computers)

1992

Billions of dollars

SOrders - - - - Shipments

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

-15-

NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION AND SELECTED INDICATORS* (Index, Dec. 1982 = 100, ratio scale) Total Building

Construction (C)

------

Permits (P), Contracts (CN), or New commitments (NC)

Office

Other Commercial

(C)

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

'IIi I"

1 1984

1 1986

1 1988

1 1990

1 1992

1984

1986

1988

1992

Institutional

Industrial

I 1984

1990

1986

1988

1990

1992

1984

I 1986

(C)

I 1988

I i

II 1990

1992

*Six-month moving average for all series shown. For contracts, total only Includes private, while Indivkdual sectors include private and public. New commitments are the sum of pemits and contracts.

-16MONETARY AGGREGATES (based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted)

Growth 1991 1

1992 92

1992 Q3pe

1992 Jul

1992 Aug

1992 Q4 91Sep pe Sep 92pe

------------ Percent change at annual rates--------------------1. 2. 3.

8.0 2.8 1.2

Ml M2 M3

9.8 0.3 -1.3

10½ 0 -¼

11.3 -0.9 -1.1

16.0 3.1 2.7

19 3

13; 1i

k Levels

----------

Percent change at annual

rates------------

bil.

Aug 92 Selected components 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

MI-A Currency Demand deposits Other checkable deposits M2 minus M1

9. 10.

Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money

11. 12. 13.

Commercial banks Savings deposits (including Small time deposits

14.

Thrift institutions

15.

Savings deposits

16.

Small time deposits

market mutual fund shares MMDAs)

(including MDlOAs)

17. M3 minus MZ

18. 19. 20.

Large time deposits At commercial banks, net At thrift institutions

21.

Institution-only money market

22.

mutual fund shares Term RPs, NSA

23.

Term Eurodollars, NSA

5.6

9.1

8.4 3.4

14.7

16.9

610.9

5.8 12.5

114 114

12.2 17.7

14.2 19.4

17 26

282.3 320.7

12.4

11.0

6.1

14.1

362.7

1.1

-3.1

-31

-5.6

-1.9

-3

2496.0

-6.9

-27.1

16h

8.3

57.6

-35

76.4

3.9 7.1 13.3 1.1 -6.9 9.3 -16.8

-4.8 0.5 12.0 -13.2 -6.7 18.9 -29.4

-8

-194

-11.5 -2.1 9.3 -17.0 -7.3 5.2 -19.6

-5.8 -0.6 13.6 -19.0 -5.9 8.9 -21.7

-5.7

-9.1

-2½

-1.9

-11.7 -5.1 -31.7

-18.9 -14.8 -37.0

-17% -17h

-20.6 -23.6

-17¼

33.4 -22.0 -11.0

20.1 6.1 -18.4

41J -3% -20z

-14 10 -16½ -5% 8

0.9

349.1 1259.5 724.4 535.2 811.9 421.1 390.8

-8

702.7

-5.2

-16.1 -15.4 -22.4

-16 -18 -5

383.3 315.0 68.2

48.1 -23.0 -11.3

54.9 5.0 -22.8

10 17 -63

217.2 71.9 51.6

----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars--MEMORANDA: 24. Managed liabilities at commercial banks (25+26) 25. Large time deposits, gross 26. Nondeposit funds 27. Net due to related foreign institutions 6 Other 28. 29. U.S. government deposits at commercial 7 banks

-0.6 -0.2 -0.5

-2.8 -4.8 2.1

0.4 -0.9 0.2

-3½ 0

-3.7 -6.4 2.7

-4.1 -1.5 -2.6

-2 -3 0

681.1 384.5 296.6

5.0 -3.0

-1 1

2.1 0.6

-4.0 1.4

-1 1

59.8 236.8

1.3

-3.9

10.7

-7

-3%

32.6

Amounts shown are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Nontransactions M2 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. The non-MZ component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift institutions. Dollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities for borrowed money (including borrowing from the sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor items). Data are partially estimated. 7. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks. pe - preliminary estimate

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

-17-

COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT 1

(Percentage change at annual rate, based on seasonally adjusted data) 1990 Category

Level,

Dec. to

1992

bil.$

1991 Dec.

Q3p

Jul.

Aug.

Sep. p

1992 Sep. p

Commercial bank credit 1. Total loans and securities at banks 2.

Securities

U.S. government

Other

Loans

3.9

2.1

3.6

-0.0

5.4

17.6

14.7

15.1

14.5

22.9

7.3

809.7

23.8

19.7

17.2

14.4

28.7

8.0

634.1

1.4

-2.3

7.7

15.3

2.8

4.8

175.6

-0.2

-2.4

-0.7

-5.5

-1.3

4.9

2,085.9

5.5 2,895.5

Business

-2.9

-7.3

-1.4

-5.0

-4.0

4.8

596.3

Real estate

2.9

0.5

0.0

-2.5

-1.5

4.0

881.4

Consumer

-3.9

-2.2

-3.1

-1.0

-5.0

-3.4

356.7

Security

21.3

25.0

1.9

-65.0

37.3

36.2

64.9

Other

-2.7

-9.3

2.8

-8.4

2.6

14.3

186.6

10.

Short- and intermediate-term business credit 11. Business loans net of bankers acceptances

-2.5

-7.0

-1.7

-6.7

-3.7

5.3

589.7

12. Loans at foreign branches 2

-1.6

26.3

1.6

44.4

-42.9

4.9

24.4

13. Sum of lines 11 and 12

-2.5

-5.8

-1.6

-4.7

-5.1

4.9

614.0

-10.4

-3.9

10.8

4.3

15.3

12.6

144.2

-4.0

-5.4

0.7

-3.0

-1.3

6.5

758.3

-16.2

-27.3

n.a.

-4.9

-29.4

n.a.

23.9

17. Finance company loans to business4

1.4

-1.6

n.a.

9.2

n.a.

301.06

18. Total (sum of lines 15,16, and 17)

-2.9

-4.9

n.a.

0.3

n.a.

14. Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms 15. Sum of lines 13 and 14 16. Bankers acceptances, U.S. traderelated3 ,4

1,080.4

1. Average of Wednesdays. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications. 2. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. 4. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 5. August 1992. 6. July 1992. p-Preliminary. n.a.--Not available.

-18(percent) 1992

1992

Change from:

FOMC

Aug 18

FOMC

Sept 4

Oct 1

Sept 4 Aug 16

Short-term rates Federal funds 2

3.27

3.19

3.24

0.05

-0.03

Treasury bills 3 3-month 6-month 1-year

3.07 3.13 3.22

2.92 2.96 3 .06

2.61 2.75 2.85

-0.31 -0.21 -0.21

-0.46 -0.38 -0.37

Commercial paper 1-month 3-month

3.38 3.37

3.22 3.22

3.24 3.23

0.02 0.01

-0.14 -0.14

Large negotiable CDs3 1-month 3-month 6-month

3.26 3.27 3.33

3.06 3.06 3.11

3.06 3.09 3.09

0.00 0.03 0.02

-0.20 -0.18 -0.24

Eurodollar deposits 4 1-month 3-month

3.25 3.31

3.31 3.31

3.06 3.13

-0.25 -0.18

-0.19 -0.18

Bank prime rate

6.00

0.00

4.56 6.48 7.33

4.38 6.40 7.29

4.18 7.30

-0.20 -0.17 0.01

-0.38

6.23

Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer)

6.20

6.31

6.45

0.14

0.25

Corporate--A utility recently offered

8.10

8.06

8.17

0.11

0.07

Home mortgage rates 6 FHLMC 30-yr. FRM FHLMC 1-yr. ARM

7.96 5.30

7.84 5.15

8.02 5.02

0.18 -0.13

0.06 -0.28

Intermediate- and long-term rates U.S. Treasury 3-year 10-year 30-year

(constant maturity)

1992

1989 Record highs

Date

Lows Jan 3

FOMC Aug 18

Oct 1

-0.25 -0.03

Percent change from: Record highs

1989 lows

FOMC Aug 18

51.74 48.53 22.79 52.77 47.52

-2.26 -1.37 -3.10 1.31 -1.07

Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial 3413.21 233.73 NYSE Composite 418.99 AMEX Composite 644.92 NASDAQ (OTC) 4121.28 Wilshire

6/1/92 9/14/92 2/12/92 2/12/92 1/15/92

2144.64 3329.48 3254.37 154.00 231.90 228.73 305.24 386.81 374.81 378.56 570.87 578.33 2718.59 4053.95 4010.55

-4.65 -2.14 -10.54 -10.33 -2.69

............................................................................................-

1/ One-day quotes except as noted. 2/ Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for maintenance period ending September 30, 1992.

3/ Secondary market. 4/ Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5/ Based on one-day Thursday quotes and futures market index changes 6/ Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1992, October 5). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19921006_part1

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19921006_part1,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1992},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19921006_part1},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}