greenbooks · September 20, 1993

Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note

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CONFIDENTIAL (FR) FOMC CLASS III

September 17,

SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

1993

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY

Consumer sentiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Erratum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

University of Michigan Survey Research Center: Survey of consumer attitudes. . . . . . . . . . . . THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Tables

Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit. . . . . . . . . . Selected financial market quotations . . . . . . . . . THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S. merchandise trade through July. . . . . . . . . . Developments in foreign industrial countries . . . . . Tables Merchandise trade:

Census-based data.

U.S. merchandise trade: Levels . . . . . . Changes from previous Percent change . . .

Summary of . . . . . . period . . . . . . . .

months and quarters: . . . . . .. ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES

THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Consumer Sentiment The Michigan index of consumer sentiment was little changed in the first part of September from the levels prevailing in July and August

The early September index value of 77,4 was approximately

14 points below its recent peak in December 1992, reflecting the deterioration in sentiment that occurred in the first half of the year

Consumers' assessments of current conditions improved

modestly in September while consumers' expectations of future conditions edged lower Among the questions not included in the composite index, consumers' appraisals of buying conditions for cars and houses reversed the declines recorded in August relatively favorable July levels.

moving back up to their

In contrast

respondents' average

expectation of the change in unemployment edged up further to its most pessimistic level since July 1992 Average expected inflation over the next twelve months fell by 0.6 percentage point in early September to 4.3 percent, while the median inflation expectation fell 0.2 percentage point to 3.1 percent

The average expectation of inflation over the next

five to ten years also fell somewhat to 4.4 percent--the lowest reading in the eleven-year history of this series.

Although the

median expectation of inflation over the next five to ten years rose in September from 3.2 percent to 3.5 percent

this series has also

displayed a downward trend in the past several years Erratum

On page two of the Greensheets, page I-16, the percent change in the GDP fixed-weight price index for 1992 was incorrectly reported as 3.4 percent

The correct figure is 3.3 percent

September 17, 1993 UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER: SURVEY OF CONSUMER ATTITUDES (Not seasonally adjusted) 1993 Jan

1993 Feb

1993 Mar

1993 Apr

1993 May

1993 Jun

1993 Jul

1993 Aug

1993 Sep (p)

Composite of current and expected conditions

89.3

86.6

85.9

85.6

80.3

81.5

77.0

77.3

77.4

Current conditions Expected conditions

98.6 83.4

96.0 80.6

101.6 75.8

99.9 76.4

98.7 68.5

98.7 70.4

96.2 64.7

95.1 65.8

97.9 64.3

110 127

100 125

111 119

104 120

103 115

108 117

102 112

96 114

105 113

111 97

103 95

96 88

95 91

83 76

89 75

80 66

76 73

72 71

134 145 166

132 148 158

136 152 173

137 155 167

140 152 163

140 147 166

141 147 171

138 150 166

140 148 172

Willingness to use credit Willingness to use savings

37 64

40 52

46 74

43 64

41 73

35 53

42 65

42 58

50 63

Expected unemployment change - next 12 months

110

117

115

125

127

130

129

131

3.5 4.8

4.6 5.9

4.9 4.9

4.1 4.8

4.4 5.7

4.8 5.2

4.4 5.0

4.9 4.6

4.3 4.4

Indexes of consumer sentiment (Feb. 1966=100)

Personal financial situation Now compared with 12 months ago* Expected in 12 months* Expected business conditions Next 12 months* Next 5 years* Appraisal of buying conditions Cars

Large household appliances* Houses

Expected inflation - next 12 months Expected inflation - next 5 to 10 years

-- Indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. (p) -- Preliminary (f) -- Final

Note: Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent reporting 'good times' (or 'better') minus the percent reporting 'bad times' (or 'worse'), plus 100. Asterisk (*) indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. Expected change in unemployment is the fraction expecting unemployment to rise minus the fraction expecting unemployment to fall.

MONETARY AGGREGATES (Based on seasonally adjusted data except as noted)

19921

1993 Q1 2

1993 Q2 2

1993 Jun.

1993 Jul.

Aggregate or component Aggregate 1- Ml 2. M2 3. M3

1992:Q4 Level 1993 to (bil. $) Aug. Aug. 93 Aug. 93 (p) (p) (p)

Percentage change (annual rate) 14.3

6-6

10.5

7.2

13.8

1.8

-1.8

2.2

2.6

2.2

0.3

-3.7

2.5

-0.8

13.7

6.2

13.0

9.1 18.0

9.5 3.7

7. Other checkable deposits

15.4

8. M2 minus M13

-2.6

-0.3

10.5 1.8 1.6

10.2 1.2 0.0

1095.0 3526.7 4175.3

7.3

13.9

11.3

691-1

9.7 16.1

11.1 5.0

11.0 17.3

11.2 16.4

10.3 12.6

312.5 370.8

7.3

6-3

7.3

13.3

4.8

8.3

403.9

-5.3

-1.3

0.6

-2.8

-2.1

-2.5

2431.7

-7.4

-9.7

66.9

39.0

36.2

5.7

78.6

-10.1 -2.2 1.6 -7,9 -8.4 -0.2 -18.0

-0.5 -0.4 4.6 -8.0 -4.2 0.7 -10.1

-1.1 -0.3 6.4 -10.5 -3.6 2.8 -11.5

-0.7 -4.4 0.8 -12.5 -4.0 2.5 -12.0

-6.4 0.0 7.0 -11.2 -3.0 1.7 -9.2

-3.7 -1.2 4.0 -8.9 -5.1 1.2 -12.4

334.5 1252.8 774.0 478.8 766.6 431.2 335.4

-13.1

3.8

-18.9

-14.1

0.2

-6.1

648.6

-16.3 -15.4 -19.6

-17.8 -18.0 -17.5

-1.0 0.6 -7.9

-11.1 -11.5 -9.3

-15.8 -19.4 -1.9

0.7 3.1 -7.5

-8.7 -8.3 -10.5

338.4 275.1 63.3

18.2 7.8 -22.6

-14.1 9.9 0.0

0.4 38.3 19.6

-27.8 41.5 -68.9

-18.8 46.6 -90.8

-10.5 -3.7 38.2

-9.1 25.8 -4.5

193.3 96.1 45.4

Selected components 4. 5. 6.

9. 10. 11. 1213. 14. 15. '6.

MI-A Currency Demand deposits

Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, n.s.a. General-purpose and brokerdealer money market funds Commercial banks Savings deposits Small time deposits Thrift institutions Savings deposits Small time deposits

17. M3 minus M23 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23.

Large time deposits 4 At commercial banks At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual funds Term RPs, n.s.a. Term Eurodollars, n.s.a.

2.7 -5.2 -0.1 14.5 -15.8 -5.5 14.8 -21.5 -6.6

Average monthly change (billions of dollars) Memo Managed liabilities at com'l. banks (lines 25 26) Large time deposits, gross Nondeposit funds Net due to related foreign institutions Other 5 U.S. government deposits at commercial banks 6

-2.1 -4.6 2.5

3.4 -3.6 7.0

5.8 -1.0 6.9

8.5 -3.7 12.2

17.1 -8.0 25-1

2.7 -0.2

2.8 4.2

2.1 4.7

2.9 9.3

14.9 10.3

14.1 -4.0

114.9 273.4

2.4

7.0

4.0

-0.8

29.3

-0.5

727.9 339.6 388.3

1. "Percentage change' is percentage change in quarterly average from fourth quarter of preceding year to fourth quarter of specified year. 'Average monthly change' is dollar change from December to December, divided by 12. 2. "Percentage change" is percentage change in quarterly average from preceding quarter to specified quarter. *Average monthly change" is dollar change from the last month of the preceding quarter to the last month of the specified quarter, divided by 3. 3. Seasonally adjusted as a whole. 4. Net of holdings of money market mutual funds, depository institutions, U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions. 5. Borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money (including borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs, and other minor items). Data are partially estimated. 6. Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks.

COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDT 1 (Percentage change at annual rate, based on seasonally adjusted data) Dec. 1991

Type of credit

to Dec.

1993

Jun.

1993

Jul.

Level, Aug.

1993

Aug. p

1992

1993 p ($ billions)

Commercial bank credit 1.

Total loans and securities

3.6

7.2

9.1

8.8

3.4

3,047.5

at banks 2.

Securities

U.S.

Other

government

11.6

10.6

12.1

6.0

9.3

896.0

17.5

13.0

12.2

16.6

6.1

9.5

713.8

-5.3

5.3

8.6

182.2 2,151.5

-1.1

Loans

Business

Real estate

8. 9.

10.

13.0

-3.2

6.2

4.5

-. 8

5.8

-1.2

7.9

10.0

3.5

-1.4

591.1

3.7

3.0

910.2

7.4

374.1

2.1

-. 9

5.1

7.5

Consumer

-1.8

7.7

6.5

3.9

Security

18.4

-3.7

47.3

Other

1.2

-13.0

9.9

50.4

15.5

12.4 170.2 10.4

-27.8 -7.9

80.2 195.9

Short- and intermediate-term business credit

11. Business loans net of bankers

-3.3

-1.8

3.5

-2.7

-. 2

581.5

acceptances 12. Loans at foreign branches

2.0

Sum of lines 11 and 12

14.

Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms

15. Sum of lines 13 and 14

-20.5

-5.2

-26.1

-48.0

21.6

-3.1

3.0

-4.0

-1.8

603.1

9.5

-9.3

15.8

-1.6

38.4

23.5

161.1

-. 8

-4.4

3.1

2.1

4.6

3.5

764.2

-3.1

13.

-33.1

16. Bankers acceptances, U.S. trade-related3 , 4

-10.4

-14.2

-16.4

-33.2

n.a.

21.1

n.a.

302.8

1.8

17. Finance company loans to business

-16.9

-5.1

-. 4

-1.2

18. Total (sum of lines 15, and 17)

16,

-.5

-4.7

2.3

n.a.

1,085.9

1. Except as noted, levels are averages of Wednesday data and percentage changes are based on averages of Wednesday data; data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassification; changes are measured frcm preceding period to period indicated. 2. Loans to U.S. firms made by foreign branches of daoestically chartered banks. 3. Acceptances that finance U.S. iuports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods.

4. Changes are based on averages of month-end data. 5. July 1993. p Preliminary. n.a. Not available.

SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (Percent except as noted) a1992

y1993

Change to Sep 16.

FOMC. Aug 17 --

Sep 16

3.19

3.02

3.01

0.18

0.01

Treasury bills 3-month 6-month 1-year

2.92 2.96 3.06

3.01 3.12 3.28

2.95 3.07 3.25

0.03 0.11 0.19

-0.06 -0.05 -0.03

Commercial paper 1-month 3-month

3.22 3.22

3.16 3.18

3.14 3.15

0.08 -0.07

-0.02 -0.03

3.06 3 .06 3.11

3 .09

3.13 3.31

3.10 3.12 3.27

0.04 0.06 0.16

0.01 -0.01 .0.04

3.31 3.31

3.06 3.51

3.06 3.06

0.25 0.25

0.00 -0.07

6.00

5.00

0.00

4.38 6.40 7.29

4.39 5.70 6.31

4.19 5.37 6.01

-0.19 !.03 1.28

-0.20 -0.33 -0.30

6.31

5.68

5.49

-0.82

0.19

8.06

'.16

6.98

-1.08

-0.18

7.84 5.15

.17 4.51

6 82 4.33

1.02 0.82

-0.35 '0.18

Instrument Sept. 4 (----I-----|----_

SHORT-TERM RATES 2 Federal funds

Large negotiable CDs 1-month 3-month 6-month 4 Eurodollar deposits S-,onth S-month

Bank orime rate

From Sept. 4

1993

From FOMC. Aug 17 ___

INTERMEDIATE- AND LONG-TERM RATES U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 3-year 10-year 30-year 5 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) Corporate--A utility. recently offered 6 Home mortgages fixed rate FMLMC 30-yr FHLMC '-yr adjustable rate

1993

1989

r Record high

Percentage change to Sep 16 record high

From 1989 low

-0.58 -0.76 -1.71 -1.32 0.78

69.30 65.55 48.63 95.42 68.14

____From Stock exchange index

Level Dow-Jones Industrial NYSE Composite AMEX Composite NASDAQ (OTC) Wilshire

3652.09 256.88 461.57 749.71 4606.97 I

SLow. Date

Jan.

FOMC. Aug 17

Sep 16

8/25/93 2144.64 3586.98 3630.85 254.94 154.00 251.27 8/31/93 453.68 9/3/93 305.24 442.66 9/3/93 378.56 731.01 739.80 9/1/93 2718.59 4509.28 4570.92 --

One-day quotes except as noted. 2. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for maintenance period ending September 15. 1993. 3. Secondary market

4. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5. Based on one-day Thursday quotes and futures market index changes. 6. Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown.

From FOMC, Aug 17 1.22 1.46 2.49 1.20 .37

-6THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S.

Merchandise Trade through July In July, the merchandise trade deficit was

(seasonally adjusted, Census-basis) but

$10.3

billion

smaller than recorded in June

slightly larger than the average of the second quarter Imports in July were 4-1/2 percent less than in June,

and were

about 2 percent less than the average for the second quarter decline in imports from June to July was products, petroleum, and consumer goods,

primarily in automotive Automotive imports dropped

off in July from levels recorded on average during the quarters of the year both from Canada and from other countries part slowing sales

(especially passenger cars)

in the United States,

quantity;

the

first two

(primarily trucks and parts) reflecting in

The 8 percent drop in the

value of oil imports in July was split between price per barrel) and

The

(by about

$1.00

quantity of imports was slightly less

than the average for the second quarter

The decrease in imported

consumer goods in July partly reversed the run-up recorded in June; the

level of consumer goods imports in July was about the same as

the second quarter on average was

Offsetting part of these declines

an increase in computer imports;

the level in July was 8 percent

above the average for the second quarter Exports in July were 1 1/2 percent less than in June and were about 3 percent less than the average for the second quarter

sharp drop in the value of exported aircraft accounted for most of the decrease; oscillations. in imports;

deliveries of aircraft

are subject to

sharp

Automotive exports also declined, paralleling changes

most of exports of computers and parts moved up in July

to a level that was 6 percent above the average for the second quarter;

exports of semiconductors also rose in July

-7Developments in Foreign Industrial Countries In Japan, the government announced preliminary details of its long-awaited economic emergency package the package has regulations

three components:

on Thursday, September 16,

First, many government

restricting competition and impeding efficiency will be

eased or eliminated, most of them by March 1994, current fiscal year benefits

Second, steps will

the end of the

be taken to pass the

of the yen's appreciation on to consumers, including

reductions in utility rates,

increased import promotion activities,

and urging private companies

to lower retail import prices.

the GDP)

package provides for

about ¥6 trillion

(about 1.3 percent of

in increased public works spending, land acquisitions,

government lending programs.

and

As with the earlier August 1992 Y10.7

trillion package and the April 1993

¥13.2 trillion package, much of The

the new package may not boost aggregate spending directly, total effect on Japan's output

Third,

spread over the coming year

expected to be roughly 1/2 percent of GDP. In France, GDP was flat in the second quarter after declining Consumption rose

2.8 percent

(s.a.a.r ) in the first quarter

1.6 percent

(s.a.a.r ) after falling 2.8 percent in the first

quarter

and export growth was strong.

made by investment which fell 4.8

Negative contributions were

percent (s.a.a.r )

its eighth

consecutive decline, and by a sharp fall in inventories. French statistics institute, cautioned that these data are

INSEE, the less

reliable than in the past because the release of trade data has been delayed by the shift to a new data collection system (trade data are now obtained from VAT forms instead of customs officials) second-quarter GDP

The

release is based on an estimate of the June trade

balance and could be revised substantially when these data become available.

Table 1

September 16, 1993

Merchandise Trade: Census-Based Data (in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted*)

Exports Total

Ag.

393.6 421.7 448.2

1990 1991 1992

Imports NonAg.

40.2 40.1 44.0

353.4 381.6

Total

Oil

NonOil

Balance

404.1

495.3 488.5 532.7

62.1 51.8 51.6

433.2 436.7 481.0

-101.7 -66.7 -84.5

-59.9 -86.1 -98.0 -88.1

Quarters at annual rates: 1992 Qtr 1 2 3 4

441.3 441.6 445.8 463.4

43.4 42.7 44.7 45.6

397.9 398.9 401.2 417.9

501.2 527.7 543.8 551.6

41.8 52.3 57.1 54.8

459.4 475.4 486.8 496.8

1993 Qtr 1 2

453.3 460.2

43.4 43.1

409.9 417.1

557.4 582.7

51.1 57.3

506.3 525.3

-104.1 -122.5

1991 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

34.3 33.6 34.4 35.3 35.1 34.9 34.9 34.9 35.2 36.7 37.1 35.6

3.1 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6

31.2 30.3 31.0 32.1 31.8 31.9 31.5 31.5 32.0 33.2 33.5 32.0

41.3 39.4 38.9 39.8 40.3 39.8 40.4 40.9 41.5 42.5 41.7 41.8

5.3 4.1 3.7 4.1 4.7 4.3 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.0

36.0 35.3 35.2 35.6 35.6 35.6 36.3 36.3 36.9 38.3 37.5 37.8

-7.0 -5.8 -4.5 -4.5 -5.1 -4.9 -5.5 -6.0 -6.3 -5.8 -4.6 -6.2

1992 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

35.6 37.6 37.2 36.4 36.0 38.0 37.4 36.4 37.7 38.9 37.8 39.2

3.6 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.7

32.0 33.8 33.6 32.6 32.6 34.6 33.7 32.8 33.8 34.9 34.1 35.5

41.6 41.0 42.7 43.4 43.6 44.9 44.9 45.1 46.0 46.1 45.6 46.1

3.6 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.1

37.9 37.6 39.3 39.4 39.4 40.1 40.1 40.4 41.2 41.1 41.1 42.0

-6.0 -3.4 -5.5 -7.0 -7.7 -6.8 -7.5 -8.7 -8.3 -7.2 -7.8 -7.0

1993 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

37.5 36.9 38.9 38.5 38.9 37.6 37.1

3.5 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.6

34.0 33.3 35.3 34.7 35.3 34.2 33.5

45.2 44.8 49.3 48.7 47.3 49.7 47.4

4.2 4.1 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.8 4.3

40.9 40.8 44.9 43.7 42.7 44.9 43.1

-7.7 -7.9 -10.5 -10.2 -8.4 -12.1 -10.3

Monthly Rates:

------------------------ '-------------- - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - * All data are on a revised end-use basis. Source:

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Customs Valuation.

September 16,

1993 TABLE 2 U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- LEVELS Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted (except as noted), Census-basis Data

1993 Mar

1993 Apr

- - - - - - -. - . - - - - -

TRADE BALANCE (Census-basis) EXPORTS, Total (FAS Value) Agricultural Nonagricultural Ind Supplies (Nonag)** Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds Automotive Products Consumer Goods Other Nonagric Exports . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . ..

1993 Jun

.- .-- - - -

.--

.-- - -

1992 Qtr-2

1993 Jul .- .

1992 Qtr-3

. .. . . .. . . . . .

1992 Qtr-4 . . .

. . .

1993 Qtr-1 . . . . . . .

1993 Qtr-2 . . . . . .

-10453

-10182

-8376

-12058

-10340

-21527

-24497

-22036

-26029

-30616

38894 3644 35251

38479 3745 34734

38930 3587 35343

37639 3443 34197

37083 3553 33530

110396 10664 99731

111462 11174 100288

115859 11392 104467

113327 10846 102481

115048 10775 104273

8676 939 2545 616 4576

8504 1000 2439 691 4375

9107 1174 2614 859 4459

8240 977 2527 335 4401

8688 997 2652 618 4420

25128 3456 7871 806 12996

25458 3390 7672 816 13581

25878 3383 7563 1584 13348

25631 3177 7605 1592 13257

25851 3151 7581 1884 13234

15579 3088 2412 1500 8579

15226 3061 2315 1568 8282

15278 2756 2429 1511 8583

15255 3289 2267 1432 8267

14305 1881 2470 1662 8291

43643 9426 7153 3746 23317

43294 8346 7190 4102 23656

45488 9266 7489 4358 24375

44296 8272 7204 4493 24327

45759 9105 7010 4511 25133

4307 4351 2337

4424 4242 2338

4298 4501 2158

4115 4291 2296

3789 4450 2299

11602 12241 7118

11946 12732 6858

12725 13310 7066

12808 12850 6896

12837 13035 6791

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

49347 4454 44893

48660 4931 43729

47306 4567 42739

49698 4829 44869

47424 4280 43143

131923 13073 118850

135960 14271 121689

137895 13690 124205

139356 12772 126584

145664 14327 131337

Foods, Feeds, Beverages

2389

2240

2303

2341

2307

7189

7024

6892

6851

6884

Ind Supplies (ex Oil) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies

8188 1568 751 142 5727

7712 1541 610 154 5406

7698 1479 688 377 5154

7924 1531 834 213 5347

7726 1549 785 163 5230

21594 4118 2155 520 14800

21719 4146 2127 366 15080

22116 4324 2178 472 15142

22495 4434 1971 331 15759

23334 4552 2132 743 15906

12379 892 3053 1478 6957

12426 988 3130 1500 6807

12302 848 2978 1519 6958

13094 1104 3201 1626 7162

12811 828 3344 1625 7014

32824 3321 7652 3712 18138

34337 3071 8340 3908 19018

35321 3246 8586 4156 19333

35777 2636 8970 4493 19677

37822 2940 9310 4646 20927

8850 3445 5405

8777 3212 5565

8159 2875 5283

8588 3139 5450

7756 2714 5042

22721 7905 14816

22869 7900 14969

23695 8085 15611

25117 9204 15913

25524 9226 16298

11489 1598

11094 1481

10671 1605

11307 1614

11003 1541

30177 4346

31532 4207

31473 4708

32085 4260

33072 4701

IMPORTS, Total (Customs Value) Petroleum (revised, SA) Nonpetroleum

Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds Automotive Products From Canada From Other Consumer Goods Other Nonpetrol Imports ..

1993 May

.....

. .....

......

...

. ...

....

. ...

...---...... --

- ... -

... --

- ...... -

--- ----

-----

--- --- - -- -- -------

Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value* Volume (mbd)* Price ($/bbt)*

4444 8.60 16.67

4785 9.35 17.06

4555 8.58 17.13

4615 9.39 16.38

4235 8.92 15.31

12717 8.10 17.26

14105 8.36 18.34

13522 8.32 17.67

12296 8.41 16.23

13955 9.11 16.85

Passenger Car Imports (NSA) from Canada from Japan* from other (residual)

4848 1798 2016 1035

4647 7624 1971 1051

4088 1508 1637 943

4238 1786 1382 1070

3452 1082 1514 856

11670 4030 4384 3256

10608 3214 4397 2997

13357 3799 5832 3727

12422 4137 5377 2908

12972 4917 4990 3064

_ -- - - -- - - - -- - - -- - '------"----------'----- - - -- - - -- - - - -- - - -- - - - -- - - -- Unrevised data. ** Agricultural Industrial Supplies (primarily cotton and tobacco) are excluded from this line.

- - -

-10September 16,

1993 TABLE 3 U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PERIOD Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted (except as noted), Census-basis Data

Amount Change from Prev. Month Apr May Jun Jul

Amount Change from Prev. Qtr. Qtr-1 Qtr-2 Qtr-4 Qtr-3

$ Change from Year Earlier Q2-Q2

-------.-.-----.--.----.--.---

TRADE BALANCE (Census-basis) EXPORTS, Total (FAS Value) Agricultural Nonagricultural

271

1805

-3682

1718

-2970

2462

-3993

-4588

-9089

-416 101 -517

451 -158 609

-1290 -144 -1146

-556 111 -667

1066 510 556

4397 218 4179

-2532 -546 -1986

1721 -72 1792

4652 110 4542

603 174 175 168 85

-866 -197 -87 -524 -58

448 19 125 283 20

330 -66 -199 10 585

420 -8 -109 769 -233

-247 -206 41 8 -90

220 -26 -24 293 -23

Ind Supplies (Nonag)** Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds

-353 -27 -97 69 -297

52 -305 114 -57 300

-23 533 -162 -79 -315

-950 -1408 204 230 24

-349 -1080 37 356 339

2194 920 299 256 719

-1192 -994 -285 135 -48

1463 833 -194 18 806

Automotive Products Consumer Goods Other Nonagric Exports

117 -110 1

-126 260 -179

-184 -210 137

-326 158 4

344 491 -260

779 578 208

83 -460 -170

29 185 -105

. . . ..

. . . . . . ..

. . . . . . . ..

. . . . . ..

. . . . . . ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..

. . . . . ..

6308 1555 4753

13741 1254 12487

-41

-304

397 178 51 106 61

379 110 -208 -141 618

839 118 162 412 147

1740

-283 -276 143 -1 -148

984 175 246 248 315

455 -609 384 336 345

2045 303 340 153 1250

4998 -381 1658 933 2789

430 264 166

-832 -425 -407

826 185 641

1422 1119 303

-423 -395 124 -116 I~.------

636 9

-304 -73

IMPORTS, Total (Customs Value) -687 477 Petroleum (revised, SA) -1164 petroleum

-1354 -364 -991

2392 261 2130

-2274 -548 -1725

4037 1198 2839

1935 -581 2516

1461 -918 2379

Foods,Feeds,Beverages

-150

-34

-165

-133

Ind Supplies (ex Oil) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies

-477 -26 -141 12 -322

-14 -62 78 223 -252

227 52 145 -164 193

-198 18 -49 -50 -117

125 28 -29 -154 280

Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds

46 96 78 22 -150

-123 -141 -152 19 151

791 256 223 108 204

Automotive Products From Canada From Other

-73 -232 160

-618 -337 -281

Consumer Goods Other Nonpetrol Imports ------------.

1235 794 -327

612 -59 1355 -449 502 -139 ..----------------

434

-23 224

1106

2803 1321

1482 987 441

2895 355 .----------------

Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value* Volume (mbd)* Price ($/bbl)*

341 0.75 0.39

-231 -0.78 0.08

60 0.81 -0.75

-380 -0.47 -1.07

1387 0.26 1.08

-583 -0.04 -0.67

-1226 0.09 -1.45

1659 0.70 0.63

1238 1.01 -0.41

Passenger Car Imports (NSA) from Canada from Japan* from other (residual)

-202 -174 -45 17

-559 -117 -334 -108

151 278 -255 127

-786 -704 132 -214

-1062 -816 13 -259

2749 584 1435 730

-935 339 -454 -820

550 780 -387 157

1302 887 607 -192

Unrevised data. ** Agricultural Industrial Supplies (primarily cotton and tobacco) are excluded from this line.

-11September 16, 1993 TABLE 4 U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- PERCENT CHANGE Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted (except as noted), Census-basis Data

Percent Change from Prev, Qtr. Qtr-3 Qtr-4 Qtr-1 Qtr-2

Percent Change from Prev. Month Jul May Jun Apr . .. .. . . . . . . .

EXPORTS, Total (FAS Value) Agricutural Nonagricultural

-1.1 2.8 -1.5

Ind Supplies (Nonag)** Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies

. . . . . . .

% Change from Year Earlier Q2-Q2

. . . . . .

1.2 -4.2 1.8

-3.3 -4.0 -3.2

-1.5 3.2 -2.0

1.0 4.8 0.6

3.9 2.0 4.2

-2.2 -4.8 -1.9

1.5 -0.7 1.7

4.2 1.0 4.6

7.1 17.4 7.2 24.4 1.9

-9.5 -16.7 -3.3 -61.0 -1.3

5.4 2.0 4.9 84.7 0.5

1.3 -1.9 -2.5 1.2 4.5

1.6 -0.2 -1.4 94.3 -1.7

-1.0 -6.1 0.5 0.5 -0.7

0.9 -0.8 -0.3 18.4 -0.2

2.9 -8.8 -3.7 133.9 1.8

Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds

-2.3 -0.9 -4.0 4.6 -3.5

0.3 -10.0 4.9 -3.7 3.6

-0.2 19.4 -6.7 -5.2 -3.7

-6.2 -42.8 9.0 16.1 0.3

-0.8 -11.5 0.5 9.5 1.5

5.1 11.0 4.2 6.2 3.0

-2.6 -10.7 -3.8 3.1 -0.2

3.3 10.1 -2.7 0.4 3.3

4.8 -3.4 -2.0 20.4 7.8

Automotive Products Consumer Goods Other Nonagric Exports

2.7 -2.5 0.0

-2.8 6.1 -7.7

-4.3 -4.7 6.4

-7.9 3.7 0.2

3.0 4.0 -3.7

6.5 4.5 3.0

0.6 -3.5 -2.4

0.2 1.4 -1.5

10.6 6.5 -4.6

-1.4 10.7 -2.6

-2.8 -7.4 -2.3

5.1 5.7 5.0

-4.6 -11.4 -3.8

1.4 -4.1 2.1

1.1 -6.7 1.9

4.5 12.2 3.8

-6.3

2.9

1.6

-1.5

-2.3

-1.9

-0.6

-2.5 1.1 -5.9 -23.5 -2.2

0.6 0.7 -1.3 -29.7 1.9

1.7 2.5 -9.5 -29.8 4.1

-2.2 -25.0 4.5 -0.1 -2.1

4.6 -7.5 9.0 5.3 4.9

1.3 -18.8 4.5 8.1 1.8

-9.7 -13.5 -7.5

0.7 -0.1 1.0

IMPORTS, Total (Customs Value) Petroleum (revised, SA) /petroleum oods,Feeds,Beverages

-5.8 -1.7 -18.7 8.3 -5.6

Ind Supplies (ex Oil) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Gold (Census) Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Gds

-1.0 -14.2 -4.9 1.3 2.2 -0.8 -6.7 3.0

Automotive Products From Canada From Other

Consumer Goods Other Nonpetrol Imports .. .. .. ..

-3.4 -7.3 ..

Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value* Volume (mbd)* Price (S/bbl)* Passenger Car Imports (NSA) from Canada from Japan* from other (residual)

-0.2 -4.0 12.8 144.5 -4.7

-4.2 -9.7 -2.2 1.6

2.9 3.5 21.1 -43.5 3.8 6.4 30.2 7.5 7.1 2.9

-7.0 -10.5 -5.1 -3.8 8.4 ..

6.0 0.5

-2.7 -4.5

3.6 2.3 4.3

15.2 -11.5 21.7 25.1 15.4

6.0 13.8 1.9

1.6 0.2 2.4

3.1 1.9 -0.2 4.5 10.4 -9.5 11.9 -3.2 --------------- ------------... ..------------------------------------------------------

-4.8 -8.3 0.4

1.3 9.5 -4.4

-8.2 -5.0 -6.5

10.9 3.2 6.3

-4.1 -0.5 -3.7

-9.1 1.1 -8.2

-12.0 -7.2 -16.9 -10.3

3.7 18.4 -15.6 13.5

-18.6 -39.4 9.5 -20.0

-9.1 -20.2 0.3 -8.0

25.9 18.2 32.6 24.4

-7.0 8.9 -7.8 -22.0

------------------ --------------- ----------------

3.7 2.7 8.2 124.5 0.9

13.5 8.3 3.9

----------

irevised data. Agricultural Industrial Supplies (primarily cotton and tobacco) are excluded from this line.

-----------

12.3 16.7 10.0 9.6 8.2 --------

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1993, September 20). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19930921_part1

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19930921_part1,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1993},
  month = {Sep},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19930921_part1},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}