Greenbook/Tealbook
Prefatory Note
The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.
1
In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.
CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III FOMC
March
SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
18, 1994
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Consumer sentiment.
University of Michigan Survey Research Center: Survey of Consumer Attitudes ... THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY
Tab le Selected financial market quotations
.
........
SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES
THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Consumer Sentiment The Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell
slightly in early
March, owing to a moderate deterioration in households
assessments
of current conditions that was partly offset by a small improvement Although the March
in their expectations of future conditions. decline follows a similar drop in February
the overall index still
stands a substantial 15 points above its recent low in July 1993 Results for questions not included in the overall index were Little changed in the first part of March.
The index of car buying
conditions remained in a very favorable range
similar to that
observed in the mid-1980s, while the index of homebuying conditions edged down from the all-time high reached in February
Consumers'
expectations of future employment conditions were unchanged at a level that is much improved from the average reading of last summer The mean values of expected inflation climbed somewhat in early March, but the less volatile median values rose only slightly
Mean
expected inflation over the coming year climbed 0.6 percentage point to 4 3 percent 2.9 percent
but the median value rose 0.1 percentage point to The mean value of expected inflation over the next
five to ten years
rose 0.4 percentage point to 5 1 percent; the
median value rose just 0.1 percentage point to 3 3 percent
March 18, 1994 UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER: SURVEY OF CONSUMER ATTITUDES (Not seasonally adjusted)
1993 Jul
1993 Aug
1993 Sep
1993 Oct
1993 Nov
1993 Dec
1994 Jan
1994 Feb
1994 Mar(p)
Composite of current and expected conditions
77.0
77.3
77.9
82.7
81.2
88.2
94.3
93.2
92.1
Current conditions Expected conditions
96.2 64.7
95.1 65.8
95.2 66.8
98.7 72.5
98.2 70.3
102.9 78.8
106.6 86.4
108.3 83.5
103.4 84.9
102 112
96 114
104 114
104 119
107 121
113 122
115 123
114 127
108 126
80 66
76 73
77 76
95 76
83 77
107 87
126 99
121 88
121 94
141 147 171
138 150 166
134 143 170
132 151 170
139 147 172
144 153 174
148 162 174
155 167 176
154 160 175
42 65
42 58
50 65
43 58
55 81
50 63
50 70
52 70
54 70
Expected unemployment change - next 12 months
130
129
133
137
131
115
104
115
115
Expected inflation - next 12 months Expected inflation - next 5 to 10 years
4.4 5.0
4.9 4.6
4.8 4.6
4.0 4.8
3.6 4.5
3.8 4.8
3.5 4.8
3.7 4.7
4.3 5.1
Indexes of consumer sentiment (Feb. 1966=100)
Personal financial situation Now compared with 12 months ago* Expected in 12 months* Expected business conditions Next 12 months* Next 5 years* Appraisal of buying conditions Cars Large household appliances* Houses Willingness to use credit Willingness to use savings
* -- Indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. (p) (f)
--- Preliminary Final
Note: Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent reporting 'good times' (or 'better') minus the percent reporting 'bad times' (or 'worse'), plus 100. Asterisk (*) indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. Expected change in unemployment is the fraction expecting unemployment to rise minus the fraction expecting unemployment to fall.
SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (Percent except as noted) 1993 Instrument
1994
Mid-Oct lows
SHORT-TERM RATES 2 Federal funds 3 Treasury bills 3-month 6-month -year
Feb
Change to Mar
FOMC Feb
3
Mar
From Mid-Oct lows
[7
17
From Feb 3
1994 From FOMC Feb 4
3.07
3.07
3.07
3.22
0.15
0.15
0.15
3.01 3.09 3.23
3.13 3.27 3.52
3.23 3.38 3.69
3-47 3.79 4.08
0.46 0.70 0.85
0.34 0.52 0.56
0.24 0.41 0.39
3.13 3.23
3.16 3.25
3.16 3.25
3.60 3.82
0.47 0.59
0.44 0.57
0,44
3.08 3.22 3.23
3.11 3.25 3.41
3.13 3.26 3.43
3.51 3.75 4.00
0.43 0-53 0.77
0,40 0.50 0.59
0.38 0.49 0.57
Eurodollar deposits 1-month 3-month
3.06 3.25
3.06 3.25
3.13 3.31
3.44 3.75
0.38 0.50
0.38 0.50
0.31 0.44
Bank prime rate
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.06 5.19 5.78
4.60 5.81 6.31
4.75 5.94 6.37
5.34 6.40 6.82
..28 .21 0 .04
0.74
0.59 0.51
0.59 0.46 0.45
5.41
5.49
5.49
6.06
0.65
0.57
0.57
6.79
7.35
7.35
7.79
.00
0.44
0 .44
6.74 4.14
6.97 4.12
6.97 4.12
7.63 4.51
0.89 0-37
0.66 0.39
0.66 0.39
Commercial -month 3-month
paper 0.57
3 Large negotiable CDs
1-month 3-month 6-month 4
INTERMEDIATE- AND LONG-TERM RATES U.S. Treasury 3-year 10-year 30-year
(constant maturity)
5 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) Corporate A utility. recently offered 6 Home mortgages FHLMC 30-yr fixed rate FHLMC '-yr adjustable rate i
1989
1994
1
'
Percentage change to Mar 17
Record high ________________
Stock exchange index Level
Dow-Jones Industrial NYSE
Com
osite
NASDAQ (OTC) Wilshire
3978.36 267
Date
1/31/94 2144.64
71
2/2/94
803.85
3/17/94 2/2/94
4804.31
Low. Jan. 3
154n
378.56 2718.59
1 One-day quotes except as noted. 2. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for maintenance period ending March 16. 1994. 3. Secondary market
FOMC. Feb 4
3871.42 700 26 1 777.28 4685.14
Mar
17
3865.14 7 261 11 803.85 4730.58
From
From
record high
1989 low
-2.85 -2 47 0.00 -1.53
80.22 69 55 112.34 74.01
4. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time, 5. Most recent observation based on one-day Thursday quote and futures market index changes. 6. Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown.
From FOMC. Feb 4
-0.16 -0.04 3.42 0.97
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1994, March 21). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19940322_part3
@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19940322_part3,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
year = {1994},
month = {Mar},
howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19940322_part3},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}