Greenbook/Tealbook
Prefatory Note
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1
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CONFIDENTIAL (FR) FOMC CLASS III
May 19,
SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
1995
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY .
.
.
.
Indicators of housing demand
.
.
...
Errata
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1
Chart
THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY May Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on bank lending practices . . . . . . . . .. Tables Selected financial market quotations
. .
. .
. .
. .
Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit
....
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S. international trade in goods and services U.K. economic developments . . . . . . . . . . Tables
U.S. international trade in goods and services . U.S. trade in goods and services: Summary details. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Summary of months and quarters--dollar changes . Summary of months and quarters--percent changes.
SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES
THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Errata 1
On page 1-21
the fifth line below the table contains a
typographical error.
The phrase "risk in interest rates" should
read "rise in interest rates." 2
On page II 18, the upper panel of the chart is mislabeled:
The
solid line is the index of consumer homebuying attitudes and the dashed line is single-family housing starts. of the chart is attached.
A corrected copy
Indicators of Housing Demand (Seasonally adjusted; FRB seasonals except starts) Consumer Homebuying Attitudes Millions of units, annual rate
\
Single-famrnily starts (left scale)
4
*
Diffusion index -100
"1 /A
% 1
-
75
-
S0
-
25
\- Apr
0.7 [
udes May [p)
0.4 I
1987
I
I
1988
1989
I
1990
I
1991
-- I
I
1993
1992
--1995
1994
Note. The homebuying attitudes index is calculated by the Survey ResearchCenter (University of Michigan) as the proportion of respondents rating current conditions as good minus the proportion rating such conditions as bad.
Builders' Rating of New Home Sales Diffusion index
Millions of units, annual rate
(left scale)
May -
I
|
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1992
1994
1995
Note. The index is calculated from National Association of Homebuilders data as the proportion of respondents rating current sales as good to excellent minus the proportion rating them as poor.
MBA Index of Mortgage Loan Applications Millions of units, annual rate
Index, March 16, 1990 = 100 Single-family starts (left scale) ~.p I%/
~
'~
Purchase index (right scale)
1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993
1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
-3THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY The May Senior Loan Officer Opinion The May 1995
Survey on Bank Lending Practices
Senior Loan Officer
Opinion Survey on Bank Lending
Practices posed questions about changes in bank lending standards and terms,
changes in loan demand by businesses and households,
merger and acquisitions activity, and the effects on the availability of credit of lender liability concerns.
Fifty-eight
domestic commercial banks and twenty-two branches and agencies of foreign banks participated in the survey. Supply conditions appear to have eased further over the past three months.
The survey found that a relatively small net fraction
of banks reported having eased standards on commercial and industrial loans
to firms
of all
about as in the last survey.
sizes over the past three months--
Large shares of the domestic and
foreign respondents reported easing some terms on commercial and industrial loans
and lines of credit over the past three months.
Standards for approving commercial unchanged in the latest survey. significant share of the banks make consumer loans,
real estate
loans were about
In the household sector, a reported increased willingness to
and a smaller net
share reported an easing of
standards for home mortgage loans. Credit demand by businesses continued to demand by households was
reported to have weakened.
of the respondents reported industrial loans,
strengthen, while A large share
stronger demand for commercial and
especially by larger firms, over the past three
months, while a smaller fraction indicated a pickup in demand for commercial
real estate loans.
In contrast, more of the respondents
reported a weakening of demand for installment loans and home equity
loans than reported a strengthening, and a slightly larger net share
-4of the respondents
indicated that demand for residential mortgages
had declined. and industrial loans other than for mergers
Commercial
The survey found that few banks, had eased
less than
10 percent on net,
standards on commercial and industrial loans to
small firms
over the past three months.
large and
An even smaller net
percentage had eased standards on loans to middle-market borrowers. Branches and agencies of foreign banks also reported a small easing The fractions reporting easing in
of business lending standards.
the May survey were similar to those in the January survey. Many of the respondents terms
reported that they had eased their
on business loans over the past three months, and
handful reported tightening terms.
only a
Large fractions of the domestic
respondents reported having reduced credit-line costs and
tightened
spreads of loan rates over base rates for large and middle-market firms.
Fewer banks reported having eased these terms for small
firms.
In addition, significant, though smaller, fractions of the
respondents reported having eased other terms,
including the size of
credit lines, the costs of credit lines, loan covenants, and collateralization requirements. noted having eased terms
loan terms.
Foreign branches and agencies
also
The latest survey results regarding
on business loans are similar to those reported
since the end
of 1993, with about half the banks indicating a narrowing of spreads on loans to large and middle-market firms, about a quarter narrowing spreads to smaller firms, and smaller fractions of banks easing other loan terms.
The
respondents attributed the easing of loan
terms and standards reported in the latest survey to more aggressive competition from other commercial banks and, to a somewhat lesser extent, from nonbank lenders. respondents noted that demand
In addition, a large fraction of the for business loans from firms
of all
-5-
sizes had become more sensitive to the terms offered at their bank relative to terms available at their competitors. As has been true for the past several surveys, many banks reported increased demand for business loans over the preceding three months.
On net, about 30 percent of the respondents reported
greater demand by large firms, 25 percent by middle-market firms, and about 10 percent by small firms.
These percentages are lower
than those reported in the January survey.
The respondents
indicated that the higher demand was due to growth in customers' inventory financing needs and investment in plant and equipment.
In
addition, merger and acquisition activity reportedly boosted demand, especially by larger customers.
Only about 5 percent of the foreign
branches and agencies, on net, reported an increase in demand. Commercial real estate loans As in the January survey, both domestic and foreign respondents indicated that credit standards for commercial real estate loans were little changed over the past three months.
The number of
respondents that reported having tightened standards for construction and land development loans slightly exceeded the number that reported easing standards.
On net, the banks reported that
demand for commercial real estate loans (a new question on this survey) was higher than it had been three months earlier. Loans to individuals Nearly 20 percent of the domestic respondents reported that they are more willing to make consumer installment loans now than they were three months ago, a slightly larger share than in January. A similar fraction reported increased willingness to make generalpurpose loans to individuals, including home-equity loans.
The
respondents also reported a slight net easing of standards for approving residential mortgage applications.
-6As in January, the survey suggested some softening of consumer credit demands.
Nearly 10 percent of banks, on net, reported lower Before
demand for consumer installment loans and home-equity loans.
the January survey, there had not been a reported net decline in demand for consumer installment credit since the beginning of 1992. On balance, about 15 percent of the banks reported weaker demand for residential mortgages, following three surveys in which more than half of the respondents reported weaker mortgage demand. Loans to finance mergers and acquisitions Special questions on the May survey asked about loans to finance mergers and acquisitions.
The respondents indicated that
loans and undrawn commitments that were part of financing packages for mergers and acquisitions had increased over the past year.
At
the time of the survey, about half of this financing represented undrawn commitments.
On balance, only a small fraction of the
respondents reported having eased standards for approving applications for loans to finance mergers and acquisitions over the past year.
In contrast, about 20 percent of the banks, on net,
reported having eased terms on such loans over the same period. Effects of lender liability Another set of special questions asked about the effects on the cost and availability of business credit of banks' concerns about lender liability under federal or state environmental laws.
More
than a quarter of the domestic respondents reported that they received loan applications that raised lender liability concerns either fairly frequently or quite frequently.
On average, the banks
reported that they rejected about a fifth of these applications solely as a result of lender liability concerns.
The respondents
also noted that even when they are willing to make such loans, they often charge higher fees or wider spreads.
Moreover, they estimated
-7that nearly a third of the loans that they were willing to make with higher spreads or fees were subsequently rejected by the borrower as a result of the increased cost.
SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (Percent except as noted) 1994 Instrument
1995
I Change to May 18, 1995:
From 1994 FOMC, I IMar 28IMay 18 1 Feb 3 1 1________________ I1_______ -II
Feb 3
High
-
I
From 19941 From FOMC high Mar 28
I-
SHORT-TERM RATES
2 Federal funds
3.07
5.66
6.00
6-01
2.94
0-35
3.13
3.27 3.52
5.78 6.38 6.84
5.71 5.83 5.98
5.69 5.68 5.66
2-56 2-41 2.14
-0.09 -0.70 -1-18
-0.02 -0.15 -0.32
3.16 3.25
6.13 6.32
6.07 6.12
6.05 6.05
2.89 2.80
-0.08
-0.02 -0.07
3.11 3.25 3.41
6.10 6.39 6.89
6.03 6.12 6.31
5-99 6.04 6.06
2.88 2.79 2.65
-0.11 -0.35
3.06 3.25
6.06 6.38
6.00 6.13
5.97 6.00
2.91 2.75
-0.38
-0.03 -0.13
6.00
8.50
9.00
9.00
3.00
0.50
0.00
4.60 5.81 6.31
7.82 8.16
6.85 7.16 7.41
6.28 6.61 6.91
1.68 0.80 0.60
-1.54 -1.43 -1.25
-0.57 -0.55 -0.50
5.49
7.37
6.34
6.15
0.66
-1.22
-0.19
7.35
9.05
8.37
7.81
0.46
-1.24
-0.56
6.97 4.12
9.25 6.79
8.40 6.41
7.87 6.12
0.90 2.00
-1.38 -0.67
-0.53 -0.29
0.01
3 Treasury bills 3-month 6-month 1-year Commercial paper 1-month 3-month Large negotiable CDs 1-month 3-month 6-month 4 Eurodollar deposits 1-month 3-month Bank prime rate INTERMEDIATE- AND LONG-TERM RATES
Corporate--A utility, recently offered 6 Home mortgages FHLMC 30-yr. fixed rate FHLMC 1-yr. adjustable rate -
8-.04
1989
Dow-Jones Industrial NYSE Composite NASDAQ (OTC) Wilshire
| I
Level
I I I I
4437.47 284.27 871.93 5171.41
-0.09
I-
Record high
Stock exchange index
-0.83
-0.04 -0.08 -0.25
I
U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 3-year 10-year 30-year 4 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer)
-
-0.27
I !
Date
_______
1995
Percentage change to May 18: I
___
.1
Low, I FOMC, I Jan. 31 Mar 28 I May 18
5/15/95 2144.64 5/16/95 154.00 5/17/95 378.56 5/16/95 2718.59
1. One-day quotes except as noted. 2. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average to date for maintenance period ending May 24, 1995. 3. Secondary market.
4151.81 271.95 826.14 4940.44
4340.64 279.80 864.06 5096.42
From I record I high I -1I. -2.18 -1.57 -0.90 -1.45
From 1989 low 102.39 81.69 128.25 87.47
4. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5. Most recent observation based on one-day Thursday quote and futures market index changes. 6. Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown.
I I From FOM C, ! Mar 28 4.55 2.89 4.59 3.16
Commecial Bank Credit and Short- and Intermediate-Term Business Credit 1 (Percentage change; seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Level, 1994 Q4
of credit Type1994
1995 Q1
1995 Feb
1995 Mar
1995 Apr
Apr 1995
(billionsof $) Commercial bank credit
1. Total loans and securities 2.
Securities
3.
U.S. government
4.
Other
5.
6.7
4.0
4.7
8.2
14.0
3,424.5
4.8
-7.6
-10.9
2.9
15.8
951.6
-8.1
-20.6
-.2
704.4
0.0
Loans
-11.2
23.6
4.5
-19.8
79.6
63.9
247.2
7.6
8.8
10.8
10.2
13.2
2,472.9
6.
Business
9.2
10.3
21.7
6.3
15.9
682.0
7.
Real estate
6.5
7.8
9.1
6.6
8.9
1,036.0
8.
Consumer
15.2
16.4
5.2
14.6
15.2
471.0
9.
Security
-17.2
-20.0
-14.0
33.6
60.3
73.2
3.3
3.4
5.3
23.9
5.7
210.6
10.
Other
Short- and intermediate-term business credit 10.9
18.2
23.5
7.1
15.3
674.8
2 12. Loans at foreign branches
-3.5
15.9
20.5
-5.0
45.6
24.6
13. Sum of lines 11 and 12
10.6
18.1
23.4
6.6
16.3
699.4
14. Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms
25.0
22.1
20.1
20.4
36.7
178.5
7.6
13.3
18.8
22.6
9.2
20.6
877.9
-8.3
-25.7
-21.2
0.0
20.2
-6.6
18.0
12.2
17.0
20.3
18.9
15.0
n.a.
371.4
8.6
13.7
18.7
21.2
11.2
n.a.
1,252.75
11. Business loans net of bankers acceptances
15. Sum of lines 13 and 14 16. Bankers acceptances, U.S. traderelated3, 4 17. Loans at finance companies
4
18. Total (sum of lines 15, 16, and 17)
9.4
1. Except as noted, levels are averages of Wednesday data and percentage changes are based on averages of Wednesday data. For years, "percentage change" is percentage change in quarterly average from fourth quarter of preceding year to fourth quarter of specified year. For quarters, it is the percentage change in quarterly average from preceding quarter to specified quarter, annualized. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassification. 2. Loans to U.S. firms made by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. 4. Levels and changes are based on averages of month-end data. 5. March 1995. n.a. Not available.
-10-
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S.
International Trade in Goods and Services In March, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services was
about the same as in February and substantially less than in January.
For both exports and imports, increases were spread among
most trade categories.
Nonetheless, for the first quarter the
deficit was larger than in the fourth quarter. Exports in the first quarter were 2 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of last year.
This was a slower rate of growth than
recorded during the past year, and reflects in part a drop in shipments to Mexico.
Increases in industrial supplies, machinery,
agricultural goods, and automotive products to countries other than Mexico, were partly offset by a sharp drop in exports of aircraft, automotive products to Mexico, and consumer goods. Imports in the first quarter were 3 percent higher than in the fourth quarter; this was the same rate of growth as recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. trade categories. quarter;
Increases were recorded in all major
The price of oil rose in each month of the first
for the quarter, the rise in price just about offset a
small decline in quantity. U.K. Economic Developments U.K. retail sales fell 0.2 percent in April from a month earlier, and fourth
and first-quarter data were revised down slightly.
The
decline in retail sales occurred despite reports of higher sales by business surveys.
The recent weakness is primarily due to a decline
in household good sales, which reflects the poor housing market.
UNITED KINGDOM ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Percent change from previous period except where noted, SA) 1994
Retail sales (Previous)
Q3
Q4
Q1
.7
.2 (.3)
-.2 (- .1)
Jan.
1995 Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
-1.3 (-1.2)
1.3 (1.2)
-.3 (-.1)
-.2
-11B.1 .a.
May 18, 1995
TABLE 1 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (in bittions of dollars, seasonally adjusted)
---------------------------------NIPA Real Net Exports G & S */
Balance ---------------------------. G & S Merch.
(1)
(2)
(3)
From the Monthly ress Release 1/------------------------I Exports I Imports ----------------------------------------------------------Services G& S Merch. Services G& S Merch. (4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
Services (10)
Years -32.4 -74.0 -110.0
-40.4 -75.7 -106.6
-96.1 -132.6 -166.6
55.7 56.8 60.0
616.9 641.7 697.9
440.4 456.9 502.6
176.6 184.8 195.3
657.3 717.4 804.5
536.5 589.4 669.2
120.9 128.0 135.3
1994 Qtr 1 2 3 4
-104.0 -111.8 -117.0 -107.1
-97.3 -106.6 -114.9 -107.5
-148.2 -166.9 -178.5 -172.7
50.9 60.3 63.5 65.2
658.9 681.7 709.2 741.6
471.4 490.0 510.6 538.4
187.6 191.7 198.7 203.2
756.2 788.3 824.2 849.1
619.6 656.9 689.0 711.1
136.6 131.3 135.2 138.0
1995 Qtr 1
-119.7
-120.9
-181.6
60.7
754.2
551.7
202.5
875.1
733.3
141.8
1992 1993 1994
Quarters (AR):
1
1
Monthly Rates: Monthly Rates:
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-4.7 -3.3 -6.4 -6.4 -5.0 -7.7 -7.5 -6.8 -8.0 -7.9 -7.5 -4.5
-9.3 -8.7 -11.2 -11.3 -10.0 -12.5 -12.3 -11.6 -12.5 -12.5 -11.5 -9.1
51.5 51.8 53.9 53.4 54.0 52.7 52.0 52.7 53.3 55.1 54.5 56.7
36.7 36.4 38.6 37.9 38.6 37.3 36.5 37.4 37.9 39.4 39.4 41.0
14.8 15.5 15.3 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.7 15.1 15.8
56.2 55.2 60.2 59.8 59.0 60.3 59.5 59.6 61.3 63.0 62.0 61.3
46.1 45.0 49.7 49.2 48.6 49.7 48.8 49.0 50.4 51.9 50.9 50.1
10.2 10.1 10.5 10.6 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.1 11.2
1994 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-7,8 -9.6 -6.9 -8.6 -9.2 -8.8 -10.7 -9.1 -8.9 -10.0 -9.6 -7.3
-12.0 -13.6 -11.5 -13.4 -14.3 -14.1 -16,0 -14.1 -14.5 -15.1 -15.2 -12.9
53.6 52.8 58.4 55.9 56.2 58.3 56.5 60.3 60.5 59.9 61.9 63.6
38.5 37.4 42.0 40.3 40.2 42.0 40.1 44.1 43.5 43.3 44.8 46.5
15.1 15.5 16.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.2 17.0 16.6 17.1 17.1
61.4 62.4 65.2 64.5 65.4 67.1 67.2 69.4 69.4 69.9 71.5 70.9
50.5 50.9 53.5 53.7 54.5 56.0 56.1 58.2 58.0 58.4 60.0 59.4
10.9 11.5 11.8 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.5
1995 Jan Feb Mar
-12.0 -9.2 -9.1
-16.9 -14.3 -14.2
61.0 62.3 65.3
44.3 45.4 48.2
16.7 16.8 17.1
72.9 71.4 74.5
61.2 59.7 62.5
11.8 11.7 12.0
1993 Jan Feb Mar
Apr
1/ U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis, BOP vaLuation. */ In billions of 1987 dollars. Note: Details may not add to totals because of rounding.
-12B.1.b.
May 18, 1995 TABLE 2 U.S. TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES: SUMMARY DETAILS (Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted)
1994 Nov
1994 Dec
TRADE BALANCE (G&S)
-9,628
EXPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold
1995 Jan
1995 Feb
1995 Mar
-7,261 -11,953
-9,151
-9,115
-24,317 -26,640 -28,735 -26,885 -30,219
61,909 17,095 4,545 229 40,040
63,611 17,121 4,731 318 41,442
60,964 16,665 4,460 265 39,574
62,251 65,344 16,830 17,142 4,647 4,840 296 845 40,478 42,517
164,737 170,427 177,311 185,401 188,559 46,888 47,919 49,671 50,808 50,637 10,925 10,944 11,680 13,521 13,947 2,338 1,433 1,156 857 1,406 104,586 110,131 114,804 120,215 122,569
9,610 955 3,248 798 4,609
10,018 1,242 3,303 752 4,721
10,276 1,145 3,357 735 5,040
10,450 1,050 3,508 789 5,104
10,761 1,152 3,561 771 5,277
24,019 2,721 7,856 2,092 11,349
25,544 2,819 8,491 2,099 12,134
27,888 3,144 9,109 2,323 13,312
29,152 3,288 9,632 2,307 13,925
31,488 3,347 10,426 2,295 15,421
18,063 2,731 3,034 2,302 9,997
18,916 2,584 3,051 2,518 10,763
16,915 1,471 2,948 2,281 10,216
17,818 2,274 3,037 2,424 10,083
19,315 2,563 3,105 2,717 10,929
48,637 8,562 7,846 5,845 26,384
51,016 8,518 8,006 5,989 28,503
51,758 7,142 8,468 6,304 29,845
53,868 7,381 9,008 7,041 30,438
54,048 6,308 9,090 7,422 31,227
Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World
4,887 2,816 704 1,366
5,579 3,078 679 1,822
5,356 3,325 535 1,495
5,174 2,982 487 1,705
5,031 2,730 473 1,828
13,489 7,208 1,983 4,297
13,883 7,626 2,100 4,157
14,410 7,746 1,900 4,764
15,461 8,651 2,132 4,678
15,561 9,037 1,495 5,029
Consumer Goods All Other Merchandise
5,481 1,999
5,309 1,619
4,989 2,037
5,242 1,795
5,390 2,020
13,846 4,595
14,575 5,114
15,352 5,395
16,199 5,535
15,620 5,852
71,537 11,553 4,575 208 55,201
70,872 11,486 4,096 180 55,110
72,917 11,765 4,123 148 56,881
71,402 11,678 4,336 182 55,206
74,459 12,008 4,681 769 57,001
9,773 1,937 1,182 1,094 5,560
9,908 1,965 1,116 1,153 5,675
10,274 2,186 1,167 1,095 5,827
9,884 2,067 1,047 1,053 5,717
10,621 2,117 1,198 987 6,319
25,287 4,967 2,876 2,984 14,459
26,581 5,147 3,174 3,103 15,157
27,667 5,461 3,384 3,216 15,606
29,269 5,776 3,474 3,302 16,716
30,779 6,370 3,412 3,134 17,863
Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods
16,964 1,050 4,425 2,542 8,946
16,791 1,074 4,219 2,537 8,961
17,220 780 4,294 2,795 9,351
16,856 826 4,114 2,608 9,308
17,445 1,041 4,258 2,620 9,526
42,582 2,823 10,468 5,754 23,538
44,706 3,078 11,113 5,915 24,599
46,936 50,327 2,977 2,462 11,813 12,826 7,669 6,742 25,919 26,855
51,521 2,646 12,666 8,024 28,185
Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World
10,743 4,142 1,490 5,111
10,729 4,080 1,380 5,270
11,070 4,248 1,406 5,416
10,708 4,040 1,423 5,245
10,781 3,982 1,610 5,190
27,020 9,278 3,345 14,397
29,125 10,348 3,553 15,224
30,838 11,098 3,474 16,265
31,702 11,923 4,284 15,495
32,559 12,270 4,438 15,851
Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages All Other Merchandise
12,913 2,638 2,171
12,892 2,657 2,133
13,441 2,854 2,022
13,073 2,803 1,882
13,157 2,885 2,111
34,443 7,343 5,616
36,122 7,612 6,065
37,135 8,034 5,780
38,593 7,968 6,464
39,670 8,542 6,015
Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Building Materials Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods
IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Petroleum Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold Ind Supplies (Ex Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies
Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price ($/bbl) ............
1994 Qtr-1
1994 Qtr-2
1994 Qtr-3
1994 Qtr-4
1995 Qtr-1
189,054 197,067 206,046 212,286 218,778 34,157 32,837 33,793 34,510 35,451 10,409 12,850 15,157 12,790 13,141 706 665 1,098 2,198 1,169 142,291 150,211 156,390 164,321 169,087
9,942 12,423 14,799 12,415 12,321 4,601 3,782 3,938 4,022 4,359 8.736 8.939 9.531 10.113 8.918 9.333 8.567 8.310 8.700 9.399 15.66 15.10 15.91 14.33 12.39 15.90 15.77 15.29 14.91 15.46 ...........------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-13B.1 .c.
May 18, 1995 TABLE 3 U.S. TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- DOLLAR CHANGES (Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted)
Amount Change from Prev. Month Dec Jan Feb Mar
EXPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coal,petrot,etc) Chemicals Building Materials Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other capital Goods Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World Consumer Goods Alt Other Merchandise
Amount Change from Prev. Qtr. Qtr-2 Qtr-3 Qtr-4 atr-1
$ Change from Year Earlier 01-01
1,702 26 185 89 1,402
-2,647 -456 -270 -53 -1,868
1,287 165 186 31 905
3,093 312 193 549 2,039
5,690 1,031 18 -905 5,546
6,884 1,752 736 -277 4,673
8,090 1,137 1,841 -299 5,410
3,158 -171 426 549 2,354
23,822 3,749 3,022 -932 17,983
408 287 55 -46 112
258 -97 54 -17 319
175 -95 151 54 64
311 102 53 -17 173
1,525 98 635 7 785
2,345 326 618 224 1,177
1,263 143 523 -16 613
2,336 59 794 -12 1,496
7,469 626 2,570 202 4,071
853 -147 17 216 766
-2,000 -1,113 -103 -237 -548
902 803 89 143 -133
1,497 289 68 293 847
2,379 -44 160 144 2,119
742 -1,377 462 315 1,342
2,110 239 541 737 593
180 -1,072 82 381 789
5,411 -2,254 1,244 1,577 4,843
693 262 -25 456
-224 247 -143 -327
-182 -343 -49 210
-143 -252 -13 123
394 418 116 -140
527 120 -199 607
1,051 905 231 -85
100 386 -637 350
2,072 1,829 -488 732
-172 -381
-320 419
253 -243
148 226
729 519
777 282
847 140
-578 317
1,774 1,258
--- --- -. . -- . --- --- -- . . - -. . - --- - ---- ---- - --- --- -. . --- -- --- --- -- ---. . - -- ---- . . - -- --- --- -- --- --- --- -- --- ---- --- --- --- -- -
IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services
-665 -67 -479 -28 -91
2,045 279 28 -33 1,771
-1,515 -87 213 34 -1,676
135 29 -67 59 115
366 221 51 -58 152
-390 -119 -120 -42 -110
Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods
-173 24 -206 -5 14
429 -294 75 258 391
Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World
-13 -62 -110 159 -21 18 -38
Petroleum Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold Ind Supplies (Ex Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies
Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages ALL Other Merchandise -.
8,979 956 2,307 -463 6,179
6,240 717 -2,367 -41 7,931
6,492 941 352 434 4,766
29,724 1,294 2,732 -1,099 26,797
737 50 152 -66 602
1,294 179 298 118 698
1,086 314 210 114 449
1,602 315 90 86 1,111
1,511 594 -61 -168 1,146
5,493 1,403 536 150 3,404
-364 46 -180 -187 -43
589 215 144 12 219
2,123 256 645 162 1,061
2,230 -616 700 827 1,320
3,391 515 1,013 927 936
1,195 -331 -160 355 1,330
8,939 -176 2,198 2,270 4,647
341 168 26 146
-362 -208 17 -171
73 -59 187 -55
2,105 1,070 208 827
1,714 751 -78 1,041
863 824 810 -771
857 347 154 356
5,539 2,992 1,094 1,453
549 197 -111
-368 -51 -140
85 82 229
1,679 269 450
1,013 422 -286
1,457 -66 684
1,078 574 -448
5,228 1,199 400
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------.--------------------------------.
Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price ($/bbl) -.
8,013 -1,320 2,442 -1,029 7,920
3,057 330 345 587 1,795
-336 -0.699 -0.54
...................................................................................................................
-85 -0.390 0.37
-156 0.257 0.48
819 0.767 0.14
2,481 0.613 1.94
2,376 0.581 1.58
-2,383 -1.174 -0.81
-94 -0.202 0.56
2,379 -0.182 3.27
-14B.1.d.
May 18,
1995
TABLE 4 U.S. TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES:
SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- PERCENT CHANGES (Percent change from previous period)
Percent Change from Prev. Month Dec Jan Feb Mar
Percent Change from Prev. Qtr. Qtr-2 Qtr-3 Qtr-4 Qtr-1 - - - - - -.
EXPORTS, Total (G&S)
2.7 0.2 4.1 38.9 3.5
-4.2 -2.7 -5.7 -16.6 -4.5
2.1 1.0 4.2 11.7 2.3
5.0 1.9 4.2 185.5 5.0
3.5 2.2 0.2 -38.7 5.3
Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coat,petrol,etc) Chemicals Building Materials Other Ind Supplies
4.2 30.0 1.7 -5.8 2.4
2.6 -7.8 1.6 -2.3 6.7
1.7 -8.3 4.5 7.4 1.3
3.0 9.7 1.5 -2.2 3.4
Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods
4.7 -5.4 0.6 9.4 7.7
-10.6 -43.1 -3.4 -9.4 -5.1
5.3 54.6 3.0 6.3 -1.3
Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World
14.2 9.3 -3.6 33.4
-4.0 8.0 -21.1 -17.9
-3.1 -19.0
-6.0 25.9
-0.9 -0.6 -10.5 -13.4 -0.2
2.9 2.4 0.7 -18.1 3.2
Ind Supplies (Ex Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies
1.4 1.5 -5.7 5.3 2.1
Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods
-1.0 2.3 -4.7 -0.2 0.2
Services
Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold
Consumer Goods ALL Other Merchandise
- - -.
- -. - -
- - --.
--- --
4.0 3.7 6.7 -19.3 4.2
4.6 2.3 15.8 -25.8 4.7
1.7 -0.3 3.2 64.0 2.0
6.3 3.6 8.1 0.3 6.9
9.2 11.5 7.3 10.7 9.7
4.5 4.6 5.7 -0.7 4.6
8.0 1.8 8.2 -0.5 10.7
31.1 23.0 32.7 9.7 35.9
8.4 12.7 2.3 12.1 8.4
4.9 -0.5 2.0 2.5 8.0
1.5 -16.2 5.8 5.3 4.7
4.1 3.3 6.4 11.7 2.0
0.3 -14.5 0.9 5.4 2.6
11.1 -26.3 15.9 27.0 18.4
-3.4 -10.3 -9.1 14.0
-2.8 -8.5 -2.8 7.2
2.9 5.8 5.9 -3.3
3.8 1.6 -9.5 14.6
7.3 11.7 12.2 -1.8
0.6 4.5 -29.9 7.5
15.4 25.4 -24.6 17.0
5.1 -11.9
2.8 12.6
5.3 11.3
5.3 5.5
5.5 2.6
-3.6 5.7
12.8 27.4
-2.1 -0.7 5.2 23.3 -2.9
4.3 2.8 8.0 322.4 3.3
4.2 -3.9 23.5 -46.8 5.6
4.6 2.9 17.9 -39.6 4.1
3.0 2.1 -15.6 -5.8 5.1
3.1 2.7 2.7 65.2 2.9
15.7 3.8 26.3 -50.0 18.8
3.7 11.2 4.6 -5.0 2.7
-3.8 -5.4 -10.3 -3.8 -1.9
7.5 2.4 14.5 -6.3 10.5
5.1 3.6 10.4 4.0 4.8
4.1 6.1 6.6 3.7 3.0
5.8 5.8 2.6 2.7 7.1
5.2 10.3 -1.8 -5.1 6.9
21.7 28.2 18.6 5.0 23.5
2.6 -27.4 1.8 10.2 4.4
-2.1 5.9 -4.2 -6.7 -0.5
3.5 26.0 3.5 0.4 2.3
5.0 9.1 6.2 2.8 4.5
5.0 -20.0 6.3 14.0 5.4
7.2 20.9 8.6 13.7 3.6
2.4 -11.1 -1.2 4.6 5.0
21.0 -6.2 21.0 39.5 19.7
-3.3 -4.9 1.2 -3.2
0.7 -1.4 13.1 -1.1
7.8 11.5 6.2 5.7
5.9 7.3 -2.2 6.8
2.8 7.4 23.3 -4.7
...................................................................................................
IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services PetroLeum Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold
Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages All Other Merchandise
% Change from Year Earlier Q1-01
14.5 8.0 27.7 -39.9 17.2
20.5 32.3 32.7 10.1
-0.2 0.7 -1.8
4.3 7.4 -5.2
-2.7 -1.8 -6.9
0.6 2.9 12.2
4.9 3.7 8.0
2.8 5.5 -4.7
3.9 -0.8 11.8
2.8 7.2 -6.9
15.2 16.3 7.1
-7.7 -7.4 -3.5
-2.1 -4.5 2.5
-4.0 3.1 3.2
21.7 8.9 0.9
25.0 6.9 15.6
19.1 6.1 11.0
-16.1 -11.6 -5.1
-0.8 -2.3 3.7
23.9 -2.0 26.4
Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price C$/bbl) .....................................................................................................................
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1995, May 22). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19950523_part1
@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19950523_part1,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
year = {1995},
month = {May},
howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19950523_part1},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}