Greenbook/Tealbook

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1

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CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC

August 18,

SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff Board of Governors

of the Federal Reserve System

1995

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Consumer sentiment

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.

1

..

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3

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10

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11

Table University of Michigan Survey Research Center: Survey of consumer attitudes ...... THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on bank lending practices. . . . . . . Tables Selected financial market quotations Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S. international trade in goods and services

. .

Tables U.S.

international trade in goods and services

. .

U.S. trade in goods and services: Summary details . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Summary of months and quarters--dollar changes. Summary of months and quarters- percent changes

. .

12 13 14

SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES

THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Consumer

Sentiment

According to preliminary results from the Michigan SRC consumer

sentiment was mixed

in early August.

survey,

Based on the first

60 percent of the final August sample, consumers' assessments of current conditions posted a large gain, but their expectations about future

conditions deteriorated a bit.

On net, the composite index

rose to a level of 96.5 from a June reading of 94.4. Among survey items not included in the composite index, consumers' assessments

of buying conditions for

cars and houses

retreated only a bit after considerable improvements in July, but a sharp July rise in the proportion of consumers willing to use credit to finance big-ticket items was reversed.

Unemployment expectations

were essentially unchanged from July's level, which had shown a substantial rise in unemployment fears compared with the range that had prevailed over the previous year.

However, even this higher

level of unemployment expectations remains consistent with moderate consumption growth. Mean expectations about both near-term inflation and longerterm inflation were 3.6 percent in early August, 3.8 percent and 4.3 percent,

down from

respectively, in July.

Median

inflation expectations edged down 0.1 percentage point for both near-term and long term inflation, to 2.8 percent and respectively.

3.0 percent,

August 18, 1995 UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER: SURVEY OF CONSUMER ATTITUDES

(Not seasonally adjusted) 1994 Dec

1995 Jan

1995 Feb

1995 Mar

1995 Apr

1995 May

1995 Jun

1995 Jul

1995 Aug (p)

Indexes of consumer sentiment (Feb. 1966=100) 95.1

97.6

95.1

90.3

92.5

89.8

92.7

94.4

96.5

104.9 88.8

112.0 88.4

109.3 85.9

106.5 79.8

105.9 83.8

105.0 80.1

106.1 84.1

105.2 87.4

115.4 84.4

113 130

120 127

119 128

110 119

116 130

113 125

116 127

113 130

128 126

123 104

129 99

116 101

108 93

114 93

108 88

117 94

123 99

119 94

134 158 144

139 170 136

129 164 134

136 166 141

123 159 140

129 159 147

131 159 139

141 160 166

137 172 160

39 62

44 65

45 66

47 76

43 69

44 64

43 70

51 70

41 70

Expected unemployment change - next 12 months

108

112

119

120

120

118

120

129

128

Expected inflation - next 12 months Expected inflation - next 5 to 10 years

4.0 4.2

3.7 3.9

4.0 4.1

4.6 4.4

4.3 4.4

4.0 4.1

4.0 4.3

3.8 4.3

3.6 3.6

Composite of current and expected conditions Current conditions Expected conditions Personal financial situation Now compared with 12 months ago* Expected in 12 months* Expected business conditions Next 12 months* Next 5 years* Appraisal of buying conditions Cars Large household appliances* Houses Willingness to use credit Willingness to use savings

* -- Indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. (p) -- Preliminary (f) -- Final

Note: Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent reporting 'good times' (or 'better') minus the percent reporting 'bad times' (or 'worse'), plus 100. Expected change in unemployment is the fraction expecting unemployment to rise minus the fraction expecting unemployment to fall.

THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY The August Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The August 1995 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices posed questions

about changes in bank lending

standards and terms, changes in loan demand by businesses and households, the improvement

in measures of loan quality, and the

reduction in deposit insurance premiums. commercial banks and twenty-four U.S.

Fifty-nine domestic

branches and

agencies of

foreign banks participated in the survey. Credit supply conditions appear to have eased further over the past three months. banks

As in the past two surveys, small fractions of

reported having eased standards for commercial and industrial

loans to firms some terms.

of all

sizes, while large fractions

reported easing

However, standards for approving commercial real estate

loans tightened slightly.

In the household sector,

only a few banks

reported increased willingness to make consumer installment loans, and standards for approving home mortgages remained unchanged. Credit demand by businesses reportedly strengthened somewhat, and demand by households was up markedly.

On net, domestic loan

officers reported no change in demand for commercial and loans by large firms.

industrial

and middle-market firms but increased demand by small

However, many foreign respondents, whose customers are

typically large, reported an increase in demand for C&I large share of the banks indicated demand for had increased over the past three months.

loans.

A

credit by households

Demand from this sector

declined marginally on the previous two surveys. Commercial and Industrial Loans The survey found only a little change in standards for approving non merger related business

of the terms for such loans.

loans but a continued easing

Less than 10 percent of banks

-4indicated they had eased standards for commercial and industrial loans to large firms and, on net, even smaller fractions indicated they had eased standards for loans to small and middle-market borrowers.

Foreign banks reported no change in standards.

fractions reporting easing on the current survey

The

are similar to

those on the May and February surveys. Many of the domestic and foreign respondents reported they had eased their terms on business loans.

Nearly half of the domestic

respondents reported narrowing spreads over base rates for large and middle-market firms and a fifth reported easing these terms for small firms.

In addition, significant, though smaller, fractions of

the respondents reported having eased other terms, including the size of credit lines, loan covenants, and collateralization requirements. loan terms.

Foreign branches and agencies also noted having eased The latest survey results regarding terms on business

loans are similar to those reported since the end of 1993.

Banks

that reported an easing of terms or standards on business loans attributed the easing to increased competition from other banks and, to a lesser extent, from nonbank lenders. Demand for business loans was mixed across firm size over the past three months.

About equal fractions of loan officers at

domestic banks indicated increases as did decreases in demand from both large and middle-market borrowers so that, on net, the survey found no change in demand from these customers.

Between 20 and 40

percent of the respondents, on net, had been reporting increases in demand from these customers for business loans since the beginning of 1994.

On the other hand, about a quarter of the banks reported

increased demand from small customers, a larger fraction than the past two surveys.

In contrast to the domestic banks'

characterization of demand from large borrowers, two fifths of the

-5foreign respondents, whose customers are typically large, Both respondents that

experienced increased demand. increases in demand and

reported

respondents that reported decreases in

demand attributed them to changes in customers' inventory financing needs, investment in plant and

equipment, and merger or acquisition

financing. Commercial Real Estate Loans Domestic

respondents reported a slight tightening of standards

for commercial real

estate loans, while foreign respondents

indicated no change in their standards fractions, on net,

for these loans.

Small

of domestic banks indicated that standards for

approving loans to finance commercial offices and loans for other nonfarm, nonresidential structures had tightened.

Standards for

approving construction and land development loans and loans to finance industrial structures appear to have remained about unchanged.

The survey has

found little change in the standards for

commercial real estate loans

since the tightening found in 1990-91.

Large fractions of both the domestic and foreign loan officers indicated that demand for commercial

real estate loans had increased

over the past three months. Lending to Households Only four

of the respondents indicated that they are more

willing now to make consumer installment loans than they were three months ago--less than half as many as in the May survey and the smallest number indicating increased willingness since August Similarly, banks reported no change, on net,

1991.

in their standards for

residential mortgages. Demand for sharply over the

loans to individuals, however, appears to be up past three months.

A quarter of the

respondents

reported an increase in demand for consumer installment loans, and

-6over half reported an increase in demand for residential mortgages. Banks had indicated a decline in demand for both of these loan categories in the past two surveys. Loan Quality Special questions on the August survey asked about the substantial improvement in recent years in measures of loan quality, including delinquency rates, charge-off rates and provisioning for loan and lease losses.

Domestic and foreign respondents answered

that the robust health of the U.S. economy, tight lending standards, and the low level of interest rates during much of the current expansion have been important contributors to the improvement in loan quality at their banks.

Banks described efforts by households

and firms to improve their balance sheets as a less important factor and the shift toward new

(unseasoned) loans because of recent rapid

loan growth as not an important factor in the improvement.

Perhaps

because loan quality is, on average, better at domestic than at foreign respondents, the two groups differed on its likely future. Two-fifths of the domestic respondents believed measures of loan quality would worsen at their bank over the coming year while onefifth believed the measures would improve.

In contrast, three-

fifths of the foreign respondents predicted measures would improve at their bank and less than 10 percent felt they would worsen.

Loan

officers that predicted a worsening of these measures did so because of a negative economic outlook and, to a lesser extent, because of the increased willingness of households and firms to take on debt. Those that predicted an improvement in the measures, however, pointed to a positive outlook for the economy and, at the branches and agencies, to continued tight lending standards.

Finally,

domestic banks placed about equal weight on surprisingly low current

-7and on low expected future loan losses as reasons for the low level of provisioning for such losses. Deposit Insurance Premiums An additional special question on the survey asked banks in which of their margins will lower deposit insurance premiums likely be reflected.

The responses suggest banks will take the largest

share of the reduction as increased profits, followed by increased rates paid on deposits, with the smallest share going toward lower loan rates.

SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (Percent except as noted)

1994

1995

Instrrument Feb 3

High

I Change to Aug 17, 1995:

FOMC, Jul 5

Aug 17

From 1994 Feb 3

From 1994 high

From FOMC. Jul 5

SHORT-TERM RATES 2 Federal funds

3.07

5-66

6.08

5 72

2.65

0.06

-0.36

Treasury bills 3-month 6-month 1-year

3 13 3.27 3.52

5.78 6.38 6.84

5.51 5.44 5.31

5 44 5 48 5.55

2.31 2.21 2.03

-0 34 -0.90 -1.29

-0.07 0.04 0.24

Commercial paper 1-month 3-month

3.16 3.25

6.13 6 32

6.06 5.91

5.87 5.85

2.71 2.60

-0.26 -0.47

-0.19 -0.06

3.11 3 25 3.41

6.10 6.39 6.89

5 97 5 88 5 82

5.80 5 80 5 81

2.69 2.55 2.40

-0.30 -0.59 -1.08

-0.17 -0.08 -0.01

3,06 3.25

6.06 6.38

5 97 5 88

5 78 5 81

2.72 2 56

-0.28

-0 19

-0.57

-0

6.00

8.50

9.00

9 00

3 00

0 50

0.00

4 60 5.81 6 31

7.82 B.04 8.16

5.84 6.19 6.61

6.24 6.57 6.90

1 64 0 76 0.59

-1 58 1.47 1.26

0.40 0.38 0.29

5 49

7.37

6 28

6.44

0.95

-0.93

0.16

7.35

9.05

7.83

7 91

0.56

-1.14

0.08

6.97 4.12

9.25 6.79

7 53 5.84

7.80 5 91

0.83 1.79

-1.45 -0.88

0 27 0.07

Large negotiable CDs 1-month 3-month 6-month 4 Eurodollar deposits 1-month 3-month Bank prime rate INTERMEDIATE

07

AND LONG TERM RATES

U.S Treasury (constant maturity) 3-year 10-year 30-year 5 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) Corporate--A utility, recently offered 6 Home mortgages FHLMC 30-yr. fixed rate FHLMC 1-yr. adjustable rate

1989 Record

Stock exchange index Level Dow-Jones Industrial NYSE Composite NASDAQ (OTC) Wilshire

4736.29 302.13 1029.24 5579.87

1995

Percentage change to Aug 17:

high_____

Date

Low, Jan. 3

7/17/95 2144.64 8/03/95 154.00 8/17/95 378.56 8/03/95 2718.59

1 One-day quotes except as noted. 2 Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for maintenance period ending August 16, 1995 3 Secondary market.

FOMC, Jul 5 4615 23 293.21 941.82 5375.49

From

From

Aug 17

record high

1989 low

4630.63 299.63 1029.24 5570.48

-2.23 -0.83 0.00 0.17

115.92 94.56 171.88 104.90

4. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5 Most recent observation based on one-day Thursday quote and futures market index changes 6. Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown.

From FOMC. Jul 5 0.33 2.19 9.28 3 63

-9-

Commercial Bank Credit and Short- and Intermediate-Term Business Credit (Percentage change; seasonally adjusted annual rate) 1 Level,

Type of credit

S1995

1994

Q1

1995

1995

1995

1995

Jul

Q2

May

Jun

Jul

1995 (billions of $)

Commercial bank credit

1. Total loans and securities

6.8

7.8

13.3

9.0

4.9

3.7

3,507.0

2.

4.9

-4.9

17.4

-4.3

-.7

-13.8

969.8

0.0

-6.0

-4.7

4.6

-1.7

-12.9

698.9

24.0

-1.6

87.0

-26.5

1.8

-16.6

270.8

7.5

12.9

11.7

14.1

7.2

10.5

2,537.2

Securities

3.

U.S. government

4.

Other

5.

Loans

6.

Business

9.2

16.8

12.1

14.1

4.4

6.6

694.1

7.

Real estate

6.5

11.9

7.5

4.9

8.4

11.1

1,057.2

8.

Consumer

15.2

12.7

11.6

4.6

13.2

8.3

481.5

9.

Security

-17.2

-9.1

71.0

185.5

11.4

-28.2

83.2

3.5

13.2

12.2

21.0

-3.9

40.4

221.2

10.

Other

Short- and intermediate-term business credit 11. Business loans net of bankers acceptances

9.4

17.8

12.5

15.7

3.3

6.1

686.8

12. Loans at foreign branches 2

5.1

17.6

21.9

14.6

9.6

14.3

25.5

13. Sum of lines 11 and 12

9.2

17.7

12.8

15.7

3.6

6.4

712.3

14. Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms

1.2

22.1

20.7

20.8

-29.1

27.8

181.3

15. Sum of lines 13 and 14

7.5

18.6

14.4

16.7

-3.0

10.6

893.6

16. Bankers acceptances, U.S. traderelated 3 4,

-8.3

-21.2

-4.5

-26.7

-13.6

n.a.

17.4

17. Loans at finance companies 4

12.6

20.3

14.6

12.4

10.7

n.a.

8.7

18.5

14.2

14.8

.8

n.a.

385.85 5

18. Total (sum of lines 15, 16, and 17)

1,289.0

1. Except as noted, levels are averages of Wednesday data and percentage changes are based on averages of Wednesday data. For years, "percentage change" is percentage change in quarterly average from fourth quarter of preceding year to fourth quarter of specified year. For quarters, it is the percentage change in quarterly average from preceding quarter to specified quarter, annualized. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassification. 2. Loans to U.S. firms made by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. 4. Levels and changes are based on averages of month-end data. 5. June 1995. n.a. Not available.

5

THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S.

International Trade in Goods

and Services

In June, the deficit in trade in goods and

services widened

slightly from what was recorded in May as exports

declined

A sharp drop in exports of

marginally more than imports decreased.

automotive products was only partly offset by increased exports of industrial

capital goods.

supplies and

The small decline in imports

was spread among most major trade categories;

the exception was

imported machinery, which rose moderately. In the second quarter, the deficit was substantially larger than in the first quarter.

The value of exports was about

2-1/2 percent higher than in the first quarter;

The sharpest increases were recorded for

rise was in quantity. capital goods

about half of the

(almost all quantity) and industrial

supplies

(about

Partly offsetting these increases were declines in

half quantity).

exported automotive products to Canada and Mexico parts) and in agricultural products

(both vehicles

and

(particularly the quantity of

wheat and cotton). The value of imports in the second quarter was 4 percent higher than in the first quarter with increases trade categories,

especially oil

spread across most major

(largely price),

automotive products from Europe and Japan. products from Canada declined

11 percent

capital goods, and

Imported automotive

part because of sluggish sales in the United States. imported foods

in

(primarily vehicles),

The decline in

(about half of the decrease was coffee) nearly

reversed the run-up in value recorded in the first quarter. non-oil imports other than computers, the quarter was about

quantity in the

second

2 percent higher than in the first quarter;

was about the same rate

For

this

of increase as in the first quarter and

slower than in any quarter of last year.

-11August 17, 1995 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (in billions of dollars, seasonaLLy adjusted)

NIPA Real Net Exports 0 & S */ (1)

-------------------Balance

----------- Fro I

the Monthly Press Release 1/------------------------Exports I Imports

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------G & S Nerch. Services G & S Merch. Services (2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

|

G& S

Merch.

Services

(9)

(10)

(8)

Years

-32.4 -74.0 -110.0

-39.5 -74.8 -106.2

-96.1 -132.6 -166.1

56.6 57.8 59.9

619.0 644.6 701.2

440.4 456.8 502.5

178.6 187.8 198.7

658.4 719.4 807.4

536.5 589.4 668.6

122.0 130.0 138.8

1994 Qtr 1 2 3 4

-104.0 -111.8 -117.0 -107.1

-92.1 -107.7 -115.2 -109.9

-146.0 -166.0 -178.5 -174.0

53.9 58.3 63.3 64.1

664.9 687.3 713.1 739.5

473.8 490.9 509.5 535.7

191.1 196.4 203.6 203.8

757.0 795.0 828.3 849.4

619.7 656.9 688.1 709.7

137.2 138.1 140.3 139.7

1995 Qtr 1 2

-118.5 -125.0

-120.1 -135.1

-180.2 -196.4

60.1 61.2

755.6 774.9

1992

1993 1994

Quarters (AR):

-----

552.2 570.0 -----

--- --

203.4 204.9 -----

-----

875.7 910.0 -----

---- -

732.4 766.3 -----

143.2 143.7 -----

----

Monthly Rates: 1993 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1994 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Dec 1995 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

-4.0 -3.3 -6.3 -6.4 -4.9 -7.6 -7.5 -6.6 -7.9 -8.0 -7.7 -4.8

-8.9 -8.7 -11.3 -11.3 -9.8 -12.5 -12.5 -11.6 -12.5 -12.6 -11.5 -9.4

37.0 36.4 38.5 38.0 38.8 37.3 36.5 37.2 37.9 39.3 39.2 40.7

56.2 55.4 60.4 60.2 59.2 60.5 59.8 59.6 61.2 63.3 62.1 61.5

45.9 45.1 49.8 49.3 48.7 49.7 49.0 48.8 50.4 51.9 50.8 50.1

10.3 10.3 10.6 10.8 10.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.4 11.4 11.4

-6.9 -9.6 -6.5 -8.9 -9.1 -8.9 -10.8 -9.4 -8.7 -9.8 -9.7 -7.9

-11.3 -13.6 -11.5 -13.4 -14.1 -14.0 -15.8 -14.2 -14.6 -14.9 -15.3 -13.3

38.9 37.4 42.1 40.4 40.4 41.9 40.4 43.7 43.3 43.3 44.4 46.2

61.3 62.6 65.3 65.2 66.0 67.6 67.8 69.7 69.6 71.4 71.1

50.3 51.1 53.6 53.8 54.5 55.9 56.3 57.9 57.8 58.2 59.7 59.4

11.0 11.6 11.7 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.6 11.7 11.6

-10.6 -9.6 -9.8 -11.4 -11.0 -11.3

-15.9 -14.4 -14.7 -16.5 -16.1 -16.4

44.8 45.5 47.8 46.9 48.2 47.4

72.6 71.7 74.6 75.4 76.3 75.8

60.7 59.9 62.5 63.5 64.3 63.8

11.9 11.8 12.1 11.9 12.0 12.0

69.8

1/ U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis, BOP valuation. */ In billions of 1987 dollars. Note: Details may not add to totals because of rounding.

August 17, 1995 U.S. TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES: SUMMARY DETAILS (Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted)

1995 Feb

1995 Mar

-9,611

-9,793 -11,422 -11,049 -11,312

-26,924 -28,812 -27,470 -30,020 -33,783

62,093 16,611 4,662 296 40,523

64,820 17,015 4,828 845 42,132

63,994 17,048 4,692 563 41,691

65,238 17,084 4,467 650 43,036

64,481 17,091 4,291 721 42,378

171,823 178,272 184,876 188,902 193,713 49,095 50,889 50,948 50,843 51,223 10,877 11,666 13,556 14,023 13,450 1,433 1,156 857 1,406 1,934 110,418 114,561 119,515 122,630 127,106

Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Building Materials other Ind Supplies

10,365 1,048 3,457 788 5,071

10,711 1,155 3,565 745 5,246

10,779 1,189 3,523 817 5,249

10,906 1,148 3,588 731 5,439

11,263 1,085 3,881 817 5,479

25,663 2,827 8,552 2,116 12,169

27,779 3,137 9,095 2,283 13,263

29,181 3,309 9,613 2,314 13,945

31,395 3,337 10,409 2,292 15,357

32,948 3,422 10,992 2,366 16,168

Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods

17,828 2,272 3,052 2,410 10,096

19,183 2,529 3,055 2,705 10,893

18,789 2,676 2,992 2,536 10,585

19,360 2,521 3,105 2,739 10,996

19,520 2,585 3,172 2,889 10,873

50,953 8,475 8,007 5,980 28,490

51,697 7,119 8,506 6,406 29,666

53,711 7,343 8,949 6,919 30,500

54,128 6,295 9,084 7,499 31,250

57,669 7,782 9,269 8,164 32,453

Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World

5,222 3,014 487 1,722

4,980 2,684 473 1,823

4,955 2,725 395 1,836

4,973 2,670 463 1,841

4,424 2,436 426 1,562

14,096 7,774 2,100 4,223

14,498 7,894 1,900 4,704

15,426 8,726 2,132 4,568

15,536 8,944 1,495 5,097

14,353 7,831 1,284 5,238

Consumer Goods All Other Merchandise

5,301 1,808

5,354 1,904

5,272 1,896

5,475 2,322

5,395 1,775

14,808 4,898

15,241 5,346

15,917 5,279

15,770 5,801

16,143 5,993

71,704 11,795 4,336 144 55,429

74,613 12,129 4,622 807 57,055

75,416 11,923 4,457 797 58,239

76,287 12,004 5,033 1,033 58,217

75,793 11,988 5,085 869 57,850

9,934 2,051 1,090 1,078 5,715

10,545 2,130 1,174 988 6,253

10,869 2,181 1,297 1,100 6,291

10,651 2,248 1,100 1,044 6,258

10,364 2,117 1,107 984 6,156

26,510 5,139 3,192 3,118 15,060

27,685 5,476 3,373 3,205 15,631

29,267 5,804 3,463 3,271 16,729

30,698 6,337 3,435 3,163 17,763

31,884 6,546 3,505 3,128 18,705

Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods

16,852 826 4,163 2,588 9,275

17,557 1,028 4,274 2,723 9,533

17,979 951 4,322 2,863 9,843

18,107 932 4,329 3,125 9,722

18,733 929 4,583 3,316 9,905

44,860 3,060 11,100 6,064 24,636

47,036 2,443 11,901 6,792 25,900

49,967 2,957 12,664 7,555 26,791

51,461 2,633 12,704 7,992 28,131

54,819 2,811 13,234 9,303 29,470

Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World

10,806 4,032 1,423 5,352

10,675 3,883 1,609 5,182

11,034 3,572 1,385 6,077

10,724 3,697 1,504 5,524

10,370 3,425 1,508 5,436

29,001 10,184 3,553 15,263

30,640 11,151 3,474 16,014

31,776 32,459 11,872 12,074 4,284 4,438 15,620 15,946

32,128 10,695 4,397 17,037

Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages All Other Merchandise

13,135 2,782 1,920

13,320 2,901 2,058

13,591 2,736 2,030

13,769 2,691 2,274

13,402 2,750 2,232

36,119 7,623 6,066

37,038 8,008 5,749

38,551 7,985 6,424

39,783 8,524 6,006

40,762 8,177 6,536

4,601 9.333 15.90

4,202 8.314 16.85

4,930 9.020 17.63

4,834 9.406 17.13

12,371 9.459 14.38

14,788 10.111 15.90

12,376 8.918 15.09

12,321 8.736 15.66

13,966 8.913 17.22

TRADE BALANCE (G&S)

1995 Apr

1995 May

1995 Jun

1994 Qtr-2

1994 Qtr-3

1994 Qtr-4

1995 Qtr-1

1995 Qtr-2

..................................................................................................................

EXPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold

..................................................................................................................

IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Petroleum Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold Ind Supplies (Ex Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies

198,747 207,084 212,346 218,922 227,496 34,526 35,071 34,928 35,811 35,915 12,874 15,151 12,784 13,082 14,575 1,169 706 665 1,099 2,699 150,178 156,156 163,969 168,931 174,306

..................................................................................................................

Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price ($/bbl) ----------.

3,782 8.567 15.77

. ..-. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -

-13August 17, 1995 U.S. TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- DOLLAR CHANGES (Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted)

Amount Change from Prev. Month Mar Apr May Jun - - ------- - - --- - - - -

EXPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Building Materials Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World Consumer Goods All Other Merchandise

-- --- --

Amount Change from Prev. Qtr. Qtr-3 Qtr-4 Qtr-1 Qtr-2 - - - - - -.--

- -.-.--

- - - -.--

- - - -.-

$ Change from Year Earlier 02-02 -

.

- - --- .--

2,727 404 166 549 1,609

-826 33 -136 -282 -441

1,244 36 -224 87 1,345

-757 7 -177 71 -658

6,449 1,794 788 -277 4,144

6,604 59 1,891 -299 4,953

4,026 -105 466 549 3,116

4,811 380 -572 528 4,475

21,890 2,128 2,573 501 16,688

346 107 108 -43 175

68 34 -42 73 3

127 -41 65 -86 189

357 -62 293 85 41

2,116 310 543 167 1,095

1,403 172 518 31 682

2,213 28 795 -22 1,412

1,553 86 583 73 811

7,285 596 2,440 250 3,986

1,354 258 3 296 797

-394 146 -62 -169 -309

572 -155 113 202 411

160 64 67 151 -122

745 -1,356 499 427 1,175

2,014 223 443 513 834

417 -1,048 135 580 750

3,541 1,487 185 665 1,203

6,717 -693 1,262 2,185 3,963

-242 -330 -14 101

-24 41 -78 13

17 -55 68 5

-548 -233 -36 -279

402 121 -199 481

928 832 231 -136

110 218 -637 529

-1,184 -1,114 -211 141

257 -816 1,015

53 97

-82 -9

203 426

-80 -546

433 448

676 -67

-147 522

373 192

1,335 1,095

57

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -. -

.- .--- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Petroleum Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold

2,909 334 285 663 1,627

803 -206 -165 -10 1,184

871 81 577 236 -22

-494 -16 52 -163 -367

8,337 545 2,276 -463 5,978

5,262 -143 -2,367 -41 7,813

6,576 883 298 434 4,961

8,574 104 1,494 1,601 5,376

28,749 1,389 1,701 1,531 24,128

Ind Supplies (Ex Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies

611 78 84 -90 538

325 52 123 112 38

-218 67 -197 -56 -32

-288 -132 8 -61 -103

1,175 337 181 87 571

1,581 328 90 67 1,097

1,431 533 -27 -109 1,034

1,186 210 69 -35 942

5,374 1,407 312 10 3,645

Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods

706 202 111 135 258

421 -77 48 140 311

128 -19 7 262 -122

627 -3 255 191 184

2,176 -616 800 728 1,264

2,931 514 764 763 891

1,494 -324 40 438 1,340

3,358 178 529 1,311 1,339

9,958 -248 2,133 3,240 4,834

-132 -149 187 -169

359 -311 -224 895

-310 125 118 -553

-354 -272 5 -88

1,639 967 -79 751

1,136 720 810 -394

683 203 154 326

-330 -1,380 -41 1,090

3,128 510 844 1,773

186 119 137

271 -165 -27

178 -45 244

-367 58 -43

919 385 -317

1,512 -23 675

1,233 538 -418

979 -346 529

4,643 554 470

819 0.767 0.14

-399 -1.019 0.95

727 0.706 0.78

-95 0.386 -0.50

2,417 0.653 1.52

-2,412 -1.194 -0.81

-55 -0.181 0.57

1,645 0.177 1.56

1,595 -0.545 2.84

Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages ALl Other Merchandise Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price ($/bbl)

-14August 17, 1995 U.S. TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES: SUMMARY OF MONTHS AND QUARTERS -- PERCENT CHANGES (Percent change from previous period)

Percent Change from Prev. Month Mar Apr May Jun

Percent Change from Prev. Qtr. Qtr-3 Qtr-4 Qtr-1 Qtr-2

% Change from Year Earlier Q2-02

............................--

0.2 -4.8 15.5 3.2

-1.2 0.0 -4.0 10.9 -1.5

3.8 3.7 7.2 -19.3 3.8

Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Building Materials Other Ind Supplies

0.6 2.9 -1.2 9.8 0.1

1.2 -3.5 1.9 -10.5 3.6

3.3 -5.4 8.2 11.7 0.7

8.2 11.0 6.4 7.9 9.0

Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods

-2.1 5.8 -2.0 -6.2 -2.8

3.0 -5.8 3.8 8.0 3.9

0.8 2.6 2.2 5.5 -1.1

1.5 -16.0 6.2 7.1 4.1

-0.5 1.5 -16.5 0.7

0.4 -2.0 17.2 0.3

-11.0 -8.7 -7.8 -15.2

-1.5 -0.5

3.8 22.5

-1.5 -23.5

Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World Consumer Goods All Other Merchandise

4.4 2.4 3.6 185.2 4.0

1.9

-1.3 0.2 -2.8 -33.3 -1.0

EXPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold

-4.6 -10.9 -2.9 5.9 1.0 5.4

3.7 0.1 16.2 -25.8 4.3

2.2 -0.2 3.4 64.0 2.6

2.5 0.7 -4.1 37.6 3.6

12.7 4.3 23.7 35.0 15.1

5.0 5.5 5.7 1.4 5.1

7.6 0.8 8.3 -0.9 10.1

4.9 2.6 5.6 3.2 5.3

28.4 21.1 28.5 11.8 32.9

3.9 3.1 5.2 8.0 2.8

0.8 -14.3 1.5 8.4 2.5

6.5 23.6 2.0 8.9 3.9

13.2 -8.2 15.8 36.5 13.9

2.9 1.6 -9.5 11.4

6.4 10.5 12.2 -2.9

0.7 2.5 -29.9 11.6

-7.6 -12.5 -14.1 2.8

1.8 0.7 -38.9 24.0

2.9 9.1

4.4 -1.3

-0.9 9.9

2.4 3.3

9.0 22.4

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -. -

.- .-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Petroleum Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold

4.1 2.8 6.6 460.4 2.9

1.2 0.7 12.9 29.6 -0.0

Ind Supplies (Ex Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies

6.1 3.8 7.7 -8.4 9.4

-2.0 3.1 -15.2 -5.0 -0.5

Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods

4.2 24.4 2.7 5.2 2.8

0.7 -2.0 0.2 9.2 -1.2

Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World

-1.2 -3.7 13.1 -3.2

Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages All Other Merchandise Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price ($/bbl)

21.7 8.9 0.9

-0.6 -0.1 1.0 -15.8 -0.6

4.2 1.6 17.7 -39.6 4.0

-2.7 -5.9 0.7 -5.8 -1.6

4.4 6.5 5.7 2.8 3.8

3.5 5.9 6.1 1.9

4.9 -20.1 7.2 12.0 5.1

-0.3

3.9 0.3 11.4 145.7 3.2

14.5 4.0 13.2 131.0 16.1

2.5 -0.4 -15.6 -5.8 5.0

3.1 2.5 2.3 65.2 3.0

5.7

4.9 9.2 -0.8 -3.3 6.2

3.9 3.3 2.0 -1.1 5.3

20.3 27.4 9.8 0.3 24.2

3.0 -11.0 0.3 5.8 5.0

6.5 6.8 4.2 16.4 4.8

22.2 -8.1 19.2 53.4 19.6 10.8 5.0 23.8 11.6

6.0 2.7 2.1 7.0 6.2 21.0 6.4 11.2 3.4

3.4 -8.0 -13.9 17.3

-2.8 3.5 8.6 -9.1

-3.3 -7.3 0.3 -1.6

5.7 9.5 -2.2 4.9

3.7 6.5 23.3 -2.5

2.1 1.7 3.6 2.1

-1.0 -11.4 -0.9 6.8

2.0 -5.7 -1.3

1.3 -1.6 12.0

-2.7 2.2 -1.9

2.5 5.1 -5.2

4.1 -0.3 11.7

3.2 6.7 -6.5

2.5 -4.1 8.8

12.9 7.3 7.8

-8.7 -10.9 5.9

17.3 8.5 4.6

-1.9 4.3 -2.8

19.5 6.9 10.6

-16.3 -11.8 -5.1

-0.4 -2.0 3.8

13.4 2.0 9.9

12.9 -5.8 19.7

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -.- . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -.I . .- .-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -