Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

1

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC

March 21

SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

1997

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Table Selected financial market quotations

.

..

THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY U.S. international trade in goods and services Prices of exports and imports . . . . . . ...

. . ..

. .

2 3

Tables . Summary .. Trade in goods and services: Details of goods and services: . . . . . .. . . . Levels . . . . . ...... Dollar changes....... . . . . . . . . ... Percent changes . Prices of merchandise exports and imports.

.

4

. . . .. . .

5 6 7

Selected Financial Market Quotations' (Percent except as noted) 1996 Instrument

1997

Feb.

July

FOMC,*

low

high

Feb. 5

5.15

5.39

4.76 4.67 4.55

Change to Mar. 20, from: Feb.

July

FOMC,*

low

high

Feb. 5

5.33

0.12

-0.12

-0.06

5.21 5.40 5.64

4.97 5.08 5.25

0.44 0.65 0.95

-0.01 -0.08 -0.14

0.23 0.24 0.25

5.27 5.12

5.50 5.59

5.43 5.44

0.24 0.45

0.01 -0.02

0.08 0.13

5.21 5.12 4.99

5.44 5.59 5.83

5.32 5.40 5.50

0.22 0.43 0.72

-0.01 -0.04 -0.12

0.11 0.15 0.21

5.13 5.13

5.38 5.56

5.31 5.41

0.25 0.37

0.00 -0.06

0.07 0.09

8.25

8.25

8.25

0.00

0.00

0.00

4.98 5.58 6.02

6.62 7.06 7.19

6.02 6.45 6.72

1.47 1.17 0.95

-0.17 -0.31 -0.22

0.43 0.30 0.25

U.S. Treasury indexed bond

n.a.

n.a.

3.33

n.a.

n.a.

0.16

Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer)5

5.67

6.24

6.02

0.39

-0.18

0.04

Corporate-A utility, recently offered

7.18

8.23

7.92

0.93

-0.12

0.19

High-yield corporate 6

9.57

10.36

9.71

0.07

-0.72

-0.07

6.94 5.19

8.42 6.01

7.88 5.55

1.00 0.42

-0.48 -0.40

0.06 0.06

Mar. 20

Short-term rates Federal funds' Treasury bills 3 3-month 6-month 1-year Commercial paper 1-month 3-month Large negotiable CDs3 1-month 3-month 6-month Eurodollar deposits 4 1-month 3-month Bank prime rate Intermediate- and Long-term Rates U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 3-year 10-year 30-year

Home mortgages' FHLMC 30-yr fixed rate FIILMC 1-yr adjustable rate Record high

1996

1997

July

FOMC,*

Percentage change to Mar. 20, from: Record

July

FOMC,*

Level

Date

low

Feb. 5

Mar. 20

high

low

Feb. 5

Dow-Jones Industrial

7085.16

3/11/97

5346.55

6833.48

6820.28

-3.74

27.56

-0.19

S&P 500 Composite

816.29

2/18/97

626.65

789.26

782.65

-4.12

24.89

-0.84

1388.06

1/22/97

1042.37

1373.75

1259.26

-9.28

20.81

-8.33

370.65

1/22/97

307.78

368.32

352.31

-0.68

19.61

-4.35

Stock exchange index

NASDAQ (OTC) Russell 2000

7453.85 -4.35 22.21 -1.83 7792.57 2/18/97 6099.34 7592.64 Wilshire 1. One-day quotes except as noted. 2. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is the average to date for maintenance period ending March 26, 1997. 3. Secondary market. 4. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5. Most recent observation based on one-day Thursday quote and futures market index changes. 6. Merrill Lynch Master II high-yield bond index composite. 7. Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown. * Figures cited are as of the close on February 4. -1-

-2-

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

U.S.

International Trade in Goods and Services In January, the U.S.

widened

from the

deficit

in trade in goods

and

services

levels recorded in December and in the fourth

quarter as a whole;

exports declined slightly and

imports rose

sharply. The decrease in exports in January was led by a drop aircraft deliveries that

in

is expected to be temporary and some

declines in exports of both agricultural products (other than computers and semiconductors).

small

and machinery

Exports of computers

moved up after a dip in December, and exports

of semiconductors

turned up after showing little change in the previous two months. Automotive exports to Canada picked up a make-up of

shipments delayed during the CAW and UAW strikes

against GM last fall. and

strongly, reflecting in part

services

Despite the decline in total exports

in January, the level was

only 1-1/2 percent

of goods

less than

the very strong fourth-quarter average, with goods 2 percent and

services The

1 percent higher.

sharp rise in imports in January was

from strike-reduced

automotive exports. January for oil

largely a rebound

levels in automotive shipments

strikes against GM had a greater effect

from Canada.

The

on automotive imports than

Increases in imports were also recorded

in

(primarily an increase in quantity) and computers.

The value of imported

computers

(including accessories and

soared to a level in January that was quarter average.

8 percent above

However, imports of consumer goods

posted small declines.

Total imports of goods and

January were 3-1/2 percent above the fourth-quarter goods 4 percent higher and services The January trade deficit was expected, with almost all estimate implicit computers.

lower

parts)

its fourthand

foods

services in average, with

1 percent higher. slightly larger than we

of the surprise

in the March Greenbook)

The increase in computer

(compared with the in machinery especially

imports in January

(including

accessories and parts) was much stronger than anticipated;

computer

exports were only slightly higher than anticipated in the Greenbook. Exports

of other machinery in January were somewhat

lower than

anticipated.

After incorporating the data for January and

updating

our estimates

for trade in February and March, we now believe that

the contribution of net exports to GDP growth in the current quarter

could be somewhat more negative than in the Greenbook, perhaps $3 to 4 billion

(annual rate) in real terms.

However, more than half of

the negative adjustment to net exports would be offset by higher domestic purchases of capital goods, leaving a negative adjustment to the rate of real GDP growth presented in the Greenbook for the current quarter of one-tenth of a percentage point at most.

Prices of Exports and

Imports

In February, prices of U.S. non-oil imports increased slightly after posting a moderate decrease in January.

Most of the increase

was attributable to higher prices for foods (especially coffee). Smaller rises were recorded for imported industrial supplies fourth consecutive month of increase) and consumer goods.

(the

For

January-February combined, prices of non-oil imports declined 1-1/4 percent at an annual rate. The price of imported oil dropped significantly in February as deliveries of oil from Iraq and mild weather put downward pressure on prices.

For January-February combined, the price of imported oil

dropped 5 percent at an annual rate. Prices of exports rose slightly in February, primarily because of a jump in prices of agricultural products soybeans).

(primarily corn and

The increase in prices of agricultural exports was the

largest since last May and followed a half-year of generally falling prices.

Despite the increase in January, for January-February

combined, agricultural export prices declined 1 percent at an annual rate.

Prices of nonagricultural exports decreased marginally in

February following two months of small increases.

For January-

February combined, prices of nonagricultural exports rose 1/2 percent at an annual rate, the same rate of increase recorded in the fourth quarter.

B.I.a.

TABLE 1

March 20, 1997

Trade in Goods and Services: Summary (in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From the Monthly Press Release 1/---------------.NIPA Real Balance Exports Imports Net Exports ------------------------------------- ------ ------.. G & S */ G&S Merch. Serv. G&S Merch. Serv. G&S Merch. Serv. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) Years -105.7 -107.5 -114.0

1994 1995 1996 Quarters

-104.4 -166.1 -173.4 -105.1 -114.3 -187.8

61.7 68.4 73.5

698.3 786.5 835.4

502.5 575.9 611.5

195.8 210.6 223.9

802.7 891.6 949,7

668.6 749.4 799.3

134.1 142.2 150.4

(AR):

1995 Qtr 1 2 3 4

-122.5 -121.4 -101.6 -84.9

-118.1 -127.3 -97.3 -77.6

-179.7 -191.7 -170.2 -152.1

61.6 64.4 72.8 74.5

755.9 778.9 796.8 814.5

554.2 571.9 579.9 597.7

201.7 206.9 216.9 216.8

874.0 906.2 894.2 892.0

733.9 763.6 750.1 749.8

140.1 142.5 144.1 142.2

1996 Qtr 1 2 3 4

-104.0 -114.7 -137.4 -100.0

-98.4 -115.8 -136.8 -106.1

-172.4 -189.5 -207.2 -181.9

74.0 73.7 70.4 75.9

820.5 835.9 823.1 862.1

600.2 612.5 600.9 632.5

220.3 223.4 222.3 229.7

918.9 951.7 960.0 968.2

772.6 802.0 808.1 814.4

146.3 149.8 151.9 153.8

1995 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-10.7 -9.5 -9.3 -10.7 -10.5 -10.6 -10.1 -7.4 -6.9 -6.9 -6.1 -6.4

-16.0 -14.4 -14.5 -16.1 -16.0 -15.9 -15.9 -13.4 -13.2 -13.1 -12.3 -12.6

5.4 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.2 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2

61.9 62.0 65.1 64.3 65.5 64.9 64.3 66.8 68.0 67.5 68.0 68.1

44.9 45.6 48.0 47.2 48.1 47.8 46.6 48.7 49.7 49.5 49.8 50.1

16.9 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.2 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.0 18.2 18.0

72.5 71.6 74.4 75.1 75.9 75.5 74.4 74.2 74.9 74.4

61.0 59.9 62.6 63.2 64.1 63.6 62.5

11.6 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.9

62.1

12.1 12.0 11.8

1996 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-9.7 -6.9 -8.0 -9.7 -10.8 -8.5 -12.0 -10.6 -11.6 -8.1 -8.0 -10.5

-15.6 -12.9 -14.6 -15.7 -16.9 -14.7 -17.6 -16.5 -17.6 -14.2 -14.4 -16.9

5.9 6.0 6.6 6.1 6.1 6.2 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.4

66.6 69.2 69.3 69.1 70.1 69.7 67.3

17.9 18.3 18.8 18.4 18.7 18.7 18.5 18.6 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.3

76.3 76.1 77.3 78.8 80.9 78.2 79.2 80.3 80.4 79.8 80.5 81.7

64.3 63 .8 65.1 66.5 68.3

68.8 71.8 72.6 71.2

48.7 50.9 50.5 50.7 51.4 51,0 48.8 51.1 50.3 52.9 53.3 51.9

66.4 67.7 68.0 67.1 67.7 68.8

12.0 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.6 12.5 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9

1997 Jan

-12.7

-19.0

6.3

70.8

51.5

19.3

83.5

70.5

13.0

Monthly Rates:

69.7

74.1

74.5

|

62.9 62.6 62.1 62.7

65.7

1/ U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis, BOP valuation. */ In billions of chained (1992) dollars. Note: Details may not add to totals because of rounding.

12.0 11.8

B.1.b.

March 20, 1997 TABLE 2 DETAILS OF GOODS AND SERVICES: LEVELS (Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted)

1996 Sep

1996 Oct

1996 Nov

-8,066

-7,968 -10,489 -12,707

-19,391 -24,607 -28,960 -34,208 -26,523

68,816 18,499 4,842 377 45,099

71,758 18,865 4,963 368 47,562

72,566 19,264 5,525 263 47,513

71,210 19,286 4,946 296 46,682

70,777 19,303 4,836 228 46,410

203,616 205,130 208,976 205,783 215,534 54,194 55,077 55,855 55,568 57,415 15,169 15,865 15,109 15,033 15,434 937 1,577 3,127 1,308 927 133,317 132,611 134,885 133,874 141,758

Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Building Materials Other Ind Supplies

10,921 1,387 3,492 834 5,208

11,552 1,626 3,580 872 5,474

11,039 1,303 3,464 821 5,452

11,295 1,458 3,743 799 5,296

11,154 1,353 3,589 798 5,415

32,641 3,717 10,729 2,218 15,977

32,257 3,762 10,635 2,220 15,639

32,356 32,207 3,456 3,755 10,716 10,291 2,200 2,333 15,984 15,827

33,887 4,387 10,787 2,491 16,222

Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods

20,068 1,983 3,578 2,845 11,661

22,400 3,080 3,665 3,070 12,586

22,308 2,807 3,701 3,100 12,701

22,033 3,285 3,460 3,045 12,243

21,497 2,442 3,835 3,254 11,966

62,183 6,272 10,872 9,416 35,623

61,946 6,625 11,345 9,373 34,602

62,895 8,339 10,795 8,727 35,034

61,058 6,683 10,734 8,421 35,221

66,742 9,172 10,826 9,215 37,529

Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World

6,089 3,301 791 1,997

5,232 2,508 877 1,847

5,779 3,088 793 1,898

5,289 2,748 981 1,560

5,735 3,217 781 1,736

15,496 8,553 1,760 5,184

15,477 8,288 1,898 5,291

15,739 8,651 1,979 5,109

16,701 9,073 1,973 5,655

16,301 8,344 2,652 5,305

Consumer Goods All Other Merchandise

5,880 2,141

6,217 2,160

6,095 2,291

6,014 2,051

6,021 2,003

16,448 6,549

16,959 5,972

17,611 6,284

17,257 6,651

18,326 6,502

80,432 12,476 6,325 289 61,342

79,824 12,720 6,371 325 60,408

80,534 12,828 5,788 293 61,625

81,699 12,904 6,527 242 62,027

83,484 12,991 7,096 225 63,172

Ind Supplies (Ex Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies

10,904 2,164 1,238 1,341 6,162

10,941 2,182 1,245 1,364 6,151

10,826 2,230 1,290 1,334 5,972

10,873 2,345 1,162 1,319 6,047

11,049 2,362 1,275 1,255 6,157

30,432 6,267 2,829 3,243 18,093

31,090 6,752 3,001 3,234 18,103

31,777 32,721 6,755 6,611 3,245 3,712 3,569 4,097 18,207 18,301

32,640 6,757 3,697 4,017 18,169

Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods

18,932 1,104 5,108 2,835 9,885

18,731 1,066 5,040 2,652 9,974

19,129 1,123 5,102 2,710 10,193

19,649 1,293 5,246 2,797 10,313

19,715 1,230 5,531 2,873 10,082

57,992 2,649 15,472 11,158 28,714

58,529 2,749 15,577 10,938 29,266

56,564 3,181 15,157 9,256 28,970

56,412 3,276 15,387 8,360 29,389

57,509 3,483 15,388 8,158 30,480

Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World

11,214 4,248 1,991 4,975

10,257 3,088 2,138 5,031

11,280 3,888 1,954 5,438

10,602 3,601 1,704 5,297

12,017 4,705 1,917 5,395

29,821 11,461 5,268 13,092

31,239 11,391 5,702 14,145

32,765 12,265 6,018 14,482

33,919 12,832 5,807 15,280

32,139 10,577 5,797 15,766

Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages All Other Merchandise

14,850 2,988 2,454

14,951 3,025 2,504

14,812 2,961 2,617

15,295 3,178 2,430

15,030 3,057 2,304

39,648 8,197 7,116

41,013 8,576 6,991

41,755 8,995 7,422

43,279 8,969 7,212

45,057 9,164 7,551

5,967 9.808 20.28

6,271 9.303 21.75

5,430 8.270 21.89

6,492 9.348 22.40

6,831 9.779 22.53

12,905 8.959 15.66

13,353 8.657 17.13

16,842 9.661 19.15

17,315 9.797 19.21

18,193 8.973 22.02

TRADE BALANCE (G&S)

-11,616

..................................................................................................................

EXPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold

IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Petroleum Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold

Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price ($/bbl) Source:

1996 Dec

1997 Jan

U.S. Department of Commerce, monthly press release (FT-900).

1995 Qtr-4

1996 Qtr-1

1996 Qtr-2

1996 Qtr-3

1996 Qtr-4

223,007 229,737 237,936 239,991 242,057 35,559 36,577 37,442 37,977 38,452 13,383 14,030 17,564 17,958 18,686 858 1,692 3,653 1,545 859 173,207 177,438 179,277 182,511 184,060

B.1.c.

March 20, 1997 TABLE 3 DETAILS OF GOODS AND SERVICES: DOLLAR CHANGES (Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted)

Amount Change from Prev. Month Oct Nov Dec Jan - - - - - - -. - . - - - - -

EXPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold

Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World

.-- -

.--

.-- - - - . -

.-- - - -

.-

- -- -.-

$ Change from Year Earlier 04-Q4 .-- - - - - -

.- -- -

2,942 366 122 -9 2,463

808 399 562 -104 -49

-1,356 22 -580 33 -831

-433 17 -110 -68 -272

1,514 883 696 640 -706

3,846 778 -756 1,550 2,274

-3,193 -287 -77 -1,819 -1,011

9,751 1,847 402 -381 7,884

11,918 3,221 266 -10 8,441

631 239 88 38 266

-513 -323 -117 -51 -22

256 155 279 -22 -156

-141 -106 -154 -1 119

-384 46 -94 1 -337

100 -306 81 -20 345

-149 299 -425 133 -157

1,680 632 496 158 395

1,246 670 58 273 237

2,333 1,097 87 225 924

-92 -273 35 31 115

-275 479 -241 -55 -458

-536 -843 375 209 -277

-237 353 473 -42 -1,021

949 1,713 -551 -646 432

-1,836 -1,656 -60 -307 186

5,684 2,489 92 794 2,309

4,558 2,899 -46 -201 1,906

-856 -793 86 -150

547 580 -84 51

-490 -341 188 -338

446 469 -200 176

-19 -265 138 108

262 363 81 -182

962 422 -6 545

-400 -729 679 -350

805 -208 892 121

337 19

-122 132

-81 -241

7 -48

512 -577

652 312

-354 367

1,068 -149

Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Building Materials Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods

.- .- - - -. - - - . - - -

Amount Change from Prev. QtrQtr-1 Qtr-2 Qtr-3 Qtr-4

Consumer Goods All Other Merchandise

1,878 -47

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,-.. . . . .

IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Petroleum

Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold

-608 244 46 36 -934

710 108 -583 -32 1,216

1,165 76 738 -51 402

1,785 87 569 -17 1,146

6,730 1,018 647 834 4,231

8,199 865 3,534 1,962 1,839

2,055 535 394 -2,108 3,234

37 18 7 23 -11

-115 48 45 -29 -179

47 115 -128 -16 75

176 17 112 -64 110

658 485 172 -9 10

687 3 244 335 104

944 -144 466 529 94

-81 146 -14 -81 -132

2,208 490 868 774 76

-201 -38 -69 -183 88

398 57 63 58 220

520 170 143 87 120

67 -64 285 76 -231

537 100 105 -220 552

-1,965 432 -421 -1,681 -296

-153 95 230 -897 418

1,097 206 1 -202 1,091

-484 834 -84 -2,999 1,766

-957 -1,160 147 56

1,023 800 -184 407

-678 -287 -250 -141

1,415 1,104 213 98

1,417 -71 434 1,053

1,526 874 315 336

1,155 567 -210 799

-1,780 -2,255 -11 485

2,318 -885 529 2,674

100 37 50

-139 -64 113

483 218 -187

-265 -121 -126

1,365 379 -125

742 419 431

1,524 -25 -210

1,778 194 340

5,409 966 435

304 -0.505 1.47

-841 -1.033 0.14

1,062 1.078 0.51

339 0.431 0.13

448 -0.303 1.47

3,488 1.005 2.02

473 0.136 0.06

879 -0.823 2.81

5,288 0.014 6.36

Ind Supplies (EX Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages ALL Other Merchandise

2,066 475 728 -686 1,548

19,050 2,893 5,303 2 10,853

.....................................................................................................................

Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price ($/bbl) Source:

U.S. Department of Commerce, monthly press release (FT-900).

B.l.d.

March 20, 1997 TABLE 4

DETAILS OF GOODS AND SERVICES: PERCENT CHANGES (Percent change from previous period)

Percent Change from Prev. Month Oct Nov Dec Jan

Percent Change from Prev. Qtr. Qtr-1 Qtr-2 Qtr-3 Qtr-4

% Change from Year Earlier Q4-04

-------.-.-----.--.----.--.---

EXPORTS, Total (G&S) Services Agricultural Gold (BOP) Nonag Goods ex Gold

4.3 2.0 2.5 -2.4 5.5

-1.9 0.1 -10.5 12.5 -1.7

-0.6 0.1 -2.2 -23.0 -0.6

0.7 1.6 4.6 68.4 -0.5

1.9 1.4 -4.8 98.3 1.7

-1.5 -0.5 -0.5 -58.2 -0.7

4.7 3.3 2.7 -29.1 5.9

-4.4 -19.9 -3.3 -5.8 -0.4

2.3 11.9 8.0 -2.7 -2.9

-1-2 -7.2 -4.1 -0.1 2.3

-1.2 1.2 -0.9 0.1 -2.1

0.3 -8.1 0.8 -0.9 2.2

-0.5 8.6 -4.0 6.1 -1.0

5.2 16.8 4.8 6.8 2.5

11.6 55.3 2.4 7.9 7.9

-0.4 -8.9 1.0 1.0 0.9

-1.2 17.1 -6.5 -1.8 -3.6

-2.4 -25.7 10.8 6.8 -2.3

-0.4 5.6 4.4 -0.4 -2.9

1.5 25.9 -4.9 -6.9 1.2

-2.9 -19.9 -0.6 -3.5 0.5

9.3 37.2 0.9 9.4 6.6

-14.1 -24.0 10.9 -7.5

10.5 23.1 -9.5 2.7

-8.5 -11.0 23.7 -17.8

8.4 17.1 -20.4 11.3

-0.1 -3.1 7.9 2.1

1.7 4.4 4.2 -3.4

6.1 4.9 -0.3 10.7

-2.4 -8.0 34.4 -6.2

-2.0 6.1

-1.3 -10.5

0.1 -2.3

3.1 -8.8

3.8 5.2

-2.0 5.8

6.2 -2.2

11.4 -0.7

1.4 0.6 12.8 -17.5 0.7

2.2 0.7 8.7 -6.9 1.8

3.0 2.9 4.8 97.3 2.4

3.6 2.4 25.2 116.0 1.0

0.9 1.4 2.2 -57.7 1.8

0.9 1.3 4.1 -44.4 0.8

8.5 8.1 39.6 0.2 6.3 7.3 7.8 30.7 23.9 0.4

Ind Supplies (Ex Ag, Gold) Fuels (coal,petrol,etc) Chemicals Building Materials Other Ind Supplies Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods Automotive Products To Canada To Mexico (NSA) To Rest of World

1.1 2.1 11.3 -28.3 -0.1

Consumer Goods All Other Merchandise

5.7 0.9

.....................................................................................................................

IMPORTS, Total (G&S) Services

Petroleum Gold (BOP) Nonpetroleum Goods ex Gold Ind Supplies (Ex Oil, Gold) Chemicals Iron & Steel Mill Prod Building Materials Other Ind Supplies

0.4 5.2 -9.9 -1.2 1.3

1.6 0.7 9.7 -4.8 1.8

2.2 7.7 6.1 -0.3 0.1

2.2 0.0 8.1 10.4 0.6

3.0 -2.1 14.4 14.8 0.5

-0.2 2.2 -0.4 -2.0 -0.7

Capital Goods Aircraft & Parts Computers & Access Semiconductors Other Capital Goods

2.7 15.1 2.8 3.2 1.2

0.3 -4.9 5.4 2.7 -2.2

0.9 3.8 0.7 -2.0 1.9

-3.4 15.7 -2.7 -15.4 -1.0

-0.3 3.0 1.5 -9.7 1.4

1.9 6.3 0.0 -2.4 3.7

-0.8 31.5 -0.5 -26.9 6.2

13.3 30.7 12.5 1.9

4.8 -0.6 8.2 8.0

4.9 7.7 5.5 2.4

3.5 4.6 -3.5 5.5

-5.2 -17.6 -0.2 3.2

7.8 -7.7 10.0 20.4 13.6 11.8 6.1

Automotive Products From Canada From Mexico (NSA) From Rest of World Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds, and Beverages All Other Merchandise Memo Items, NSA: Oil Imports: Value (SITC) Volume (mbd) Price ($/bbl) Source:

-8.5 -27.3 7.4 1.1

10.0 25.9 -8.6 8.1

-6.0 -7.4 -12.8 -2.6

0.7 1.2 2.0

-0.9 -2.1 4.5

3.3 7.4 -7.2

-1.7 -3.8 -5.2

3.4 4.6 -1.8

1.8 4.9 6.2

3.6 -0.3 -2.8

4.1 2.2 4.7

5.1 -5.1 7.2

-13.4 -11.1 0.6

19.5 13.0 2.3

5.2 4.6 0.6

3.5 -3.4 9.4

26.1 11.6 11.8

2.8 1.4 0.3

5.1 -8.4 14.6

U.S. Department of Commerce,

monthly press release (FT-900).

41.0 0.2 40.6

B.4.a.

PRICES OF MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (percent change from previous period)

March 21, 1997

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --.. . . - - - - - - - - -. - - -. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -.. .

Quarters 1996-Q4

1995

1995-04

04

Months

1996 01

02

1997 03

04

1996

Q1-e

Jul

Aug

Sep

1997 Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

(Quarterly Average, Annual Rates) (Monthly Rates) ----------------------------------------------------- BLS Prices, NSA (1995=100)----------------------------------------------------Imports, Total Oil Non-oil Ind Supp Ex Oil Computers Semiconductors Cap. Goods ex comp & semi Automotive Products Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds & Beverages Exports, Total Agricultural Nonagricultural Ind Supp ex Ag Computers Semiconductors Cap. Goods ex. comp & semi Automotive Products Consumer Goods Foods, Feeds & Beverages

1.7

-1.2

2.4

1.6

36.7 -1.7 -3.2 -11.1 -14.7 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7

0.4 -1.1 0.3 -7.4 -7.3 -1.4 1.5 -0.1 -7.2

47.2 -1.2 -3.1 -7.9 -11.8 1.3 -0.7 1.2 -4.4

41.5 -2.4 -5.1 -16.9 -16.7 -2.7 -0.5 -0.8 11.4

-1.1

0.1

0.9

22.7 -2.9 -10.8 -7.3 -3.0 2.4 5.0 0.3 24.8

13.8 -0.7 -3.8 -9.2 -1.8 2.9 -0.1 2.4 14.6

-4.4 -0.6 -2.8 -9.7 -6.8 2.2 0.4 1.3 -4.4

-2.4

5.3

-1.6

1.9 -2.8 -5.3 -10.9 -15.4 -0.1 0.7 -0.8 -10.5

64.3 -0.4 0.8 -8.5 -14.9 -0.0 0.1 -0.5 1.8

-4.8 -1.3 8.2 -12.7 -26.8 -4.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.2

2.4

-3.5

-4.2

0.5

31.5 -1.2 -4.9 -7.6 -5.5 2.4 0.3 1.3 36.4

-18.0 -0.9 -3.2 -11.9 -15.5 2,4 0.3 0.7 -17.7

-31.9 0.4 0.8 -10.2 -3.6 1.2 1.3 0.9 -35.0

-0.8 0.5 0.4 -7.4 -3.6 2.4 1.1 0.9 -2.7

1

1

-0.1

0.1

1.2

0.5

-0.2

0.3

-0.2

-0.7

1.9 -0.4 -0.9 -0.4 -1.6 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -1.2

2.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.8 -3.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.8

7.5 0.4 0.3 -1.0 2.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.9

7.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -2.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.2

-0.8 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 -2.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5

2.0 0.1 0.7 -0.7 -1.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 -1.1

1.4 -0.4 1.0 -2.0 -5.3 -1.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0

-7.2 0.1 0.7 -1.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.2 1.8

-0.5

-0.2

-0.8

-0.2

-0.4

0.0

0.2

0.1

-1.9 0.2 -0.4 -1.7 -2.8 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -1.6

-0.2 - 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.4

-7.3 0.2 0.6 -1.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -8.4

-2.6 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 -3.0

-2.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.9 -0,4 0.1 0.2 0.0 -1.9

-0.9 0.1 0.2 -1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 -1.2

0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.3

2.2 -0.1 0.2 -1.0 -0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1

---------------------------------------------- Prices in the NIPA Accounts (1992=100)------------------------------------------------Chain-type index Imports, Total Merch. Oil Non-oil Exports, Total Nerch. Ag Nonag Deflators

-2.1 -3.1 -2.0

0.3 53.2 -3.1

0.1 54.0 -3.8

-2.7 1.3 -3.0

3.8 68.7 -1.4

-1.8 20.4 -4.0

-1.0 9.5 -2.2

0.4 28,0 -2.6

-3.6 -13.0 -2.3

-4.2 -27.8 -0.8 --

Imports, Total Merch. Oil Non-oil Exports, Total Merch. Ag Nonag

-2.3 1.1 -2.4

-3.0 -2.6 -2.9

-2.7 0.6 -3.0

-0.4 53.2 3..7

0.0 54.6 -4.2

-3.1 1.1 -3.5

-2.3 18.6 -4.4

-1.9 7.5 -3.1

-2.3 24.2 -4.1

-3.5 -9.8 -2.8

e-- Average of first two months of quarter.

H

.... t i t tt

1.2 68.6 -2.5 -4.3 -25.2 -1.7

--

--- --- --

I 0