Greenbook/Tealbook
Prefatory Note
The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.
1
In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.
CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS
II - FOMC
September 26, 1997
SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Real GDP and corporate profits . Manufacturers' orders, shipments, Sales of existing homes. . . . . Consumer sentiment . . . . . . .
Real
gross domestic product and
.
. . . . . . . . . and inventories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
1
1 S S
2 2
related items.
New orders for durable goods . . . . . . . .. Business capital spending indicators . . . . . Changes in manufacturing and trade inventories . . . . ... Selected inventory-sales ratios . Private housing activity . . . . . . . . . . . University of Michigan survey research center: Survey of consumer attitudes . . . . . . .
.
.
.
10
Indicators of future production: New orders indexes. . Orders and shipments of nondefense capital goods .. . . . . . . . Inventory-sales ratios, by major sector MBA indexes of mortgage loan applications . . . . ...
5 7 9 11
Charts
THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY
Table .
Selected financial market quotations THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.. .
.
.
.
.
..
. . ..
.
12
.
3
Tables Outlook for U.S.
international transactions. .
.
.
.
.
13
SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Real GDP and Corporate Profits According to BEA's final estimate, real GDP increased 3.3 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 1997.
Final sales rose 2-1/2 percent, with rapid growth in business fixed investment partly offset by a lull in consumer spending and a further decline in net exports. Inventories accumulated at a pace well above that of the first quarter, contributing about 3/4 percentage point to second-quarter growth. The final estimate of real GDP growth was 0.3 percentage point below the 3.6 percent pace reported in BEA's preliminary release. The August Greenbook forecast anticipated essentially no revision to GDP growth. Exports of goods and services did not grow as much as we had anticipated mainly because of a sharp downward revision to agricultural exports. The final estimates of growth in PCE services and producers' durable equipment also came in a little below our expectations. The estimates of corporate profits for 1997:Q2 were little changed.
Corporate profits (with inventory valuation adjustment and
capital consumption adjustments) are now reported to have risen $15-1/2 billion from the first-quarter level, and the profit share of GNP (excluding Federal Reserve banks) stayed at 9.6 percent, the same as in the first quarter. Taking account of the final second-quarter estimates, together with the other data that have become available since Wednesday (reported below), we would be inclined to leave our forecast for growh of real GDP in the current quarter close to where it was in the Greenbook--about 2-3/4 percent at an annual rate. Manufacturers' Orders. Shipments, and Inventories New orders for total durable goods rose 2.7 percent in August. The staff's constructed series on real adjusted durable goods--which strips out nondefense aircraft, defense capital goods, and industries for which reported orders actually equal shipments-increased 2.8 percent.
The increase was driven by a marked
turnaround in bookings for electronic components, which jumped 78 percent in August after having declined almost 23 percent in July.
This big swing may have been the result of pre-announced
price cuts on computer components that became effective in August. Excluding electronic components, real adjusted durable goods orders dropped 3.3 percent in August reversing July's 2.9 percent increase.
New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and parts fell 5.4 percent in August after having risen almost 10 percent during the preceding two months. The August drop was due in large part to the reversal of July's outsized increase in bookings for search and navigation equipment; excluding this category, new orders were down 0.7 percent. Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and parts fell 2.4 percent in August. Shipments of communications equipment posted another large increase, but shipments of computing and office equipment declined and shipments of other nondefense capital goods (excluding aircraft) dropped back 2.3 percent. Revised data on manufacturers' inventories for July now indicate a somewhat smaller accumulation in July, $18.7 billion (annual rate), than the $25.7 billion increase shown earlier. Sales of Existing Homes Sales of existing homes rose 3.3 percent in August to a record rate of 4.32 million units; the July sales rate was revised down slightly to 4.18 million units.
The average level of sales during
the first two months of the current quarter was up 2-1/4 percent from the second-quarter average. Among regions, sales rose in the Midwest, the South, and the West, but declined in the Northeast. The median price of existing homes sold rose 4.3 percent during the twelve months ended in August while the average price increased 6.1 percent. Cutting through the monthly volatility, twelve-month percent changes in average prices for existing homes have accelerated so far this year. However, these price changes are not adjusted for the characteristics of the homes sold. The repeatsales index, which is compiled by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and which attempts to control for quality change by looking at sales of the same units over time, was up 3.6 percent in the second quarter from its reading a year earlier. The four-quarter percent changes in the repeat sales index have been trending down since early 1996. Consumer Sentiment The final tabulation of the results of the Michigan SRC survey of consumer sentiment for September shows a slightly lower level of the overall index than reported earlier; nonetheless, the September reading remains second only to July's record high. Households' assessments of current conditions are now reported to have picked up in September to a shade above July's high; consumers' views about their personal financial situation in the year ahead and their
appraisal of buying conditions for large household appliances became more positive.
The index of expected conditions is now reported to
be little changed in September, albeit at a relatively high level. In response to questions not included in the overall index, consumers remained optimistic about labor market prospects, and their opinions about buying conditions for houses improved markedly to a level just below its previous high in early 1994. Both mean and median expected inflation for the coming year rose 0.2 percentage point in September to 3.5 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.
Regarding the inflation outlook for the
next five to ten years, the mean expectation edged down in September to 3.7 percent while the median moved up to 3.2 percent.
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Attached are updated copies of pages 1-38, 39,
and 40
(Greensheets following the International Developments section of Part 1).
They include corrected data for the percentage point
contributions of real net exports of goods and services to the growth of real GDP.
9-29-97
-4-
Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items (Percent change from previous period at compound annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted data, chain-type indexes)
1. 2. 3.
1995:Q4 to 1996:Q4
1997:Q1 Final
3.2
4.9
3.6
3.3
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.7
5.3
1.0
.9
Gross domestic product Final sales Consumer spending
1997:Q2 Preliminary Final
4.
Durables
3.9
14.1
-5.4
-5.4
5.
Nondurables
1.8
4.7
-2.3
-2.1
6.
Services
2.8
3.9
4.0
3.9
11.7
4.1
15.4
14.6
6.7
23.8
23.0
-3.9
-4.7
7.
Business fixed investment
8.
Producers' durable equipment
12.2
9.
Nonresidential structures
10.3
-2.1
10.
Residential investment
3.9
3.3
7.1
7.4
11.
Federal government consumption expenditures and investment
1.5
-5.8
6.8
6.6
-11.8
7.6
7.5
12.
Defense
1.1
13.
Nondefense
2.5
8.0
5.3
4.9
2.2
2.7
1.0
1.2
9.3 11.8
9.9 17.9
19.7 19.9
18.4 20.5
22.52 -5.32 27.82
58.3 1.8 56.6
70.4 3.6 66.8
70.1 2.1 68.0
2.62
5.3
7.4
7.5
14. 15. 16.
State and local government consumption expenditures and investment Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services
ADDENDA: 17. 18. 19.
Nonfarm inventory investment 1 Motor vehicles ' Excl. motor vehicles 1
20.
Farm inventory investment 1
21.
Net exports of goods and services 1
22.
Nominal GDP
5.6
7.4
5.2
5.2
23.
GDP price index
2.3
2.4
1.5
1.8
24. 25.
Prof it share 3 (Excluding FR banks)
9.62 9.32
9.8 9.6
9.9 9.6
9.9 9.6
26.
Personal saving rate (percent)
4.32
3.7
4.2
4.2
1. 2. 3.
Level, billions of chain (1992) dollars. Annual average. Economic profits as a share of nominal GNP.
-114.42
-126.3
-132.7
-136.6
NEW ORDERS FOR DURABLE GOODS (percent change from preceding period, seasonally adjusted) Share 1997 H1
1997 Q1
1997 Q2
1997 Jun
1997 Jul
1997 Aug
Jul-Aug/ 1997-Q2
100.0
1.9
1.2
2.9
0.1
2.7
3.2
82.0
2.0
1.3
2.6
-1.1
4.0
2.7
69.0
4.5
1.5
0.7
0.5
2.6
2.5
Office & computing machines
5.0
0.1
0.2
1.7
6.4
-1.3
7.4
Electronic components
7.0
4.8
1.3
-12.7
-22.6
77.9
5.7
17.0
7.2
0.4
3.5
6.6
-6,6
5.1
41.0
3.9
2.2
1.9
0.9
-2.1
0.2
4.7
2.1
0.8
0.8
2.8
3.1
Total durable goods Industries with orders data Adjusted durable goods orders
1
Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and computers All other categories
2
Chain weighted verson of real 3 adjusted orders
1. Orders excluding defense capital goods, nondefense aircraft, and motor vehicle parts. 2. Includes primary metals, most fabricated metals, most stone, clay, and glass products, electronic components, household appliances, scientific instruments, and miscellaneous durable goods. 3. Nominal adjusted durable goods orders were deflated with a PPI for durable goods excluding transportation equipment and the BEA deflator for office, computing and accounting machinery.
Indicators of Future Production: New Orders Indexes Diffusion index
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Note. Indexes above 50 indicate orders are increasing, and indexes below 50 indicate orders are decreasing. *APICS data from the American Production and Inventory Control Society
1997
-6-
BUSINESS
CAPITAL SPENDING INDICATORS
(Percent change from preceding comparable period; based on seasonally adjusted data, in current dollars) 1996 Q4
1997 Q1
1997 Q2
June
July
Aug.
Producers' durable equipment Shipments of nondefense capital goods Excluding aircraft and parts Office and computing Conunications equipment All other categories
1.5 .8 -.7 4.1 .5
1.4 .8 2.6 -1.0 .6
5.5 4.1 2.3 6.2 4.3
2.6 3.8 5.9 2.1 3.5
2.7 1.1 1.4 2.9 .5
-2.4 -1.2 -1.1 3.0 -2.3
Shipments of complete aircraft i
21.1
n.a.
n.a.
-23.1
52.5
n.a.
Sales of heavy trucks
-5.5
7.3
-1.8
-11.9
18.8
-8.0
Orders of nondefense capital goods Excluding aircraft and parts Office and computing Communications equipment All other categories
.2 -.8 -.6 3.7 -1.9
2.5 5.5 .1 12.4 5.9
-.5 .3 .2 4.6 -.7
6.8 3.1 1.7 13.9 .7
.4 6.6 6.4 -16.1 13.6
.9 -5.4 -1.3 5.9 -9.4
5.2 2.2 5.6
1.8 4.1 2.7
-1.4 -3.0 -5.3
1.1 7.1 -2.4
1.2 -.3 -.8
n.a. n.a. n.a.
-2.1
Nonresidential structures Construction put in place, buildings Office Other commercial Institutional
7.5
4.6
4.8
-. 4
n.a.
Industrial Lodging and miscellaneous
4.6 6.8
-4.2 2.7
-2.8 4.8
4.5 .2
6.8 1.3
n.a. n.a.
Rotary drilling rigs in use 2
-1.6
16.2
11.9
2.2
-4.0
-1.5
Memo: Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Office and computing Communications equipment Other equipment 3 Nonresidential structures
5.9 2.6 31.0 -5.6 -2.8 15.3
4.1 6.7 27.9 10.3 6.0 -2.1
15.4 23.8 46.0 7.5 19.2 -3.9
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
1. From the Current Industrial Report "Civil Aircraft and Aircraft Engines." Monthly data are seasonally adjusted using FRB seasonal factors constrained to BEA quarterly seasonal factors. Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted using BEA seasonal factors. 2. Percent change of number of rigs in use, seasonally adjusted. 3. Producers' durable equipment excluding office and computing, communications, motor vehicles, and aircraft and parts. n.a. Not available.
-7-
Orders and Shipments of Nondefense Capital Goods Office and Computing Equipment Billions of dollars
F
Aug.
Orders
1994
1995
1996
1997
Communications Equipment Billions of dollars
j
a
i/i1
\ 1
\
V
~~I
'
f'
;\~y-^ l
1-*'-*,/
-'^ ~
,'
'
S
''
'I
Aug d
j
* \r
i
''
'/''
1994
1995
1996
1997
Other Equipment (Excluding Aircraft, Computing, and Communications Equipment) Billions of dollars
I' I I r
I II
*,
*
r
C
s I
P
r
C
r,,
/I
r
\e
I
r r
1994
1995
1996
1997
-8-
CHANGES IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES (Billions of dollars at annual rate; based on seasonally adjusted data) 1996 Q4
1997 Q1
1997 Q2
May
June
July
Book value basis Total Excluding wholesale and retail motor vehicles Manufacturing Excluding aircraft Wholesale Excluding motor vehicles Retail Auto dealers
Excluding auto dealers
16.0
35.8
51.5
22.5
86.8
15.3
22.2 7.0 2.5 4.1 6.0
30.9 16.5 9.1 14.3 11.5
48.9 25.1 19.8 19.1 14.3
35.1 23.4 22.0 11.8 6.4
64.8 16.4 8.0 61.5 44.7
18.8 18.7 15.1 -20.4 -13.0
4.9 -4.3
5.0 2.1
7.4 -2.1
-12.7 -18.0
8.9 5.2
17.0 3.9
9.1
2.8
9.6
5.3
3.7
13.1
SELECTED INVENTORY-SALES RATIOS (Months' supply, based on Census book-value data, seasonally adjusted) Cyclical reference points 1995-96 1990-91 Low High
Range over preceding 12 months Low High
July 1997
1.58
1.37
1.39
1.35
1.36
1.55
1.34
1.35
1.32
1.33
Manufacturing Primary metals Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Motor vehicles Aircraft Nondefense capital goods Textile Petroleum Home goods & apparel
1.75 2.08 2.48 2.08 2.93 .97 5.84 3.09 1.71 .94 1.96
1.36 1.49 1.80 1.41 1.48 .56 4.15 2.31 1.44 .75 1.67
1.38 1.70 1.89 1.48 1.61 .62 4.88 2.39 1.54 .84 1.72
1.35 1.60 1,74 1.33 1.49 .57 4.09 2.27 1.47 .75 1.65
1.34 1.59 1.72 1.37 1.52 .56 4.10 2.23 1.48 .81 1.71
Merchant wholesalers Less motor vehicles Durable goods Nondurable goods
1.36 1.31 1.83 .96
1.24 1.22 1.53 .93
1.27 1.24 1.57 .96
1.22 1.20 1.50 .92
1.24 1.21 1.50 .94
Retail trade Less automotive dealers Automotive dealers General merchandise Apparel GAF
1.61 1.48 2.21 2.43 2.56 2.44
1.50 1.43 1.68 2.21 2.42 2.23
1.53 1.45 1.80 2.26 2.56 2.28
1.48 1.41 1.68 2.12 2.43 2.16
1.50 1.43 1.71 2.10 2.49 2.14
Manufacturing and trade Less wholesale and retail motor vehicles
Inventory-Sales Ratios, by Major Sector (Book value) value) (Book
Manufacturing
Ratio
2.2
1.95
STo
1.7
-'-
1.45
*
Excluding aircraft and parts I
I
I
1980
I
1982
1984
1986
I
'u I
1988
I
1990
,
-
1.2
.
I
1992
1994
1996
Ratio
-
-
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1.5
- 1.4
-
1980
uly July
1994
-
1.3 1.2
July -
1.2
1996
Retail Ratio
2.8 -
1.7
2.6 -
,
2.4
GAF group (left scale)
"
"
'
1.6
"
2.2
July
-1
1.8 inr l
1980
ill
1982
ll.ll
1984
1986
1988
1990
11--1992
1.4
1.3 ll
1994
1996
6
September 26, 1997 UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER: SURVEY OF CONSUMER ATTITUDES (Not seasonally adjusted) 1997 Jan
1997 Feb
1997 Mar
1997 Apr
1997 May
1997 Jun
1997 Jul
1997 Aug
97.4 106.8 91.3
99.7 107.2 94.9
100.0 109.8 93.6
101.4 115.2 92.5
103.2 113.5 96.6
104.5 113.2 98.9
107.1 114.0 102.6
104.4 110.7 100.3
106.0 114.1 100.7
Personal financial situation Now compared with 12 months ago* Expected in 12 months*
116 128
114 134
119 134
132 130
122 138
126 131
130 133
121 138
127 138
Expected business conditions Next 12 months* Next 5 years*
136 103
135 113
138 105
130 113
142 109
147 121
151 130
150 116
149 119
Appraisal of buying conditions Cars Large household appliances* Houses
141 160 162
130 164 166
135 166 155
136 167 153
150 173 160
154 168 160
136 166 165
139 167 166
143 170 173
45 71
39 67
37 66
41 68
49 71
43 73
49 68
48 70
50 57
114
107
112
113
109
108
104
107
103
4.1 3.0
3.8 3.0
3.5 2.8
3.7 3.0
3.7 2.9
3.5 2.8
3.4 2.7
3.3 2.7
3.5 2.9
4.0 3.1
3.7 3.1
3.6 3.0
3.6 2.9
3.8 3.0
3.9 3.1
3.4 2.9
3.8 3.0
3.7 3.2
1997 Sep (f)
Indexes of consumer sentiment (Feb. 1966=100) Composite of current and expected conditions Current conditions Expected conditions
Willingness to use credit Willingness to use savings Expected unemployment change - next 12 months Expected inflation - next 12 months Mean Median Expected inflation - next 5 to 10 years Mean Median
* -- Indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. (p) -- Preliminary (f)
-- Final
Note: Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent reporting 'good times' (or 'better') minus the percent reporting 'bad times' (or 'worse'), plus 100. Expected change in unemployment is the fraction expecting unemployment to rise minus the fraction expecting unemployment to fall, plus 100.
-11-
Private Housing Activity (Millions of units; seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Q1
Q2r
1997 Juner
1.42 1.38
1.47 1.43
1.46 1.43
1.50 1.40
1.43 1.41
1.36 1.39
1.16 1.07 .76 4.09
1.09 1.01 .76 4.00
1.17 1.05 .82 4.10
1.12 1.05 .78 4.15
1.13 1.05 .81 4.15
1.13 1.03 .82 4.18
1.07 1.03 n.a. 4.32
Multifamily units Starts Permits
.32 .36
.33 .38
.30 .38
.34 .37
.37 .35
.30 .38
.29 .36
Mobile homes Shipments
.36
.35
.35
.36
.36
.36
n.a.
1996
1996 Q4
All units Starts Permits
1.48 1.43
Single-family units Starts Permits New home sales Existing home sales
Julyr
Aug.P
Note. p Preliminary. r Revised. n.a. Not available.
MBA Indexes of Mortgage Loan Applications (Seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve Board staff) Purchase Index
March 16, 1990 = 100
Weekly MBA Purchase Application Index 4-week moving average Sep. 19
-I
150
-1 100
I
I 1990
1992
1993
I
I
I
I
I 1991
1994
1995
I
I 1996
1997
-12-
Selected Financial Market Quotations1 (Percent except as noted) 1997 Instrument
Change to Sep. 25. from:
Mar.
FOMC *
Jan. 2
low
Aug. 19
Sep. 25
5.79
5.27
5.58
5.05 5.14 5.28
5.04 5.17 5.37
5.48 5.47
Mar.
FOMC *
Jan. 2
low
Aug. 19
5.51
-0.28
0.24
-0.07
5.13 5.15 5.21
4.80 4.97 5.20
-0.25 -0.17 -0.08
-0.24 -0.20 -0.17
-0.33 -0.18 -0.01
5.40 5.45
5.54 5.56
5.49 5.46
0.01 -0.01
0.09 0.01
-0.05 -0.10
5.39 5.42 5.50
5.32 5.42 5.58
5.53 5.58 5.68
5.58 5.59 5.70
0.19 0.17 0.20
0.26 0.17 0.12
0.05 0.01 0.02
5.38 5.44
5.31 5.44
5.50 5.56
5.56 5.56
0.18 0.12
0.25 0.12
0.06 0.00
8.25
8.25
8.50
8.50
0.25
0.25
0.00
6.13 6.54 6.75
6.25 6.56 6.83
5.94 6.21 6.53
5.93 6.13 6.40
-0.20 -0.41 -0.35
-0.32 -0.43 -0.43
-0.01 -0.08 -0.13
n.a.
3.36
3.53
3.58
n.a.
0.22
0.05
Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer)
5.96
5.97
5.71
5.63
-0.33
-0.34
-0.08
Corporate-A utility, recently offered
7.64
7.97
7.64
7.45
-0.19
-0.52
-0.19
High-yield corporate 7
9.72
9.49
9.15
9.03
-0.69
-0.46
-0.12
7.64 5.57
7.84 5.54
7.54 5.56
7.28 5.53
-0.36 -0.04
-0.56 -0.01
-0.26 -0.03
Short-term rates Federal funds
2
Treasury bills
3
3-month 6-month 1-year Commercial paper 4 1-month 3-month Large negotiable CDs' 1-month 3-month 6-month Eurodollar deposits 1-month 3-month Bank prime rate Intermediate- and long-term rates U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 3-year 10-year 30-year U.S. Treasury 10-year indexed note
Home mortgages' FHLMC 30-yr fixed rate FHLMC l-yr adjustable rate Record high
1997
Percentage change to Sep. 25, from:
FOMC *
Record
FOMC *
Level
Date
Jan. 2
Aug. 19
Sep. 25
high
Jan. 2
Aug. 19
Dow-Jones Industrial
8259.31
8/6/97
6441.49
7803.36
7848.01
-4.98
21.84
0.57
S&P 500 Composite
960.32
8/6/97
736.01
912.49
937.91
-2.33
27.43
2.79
1697.36
9/23/97
1279.70
1569.52
1678.89
-1.09
31.19
6.97
449.42
9/23/97
357.96
408.73
447.92
-0.33
25.13
9.59
Stock exchange index
NASDAQ (OTC) Russell 2000
Wilshire 9222.33 9/22/97 7146.80 8708.58 9097.46 -1.35 27.29 4.47 1. One-day quotes except as noted. 2. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is the average for maintenance period ending September 24, 1997. 3. Secondary market. 4. As of September 2, 1997, commercial paper rates are those collected by the Depository Trust Company; prior rates are averages of offering rates at several large dealers. 5. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 6. Most recent observation based on one-day Thursday quote and futures market index changes. 7. Merrill Lynch Master II high-yield bond index composite. 8. Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown. * Figures cited are as of the close on August 18, 1997.
Strictly Confidential Class II FOMC
CORRECTED September 25, 1997
(FR) OUTLOOK FOR U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
-----1997
1996
Projected -----1998 1999
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth, Q4/Q4 Net Goods & Services Exports of G&S Imports of G&S
0.4 0.8
-0.4 0.4
-0.6 0.5
-0.4 1.0
0.4 1.1
-0.4 1.0
-0.4 1.4
-0.3 0.9
-0.2 0.8
-0.4
-0.8
-1.1
-1.4
-0.7
-1.4
-1.8
-1.2
-1.0
Percentage change, Q4/Q4 Exports of G&S Services Agricultural Goods Computers Semiconductors Other Goods 1/
8.6 7.1 10.1 21.7 41.8 7.0
4.1 -0.9 10.4 25.2 64.8 2.3
4.6 4.1 -5.5 23.7 32.9 3.6
10.0 6.0 16.6 32.0 66.9 6.9
10.3 9.0 -3.4 55.7 80.4 5.7
9.3 4.7 5.7 33.8 45.9 7.6
12.3 2.5 2.4 67.1 34.3 13.2
7.6 2.6 0.0 45.8 41.2 5.2
6.1 3.5 1.9 43.1 41.2 1.5
Imports of G&S Services Oil Computers Semiconductors Other Goods 2/
4.1 -2.7 8.1 35.9 55.3 2.5
7.4 1.4 12.1 45.1 42.0 5.4
10.2 3.2 10.1 39.3 34.2 9.5
12.3 1.4 -0.2 44.8 54.5 12.2
5.6 7.3 1.5 46.2 92.7 -1.2
11.8 5.0 8.3 23.6 57.9 10.5
14.9 11.0 0.5 55.0 45.0 12.7
9.2 3.5 3.2 40.0 41.8 6.7
7.0 2.0 1.8 39.5 40.6 3.7
-98.8 791.2 890.1
-114.4 857.0 971.5
-139.3 969.5 1108.8
-165.1 1061.5 1226.6
-194.8 1124.3 1319.1
Billions of chained 1992 dollars Net Goods & Services Exports of G&S Imports of G&S
-22.3 599.9 622.2
-29.5 639.4 669.0
-70.2 658.2 728.4
-104.6 712.4 817.0
Billions of dollars US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
-4.5
-55.4
-90.5
-133.5
-129.1
-148.2
-167.4
-183.5
-214.0
Net Goods & Services (BOP) Exports of G&S (BOP) Imports of G&S (BOP)
-29.9 580.7 610.6
-38.3 617.7 655.9
-72.0 643.0 715.0
-104.4 699.7 804.1
-101.9 794.6 896.5
-111.0 848.8 959.9
-112.0 933.1 1045.2
-114.6 1010.0 1124.5
-138.7 1068.9 1207.6
Net Investment Income Direct, Net Portfolio, Net
20.3 55.6 -35.4
18.0 51.6 -33.6
19.7 55.7 -36.0
9.7 50.8 -41.0
6.8 60.0 -53.2
2.8 66.8 -63.9
-15.4 68.3 -83.7
-27.2 69.2 -96.4
-33.6 78.4 -112.0
5.1
-35.2
-38.1
-38.8
-34.0
-40.0
-40.0
-41.8
-41.8
Net Transfers
1. Merchandise exports excluding agricultural products, computers, and semiconductors. 2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, computers, and semiconductors.
CORRECTED September 25, 1997
Strictly Confidential (FR) Class II FOMC OUTLOOK FOR U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS 1994 -----------I-----------------
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1995 ----------------------------
Q2
Q1
Q3
1996 --- ------------------------
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.0 1.2 -0.3
-1.3 0.2 -1.5
-0.6 1.1 -1.7
-1.4 0.2 -1.6
1.8 2.7 -0.8
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth Net Goods & Services Exports of G&S Imports of G&S
-1.0 -0.2 -0.8
-0.3 1.7 -2.0
-0.4 1.0 -1.4
0.3 1.4 -1.1
-0.4 0.7 -1.1
0.1 1.0 -0.9
1.1 1.4 -0.2
Percentage change from previous period, SAAR Exports of G&S Services Agricultural Goods Computers Semiconductors Other Goods 1/ Imports of G&S Services Oil Computers Semiconductors Other Goods 2/
-1.8 2.4 -25.2 21.4 111.8 -6.8
17.7 12.9 8.1 24.3 23.4 20.3
10.6 2.0 45.3 35.5 65.9 7.4
14.7 6.9 57.2 48.4 79.1 8.6
7.2 6.0 -1.3 34.9 72.0 2.9
9.3 3.8 -17.5 41.0 97.0 8.2
13.5 20.3 19.7 89.6 100.3 1.0
11.5 6.6 -10.7 63.1 56.2 11.0
1.7 -3.8 12.5 46.2 19.9 -1.2
9.6 9.7 -34.3 31.8 28.3 13.2
1.9 0.3 13.1 29.2 37.6 -3.1
25.5 13.5 49.2 28.7 113.8 23.9
7.6 2.7 -8.6 32.9 60.7 6.9
19.0 4.1 27.2 48.3 23.7 19.6
13.1 -0.4 33.5 42.3 74.4 10.3
9.9 -0.9 -36.2 57.0 64.3 12.5
10.0 24.4 -8.1 8.1 29.6 7.3
7.7 -4.0 12.5 57.3 108.0 2.2
2.3 8.4 28.0 65.8 157.1 -10.0
2.4 2.2 -19.7 61.8 98.8 -3.6
13.1 14.6 -7.6 6.4 30.4 14.5
14.1 2.7 67.2 30.7 10.3 11.0
13.2 1.2 10.6 26.9 75.5 12.2
6.8 2.1 -19.6 32.0 146.4 4.3
-92.9 802.4 895.4
-76.1 824.6 900.7
-100.8 828.2 929.0
-112.6 847.4 960.0
-138.9 851.4 990.2
-105.6 901.1 1006.6
Billions of chained 1992 dollars Net Goods & Services Exports of G&S Imports of G&S
-97.6 676.0 773.6
-103.9 704.1 808.0
-111.1 722.1 833.2
-105.9 747.3 853.2
-113.5 760.4 873.9
-112.8 777.4 890.3
Billions of dollars -104.6
-128.0
-145.5
-156.1
-138.8
-142.8
-132.5
-102.2
-131.5
-142.3
-171.3
-147.5
Net Goods & Services (BOP) Exports of G&S (BOP) Imports of G&S (BOP)
-90.6 662.5 753.1
-101.5 688.4 789.9
-114.0 710.9 824.9
-111.6 736.8 848.4
-113.2 761.5 874.7
-123.2 785.9 909.1
-95.5 806.4 901.9
-75.5 824.6 900.1
-98.2 828.4 926.6
-111.1 848.6 959.7
-130.1 840.3 970.4
-104.8 878.0 982.8
Net Investment Income Direct, Net Portfolio, Net
17.9 51.7 -33.8
10.6 48.9 -38.3
7.2 51.0 -43.8
3.3 51.5 -48.2
8.2 57.6 -49.4
12.9 64.1 -51.3
-1.6 53.9 -55.5
7.8 64.5 -56.7
8.2 66.2 -57.9
3.5 64.2 -60.7
-5.5 60.3 -65.7
5.0 76.4 -71.4
Net Transfers
-31.9
-37.1
-38.7
-47.7
-33.8
-32.5
-35.4
-34.5
-41.6
-34.8
-35.8
-47.7
US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
1. Merchandise exports excluding agricultural products, computers, and semiconductors. 2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, computers, and semiconductors.
Strictly Confidential Class II FOMC
CORRECTED September 25, 1997
(FR) OUTLOOK FOR U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS --------------------------------- Projected
1997 ---------------------------
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
--------------------------------
1998 -------------------------
Q1
Q2
Q3
1999 -----------------------
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.3 1.2 -0.9
-0.5 0.4 -0.9
-0.1 1.0 -1.1
-0.6 0.3 -1.0
0.4 1.3 -0.9
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS Percentage point contribution to GDP growth Net Goods & Services Exports of G&S Imports of G&S
-1.0 1.1 -2.1
-0.3 2.2 -2.4
-0.9 0.6 -1.5
0.4 1.7 -1.2
0.1 1.3 -1.2
-0.7 0.8 -1.4
-0.9 0.3 -1.2
Percentage change from previous period, SAAR Exports of G&S Services Agricultural Goods Computers Semiconductors Other Goods 1/
9.9 3.7 -27.6 72.3 39.0 12.4
20.2 3.5 20.9 85.5 15.3 25.1
4.9 1.4 7.2 60.8 41.2 0.2
14.7 1.4 17.0 51.8 43.8 16.5
11.4 2.0 -7.2 49.1 41.2 13.2
6.5 2.7 -3.7 46.4 41.2 3.9
2.4 2.7 3.8 43.8 41.2 -3.9
10.1 3.0 7.8 43.8 41.2 8.5
3.4 3.5 2.0 43.8 41.2 -2.9
8.2 3.5 -5.6 43.3 41.2 6.0
2.5 3.5 3.9 42.7 41.2 -5.0
10.7 3.6 7.8 42.7 41.2 8.5
Imports of G&S Services Oil Computers Semiconductors Other Goods 2/
17.9 24.2 -10.8 51.3 71.2 15.3
20.5 9.5 44.6 71.6 19.1 17.0
12.0 5.7 -6.3 51.8 50.7 10.5
9.6 5.6 -15.6 46.4 43.8 8.3
9.7 5.1 -9.4 40.7 42.7 8.3
11.4 3.7 33.3 39.7 42.2 7.6
9.1 2.7 10.9 39.8 41.1 6.1
6.7 2.5 -15.5 40.0 41.4 4.9
6.5 2.2 -11.3 39.5 40.6 4.2
8.3 2.0 26.5 39.5 40.6 3.7
7.0 1.9 2.7 39.6 40.8 3.5
6.3 1.9 -6.8 39.4 40.4 3.3
-180.6 1062.4 1243.0
-175,0 1088.3 1263.2
-186.0 1097.3 1283.3
-190.1 1119.2 1309.3
-205.7 1126.0 1331.7
-197.4 1154.9 1352.3
Billions of chained 1992 dollars Net Goods & Services Exports of G&S Imports of G&S
-126.3 922.7 1048.9
-132.9 966.0 1098.9
-152.9 977.7 1130.6
-145.0 1011.7 1156.7
-144.5 1039.4 1183.9
-160.2 1056.0 1216.2
Billions of dollars -159.9
-156.9
-175.5
-177.4
-163.1
-175.3
-195.3
-200.3
-200.4
-205.2
-222.7
-227.7
Net Goods & Services (BOP) -117.2 897.0 Exports of G&S (BOP) Imports of G&S (BOP) 1014.2
-106.6 936.2 1042.8
-118.8 935.1 1053.9
-105.6 964.1 1069.8
-99.9 989.7 1089.6
-110.4 1004.9 1115.3
-127.6 1010.4 1138.0
-120.3 1034.9 1155.1
-131.0 1043.4 1174.4
-134.6 1064.5 1199.0
-148.9 1070.3 1219.2
-140.2 1097.6 1237.7
Net Investment Income Direct, Net Portfolio, Net
-8.0 69.3 -77.3
-14.1 69.5 -83.6
-17.7 67.7 -85.3
-21.7 66.7 -88.4
-24.2 66.9 -91.1
-25.9 68.0 -93.9
-28.7 69.5 -98.1
-30.1 72.6 -102.6
-30.3 74.5 -104.9
-31.7 77.6 -109.3
-34.8 79.6 -114.4
-37.6 81.9 -119.4
Net Transfers
-34.7
-36.3
-39.0
-50.0
-39.0
-39.0
-39.0
-50.0
-39.0
-39.0
-39.0
-50.0
US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
1. Merchandise exports excluding agricultural products, computers, and semiconductors. 2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, computers, and semiconductors.
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1997, September 29). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19970930_part2
@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19970930_part2,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
year = {1997},
month = {Sep},
howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19970930_part2},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}