Greenbook/Tealbook
Prefatory Note
The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original files from the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.
Content last modified 04/01/2015.
Class III FOMC - Internal (FR)
December 11, 2009
CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Supplemental Notes
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Contents The Domestic Nonfinancial Economy ........................................................ 1 Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment ............................................. 1 Business Inventories ........................................................................ 1 Federal Government......................................................................... 2
Exhibits Retail Sales....................................................................................... 3 Michigan Survey of Consumer Attitudes ........................................ 4 Nonfarm Inventory Investment ........................................................ 5 Federal Government Indicators........................................................ 6 The Domestic Financial Economy .............................................................. 2 Exhibits Selected Financial Market Quotations ............................................. 7 Commercial Bank Credit ................................................................. 8 The International Economy ........................................................................ 9 Trade in Goods and Services ........................................................... 9 Prices of Internationally Traded Goods ......................................... 12 Exhibits Trade in Goods and Services ........................................................... 9 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (chart) ................ 10 U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (table) .............. 11 Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports (chart) .................................... 13 Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports (table) .................................... 14
-ii-
Supplemental Notes The Domestic Nonfinancial Economy Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Nominal retail sales rose 1.3 percent in November, and revisions to the two previous months were largely offsetting. Sales in the retail control category, which excludes sales at auto dealers and building material and supply stores, and are the component of overall retail sales used by the BEA in constructing the national accounts, moved up 0.5 percent. The gains were fairly widespread across establishment types but were especially robust at general merchandise stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliance stores, and nonstore retailers. Folding in our forecast for November PCE prices, we estimate that real PCE control rose 0.4 percent last month, the sixth consecutive monthly gain. The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment moved up in early December, as assessments of current conditions were more favorable than in November. The December sentiment reading remained within the range of values observed over the past 6 months. The preliminary survey results for median inflation expectations of households in the Reuters/Michigan sample—both over the next 12 months and over the next 5 to 10 years—moved down noticeably. At 2.1 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, these early December readings were the lowest since March. Business Inventories Folding in a small decline in the book-value of retail inventories (excluding motor vehicles and parts), the combined book-value of inventories in the manufacturing and trade sector (excluding motor vehicles and parts) rose at an annual rate of $21 billion in October. The increase was the first in more than a year, suggesting some slowing in the pace of real inventory liquidation may be under way. Of course, because changes in book-value inventories can be heavily influenced by price changes that lead to a revaluation of existing stocks, these book-value data can differ substantially from real inventory changes. Despite the apparent restocking in October, businesses likely continued to make progress in better aligning their inventories with sales: The ratio of book-value inventories to sales (excluding motor vehicles) edged down further in October.
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-2-
Federal Government Based on data for defense spending in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November, real defense purchases declined last month following a drop in October. The unified federal budget remained wide over the first two months of fiscal 2010. Receipts were 13 percent lower in October-November than in the same period last year. Federal spending in October-November declined 4 percent relative to the same period a year ago, primarily because of a marked decrease in outlays for the TARP. Excluding the TARP payments, federal spending increased in the first two months of fiscal 2010 relative to a year earlier.
The Domestic Financial Economy (Exhibits attached)
-3Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Percent change from preceding comparable period) Category
Q1
Total real PCE1 Motor vehicles Goods ex. motor vehicles Services Ex. energy Memo: Real PCE control2 Nominal retail control3
2009 Q2 Annual rate
Q3
Sept.
2009 Oct. Nov. Monthly rate
.6
-.9
3.0
-.6
.3
n.a.
9.6 -2.8 -.3 -.2
-6.3 -5.9 .2 .7
53.7 3.4 1.0 1.1
-29.8 .7 .2 .1
8.9 .0 .2 .1
5.1 .4 n.a. n.a.
1.3 2.6
-2.5 -2.8
3.3 1.4
.7 .6
.2 .3
.4 .5
1. The values for Q3, September, October, and November are staff estimates based on available data. 2. Durables excluding motor vehicles, nondurables excluding gasoline, and food services. 3. Total sales less outlays at building material and supply stores, automobile and other motor vehicle dealers, and gasoline stations. n.a. Not available. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Change in Real PCE Goods Percent
0.8
0.8
2.8
0.6
0.6
2.0
0.4
0.4
Percent
2.8
NBER peak
Nov.
0.2 -0.0 -0.2
1.2
0.2
0.4
-0.2
1.2 Nov.
-0.0 6-month moving average
2.0
6-month moving average
-0.4 -1.2
0.4 -0.4
Monthly
-1.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-2.0
-2.0
-0.8
-0.8
-2.8
-2.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Change in Real PCE Services Percent
0.5
0.5
Percent
0.6
NBER peak 0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
6-month moving average
Oct.
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
6-month moving average
0.4
-0.2
0.6 0.4
Oct.
0.2 0.0
Monthly
-0.2 -0.4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
-0.2 -0.4
-4-
December 11, 2009
Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers Indexes of consumer sentiment (Not seasonally adjusted) 2009 May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.P
Composite of current and expected conditions1 Current conditions1 Expected conditions1
68.7 67.7 69.4
70.8 73.2 69.2
66.0 70.5 63.2
65.7 66.6 65.0
73.5 73.4 73.5
70.6 73.7 68.6
67.4 68.8 66.5
73.4 79.1 69.7
Personal financial situation Now compared with 12 months ago2 Expected in 12 months2
61 114
67 121
70 110
58 111
69 115
69 117
63 112
72 114
75 88
69 86
69 73
69 80
88 91
81 76
70 83
80 84
Appraisal of buying conditions Cars Large household appliances2 Houses
132 113 162
139 121 157
131 111 147
139 113 156
126 120 156
124 120 156
126 114 154
132 132 154
Expected unemployment change - next 12 months
132
133
136
124
110
120
124
113
Prob. household will lose a job - next 5 years
27
27
26
27
27
24
26
25
Expected inflation - next 12 months Mean Median
3.2 2.8
3.9 3.1
3.6 2.9
3.0 2.8
2.8 2.2
3.2 2.9
3.1 2.7
3.1 2.1
Expected inflation - next 5 to 10 years Mean Median
3.1 2.9
3.2 3.0
3.4 3.0
3.1 2.8
3.2 2.8
3.2 2.9
3.2 3.0
3.1 2.6
Category
Expected business conditions Next 12 months2 Next 5 years2
Note. Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent reporting ’good times’ (or ’better’) minus the percent reporting ’bad times’ (or ’worse’), plus 100. Expected change in unemployment is the fraction expecting unemployment to rise minus the fraction expecting unemployment to fall, plus 100. P Preliminary. 1. Feb. 1966 = 100. 2. Indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment.
Consumer sentiment 1966 = 100 120
1985 = 100 170 150
6
Percent 6
110
Reuters/Michigan (right scale)
100
130
90
110
5
Median, 5 to 10 years ahead
5
4
4
80
90
Dec. P
70
70 60
Conference Board (left scale)
Nov.
50
3 Dec. 2
50
P
3 2
Median, 12 months ahead 1
30 10
Expected inflation (Reuters/University of Michigan)
1
40 2002
2004
P Preliminary.
2006
2008
2010
30
0
2002
2004
P Preliminary.
2006
2008
2010
0
-5Nonfarm Inventory Investment (Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rate) 2009 Measure and sector
Q1
Q2
Q3
-114.9 -63.6 -51.3
-163.1e -48.1 -115.1
-140.3 -4.3 -135.9e
Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts Manufacturing Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts
-49.3 -28.9 -8.8 -11.6
-110.9 -39.8 -52.5 -18.6
-127.2 e -115.3 -53.3e -46.6 -51.9 e -52.7 e -22.0 -16.0
-164.2 e -82.0 e -51.1e e -31.1
Book-value inventory investment (current dollars) Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts Manufacturing Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts
-143.2 -77.3 -47.3 -18.6
-150.2 -63.6 -62.9 -23.7
-137.1 -62.2 -50.7 -24.2
-136.2 -74.9 -34.5 -26.8
Real inventory investment (chained 2005 dollars) Total nonfarm business Motor vehicles Nonfarm ex. motor vehicles
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
-136.4 -56.4 -54.1 -25.9
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
21.4 21.1 8.9 -8.7
n.a. Not available. ... Not applicable. e Staff estimate of real inventory investment based on revised book-value data. Source: For real inventory investment, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for book-value data, Census Bureau.
ISM Customers’ Inventories: Manufacturing
Inventory Ratios ex. Motor Vehicles Months
1.9 1.8
1.9
60
60
1.8
Staff flow-of-goods system
1.7
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
1.7 Oct.
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3 Oct.
1.2
1.2 Census book-value data
1.1
Index
2000 2000 2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2010 Note: Flow-of-goods system covers total industry ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to consumption. Census data cover manufacturing and trade ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to sales. Source: Census Bureau; staff calculation.
Nov. 1.1
35
2000 2000 2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2010 Note: A number above 50 indicates inventories are "too high." Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Manufacturing ISM Report on Business.
35
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Federal Government Indicators
Total Real Federal Purchases
Real Defense Spending
Percent change, annual rate
20
Current 4-quarter moving average
15
20 15
10
Billions of chained (2005) dollars
700
Unified (monthly) NIPA (quarterly)
650
Q3
700 650
Nov.
10
600
600
5
5
550
550
0
0
500
500
-5
-5
450
450
-10
400
Q3
-10
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Note: NIPA measure. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Note: Nominal unified defense spending is seasonally adjusted and deflated by BEA prices. NIPA defense purchases exclude consumption of fixed capital. Source: Monthly Treasury Statement; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Unified Outlays and Receipts
Unified Budget Deficit 4
Percent of GDP
Billions of dollars Billions of dollars (right axis) Percent of GDP (left axis)
2
400
0 -2
600 300
15
0
10
-300
Percent change from year earlier
20
20
Outlays Receipts
15 10
5
5 Nov.
-4
-600
0
-6
-900
-5
-5
-8
-1200
-10
-10
-1500
-15
-15
-1800
-20
-10 -12
Nov. 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Note: Adjusted for payment-timing shifts; cumulative deficit over the previous 12 months. Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.
Percent of GDP
50
50 Nov. 45
40
40
35
35
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.
2008
Oct. - Nov. 2009
55
45
30
-20
Recent Unified Federal Outlays and Receipts
Federal Debt Held by the Public 55
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Note: Adjusted for payment-timing shifts; based on cumulative outlays or receipts over the previous 12 months. Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.
0
30
Function or source
Billions of dollars
Outlays National defense Major transfers1 Other primary spending Net interest
566 118 318 94 36
-4.2 .8 17.0 -41.3 -14.0
Receipts Individual income and payroll taxes Corporate income taxes Other
269 236
-13.1 -14.1
-7 39
... 20.5
-297
...
Deficit (-)
Percent change*
Note: Adjusted for payment-timing shifts. * Relative to same year-earlier period. 1. Includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and income security programs. ... Not applicable. Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.
-7Selected Financial Market Quotations (One-day quotes in percent except as noted) 2008
Change to Dec. 10 from selected dates (percentage points)
2009
Instrument Sept. 12
Sept. 22
Nov. 3
Dec. 10
2008 Sept. 12
2009 Sept. 22
2009 Nov. 3
2.00
.13
.13
.13
-1.87
.00
.00
1.46 1.80
.11 .20
.06 .17
.02 .15
-1.44 -1.65
-.09 -.05
-.04 -.02
Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates)2 1-month 3-month
2.39 2.75
.18 .21
.16 .18
.15 .18
-2.24 -2.57
-.03 -.03
-.01 .00
Large negotiable CDs1 3-month 6-month
2.79 3.09
.25 .35
.22 .32
.22 .30
-2.57 -2.79
-.03 -.05
.00 -.02
Eurodollar deposits3 1-month 3-month
2.60 3.00
.40 .55
.30 .45
.32 .45
-2.28 -2.55
-.08 -.10
.02 .00
Bank prime rate
5.00
3.25
3.25
3.25
-1.75
.00
.00
Intermediate- and long-term U.S. Treasury4 2-year 5-year 10-year
2.24 2.97 3.93
.99 2.44 3.74
.93 2.37 3.73
.75 2.19 3.69
-1.49 -.78 -.24
-.24 -.25 -.05
-.18 -.18 -.04
U.S. Treasury indexed notes5 5-year 10-year
1.33 1.77
1.11 1.69
.70 1.48
.50 1.43
-.83 -.34
-.61 -.26
-.20 -.05
Municipal general obligations (Bond Buyer)6
4.54
4.20
4.39
4.19
-.35
-.01
-.20
4.26 4.36 6.62 7.22 10.66
3.67 4.12 5.11 6.36 9.90
3.62 4.06 5.12 6.25 9.48
3.61 3.92 5.02 6.06 9.38
-.65 -.44 -1.60 -1.16 -1.28
-.06 -.20 -.09 -.30 -.52
-.01 -.14 -.10 -.19 -.10
5.78 5.03
5.04 4.52
4.98 4.47
4.81 4.24
-.97 -.79
-.23 -.28
-.17 -.23
Short-term FOMC intended federal funds rate Treasury bills1 3-month 6-month
Private instruments 10-year swap 10-year FNMA7 10-year AA8 10-year BBB8 10-year high yield8 Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate) 30-year fixed 1-year adjustable
Record high
Change to Dec. 10 from selected dates (percent)
2009
Stock exchange index Dow Jones Industrial S&P 500 Composite Nasdaq Russell 2000 D.J. Total Stock Index
Level
Date
Sept. 22
Nov. 3
Dec. 10
Record high
2009 Sept. 22
2009 Nov. 3
14,165 1,565 5,049 856 15,807
10-9-07 10-9-07 3-10-00 7-13-07 10-9-07
9,830 1,072 2,146 621 11,083
9,772 1,045 2,057 571 10,729
10,406 1,102 2,191 595 11,296
-26.54 -29.57 -56.60 -30.43 -28.54
5.86 2.86 2.08 -4.08 1.93
6.49 5.45 6.49 4.34 5.29
1. Secondary market. 2. Financial commercial paper. 3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. eastern time. 4. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities. 5. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using all outstanding securities and adjusted for the carry effect. 6. Most recent Thursday quote. 7. Constant-maturity yields estimated from Fannie Mae domestic noncallable coupon securities. 8. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data. _______________________________________________________________________ NOTES: September 12, 2008, is the last business day before Lehman Brothers Holdings filed for bankruptcy. September 22, 2009, is the day before the September 2009 FOMC monetary policy announcement. November 3, 2009, is the day before the most recent FOMC monetary policy announcement. _______________________________________________________________________
-8Commercial Bank Credit (Percent change, annual rate, except as noted; seasonally adjusted) Type of credit
Total
Level1 Nov. 2009
2007
2008
H2 2008
H1 2009
Q3 2009
Oct. 2009
Nov. 2009
9.9
5.0
4.8
-5.5
-7.3
-12.0
-3.9
9,109
Loans2 Total Core To businesses Commercial and industrial Commercial real estate
10.6 9.5
4.4 5.0
3.0 3.2
-7.4 -4.7
-12.9 -9.7
-15.5 -14.4
-4.4 -6.6
6,777 6,021
19.0 9.4
16.3 6.0
14.1 3.2
-14.1 -1.6
-20.0 -5.6
-28.7 -11.5
-16.1 -10.0
1,361 1,654
To households Residential real estate Revolving home equity Closed-end mortgages Consumer Memo: Originated3 Other
5.3 5.6 5.3 6.8 6.5 18.7
-3.2 13.0 -8.0 7.1 5.6 .8
-5.4 12.9 -11.3 7.6 4.5 1.7
-2.0 6.5 -5.1 .0 -1.7 -25.4
-8.1 -5.2 -9.3 -3.4 -4.3 -37.0
-11.8 -5.1 -14.4 -2.7 -3.8 -24.8
2.2 -6.3 5.5 -7.2 -12.9 14.1
2,164 604 1,560 842 1,227 756
7.6 -5.5 28.0
6.9 16.4 -4.1
11.1 31.4 -12.0
.7 .5 1.0
10.7 20.5 -3.0
-1.6 .8 -5.4
-2.6 6.1 -16.0
2,332 1,413 919
Securities Total Treasury and agency Other4
Note: Yearly annual rates are Q4 to Q4; quarterly and monthly annual rates use corresponding average levels. Data have been adjusted to remove the effects of mark-to-market accounting rules (FAS 115) and the initial consolidation of certain variable interest entities (FIN 46). Data also account for the effects of nonbank structure activity of $5 billion or more. 1. Billions of dollars. Pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels. 2. Excludes interbank loans. 3. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks that retained recourse or servicing rights. 4. Includes private mortgage-backed securities; securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments; and any trading account securities that are not Treasury or agency securities. Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Total Loans at Commercial Banks
Change in Unused Commitments
Trillions of dollars Monthly
5.0
NBER peak
Quarterly
Basis points 30
NBER Peak
220
NBER Peak
Quarterly
Q4
20
4.5
200 10
4.0
Large*
C&I Loan Rate Spreads*
Percent
180 0 3.5
Q3
160
-10 Nov.
3.0 -20
Small**
140
2.5 -30 2.0 June Dec. 2007
June Dec. 2008
June Dec. 2009
*Large are the top 25 domestic commercial banks ranked by assets as of the last Call Report. **Small are all other domestic commercial banks. Source: Federal Reserve Board.
120 1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Source: Call Report data, adjusted for the effects of merger and failure activity involving large thrift institutions.
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
*The spread over market interest rate on an instrument of comparable maturity, adjusted for changes in nonprice loan characteristics. Source: Survey of Terms of Business Lending.
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The International Economy Trade in Goods and Services The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed to $32.9 billion in October, as a large increase in exports of goods and services more than offset a moderate increase in imports.
Trade in Goods and Services 2008 Nominal BOP Exports Imports Real NIPA Exports Imports Nominal BOP Net exports Goods, net Services, net
Annual rate Monthly rate 2009 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug. Sept. Oct. Percent change
-3.4 -7.3
-40.7 -55.4
-3.4 -6.8
-29.9 -36.4
-695.9 -840.2 144.3
-369.6 -496.1 126.5
-.8 -9.9
.3 -.5
2.8 5.6
2.6 .4
-4.1 17.0 ... -14.7 20.8 ... Billions of dollars
... ...
... ...
-35.7 -47.4 11.7
-32.9 -44.8 11.9
-325.0 -461.9 137.0
24.8 37.2
-389.5 -528.6 139.0
-30.3 -42.0 11.7
n.a. Not available. ... Not applicable. BOP Balance of payments. NIPA National income and product accounts. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau.
The value of exports of goods and services jumped up 2.6 percent in October, following a similar-sized gain in September. The October increase was widely spread across major categories of exports. Capital goods and consumer goods recorded particularly large gains. The increase in consumer goods was importantly boosted by pharmaceuticals and artwork, two of the more volatile categories of exports.
-10-
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (Quarterly) Contribution of Net Exports to Growth of Real Gross Domestic Product
Trade Balance Billions of dollars, annual rate
Percentage points, annual rate
0
3.5 3.0
-100
2.5
-200
2.0
October
-300
1.5
-400
1.0
-500
0.5 0.0
-600
-0.5 -700
-1.0
-800
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
-900
Selected Exports
-1.5
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
-2.0
Selected Imports Billions of dollars, annual rate
Billions of dollars, annual rate
600
600
550
550
500
500
Consumer goods
450
450
400
400 Capital goods
Capital goods ex. aircraft
350
350
300
300
250
250 Industrial supplies
200
200
Industrial supplies 150 Consumer goods
Oil
Aircraft
2000
2002
2004
150
2006
2008
100
100
50
50
0
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau.
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
0
-11-
U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (Billions of dollars; annual rate, balance of payments basis) Change1
Levels Exports of goods and services Goods exports Gold Other goods
2009 2009 Q2 Q3 Sept. Oct. 1485.6 1570.1 1600.6 1642.1
2009 2009 Q2 Q3 Sept. Oct. -3.2 84.5 43.5 41.5
984.5 1055.6 1083.6 1122.5 12.3 14.3 15.0 16.8 972.2 1041.4 1068.6 1105.7
-13.0 -1.5 -11.4
71.1 2.0 69.1
41.4 -.2 41.6
38.9 1.8 37.1
Capital goods Aircraft & parts Computers & accessories Semiconductors Other capital goods
373.1 73.4 35.5 35.0 229.2
382.2 70.4 37.4 38.5 235.9
390.1 73.5 36.5 38.2 241.9
404.6 75.8 39.6 41.6 247.7
-20.7 -5.6 -1.4 1.6 -15.3
9.1 -3.0 1.9 3.5 6.7
19.7 11.9 -.2 -.6 8.6
14.5 2.3 3.1 3.4 5.7
Automotive Ind. supplies (ex. ag., gold) Consumer goods Agricultural All other goods
66.7 249.8 144.2 101.0 37.4
86.4 283.3 150.0 99.0 40.4
90.1 297.0 153.1 97.0 41.3
95.1 300.4 165.0 98.9 41.6
-3.4 9.6 -1.8 6.6 -1.7
19.7 33.5 5.8 -1.9 3.0
2.6 16.5 5.5 -4.2 18.5
5.0 3.5 11.9 1.9 .4
501.1
514.5
517.0
519.6
9.8
13.4
2.0
2.6
1810.6 1959.7 2028.4 2037.3
-47.8
149.1
107.5
8.9
1446.5 1584.2 1652.2 1660.3 227.8 275.5 305.6 273.9 8.4 8.8 8.5 10.5 1210.3 1299.9 1338.1 1375.9
-47.2 18.9 1.1 -67.2
137.7 47.7 .4 89.6
106.0 52.5 .7 52.8
8.1 -31.7 2.0 37.8
Services exports Imports of goods and services Goods imports Oil Gold Other goods Capital goods Aircraft & parts Computers & accessories Semiconductors Other capital goods
345.6 31.4 84.4 20.4 209.4
364.2 29.1 95.0 22.2 217.9
370.9 28.8 96.0 22.6 223.5
384.4 30.9 106.2 24.4 222.9
-20.7 1.2 3.8 1.4 -27.1
18.6 -2.3 10.6 1.8 8.4
10.3 3.8 1.9 -.2 4.8
13.5 2.1 10.2 1.8 -.6
Automotive Ind. supplies (ex. oil, gold) Consumer goods Foods, feeds, beverages All other goods
126.8 178.7 419.1 81.5 58.6
178.0 190.5 422.6 81.0 63.6
196.1 200.2 424.6 80.4 65.7
201.1 208.4 436.5 82.9 62.5
-2.6 -34.2 -4.4 -.2 -5.1
51.2 11.8 3.5 -.5 5.1
19.6 11.2 6.5 -.2 5.3
5.0 8.1 11.9 2.5 -3.2
364.1
375.5
376.2
377.0
-.7
11.3
1.5
.8
11.62 53.70
11.36 66.25
12.12 69.07
10.92 68.70
-2.16 12.10
-.26 12.55
1.70 2.55
-1.20 -.37
Services imports Memo: Oil quantity (mb/d) Oil import price ($/bbl)
1. Change from previous quarter or month. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau.
-12-
The value of imports of goods and services rose only 0.4 percent in October, after shooting up 5.6 percent in September, as a robust increase in imports of non-oil goods was muted by a large decline in oil imports (both on account of lower volumes as well as a decrease in price). The increase in non-oil imports was broadbased across categories of goods. Capital goods grew strongly, supported by a jump in imports of computers. Imports of consumer goods also contributed significantly to the overall increase, led by higher imports of pharmaceutical goods. Prices of Internationally Traded Goods Non-oil imports. In November, prices of core imports rose 0.4 percent, about in line with the growth over previous months. Whereas prices for finished goods were unchanged, prices for material-intensive goods moved up 1.2 percent, with both foods and industrial supplies prices rising at rates similar to October. Taking the average of prices in October and November, core import prices have risen at an annual rate of 5.5 percent, fueled by material-intensive goods price growth of 16 percent and more mild growth in finished goods prices. Oil. The BLS price index for imported oil moved higher for the second straight month in November, rising 6.2 percent for the month as a whole. This increase came on the heels of a 2 percent increase in October, revised up a full percentage point from the previous release. Exports. Core export prices rose a brisk 1 percent in November. Material-intensive goods were solely responsible for the price growth. Prices for agricultural exports rose 3.7 percent, reversing the previous two months’ price declines. Nonagricultural industrial supplies prices rose 1.7 percent, much faster than in the two previous months. Prices for finished goods were flat on net, with a small increase in the price for consumer goods counterbalanced by a small decline in the price of capital goods excluding computers and semiconductors. In October and November on average, prices for core exported goods have risen at an annual rate of 2.9 percent.
-13-
Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports Merchandise Imports
Categories of Core Imports 12-month percent change
12-month percent change
10
17
8
12
6 Core goods
Material-intensive goods
4
7 Finished goods
2
2
0
-3
-2 -8
-4
Non-oil goods
-13
-6 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
-8
2000
Oil
2002
2004
2006
2008
-18
Natural Gas Dollars per barrel
Spot West Texas Intermediate
Import unit value 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
145 135 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 5
Merchandise Exports
Core goods
Total goods
2002
2000 = 100
Dollars per million Btu
Import price index (left scale)
250
30 25
200
20
150
15
100
10
50
5
Spot Henry Hub (right scale)
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
0
Categories of Core Exports 12-month percent change
2000
300
2004
2006
2008
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wall Street Journal; Commodity Research Bureau.
12-month percent change
25 20 15
Material-intensive goods
10 5
Finished goods
0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
-25
-14-
Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports (Percentage change from previous period) Annual rate 2009 Q2 Q3 Q4e Merchandise imports Oil Non-oil Core goods1
Monthly rate 2009 Sept. Oct. Nov.
----------------------- BLS prices --------------------14.9 12.0 9.6 .2 .8 1.7 246.9 88.3 32.3 -.6 2.0 6.2 -3.3 1.1 5.1 .3 .6 .7 -1.2
2.4
5.5
.7
.5
.4
Finished goods Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. Automotive products Consumer goods
-.5 -1.4 .0 -.1
.4 .4 2.0 -.4
1.1 .9 2.0 .6
.1 .0 .2 .0
.2 .2 .3 .2
.0 .1 .1 -.1
Material-intensive goods Foods, feeds, beverages Industrial supplies ex. fuels
-2.9 .8 -4.2
7.1 1.0 8.7
16.1 5.3 19.4
2.2 .5 2.7
1.3 .3 1.6
1.2 .5 1.4
-4.2 7.1 -74.8
.3 -5.4 -39.3
-.8 4.8 116.5
.0 .4 -14.1
-.4 .4 17.1
.4 .5 30.0
2.4
3.4
2.7
-.2
.2
.8
2.6
4.1
2.9
-.3
.1
1.0
Finished goods Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. Automotive products Consumer goods
.4 2.5 -.6 -3.9
2.1 2.0 -.5 4.3
.7 .7 .6 .9
.0 .0 .1 .1
.1 .2 .1 .0
-.0 -.1 .0 .2
Material-intensive goods Agricultural products Industrial supplies ex. ag.
5.3 19.6 1.3
6.5 -7.8 12.1
5.4 -3.2 8.7
-.7 -2.9 .1
.2 -.7 .5
2.2 3.7 1.7
-3.4 12.3
-1.7 -.8
9.3 2.7
.7 .1
.2 .1
3.3 .7
Computers Semiconductors Natural gas Merchandise exports Core goods2
Computers Semiconductors
--------------------- NIPA prices --------------------Chain price index Imports of goods & services Non-oil merchandise Core goods1
4.2 -3.9 -2.3
11.3 .5 1.2
----
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
Exports of goods & services Total merchandise Core goods2
.1 1.9 2.4
4.7 4.8 5.2
----
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
1. Excludes computers, semiconductors, and natural gas. 2. Excludes computers and semiconductors. e Estimate based on average of two months. n.a. Not available. ... Not applicable. BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics. NIPA National income and product accounts. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (2009, December 15). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_20091216_part3
@misc{wtfs_greenbook_20091216_part3,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
year = {2009},
month = {Dec},
howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_20091216_part3},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}