Speech

Jobs and Trade EuropeanEconomicsandFinancialCentre(EEFC)Conference London,England September6,2007 International trade has long been a divisive Perhapssensingarisingtideofdisapproval issue, both in the United States and in amongAmericans,theU.S.Congresshasresponded other countries around the world. While withanumberofmeasuresleaningtowardecomany, including the vast majority of econ- nomicisolation.Initsfirstthreemonths,the110th omists, support free trade on the ground that it Congressintroducedmorethanadozenpieces oflegislationrestrictingtradewithChina improves an economy’s overall well-being, those (Aldonasetal.,2007).SinceAprilofthisyear, who disagree hold that it accomplishes precisely boththeHouseofRepresentativesandthe the opposite: On this opposing view, trade Senatehaveconvenednumeroushearingsto destroysjobsandlowerswages,especiallyamong examinetheeconomicimplicationsoftrade,espethe most vulnerable members of society. On its ciallyasitrelatestoChina.1Congresshasalso face, the job destruction issue cannot be correct failedtorenewthepolicyoftradepromotion for the U.S. economy, which has clearly generauthority,alsoknownasfast-trackauthority, atedjobstoreplacethoselostbecauseofimports. whichpermitsthepresidenttonegotiatetrade The U.S. economy is fully employed, with an agreementsthattheCongresscaneitherapprove unemployment rate below 5 percent. orreject,butnotamend.Thatauthorityexpired RecentevidencesuggeststhatthejobdestruconJuly1ofthisyear. tionviewisheldbyasubstantialnumberofpeo- Mypurposetodayistoreviewsomeofthe ple.ApolltakenattheendoflastyearbythePew ideassurroundingthedebateovertradeandthe ResearchCenterforthePeopleandthePress labormarketandprovideanevaluationinlight foundthat,amongAmericans,48percentbelieved oftherecentevidenceontheperformanceofthe thatfree-tradeagreementsledtojoblossesinthe U.S.economy. UnitedStates,whileonly12percentthoughtthat Beforeproceeding,Iwanttoemphasizethat free-tradeagreementscreatedjobs.Thepollalso theviewsIexpressherearemineanddonot foundthat44percentofrespondentsbelievethat necessarilyreflectofficialpositionsoftheFederal freetradelowerswagesforAmericanworkers, ReserveSystem.Ithankmycolleaguesatthe while11percentbelieveitraiseswages(Pew FederalReserveBankofSt.Louisfortheircomments,especiallyChristopherH.Wheeler, ResearchCenterforthePeopleandthePress, researchofficer,whoprovidedspecialassistance. 2006).AFinancialTimes-Harrispollreleasedin However,Iretainfullresponsibilityforerrors. Julyofthisyearfoundsimilaropinionsamong manyEuropeans.Morethan50percentofthose polledinGreatBritain,France,ItalyandSpain THEORETICAL BACKGROUND feltthatglobalizationhashadanegativeeffect ontheircountries.Lessthanathirdresponded Thebasicprincipleunderlyinginternational thatglobalizationhashadapositiveeffect. tradeisthis:Whencountriesspecializeinthe 1 TheU.S.Senateheldahearingentitled“Is‘FreeTrade’Working?”onApril18,2007and“U.S.TradeRelationswithChina”onJuly25,2007. TheHousehelda“HearingonLegislationRelatedtoTradewithChina”onAug.2,2007. 1

INTERNATIONALTRADEANDFINANCE productionofthegoodsandservicestheypro- outcomesoftradeliberalization,then,isawidenduceparticularlywellandtradeforthosethey ingoftheearningsdistributioninthedeveloped producerelativelylessefficiently,allcountries world.Manyarerightlyconcernedaboutthis canbemadebetteroff,atleastinaggregate. possibility.Withinrecentdecades,boththe Interestingly,whilemostfindtheideaofcom- UnitedStatesandGreatBritainhaveseenthe parativeadvantageandgainsfromtradeobvious extentofinequalityintheirwagedistributions inthecaseofindividuals—weare,afterall,much increasesharply. betteroffspecializingandtradingthanwewould Formaltradetheorydoesnot,however, beifwehadtoproduceeverythingforourselves— positwhatsomanyintheworld’sdeveloped manyremainskepticaloftrade’sbenefitsfor economiesseemtobelieve:thattradeleadsto countries.Thisbasicprinciple,however,applies netjoblossesandloweraveragewages.Thiscontonationsjustasitdoestoindividualhouseholds cernhaslongbeenraisedwithimports,butithas asproducersandconsumers. beenmagnifiedbytheperceivedriseinrecent Consumersandworkersalsostandtogain yearsofoffshoreproduction,whichThomas fromtradethroughincreasedcompetition.Recent Friedmandescribeswithsomanycompelling researchhasdemonstratedthat,byincreasing anecdotesinhisrecentbook,TheWorldIsFlat. competitionamongproducers,tradeforcesan Someofthemostrecentconcerns,infact,hold economy’sinefficientfirmsoutofthemarket, thatthedevelopedworld’shigh-wagejobs,such thusspurringareallocationoflaborfromlessasthoseinbusinessservices,arenowatriskof productivetomore-productiveemployers beingshippedoverseas. (Bernardetal.,2007).Evidenceofthisproduc- AretradeandoffshoringdestroyingAmerican tivityeffectisalsoapparentincross-country jobsandreducingwagesintheUnitedStates? studiesthatfindthateconomicgrowthisstrongly Letmebeginwithabriefoverviewofthestateof tiedtoopennesstotrade(Edwards,1998). theU.S.labormarket. Tradetheoryalsoasserts,however,thatwithin anygivencountry,thegainsfromtrademaybe unevenlydistributed.Tobesure,thevastmajor- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ityofindividualsundoubtedlygainforthereasons U.S. LABOR MARKET Ihavejustdescribed.Yet,therewillbesome workerswhoexperiencelabormarketdisrup- Overall,mostindicatorssuggestthattheU.S. tionsastheirjobsareeliminatedduetorising labormarketisstrong.Followingaperiodof importsortheoffshoringofproductionfacilities. sluggishgrowthbetweenJune2000andAugust Theseindividualsclearlysuffer,andtheirlosses 2003,aperiodthatsawpayrollemploymentin intermsofjobopportunities,incomeandmorale theUnitedStatesfallbymorethan2million,the canbebothsubstantialandlong-lived. U.S.economyhassincecreated,onaverage, Fordeveloped,capital-abundantcountries 167,000netnewjobspermonth.Thisfigure liketheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom, translatesintoanaveragegrowthrateinthenumstandardtradetheorysuggeststhattradewith berofnon-farmjobsintheU.S.ofapproximately thedevelopingworldwillhaveitsgreatestnega- 1.6percentperyear,whichisnotsubstantially tiveeffectontheless-skilledbecausedeveloping differentfromtheaveragesustainedduringthe economiessuchasChinaandIndiaarerelatively secondhalfofthetwentiethcentury.Thecurrent abundantinthattypeoflabor.TheUnitedStates, unemploymentrateisbelow5percent,compared forexample,importslargequantitiesofapparel, toanaverageof6percentoverthepastquarter furnitureandtoysfromChina,whileexporting century. significantquantitiesofcivilianaircraftand Justlookingat2007,thenumbershavenot semi-conductors(U.S.CensusBureau,Foreign beenquiteasrobust,buttheyarefarfromslow. TradeStatistics).Oneofthepossiblelabormarket BetweenJanuaryandJulyofthisyear,theU.S. 2

JobsandTrade economyhasaveragedajobcreationrateof theU.S.labormarketandtheeconomyasa 132,000jobspermonth,orabout1.2percentat wholewereexpanding.Themiddleperiod,of anannualrate.Giventhattheunemployment course,reflectstherecessionandsluggishjob ratehashoveredaround4.5percentsinceJanuary, marketfollowingtherecession. andhasremainedbelow5percentformuchof Oneofthemostsalientfeaturesofthedata thelasttwoyears,theeconomyseemstobeoper- fromthesethreeperiodsisthestrongpositive atingnearfullemployment.Ratherthanbeinga associationbetweentherateofjobgrowthand signofaweakeningeconomy,therecentslow- therateofimportgrowth.Thehighestrateswere downintherateofjobcreationisalmostcertainly seenduringthelatterhalfofthe1990s,when relatedtoaslowingoflaborforcegrowthasthe employmentgrowthaveraged241,000jobsper baby-boomgenerationreachesretirementage. month,anannualrateof2.4percent,andthe Recentfiguresonearningsarealsopositive. realvalueofimportsofgoodsandservicesgrew Withinthelast12months,averagehourlyearn- atanaverageannualrateof10.4percent.Since ingsintheprivate,non-farmsectorhaveincreased Januaryof2004,thoserateshavebeensomewhat bynearly4percentinnominaltermsand1.7 slower,withthelabormarketcreating182,000 percentafteraccountingforinflation.Thisdevel- jobspermonthandimportsrisingatanaverage opmentisparticularlyencouragingfollowinga annualrateof7.2percent. four-yearperiodinwhichaveragerealhourly Comparethesefigureswiththosefromour compensationshowedessentiallynogrowth. periodofslowgrowth.Between2000and2003, theU.S.economylost5,000jobspermonth,on average,andimportsexpandedatanannualrate EVIDENCE ON TRADE AND JOB of4.4percent.Suchevidence,Icontend,provides littlesupporttothenotionthatrisingimports GROWTH havecomeattheexpenseofU.S.jobs. Theevidenceclearlypointstoalargelyfavor- Additionalevidence,basedonmoredetailed ablelabormarket.Giventhat,overthepastfour empiricalanalyses,demonstratesasimilarpoint. years,U.S.tradevolumeshavesteadilyincreased, A2004studybyMartinBailyandRobertLawrence withthesumofimportsandexportsrisingfrom findsthat,whiletheU.S.waslosingmanymanu- 24.7percentofGDPinthethirdquarterof2003 facturingjobsbetween2000and2003,theshare to29percentinthesecondquarterofthisyear, ofimportsinU.S.domesticspendingongoods thedatadonotsupporttheclaimthattradeis actuallydecreasedfrom31.8percentto31.4perdestroyingAmericanjobs.Moreprecisely,U.S. cent(BailyandLawrence,2004). employmentishigh,despitesignificantjob AstudybyeconomistsattheFederalReserve lossesinindustriesimpactedbyimports.Employ- BankofNewYorkfindsthatdataongrossjob mentsecurityishigh,eventhoughjobsecurity destructionshowlittleevidencethatrisingtrade inindustriesaffectedbyimportsisnot.Ina lowersU.S.employment.Althoughtherateof strongaggregatejobmarket,displacedworkers jobdestructionincreasedduringthe2001recessoonfindnewjobs. sion,justasittypicallydoesduringeconomic Acasualreadingoftheevidenceindicates downturns,thatratehassincefallentolevels thatthebusinesscycleisfarmoreimportant belowthosesustainedduringtherapidlyexpandthantradeindeterminingtherateatwhichthe inglabormarketofthe1990s(Groshenetal., U.S.labormarketisgainingorlosingjobs.To 2005). examinetrendsinbothinternationaltradeand Noneofthesefindingsisintendedtoimply U.S.employmentgrowthsince1995,consider thattradeandoffshoreproductionhavenothad threeperiods:(i)1995to1999,(ii)2000to2003, anynegativeinfluenceonU.S.employment.The and(iii)2004tothepresent.Thefirstandthird sameNewYorkFedstudyestimatesthat,over periodsaremeanttorepresenttimeswhenboth thepasttwodecades,joblossesfromtheincreas- 3

INTERNATIONALTRADEANDFINANCE inglynegativenetexportbalancemighthave Thatis,astradevolumeshaveincreased,have amountedtoasmuchas2.4percentoftotalU.S. weseenthedistributionofjobsshifttowardlower employmentintheyear2003,whenthelabor payingpositions?Ifwelookatsomerecentfigures marketwasnearitsmostrecentbottom(Groshen describingthegrowthofjobswithincertainindusetal.,2005).Thisestimate,ofcourse,isbased triesandoccupationsintheUnitedStates,we purelyonasimplecalculationofhowmany findlittlesupportforthiscontention.Since2004, AmericanjobsarerepresentedbytheU.S.net thefastestgrowingbroadoccupationalcategory, exportbalanceingoodsandservices.Asthe bothinpercentagetermsaswellasabsolutenumauthorsofthatstudystress,lookingattheesti- berofjobs,wasbusinessandfinancialoperations, matedjoblossbyitselfdoesnotaccountforany whichincludesaccountants,auditorsandfinanofthelikelybenefitsoftrade,suchasimproved cialanalysts.Thisoccupationgrewbymorethan efficiencyandhigherrealincomesforU.S. 13percentbetweenMay2004and2006,adding workers,bothofwhichmayboostdomestic nearly700,000jobs.Sizablejobgainswerealso employment.Inspiteofthisomission,theirnum- registeredincomputerandmathematicalscience bersstillsuggestthattrade-relatedjobdestruction occupations;healthcarepractitioners;education isminorinthecontextofthetotalU.S.labor trainingandlibraryservice;life,physical,and market. socialsciences;andlegalservices,whichcollec- Somemaystillarguethatthebusinesscycle tivelyaddednearly1millionjobsoverthissame doesnotfullyaccountforthelossofmanufac- period.Medianhourlyearningsineachofthese turingemployment.Afterall,eventhoughU.S. occupationalgroupsexceedtheoverallU.S. employmenthasincreasedbynearly2million median.Evidently,inatimeofrisinginternaoverthepastyear,theeconomyhaslost175,000 tionaltrade,therehasbeenstrongemployment manufacturingjobs.Isitpossiblethattradeand growthattheupperendofthepayscale. offshoringhavecausedtheselosses? Certainlow-wagejobshavealsoshown ArecentpaperbytheeconomistEdLeamer growth.Thenumberofjobsinfoodpreparation, (Leamer,2007)suggeststhattheanswerislargely suchascooksandwaiters,aswellasthosein “no.”Toarriveatthisconclusion,Leamercom- sales,whichincludescashiersandotherretail pareschangesindomesticdemandforgoodsto establishmentemployees,expandedbymore thedomesticgrowthofproductivityandtherise than1.1millionbetween2004and2006.Median ofmanufacturingimportsinordertoexplain earningsinthesesectorsoftheAmericaneconchangesinU.S.manufacturingemployment.All omyarebelowthenationalmedian.Ofcourse, elseheldconstant,ariseindomesticdemand thegrowthofthesetypesofjobsmayberelated shouldincreaseemployment,whereasrising totheoverallstrengthoftheU.S.economy.Indeed, productivitygrowthandimportsshouldboth theextenttowhichretailestablishmentsand decreaseit.Between1970and2005,theproduc- restaurantsareabletoexpandtheirpayrolls tivityeffectondurablemanufacturingemploy- likelydependsdirectlyonoverallpersonal mentwasroughly11timeslargerthantheeffect incomegrowth.Oneofthereasonswehaveseen associatedwithrisingimports.Inthenon-durables growthinlow-wagesectors,then,maybethe sector,theratiowasevenlarger:Theestimated stronggrowthofjobsinhigh-wagesectors. productivityeffectonemploymentwas30times Datacoveringindustriesoverthepast12 thatoftheeffectfromtrade.Thelossofmanu- monthsdemonstrateasimilarpattern.Since facturingjobs,whichhasbeenoccurringinthe Julyoflastyear,theU.S.economyhasadded UnitedStatesfordecades,seemstohaveitsroots nearly1.9millionjobs,withthelargestgains inthegrowthofproductivityratherthaninthe comingintwohigh-wagesectors—education riseofimports. andhealthservices,andprofessionalandbusi- Isthereanyevidencethattradehasharmed nessservices—andonelow-wagesector—leisure U.S.workersbydestroyinghigh-payingjobs? andhospitality.Together,thesethreeindustries 4

JobsandTrade accountedfornearly70percentofthejobscreated Thisprocesshasbeenparticularlystriking overthe12monthsendingJuly2007. amongexporters.Althoughthevastmajorityof thefirmsengagedinexportactivityintheUnited Statestendtobesmallintermsoftotalemploy- EVIDENCE ON TRADE, ment,morethan70percentofthevalueofU.S. exportstotherestoftheworldisaccountedfor PRODUCTIVITY, AND WAGES byrelativelylargeventures,namelythosewith Whilejobgrowthisclearlyafundamental morethan500employees(U.S.CensusBureau, measureoflabor-marketperformance,many 2007).Theselargefirmstendtobecharacterized economistswouldunderscorethegrowthofpro- bysignificantcapitalintensityandhighlevelsof ductivityasanevenstrongergaugeofanecon- productivityandpayhigherwages,onaverage, omy’swell-being.Indeed,itislargelythrough thantheirsmallercounterparts.Thedominant productivitygrowth—theriseinthequantityof positionoftheselargeproducershasdeveloped outputproducedperunitofinputused—that overtimeasadirectresultofthereallocationof incomesandlivingstandardsimproveovertime. resourcesfromless-efficientorganizationsto Tradeturnsouttobeasignificantdriverof more-efficientones.Moreover,estimatessuggest productivitygrowth.Inpart,thisconnectionis thatthisprocesshasdeliveredenormousproductheresultofthefactthatdevelopednationslike tivitybenefitstotheU.S.economy.Arecent theUnitedStatesimportgoodsproducedbyrel- studyhasestimatedthatproductivereallocation mayaccountforasmuchas40percentofthe ativelylow-productivitysectors,suchasapparel, growthintotalfactorproductivityamongU.S. textilesandfurniture,andexportgoodsandservmanufacturersduringthe1980sandearly1990s icesinrelativelyhigh-productivitysectors,includ- (BernardandJensen,2004). ingprofessionalandbusinessservicesandaircraft. Thispatternleadstoareallocationoflaborfrom low-tohigh-productivityworkasemployment POLICIES TO ADDRESS TRADE’S decreasesinindustriescomparativelydisadvantagedandexpandsinindustriescomparatively LOSERS advantaged.Evidenceofthisprocessisapparent Althoughtheirnumbersarerelativelysmall inboththeemploymenttrendsIhavealready comparedtothesizeoftheU.S.economy,many discussed,especiallythegrowthofprofessional workershavebeendisplacedbytrade.Estimates andbusinessserviceemployment,aswellasfrom suggestthat,between2000and2003,asmanyas researchonplant-leveldynamics.Arecentstudy 300,000servicejobs(Garner,2004)andanother hasshownthat,asindustriesintheUnitedStates 314,000manufacturingjobs(BailyandLawrence, haveseengreaterimportpenetrationfromless 2004)mayhavebeenlostduetotrade.These developedeconomies,producerswithinthose individuals,inmanyinstances,experiencesigindustriesaremorelikelytoswitchtothepro- nificantlosses.Studieshaveshown,forexample, ductionofmorecapital-intensiveproducts.That thatre-employmentratestendtobeloweramong is,theyexitlow-productivitysectorsandenter workersdisplacedbytradethanthosewhoare high-productivityones(Bernardetal.,2006). unemployedforotherreasons(Kletzer,2005). Thereallocationoflaborfromlow-tohigh- Studiesalsoshowthat,amongthosewhodo productivityfirmsalsotakesplacewithinindus- eventuallyfindnewjobs,abouttwo-thirdsearn tries.Thus,eventhoughrisingimportsmay lessontheirnewjobthanonthejobtheylost produceemploymentlosseswithinanindustry, (Kletzer,2005). sayprimaryorfabricatedmetals,workersinthat Ratherthanplacefurtherlimitationson sectortend,overtime,tobecomeconcentrated trade,whichwouldsurelyhampereconomic amongthemostproductiveproducers. growth,policymakersshouldmakesurethat 5

INTERNATIONALTRADEANDFINANCE workerswhoaredisplacedbytradereceivethe thosewhohavebeendisplacedby,say,technoassistancetheyneedinordertofindnewwork. logicalchange.Improvingprogramsthathelpall TheUnitedStatesenacteditsTradeAdjustment displacedworkersmoveontonewjobsmay Assistanceprogramin1962toofferworkerswho helptopersuadeAmericansthatfreetradeis havebeendisplacedbytradebothincomeassisworthwhile. tanceandtraininginanefforttohelpthemmake Iwouldalsoliketostresstwootherpolicies thetransitiontoanewlineofwork.Certain thatarecrucialtothewell-beingoftheAmerican workersmay,instead,optforAlternativeTrade laborforce.First,economiesmustcontinueto AdjustmentAssistance,whichprovideswage promoteeducationatalllevels,includingexpandinsuranceforworkerswhomoveontojobsthat ingopportunitiesforpost-secondaryeducation. paylessthanwhattheyhadreceivedbeforebeing Notonlyarehighlyeducatedindividualsbetter displaced.TheUnitedStatesalsohastwoaddipreparedtosucceedinaninformationtechnology tionalprogramsaimedathelpingunemployed dominatedworkplace,theyalsoexperiencelower workersfindjobs:unemploymentinsurance(UI), whichprovidesincomesupport,andtheWork- ratesofjobdisplacement,shorterdurationsof forceInvestmentAct,whichhelpsworkerspay unemploymentandgreaterwagegrowthover fortraining. time(BureauofLaborStatistics).Second,policy- Suchprogramsarecertainlyconstructive, makersshouldcontinuetopursuemacroeconomic butmorecouldprobablybedonetoassistthose strategiesthatensurefullemploymentandprice whohavelostajob.TradeAdjustmentAssistance stability.Asmycommentsearlierhaveindicated, currentlycoversworkerswholosejobsdueto forcountriesliketheUnitedStatesandthe importsofgoods,butoffersnocoveragefor UnitedKingdom,theemploymentsituationis workersdisplacedbyimportsofservices.Given largelydeterminedbythestateofthedomestic thatthemajorityoftheAmericanworkforceis macroeconomy. employedinservices,andrecenttrendssuggest thatfuturetrade-relatedworkerdisplacements maycomeincreasinglyfromtheservicesector, CONCLUSION theprogramshouldprobablybeexpanded.There havealsobeencriticismsleveledattheoperation Duringthe1960sand1970s,manydevelopoftheprogrambasedonitshighrateofdenial, ingnationsfearedthatopeningtheireconomies whichstandsatroughlyathirdofallapplicants, totradewiththemoredevelopedworldwould anditsrathermodestsizewhencomparedtothe makethemworseoff(Freeman,1995).Yet,by volumeoftradeinwhichtheU.S.isengaged liberalizingtheirtradepolicies,manydeveloping (Mastel,2006).In2004,forexample,thefederal economies,includingSouthKorea,Taiwanand governmentallocated1.3billiondollarstothe China,haveexperiencedlongperiodsofrapid program.Althoughlargeinanabsolutesense, economicgrowth(Krueger,2004). thisfigureissmallwhencomparedtothe$1.5 Withinrecentyears,asignificantanti-trade trillionofimportsand$23.6billioncollectedin sentimentseemstohaveemergedinthedeveltariffrevenueinthatyear. opedworld.Aspolicymakers,itisincumbent Inaddition,asChairmanBernankenotedin uponustomaintainacommitmenttofreeand remarksthreeyearsago,theprogramisconopentrade,whilehelpingthosewhoexperience foundedbythedifficultyofidentifyingworkers whohavebeendisplacedbytradeasopposedto lossesfromitfindnewopportunities.Indoing someotherreason(Bernanke,2004).Itisalso so,wehopetoensurecontinuedincreasesinour notclearwhyworkerswhohavebeendisplaced standardoflivingandpersuadegreaternumbers bytradeshouldreceivegreaterassistancethan ofpeoplethattradecanbebeneficialforeveryone. 6

JobsandTrade REFERENCES Groshen,EricaL.;Hobijn,BartandMcConnell, MargaretM.“U.S.JobsGainedandLostthrough Aldonas,GrantD.;Lawrence,RobertZ.and Trade:ANetMeasure.”FederalReserveBankof Slaughter,MatthewJ.“SucceedingintheGlobal NewYorkCurrentIssuesinEconomicsand Economy:ANewPolicyAgendafortheAmerican Finance,2005,11(8),pp.1-7. Worker.”FinancialServicesForumPolicyResearch, 2007. Kletzer,LoriG.“GlobalizationandJobLoss,From ManufacturingtoServices.”FederalReserveBank Autor,DavidH.;Katz,LawrenceF.andKearney, ofChicagoEconomicPerspectives,SecondQuarter MelissaS.“TrendsinU.S.WageInequality:Re- 2005,pp.38-46. AssessingtheRevisionists.”NBERWorkingPaper 11627,2005. Krueger,AnneO.“Trade,Jobs,andGrowth:Why YouCan’tHaveOneWithouttheOther.”Presented Baily,MartinNeilandLawrence,RobertZ.“What atReutersTrade,GlobalizationandOutsourcing HappenedtotheGreatU.S.JobMachine?TheRole Conference,NewYork,June15,2004. ofTradeandElectronicOffshoring.”Brookings PapersonEconomicActivity,2004,2,pp.211-70. Leamer,Edward.“AFlatWorld,aLevelPlaying Field,aSmallWorldAfterAll,orNoneofthe Bernanke,BenS.“TradeandJobs.”Presentedatthe Above?AReviewofThomasL.Friedman’sThe DistinguishedSpeakerSeries,FuquaSchoolof WorldIsFlat.”JournalofEconomicLiterature, Business,DukeUniversity,Durham,NC,March30, 2007,45(1),pp.83-126. 2004. Mastel,Greg.“WhyWeShouldExpandTrade Bernard,AndrewB.;Jensen,J.Bradford;Redding, AdjustmentAssistance.”Challenge,2006,49(4), StephenJ.andSchott,PeterK.“Firmsin pp.42-57. InternationalTrade.”NBERWorkingPaper13054, 2007. PewResearchCenterforthePeopleandthePress. “FreeTradeAgreementsGetaMixedReview.” Edwards,Sebastian.“Openness,Productivity,and December19,2006. Growth:WhatDoWeReallyKnow?”Economic Journal,March1998,108,pp.383-98. Freeman,Richard.“AreYourWagesSetinBeijing?” JournalofEconomicPerspectives,1995,9(3), pp.15-32. 7