speeches · April 6, 2025

Lecture by Governor Kugler on inflation dynamics and the Phillips curve - Federal Reserve Board

Adriana D. Kugler · Governor

April 07, 2025

Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve

Governor Adriana D. Kugler

At Ec10b Principles of Economics Lecture, Department of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

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Governor Adriana D. Kugler presents a lecture about inflation dynamics and the Phillips Curve to students in Harvard University's Ec10b Principles of Economics class on Monday, April 7, 2025.

In the lecture she discusses how pandemic-era inflation came in a series of waves: food, core goods, core services and housing. She then talks about the Phillips curve as a model to capture inflation dynamics. Finally, Governor Kugler explores additional augmentations to the Phillips curve model that could help better explain the most recent inflation episode.

Here are the slides from her presentation.

Title slide

Slide 1. Roadmap of Lecture

Slide 2. A Bird’s Eye View of Inflation

Slide 3. A Look at Inflation Data in the Long-Run

Slide 4. Inflation Waves

Slide 5. Waves in Inflation Components

Slide 6. Food Inflation

Slide 7. Core Goods Inflation

Slide 8. Rotation to Goods

Slide 9. Indexes of Shortages

Slide 10. Core Services ex Housing Inflation

Slide 11. Core Services ex. Housing Inflation and Wages

Slide 12. Housing Services Inflation

Slide 13. Housing Services Inflation and New Rents

Slide 14. The Phillips Curve(s)

Slide 15. Wage Phillips Curve

Slide 16. Expectations Augmented Phillips Curve

Slide 17. Some Empirical Results

Slide 18. The Accelerationist Phillips Curve: 1960-1986

Slide 19. Baseline Model

Slide 20. The Accelerationist Phillips Curve: 1987-2019

Slide 21. Inflation and Long-Run Inflation Expectations

Slide 22. Baseline Phillips Curve: 1960-1986

Slide 23. Baseline Phillips Curve: 1987-2019

Slide 24. Update of Baseline Model

Slide 25. Additional Empirical Results

Slide 26. Dynamic Sim: Baseline Model

Slide 27. Dynamic Sim: V/U Model

Slide 28. Dynamic Sim: Shortage Model

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Accessible Version

Cite this document
APA
Adriana D. Kugler (2025, April 6). Lecture by Governor Kugler on inflation dynamics and the Phillips curve - Federal Reserve Board. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_20250407_kugler
BibTeX
@misc{wtfs_speech_20250407_kugler,
  author = {Adriana D. Kugler},
  title = {Lecture by Governor Kugler on inflation dynamics and the Phillips curve - Federal Reserve Board},
  year = {2025},
  month = {Apr},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_20250407_kugler},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}