The Energy Content of U.S. Exports and Imports

K.7 (#724 in RFD Series)

_ - -INTERNATIONAL FINANCE DISCUSSION PAPERS ~~

~ THE ENERGY CONTENT OF U.S. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS ~

~ Norman S. Fieleke

Discussion Paper No. 51, August 19, 1974

' Division of International Finance

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

The analysis and conclusions of this paper represent the views of the author and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

System or its staff. Discussion Papers in many cases are circulated in preliminary form to stimulate discussion and

comment and are not to be cited or quoted without the permission of the author.

The Energy Content of U.S. Exports and Imports

by Norman Ss. Fieleke*

Introduction -~ -

een

The recent oil crisis forcefully brought home the fact that the United States is a net importer of crude petroleum on a substantial scale. Because petroleum is an important energy sources the oil crisis immediately became an energy crisis. But crude petroleum is only one of the forms in which energy_is exported and imported; éoal and natural gas are other

obvious examples. In -addition, such natural forms are embodied in other

traded products3 for exampte, if a nation imported crude petroleum,

refined it, and exported the refined product, it would be absurd to count

1/

the nation's imports of crude petroleum as its total trade in energy. Input-out put analysis makes it possible to estimate the total amount of energy from coal, crude petroleum, natural gaS> hydropower s nuclear power, and geothermal power which is embodied in U.S. exports and competitive imports. The approach adopted in this study is to compute the

quantity of energy required from these “primary” energy sources both ooo esis

* The author is Assistant Adviser; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He is indebted to staff of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) >» especially Norman Saunders and Charles Bowman, for advice and assistance in performing the computations underlying this study. Also, the technique used in the study resembles that in Wassily Leontief's classic “Domestic Production and Foreign Trade: The American Capital

Position Re-examined,” Proceedings of the American Philosophical Societys 97 (September, 1953), 332-48. However, the author assumes full responsi-~

pility for the views expressed in this paper.

1/ It is recognized that petroleum is imported not only for its energy content but also for other reasons. For purposes of this: study, this dis~ tinction is ignored, gince consumption of petroleum (and coal, etc.) for whatever reason ig tantamount to consumption of energy.

22° (1) to produce 4 million dollars’ worth of U.S. exports and (2) to replace from domestic production a million dollars’ worth of competitive imports. Both. exports and imports are of average 1970 composition, the latest yeat for which the necessary input-output data are available. Thus, the study provides 4 rough calculation of the extent to which the United States was a net exporter OT. net importer of energy per million dollars of balanced

trade in 1970, provided competitive {imports are produced abroad with

techniques that do not differ greatly from the techniques used to produce

substitutes in this country, 4 ‘and provided the energy intensity of the relatively small volume of_ noncompetitive , imports. is not vastly different from the energy intensity of competitive imports. The results are examined both including and excluding direct exports and imports of crude petroleum, coal, and natural gas, because trade in these primary encrsy sources has changed dramatically since 1970 and because the main purpose of the study 4s to appraise the energy embodied in other traded products.

” Aside from sheer curiosity, there are several reasons why it is of interest to know the energy content of a million dollars’ worth of balanced trade. First, the more energy-intensive are U.S. imports relative to U.S. exports, then, other things being equal, (1) the greater is the real burden imposed on the United States by the increase in the relative

price of energy» and (2) the greater will be the deterioration in the U.S.

balance of trade. Second, if the United States were a net importer of

energy exe Luding direct net im ports of crude petroleum, it would be a net

importer of energy from the non-oi l-exporting countries as a group, so

RT RTS

pte

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that the U.S. terms of trade and balance of trade would tend to deteriorate (ceteris paribus) with those-countries as well as with the oil-exporting countries as a result of the increase in the relative price of energy. Finally, we can compute the net exports or imports of energy for each industrial classification and rank the classifications in order of their

net energy imports, so as to obtain some idea of the relative importance

of each classification as an exporter or importer of embodied energy.

Methodology 7 —

~—

The first step in carrying out the. study was to cowpute the value of exports of goods and services by industry class per milfion dollars of total 1970 exports, and to make a similar computation for competitive imports, i.e., for imports for which domestically produced substitutes are represented in the input-output tables constructed by the Commerce Department

. oo _

2/ Conceptually, there is very little difference between exports and imports as reported in the balance-of-payments statistics and exports and imports as used by BLS in the input-output computations underlying this study, except that noncompetitive imports and other items (such as income flows) which could not be classified in terms of the U.S. input-output sectors are excluded from this study. Also, in this study neither exports nor imports include reexports of foreign merchandise. Both exports and imports are valued at the U.S. port of export or import. The value of imports thus includes duties as well as transportation and insurance from the foreign port. With respect to exports, because the excess of the port value over "producers'” value is accounted for by the ‘margin’ industries (wholesale trade, etc.), the energy required by each margin industry was computed separately and then allocated as appropriate to the other producing industries to obtain the total energy requirement corresponding to the port value of each of the latter industries’ output. The total value of exports included in this study is $51,835 million, and the total value of imports is $47,743 million.

It should be noted that the composition of U.S. trade in 1970 was no doubt somewhat different from the equilibrium composition, since, among other things, exchange rates were not in equilibrium, a fact which is significant because some items are more price- (or exchange-rate-~) elastic than others.

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The figures so derived for each industry class were then multiplied by the

class's input-output coefficients for (1) crude petroleum, (2) natural gas»

(3) coal, and (4) “other primary energy sources (hydropower, nuclear power, and geothermal power), where the coefficients were expressed as dollar requirements (direct and indirect) per dollar of delivery to final demand in 1970.2! ‘The resulting data showed the dollar value of crude

petroleum, natural gas; coal, and “other” energy gources required, by a

industry class, per million dollars of total U.S. exports and competitive import replacements. These data were then divided by the appropriate unit values to yield requirements of petroleum in terms of barrels, of natural gas in cubic feet, of coal in tons, and of Vother" energy sources in kilowatt hours «“! Finally, these Vreal" energy requirements data were

converted into the comon denominator of prU-equivalents =! ———— .

3/ For each industry class, the input-output data provide a coefficient for crude petroleum and natural gas combined; they do not provide 4 coefficient for crude petroleum alone and another for natural gas alone. In consultation_with BLS staff, the coefficients for crude petroleum and natural gas were assumed to be 90 percent and 10 percent, respectively, of the coefficients for crude petroleum and natural gas combined, since the total output of crude petroleum and natural gas in 1970 by value was 90 percent crude petroleum and 10 percent natural gas. Similarly, for each industry class the coefficient for “other" primary energy sources was assumed to be 15 percent of the coefficient for electric utilities, since 15 percent of the value of electricity delivered to final demand was Pron duced by hydro, nuclear, and geothermal installations.

4/ The procedure described was not followed in the case of direct imports and exports of coal, crude petroleum, and natural gas, partly because the unit values appropriate for domestic production were not appropriate for deriving the volumes of direct trade in these items. Instead, the actual ‘yolumes per million dollars of exports and imports were enteréd directly.

5/ The following conversion factors were employed: 5,620,900 BIUs per barrel of crude petroleum; 1,031 BTUs per cubic foot of natural gas; 24,220,000 BTUs per ton of coal; and 10,494 BTUs per kilowatt hour. See U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Mineral Industr Surveys: Weekly Coal Report No. 2943, February 8, 1974, P- 3-

Results _ The results are summarized in Table i, and detail by industry class is presented in Table 2. The main contribution of this paper is to estimate the extent to which the United States imports or exports energy which is present in the ‘primary’ energy sources that in turn are embodied in other goods. Table 1 indicates that, in terms of the definitions used in this study, the United States is a net importer of energy in forms other than the primary sources to the extent of nearly 18 billion BTUs for each million dollars' worth of balanced trade of average 1970 composition; this figure includes 11 billion BTUs derived from crude petroleum. (To put some perspective on these numbers, if an automobile obtains 15 miles per gallon of gasoline, the volume of gasoline which contains 1 billion BTUs is adequate to propel the automobile a distance of about 120,000 miles.©! ) If direct trade in crude petroleum, natural gas, and coal is included, the table of course shows a much greater net import position, amounting to nearly 74 billion BTUs, although there is a slim net export position, amounting to 859 million BTUs, if direct trade in crude petroleum is excluded. | Table 2 shows that by industry class, and excluding direct trade in primary energy sources, the largest net imports of energy per million dollars of balanced 1970 trade occur in petroleum products, followed by blast furnaces and basic steel products, by motor vehicles, and by paper “6/ There are 5,240,000 BTUs per 42 gallon barrel of gasoline; see U.S. Department of the Interior, loc. cit. Technically, a British thermal unit

is defined as the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of one pound of water 1 degree Fahrenheit at or near its maximum density.

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Table 1

— Energy Requirements in BTUs per Million Dollars _ | of Total U.S. Exports and Import Replacements, 1970

(In millions of

Energy content of direct imports and ; exports of me - primary energy

BTU. requirements from:

Crude petroleum Exports —_ Imports ~

Net (exports +

Natural gas Exports ~ Imports Net (exports +)

Coal Exports Imports - Net (exports +)

Other sourcest! — . _ Exports Imports Net (exports +)

All sources except direct imports and exports of crude petroleum Exports Imports Net (exports +)

All above sources Exports Imports Net (exports +)

BTUs)

sources

541 74,950

274,409 -

1,824 16,774 -14,950

33,501 7

33,494,

35,325 16,781 18,544

35,866 91,731 -55,865

Energy

and

~ 28,651 39,437 7 =10,786

3,076 4,234

-1,158 —

15,038 20,572 ~=5,534

- 1,588 1,797 -209

48,354 66,040 -17, 686

48,354 66,040 -17 , 686

requirements for other imports

exports

Total

29,193 114,338 -85,195

4,900 21, 008 -16,108

48,539 20,579 27,960

1,588 1,797 -209

83,679 82,820 859

84,220 157,771 73,551

—_ _ ~

1/ Hydropower, nuclear power, and geothermal power.

Note: Source:

Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. See Table 2 and explanation in the text.

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products, in that order. The Aargest wet exports, in order of magnitude,

eccur_in crops and other agricultural products, chemical products, plastic

materials and synthetic rubber, and air transportation.

Conclusions

It is well known that the United States is a net importer of crude petroleum. This study presents 4 finding that is much. more significant for purposes of analyzing the effects on the nation of a vise in the price of energy: This finding is that U.S. imports as a whole seem to be considerably more energy-intensive than U.S. exports. ~ This discovery makes much more defensible the hypothesis that higher energy prices tend to worsen both the terms and the balance of trade of the United States.

The study also suggests that 4£ direct trade in crude petroleum Zs ignored, but all other trade is counted, U.S. exports tend to be slightly more energy-intensive than U.S. imports. Since the United States has substantial exports to the countries from which it imports crude petroleum, the magnitude of the 1970 U.S. energy deficit with those countries was less than is indicated by the energy component of direct crude petroleum imports; and, correspondingly, the slim energy surplus on trade excluding direct crude petroleum imports no doubt implies an energy deficit on trade with the non-oil-exporting countries. Thus the

U.S. terms of trade and balance of trade with these latter countries, as

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well as with the oil-exporting countries, are probably adversely affected (ceteris paribus) by the increased cost of energy «_!

-- Of course, a rise in the relative price of-energy-—has other implications for U.S. trade. For example, if the United States has a comparative advantage in the production of energy~saving capital goods, the nation's trade balance with other energy- importing countries will tend to improve

on that score. However, such considerations are beyond: the scope of this

study.

oe 7/ In this connection, it should be noted that the effects of a nondiscr:minatory increase in the relative price of energy on the U.S. terms and balance of trade with various areas would differ from the effects of discrimination in the foreign-supply of a primary energy source such as

crude petroleum. : -

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