Ifdp

Attention Allocation and Belief Distortions

Tariffs and Goods-Market Search Frictions

The Design and Effect of Tariff Retaliation: Evidence from the European Union

Risk in a Data-Rich Model

Volatile Rates, Fragile Growth: Global Financial Risk and Productivity Dynamics

Quantifying Deregulation and its Economic Effects: A Large Language Model Approach

The Effects of the War on Ukraine on Global Corporate Investment

To Find Relative Earnings Gains After the China Shock, Look Upstream and Outside Manufacturing

Productivity and Quality of Multi-product Firms

The Global (Mis)Allocation of Capital

Inequality and Asset Prices during Sudden Stops

Dollarization Waves: New Evidence from a Comprehensive International Bond Database

To Cap or Not to Cap? Energy Crises in a Currency Union

Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege

Economic Diversity and the Resilience of Cities

The case for supporting liquidity supply in (some corners of) non-bank intermediation

Retail inventories and inflation dynamics: The price margin channel

Imperfect Information and Slow Recoveries in the Labor Market

Clean Money, High Costs?

Core Inflation in the Advanced Economies: A Regional Perspective

De-Dollarization? Diversification? Exploring Central Bank Gold Purchases and the Dollar’s Role in International Reserves

Real Exchange Rate and Net Trade Dynamics: Financial and Trade Shocks

Geopolitical Risk and Global Banking

Why are Manufacturing Plants Smaller in Developing Countries? Theory and Evidence from India

Explaining World Savings

Expanding the Labor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone Labor Indicators

Food, Fuel, and Facts: Distributional Effects of Global Price Shocks

Breaking Up: Fragmentation in Foreign Direct Investment

What Determines Household Expectations?

Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics

Transformative and Subsistence Entrepreneurs: Origins and Impacts on Economic Growth

Corporate Debt Maturity and Business Cycle Fluctuations

Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy

Related Exposures to Distressed Borrowers and Bank Lending

Measuring Shortages since 1900

Optimal Credit Market Policy

How do Firms in Different Sectors Organize their Supply Chains? Evidence from Transaction-Level Import Data

Estimating the Volume of Counterfeit U.S. Currency in Circulation

Geopolitics Meets Monetary Policy: Decoding Their Impact on Cross-Border Bank Lending

Corporate Debt Maturity Matters for Monetary Policy

Foreign economic policy uncertainty and U.S. equity returns

How Does Fiscal Policy affect the Transmission of Monetary Policy into Cross-border Bank Lending? Cross-country Evidence

New Evidence on the US Excess Return on Foreign Portfolios

U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Both Shocks and Vulnerabilities Matter

Household Excess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Arepas are not Tacos: On the Labor Markets of Latin America

Limited (Energy) Supply, Monetary Policy, and Sunspots

The Effect of Export Market Access on Labor Market Power: Firm-level Evidence from Vietnam

Tax Heterogeneity and Misallocation

Monetary Policy without Moving Interest Rates: The Fed Non-Yield Shock

Exchange Rate Disconnect and the Trade Balance

Corporate Bond Issuance Over Financial Stress Episodes: A Global Perspective

Tariff Rate Uncertainty and the Structure of Supply Chains

Demand for U.S Banknotes at Home and Abroad: A Post-Covid Update

On the GDP Effects of Severe Physical Hazards

Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World

The International Spillovers of Synchronous Monetary Tightening

Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending

Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany

Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar

Who's Most Exposed to International Shocks? Estimating Differences in Import Price Sensitivity across U.S. Demographic Groups

Corporate Tax Cuts and the Decline of the Manufacturing Labor Share

Exchange Rate Elasticities of International Tourism and the Role of Dominant Currency Pricing

Forward Looking Exporters

The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options

What is Measured in National Accounts?

Identifying Financial Crises Using Machine Learning on Textual Data

In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate

Effects of Information Overload on Financial Markets: How Much Is Too Much?

The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations

The Inflationary Effects of Sectoral Reallocation

What are Large Global Banks Doing About Climate Change?

A North-South Model of Structural Change and Growth

Understanding the Strength of the Dollar

Passive Ownership and Short Selling

Financing Repeat Borrowers: Designing Credible Incentives for Today and Tomorrow

Credit access and relational contracts: An experiment testing informational and contractual frictions for Pakistani farmers

Visible Hands: Professional Asset Managers' Expectations and the Stock Market in China

Sectoral Shocks, Reallocation, and Labor Market Policies

What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China

Making the Elite: Top Jobs, Disparities, and Solutions

Geopolitics and the U.S. Dollar's Future as a Reserve Currency

The impact of risk cycles on business cycles: a historical view

Market Effects of Central Bank Credit Markets Support Programs in Europe

Debt Overhang and the Retail Apocalypse

Search Frictions, Labor Supply, and the Asymmetric Business Cycle

Financial Failure and Depositor Quality: Evidence from Building and Loan Associations in California

Demand-Supply imbalance during the Covid-19 pandemic: The role of fiscal policy

Pandemic Priors

The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis

On the optimal design of transfers and income-tax progressivity

SONOMA: a Small Open ecoNOmy for MAcrofinance

Trade, Labor Reallocation Across Firms and Wage Inequality

Trade policies and fiscal devaluations

The Green Corporate Bond Issuance Premium

The rising tide lifts some interest rates: climate change, natural disasters, and loan pricing

Monetary Policy and Homeownership: Empirical Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications

The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment

Spread Too Thin: The Impact of Lean Inventories

Forecast Revisions as Instruments for News Shocks

Monetary Policy in a Model of Growth

Reusing Natural Experiments

Measuring Geopolitical Risk

A Journey in the History of Sovereign Defaults on Domestic-Law Public Debt

The Dynamics of Global Sourcing

Devaluations, Deposit Dollarization, and Household Heterogeneity

Cross-Sectional Financial Conditions, Business Cycles and The Lending Channel

Stablecoins: Growth Potential and Impact on Banking

Non-Linear Employment Effects of Tax Policy

U.S. Housing as a Global Safe Asset: Evidence from China Shocks

Trade Policy is Real News: Theory and Evidence

The Pitfalls of Using Location Quotients to Identify Clusters and Represent Industry Specialization in Small Regions

Financial Stability Governance and Central Bank Communications

Corporate stress and bank nonperforming loans: Evidence from Pakistan

Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility

Global Banking and Firm Financing: A Double Adverse Selection Channel of International Transmission

Sharing Asymmetric Tail Risk: Smoothing, Asset Prices and Terms of Trade

Expansionary Austerity: Reallocating Credit Amid Fiscal Consolidation

The Intangible Gender Gap: An Asset Channel of Inequality

The Economic Effects of Firm-Level Uncertainty: Evidence Using Subjective Expectations

Revisiting Capital-Skill Complementarity, Inequality, and Labor Share

The Global Determinants of International Equity Risk Premiums

The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty

Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks

Supply of Sovereign Safe Assets and Global Interest Rates

From Micro to Macro: A Note on the Analysis of Aggregate Productivity Dynamics Using Firm-Level Data

Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model

The Dollar and Corporate Borrowing Costs

Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry

Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Labor Market Adjustment

Bought, Sold and Bought Again: The Impact of Complex Value Chains on Export Elasticities

The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**

Optimizing Credit Gaps for Predicting Financial Crises: Modelling Choices and Tradeoffs

Common Trade Exposure and Business Cycle Comovement

Financial Integration and the Co-Movement of Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States

Technology, Geography, and Trade over Time: The Dynamic Effects of Changing Trade Policy

Natural Disasters, Climate Change, and Sovereign Risk

Trade Credit, Markups, and Relationships

Intermediary Asset Pricing during the National Banking Era

Exchange Rates and Endogenous Productivity

Investor Sentiment and the (Discretionary) Accrual-return Relation

The Stock Market Response to a "Regulatory Sine Curve"

Does Unemployment Risk Affect Business Cycle Dynamics?

Optimal Taxation with Endogenous Default under Incomplete Markets

Artificial Intelligence Methods for Evaluating Global Trade Flows

Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery

What is Certain about Uncertainty?

Scarcity of Safe Assets and Global Neutral Interest Rates

Computerizing Households and the Role of Investment-Specific Productivity in Business Cycles

The State Dependent Effectiveness of Hiring Subsidies

U.S. Banks and Global Liquidity

Bank Complexity, Governance, and Risk

Capital Flows, Asset Prices, and the Real Economy: A "China Shock" in the U.S. Real Estate Market

Monetary Policy Expectations, Fund Managers, and Fund Returns: Evidence from China

Taxation, Social Welfare, and Labor Market Frictions

The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination

Global Trade and GDP Co-Movement

The Impact of Financial Sanctions: The Case of Iran 2011-2016

The Economics of Platforms in a Walrasian Framework

Uncertainty and Growth Disasters

Emerging Markets and the New Geography of Trade: The Effects of Rising Trade Barriers

Patent-Based News Shocks

Sovereign Risk Matters: The Effects of Endogenous Default Risk on the Time-Varying Volatility of Interest Rate Spreads

News and Uncertainty Shocks

Avoiding Sovereign Default Contagion: A Normative Analysis

How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs?

Common Transport Infrastructure: A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative

Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints

The Elusive Gains from Nationally-Oriented Monetary Policy

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets

How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets

Household Debt and the Heterogeneous Effects of Forward Guidance

Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries

The Effect of U.S. Stress Tests on Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets

The Self-Employment Option in Rigid Labor Markets: An Empirical Investigation

Oil Prices and Consumption across Countries and U.S. States

Dealer Leverage and Exchange Rates: Heterogeneity Across Intermediaries

Differential Treatment in the Bond Market: Sovereign Risk and Mutual Fund Portfolios

Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing

Scarred Consumption

The Dollar and Emerging Market Economies: Financial Vulnerabilities Meet the International Trade System

Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk

The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty

Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity

Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets

US Equity Tail Risk and Currency Risk Premia

Forecasting High-Risk Composite CAMELS Ratings

Risk-Taking Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy in the Global Market for U.S. Dollar Corporate Loans

Every Cloud has a Silver Lining: Cleansing Effects of the Portuguese Financial Crisis

Housing Choices and Their Implications for Consumption Heterogeneity

Monetary Policy, Housing Rents, and Inflation

Asset Price Learning and Optimal Monetary Policy

Variance Risk Premium Components and International Stock Return Predictability

Institutional Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit

Liquidity Funding Shocks: The Role of Banks' Funding Mix

The Global Factor in Neutral Policy Rates: Some Implications for Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy, and Policy Coordination

Understanding Persistent Stagnation

The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Policy

Cross-Border Bank Flows and Monetary Policy

Selective Sovereign Defaults

Measuring the Implementation of the FSB Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions in the European Union

The Heterogeneous Effects of Government Spending: It's All About Taxes

Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?

International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing

First to "Read" the News: New Analytics and Algorithmic Trading

Modeling Your Stress Away

Home Country Interest Rates and International Investment in U.S. Bonds

Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World

A Tale of Two Sectors: Why is Misallocation Higher in Services than in Manufacturing?

Financial Institutions' Business Models and the Global Transmission of Monetary Policy

Foreign Effects of Higher U.S. Interest Rates

Measuring Monetary Policy Spillovers between U.S. and German Bond Yields

Structural Change and Global Trade

Searching for Yield Abroad: Risk-Taking Through Foreign Investment in U.S. Bonds

Stock Market Cross-Sectional Skewness and Business Cycle Fluctuations

Does Smooth Ambiguity Matter for Asset Pricing?

Estimating Unequal Gains across U.S. Consumers with Supplier Trade Data

A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics

Learning and the Value of Trade Relationships

Innovation, Productivity, and Monetary Policy

Taxonomy of Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility Measures

Monetary Policy Uncertainty

International Transfer Pricing and Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Linked Trade-Tax Statistics in the UK

Identifying Foreign Suppliers in U.S. Import Data

Managing Capital Flows in the Presence of External Risks

Firm-specific risk-neutral distributions: The role of CDS spreads

Finance and Inequality: The Distributional Impacts of Bank Credit Rationing

Efficient Public Good Provision in Networks: Revisiting the Lindahl Solution

Interest Rate Volatility and Sudden Stops: An Empirical Investigation

China's Current Account: External Rebalancing or Capital Flight?

Goods-Market Frictions and International Trade

Comparative Advantage in Innovation and Production

International Reserves, Credit Constraints, and Systemic Sudden Stops

Internal Liquidity Management and Local Credit Provision

Sentiment in Central Bank's Financial Stability Reports

Reversals in Global Market Integration and Funding Liquidity

International Illiquidity

Capital-Task Complementarity and the Decline of the U.S. Labor Share of Income

Disaster Risk and Asset Returns: An International Perspective

The Effect of Foreign Lending on Domestic Loans: an Analysis of U.S. Global Banks

"Low-For-Long" Interest Rates and Banks' Interest Margins and Profitability: Cross-Country Evidence

Uncertainty, Currency Excess Returns, and Risk Reversals

Incentive Contracting Under Ambiguity Aversion

Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

Learning, Prices, and Firm Dynamics

Complex-Task Biased Technological Change and the Labor Market

The Anatomy of Financial Vulnerabilities and Crises

Capital Controls and Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Small Open Economy

How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?

Risk Taking and Interest Rates: Evidence from Decades in the Global Syndicated Loan Market

Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection

Prudential policies and their impact on credit in the United States

A Passage to India: Quantifying Internal and External Barriers to Trade

Economic Forecasting in Theory and Practice: An Interview with David F. Hendry

Banks' Equity Stakes and Lending: Evidence from a Tax Reform

Asymmetric Information and the Death of ABS CDOs

Option-Implied Libor Rate Expectations across Currencies

Can Learning Explain Boom-Bust Cycles In Asset Prices? An Application to the US Housing Boom

International Banking and Cross-Border Effects of Regulation: Lessons from the United States

Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications

Bad Bad Contagion

Banking Across Borders With Heterogeneous Banks

Are euro-area corporate bond markets irrelevant? The effect of bond market access on investment

Estimating Dynamic Macroeconomic Models: How Informative Are the Data?

Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates

Oil Price Elasticities and Oil Price Fluctuations

Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Risk Premia

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Housing Tenure Choice as an Explanation for the Price Puzzle

What Determines the Composition of International Bank Flows?

Changes in Prudential Policy Instruments--A New Cross-Country Database

Raising an Inflation Target: the Japanese Experience with Abenomics

Doves for the Rich, Hawks for the Poor? Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy

The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks

"It's Not You, It's Me": Breakups in U.S.-China Trade Relationships

Relative Wealth Concerns, Executive Compensation, and Systemic Risk-Taking

Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries

The Macroeconomic Risks of Undesirably Low Inflation

Bank Capital Pressures, Loan Substitutability, and Nonfinancial Employment

Surprise and Uncertainty Indexes: Real-Time Aggregation of Real-Activity Macro Surprises

Managerial Compensation under Privately-Observed Hedging

Cash Windfalls and Acquisitions

No Guarantees, No Trade: How Banks Affect Export Patterns

The Rise of Exporting By U.S. Firms

Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Crises

Can Self-Help Groups Really Be 'Self-Help'?

Have Global Value Chains Contributed to Global Imbalances?

Domestic Debt and Sovereign Defaults

Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC's Minutes Around the Financial Crisis

International Trade, Risk and the Role of Banks

The Corporate Saving Glut in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis

Why Do Short Sellers Like Qualitative News?

Securitization and Credit Quality

Biased Shorts: Short sellers' Disposition Effect and Limits to Arbitrage

Misallocation and Productivity in the Lead Up to the Eurozone Crisis

Realized Bank Risk during the Great Recession

Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?

International Dollar Flows

Contracting with Feedback

Securitization and lending standards: Evidence from the European wholesale loan market

Cheap Talk and the Efficacy of the ECB's Securities Market Programme: Did Bond Purchases Matter?

The Liquidity Effects of Official Bond Market Intervention

The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach-for-Yield, and Real Effects

How Effective are Macroprudential Policies? An Empirical Investigation

Understanding the Great Recession

International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?

Risk, Financial Development and Firm Dynamics

Firm Dynamics and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations

Large Capital Inflows, Sectoral Allocation, and Economic Performance

The Systematic Component of Monetary Policy in SVARs: An Agnostic Identification Procedure

Risk Choices and Compensation Design

Government Connections and Financial Constraints: Evidence from a Large Representative Sample of Chinese Firms

A Model of Anomaly Discovery

Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation - Comment

Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balances

Gains from Offshoring? Evidence from U.S. Microdata

Banks, Capital Flows and Financial Crises

Bank Interventions and Options-based Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Global and Euro-area Crisis

Financial Business Cycles

Employment and Firm Heterogeneity, Capital Allocation, and Countercyclical Labor Market Policies

The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions

Estimating U.S. Cross-Border Securities Positions: New Data and New Methods

Returns to Active Management: The Case of Hedge Funds

The Domestic and International Effects of Interstate U.S. Banking

Collateral Constraints and Macroeconomic Asymmetries

Taxes and International Risk Sharing

U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies

The Energy Boom and Manufacturing in the United States

The Decline of Drudgery and the Paradox of Hard Work

Liquidity Risk and U.S. Bank Lending at Home and Abroad

Sovereign Debt Crises

Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios

Menu Costs, Trade Flows, and Exchange Rate Volatility

Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison

Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications

Bank Ownership, Lending, and Local Economic Performance During the 2008-2010 Financial Crisis

Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Brazil, Chile and Mexico?

Say on Pay Laws, Executive Compensation, CEO Pay Slice, and Firm Value Around the World

A Model of Slow Recoveries from Financial Crises

Do Small Businesses Still Prefer Community Banks?

Trade Reforms, Foreign Competition, and Labor Market Adjustments in the U.S.

Local Currency Sovereign Risk

Can Structural Reforms Help Europe?

Portfolio Diversification and the Cross-Sectional Distribution of Foreign Investment

Interest Rate Swaps and Corporate Default

"Fool Me Once . . . " Did U.S. Investors Play it Safer in the European Debt Crisis?

Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations

International Evidence on Government Support and Risk Taking in the Banking Sector

Global Financial Conditions, Country Spreads and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Countries

The Systemic Risk of European Banks During the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis

Liquidity Shocks, Dollar Funding Costs, and the Bank Lending Channel During the European Sovereign Crisis

Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: A Brave New World?

A State-Dependent Model for Inflation Forecasting

Do Central Banks' Forecasts Take Into Account Public Opinion and Views?

Taxation, Match Quality and Social Welfare

A Robust Neighborhood Truncation Approach to Estimation of Integrated Quarticity

On Returns Differentials

Revenge of the Steamroller: ABCP as a Window on Risk Choices

The Cyclicality of Job-to-Job Transitions and Its Implications for Aggregate Productivity

A Theory of Rollover Risk, Sudden Stops, and Foreign Reserves

Challenges for the Future of Chinese Economic Growth

Foreign Banks in the U.S.: A Primer

Institutional Herding in the Corporate Bond Market

Firm Characteristics and Empirical Factor Models: A Data-Mining Experiment

Sovereign Credit Risk, Banks' Government Support, and Bank Stock Returns Around the World

Variance Risk Premiums and the Forward Premium Puzzle

Banks, Sovereign Debt and the International Transmission of Business Cycles

Do Recessions Affect Potential Output?

Fiscal Consolidation in a Currency Union: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Hikes

Gauging The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus Packages In The Euro Area

Nonparametric HAC Estimation for Time Series Data with Missing Observations

Crisis and Calm: Demand for U.S. Currency at Home and Abroad From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to 2011

The Return on U.S. Direct Investment at Home and Abroad

Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting

International Relative Price Levels: A Look Under the Hood

Commodity Price Movements in a General Equilibrium Model of Storage

Heterogeneous Workers, Optimal Job Seeking, and Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics

Individual Price Adjustment Along the Extensive Margin

U.S. Real Interest Rates and Default Risk in Emerging Economies

Is There a Fiscal Free Lunch in a Liquidity Trap?

Financial Frictions, Trade Credit, and the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis

Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries

Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries

Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through

How Do Laffer Curves Differ Across Countries?

The Timing of Sovereign Defaults Over Electoral Terms

Fiscal Consolidation in an Open Economy

When Good Investments Go Bad: The Contraction in Community Bank Lending After the 2008 GSE Takeover

U.S. International Equity Investment

The Effect of TARP on Bank Risk-Taking

Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies: What Lessons From the Global Financial Crisis?

Immigration, Remittances and Business Cycles

Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Treasury Yields

Aggregate Hours Worked in OECD Countries: New Measurement and Implications for Business Cycles

Exports Versus Multinational Production Under Nominal Uncertainty

Are Recoveries from Banking and Financial Crises Really So Different?

Monetary Regime Switches and Unstable Objectives

The Variance Risk Premium Around the World

Loose Commitment in Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Models: Theory and Applications

The Growth of Chinese Exports: An Examination of the Detailed Trade Data

Housing and Debt Over the Life Cycle and Over the Business Cycle

Oil Efficiency, Demand, and Prices: A Tale of Ups and Downs

Empirical Estimation of Trend and Cyclical Export Elasticities

Lack of Commitment and the Level of Debt

Firm Default and Aggregate Fluctuations

ABS Inflows to the United States and the Global Financial Crisis

Housing Wealth and Consumption

The Revealed Competitiveness of U.S. Exports

Evaluating the Forecasting Performance of Commodity Futures Prices

U.S. Domestic and International Financial Reform Policy: Are G20 Commitments and the Dodd-Frank Act in Sync?

Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model

Forecasting the Price of Oil

Liquidity and Reserve Requirements in Brazil

Limited Market Participation and Asset Prices in the Presence of Earnings Management

Quantitative Easing and Bank Lending: Evidence from Japan

Where are Global and U.S. Trade Heading in the Aftermath of the Trade Collapse: Issues and Alternative Scenarios

Closing Large Open Economy Models

U.S. International Equity Investment and Past Prospective Returns

Explaining the Energy Consumption Portfolio in a Cross-Section of Countries: Are the BRICs Different?

International Capital Flows and the Returns to Safe Assets in the United States, 2003-2007

Nonlinearities in the Oil Price-Output Relationship

Asymmetric Shocks in a Currency Union with Monetary and Fiscal Handcuffs

Fiscal Positions and Government Bond Yields in OECD Countries

Could Asymmetric Information Alone Have Caused the Collapse of Private-Label Securitization?

Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

Entry Dynamics and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-Through

Offshoring Bias in U.S. Manufacturing: Implications for Productivity and Value Added

Has International Financial Co-Movement Changed? Emerging Markets in the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis

The Information Content of High-Frequency Data for Estimating Equity Return Models and Forecasting Risk

Input and Output Inventories in General Equilibrium

Monetary Policy and the Cyclicality of Risk

Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy

Imperfect Credibility and the Zero Lower Bound on the Nominal Interest Rate

Interpreting Investment-Specific Technology Shocks

News and Sovereign Default Risk in Small Open Economies

Oil Shocks and External Adjustment

Interest on Excess Reserves as a Monetary Policy Instrument: The Experience of Foreign Central Banks

Offshore Production and Business Cycle Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms

How Did a Domestic Housing Slump Turn into a Global Financial Crisis?

Term Structure Forecasting Using Macro Factors And Forecast Combination

Technology Shocks: Novel Implications for International Business Cycles

Heterogeneous Firms and Import Quality: Evidence from Transaction-Level Prices

Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle

Labor Market Search in Emerging Economies

Asset Returns with Earnings Management

Are Chinese Exports Sensitive to Changes in the Exchange Rate?

Diversification Across Characteristics

Executive Compensation and Earnings Management Under Moral Hazard

Portfolio Inertia and the Equity Premium

The Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule

Characteristic-Based Mean-Variance Portfolio Choice

Rise of the Machines: Algorithmic Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market

Uncertainty Over Models and Data: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation

Did Easy Money in the Dollar Bloc Fuel the Global Commodity Boom?

The Power of Long-Run Structural VARs

Decomposing the U.S. External Returns Differential

Frequency of Observation and the Estimation of Integrated Volatility in Deep and Liquid Financial Markets

The Puzzling Peso

On the Solvency of Nations: Are Global Imbalances Consistent with Intertemporal Budget Constraints?

South Africa's Post-Apartheid Two-Step: Social Demands versus Macro Stability

The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Real Time Foreign Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets

Border Prices and Retail Prices

Consumption Response to Expected Future Income

Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks

Exchange Rates Dependence: What Drives It?

Markup Variation and Endogenous Fluctuations in the Price of Investment Goods

Biofuels Impact on Crop and Food Prices: Using an Interactive Spreadsheet

The Taylor Rule and Interval Forecast For Exchange Rates

Currency Crashes in Industrial Countries: Much Ado About Nothing?

Tax Smoothing in Frictional Labor Markets

The Demand for Youth: Implications for the Hours Volatility Puzzle

Fiscal Policy in the European Monetary Union

Sudden Stops, Financial Crises and Leverage: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q*

The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective

Home Computers and Educational Outcomes: Evidence from the NLSY97 and CPS

Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices

A Non-Random Walk Revisited: Short- and Long-Term Memory in Asset Prices

Estimating the Parameters of a Small Open Economy DSGE Model: Identifiability and Inferential Validity

Housing Market Risks in the United Kingdom

Testing the Expectations Hypothesis When Interest Rates are Near Integrated

Do Fundamentals Explain the International Impact of U.S. Interest Rates? Evidence at the Firm Level

Soft Information in Earnings Announcements: News or Noise?

Assessing the Potential for Further Foreign Demand for U.S. Assets: Has Financing U.S. Current Account Deficits Made Foreign Investors Overweight in U.S. Securities?

Efficiency in Housing Markets: Do Home Buyers Know how to Discount?

Expected Consumption Growth from Cross-Country Surveys: Implications for Assessing International Capital Markets

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Generalization

Current Account Sustainability and Relative Reliability

Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations

Escape From New York: The Market Impact of SEC Rule 12h-6

The Macroeconomic Effect of External Pressures on Monetary Policy

Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Argentine Broad Money Demand

The Asian Financial Crisis, Uphill Flow of Capital, and Global Imbalances: Evidence from a Micro Study

Optimal Monetary Policy with Distinct Core and Headline Inflation Rates

Friends or Foes? The Stock Price Impact of Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments and the Price of Keeping Secrets

Foreign Exposure to Asset-Backed Securities of U.S. Origin

Simple Monetary Rules Under Fiscal Dominance

An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data

How Long Can the Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Deficit Be Sustained?

International Asset Markets And Real Exchange Rate Volatility

Trade Elasticity of Substitution and Equilibrium Dynamics

Predicting Global Stock Returns

Jackknifing Stock Return Predictions

Housing, Home Production, and the Equity and Value Premium Puzzles

Growth-Led Exports: Is Variety the Spice of Trade?

Why Do U.S. Cross-Listings Matter?

Currency Crashes and Bond Yields in Industrial Countries

Competitive Search Equilibrium in a DSGE Model

Interpreting Long-Horizon Estimates in Predictive Regressions

Emerging Market Business Cycles Revisited: Learning about the Trend

Predicting Cycles in Economic Activity

Bank Integration and Financial Constraints: Evidence from U.S. Firms

A Solution to the Default Risk-Business Cycle Disconnect

Do Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances?

Cross-border Bank Acquisitions: Is there a Performance Effect?

Cross-Border Returns Differentials

On the Application of Automatic Differentiation to the Likelihood Function for Dynamic General Equilibrium Models

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Customer Markets

International Competition and Inflation: A New Keynesian Perspective

Measuring U.S. International Relative Prices: A WARP View of the World

Loose Commitment

Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables are Near-Integrated

Sovereign CDS and Bond Pricing Dynamics in Emerging Markets: Does the Cheapest-to-Deliver Option Matter?

Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Mercantilism

Private Payments Systems in Historical Perspective: The Banco Central System of Mexico

Habit Formation and the Comovement of Prices and Consumption During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Programs

The Stambaugh Bias in Panel Predictive Regressions

India's Future: It's About Jobs

Monthly Estimates of U.S. Cross-Border Securities Positions

Quantitative Implications of Indexed Bonds in Small Open Economies

External Governance and Debt Agency Costs of Family Firms

The Transmission of Domestic Shocks in the Open Economy

A Residual-Based Cointegration Test for Near Unit Root Variables

The Role of China in Asia: Engine, Conduit, or Steamroller?

Trading Activity and Exchange Rates in High-Frequency EBS Data

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Export Prices: Assessing Some Cross-Country Evidence

Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions

Bargaining, Fairness, and Price Rigidity in a DSGE Environment

What Can the Data Tell Us about Carry Trades in Japanese Yen?

Three Great American Disinflations

Price Setting during Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico

A Note on the Coefficient of Determination in Models with Infinite Variance Variables

The Stability of Large External Imbalances: The Role of Returns Differentials

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Costly Wage Bargaining

U.S. External Adjustment: Is It Disorderly? Is It Unique? Will It Disrupt the Rest of the World?

Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis

Dollarization and Financial Integration

The Adjustment of Global External Imbalances: Does Partial Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices Matter?

Markov Switching GARCH Models of Currency Turmoil in Southeast Asia

Are Antidumping Duties for Sale? Case-Level Evidence on the Grossman-Helpman Protection for Sale Model

Flying Geese or Sitting Ducks: China's Impact on the Trading Fortunes of other Asian Economies

Measurement Matters for Modeling U.S. Import Prices

Global Asset Prices and FOMC Announcements

Of Nutters And Doves

Predicting Sharp Depreciations in Industrial Country Exchange Rates

Sovereign Debt Crises and Credit to the Private Sector

Changes in Job Quality and Trends in Labor Hours

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy When Money is Essential

International Cross-listing, Firm Performance and Top Management Turnover: A Test of the Bonding Hypothesis

An Empirical Analysis of Specialist Trading Behavior at the New York Stock Exchange

A Bivariate Model of Fed and ECB Main Policy Rates

Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets

The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets

Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets

Ramsey Meets Hosios: The Optimal Capital Tax and Labor Market Efficiency

How Do FOMC Actions and U.S. Macroeconomic Data Announcements Move Brazilian Sovereign Yield Spreads and Stock Prices?

Does The Time Inconsistency Problem Make Flexible Exchange Rates Look Worse Than You Think?

Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Electronic Brokerage System Data

Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility

Predictive Regressions with Panel Data

Assessing Structural VARs

Trade Integration, Competition, and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-Through

Transmission of Volatility and Trading Activity in the Global Interdealer Foreign Exchange Market: Evidence from Electronic Broking Services (EBS) Data

What Drives Volatility Persistence in the Foreign Exchange Market?

Exchange-Rate Effects on China's Trade: An Interim Report

Can the U.S. Monetary Policy Fall (Again) in an Expectation Trap?

Currency Hedging and Corporate Governance: A Cross-country Analysis

Trade Adjustment and the Composition of Trade

Modeling Direct Investment Valuation Adjustments and Estimating Quarterly Positions

The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output

Fighting Against Currency Depreciation, Macroeconomic Instability and Sudden Stops

Should We Expect Significant Out-of-Sample Results When Predicting Stock Returns?

Fully Modified Estimation With Nearly Integrated Regressors

Exchange-Rate Pass-Through in the G-7 Countries

How Does the Border Affect Productivity? Evidence from American and Canadian Manufacturing Industries

Estimation of Average Local-to-Unity Roots in Heterogenous Panels

Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies

The Baby Boom: Predictability in House Prices and Interest Rates

Explaining the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances

DSGE Models of High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-Through

The Response of Global Equity Indexes to U.S. Monetary Policy Announcements

Accounting Standards and Information: Inferences from Cross-Listed Financial Firms

Alternative Procedures for Estimating Vector Autoregressions Identified with Long-Run Restrictions

House Prices and Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Study

International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates

Effects of Financial Autarky and Integration: The Case of the South Africa Embargo

A Flexible Finite-Horizon Identification of Technology Shocks

General-to-specific Modeling: An Overview and Selected Bibliography

Estimating Elasticities for U.S. Trade in Services

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Sticky Wages and Sticky Prices

Exchange Rate Pass-through to U.S. Import Prices: Some New Evidence

Adjusting Chinese Bilateral Trade Data: How Big is China's Trade Surplus

Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Bank Currency Mismatches?

Optimal Inflation Persistence: Ramsey Taxation with Capital and Habits

Can Long-Run Restrictions Identify Technology Shocks?

Investment-Specific and Multifactor Productivity in Multi-Sector Open Economies: Data and Analysis

Financial Market Developments and Economic Activity during Current Account Adjustments in Industrial Economies

International Risk-Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks

Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit

An Assessment of the Impact of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: 1991-2004

International Diversification at Home and Abroad

The High-Frequency Effects of U.S. Macroeconomic Data Releases on Prices and Trading Activity in the Global Interdealer Foreign Exchange Market

Global Financial Integration: A Collection of New Research

Productive Capacity, Product Varieties, and the Elasticities Approach to the Trade Balance

The Value of Financial Intermediaries: Empirical Evidence from Syndicated Loans to Emerging Market Borrowers

What Makes Investors Over or Underweight? Explaining International Appetites for Foreign Equities

Cash Flows and Discount Rates, Industry and Country Effects, and Co-Movement in Stock Returns

PPP Rules, Macroeconomic (In)stability and Learning

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Corporate Governance and the Shareholder Base

Look at Me Now: The Role of Cross-Listing in Attracting U.S. Investors

Is The Corporate Loan Market Globally Integrated? A Pricing Puzzle

Does Monetary Policy Keep Up with the Joneses? Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing with Consumption Externalities

The ET Interview: Professor David F. Hendry

The Delayed Response To A Technology Shock. A Flexible Price Explanation

Good News Is No News? The Impact of Credit Rating Changes on the Pricing of Asset-Backed Securities

Exact Utilities under Alternative Monetary Rules in a Simple Macro Model with Optimizing Agents

Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?

The Information Content of Forward and Futures Prices: Market Expectations and the Price of Risk

Is Inflation Targeting Best-Practice Monetary Policy?

The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Multinationals' Returns

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Linear-Quadratic Approach

Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption

The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations

Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition in Europe: A Macroeconomic Assessment

Monetary Discretion, Pricing Complementarity and Dynamic Multiple Equilibria

The Optimal Degree of Discretion in Monetary Policy

Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States

The Great Inflation of the 1970s

Ramsey Monetary Policy and International Relative Prices

Indeterminacy with Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules in a Two-Bloc Model

Sand in the Wheels of the Labor Market: The Effect of Firing Costs on Employment

Price-level Determinacy, Lower Bounds on the Nominal Interest Rate, and Liquidity Traps

News or Noise? An Analysis of Brazilian GDP Announcements

Foreign Participation in Local-Currency Bond Markets

The Impact of Bank Consolidation on Commercial Borrower Welfare

Is China "Exporting Deflation"?

The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: Evidence Based on Direct Measures of Technology

China and Emerging Asia: Comrades or Competitors?

Breaks in the Variability and Co-Movement of G-7 Economic Growth

Interest Rate Rules and Multiple Equilibria in the Small Open Economy

Evidence Uncovered: Long-Term Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, and the Expectations Theory

Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve in Canada

The High-Frequency Response of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements

Market Power and Inflation

Forecasting U.S. Inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging

Bayesian Model Averaging and Exchange Rate Forecasts

Capital Controls and the International Transmission of U.S. Money Shocks

Revisiting the Border: An Assessment of the Law of One Price Using Very Disaggregated Consumer Price Data

Contagion: An Empirical Test

How do Canadian Hours Worked Respond to a Technology Shock?

Precautionary Savings and the Wealth Distribution with Illiquid Durables

U.S. Investors' Emerging Market Equity Portfolios: A Security-Level Analysis

Cross-Border Listings, Capital Controls, and Equity Flows to Emerging Markets

Loans to Japanese Borrowers

What Happens After A Technology Shock?

IT Investment and Hicks' Composite-Good Theorem: The U.S. Experience

Uncovered Interest Parity: It Works, But Not For Long

Distance, Time, and Specialization

An Empirical Analysis of Inflation in OECD Countries

Net Foreign Assets and Imperfect Pass-through: The Consumption Real Exchange Rate Anomaly

Lurking in the Shadows: The informal sector and government policy

Diversification, Original Sin, and International Bond Portfolios

Are Financially Dollarized Countries More Prone to Costly Crises?

New Keynesian, Open-Economy Models and Their Implications for Monetary Policy

The Present-Value Model of the Current Account Has Been Rejected: Round Up the Usual Suspects

Transmission of Information Across International Equity Markets

Was There Front Running During the LTCM Crisis?

Foreign Portfolio Investment, Foreign Bank Lending, and Economic Growth

Consumption, Durable Goods, and Transaction Costs

Long-Run Supply Effects and the Elasticities Approach to Trade

Firm-Level Access To International Capital Markets: Evidence From Chilean Equities

International Monetary Policy Coordination and Financial Market Integration

Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator in a Monetary Union

Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade

Regional Inflation in a Currency Union: Fiscal Policy vs. Fundamentals

Inflation Dynamics and International Linkages: A Model of the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan

Macroeconomics of International Price Discrimination

Sticky Prices, No Menu Costs

The Road to Adopting the Euro: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes in EU Candidate Countries

Productivity, Investment, and Current Accounts: Reassessing the Evidence

Testing the Null of Identification in GMM

Monetary Union, Price Level Convergence, and Inflation: How Close is Europe to the United States?

Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data

A Simple Measure of the Intensity of Capital Controls

Are Depreciations as Contractionary as Devaluations? A Comparison of Selected Emerging and Industrial Economies

Identifying the Role of Moral Hazard in International Financial Markets

On the Fragility of Gains from Trade under Continuously Differentiated Bertrand Competition

The Inflation Persistence of Staggered Contracts

Productivity Shocks, Habits, and the Current Account

Price Level Convergence, Relative Prices, and Inflation in Europe

Factor Endowments and Industrial Structure

Sources of Economic Fluctuations in Latin America and Implications for Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes

Preventing Deflation: Lessons from Japan's Experience in the 1990s

Finding Numerical Results to Large Scale Economic Models Using Path-Following Algorithms: A Vintage Capital Example

International Comparisons of Productivity Growth: The Role of Information Technology and Regulatory Practices

A Guide to Choosing Absolute Bank Capital Requirements

To What Extent Will the Banking Industry be Globalized? A Study of Bank Nationality and Reach in 20 European Nations

Information Costs and Home Bias: An Analysis of U.S. Holdings of Foreign Equities

Equity Prices, Household Wealth, and Consumption Growth in Foreign Industrial Countries: Wealth Effects in the 1990s

International Coordination of Macroeconomic Policies: Still Alive in the New Millennium?

Financial Centers and the Geography of Capital Flows

Regional Influences on U.S. Monetary Policy: Some Implications for Europe

Identifying VARs Based on High Frequency Futures Data

On the Sequencing of Projects, Reputation Building, and Relationship Finance

Determinants and Repercussions of the Composition of Capital Inflows

Putty-Putty, Two Sector, Vintage Capital Growth Models

Inflation Dynamics

Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We've Really Made

Home Bias and High Turnover Reconsidered

Convergence in Neoclassical Vintage Capital Growth Models

The Contribution of Domestic and External Factors to Emerging Market Devaluation Crises: An Early Warning Systems Approach

Testing Optimality in Job Search Models

Exchange-Rate Exposure of Multinationals: Focusing on Exchange-Rate Issues

The Less Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth and Potential Explanations

Interpreting the Volatility Smile: An Examination of the Information Content of Option Prices

An Empirical Comparison of Bundesbank and ECB Monetary Policy Rules

Exact Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses in a Gaussian Vector Autoregression

Permanent and Transitory Components of Business Cycles: Their Relative Importance and Dynamic Relationship

The Use of Cyclical Indicators in Estimating the Output Gap in Japan

The Geography of Capital Flows: What We Can Learn from Benchmark Surveys of Foreign Equity Holdings

A Retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and His Contributions to Econometrics

Border Effects within the NAFTA Countries

Patience, Persistence, and Welfare Costs of Incomplete Markets in Open Economies

Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

Predictable Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting

Fiscal Federalism and European Integration: Implications for Fiscal and Monetary Policies

On the Effect of the Internet on International Trade

Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries

News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements

Size, Charter Value and Risk in Banking: An International Perspective

Output and Inflation in the Long Run

Firms and Their Distressed Banks: Lessons from the Norwegian Banking Crises (1988 – 1991)

Log-Periodogram Estimation of Long Memory Volatility Dependencies with Conditionally Heavy Tailed Returns

The Use and Abuse of "Real-Time" Data in Economic Forecasting

Markov Regime-Switching and Unit Root Tests

Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations

Spaghetti Regionalism

Modeling the IMF's Statistical Discrepancy in the Global Current Account

The Declining Volatility of U.S. Employment: Was Arthur Burns Right?

The Expectations Trap Hypothesis

Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System

Detecting Lack of Identification in GMM

Time-to-Build, Time-to-Plan, Habit-Persistence, and the Liquidity Effect

The Equivalence of Wage and Price Staggering in Monetary Business Cycle Models

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Residential and Structures Investment Under Differential Project Planning and Completion Times

Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates During Financial Crises

How Consistent Are Credit Ratings? A Geographic and Sectoral Analysis of Default Risk

Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity: Causes and Welfare Costs

Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Welfare Effects of Monetary Policy in a Two-Country Model with Home-Product Bias

Monetary Policy Independence in the ERM: Was There Any?

Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Consumers' Expenditure in Venezuela

Capital Controls During Financial Crises: The Case of Malaysia and Thailand

Monetary Disturbances Matter for Business Fluctuations in the G-7

Human Capital, Unemployment, and Relative Wages in a Global Economy

Evaluating Correlation Breakdowns during Periods of Market Volatility

'Here, Dollars, Dollars...' -- Estimating Currency Demand and Worldwide Currency Substitution

Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration

A Simple Approach to Robust Inference in a Cointegrating System

The Evolution and Determinants of Emerging Market Credit Spreads in the 1990s

Monetary Policy's Role in Exchange Rate Behavior

The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy

Long Memory in Emerging Market Stock Returns

High Frequency Data, Frequency Domain Inference and Volatility Forecasting

When Would Educational Standards Help Improve Scholastic Achievement?

Investment and the Current Account in the Short Run and the Long Run

Efficient Tests for Autoregressive Unit Roots in Panel Data

The Contributions of Domestic and External Factors to Latin American Devaluation Crises: An Early Warning Systems Approach

Violating the Law of One Price: Should We Make a Federal Case Out of It?

Trade Prices and Volumes in East Asia through The Crisis

From Indoctrination to the Culture of Change: Technological Progress, Adaptive Skills, and the Creativity of Nations

Monetary Policy and Price Stability

Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts

Uncovering Country Risk in Emerging Market Bond Prices

Why is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?

On the Dynamics of Trade Diversion: Evidence from Four Trade Blocs

The Current International Financial Crisis: How Much Is New?

Multilateralism and the Endogenous Formation of PTAs

What Triggers Market Jitters? A Chronicle of the Asian Crisis

Pitfalls in Tests for Changes in Correlations

Why Has China Survived the Asian Crisis So Well? What Risks Remain?

The Implications of Risk Management Information Systems for the Organization of Financial Firms

Idiosyncratic Tastes in a Two-Country Optimizing Model: Implications of a Standard Presumption

A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets

Currency and Banking Crisis: The Early Warnings of Distress

Inflation and the Great Ratios: Long-Term Evidence from the U.S.

Tradeoffs between Inflation and Output-Gap Variances in an Optimizing-Agent Model

A Framework for Economic Forecasting

Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?

"Big Bang" Deregulation and Japanese Corporate Governance: A Survey of the Issues

Relative Price Volatility: What Role Does the Border Play

Two Equivalence Theorems for Government Finance

Rational Bubbles under Diverse Information

Evaluating Forecasts of Correlation Using Option Pricing

What Determines Public Support for Affirmative Action?

Puzzles in the Chinese Stock Market

Disintegration

The Business Cycles of Currency Speculation: A Revision of The Mundellian Framework

Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis

Equilibrium Liquidity Premia

Macroeconomic Implications of Competitive College Admissions

Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rates

Some Multi-Country Evidence on the Effects of Real Exchange Rates on Output

The Robustness of Identified VAR Conclusions about Money

Trade Elasticities for G-7 Countries

El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?

U.S. Monetary Policy and Econometric Modeling: Tales from the FOMC Transcripts 1984-1991

Asset Bubbles, Domino Effects and 'Lifeboats': Elements of the East Asian Crisis

Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals

Was China the First Domino? Assessing Links between China and the Rest of Emerging Asia

A Multi-Country Comparison of the Linkages Between Inflation and Exchange Rate Competitiveness

Regionalism and Permanent Diversion

The Choice of a Monetary Policy Reaction Function in a Simple Optimizing Model

The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993

Globalization and Productivity in the United States and Germany

A Nonlinear Econometric Analysis of Capital Flight

Aggregate Productivity and Aggregate Technology

Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity

Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression

Nominal Wage Rigidities and the Propagation of Monetary Disturbances

Intra-National, Intra-Continental, and Intra-Planetary PPP

A Guide to FRB/Global

Regulation and the Cost of Capital in Japan: A Case Study

Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Information Systems for Risk Management

The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Model of Bank Behavior That Incorporates Long-Term Customer Relationships

Capital Inflows, Financial Intermediation, and Aggregate Demand: Empirical Evidence from Mexico and Other Pacific Basin Countries

Can Government Gold Be Put to Better Use? Qualitative and Quantitative Effects of Alternative Policies

Inflation Regimes and Inflation Expectations

Output and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: An Application to Mexico

An Econometric Model of Capital Flight from Developing Countries

Regional Labor Fluctuations: Oil Shocks, Military Spending, and Other Driving Forces

Capital Mobility and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff

General-to-Specific Procedures for Fitting a Data-Admissible, Theory-Inspired, Congruent, Parsimonious, Encompassing, Weakly Exogenous, Identified, Structural Model to the DGP: A Translation and Critique

Theoretical Confidence Level Problems with Confidence Intervals for the Spectrum of a Time Series

Net Foreign Assets and Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Panel Evidence

Timing of Childbearing, Family Size, and Economic Growth

Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle

Implications of Economic Interdependence and Exchange Rate Policy on Endogenous Wage Indexation Decisions

The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases

The Role of Credit in Post-Stabilization Consumption Booms

Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index

Financial Innovation and the Speed of Adjustment of Money Demand: Evidence from Bolivia, Israel, and Venezuela

Long-Term Evidence on the Tobin and Fisher Effects: A New Approach

Some Evidence on the Efficacy of the U.K. Inflation Targeting Regime: An Out-of-Sample Forecast Approach

The Use of the Parallel Market Rate as a Guide to Setting the Official Exchange Rate

Country Fund Discounts and the Mexican Crisis of December 1994: Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic before International Investors?

Eastern European Export Performance during the Transition

Inflation-Adjusted Potential Output

The Management of Financial Risks at German Nonfinancial Firms: The Case of Metallgesellschaft

Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece

Stockholding Behavior of U.S. Households: Evidence from the 1983-89 Survey of Consumer Finances

Firm Size and the Impact of Profit-Margin Uncertainty on Investment: Do Financing Constraints Play a Role?

The Sovereignty Option: The Quebec Referendum and Market Views on the Canadian Dollar

Real Exchange Rates and Inflation in Exchange-Rate Based Stabilizations: An Empirical Examination

Macroeconomic State Variables as Determinants of Asset Price Covariances

The Tequila Effect: Theory and Evidence from Argentina

The Accumulation of Human Capital: Alternative Methods and Why They Matter

Alternatives in Human Capital Accumulation: Implications for Economic Growth

More Evidence on the Link between Bank Health and Investment in Japan

The Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization and the Uncertain Duration of Currency Pegs

German Unification: What Have We Learned from Multi-Country Models?

Mexico's Balance-of-Payments Crisis: A Chronicle of Death Foretold

The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems

High Real Interest Rates in the Aftermath of Disinflation: Is It a Lack of Credibility?

Precautionary Portfolio Behavior from a Life-Cycle Perspective

Using Options Prices to Infer PDF's for Asset Prices: An Application to Oil Prices during the Gulf Crisis

Monetary Policy in the End-Game to Exchange-Rate Based Stabilizations: The Case of Mexico

Comparing the Welfare Costs and the Initial Dynamics of Alternative Temporary Stabilization Policies

Long Memory in Inflation Expectations: Evidence from International Financial Markets

Using Measures of Expectations to Identify the Effects of a Monetary Policy Shock

Regime Switching in the Dynamic Relationship between the Federal Funds Rate and Innovations in Nonborrowed Reserves

The Risks and Implications of External Financial Shocks: Lessons from Mexico

Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment

Regional Patterns in the Law of One Price: The Roles of Geography vs. Currencies

Aggregate Productivity and the Productivity of Aggregates

A Century of Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States

Modelling Inflation in Australia

Hyperinflation and Stabilisation: Cagan Revisited

On the Inverse of the Covariance Matrix in Portfolio Analysis

International Comparisons of the Levels of Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing

Uncertainty, Instrument Choice, and the Uniqueness of Nash Equilibrium: Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Examples

Targeting Inflation in the 1990s: Recent Challenges

Economic Development and Intergenerational Economic Mobility

Human Capital Accumulation, Fertility and Growth: A Re-Analysis

Excess Returns and Risk at the Long End of the Treasury Market: An Egarch-M Approach

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Mexico

When is Monetary Policy Effective?

Central Bank Independence, Inflation and Growth in Transition Economies

Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down

Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence From U.S. Manufacturing Industries

Block Distributed Methods for Solving Multi-Country Econometric Models

Supply-Side Sources of Inflation: Evidence From OECD Countries

Capital Flight from the Countries in Transition: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence

Bank Lending and Economic Activity in Japan: Did "Financial Factors" Contribute to the Recent Downturn?

Evidence of Nominal Wage Rigidity From a Panel of U.S. Manufacturing Industries

Do Taxes Matter for Long-Run Growth?: Harberger's Superneutrality Conjecture

Options, Sunspots, and the Creation of Uncertainty

Hysteresis in a Simple Model of Currency Substitution

Import Prices and the Competing Goods Effect

Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications

Supply-Side Economics in a Global Economy

The Lucas Critique in Practice: Theory Without Measurement

Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Macroeconomic Instability

Inferences From Parametric and Non-Parametric Covariance Matrix Estimation Procedures

Exchange-Rate Based Inflation Stabilization: The Initial Real Effects of Credible Plans

Strategic Returns to International Diversification: An Application to the Equity Markets of Europe, Japan, and North America

Real Exchange Rate Movements in High Inflation Countries

Political Competition, Causal Relationships Between Taxes and Spending, and Their Influence on Government Size: Evidence From State-Level Data

International Stock Price Spillovers and Market Liberalization: Evidence From Korea, Japan, and the United States

How Wide is the Border?

Constrained Suboptimality in Economies With Limited Communication

Saving-Investment Associations and Capital Mobility on the Evidence from Japanese Regional Data

Convertibility Risk, Default Risk, and the Mexdollar Anomaly

Government Budget Deficits and Trade Deficits: Are Present Value Constraints Satisfied in Long-Term Data?

Real Shocks and Real Exchange Rates in Really Long-Term Data

Loss Aversion in a Consumption/Savings Model

Terms-of-Trade Uncertainty and Economic Growth: Are Risk Indicators Significant in Growth Regressions?

Politics, Economics, and Investment: Explaining Plant and Equipment Spending by U.S. Direct Investors in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico

On the Dynamic Properties of Asymmetric Models of Real GNP

A Distributed Block Approach to Solving Near-Block-Diagonal Systems with an Application to a Large Macroeconometric Model

Conditional and Structural Error Correction Models

Bank Positions and Forecasts of Exchange Rate Movements

Technological Progress and Endogenous Capital Depreciation: Evidence from the U.S. and Japan

Are Banks Market Timers or Market Makers? Explaining Foreign Exchange Trading Profits

Constant Returns and Small Markups in U.S. Manufacturing

The Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Policy During the Gold Standard Period: Evidence from the United States and Great Britain

The Debt Crisis: Lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s

Who Will Join EMU? Impact of the Maastricht Convergence Criteria on Economic Policy Choice and Performance

Determinants of the 1991-93 Japanese Recession: Evidence from a Structural Model of the Japanese Economy

On Risk, Rational Expectations, and Efficient Asset Markets

Finance and Growth: A Synthesis and Interpretation of the Evidence

Trade Barriers and Trade Flows Across Countries and Industries

The Constancy of Illusions or the Illusion of Constancies: Income and Price Elasticities for U.S. Imports, 1890-1992

The Dollar as an Official Reserve Currency Under EMU

Inflation Targeting in the 1990s: The Experiences of New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom

International Capital Mobility in the 1990s

The Effect of Changes in Reserve Requirements on Investment and GNP

International Economic Implications of the End of the Soviet Union

International Dimension of European Monetary Union: Implications for the Dollar

European Monetary Arrangements: Implications for the Dollar, Exchange Rate Variability and Credibility

Fiscal Policy Coordination and Flexibility Under European Monetary Union: Implications for Macroeconomic Stabilization

The Federal Funds Rate and the Implementation of Monetary Policy: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Reaction Function

Understanding the Empirical Literature on Purchasing Power Parity: The Post-Bretton Woods Era

Inflation, Inflation Risk, and Stock Returns

Are Apparent Productive Spillovers a Figment of Specification Error?

When Do Long-run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?

Fluctuating Confidence and Stock-Market Returns

Dollarization in Argentina

Union Behavior, Industry Rents, and Optimal Policies

A Comparison of Some Basic Monetary Policy Regimes for Open Economies: Implications of Different Degrees of Instrument Adjustment and Wage Presistence

Cointegration, Seasonality, Encompassing, and the Demand for Money in the United Kingdom

Exchange Rates, Prices, and External Adjustment in the United States and Japan

Political and Economic Consequences of Alternative Privatization Strategies

Is there a World Real Interest Rate?

Macroeconomic Stabilization through Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union

Long-Term Banking Relationships in General Equilibrium

The Role of Fiscal Policy in an Incomplete Markets Framework

Internal Funds and the Investment Function

Measuring International Economic Linkages with Stock Market Data

Macroeconomic Risk and Asset Pricing: Estimating the APT with Observable Factors

Near Observational Equivalence and Unit Root Processes: Formal Concepts and Implications

Market Share and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in World Automobile Trade

Industry Restructuring and Export Performance: Evidence on the Transition in Hungary

Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: A Note

Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account

The GATT's Contribution to Economic Recovery in Post-War Western Europe

A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility

Cointegration Tests in the Presence of Structural Breaks

Life Expectancy of International Cartels: An Empirical Analysis

Daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Intervention and the Conditional Variance Tale in DM/$-Returns

War and Peace: Recovering the Market's Probability Distribution of Crude Oil Futures Prices During the Gulf Crisis

Growth, Political Instability, and the Defense Burden

Foreign Exchange Policy, Monetary Policy, and Capital Market Liberalization in Korea

The Political Economy of the Won: U.S.-Korean Bilateral Negotiations on Exchange Rates

Import Demand and Supply with Relatively few Theoretical or Empirical Puzzles

The Liquidity Premium in Average Interest Rates

The Power of Cointegration Tests

The Adequacy of the Data on U.S. International Financial Transactions: A Federal Reserve Perspective

Whom can we Trust to Run the FED? Theoretical Support for the Founders' Views

Stochastic Behavior of the World Economy under Alternative Policy Regimes

Real Exchange Rates: Measurement and Implications for Predicting U.S. External Imbalances

Central Banks' use in East Asia of Money Market Instruments in the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: The United States 1974 - 1990

Fiscal Implications of the Transition from Planned to Market Economy

Does World Investment Demand Determine U.S. Exports?

The Autonomy of Trade Elasticities: Choice and Consequences

German Unification and the European Monetary System: A Quantitative Analysis

Taxation and Inflation: A New Explanation for Current Account Imbalances

A Primer on the Japanese Banking System

Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis?

External Adjustment in Selected Developing Countries in the 1990s

Did the Debt Crisis or the Oil Price Decline Cause Mexico's Investment Collapse?

Cointegration, Exogeneity, and Policy Analysis: An Overview

The Usefulness of P* Measures for Japan and Germany

Comments on the Evaluation of Policy Models

Parameter Constancy, Mean Square Forecast Errors, and Measuring Forecast Perfomance: An Exposition, Extensions, and Illustration

Explaining the Volume of Intraindustry Trade: Are Increasing Returns Necessary?

How Pervasive is the Product Cycle? The Empirical Dynamics of American and Japanese Trade Flows

Anticipations of Foreign Exchange Volatility and Bid-Ask Spreads

A Re-Assessment of the Relationship between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: 1974-1990

Argentina's Experience with Parallel Exchange Markets: 1981-1990

PC-GIVE and David Hendry's Econometric Methodology

EMS Interest Rate Differentials and Fiscal Policy: A Model with An Empirical Application to Italy

The Statistical Discrepancy in the U. S. International Transactions Accounts: Sources and Suggested Remedies

In Search of the Liquidity Effect

Exchange Rate Rules in Support of Disinflation Programs in Developing Countries

The Adequacy of U. S. Direct Investment Data

Determining Foreign Exchange Risk and Bank Capital Requirements

Precautionary Money Balances with Aggregate Uncertainty

Using External Sustainability to Forecast the Dollar

Terms of Trade, The Trade Balance, and Stability: The Role of Savings Behavior

The Econometrics of Elasticities or the Elasticity of Econometrics: An Empirical Analysis of the Behavior of U.S. Imports

Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS

Market Segmentation and 1992: Toward a Theory of Trade in Financial Services

Post Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique

Mercantilism as Strategic Trade Policy: The Anglo-Dutch Rivalry for the East India Trade

Free Trade at Risk? An Historical Perspective

Why has Trade Grown Faster than Income?

Pricing to Market in International Trade: Evidence from Panel Data on Automobiles and Total Merchandise

Is the EMS the Perfect Fix? An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target Zones

Estimating Pass-Through: Structure and Stability

International Capital Mobility: Direct Evidence from Long-Term Currency Swaps

Is National Treatment Still Viable? U.S. Policy in Theory and Practice

Three-Factor General Equilibrium Models: A Dual, Geometric Approach

Modeling the Demand for Narrow Money in the United Kingdom and the United States

The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Onshore Markets of the United States, Germany, and Japan

Financial Structure and Economic Development

Foreign Currency Operations: An Annotated Bibliography

The Global Economic Implications of German Unification

Computers and the Trade Deficit: The Case of the Falling Prices

Evaluating the Predictive Performance of Trade-Account Models

Towards the Next Generation of Newly Industrializing Economies: The Roles for Macroeconomic Policy and the Manufacturing Sector

The Dynamics of Interest Rate and Tax Rules in a Stochastic Model

Stock Markets, Growth, and Policy

Prospects for Sustained Improvement in U.S. External Balance: Structural Change Versus Policy Change

International Financial Markets and the U.S. External Imbalance

Why Hasn't Trade Grown Faster Than Income? Inter-Industry Trade Over the Past Century

Contractionary Devaluation with Black Markets for Foreign Exchange

Exchange Rate Variability and the Level of International Trade

A Substitute for the Capital Stock Variable in Investment Functions

An Empirical Assessment of Non-Linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination

Equilibrium in a Production Economy with an Income Tax

Tariffs and the Macroeconomy: Evidence From the USA

European Integration, Exchange Rate Management, and Monetary Reform: A Review of the Major Issues

Savings Rates and Output Variability in Industrial Countries

Determinants of Japanese Direct Investment in U.S. Manufacturing Industries

The U. S. and U.K. Activities of Japanese Banks: 1980-1988

Policy Rules, Information, and Fiscal Effects in a "Ricardian" Model

A Forward-Looking Multicountry Model: MX3

Implications for Future U. S. Net Investment Payments of Growing U.S. Net International Indebtedness

U.S. Policy on the Problems of International Debt

International Economic Policy: The Role of Exchange Rates

An Econometric Analysis of UK Money Demand In Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz

Encompassing and Rational Expectations: How Sequential Corroboration Can Imply Refutation

The United States as a Heavily Indebted Country

External Debt and Developing Country Growth

An Algorithm To Solve Dynamic Models

Implications of the U.S. Current Account Deficit

Financial Intergration in the European Community

Exact and Approximate Multi-Period Mean-Square Forecast Errors For Dynamic Econometric Models

Macroeconomic Policies, Competitiveness, and U.S. External Adjustment

Exchange Rates and U.S. External Adjustment in the Short Run and the Long Run

U.S. External Adjustment: Progress and Prospects

Domestic and Cross-Border Consequences of U.S. Macroeconomic Policies

The Profitability of U.S. Intervention

Approaches to Managing External Equilibria: Where We Are, Where We Might Be Headed, and How We Might Get There

A Note on "Transfers"

A New Interpretation of the Coordination Problem and its Empirical Significance

A Long-run View of the European Monetary System

The Forward Exchange Rate Bias: A New Explanation

Adequacy of International Transactions and Position Data for Policy Coordination

Nominal Interest Rate Pegging Under Alternative Expectations Hypotheses

The Dynamics of Uncertainty or the Uncertainty of Dynamics: Stochastic J-Curves

Devaluation, Exchange Controls, and Black Markets for Foreign Exchange in Developing Countries

International Banking Facilities

Panic, Liquidity and the Lender of Last Resort: A Strategic Analysis

Real Interest Rates During the Disinflation Process in Developing Countries

International Comparisons of Labor Costs in Manufacturing

Interactions Between Domestic and Foreign Investment

The Timing of Consumer Arrivals in Edgeworth's Duopoly Model

Competition By Choice

The Determinants of the Growth of Multinational Banking Organizations: 1972-86

Econometric Modeling of Consumers' Expenditure in Venezuela

Income and Price Elasticities of Foreign Trade Flows: Econometric Estimation and Analysis of the U.S. Trade Deficit

Money, Interest, and Capital in a Cash-In-Advance Economy

The Simultaneous Equations Model with Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: The SEM-GARCH Model

Adjustment Costs and International Trade Dynamics

The Capital Flight "Problem"

Modeling Investment Income and Other Services in the U.S. International Transactions Accounts

Improving the Forecast Accuracy of Provisional Data: An Application of the Kalman Filter to Retail Sales Estimates

Monte Carlo Methodology and the Finite Sample Properties of Statistics for Testing Nested and Non-Nested Hypothesis

The U.S. External Deficit: Its Causes and Persistence

Debt Conversions: Economic Issues for Heavily Indebted Developing Countries

Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stabilization in a Developing Country

Monetary Policy in Taiwan, China

The Pricing of Forward Exchange Rates

Realignment of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: Aspects of the Adjustment Process in Japan

The Effect of Multilateral Trade Clearinghouses on the Demand for International Reserves

Protection and Retaliation: Changing the Rules of the Game

A Reassessment of Measures of the Dollar's Effective Exchange Value

International Duopoly with Tariffs

A Simple Simulation Model of International Bank Lending

Macroeconomic Instability of the Less Developed Country Economy when Bank Credit is Rationed

The U.S. External Deficit in the 1980's: An Empirical Analysis

An Analogue Model of Phase-Averaging Procedures

A Model of Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Deposit Insurance Assessments on Deposits at Foreign Branches of U.S. Banks

The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Exchange Rate Models when Coefficients are Allowed to Change

Financial Concentration and Development: An Empirical Analysis of the Venezuelan Case

The International Debt Situation

The Cost Competitiveness of the Europaper Market

Germany and the European Disease

An International Arbitrage Pricing Model with PPP Deviations

Tests of the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Using the Expected Second Moments Implied by Option Pricing

The United States International Asset and Liability Position: A Comparison of Flow of Funds and Commerce Department Presentations

The Structure and Properties of the FRB Multicountry Model Part I: Model Description and Simulation Results

Short-Term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence From Survey Data

Should Fixed Coefficients be Reestimated Every Period for Extrapolation?

Anticipated Fiscal Contraction: The Economic Consequences of the Announcement of Gramm-Rudman-Hollings

Incomplete Insurance, Irreversible Investment, and the Microfoundations of Financial Intermediation

An Empirical Analysis of Policy Coordination in the United States, Japan and Europe

Comovements in Aggregate and Relative Prices: Some Evidence on Neutrality

The Yen-Dollar Relationship: A Recent Historical Perspective

Labor Market Rigidities and Unemployment: The Case of Severance Costs

A Framework for Analyzing the Process of Financial Innovation

Is the ECU an Optimal Currency Basket?

Are Foreign Exchange Forecasts Rational? New Evidence From Survey Data

Taxation of Capital Gains on Foreign Exchange Transactions and the Non-Neutrality of Changes in Anticipated Inflation

The Stock Market and Exchange Rate Dynamics

Can Debtor Countries Service Their Debts? Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries

Post-Stimulation Analysis of Monte Carlo Experiments: Interpreting Pesaran's (1974) Study of Non-Nested Hypothesis Test Statistics

The Prospect of a Depreciating Dollar and Possible Tension Inside the EMS

A Method for Solving Systems of First Order Linear Homogeneous Differential Equations when the Elements of the Forcing Vector are Modelled as Step Functions

International Comparisons of Fiscal Policy: The OECD and the IMF Measures of Fiscal Impulse

An Analysis of the Welfare Implications of Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: An Intertemporal Model with an Application

Expected Fiscal Policy and the Recession of 1982

Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles

Assertion without Empirical Basis: An Econometric Appraisal of Monetary Trends in ... The United Kingdom

Canadian Financial Markets: The Government's Proposal for Reform

The U.K. Sector of the Federal Reserve's Multicountry Model: The Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Optimal Currency Basket in a World of Generalized Floating an Application to the Nordic Countries

Money Demand in Open Economies: A Currency Substitution Model for Venezuela

Comparing Costs of Note Issuance Facilities and Eurocredits

Some Implications of the President's Tax Proposals for U.S. Banks with Claims on Developing Countries

Was it Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation, 1973-1984

Monetary Stabilization Policy in an Open Economy

Anticipatory Capital Flows and the Behavior of the Dollar

Simulating Exchange Rate Shocks in the MPS and MCM Models: An Evaluation

Trade Policy for the Multiple Product Declining Industry

Long Memory Models of Interest Rates, The Term Structure, and Variance Bounds Tests

Currency Substitution and the New Divisia Monetary Aggregates: The U.S. Case

The International Transmission of Oil Price Effects and OPEC's Pricing Policy

U.S. Banks' Lending to Developing Countries: A Longer-Term View

Conditional Econometric Modelling: An Application to New House Prices in the United Kingdom

Loan Pushing: Doctrine and Theory

Postwar Financial Policies in Taiwan, China

Cooperative Policies Among the North, the South, and OPEC: An Optimal Control Approach

Foreign Exchange Constraints and Growth Possibilities in LDCs

The Determination of Front-End Fees on Syndicated Eurocurrency Credit

Monetary Policy Games and the Role of Private Information

The Macroeconomic Implications of Labor Contracting with Asymmetric Information

International Reprecussions of the U.S. Budget Deficit

Can Exchange Rate Predictability be Achieved Without Monetary Convergence? Evidence from the EMS

Domestic Saving, Current Accounts, and International Capital Mobility

Currency Substitution, Duality, and Exchange Rate Indeterminacy: An Empirical Analysis of the Venezuelan Experience

Federal Taxation and the Domestic-Foreign Asset Choice of a U.S. Bank

Oil Prices, Welfare Tradeoffs, and International Policy Coordination in a Three Region World Model: An Optimizing Approach

The Effects of Exhange Rate Variabilty on Output and Employment

The Foreign Sector in the U.S. Flow of Funds Accounts

A Kalecki-Keynes Model of World Trade, Finance, and Economic Growth

Oil Prices Effects in Theory and Practice

The Current Account of the United States, Japan, and Germany: A Cyclical Analysis

Exchange Rate Determination and Real Interest Rate Differentials Under Uncertainty

Alternative Financial Strategies: The Results of Some Policy Simulations with the Multi-Country Model

Deficit-Savings Ratios as Indicators of Interest-Rate Pressure: A Collection of Notes

Productive and Counterproductive Cooperative Monetary Policies

A Quantitative Reassessment of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence From Norway and the United Kingdom

The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target: Inflation Gains Versus Stabilization Costs

The International Transmission of Oil Price Effects

A Strategy To Resolve Mexico's Liquidity Crisis

An Analysis of External Debt Positions of Eight Developing Countries Through 1990

What's Wrong with Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Some Critical Issues and New Directions

The Impact of Supply Side Policy Rules on Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and the Terms of Trade: An Exploration Under Alternative Price Rules

The Rise and Fall of Sterling: Testing Alternative Models of Exhange Rate Determination

Exchange Rate Dynamics with Sluggish Prices Under Alternative Price Adjustment Rules

Purchasing Power Parity and Real After Tax Interest Rate Arbitrage

Country Risk, International Lending, and Exchange Rate Determination

Speculation and Hedging Using Options on Futures Contracts

Two Essays on Monetary Policy in an Interdependent World: I. Monetary Policy Games and the Consequences of Non-Cooperative Behavior; II. Some Aspects of the Adjustment Problem in an Interdependent World

Capital Accumulation and Foreign Investment Taxation

An Appraisal of the Chaps Payments Mechanism

Payments Systems: Theory and Policy

OPEC's Surplus and Real Interest Rates

Assessing Dynamic Properties of the MCM: A Simulation Approach

Alternative Approaches to General Equilibrium Modeling of Exchange Rates and Capital Flows: The MCM Experience

Wage Contracting, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Intervention Policy

The Risk Premium in the Market for Forward Foreign Exchange

The Canadian Sector of the Multi-Country Model

The Demand for Swiss Monetary Assets

The Behavior of Monetary Aggregates in Major Industrialized Countries

Formulation and Estimation of a Dynamic Model of Exchange Rate Determination: An Application of General Method of Moments Techniques

The Modern Theory of Forward Foreign Exchange: Some New Consistent Estimates Under Rational Expectations

The Swedish Economy in the 1970's: The Lessons of Accommodative Policies

The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?

How to Borrow Reasonably

The Role of Intervention Policy in Open Economy Financial Policy: A Macroeconomic Perspective

A Model of Stochastic Process Switching

An Accounting Framework and Some Issues for Modelling How Exchange Rates Respond to the News

Structural Lags and Stability in International Macromodels

J-Curves and Stability of the Foreign-Exchange Market

Dynamic Instability in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt to Clarify

Estimating the Hedging Effectiveness of Treasury Bill Futures: An Alternative Approach

Transitory Terms-of-Trade Shocks and the Current Account: The Case of Constant Time Preference

Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?

Exchange-Rate Regimes in Transition: Italy 1974

The Information Content of the Interest Rate and Optimal Monetary Policy

The Role of the Current Account in Exchange Rate Determination: A Comment on Rodriguez

Primary Energy Demand and Its Allocation Among Energy Sector Shares

Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline

Estimation of Portfolio-Balance Functions that are Mean-Variance Optimizing: The Mark and the Dollar

Capital Mobility and the Scope for Sterilization: Mexico in the 1970s

The Vicious Circle Argument and Its Relevance for the Italian Economy

Inflation, Indexation, and the Oil-Price Shock: The British Experience

Reserve Requirements on Eurocurrencey Deposits: Implications for the Stablization of Real Outputs

The Impact of an Oil Price Increase on Aggregate Supply

Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Are Any Fit to Survive?

Oil Price Shocks in a Portfolio-Balance Model

Oil Price Indexing-Versus Large Price Shocks: Macroeconomic Impacts

Some Consequences of U.S. Taxation of Foreign Banks

Net Foreign Asset Positions and Stability in a World Portfolio Balance Model

The Implications of the Internationalization of Banking for the Definition and Measurement of U. S. Credit and Monetary Aggregates

The British Banking System's Demand for Cash Reserves

International Portfolio Disturbances and Domestic Monetary Policy

Exchange Intervention Policy in a Multiple Country World

The Implications of a Floating Exchange Rate Regime: A Survey of Federal Reserve Systems Papers

Transversality Conditions in Infinite Horizon Models

Factors Determining Exchange Rates: The Roles of Relative Price Levels, Balances of Payments, Interest Rates and Risk

A Cross Country Study of the Relationship Between Discount Rate Changes and Exchange Rate Movements

Three Roles of the Forward Foreign Exchange Market

Fluctuations in the Dollar: A Model of Nominal and Real Exchange Rate Determination

Endogenous Technological Change and International Technology Transfer In a Ricardian Trade Model

Foreign Assistance Programs and Policies of the United States

Rational Expectations, Risk Premia, and the Market for Spot and Forward Exchange

Reserve Requirements on Eurocurrency Deposits: Implications for Eurodeposit Multipliers, Control of a Monetary Aggregate, and Avoidance of Redenomination Incentives

Modeling Bilateral Exchange Rates in A Multi-Country Model

Restricting the Scale of Government in a Small Open Economy

Expectations and the Adjustment of Trade Flows Under Floating Exchange Rates: Leads, Lags and the J-Curve

Private Sector Effects of Government Expenditures on Nontraded Goods Versus Direct Employment of Labor in a Small Open Economy

Wealth Effects in the New Neoclassical Models

Rational Destablizing Speculation and Exchange Invervention Policy

Expected and Unexpected Changes in Exchange Rates: The Roles of Relative Price Levels, Balance-of-Payments Factors, Interest Rates and Risk

Stability in Financial and Labor Markets: Is There a Tradeoff?

Sticky Nominal Wages and the Optimal Employment Rule

U.S. Banks, Exchange Markets, and the Dollar, September - November 1978

U.S. Banks: The Slowdown in International Lending

Dynamic Factor Demand Schedules for Labor and Capital Under Rational Expectations

Stabilization Policy and Vicious and Virtuous Circles

Protection, Real Wage Resistance and Employment: An Analysis of Some Proposals of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group

A Test of the Existence of the Risk Premium in the Foreign Exchange Market vs. The Hypothesis of Perfect Substitulability

A Technique for Extracting a Measure of Expected Inflation From the Interest Rate Term Structure

A Simple Model of the Welfare Effects of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market

The U.S. Sector of the Multi-Country Model and Its Mulipliers

Expected and Unexpected Changes in Exchange Rates

The Impact of Changes in the Federal Reserve's Discount Rate on the Dollar's Foreign Exchange Value

Balance-of-Payments Adjustment from a U.S. Perspective: The Lessons of the 1970s

The Dynamic Effects of Exchange Market Intervention Policy: Two Extreme Views and a Synthesis

The Portfolio-Balance Model of Exchange Rates

U.S. Direct Investment Receipts and Payments: Models and Projections

Testing for Rational Expectations in Foreign Exchange Markets

Assessing International Interdependence With a Multi-Country Model

Wage Indexation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Macro-Economic Policy

The Real Rate of Interest on International Financial Markets

The Apparent Effects of Recent IMF Stabilization Programs

U.S. Banks and the North American Euro-Currency Market

Financial Policies in Open Economies

Covered-Interest Arbitrage: Unexpolited Profits: Comment

The Japanese Sector of the Multi-Country Model

Monetary Policy Under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimes: Simulations with Muliti-Country Model

Optimal International Borrowing With Default

Impact of the Dollar Depreciation of the U.S. Price Level: An Analytical Survey of Empirical Estimates

The Role of Central Banks in the Development of Securities Markets

Distributed Lag Order Determination

Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Interest Disparities

U.S. Offices of Foreign Banks: The Recent Experience

A Portfolio-Balance Rational-Expectations Model of the Dollar-Mark Rate: May 1973 - June 1977

The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes Upon International Price Discrimination

The Macroeconomic Effects of Commondity Market Disruptions in Open Economies

The Italian Economic Crises of the 1970's

The Stability of Income and Price Elasticities in U.S. Trade, 1957-1977

The Short-Run Relation Between Growth and Inflation in Latin America: A Quasi Rational or Consistent Expectations Approach

The Effects of Foreign Aid on Optimal Savings and Debt

U.S. Demand for Imported and Domestically-Produced Foods: An Investigation of Intertemporal and Cross Substitution

A Multi-Country Model of the International Influences on the U. S. Economy: Preliminary Results

Inflation and Unemployment in Open Economies

The U.S. Activities of Foreign Banks: An Analytic Survey

Approaches for Assessing the Risk Involved in Lending To Developing Countries

Transfers and the Price Level Under Fixed, Free, and Indexed Exchange Rates--A Monetary Approach

The Process of Exchange-Rate Determination: A Survey of Popular Views and Recent Models

Staving Off the Backstop: Dynamic Limit-Pricing with a Kinked Demand Curve

Interest Rates and Inflation in Argentina

Cyclical Fluctuations in the Share of Corporate Profits in National Income

Critical Determinants of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Open Economy

On Testing the Significance of a Subset of Coefficients in a Set of Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Using Mixed Estimation

Estimating Consumer Import Demand Equations

Differential Responses to Price and Exchange Rate Influences in the Foreign Trade of Selected Industrial Countries

J. Laurence Laughlin and the Quantity Theory of Money

The Denationalization of Money: A Review

The Identification of Destabilizing Foreign Exchange Speculation

Forecasting U.S. Export and Import Prices and Volumes in a Changing World Economy

Price Determination in the Multi-Country Model

The Goods Market and the Labor Market of the Multi-Country Model

Alternatives For Modeling The World Outside The United States

Balance of Payment Equations and Exchange Rate Determination

Asset Markets and Interest Rate Detemination in the Multi-Country Model

Modeling the International Influences on the U.S. Economy: A Multi-Country Approach

A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Post-War Canadian Experience

The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Prices and Volume of International Trade

Personal Saving Behavior in Five Major Industralized Countries

The Past, Present, and Future of the International Monetary System: A Review Essay

Total Import and Gross Output Demands in the Context of a Multisector General Equilibrium Model

Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil Versus Turbulent Periods

Theory and Implications of Currency Substitution

Linking to the MPS Price Sector to International Price Disturbances

How Far Can We Push The "Law of One Price"?

Central Bank Operations in Foreign and Domestic Assets Under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates

Have Geometric Lag Hypothesis Outlived Their Time? Some Evidence in a Monte Carlo Framework

Market Anticipations, Government Policy, and the Price of Gold

Note on Interest Parity, Eurocurrencies and Capital Controls

Note on Key Currency Intervention Systems

The Strength of U.S. Machinery Exports in 1975: An Analysis of Price Competitiveness and Special Demand Factors

Rules for Intervention Without Fixed Parities

Analysis of Short-Run Exchange Rate Behavior March, 1973 to September, 1975

Hirshleifer on Speculation

The Current Status of Economic Integration in the European Community

No End to the "Age of Zinc": The Length of the Optimal Program When Depletion Affects Extraction Costs

Gains From Trade Under Uncertainty, Once Again

The Asian Dollar Market

Estimation of a Dynamic Demand Function for Gasoline with Different Schemes of Parameter Variation

Foreign Exchange Operations of U.S. Banks

Monetary Correction and Interest Rates

The Analysis of Exchange Rate Movements: Neutrality Results and the Role of Expectations

Risk in Foreign and Domestic Lending Activities of U.S. Banks

A Data Base Improvement for Analysis of U.S. Imports and Exports: Price Indices by End-Use, 1958: 1-1974:4

Output, Inflation, and the Balance of Payments in a Small, Fixed-Exchange Rate Economy: Tests with Data for Korea, 1960-1973

Nash-Cournot Equilibrium for an Exhaustible Resource Like Oil

The Allocation of "Oil Deficits"

Theory and Estimation of the Demand for Imports of Consumer Goods

Dock Strike Adjustment Factors for Major Categories of U.S. Imports and Exports, 1958-1974

Simultaneous Determination of the U.S. Balance of Payments and Exchange Rates - An Exploratory Report

Some Observations on the World-Wide Intensification of Inflation

The Lagged Adjustment of U.S. Trade to Prices and Income--A Commentary

Price Linkage in an Interdependent World Economy: Price Responses to Exchange Rate and Activity Changes

International Souces of Domestic Inflation

Profitable Speculation, Price Stability, and Welfare

Comment on "The Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment on International Investments" by Dennis E. Logue and Thomas D. Willett

The Effects of Recent Exchange Rate Changes on the U.S. Trade Balance

The Energy Content of U.S. Exports and Imports

Empirical Research on Financial Capital Flows

Comparing U.S. Company Bond Issue Costs in the U.S. and Euro-Bond Markets

Simulations with Model of the U.S. Balance of Payments: The Impact of the Smithsonian Exchange Rate Agreement

Two Multi-Level Models of U.S. Merchandise Trade, 1958.I-1971.IV, and Post-Sample Analysis, 1972.I-1973.II: An Evaluation of a Workable Forecasting System

The Emerging Exchange-Rate System (Early 1974)

The Price Effects of Exchange Rate Changes: Models, Empirical Evidence, and Notes on Aggregation Bias

Exchange-Rate Flexibility and the Efficiency of the Foreign-Exchange Markets

On the Balance-of-Payments Effects of Direct Investment and the Efficacy of Controls: Comments on and Extensions of an Article by Peter H. Lindert

The Effect of Changes in Economic Acitivity on U.S. Trade Flows

Direct Investment and Trade: An Analysis of the Export Displacement Effect

A Model of Arbitrage and Short-Term Capital Flows

New Trends in the Energy-Petroleum Situation of Europe and Japan

Balance of Payments Aims and Structures in the 1970's

The Energy Crisis and the Less-Developed Countries

A Note on the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments

The Effects of Foreign Inflation on Domestic Prices and the Relative Price Advantage of Exchange Rate Changes

Investor Evaluation of Foreign and Domestic Risk

Structural Change in the Euro-Dollar Market: Evidence From a Two-Equation Model

"Imported Inflation" and the Balance of Payments

The Rate of Monetization in the Less Developed Countries

Direct Investment, Research Intensity, and Profitability

The Multinational Firm and the Determinants of Investment

The Distribution of West European Trade Under Alternative Tariff Policies

Devaluation and the Balance of Trade Under Flexible Wages

SDRs, Interest and the AID Link: Further Analysis

A Review of Current U.S. Position in Petroleum

A Two Country Model of Financial Capital Movements as Stock Adjustments with Emphasis on the Effects of Central Bank Policy

The Foreign Term-Lending Activities of U.S. Banks

Price Competitiveness in Export Trade Among Industrial Countries

Postwar Trends in Income and Deposit Velocity in the LDCs

The Financing of the Multi-National Firm: Comment and Extension

The Future of Private Enterprise in the Developing Countries

SDR Creation and the Real-Bills Doctrine

A Crisis in Critical Commodities

The Effects of the Substitution of Dollars for Gold for the Distribution of the Adjustment Burden and the Control of the World Money Supply

Forward Exchange Rates as Estimates of Exchange Rate Expectations: A Comment

A New Approach to Foreign Aid

Notes on Some Aspects of the Effects of the Recent Exchange Rate Changes on the U.S. Trade Balance

The Responsiveness of Demand Policies to Balance of Payments: Postwar Patterns

A Note on the Mix of Policies and the Theory of Capital Movements

Economic Reforms in South Vietnam

The So-Called Devaluation Bias in a System of Adjustable Pegs: The Theory of the Devaluation Bias

Patterns of Housing Experience During Periods of Credit Restraint in Industrialized Countries

Some Policy Aspects of Foreign Operations of International Banks

Trade Data of OECD Countries by End-Use Commodity Categories

The Case for the Par-Value System, 1971

The Use of Interest Rate Policies as a Stimulus to Economic Growth

The McKinnon Portfolio Balance Model

Devaluation-Bias and the Bretton Woods System

Explaining Changes in Euro_Dollar Positions; A Study of Banks in Four European Countries