U.S. Banks, Exchange Markets, and the Dollar, September - November 1978
.International Finance Discussion Papers Number 151
March 1980
U.S. BANKS, EXCHANGE MARKETS, AND THE DOLLAR, SEPTEMBER - NOVEMBER 1978
Barbara R. Lowrey and Ralph W. Smith, Jr.
NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment by a writer that he has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors.
U.S. Banks, Exchange Markets, and the Dollar, September - November 1978
by
Barbara R. Lowrey and Ralph W. Smith, Jr. Division of International Finance, Board of Governors
I. Introduction and Summa ry
At the request of the Senate Banking Committee, the Federal Reserve System conducted in the spring of 1979 a survey of major U.S. banks' daily foreign exchange trading activity and position-taking during the September 15- November 15, 1978 period of exchange market turbulence. The survey was requested in hopes of shedding additional light on allegations that the speculative activities of large trading banks were responsible for the severe selling pressure on the dollar in October 1978 which led to the adoption of the November 1 package, including a tightening of monetary policy. This study analyzes the results of that survey. Actual aggregated data submitted to the Senate Banking Committee are appended. The principal analytical findings are:
(1) The daily data for the two-month period present a picture of bank position-taking that is consistent with that presented by the regular Treasury FC reports on bank positions as of the close-of-business each Wednesday.
| (2) Banks' net positions and daily changes in those net positions were generally small when compared to their gross foreign currency positions, to their outstanding exchange contracts, and to their overall volume of exchange market transactions.
(3) Statistical tests show essentially no correlation between bank positions and dollar exchange rates during the period.
" The authors wish to acknowledge the help of Frank McCormick, formerly of the Board staff, for his major contribution in designing and overseeing the survey on which this article is based; David Laughton, for his assistance in computer programming; and Richard Meese, for his econometric suggestions.
We also wish to thank the members of the International Reports Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York who collected and verified the survey data. This study was submitted along with the testimony of Henry C. Wallich
to the Subcommittee on International Finance of the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs of the U.S. Senate, December 14, 1979.
(4) The volume of exchange market transactions by this group of banks, both interbank and with non-banks, was fairly stable over the period.
There is no statistical evidence of any relationship between the volume of transactions and decreases in the value of the dollar.
(5) There is a significant positive correlation between the variability of dollar exchange rates and the volume of trading. However, statistical tests were generally unable to provide evidence that higher volume "caused" greater exchange rate variability.
(6) About half of respondent banks reported that they had no formal daylight position limits (as opposed to close-of-business limits). Of those which did have daylight limits, none reported a change in those limits during the period.
(7) Quarterly foreign exchange trading profits of the banks generally rose over the period 1976-1978. This appears to have been related to the increase
in variability of exchange rates over that period.
II. Nature of the data collected.
Five separate report forms were sent to the fifteen U.S. banks which do the largest amount of foreign currency business. Both domestic and foreign offices of the banks were included, along with their Edge Act subsidiaries.
The U.S. agencies and branches of five foreign banks were also asked to complete the relevant forms, although the figures reported here do not include data for these foreign banks since the analysis has focused on banks' trading activity and positions on a globally consolidated basis.
Form SBC-1 requested information on banks' home (U.S.) office foreign
currency assets and liabilities, outstanding exchange contracts bought and sold,
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and the net positions resulting from the difference between a bank's assets plus exchange contracts bought and its liabilities including exchange contracts sold. Data on the total volume of exchange contracts concluded each day, and on the volume concluded with non-bank customers were also requested. Separate reports were filed for each of five currencies: Canadian dollars, German marks, Japanese yen, Swiss francs, and U.K. pounds.
Form SBC-2 requested the same information for U.S. banks' foreign offices. Definitions of positions in forms SBC-1 and SBC-2 were designed to be consistent with those used by the Treasury in its weekly position data reports. The data from forms SBC-1 and SBC-2 were combined to obtain banks' positions on a consolidated basis. Aggregated data for the 15 banks for each foreign currency are reported in Tables 1.A through 1.E. Table 1.F gives the sum of the dollar equivalents of the five foreign currencies.
Forms SBC-3 and SBC-4 requested information on banks! daylight trading limits and on banks' procedures for supervising the observance of those limits. A summary of those responses is given in the Summary Notes attached to the report,
Information on banks' quarterly profits from foreign exchange transactions for the years 1976-1978 was reported on Form SBC-5. Thirteen of the 15 U.S. banks surveyed report such data publicly, and these data are presented
in Table 8.
III. Analysis of the data.
A. Positions. Two major questions were posed in analyzing the banks' net positions in foreign currencies: 1) Do daily data give a different picture of bank
behavior from that already available from the Wednesday data reported to the
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Treasury? and, 2) Is there a significant relationship between banks' net foreign currency positions and changes in the exchange rate?
Visual examination of all daily figures compared with the Wednesday data does not suggest any consistent change or adjustment in banks' positions for window-dressing purposes on Wednesdays (see Charts 1.A through 1.F). There is no indication that banks reduce or increase their net positions on Wednesdays relative to their normal business practice. This is also true for the five agencies and branches of foreign banks, whose positions are not included in the consolidated banks' data in Tables 1.A-1.F, but who do file reports weekly with the U.S. Treasury. Moreover, formal statistical tests comparing the daily series with the Wednesday series show no statistically significant difference between them (see Table 2).
The daily figures confirm what the data from the weekly Treasury FC forms have indicated: banks' net positions are generally small, particularly in comparison with banks' foreign currency assets and liabilities, and even in comparison with their outstanding foreign exchange contracts. The Treasury data suggest that the changes in banks' position from week to week have also been relatively small, and the daily information does not give contrary evidence. This survey contributed the additional information that daily changes in banks' positions are very small relative to the volume of foreign exchange trading.
| Regression analysis was used to see whether there is a statistically significant relationship between banks' net positions at close-of-business and exchange rates .~! ‘Equations relating the level of the exchange rate to the level of banks' positions in the relevant currency showed a significant relationship ~ I/ All regressions using position or volume data were run with amounts expressed alternatively in foreign currency units and in dollar equivalents at current exchange rates. Results were not significantly different. Regres-
sion results reported in this article are those using dollar equivalents as listed in Tables 1.A through 1.F.
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for three of the five foreign currencies. However, these equations uniformly exhibit a serious statistical deficiency (high autocorrelation), which results in an overestimate of the degree of significance of the relationship. In order to correct for this statistical deficiency the equations were re-estimated in first difference form -- changes in exchange rates were regressed on changes
in positions. It was found that only in the case of the yen was there a statistically significant, though weak , relationship. (Regression results are shown in Table 3.)
This correlation in the case of the yen prompted more elaborate statistical testing to attempt to establish a direction of causation -- is the variation in the exchange rate caused by the variation in position, or does the variation in position cause the variation in the exchange rate.</
These tests produced no evidence that, for any currency, causation ran from positions: to exchange rates. For two of the five currencies (the mark and the Swiss franc) there is evidence that causation ran from exchange rates to positions. (See Tables 4.A and 4.B.)
In summary, there seems to be little correlation between the banks' positions and the exchange rates. This does not mean, of course, that changes in banks' positions had absolutely no effect on exchange rates. It merely reflects the fact that the variation in banks' positions was so small relative to the variation in other market participants’ positions as to be statistically "2/7 These tests are based on a comparison of the predictive power of an equation in which the dependent variable is explained by only past values of itself with an equation in which past values of other explanatory variables are also included. If the inclusion of these other variables does not sig-
nificantly improve the predictive power of the equation, the additional explanatory variables are said not to cause the dependent variable.
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insignificant. There is no indication that changes in U.S. banks' positions "drove" exchange rates in one way or the other during the September 15 through November 15 period. Indeed, in the period of greatest downward pressure on the dollar in the last half of October 1978, banks‘ aggregate net position in foreign currencies declined by nearly $1 billion equivalent, tending to moderate rather
than exaggerate the dollar's decline.
B. Volume.
The daily volume of transactions, total and non-bank, is reported in columns 6 and 7 of Tables 1.A-1.F and shown on Charts 2.A-2.F. As can be seen in the charts, trading activity remained fairly stable throughout this two-month period. Non-bank transactions were very small relative to the total, accounting for roughly 7-1/2 per cent of all transactions.
Regression analysis shows no statistically significant relationship between (algebraic) changes in exchange rates and the volume of trading. That is, no evidence to support the hypothesis that high volumes of trading contributed,
somehow, to the decline of the dollar. However, there is a significant relationship
between the variability in exchange rates, i.e., absolute changes, and the volume of both interbank and non-bank exchange market trading. (See Table 5.) In this respect, the exchange market appears to be similar to other well-developed financial asset markets in that new information that would tend to affect prices may be evaluated differently by various market participants and result in both a large volume of transactions and a large change in the rate, either up or down. For example, in the stock market days of large volume are also associated with large changes in prices.
More elaborate statistical analysis provides no evidence that a large
volume of interbank trading "caused" exchange rates to change. (See Table 6.A.)
There is little evidence that variability of exchange rates influences the volume of interbank trading. (See Table 6.B.)
The same type of analysis also provides no evidence that a higher volume of trading by non-banks caused greater changes in exchange rates. (See Table 7.A.) There is some indication that the volume of non-bank trading was influenced by the absolute size of the previous day's change in the exchange rate. (See Table 7.B.) However, given the results reported earlier on the lack of significnnce in the relationship between exchange rates and the banks' positions, the data provided by this survey do not support the hypothesis that
the banks "drove" the rate and triggered a reaction by non-banks.
C. Profits.
Bank profits from foreign exchange trading are reported in Table 8. These profits increased substantially over the period. With only 12 quarterly observations it is difficult to make strong statistical inferences, but an equation that relates banks' foreign exchange profits to the average daily absolute change in the value of the dollar has greater explanatory power than one in which profits are related to the net change in the exchange rate over a quarter.
The reason why banks appear to be able to make greater foreign exchange profits when markets are volatile than when markets are calm seems to lie in
the nature of these banks' role in the exchange markets. These banks are
all active dealers. As dealers, their role is to stand ready to take shortterm positions or "make a market" in foreign currencies in order to accommodate quickly temporary imbalances between supply and demand by other market par-
ticipants -- exporters, importers, international investors. To make a profit
from taking a position, a dealer has to buy at a price lower than that at
which he sells. The better a dealer can anticipate future price movements,
the more favorably can he position himself to take advantage of those move-
ments. And the more rapidly he can turn over a position of given profitability,
the greater his total profits .2/ Bank dealers in the foreign exchange market make profits by taking
small positions and turning them over frequently. Since volume, or turnover,
seems to be positively correlated with exchange-rate volatility, and since
dealers are better able to anticipate very short-run price movements than
are other market participants, it is perhaps not surprising that greater
profits tend to be associated with periods of greater exchange-rate volatility.
3/ The data do not allow us to empirically determine the relative importance for profits of sheer volume, on the one hand, and shrewd position-taking, on the other. A simple cross-section regression of individual banks' profits against their volume suggests that variation in volume is a significant, though by no means exhaustive, determinant of variation in profits, i.e., it suggests that position-taking is also important.
Summary Notes on Forms SCB-3 and SCB-4
Part 1: Daylight Limits.
Banks were asked about their daylight trading limits and whether these limits were changed during the reporting period; these questions were posed in order to make inferences on whether banks' daylight positions, in contrast to their net overnight positions, changed dramatically during this period.
Of the banks included in this survey, about one half indicated that they have no formal daylight limits. Several respondents, however, emphasized that their traders' daylight positions were unlikely to be very different from the overnight positions since it was expected that overnight positions could be achieved without difficulty or substantial risk.
Of those banks which did have formal daylight positions, none changed
their limits during September 15 through November 15, 1978.
Part 2: Monitoring of traders' positions.
All respondents indicated that their banks had extensive procedures for monitoring the open positions of traders. Traders in individual currencies are expected to maintain a running tabulation on a blotter on which each trans- . action, the exchange rate, and the customer's name are recorded. Traders are supervised by a chief trader, who is continually in the room with the individual traders and may frequently check the trading blotters. The position of the trading room may be reported several times during the day to a senior foreign exchange officer or to the branch manager. These officials are responsible for verifying the foreign exchange transactions and positions at the close of business each day. These officers in turn report to higher-level officials and in many cases give the bank's Treasurer a report daily on the bank's foreign
exchange positions.
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Table 2
Comparison of Means of
Banks' Positions in Foreign Currencies (millions of $ equivalent)
Mean of Wednesdays Mean of other Days t-ratio Canadian dollar -43.33 -39.60 -937 German Mark 332.14 359.61 . 866 Japanese yen 123.72 119.91 2935 Swiss franc -31.62 -24.43 -926 U.K. pound -275.71 -278.41 1.072 Total of Foreign currencies 105.20 137.09 968
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NOTE: Critical value of t = 2.02 i.e., if t< 2.02 the means are not statistically different.
t-ratio calculated as MyMao
where M = mean
V = variance
n = number of observations subscript W = Wednesday
All other
AO
Table 3
Regression Results Estimated Relationship Between the Absolute Percentage Change in the Exchange Rate and the Volume of Trading Activity
(1) Interbank Trading: |%A xR. | = a + bIBVoL,
—2
Coefficient "b" t-Statistic R_ D. W. Canadian Dollar -0002 2.52 -11 1.43 German Mark .0002 2.39 .10 2.10 Japanese Yen .0002 1.70 -04 2.27 Swiss Franc -0006 2.10 .07 2.15 U.K. Pound .0001 0.90 -.00 1.43
Weighted-Ave. Dollar -00008 3.14 17 1.96
(2) Trading with Nonbanks: |%4 XR_| = a + bNBVo1,
Canadian Dollar 001 — 4.43 31 1.57
German Mark .001 1.46 02 1.94 Japanese Yen -003 .1.30 .O1 2.14 Swiss Franc — - 006 2.05 ' 07 2.01 U.K. Pound .003 3.71 23 1.88 Weighted-Ave. Dollar .0008 3.58 .22 1.99 Note- % AXR| = absolute percentage change in the exchange rate.
For the weighted-average dollar equation, the exchange rate was the FRB index and the volume was the sum of the volume in 5 foreign currencies. The critical value for the t-statistic at the .05 significance level is 2.02. Durbin-Watson statistics are generally satisfactory, i.e., they do not indicate serious auto-correlation.
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Canadian Dollar German Mark Japanese Yen Swiss Franc U.K. Pound
Weighted-Ave. Dollar
Canadian Dollar German Mark Japanese Yen Swiss Franc U.K. Pound
Weighted-Ave. Dollar
Table 5
Regression Results Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Banks' Foreign Currency Positions
(1) XR =a+b FCP t t < 2 ' uy 2 : —=2 Coefficient ''b t-Statistic Rg. 1.13 3.75 23 -0.32 1.83 .05 0.009 3.87 -24 -1.03 1.41 .02 2.60 2.74 13 . 00003 .02 -.02 (2) % &AXR = a+ bAFCP t t .0009 0.41 -.02 .0002 0.14 -.02 .01 2.86 215 .003 42 -.02 .002 1.02 -001 -0005 0.71 -.O1
0.804 0.237 0.304 0.301 0.586
0.15
1.99 1.72 1.57 1.62 2.05
1.43
Note-XR = exchange rate in U.S. dollars per foreign currency unit; weightedaverage dollar is FRB index.
FCP = aggregate of 15 banks' foreign currency positions in millions of $ equivalent at current exchange rates; in the weighted-average dollar
equation, FCP is the sum of positions in 5 foreign currencies.
The critical value for the t-statistic at the .05 significance level is
2.02.
If the Durbin-Watson statistic is below 1.45, there is indication of
serious autocorrelation which biases the estimates.
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Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1980, February 29). U.S. Banks, Exchange Markets, and the Dollar, September - November 1978. Ifdp, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/ifdp_1980-151
@misc{wtfs_ifdp_1980_151,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {U.S. Banks, Exchange Markets, and the Dollar, September - November 1978},
year = {1980},
month = {Feb},
howpublished = {Ifdp, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/ifdp_1980-151},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}