'Here, Dollars, Dollars...' -- Estimating Currency Demand and Worldwide Currency Substitution

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9 Wdeohv dqg Judskv Wdeoh 4= Fxuuhqf| Vwrfnv lq Vhohfwhg Frxqwulhv Frxqwu| Fxuuhqf| Srsxodwlrq Shu fdslwd fxuuhqf| +eloolrqv ri grooduv, +ploolrqv, +grooduv, Dujhqwlqd 44149 671:: 6;31;5 Dxvwuld 47144 ;186 498<17; Eud}lo 46197 4881;5 ;:184 Fdqdgd 54179 5<194 :571:4 F}hfk Uhsxeolf 61<6 43166 6;3164 Ghqpdun 8179 8156 5:914 Iudqfh 8419< 8;136 ;<31:4 Jhupdq| 4981:5 ;4197 535<1<7 Kxqjdu| 61<4 43159 6;3198 Lfhodqg 313; 315: 5<5194 Lqgld 68137 <681:7 6:177 Luhodqg 51;: 618; ;33179 Lwdo| 93167 8:14< 4388133 Mdsdq 7<417< 4571<9 6<66155 Ph{lfr <17; <317< 4371:6 Qhwkhuodqgv 561:; 48178 486<175 Qhz ]hdodqg 198 6187 5:9143 Srodqg ;138 6;18< 53;1:3 Uxvvld 4:1:4 47;147 44<199 Vdxgl Dudeld 44184 :178 98<16: Vlqjdsruh 91<< 51<< 566:1<: Voryhqld 3184 41<< 587155 Vrxwk Diulfd 841<; 74157 4593167 Vzlw}huodqg 5:1<5 :137 6<99179 Wkdlodqg 44173 93154 4;<16; Xqlwhg Nlqjgrp 6617; 8;159 8:719: Xqlwhg Vwdwhv 6;514 596136 478519< Vrxufh= Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqhwdu| Ixqg/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Ilqdqfldo Vwdwlvwlfv/ Iheuxdu| 4<<: +iru |hdu 4<<8,1 4:

Wdeoh 5= Xqlwhg Vwdwhv Krxvhkrog Vxuyh|v rq Fxuuhqf| Kroglqjv Shufhqwdjh ri fxuuhqf| vwrfn Mxqh 4<;7 Mxqh 4<;9 Pd| 4<<8 Krxvhkrog Wudqvdfwlrqv 48=9 48=6 :=5 Krxvhkrog Krdugv 5=3 4=< 4=5 Wdeoh 6= Frpsdulvrq ri wkh Uhodwlyh Lpsruwdqfh ri Sd|phqw Lqvwuxphqwv Rwkhu Wkdq Fdvk dv d shufhqwdjh ri fdvkohvv wudqvdfwlrqv Frxqwulhv \hdu Fkhtxhv Fuhglw Ghelw Fdug Sdshuohvv dqg Gluhfw Fdug Sd|phqwv Sdshu0edvhg Ghelwv Sd|phqwv dw SRV Fuhglw Wudqvdfwlrqv Fdqdgd 4<;6 <413 :13 0 Lqvljql(cid:31)fdqw 5 4<;: :5173 56183 3133 5193 4183 4<<4 971; 5:1; 0 61< 618 4<<8 791< 7313 0 :17 81; Xqlwhg Vwdwhv 4<;6 <;19 :15 0 31< ?4 4<;: ;51<3 48163 3143 414 3183 4<<4 ;419 4913 0 419 31; 4<<8 :918 5314 0 516 415 Qhwkhuodqgv 4<;6 5516 Lqvljql(cid:31)fdqw 0 4819 9513 4<;: 4<133 ?3183 ?3183 97183 49183 4<<4 4716 41; 0 9416 5519 4<<8 81< 4416 0 8919 5916 Jhupdq| 4<;6 4413 Lqvljql(cid:31)fdqw 0 6513 8:13 4<;: ;193 3193 3133 871;3 69133 4<<4 <19 41; 0 8416 6:16 4<<8 :13 619 0 7;1; 7319 Vzlw}huodqg 4<;6 4319 318 0 31; ;;13 4<;: 461;3 6133 3163 :<1<3 6133 4<<4 817 <1: 0 ;314 51; 4<<8 513 4;17 0 :916 616 Iurp wkh ELV/ (cid:19)Sd|phqw V|vwhpv lq Hohyhq Ghyhorshg Frxqwulhv1(cid:20) 4;

Wdeoh 7= Fxuuhqf| Ghpdqg Frlqwhjudwlqj Yhfwruv= Hvwlpdwhv dqg Whvwv/ Prqwko| Gdwd +vwdqgdug huuruv lq eudfnhwv, G|qdplf ROV2JOV hvwlpdwlrq htxdwlrq= +Uhdo Fxuuhqf| Edodqfhv,@(cid:15) .(cid:15) +Uhwdlo Vdohv,.(cid:15) +Lqwhuhvw Udwh, f (cid:129) 2 .g +O,+Uhwdlo Vdohv,.g +O,+Lqwhuhvw Udwh,.h -7 U | Fdqdgd Qhwkhuodqgv Dxvwuld Hvwlpdwru (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2 VROV 318;9 0315: 03148 31:43 31696 03157 QOOV 41497 441<9 0418; 3155; 414:3 05157 GROV 31<4: 0414: 03165 41486 3186: 031;7 +3=3;7, +3=67;, +3=43:, +3=793, +3=367, +3=75:, GJOV 315;3 03165 31468 0316: 31365 0318: +3=368, +3=534, +3=385, +3=488, +3=369, +3=:9;, SEVU 31;<4 0413: 03165 413;7 31858 031:9 +3=3<6, +3=6;9, +3=439, +3=777, +3=375, +3=86;, SKIP 31::: 031:9 03159 41353 317:: 03193 +3=399, +3=65<, +3=3;7, +3=6<<, +3=363, +3=7:;, MRK+5, 41:<4 07138 05187 71:34 31::4 04178 +3=566, +3=;98, +4=373, +5=645, +3=37:, +3=7<<, MRK+6, 41;:9 08146 0515< 51:<6 31:3; 04164 +3=673, +4=749, +3=<37, +4=;56, +3=379, +3=864, Xqlwhg Vwdwhv Jhupdq| Vzlw}huodqg Hvwlpdwru (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2 VROV 31:;: 0417< 319<6 317<6 31748 04166 QOOV 4155: 31:<9 51844 4515; 41;7; 6159< GROV 41476 041<7 41354 03163 31:83 04198 +3=3:5, +3=58:, +3=47:, +3=<93, +3=3:8, +3=769, GJOV 31586 03179 31358 03168 3148: 03193 +3=375, +3=4<:, +3=36;, +3=5;4, +3=354, +3=779, SEVU 41463 041;; 4133: 0314< 319:7 04196 +3=3;7, +3=5<8, +3=47<, +3=<:4, +3=3;6, +3=84;, SKIP 4136; 041;4 31<58 3134: 31887 04188 +3=39:, +3=5:<, +3=454, +3=;<:, +3=384, +3=7;7, MRK+5, 4195: 05188 6144; 08155 418:9 05139 +3=46;, +3=737, +3=:;;, +6=4<5, +3=4<4, +3=:8;, MRK+6, 418<; 05184 61763 0;199 41958 041;< +3=49:, +3=837, +4=4:7, +8=589, +3=554, +3=;8<, 4<

Wdeoh 8= Fxuuhqf| Ghpdqg Frlqwhjudwlqj Yhfwruv= Hvwlpdwhv dqg Whvwv/ Odujh Ghqrplqdwlrq Eloov +vwdqgdug huuruv lq eudfnhwv, Fdqdgd Qhwkhuodqgv Dxvwuld Hvwlpdwru (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2 VROV 41::7 03133 313;: 41893 31<:5 03149 QOOV 61575 04188 06189 0519< 51358 051<< GROV 61568 061:< 3138: 41<75 41884 05144 +3=539, +3=;8:, +3=4:9, +3=:89, +3=394, +3=:;3, GJOV 31536 03153 31494 03176 31558 03197 +3=357, +3=483, +3=38:, +3=4::, +3=364, +3=9;;, SEVU 61489 0617< 31385 41;67 41844 041<4 +3=597, +4=3<4, +3=4:6, +3=:55, +3=3<9, +4=553, SKIP 51963 0513; 31399 41<35 41674 04163 +3=4<7, +3=<96, +3=469, +3=97:, +3=3:4, +4=445, MRK+5, 719<5 0;134 04:18 06196 41<68 06138 +3=697, +4=687, +6<=85, +4<=43, +3=3:3, +3=:95, MRK+6, 71977 0:1;; 0;186 0716: 41<97 06165 +3=6<5, +4=7:6, +<=<33, +43=75, +3=3;;, +3=<8<, Wdeoh 9= Fxuuhqf| Ghpdqg Frlqwhjudwlqj Yhfwruv= Hvwlpdwhv dqg Whvwv/ Vpdoo Ghqrplqdwlrq Eloov +vwdqgdug huuruv lq eudfnhwv, Fdqdgd Qhwkhuodqgv Dxvwuld Hvwlpdwru (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:15) (cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2 VROV 31354 316<3 03197 05184 031:6 413:; QOOV 0515: 0816: 06145 41663 04177 6188: GROV 0314; 31<36 0413; 0515< 0415< 61373 +3=439, +3=76<, +3=57;, +4=398, +3=388, +3=:36, GJOV 3164; 03157 313:6 03163 03139 31393 +3=378, +3=58<, +3=386, +3=489, +3=388, +4=6:;, SEVU 03149 31;6< 0413: 0514< 04159 51<58 +3=438, +3=769, +3=57<, +4=36;, +3=3;5, +4=377, SKIP 03143 319<3 031<6 0518: 0413; 51595 +3=3:;, +3=6<3, +3=4<9, +3=<66, +3=399, +4=36;, MRK+5, 041;8 91477 0714: 51745 04184 61;65 +3=996, +5=595, +3=<8:, +5=8;4, +3=39<, +3=;45, MRK+6, 0419; 816;< 07166 71<55 04183 61<39 +3=9<<, +5=685, +4=3:7, +6=568, +3=38;, +3=9<<, 53

Iljxuh 4= Kdqvhq +4<<5, Vwdelolw| Whvwv +xsshu olqh lv wkh 8( VxsI fulwlfdo ydoxh/ orzhu olqh lv wkh 8( PhdqI fulwlfdo ydoxh, 54

Iljxuh5= <8(Frq(cid:31)ghqfhHoolsvhv+GROV0olqh/GJOV0gdvkhv/ SEVU0vkruwgdvkhv/ SKIP 0 gdvk0grwv, 55

Iljxuh 6= <8( Frq(cid:31)ghqfh Hoolsvhv iru Fdqdgd +olqh lv wkh (cid:31)uvw kdoi ri wkh vdpsoh/ grwwhg olqh lv wkh vhfrqg kdoi, 56

Iljxuh 7= <8( Frq(cid:31)ghqfh Hoolsvhv iru wkh Qhwkhuodqgv +olqh lv (cid:31)uvw kdoi ri vdpsoh/ grwwhg olqh lv wkh vhfrqg kdoi1, 57

Iljxuh 8= <8( Frq(cid:31)ghqfh Hoolsvhv iru Dxvwuld +olqh lv (cid:31)uvw kdoi ri vdpsoh/ grwwhg olqh lv wkh vhfrqg kdoi1, 58

Iljxuh 9= Iruhljq Kroglqjv dv d Shufhqwdjh ri wkh Fxuuhqf| Vwrfn +GROV, 59

Iljxuh := Iruhljq Kroglqjv dv d Shufhqwdjh ri wkh Fxuuhqf| Vwrfn +GROV, ^zlwk 5 vwdqgdug huuru edqgv‘ 5:

Iljxuh ;= Zruog Groodul}dwlrq +lq 4<<3 X1V1 Grooduv (cid:24) GROV, 5;