ifdp · June 30, 1979

The U.S. Sector of the Multi-Country Model and Its Mulipliers

International Finance Discussion Papers

Number 146

July 1979

The U.S. Sector of the Multi-Country Model and Its Multipliers

Sung Y. Kwack

NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment by a writer that he has had

access to unpublished material) should be clear with the author or authors.

July 1979

The U.S. Sector of the Multi-Country Model and Its Multipliers

by Sung Y. Kwack*

I. Introduction

The Multi-Country Model (MCM) was developed at the Federal Reserve Board by the Quantitative Studies Section of the Division of International Finance. The model links separate econometric models of the U.S., Canada, Germany, Japan, U.K., and the rest of the world. In contrast to the Project LINK systen, individual country models are linked, not only through trade. and prices, but also through capital flows, interest rates, and exchange rates. Thus, the model is designed to capture, more accurately than previously available models the economic interdependence of national economies.

While some allowance is made for peculiar characteristics found within individual economies, each country model is constructed so as to fit the specifications of the prototype model described in [4], [3], [8], [12], and [19]. The results of various experiments derived from the MCM were presented in [5], [7], and [13].

The purpose of this paper is to present the structure of the quarterly model of the U.S. economy in the MCM model. Section II discusses the error statistics for selected variables inside and outside

the sample period 1962-1975. Section III summarizes the multipliers

*I am very grateful to members of the Board's Division of International Finance, Ralph Bryant, and Jared Enzler for their contribution to the construction of the MCM. Assistance from Cheol Park and Steven Schooler is acknowledged. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systen.

for fiscal and monetary policy instruments as well as the changes in exports and exchange rates when the U.S. model is not linked with other country models in the MCM. A brief concluding remark is made in Section IV on the limitations of the model and directions in which

the current research can be extended.

II. The Analysis of Errors

The equations of the prototype model specified in [5] are applied to quarterly U.S. data to obtain the econometric model of the U.S. economy. The sample period for the estimation of equations is from the first quarter of 1962 through the fourth quarter of 1975. Ordinary least squares are employed for the estimation, and thus, all the equation estimates may be subject to simultaneous equation bias. The estimated equations and the identities defining GNP, wealth, the balance of payments, and the monetary bases are given in the Appendix.

In an attempt to see how much of the variation of the endogenous variables can be explained by the model, the model is simulated dynamically starting from the fourth quarter of 1964 to the fourth quarter of 1975. In addition, it is simulated from the second quarter of 1973. The second simulation is undertaken to examine the performance of the model during a period of managed floating exchange rates. The results of the two dynamic simulations for selected variables are summarized in Table 1. The values of the root-mean-

square percentage errors for real GNP are 2.39 for the entire period

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and 1.89 for the period of a managed floating exchange rate. The root-mean-square percentage error values for the price variables, measured in rate of changes, are in the range of 0.83 to 1.65. Moreover, the values of the errors during the floating exchange rate period are lower than the values that occurred during the entire period. It is worth pointing out that the percentage error value for U.S. Treasury bill rate is substantially reduced to 8.54 during the floating rate period from 19.3. All the statistics indicate that the errors are in acceptable ranges, when compared to the performance of other models of the U.S. economy.

Table 2 presents the statistics of errors for export forecast outside the sample period, from the first quarter of 1976 through the first quarter of 1977. The actual observed values for the exogenous variables during this post-sample period are the values used in the forecast. The values of root-mean-square percentage errors for the selected variables given in the table are not different from those predicted by the model during the period of the floating rate regime. In other words, the errors revealed for the model outside the sample period are close to the error estimates for the sample period. This shows that the coefficients and structure of the model can be claimed to be a first approximation of the U.S. economy for the period from the middle

of the 1960s to the middle of the 1970s.

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“Table 1: Statistics of Errors from Dynamic | Simulation within the Sample Period

Variables 1962: 4 to 1975: 4 1973: 2 to 1975: 4 GNP 2.39 1.89 (-0.70) (1.32) P 0.94 0.33 (-0.59) (0.75) RSL 19.3 8.54 (-15.8) (4.90) MG 7.88 9.06 (-1.64) (4.22) MGV 7.99 9.05 (-2.28) (4.22) PMGUV 1.79 1.25 (-0.64) (-0.14) XGV 1.65 1.01 (-0.65) (0.66) PXCUV 1.65 1.01 (-0.65) (0.66) CU 4.91 4.36 (0.06) (2.01) UN . 23.1 14.1 (5.57) (-9.91) DFLP 206.5 . 190.0 (-10.8) (-63.0) DFCP 223.0 37.68 (11.0) (11.6) GBAL 133.9 586.5 (163.1) (56.4) PKBAL 179.5 184.7 (-357) (-76.8) DLO 286.1 413.0 (33.8) (-79.7)

Note: Statistics are root-mean-square percentage errors, and, in parenthesis, mean percentage errors.

Table 2: Statistics of Errors from Dynamic Simulation Outside the Sample Period

ST nnn nda

Variables 1976: 1 to 1977: 1 GNP 5.53 (-5.40) P 0.52 (-0.27) RS1 9.87 (-6.66) MG 6.69 (-5.80) MGV 7.96 (-6.85) PMGUV 1.65 (-1.13) XGV 2.97 (-2.86) PXGUV 2.97 (-2.86) cu 5.44 (-5.4) UN 50.7 (49.7) DFLP 57.9 (-32.1) DFCP , 73.4 (-61.9) GBAL 39.9 (-36.4) PKBAL 158.3 DLO 124.9 (-101.0)

Note: Statistics are root-mean-square percentage errors and, in parenthesis, mean percentage errors.

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Til. Multipliers of the Model

Normally the multipliers of a policy instrument are calculated by comparing the solutions of the model with and without a change in the policy instruments, assuming that all other things remain unaffected. The multipliers are subject to the errors of the coefficient estimates resulting from either imperfectly estimated or specified equations. Multipliers for long time horizons are less reliable than those for short time horizons. In addition, multipliers depend on the magnitudes of economic activities and price levels existing at the time the multipliers are calculated. In what follows, the multipliers over a period of two years from 1973 through 1975 will be presented. We will consider the multipliers of the four variables that represent major fiscal monetary instruments and the multipliers for two representative foreign variables.

Table 3 presents the multipliers for a rise in real government expenditures by $10 billion. The real GNP multipliers starts from 2.3 and goes to a maximum of 2.7 in the fourth quarter after the shock and then tends to fall to 1.4 after a period of two years. The shape of the multipliers over the period of two years largely reflects the dependence of real investment flows on changes in real GDP and interest rates, rather than levels of real GDP and interest rates. The inflation rate in the U.S., as measured by the price deflator for absorption, decreases in the first quarter and thereafter tends to rise to 0.5%.

The negative effect of the first quarter is due to the fact that an

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Table 3 : Effects of a $10 Billion Rise in U.S. Government Real Expenditures

GNP 23.621 21.483 20.483 23.766 23.638 20.797 16.686 13.262 P -0.049 0.011 0.077 0.133 0.227 0.337 0.446 0.551 UN -0.668 -0.556 -0.515 -0.642 -0.692 -0.690 -0.556 -0.457 CU 1.414 2.300 2.768 3.089 3.217 2.957 2.193 1.304 RS1 0.175 0.329 0.477 0.638 0.784 0.894 0.959 0.940 XGSNI 0.0 0.099. 0.094 0.109 0.101 0.118 0.096 0.139 MGSNI -0.004 1.512 2.418 2.740 2.901 3.195 3.328 2.895 XGV -0.004 -0.215 -0.014 0.233 0.408 0.563 0.875 0.967 XG 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PXGUV -0.005 -0.312 -0.017 0.256 0.403 6.607 0.807 0.887 MGV 0.0 1.448 2.575 3.011 3.949 4.492 4.788 4.037 MG 0.0 1.229 2.026 2.119 2.348 2.510 2.571 2.101 PMGUV 0.0 -0.048 -0.103 -0.244 -0.119 -0.146 -0.128 -0.039 GBAL ~0.004 -1.663 -2.589 -2.778 -3.541 -3.929 -3.913 -3.070 DFLP 2.406 2.295 1.790 1.547 1.225 0.216 -0.724 -2.143 DFCP -0.014 -2.229 -0.228 0.173 0.660 1.169 1.788 2.004 PKBAL 2.297 2.864 2.698 1.858 1.286 -0.111 -1.873 -3.866

DLO -2.283 -0.913 0.273 1.468 3.110 5.162 7.009 8.271

ee en

Note: 1. Figures for prices and umemployment rate are in percent. 2. Figures for interest rate are in percentage point, whereas those for capacity utilization are in percentage points . 3. Figures for activity and balance of payments are in billion of U.S. dollars.

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increase in labor productivity outweighs increases in cost factors such as wage rates. One notices that the aggregate import price is negatively affected, despite the fact that foreign export prices and exchange rates are treated as exogenous variables. This surprising outcome results from changes in the relative importance of U.S. imports from individual foreign countries. The increases in U.S. interest rates lead to a surplus in the capital account over a period of one year from the change. The capital account surplus in the first two quarters more than offsets the current account deficits. As time passes, however, the current account deficit tends to dominate the change in the balance of payments. This is because the balance of the capital account reflects the theory of portfolio choice, i.e., that capital flows are related to changes in the demand for foreign assets.

Table 4 contains the multipliers for a $10 billion reduction in U.S. tax revenue. The real GNP multiplier is smaller than the multiplier obtained when the real government expenditure is increased by $10 billion. This is due to the fact that the reduction of U.S nominal tax revenue by $10 billion is less than $10 billion in real terms and that a reduction in tax revenue affects GNP indirectly by changing disposable income. Comparing the results in Table 3 and Table 4, the movements of the two types of multipliers are found to be similar to each other. This is what we expected from a priori

theoretical reasoning.

dollars.

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: Effects of a $10 Billion Reduction

Teble 4 in U.S. Tax Revenues Period

Variables 7302 7303 7304 7401 7402 7403 7404 7501 GNP 4.584 10.908 18.030 22.185 23.788 22.410 18.132 12.885 P -0.010 -0.013 0.0 0.030 0.093 0.184 0.245 0.385 UN -0.133 -0.303 -0.487 -0.598 -0.661 -0.675 -0.620 -0.519 cu 0.275 0.847 1.658 2.375 2.927 3.098 2.612 1.749 RS1 0.087 0.227 0.418 0.627 0.833 1.009 1.132 1.14 XGSNI 0.0 0.020 0.047 0.104 0.120 0.125 0.Q91 0.103 MGSNI -0.001 0.316 0.959 1.898 2.500 2.941 3.316 3.035 XGV -0.001 -0.043 -0.078 -0.055 0.059 Q.245 0.564 0.819 XG 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PXGUV -0.001 -0.063 -0.094 -0.061 0.058 0.264 0.510 0.751 MGV 0.0 0.278 0.943 1.952 3.198 3.990 4.624 4.047 MG 0.0 0.236 0.744 1.410 1.962 2.229 2.475 2.104 PMGUV 0.0 -0.009 -0.041 -0.221 -0.193 -0.130 -0.111 -0.035 GBAL -0.001 -0.322 -1.022 ~2.008 -3.139 -3.746 -4.060 -3.228 DFLP 1.228 2.123 2.881 3.016 2.762 1.922 0.974 ~-0.795 DFCP -0.004 0.238 -0.021 -0.169 -0.213 0.059 0.636 1.250 PKBAL 1.208 1.933 3.105 3.574 3.589 2.632 1.067 -1.554 DLO -1.205 -1.524 -1.859 -1.139 0.306 2.212 4.284 6.264

Note: 1. Figures for prices and umemployment rate are in percent.

2. Figures for interest rate are in percentage point, whereas those for capacity utilization are in percentage points . 3. Figures for activity and balance of payments are in billion of U.S.

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In contrast to the multipliers for the fiscal policy instrument, Table 5 gives the multipliers for a $1 billion rise in the unborrowed monetary reserves of the Federal Reserve System. The real GNP multipliers for the monetary policy instruments are much larger than those for the fiscal policy instruments discussed above. The multiplier starts from 0 reaching a maximum of 8.1 at the end of two years. This shows that changes in the monetary policy will have a long-lasting effect. This is consistent with the expectation that the effects of changes in interest rates on real investment and GNP, tend to be distributed over time. The effects on the price variables seem to be neglible. The U.S. interest rate is reduced by 0.8 percentage point in the initial quarter. As time goes on, the effect of the monetary policy change on the interest rate tend to diminish. This is because of the increasing demand for money. The capital account exhibits a deficit of $12 billion in the first quarter and falls toa range of 0.5 in the second quarter to $2 billion. Our results therefore confirm that the asset-shift effect would be greater than the wealth-growth effect, when a change in monetary policy is implemented (see Branson [6]). Reductions in interest rates at home and increases in U.S. GNP and wealth cause an increase in U.S. liabilities to official foreigners. But, the effect on the U.S. balance of payments of the monetary policy, in contrast to the effect of changes in the fiscal policy, is short-lived.

The discount rate is one of the monetary policy instruments.

We analyzed the effect of a one percentage point rise in the discount

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Table 5 : Effects of a $1 Billion Rise in U.S. Unborrowed Monetary Reserves

Variables 73022 7303 7304 7401". 7402 7403). 7404 - 7501 CNP 0.0 0.862 2.824 5.162 7.104 8.106 - 8.141 «7.610 P ———«g.0—S—«~0.004 «0.010 0.015 0.013 -0.002 0.014 0.035 ow 9.0 0.012 0.962 0.127 0.180 0.210 0.225 -0.234 a ——-g.0—S——«~0S2—Ss«i205-—Ss—«*4B39-—S«*wT73~=«0.940— «0.993 0889 RSI -0.828 0.710 0.693 -0.617 0.554 0.498 0.426 +0.372 ~ XGSNI 09.0. --0.008 + -0.002 0.019 +«=«0.046 = 0.067 «0.071 0.077 “MCSNI 9.0. 0.390 0.463. «0.247 s«0.098~=— 0.302. 95519 XGV 0.0 0.0 -0.019 -0.041 -0.053 -0.025 0.035 04120 XG 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‘PXGUV 0.0 0.0 -0.022 -0.045 -0.052 -0.027. 0.032. 0.110 MCV 0.0 0.0 0.056 0.245 0.607 0.978 1.371 - 1.406 MG 0.0 0.0 0.044 0.179 0.382 0.556 0.741 0.737 PMGUV 0.0 0.0 -0.003 -0.033 0.054 -0.049 -0.046 ~+0.023 GBAL 0.0 -0.0 -0.075 -0.285 -0.659 -1.003 -1.336 © =1.286 DFLP -11.912 -0.040 -1.328 -0.479 -0.962 -0.968 -0.585 . +0.536 DFCP 0.9 0.579 0.873 0.907 0.765 0.669 0.515 .. 0.290 | PKBAL -11.912 -0.624 -2.195 -1.340 -1.604 -1.436 -0.858., --0.609 DLO 11.912 0.191 1.692 1.074 1.838 2.030 1.764 1.506

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Table 6: Effects of a One Percentage Point Rise in U.S. Discount Rate

I I

Period

Variables . 7302 7303 7304 7401 | 7402 7403 7404 7501 GNP 0.0 -~0.808 -2.434 -4.300 -5.804 -6.586 -6.612 -6.173 P 0.0 0.004 0.010 0.015 0.015 0.008 -0.004 -0.019 UN 0.0 0.009 0.049 0.101 0.145 0.169 0.181 0.188 “CU ~ 0.0. -0.048 -0.179 -0.371 -0.589 -0.767 -0.805 -0.717 RS1 > + 0.677 0.593 0.578 0.519 0.468 0.424 0.365 0.325 XGSNI. ._—_—iOO 0.006 0.0 ~0.017. -0.038 -0.055 -0.057 -0.062

-- MGSNI 0.0 0.438 0.536 9.328 0.006 -0.157 -0.307 -0.330 XGV a 0.0 0.0 0.019 0.039 0.048 0.024 -0.024 -0.092

XG 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PXGUV 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.043 0.048 0.025 -0.022 -0.084 MGV 0.0 0.0 -0.052 -0.213 -0.507 -0.799 -1.106 “1.130 MG 0.0 0.0 -0.041 -0.156 -0.319 -0.453 -0.597 -0.591 PMGUV .- 0.0 0.0 . 0.002 0.028 0.045 0.039 0.037 0.018 GBAL . 0.0 0.0 0.071 0.252 0.555 0 822 1.082 1.038 DFLP 15.811 0.171 1.016 0.396 0.797 0.818 0.462 0.499 DFCP . 0.0 -0.473 -0.710 -0.737 -0.623 -0.550 -0.428 -0.244 PKBAL © 15.811 0.649 1.718 1.091 1.317 1.204 0.095 0.568 DLO “15.811 -0.250 -1.196 -0.796 -1.464 -1.628 -1.356 -1.230

i i aaa

Note: Jl. Figures for prices and umemployment rate are in percent. 2. Figures for interest rate are in percentage point, whereas those for capacity utilization are in percentage points . 3. Figures for activity and balance of payments are in billion of U.S. dollars.

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rate by the Federal Reserve Board as presented in Table 6. As expected, it lowers real GNP by $1 billion in the first quarter increasing to $6 billion at the end of two years. The short-term rate is increased by 0.5 percentage point on the average. The increases in interest rates reduce capital outflows and incrase capital inflows, thus leading to a surplus in the capital account balance as well as the over-all balance of payments in a very short period of time. Now, let us turn to the effect of changes in foreign conditions on U.S. economy. For this purpose, we have selected two exercises, namely an increase in U.S. real exports by $10 billion and a 10% devaluation of the U.S. dollar. As shown in Table 7, the rise in U.S. real exports by $10 billion results in a rise in U.S. real GNP, starting from $14 billion to a maximum of $40 billion at the end of the fourth quarter. Thus, the multiplier effect from 1.4 to 4 is much higher than the real GNP multiplier that U.S. real government spending would generate. The main reason for this is that the rise in U.S. exports causes a surplus in the current account, while the rise in government spending results in a deficit in the current account. Moreover, higher interest rates lead to a surplus in the capital account. As a result, the U.S. export expansion causes the balance of payments surplus. By creating pressure on the economy, the rise in the U.S. exports would raise the domestic inflation rate by 0.8 percent at the end of two

years.

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Table 7: Effects of a $10 Billion Rise in U.S. Export Volume

San NIST nn

Period

Variables 7302 7303 7304 7401 7402 7403 7404 7501 GNP 14.629 26.275 36.342 39.059 36.879 34.618 27.608 21.210 P -0.031 -0.020 0.033 0.117 0.263 0.434 0.613 0.783 UN -0.417. -0.703 -0.941 -1.011 -1.003 -1.057 -0.945 -0.806 CU 0.877 2.194 3.677 4.655 5.099 5.006 3.947 2.520 RS1 0.088 0.266 0.524 0.793 1.032 1.236 1.369 1.366 XGSNI 10.166 11.314 10.264 10.818 10.367 11.325 10.468 10.945 MGSNI 0.383 1.489 2.887 4.632 5.384 5.846 6.300 5.886 XGV 11.208 11.812 12.626 13.838 14.715 16.100 17.634 18.560 XG 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 PXGUV -0.0 -0.197. -0.180 -0.003 0.313 0.735 1.107 1.397 MGV 0.0 0.893 2.459 4.288 6.180 6.927 7.626 6.571 MG | 0.0 0.758 1.937 3.081 3.749 3.840 4.078 3.425 PMGUV 0.0 -0.030 -0.103 -0.445 -0.297 -0.172 -0.173 -0.072 GBAL 11.208 10.919 10.167 9.550 8.536 9.173 10.008 11.990 DFLP 9.490 12.343 14.095 14.680 14.150 13.794 13.535 12.134 DFCP 5.127 0.214 0.122 0.403 0.566 1.595 2.761 3.364 PKBAL 3.593 12.301 14.522 15.103 14.764 13.459 11.911 9.496 DLO -14.815 -23.215 -24.707 -24.527 -22.761 -21.769 -21.091 -20.742

a en

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Table 8: Effects of a 10% Devaluation of U.S. Dollar

. Period Variables ~ 7302 7303 7304 7401 7402 7403 7404 7501

GNP 10.651 16.738 (22.039 29.847 32.816 31.086 25.734 17.904 P 0.266 . 0.558 0.745 0.911 1.142 1.424 1.728 2.014 UN -0.455 -0.707 -0.841 -1.054 -1.159 -1.175 -1.096 -0.904 cu 0.638 1.453 2.306 3.220 3.973 4.213 3.582 2.388 RS1 0.096 0.266 0.490 0.778 1.092 1.386 1.628 1.704 XGSNI 2.417 3.406 4.336 5.920 5.734 5.181 5.036 5.346 MGSNI -2.379 -2.572 <-1.231 -9.065 1.061 2.112 2.822 3.105 XGV 1.722 3.823 7.605 11.402 13.276 12.598 15.267 15.885 XG 1.518 2.808 4.849 6.578 7.053 6.055 6.668 6.490 PXGUV 0.027 0.639 1.554 2.293 2.830 3.266 3.715 4.152 MGV 0.464 1.028 1.839 2.946 4.784 6.122 7.272 6.606 MG -1.871 -2.125 -1.604 -1.061 -0.405 0.247 0.600 0.630 PMGUV 3.862 5.395 5.213 5.251 5.202 5.234 5.387 5.336 GBAL 1.258 2.795 5.766 8.456 8.492 6.476 7.995 9.278 DFLP 19.026 31.268 26.625 26.431 23.387 17.965 11.662 11.624 DFCP -18.860 -24.708 -24.965 -21.760 -15.791 -6.848 8.179 5.930 PKBAL 37.735 55.901 51.652 48.509 39.822 25.638 3.841 5.635 DLO -40.523 -60.008 -58.022 -56.957 -47.475 -30.835 -9.975 -12.893

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Finally, the effect of the U.S. dollar depreciating by 102 against major foreign currencies is given in Table 8. The dollar exchange rate changes are treated here as affecting other economic variables rather than caused by them. At the two years following the depreciation, rises in the domestic inflation rate is increased by 2 percent. This estimate is in the range of estimates reported by others (see Hooper and Lowrey [11], and Kwack [16]). The devaluation increases the balance of U.S. trade accounts by $1 billion in the first quarter, U.S. real imports being decreased by $2 billion and exports being increased by $1.5 billion. This generates, through the multiplier effect, initially a $10 billion rise in U.S. real GNP and a $18 billion rise over the two year period. The increases in real income over time, stimulated by the devaluation, cause the U.S. interest rate to rise. The U.S. rate is increased by 1.7 percentage points after two years from the devaluation. The increase in the interest rate causes a capital account surplus. Consequently, the dollar devaluation leads to both U.S. current account and balance of payments surpluses. One notices, however, that the effect on U.S. official liabilities to foreigners, as measured by the U.S. balance of payments,

tends to diminish after one and a half years.

IV. Concluding Remarks

The analysis of the multipliers shows that an expansionary fiscal policy leads to higher levels of real GNP and interest rates. It causes a balance of current account to become a deficit over time, but results

in a surplus in the capital account balance temporarily. The over-all

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balance of payments tends to remain deficit over the period of two years, starting from a surplus. An expansionary monetary policy results in higher levels of real GNP and lowers the rates of interest. The impact of the policy change directs largely on the capital accounts and brings about a deficit in the balance of payments. In contrast to the fiscal policy action, the impact of the monetary policy changes on the balance of payments is rather temporary. Increased exports and a U.S. dollar devaluation have expansionary impacts on U.S. real GNP and price levels. Both cases result in balance of payments surpluses. One interesting finding of the exercises is that the impact of external factors on U.S. activity and inflation are much greater than anticipated. This finding is very interesting and deserves further investigation.

All foreign variables and exchange rates are taken as given. The U.S. export equation is not the behavior equation estimated. Rather, it is defined by utilizing the parameter estimates given by the equations for foreign imports from the United States in the MCM along with relevant empirical studies of U.S. exports. This is done in order to make the U.S. export equation consistent with foreign import equations from the U.S. in the MCM. All these shortcomings of a model of the U.S. economy when seen as a country in the interdependent world

will, of course, be remedied when the entire MCM model is analyzed.

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pue yoemy Bung ‘emoH preMoH SAABTO Jaqeg ‘pieyoTY ‘1osuresg

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SHONTAAATA

“OT

Il.

Ill.

IV.

APPENDIX:

THE U.S. SECTOR OF THE MULTI-COUNTRY MODEL

Sung Y. Kwack

Behavioral equations........ toeee Identities.........ee0. eee cecces eee ccccee Sources of definitions of variables.......cccccccvcecs

Dynamic simulation results........ceseee.

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spoo3 wnaToijad-uou jo sjicodmy ‘s‘p

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99103 10qB7T

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yaysey Togs] gy

(Iz*y) (67°90) (SEPT) (T2*7) (LT *Z)

ole O6T°0 §= 99S*0-=SCoTzt*r)~=—sogetOtéi' (76°) (9670) (ZT°0) (6%) (ze *z) 028°S- Zez*O- 6T8°O- ~I9L°T- LSo°e- fo (oz"6) (vy*e) (Tae) (Ivy) (zs"s) (4eZ) (98) (BOE) CLD SE0°0 -Z00°0 £00°0 00°0 $00°0 ~ S$00°0 s00°0 00°0 ~—-€00°0 q (8°€S) (z2°0) (y0°€) (86°8) (e"ee) (9°0€) (T°9T) 808°0 --- $00°0-«OLOTO.-Ss«SZO°O~—svT*O«gzzto.—sé«éie‘t0.—Cié«‘“ST ms 9 ¢ 9 € z I 0 I

9GL 03 T2779 pofted

LT°% = wa g6€°2 = agS 666°0 = wa rA

O=F _ O=F

(Toma .taom) poz + (nota + Mm sto bo 2 + € € so. ee . O=F __ O=F .. ._ (0¥#°T)

' @ af” OANA . 4 ACA) ¥q t+ ' (a/aax) te 3+ t ast MN 900°0O +

L ¢ (LT°Z) (87°) (77°€) (LT°S) § (49°T)

oad0d V 8€S°9 + dOANG 9OT°L — MOAN ZET°9-XSANC TOL°L + 98T°97 = 9

UofF oungz UoF ydunsuo)

S-Vv

(66° T) (£9°T) (€2°T). (Z8°T) (76°T) (Z0°Z) © (T9°T)

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72S 92 TZ79 pofied

€98°0 = 9 7g°T = Md €08°T = was €48°0 = oY

I- 6~ (LL°T) TdOMV “ DAWG LEL*T +

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JUOUJSAAUT PeXT} ABATIg

YiGL 03 T:79 pofied Ov'T = Md €8L°2 = aaS L98°0 = 14

(LE°4) I- (09°Z) NN STL°Z - ((° d/d)DOT , 007) 968°0 +

(OT"S) (20°€) 5 Td9M 162° - CAWG YLT°S + " (INSOWd/(ADASW - AXSH) +

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_ T=¥ (LT°9) (DW-d9X - VSOX + ddI +9) S°0 2% 999°0 + z

(S8°%)

INSOXd/AASX-4ND) 9€¢°0 +

(Z4S°S) (%2°0) (SH - VOX - WSOX + ddI + 9) L€S‘O - 604°T = II - II

JUSTIZSBAUT AiOWUSAUT

L-V

(9°0€) (ZT°€) (ZZ) §=(6°0€) (€€°0) t S22°T €f€°O Ss7°0 L9€°O0 020°0 e

WAS € é T 0 t

9?GL 02 T2Z9 pofaeg

996°0 = d 09°Z = Ma 606°0 = aaS 676°0 = 54 T-_. 7. OMF (T9°E-) (7 . L6ESTO°O.» daa) “B23 + T99"YT= = AVOID

DIUEMOTL[e UoTIduNsuoD [eIpdey

8-V

7°GL 02 [79 poftiag

T68°0 = 0 7S°T = MG 7T0°O = gas S76°O = Iu

(CC ans) 901 + (aND)907) ¥5°0)

(9°6z) — (18°9) (8T°8) S€T°T +7SZANd 7220°0- YZT°Z- = (AL)307

Sqdyaoet XBL

(*e€) (6z°0) (79°T) (48°%) (9*6T) ~—€T*8T) (Is"6) OT0°O0 ——-T000°0 €000°0 --6000°0 £T00°0 —«-8z00°0~—S—«*T¥00°0 e

Was S 9 € (4 , T 0 F

72:GL 92 T?79 pofied

97L°0 =d 67°T = Md. ZIT°O =. aaS 2S6°0 = 5¥ _ te _ _ O=F (S2°0) t I van. "gota , ot tsu) . fe z+ LLO°O- = Addak c*0 c°*0 S

Spyorg SAISsey [eIspaq

OT-V

(L°0T) (60°T) (€T°Z) (8°0D (16°T) t 920°0 800°0 9T0°0 €Z0°0 0€0°0 B wns € Zz T 0) t 72GZ 03 TZ79 pofaed Z7L°0 =9 8L°T = MG TyZ°O = das 766°0 = 74 en ae O=F(TT°0Z) (1S°€) AD e3+ (aI-dT) - S°0366S°7 + AMIND BZT°O + T r= (6°OT) (79°8) (66°9) it (6S°2) (€° 72)

JadOdV 788° — Taaoav SO8°@— DddOdV TEZ°Z— ~— IAdOGV 8¥6°T — OST°9T= = AddID-ANVUL

aouevANsuy JUeMAOTdMaUN 103 SjuemAed aejsueal

TT-V¥

- (00°Z)

Z40°0- Fe wns (99° T) (69°T) (TS°T) (96°T) (LS°T) (09°T) t 89000°0- SzT00°0- TZT00°0- L0Z00°0- ¥€Z00°0- £€6200°0- eB ST LT 9T ST 9T €T F (979 °T) (89°T) (€ZL°T) (82°T) (78°T) (76° T) I 79Z00°0- 0£700°0- IZZ00°0- 249Z00°0- 09200°0- 1S200°0- e ZI Tl OT 6 g Ll ss (80°Z) (9T°Z) (L€°Z) (89°Z) (¥T°€) (6S°€) (L9°€) t T¥Z00°0- O€Z0u O- 02Z00°0- TIZ00°0- S0Z00°0- z0zZ00°0- +40200°0- B 9 S v) € vA T 0 3 3G 02 [379 pofied 666°0 = d z0°Z = MG TOe*O = agS STS°O = 74 O=F (9L°T) F- ,I- T- T- F T+ . e e + (” asa) 9: uom »: ous) e gt LTAXNG O8€°0 (19°E-) (LS° 4) I (12°) (88°Z)

jaa0qv SLL°0- ° LIAAWGV O1Z°T +

“LTaRNGY S6Z°1L + LIaxNaV 992°0 +

z+ (€9°T-)

(S$8°0) Tz_ana 6z4°0 - &*

T7LANG 19Z°0 +

b+ (s€°Z) (€L°0)

IZ7LAWG 7€9°O + ZE0°S = AddAA-AID

S]}joid oAlesei [elepoy Suppnioxe yuemAed Jsoioquy JusMUIEACD

ct-v¥

72GZ 9% T2799 pofaeg

TO°2 = Md Te€0°O = Fas 666°0 = zt

(Z°6s€) (€°0-)

VSADASW TO00°T + Z00°0- = ADINI

VIN Uf Si9usd Fa10; 03 yusuted 3S919 UT JUeMUTSAOS

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(s2°6) (s£°6) ($276) (S2°6) zSy°Z60¥°0 | LTB°O)=— SZ2°T

was z. T 0 t

93GZ 92 T279 potted

987°0 = 0 z76°T = MG z7S0°O = 34S SS6°O = 78 . O=F (9€°S) (FT) (dND)901 Fe og+ (39 + ANDXd))901 €T0°TrA I (6T° 4) (79° 4) (T9°T) (¥T° 4) (0Z°8)

“"d)901 8TS*T + €0 €L0°O - 20 $Z0°O + TO 290°0 - 68S°9T—- = ((a9 « ANDXd)) /ANDX)9OT

“Sn OF Bpeue) JO Sz10dxq

9T-V

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: “WIS = gg I 0 t

os i

7iSL 03.1379 pofrzeg

“ 919°0 = 0 “" Ty't = Ma —o90°0 = gas 198°0 = 14 t- y OTF (s6°%) “qe OSES) (ar -anoxar)o01 *e =z + (ano)901 set*e + (Ta)007 982°T + € (S€°Z) - €2E°T) Ue 6) (847° 4)

d 8Z0°O + 2d 4¥Z0°0 - Td cst" O - 726°61T- = ((ar « Anoxar) /AMEX) 907

*$°n OF ueder Pte) $3i0dxq

SI-V

(60°%) (s0O°0) (Z¥°0) (09°T) (z8°e) (48°T) t T69°0- 700°0- 6£0°0- 90T*O- S0Z°0- 9€£°0- e

wos 9 € Z T 0 t

9:S2 03 T:79 pofreg

€S°T =ad s90°0 = HES £86°0 = u t- z, Ont (aa * TANDYdH)SOT “F@ 3 + a I- (47°0)) (s°€T) (" d)50T OVT°O + (° dND)DOT L¥9°7 +

(ez°€) = (48°2) (90°T) (Ty°€) (9°2T) ISTIG@ £90°0~ €0 $90°0 - 2d 4Z0°0 — TO S80°O- ETS*ZT- = ((aa + TANOXda) /ANAX)SOT

“$l 03 “an 50 B3a0dxy

9T-V

‘(gyp) (0670) (ENT) (zstz) (zery) — (sa°T) : “BOE'T~ -S60°0- ¥B8T*O- -£9Z°0- S¥E"O- 9TP*0- re

“AAS y € tz T 0 t

72G2 03 T?79 =pofteg

ZLE°O' = 0 90°7 >= Md 980°0 = .4as 8T6°O = 54

F,, Ost

i+ 9

T ra9 . anoxaa)901 Fe

(99°2) '(8$°9)

(ayoo1 99°t + (Tano)901 928°2 +

(1S°€) (82°€) (99°Z) | (co°s) (90°9) LSTId 840°0 - €d T60°O - ZD 920°0 — Td €90°0- 9TY*ST— = ((199 + ANDXaD) /ANDX) DOT

“$n 03 Aueuie) JO S310dxq

.LT+¥

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wns € 2 0 t

yiGl 92 T2799 poflzed

zz°Z = MG 880° 0 = aaS — 998°0 = 7a 1077 (76°) - (46°T) F’(oxamou)oot'e z + (1d9Wd)D0T 86T°0 + ( ~d)90T L8L°0 + € (8T°0) (s8°0) —(4L°0) (LE *E)

F “aND)901 T6E°T + €0900°0— 20 620°O + TOD 920°0 + 9S8°9- = (TUN - oXaNO¥/ANBX) OO

S}io0dm} [any Suypnpoxe “*g°f OF MOU JO S310dxq

8I-V

(T6"2) = (O6*T) = (¥¥"Z)(88°2) «= (92 °0) t _196°0 = WZE*O | BT¥°O = Z8Z"0 = 780°0- ®

was. € 2 0 t

73GZ 03 TZ9 pofaed

— 0LL*0 = 9 87°2 = MG $z0°O = gas T16°O = 74 . O=F (€6°€) CHT)~(anoyo01 Fe x + (laTaM)901 £6°0 + € i . (62°49) (4°2T) (9°TT) (Ty*y) = (6°ZT)

(149d) 01 04Z°O - €0 9890°O - Zd €60°O — Td ZE0°O + T¥Z°OT- = (914)901

*$°N gO UOFydunsuoD UNeTodjed [e307 oF saM0g

61-V

yi¢L 02 T2279 = POF APd 6S°T = Md 787°O = ddS 026°0 = zt

I- (€z°4) (18° 2) (06°S) (29°0) (88°9) (L€°¥) Wld SOB°OSE + Wd LLE°9T9 + CD 98L°O + 2D SST°O + TO TT8°O - T09°0 = HOW

Syonpoad wneploajyed jo s}10duy

0¢-V

iG 02 TiZ79 potted €6°T = Md ZS€°O = aaS L66°0 = 74

(8°8€T) (ss*T) (64°0) (67°0) (6€°E€) ADNX 8L0°T + €dD L0Z°0 — ZO90T*O — Td 990°0- Ef7°O = ADNW

uoyjenbe JUueMd;YyS—AAeAP[ep :epeuey Wory Syiodwy -S°n

Te-¥

92G2 02 T:79 = POF aad €7°% = Md tT€*O = aaS 766°0 = 74 (L°76) (s¢*Z) (ze*#) (16°0) (0¥°2)

(anrx + ANLX) »- $°0) 8ZO°T + €d TOE*O + 2D ETS°O + TO 8OT°O + T9Z°O- = ALAN

Uofienbs JUsuUd;YyS—-AAeA} [ep :ueder woiz sjiodwy *s*f

cc-V¥

7GL 02 T279 pofled

60°C = Md 72T°O = 44S £86°0O = za

(Z°T9) (89°Z) (€9°0) (67°0) (L¥°T) (99°T) ANIX Z0O°T + LSTIA 060°O - €d 0€0°O — Z0EZ0°0— Td 0240°O + T60°O = AAW

uoF zenba sepfiq :°y°f] Wolz sqaodwp °S°p

€c-V

93SL 03 T:Z79 porzed

92°% = Md S6T°O = aaS | 686°0 = 78

- oe - (0°69) (" ANOX + SE°O + ANDX - G9°O) TZO°T +

(S8°¢) (€Z°T) ~ (99°T) (9L£°0) (T#°T) ISTIG 20Z°0 - €0 €60°O —-20 9Z2T°O + TO LS0°0 + YOT°O = ADNN

“uoFzenba juomd;ys—AleAF[eg sAueuiey) Wolg SqiodMyE °S*H

7¢-V

72GZ 02 T279 potted

g0°T = Md LyS*t = 2aS 166°0 = 74

I- (4°4é) (69° #) (os*0) (26°) (ZE"0) (" AMEX + $7°0 + AMUX + $S°0) TOT*T + €d S8z*0 — 2D T6Zz°0 — TO O¥S°0- YZT°O- = AYN

Uof Jenba JUoMd;ysS—AIOAT [Od :MOY Woz Sqaoduy °S*p

SZ-V

3 | yiGZ 02 1:79 pofrzed S6°T = Md ST0°O = aas 666°0 = 1¥

| : ae (£°TL2) (ATIOWN - AMNK + ACOW + ATON + ADNN)DOI LZ0°T +

(L€°2) (€2°0) (68°T) (S°2T)

€0 €1T0°O + 2d ¥00°O + Td TIO°O + 8ZT°0— = (ATISNN — ADWN)IOT

uofjenbe espfiq :Spoos umaztoizjed—uou 50 siiodmy “s°n

9¢-V

92S2 02 T?Z79 pofied -989°0 = 9 z8°T = Md LT0°O = aas c66°0 = 54

(€°08) (AuNX + ACMNS + ADNX + AANS + ONX)DOT 600°T +

(6%°0) (96°0). (8%°Z) = (T° T) €d z00°0 + zd S00°O + Td TI0°O + 990°0- = (ADX)9071

uofjenba AisafTep—-ueudyys :spoos jo sziodxq °s*f

Le-v

yiGL 02 T2779 pofited

919°0 = 9 £c°Z = Md 710°O = adS. £19°0 = za

- (€6°T) (87°€) (” dIMOW) DOT 876°O + (dNDD DOT 709°T +

(€S°9) (82 °Z) (Z0°0) (08°0) (6%°Z) ISTIG ZZT°O — €0 0S0°0 — 2d 7000°0 — Td LTO°0— T98°S= = (DVXd/AVIX) DOT

Spoos [ein}[nofisy gO S3i0dxq “S°f

87-V

7?GL 02 T#79 pofaed

TLZL°0 = 9d 89°72 = Ad 0€0°O = aS £06°0 = za

(€6°€) I- (62°T) (INSOXd/dddX + di)D901T69°O + ( dNDA)DOT OZT°O + CINSDXd

(80° 2) (ss°T) (s€°9) (29°T) (99°0) /(ASW + ADX))DO1 Z77°O + €O8ZT°O + 20090°0 + TOYTO°O- TSZ°0— = (INSDXd/AdOSX) 901

S}dpaoe1 oMOIUFT JUSsMISeAUT UPY AayIO SVdTAIeS jo $3 100xq

6c-V

(OT*Z) ($6°0) (82°0) (60°2) (20°€) 6£9°0 260°0- 820°0- T6T°O 99S°0 B

Wns € (A T 0 }

7i¢L 02 T§Z9 POFted oos°O = 9 €T°Z = Md gto°O = das €26°0 = zt

} f

F-insowa/a)o01 e 2 +

($9°Z) (6L°€) (L6°2)

('3n5)901 TT9°0 + (INSDWd/(ADW + ADX))901 16€°O + OLadKaa 950°O +

(92°Z) (T°Z€) (T°8T) (€0°Z) (7E°E) + 19dX9Q €90°O + €OL04¥°O + ZOZEZ°O + TO#Z0°0 = 176°C = CINSDWd/AdOSH) SOT

Sszuemked QWOIUT JUSMISSAUT UeY I9Yy,O SVIFAIVS JO $}10dw]

0t-V

92G2 03 T2279 Potted

87L°0 = 9 S7°Z = Md 8T7°T = gas 619°0 = 54 t-___ 646°9) Old tZ1°6 + ~<OIG (g€°T) (IT°Z) (92°) (€9°€) (86 °0)

¢ (Dad0d=T) 020°O + DIGANG ZS6°O + EDTOT°Z — ZOT99°T — TOTI¥°LT - TT6°T- = AXdASX

peoiqe ssupuies Juomjseauy J5eI7q

Te-V

(90°S) (0€°9) .

(IT°S) (7€°S) (S7°€) ¢7z°0- L£S0°0 ¢e€0°0 890°0- 0Sz°0- e wos € 4 T 0 3 | SL 03 1229 porszed TS°T = Md 9€4°0 = 44S 716°0 = zt 1- 1 OFF (S°9T) (AddASX ¢ (OAdOG-T)) “8 J + AAdASX O€L°O + €

(99°S) (6S°S) — (T¥H°E) (67°Z) (79°) TdOWd - DAdOd TEO*T -— EOTO°T - Z00€9°0 — T0L07°0 - €L9°T = AAdASX

Sjdfaoel sWOOUF JUAMISSAUT }90I1TC

ce-V

(€°9T) (97T°0) (07°0) (2 °9T) (€8°T) LTT°O €00°0- 800°0O s€0°0 9L0°0

WOS € é T 0 t

9°GL 92 T2279 potted

Le°T = ma LST°O = aaS 026°0 = 54 _ O=F (08°9) (F + D-irg Fe 2 + 1€9°0 = AALS €

$9283$ poIfuy oy} UT Ssupuies JuewJSeAUT 3O°1TG

te-vV

.. . 93G2 03 [279 potted ese°o = 9 €0°% = Md 660°O = das SZZ°0 = 74

(2°01) 5 (OL°4) (€0°€) T+ (66°€) (T9°T) | AddASW L8E°O + ~~ dadOQV OL7°O — DadOdV 4¥ZE°O — DadOdV 66€°O — 690°0 = ACdASH

Sjusuked sWO.UT JUSMISeAUT JIeITG

9E-V

(70°0) €20°0-

(0°62) 600°0O

uns

877°0 = 9

0=F

(89°2) SZE°O~

(S#°T) L000°0-

€

6°T = Md

(8°T) (70°0) (€8°2) t LeE*O= £00°0- LE9°0 q (97°0) (2°62) (09°9) t T000°0O £00°0 £00°0 e

(A T 0 F

y3$L 03 TiZ79 pofied Y€7°O = aaS 796°0 = 74

O=F . (v€°S)

Peas 'q wD (aay (oat . Tag + 01s . sua)) 'e@ 2 + 619°O- = Gd /AdaxSX

€

St-V¥

€ :

SUFeTO [BfoueUZ OIeAFAd uo Sqydfade1 smOoUT

($°ZT) (2S°T) (42°T) (02°) (OT°€) (00°9) (05°6) (S8°Z) (6€°T) I €00°0 1000°0 £€000°0 £€000°0 7000°0 47000°0 s000°0 s000°0 s000°0 B

wns L 9 S 7 £ Z . T. _0 F

72GL 93 T2779 pofrzed

97770 = 9 = €0°Z = MG £60°0 = gas 198°0 = 58 (F+T)- 7 02 (7°TT) (95°9) (6°0T) (¥°2T) (cepH9TH + coy TSH + VHONS) “® %+ €d 6/£°O —ZDLEZ*O- TO99E"O - 995°O = ADASX L

s3 dpaoer WWoOIUT JuSeMASsoAUT JUSTIUIBAOD

9€-V¥

(€°ee) (Z7°¢) (8£°2) (o°€€) (9°€T) 0T0°0 Z00 °0- T00°0- €00°0 0T0°0

WAS € (4 T 0 t

72GL 93 T79 pofied

9€47°0 = d 89°T = ad ¢2z2°O = 44S 096°0 = zt

F+T)- t O=F (TL°T) (€T°O) (12°Z) (82°S) (ILS . TSY + IdLT + GOTH) "® 23+ €d TZT°O + zd OTO°O- TO 9ST°O - S19°0= = AddiSH ; ¢

SSTITTFISTT [Tefoueuzy ojeAyad uo sjuemAed omoouy

Le-v

“9tS_ 03-1379 porzed

£09°O =o 87°% = Md ZL0°O = aaS 886°0 = 98 To (6T°8) T- (Z°€T) T+ (72°). (19°4) 4p t2Mg-gtSH) £00°O + O71 8€0°O + ZSLANQ 6ET°O + OAdOGV L8Z°0 +

I+ (ETE) oy (8T°S)

gy (06°%) (€T°L) TZLkWd €Z7Z°O + © TZZANG TTY°O +

IZL4Nd 907°O + 70£°0- = ADASH

Sapousse [SPIFJJO USPaios OF SOFIFLFIeF] JuswUIeACS UO SjuswAed ssOIU]

8t-V

9:¢Z 02 T:79 potted 9T°T = ma €61T°O = aaS €9S°0 = 7

(8T°2) (TL°7) (96°2) AdND 9000°O + YddaNd O8E°O + €SZ°O = AMNVUIN

dOg Ut s1susTe10; cope | Sjuouced Jaysusezy s4BATId

6€-V

(€s°s) 760°0

(89°9)

80S °0=-

(T° 42) TEL‘°O

WAS

(78°0) (42°0) (79°S) §(TS*€)

400°0- z00°O0 $z0°0 TZ£0°0 ¥ (6€°z) (z“°z) «(¥z°e) (ET*¥) (69°S) (z9°9) (9T°¥) (TE*z) : ZZ0°O- T#O°O= LS0°0- 890°0- LL0°0- T80°0- z80°0- 080°0-— q (16°z) (92°%) (8°9%) (z0°€) : 60T°O z8T°O 02z°0 -0zz°0 B l 9 ¢ 4 € | 0 t 8QL 03: TZ79 poFsea 749°0 = 9 8L°T = Md €00°0 = gas 666°0 = 4

_ . _ 0=F F’cansowa) Bot Fo OFF, Foecad . aty/ana)001 'a 2 +

€ ra

I- 4. Ot (08°T) T- (69°Z) (28°4) (4)901 “8 Z + OLSWIL T00°O + (° 19)3°01 TS0°O + 6T¥°0— = (d)D01

€ (103@T Jap Uof diosqe) adfig Ip Sseuog

O9-V

(IT°€) (ET*T) (06°T) (OT°E) (ST°T)

66T°0 920°0 94%0°0 090°0 290°0 ¥q (08°6) (SZ°T) (¥E°E) (¥8°6) § (2£6°Z) t. 9T7°0 970°0 280°0 42ZT°O 9ST°0 8

was € 6 T 0 F

yiGL 03 T!79 pofaeg

667°0 = 9 96°T = Md 600°0 = aaSs 766°0 = 64

(FT)~ (aoy907 Fq

c— O=F . - O=F - (60°9) a+ “HU (anowayoor Fe oz + (M901 bye + € € (92°L) (18°)

(ovxa)901 40270 + (Chat “Hny/™ ano)007 684°0-

(96°T) (72°0) (16°0) (L£L°T) _ £0 8500°0 = 2d $z00°0 - Tb 4z700°0 + YEy°0- = (ANDXd) 907

XOPuF eNTBA 4yFUN Spoos 310dxy

9iGL 02 T#79 Potted 7S8°0 = 9 £8°T = Ma c10°O = aas_ .€96°0 = za

I- (s9°Z) (" ‘Idd)501 ZE€°0 +

(79°) (Idd)90T ¥EL°O +

(72°0) (LT°T)

I 2¢2ANd TIO°O + ZSLANG 4TO°O +

(TL°Z) + (12° 4) I- (Z42°€) (24°0O) (94d0d)V 820°0 = ~ (94d0a)V 0S0°O - (° LTMANG)V 9€0°O - S00°O = (‘14NDNd) 901

Xopuf oNTeA J}fuN Spoos yioduz [anj—uoy

cu-V¥

. yiSL 03 T:79 = poFaad €s7°0 = 9 8 =6L°T = MG S00°O = gas 666°O = 54

(92°S) (6°6T) (19°9) (ANDWd) 01 09T°O + (ANDXd)DO1 482°O + 800°0- = (INSDXd)901

Sjiodxa ad;Aias puw spoos °° 103 Xepuy aoTig

hal |

94-V

#3S$Z2 02 T?Z9 potted c9°T = Md 900°O = gas 666°0 = za

(es*€) (90°2) (ANDWd) DOT 866°O + Z00°0 = CINSDWd) 901

Sj10dW, aJfAles pue spoos -S°f]) JO xepuy aed71g

SL 03 T3Z79 porzed EL°T = Ma TEO°T = gas 678°O = 1U

€2°Z) (€€°6) (To°€) (SLTLANG-T) TdOM ZSE°U + SLTLANG +» TdDM L79°0 + NN/T - STE°YT +

(00°Z) (68°Z) (€0° 7) (*zccana + "tzscana) ggo°t + 'Trtaxnay eet’e + '*tzzana Tee’ y- 8) (gt*2) (us*D (22"€)

“ZOLANG €Z7°E + - YO69ANG Z7S°Z + YO69ANG 99L°T - ~ YOLOXNG ESS°E +

(4S°€) (T8°T) (9T°T) (8%°T) (92°2) (28°O) TS9ANG ET6°E= = ZE9AWA Z00°Z — €D BL7°0 — ZdD T29°O = TO SEZ°T + 898°0 = MANIC

3261 O5eM

S9-vV

(y°zT) (Tz°z) (o”'z) (S9°2) (To°e) (9S°€) (7S°%) (997°9) (6°0T) (79°6) (65°) (8S°2) (19°T) T 6S"°0 OT0'0- 61T0°0- L£Z0°0- 7£0°0- 6£0°0- 7¥0°0- L¥0°0- 670°0- 670°0- 670°0- L70°0- €70°0-°

(00° 6)

(¥Z°0) (Z2°0) (Lz7°T) (€T"S) (28°8) (27°47) T c67°0

co0'0- 200°0 9£0°0 €80°O LvT°O 8zc°0 4

(s9°€) (IT°T) (T2°T) (yE°T) (TS*T) (92°T) (¥T*Z) (yL°Z) (ZS°€) (87°€) (6E°2) (SS°T) (so°T) | Z6z°0 900°0 T10°0 9T0°0 0z0°0 9Z0°0 £Z0°0 620°0 TE0°O z£0°0 z£0°O ze0°O TEO°O #

whs TT oT 6 8 L 9 S 9 £ (4 T 0

- 2¢L 02 T2279 Potted

zt°c = MG €00°O = 44S 466°0 = ¥ 4

t- eo. #, OF

((d*dOd) /MN)30T “9 = +

I- 7, OTF f- 1. O7F (0v°S) (6%°6T) (aoa/ato01 a 3+ °° (a/m)80T “@ 3% + ANIL 700°0 - 877°L = (d0d/a1) SOT Ss TT Qo10J 1OQBT

99-V

(€€°9) (66°T) 992°T T80°0was 4

sIs'0 =d

*° (CINSOWd/(ADASH - AASW) + (INSDXd/AASDX-dNY) ) 30TY Fe i+ 9

(9¢°T)

(62°72) (9€°4) (96°9) (06'S) t S9T*0- TSZ°0- 6££°0- 0€7°0- B € (4 T 0 F 7i¢Z 03 Ti29 potted L8°T = Md $000°0 = das cT8°O = za

O=F

(Z0°2) (60°€) (2@2°T)

((OO0T*dOd) /A'1)30T 847°O + OLENIL 700°O - LOAWIL ZO00°O + TLS*E-

Ly-¥

(INSYNd/(ADASH - AASW) + INSDXd/AASX - dND) /F1*HT) 301

pedo{dug 10qe7

(92°) (9Z°T) (@2°2) (ZT°€) (65°) (E€L°E) (€0°2) G07°0 9Z0°0 Z2#0°0 S90°0 080°0 060°0 60°0 q

(L0°€) (90°€) (90°€) (90°) t 79Z°0 470°O 880°0 ZET°0 eB was c 4 € Z T 0 t . #3¢Z 01 [379 pofied

819°0 = 9 79°T = Md 700°O = 4aS g0S°O = 4¥

2 ¥* (a1/ (INSOWd/(ADKSH - AXSK) +

0=T O=7 . °

- ge°e) (470°O)

INSDXd/AASX-dN9) ) 901 fa z+! (M/d) 901 Fe og + OLANIL 858 - 700°O = (H1) 9OT ¢ v4

peyI0A Ssanoy UeW 10qe7

(OT°Z) ¢9T‘0-

(LT°6) (€6°8) (08°8) ct9°0 }=60T°0-)—s SLT“ 0-

wos TT oT

(8T°S) (€9°2) (8°7T)

980°0- €70°0 Z9T°O c 9 € 61S°0 = 9d €¢°T = MG 0=F

(19°8) (7€°8) (06°L) gIz°0- T€Z°0- €TZ°0- =F 6 8 L t (6°71) (6°TT) (7°TT) Tee°O ~=30r'rtcTeS*O-=—sC«CT9Z*OCB Z T 0 t 72GL 03 T?79 Potted 910°0 = aS 008°0 =

I- t (46°77) (27°0) (4ND) 307 “@ | + LOAWIL 700°0 - LIZ°O = (ND) 30T

dyel UoFIezt [Tan Ajroedey

(9°€s) (Z7°T) (79°T) (S6°T) £S8°0 720°0 6€0°0 870°0 bd

WS TT OT 6 t

(1S°z) (92°€) (6E°E) (2£8°Z) (49°%) (€0°E) (80°) (L¥°%) (€z°E) ZS0°0 S$S0°O0 960°0 650°0 S90°O Z220°0 $60°O0 %72T°O Z9T°O eB

8 lL 9 S v7] € c T 0 }

GZ 03 T?79 POFte.

Lgs°O0 = 9 L£S°T = Md €00°O = das 766°O = 7— - 7 OF oe ($£"0) (19°T) (8°29) (MN/d * 9)901 “@ 2% + (" GIY)901 $00°O - (GLY)901 ZT0°O - SSL°c- = (MN/W9) 907 _TI- ;

Kouaiind 103 pureed

0s-¥

(€*zT) (B8E°T) (8S°T) (76°) (z79°Z) (56°) (1S°6) (Tz°z) (S6°0) 879°0 ZE0°0 860°O0 Z2L0°0 060°O0 260°O 9860°0 £60°0 Z80°0 q

(¥T°Z) (es°z) (89°2) (ZT°Z) §=(TL°0) t 790 °0- ¢z0°0- TE0°O0— 6T0°0- ZT0°O B Wns lL 9 S 9 € Z T 0 t 72GL 93 [279 potted L€6°0 = 0 SS°T = Md £00°0 = gaS 9T8°0 = zi

(FT) ~( (wt/(AINSOW + AINSOX-jgno))907°4 °F"+ l (41)- 5 OF (€0°€) (OT°T) (Z°LT) (aza)o01 *e 2 + ('Isu)9071 €0°0 - (TSu)901 OTO°O - 9ET°Z- = (MN/ad)D07

€ S}psodep pueusp XoZ¥ pueweq

1s-¥

(8°9T) (€6°T) = (29°) (92° 7): (2°TD) (07° 2) (€0°€) T9E°T 920°0O S¥T°O. 802 °0: 79Z°u €TE°O 9S€°0 B

WAS S vi € (4 T 0 F

yiGL 92 T?79 porrzed

886°0 =9 G¢°T = wd 8600°O = gas $98°0 = zt [= i O=F CAN / (AINSDN-AINSDX“AdND)) DOT “8 I + ¢ (T9°Z)

(MN/(AINSSW + AINSOX - AaNO)) 907 . qONANd 4T0°0 +

(SS°€) (78°0) (94° T) MN/OYGON OVE*YT - (49N)D0T 0Z0°O + (* TS4)D01 TzZ0°0-

(19°) I- -(06°T) = (ST°9) (1S¥)901 190°0 - (° d9TH)90T $80°O — T80°T- = (MN/ (QOH-GL) )901

Sa};sodap suf a qj-uou 10; pusued

a-v

€s-vV

72GZ 92 T?Z9 Ppofted

699°0 = 9 60°2 = Md $z0°O = gas L£16°0 = zt

(29°Z) (€° TT) (6Z°€) (ST°T) (TSU>SOT ¥1Z°O + (SU)DO1 LS8°O + (MN/GON)D01 €40°O + 9TT°O = (G9U)D0T

S}}Sodep su; JO Saze0};J}IAI00 oTqeyjoseU osAe] UO o}e1 JSai10}U]

92¢Z 92 [3:79 papaeg S659 = ¢ 06°T = ma S00°O = aaS 6SS°0 * 54

A9L°T) (2S°T) (GOW - GL + dd)/(AVOO - deddI) $£0°O + (GOW - GL + “aq) /aav 890°T-

(Ze °T) (T0°€) OUARaY $00°0 - * (ON ~ aL +. Gd) (UCN ¢ 069°0=

w+ (OT°+) T+ (Z€°€) 0d0dV 8TO° 0- + LUNG STO°O +

(6T°T) (92°T) (se° 0) (Sy°T) (OT° D- Mrzz ana $00°O = €0200°0 + ZdT00°0 + Toz00° 0 - 800°0- = (OK - dL + aq) /doKV

83 }s0dep MF} JO S9IBOFTIIa9 aTqeyjoseu esieT go AyTddng

9S-V

a y2GL 03 1:79 POTied 6.9029 i8°T= sa. _ .TOEO = Fas _ — 6@8°0 = 8

(97°%) = — qe, (090) GQN/du 8SL°SZT - qaN/ (TVS GL + IVWSd VY SQW) SZ0°L -

(28°0) (sz) (g8°T) 7 (v0) (ano -na ) V vEL°eT + Ga 092°0 + aan/* “LTAANGV 7SB8° HL + T7ZaAwa SET°O +

(6T°T) (S¥7°Z) (oT°0) (9€ °Z) (6€°0) (8T°Z) TZLAGN 7S€°O - d4AWd S68°O - €0 Z10°6 + rAe) zee’o - Td 780° 0 - ¥00°T = TSu

ee BIAIVS9I VaIJ AOF pueusg

SS-V

(4°etD)) = (s8°Z))— ss CT6*Z) = (86°Z) = (L0°€) zOT°t TeE0°O O0s0°0 090°0 £90°0 ¥

(8z°T) r

%€7°0- B was It OT 6 g * t

(6T°€) (sere) (62°) (79°) (26°S) (95°9) (22°S) (98°) I £90°0 €90°0 990°0 920°0 760°0 czT°O ZLT*O 8€z°0 q

(69°€) = (60°C) «= (ZZ7°T) = CAL T) t OVT°O- €9T°0- 040°0- 6€T°O e

L 9 S$: 9 £ (4 T 0 ¥ 73SfL 03 T2779 potted 6z€°O = 9 c6°T = Md T8Tt°O = ads 086°0 = 14

~—

O=F . O=F

Foy Fa 2 + Cpvansa - Isa) Fe 24 TT € T (8S°T) z+ (S0°Z) i+ (76°72) (97 °Z)

“TdOM 820°O + ““IZLANG €TY°O - “IZLANG Z2S°O - ZSLAWG 6Z4°0 +

- ($z°z) (86°T) (TL°Z) (IT°T) (€T°T) OAdOdV 764%°O + DAdOAdV C8E°O + ZOLANG €84°O + OUYANG €20°O + 9LZ7°O = TU

spuoq A3}TFaN Vwy JO Sense}; Mou UO 0381 JS0laqU]

9S-V

(Z°TT) €0S°0

(09°€~) 9TZ°0-

(78°0) 09T*0

wos

(97°0) ($8°0) (42°2) (1Z°8) (€0°2) (98°€)

500°0 1zo"O) = 890°0 = 880°0 Ss ETO z0z"0 ¥y (66°%) = (To"”)- (use) ~—(6z°0) ; SL0°0- 460°0--— S90°0= Ss Tz0°0 q (g0°€) (ste) (96%) (6HZ) =~ (9H) =~ (960) : gt0"0 «ss 0f0"0-~—Ss«S£0°0 S00 8z0°0 ¢T0°0 8 co Y ee 0 ‘3

72GL 03 T2Z9 pofted

72GL 93 TéZ9 pofasd

to°z = md GZT°O = aaS 196°0 = 54 Frisy 's 34+ ¢ _ a a O=T *cavansu-tsu) Fq 2 + FC taom . oan Fe 2 + yrosoana € ¢ (ss*z) (96°C) 5 (82°T) (ye°Z) ay

OSE°O + YOL9ANG 80S°O + DadOGV SSZ°O + DadOGV 9TE°O + TZLANG

(TZ7°t ) oF (9T°Z )

zeyo- oF

I (7€°Z) (S€°e) (Z°LT) TZZanNd TTE°O —

“ZOLANG ZIE°O + ZOLANG 6¥y°O + LOS*Z = OTH

spuoq quamuisA0s Wi9d}—SuoT Uo 39381 4891940

LSs-V

(9°2T) (TL°€) (Zz°4) (6€°S) — (€6°6) (7°?) (9€°0) 846°T $Sz°O eTy*O €L4°0 9€4°0 TOE °0 020°0 B

was S 7 € Z T 0 F

73¢Z 03 [379 pofied 92°T = Md 6€L°T = Fas £s8°0 = 74

(F42)~ (4 aagay ° HA + T600S°Z + STIEZ°O + 7 OF AdNDOV - 19D . 9ETE°O © 9EVT°O + AdNDOV - ga - LEGOO°T - 9729°0) ® gt

(86°0) (S°€T) (8T°O) (€9°T) (69°T) (29°2) (ADX)V 190°O + DIGANG €20°S + €0 Z9T°O + ZO EOT°T + TOSEZ°T + Z89°T = JIAd

ANA JUSUISOAUF JOSIP “S° uF asueYyD

gc-V

($°ZT) (6°OT) (T°TT) (#°TT) (Z°TT) (Z2°O0T) (242°) 7000°0O ¢0000°0 80000°0 60000°0 80000°O 90000°0 z0000°0 t

(Z6°T) (86°T) (90°%) (£T°Z) (Zz°Z) (99°) (S€*0) r T00°0- T000°0- Z000°0-: €000°0- z000°0- Z000°0- $0000°0- q (0°S) (4s°€) (€z°€) (90°) (Tz) (ze*z) (S40) : Z00°0 Z000°0 £000°0 ¥000°0 000°0 €000°0 20000°0 8 was” ¢ 1 € 7 2 T 0 t

72SZ2 93 T79 potted - 66°T = Md 686°0 = 4aS TEs8°O = zt

( (oxaand-T) e MN ((a4)901 - (ANDXda/ANDXd)901)) V Lr) z+

ovr | O=F (y2*2) q : + (+ Laren - Tad) V te oz + AOXV S90°O + Ss

(FH+HD~ (awn . gotayy F

(L0°Z) I+ (82 °2) It (0z°2) (00°8) ZOLAWG 661°Z~ ~ TS9ANG 90€°Z + § TIS9AWG O€7°Z —- 614°T = DdLIC

SUTBTD [TepoUeUTS Wisj—-Suo, up esueyo

6S-¥

(€9°€) (78°T) (IT°Z) (6S°Z) (9¢°€) (IT°S) (6€°€) r ¥000°0 €0000°0 90000°0 40000°0 80000°0 60000°0 —60000°0 2

(L0°€) (96°T) (IT°Z) (Z€°Z) (LS$°Z) (1S°Z) (99°T) t 400°0- €€000°0- 4S000°0- 22000°0- 82000°0= S$Z000°0= £9000°0- q (70°) (Z6°€) (98°€) (89°€) (9T°€) (8Z°T) (Z€°0) t T00°0 TZ000°O ¥£€000°0 L€000°0 Z€000°0 8T000°0 +40000°0- B was c ¥ € Zz T 0- F

72GL 92 T2779 potted 00°2 = Md 862°2 = Gas £88°0 = zt

F-((oxaand - T) » MN ((34)901 - (ANDXad/ANDXa)

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Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1979, June 30). The U.S. Sector of the Multi-Country Model and Its Mulipliers. Ifdp, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/ifdp_1979-146

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_ifdp_1979_146,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {The U.S. Sector of the Multi-Country Model and Its Mulipliers},
  year = {1979},
  month = {Jun},
  howpublished = {Ifdp, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/ifdp_1979-146},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}